Bharat Rakshak

Muppalla wrote:Does anyone has similar chart for Orissa Assembly polls?

One Oriya person told me many voted for BJD at state level and BJP at national level so Patnaik retains state while BJP gets good MP seats (may be 60:40 ratio towards BJD)

https://newsnation2018.s3.ap-south-1.am ... Odisha.jpg

TRS and BJD are dark horses in that they haven't publicly pledged support to either Cong/MGB or BJP. So they are swing voters whose help BJP can take in crunch times, like it happened in current govt. And Jagan was also leaning towards BJP. In that sense, almost all states have some sort of support to NDA, barring Kerala of course. If BJP manages to win Thiruvananthapuram and/or one more seat, that would mean pan-Indian support to BJP from almost all major states

SandeepA wrote:...
https://static.toiimg.com/photo/imgsize ... 404458.jpg

Any clues on why there was a huge uptick in voting in MP? Congi votebase which was depressed in 2014 coming back out to vote? :lungi_shibber:

i would beleive the satta bazar more than exit polls...but modi hi aayega... looks IAF is celebrating exit polls...i hear lot of buzz in the air today after a long time...

Welcome back Dilbu.
You were missed here.
I saw you in the Balakot thread.

looks like the markets, at least the Indian markets, like Modi.

Not so sure about the goras though.

Domestic financial markets cheered exit poll results showed that ruling NDA is likely to will the general Lok Sabha elections on Monday, with the benchmark BSE Sensex skyrocketing over 900 points, and the rupee appreciating 79 paise against the US dollar.

After soaring over 962 in early session, the 30-share index pared some gains and was trading 687.63 points, or 1.81 percent, higher at 38,618.40.

In similar movement, the broader NSE Nifty was trading 203.05 points, or 1.78 percent, up at 11,610.20.

After the polling concluded last evening, the media was abuzz with exit polls which predicted a second term for Prime Minister Modi.

While half the ‘liberals’ of the country were visibly upset and fanning the fear that they won’t get to eat beef ever again, others were busy writing obituaries for Congress.


Like psephologist-who-usually-gets-it-wrong, Yogendra Yadav.

The Congress must die.
If it could not stop the BJP in this election to save the idea of India, this party has no positive role in Indian history. Today it represents the single biggest obstacle to creation of an alternative.

My reaction to @sardesairajdeep https://t.co/IwlmBmf75d

— Yogendra Yadav (@_YogendraYadav) May 19, 2019

imo the BJP Odisha plan is same as WB but peaceful rise ... if BJD has no second line after Navin babu, then slowly it can be absorbed and top leaders defect into BJP....some have moved on .... slowly the BJD will become the BJP...just one alphabet needs to change. messaging, front ends etc can remain the same.

the spoilt prince who is #2 in TMC (nephew) I dont think will be able to control things but its different case because didi is quite young, so waiting game wont work.

Report from Dera Mahab Ali:

The sample size of the exit poll is ridiculously low. Manorama-Karvy polled 10 to 11 voters per booth, 7 booths per assembly constituency, totalling around 500 voters per LS constituency, ie 10K total sample size. This sample size is on the higher side of the national polls.

They claim to have done an anonymous vote on a tab, ie the pollster doesn't see the voter voting.

They predict UDF:13 LDF:2 and "Photo Finish, ie margin < 2%" in 5, out of which one (Trivandrum) favors BJP and 2 each for UDF and LDF. Surprisingly, K Surendran at Pathanamthitta is at No 2.

All polls except News18 predicts UDF wave with one BJP.

So, following UBCN, I am revising my call. UDF: 14 LDF:4 BJP:2 (I am still with Surendran)

Now.. responding/commenting on various KL points discussed earlier:

Dilbu: ഇജ്ജെവടെ പോയി കെടക്കാര്ന്ന് പഹയാ!!
RaGa @ Wayanad: He will win. It is a UDF bastion, and he do have the novelty factor. He will retain it if he wins at Amethi.

Now... the question of how to build vote base: The ONLY way to influence a voter here in KL is to make him want/obligated to vote for you. One would want to vote (in LS elections) for:

1. The guys who help you in your need. The guys who help solve your problems.
2. The guys from your community/caste/religion etc
3. The guys who come and ask nicely for your vote, if you are in a class where you do not really care about 1 and 2
4. The medium picture. The candidate and the constituency.
5. The big picture. Governance, public policy, national security and all those things.

Counting the number of votes, line 1 carries the brutal majority, and weighs over everything else. That is where the commies score way above everyone else. I will tell you my experience.

The commies come to my house like every couple of months with notice/pamphlet of some programs etc. They keep in touch. They visibly take care of issues. Congies almost never make home visits, but put up flex/sign etc to keep visible.

No one showed up seeking vote for NDA. NO ONE!! Yindoos tend to make echo chambers, own fiefdoms, choir groups and preach to them. I have relatives active in both Sangh Parivar orgs and non sangh orgs (NSS). The only thing they do effectively is to split the organization when there is a disagreement.

If you want to be successful, you must be like Tequila Farmers.The Agave plant takes upto 12 years to mature and harvest. Till that time, it is all effort and no return. The name "swayamsevak" need to be used literally and work with ALL PEOPLE, irrespective of your vote bank or not. Then, in a decade, you will have a reliable vote bank.

how come none of this complex 5 point formula is not a must in other states which have far more needy people than KL?

is it because BJP has more boots on the ground in other states ?

I suspect just like Didi has done. various govt and quasi-govt contract schemes are used to keep cadres on the public payroll and give them income. and thats the army that moves around. if people had other jobs, they would not have so much time.

Dileep wrote:Report from Dera Mahab Ali:
Now... the question of how to build vote base: The ONLY way to influence a voter here in KL is to make him want/obligated to vote for you. One would want to vote (in LS elections) for:

1. The guys who help you in your need. The guys who help solve your problems.
2. The guys from your community/caste/religion etc
3. The guys who come and ask nicely for your vote, if you are in a class where you do not really care about 1 and 2
4. The medium picture. The candidate and the constituency.
5. The big picture. Governance, public policy, national security and all those things.

Counting the number of votes, line 1 carries the brutal majority, and weighs over everything else. That is where the commies score way above everyone else. I will tell you my experience.

Completely agree with (1) keep in continuous touch with people explain their view, understand their problems and evolve solutions. Only way to build a vote bank. NDA needs to emulate the CCP in this respect.

if BJP wins big in KA, then JDS and INC will quit infighting and agree to let the run govt run its course and keep looting amicably.
if they dissolved assembly and repolled now, may get a crushing blow.

chetak wrote:After the polling concluded last evening, the media was abuzz with exit polls which predicted a second term for Prime Minister Modi.

While half the ‘liberals’ of the country were visibly upset and fanning the fear that they won’t get to eat beef ever again, others were busy writing obituaries for Congress.


Like psephologist-who-usually-gets-it-wrong, Yogendra Yadav.

The Congress must die.
If it could not stop the BJP in this election to save the idea of India, this party has no positive role in Indian history. Today it represents the single biggest obstacle to creation of an alternative.

My reaction to @sardesairajdeep https://t.co/IwlmBmf75d

— Yogendra Yadav (@_YogendraYadav) May 19, 2019

The "grand old" party is a relic they should have jettisoned the nehru family long back. Also people should stop saying Gandhi family.they are not Gandhis.

Singha wrote:if BJP wins big in KA, then JDS and INC will quit infighting and agree to let the run govt run its course and keep looting amicably.
if they dissolved assembly and repolled now, may get a crushing blow.

if BJP wins big in KA, they will pull the jds govt down in a few months time and form their own.

many unhappy scammers are willing to quit both the jds as well as the congis because they have no direct access to the moolah.

But once a rogue, always a rogue and so where will these greedy turncoats find a place with a chap like AS running the show.

Each of them is expecting a huge payout as well as a cabinet berth.

Dileep wrote:Report from Dera Mahab Ali:

The sample size of the exit poll is ridiculously low. Manorama-Karvy polled 10 to 11 voters per booth, 7 booths per assembly constituency, totalling around 500 voters per LS constituency, ie 10K total sample size. This sample size is on the higher side of the national polls.

They claim to have done an anonymous vote on a tab, ie the pollster doesn't see the voter voting.

They predict UDF:13 LDF:2 and "Photo Finish, ie margin < 2%" in 5, out of which one (Trivandrum) favors BJP and 2 each for UDF and LDF. Surprisingly, K Surendran at Pathanamthitta is at No 2.

All polls except News18 predicts UDF wave with one BJP.

So, following UBCN, I am revising my call. UDF: 14 LDF:4 BJP:2 (I am still with Surendran)

Now.. responding/commenting on various KL points discussed earlier:

Dilbu: ഇജ്ജെവടെ പോയി കെടക്കാര്ന്ന് പഹയാ!!
RaGa @ Wayanad: He will win. It is a UDF bastion, and he do have the novelty factor. He will retain it if he wins at Amethi.

Now... the question of how to build vote base: The ONLY way to influence a voter here in KL is to make him want/obligated to vote for you. One would want to vote (in LS elections) for:

1. The guys who help you in your need. The guys who help solve your problems.
2. The guys from your community/caste/religion etc
3. The guys who come and ask nicely for your vote, if you are in a class where you do not really care about 1 and 2
4. The medium picture. The candidate and the constituency.
5. The big picture. Governance, public policy, national security and all those things.

Counting the number of votes, line 1 carries the brutal majority, and weighs over everything else. That is where the commies score way above everyone else. I will tell you my experience.

The commies come to my house like every couple of months with notice/pamphlet of some programs etc. They keep in touch. They visibly take care of issues. Congies almost never make home visits, but put up flex/sign etc to keep visible.

No one showed up seeking vote for NDA. NO ONE!! Yindoos tend to make echo chambers, own fiefdoms, choir groups and preach to them. I have relatives active in both Sangh Parivar orgs and non sangh orgs (NSS). The only thing they do effectively is to split the organization when there is a disagreement.

If you want to be successful, you must be like Tequila Farmers.The Agave plant takes upto 12 years to mature and harvest. Till that time, it is all effort and no return. The name "swayamsevak" need to be used literally and work with ALL PEOPLE, irrespective of your vote bank or not. Then, in a decade, you will have a reliable vote bank.

The BJP in kerala makes itself felt through sister RSS organisations in the state like sevabharati for example but I feel the leadership needs to motivate the BJP cadres who are ruthlessly hunted by CPM goons and mafia of the Christian Congress party .
CPM bastions include SFI lead local universities . The work needs to start right there from colleges and universities percolating to community level through temples and awareness programs and health promotions. The Nair ,ezhava and lower castes have one thing in common , they all go to temples. I do feel the BJP needs to own hindhutva here.any crime against them should come on a backdrop of attack on religion. If the muslims can do it why not them. Granted it will cause polarisation but it's good to get started.

That is the Sucess of CPI(M) and INC, kill one BJP cadre and 1000 are afraid, the man who did the first murder is one the state CM, plus they have funding networks from Gulf and Abroad, infact they deliberately suppress industries in Kerala so that cheap labour is available in the Gulf to work in the sun for 50 hours a week for thier skyscrapers, and best they these labours pay upfront agency commission which is shared with thier gulf employers.

It is a vicous system and not easy to break, but the BIF networks need to be broken up if there is to be progress in these areas.

Aditya_V wrote:That is the Sucess of CPI(M) and INC, kill one BJP cadre and 1000 are afraid, the man who did the first murder is one the state CM, plus they have funding networks from Gulf and Abroad, infact they deliberately suppress industries in Kerala so that cheap labour is available in the Gulf to work in the sun for 50 hours a week for thier skyscrapers, and best they these labours pay upfront agency commission which is shared with thier gulf employers.

It is a vicous system and not easy to break, but the BIF networks need to be broken up if there is to be progress in these areas.

That is interesting. The proud Mallu refuses to do any sort of physical labour in their own state but are willing to do any sort of work once outside the country. But mallus numbers in the gulf are coming down significantly as more opt for western countries. Follow the money.Gulf remittances will go down as crude prices go down and alternative energy sources hit their prime. Outside of oil money the gulf has nothing much to offer.

Mallus are hardworking, it is the deliberate communist system is Kerala which does not allow unloading of bags in day time which deliberately destroys business. Labourers used to complain 400 beds for 4000 workers and the Kicthen staff is so short of manpower, that in the Sambhar prepared for them, no one cuts the vegetables, it is just dropped in whole.

Some 2004 Exit Poll results, for the wildly popular and seemingly unstoppable NDA Juggernaut under Shri Vajpayee ji.

NDA Congress+ Others
Average of exit polls 255 183 105
Final Result [187 219 137

And we know where that got us.

Hence Proved #MWLO

sajo21 wrote:Some 2004 Exit Poll results, for the wildly popular and seemingly unstoppable NDA Juggernaut under Shri Vajpayee ji.

NDA Congress+ Others
Average of exit polls 255 183 105
Final Result [187 219 137

And we know where that got us.

Hence Proved #MWLO

Who came up with those figures?

Karthik S wrote: Who came up with those figures?

Average of Exit polls conducted by Aajtak-ORGMARG, rNDTV-AC Neil Sen, (be)Sahara DRS, Star News- CVoter, ZeeNews-Taleem, back in 2004.

Source

Gurus,

Planning a party on the 23rd as counting continues. I checked out the EC site, I could not get information on what time initial results are expected?

Also any recommendation on channels that have least amount of shouting/talking over one another?

NDA/BJP is going to lose onleeeee

nachiket wrote:

abhijitm wrote: Very close contest. Most likely win for RG.

Even PP who is predicting 300 for BJP alone said Pappu was winning in Amethi.

I am counting on close contest. If it is so close then result are difficult to predict.

Really amazing if SI pulls this off.

hnair wrote:Dilbu, that lethal clout of CPI-M is not state wide as in WB. It is there in Kannur, Kasargode and to an extent Alapuzha.

But unfortunately it this lethal gang of thugs from North Malabar who actually runs the show in Kerala now. I get a strong feeling that this gang has also managed to create & maintain sub-groups in pretty much every state organ (mainly the police) in Kerala. So much so that the sensible leaders (like Suresh Kurup) from Central and South Kerala have all been marginalised.

The hyena pack that is his own party is already licking its chops and figuring out how to replace him ASAP.

Perhaps this is where we should have some smart IB officers play a role . Make this North Malabar gang of thugs start fighting each other. Any way all of them have a murdereous mentality (which is said to be prevalent in Northern Kerala), so let them finish off each other. I don't know if it is MK Dhar or Ajit Doval who managed to split the other wise united Naga rebels into seven different groups, constantly at each other's throat . CPI(M) having a say in Kerala, is going to cause long term damage to the state, mainly in terms of national security. We must know that Kerala has seen the maximum number of folks joining ISIS; and all of them were 100% literate, rich and well educated. The state government machinery is pretty poor in dealing with the Islamic terror threat. With strong rumours that the Islamists have formed their own parallel "intelligence" group within the police system. I don't think the CPI(M) leadership in general, and from North Kerala in particular have any sense to appreciate matters of national security etc.

Singha wrote:is it true congi will get wiped in KL this time and Left will gain 10+

Rather, it would be the other way round. The Congies are expected to gain more seats than the commies. And any way, even if commies do win ultimately they are going to be licking the boots of the Congies (in the Parliament).

Julian_Bashir wrote:Gurus,

Planning a party on the 23rd as counting continues. I checked out the EC site, I could not get information on what time initial results are expected?

Also any recommendation on channels that have least amount of shouting/talking over one another?

Please wait until 23 May afternoon, only then true picture will come.

Saamna the shiv sena paper has mocked CBN asking why is the man still exhausting himself flying around meeting leaders.
Akhilesh has postponed his trip to delhi
Stalin says there is no opposition leaders meeting on may21 (or atleast he does not intend to attend)
Akhilesh and Maya have met in lucknow

imo the image of Namo in the saffron cloak .... change that to brown and eerily like Obi wan kenobi in his older years watching Luke grow up , teaching him and finally telling him his destiny. Namo HAS to prepare a strong second line of Padawans (future Jedi) and induct them into the ways of the Force, how to sense the shatterpoints, how to smell out Sith, mastery of the ins and outs of the whole Chakravyuha that only he like Arjuna knows ...

when history is written a 100 years from now, perhaps him preparing the next generation to take over and lead India on its destined path to P1 may be equally or more important than his own stint . it cannot be left to chance.



there are dharmic anakins and lukes out there somewhere...small, alone, poor....but with fate marking them for big things. our task to build a repeatable system to id and let them rise to the top in each generation

What is the solution for mad person Mammta Di ? She is danger for national security.

Could we have a list of people who made wierd promises like "if he/she wins, I will quit the politics". Siddhu and Bihari are on record.

her fate is perhaps sealed. she is going to face a lot of pain culminating in a possible overthrow in the next state election.

the major TMC financial networks and criminal front ends will be taken apart if NDA wins.

sajo21 wrote:Some 2004 Exit Poll results, for the wildly popular and seemingly unstoppable NDA Juggernaut under Shri Vajpayee ji.

NDA Congress+ Others
Average of exit polls 255 183 105
Final Result [187 219 137

And we know where that got us.

Hence Proved #MWLO

Yeah saw that. Gulp.

UlanBatori wrote:Time to send Reuters along with RaGa on that boat to London

With 240 cases against him, K Surendran of the BJP tops the list of candidates with the most outstanding criminal complaints that include rioting, criminal trespass and attempted murder.

Strange, not a single word of RG AND mother being out on bail. Just like BBC, write political obituary but NO mention of bail!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-42364151

Karan M wrote:
Yeah saw that. Gulp.

the kicker then was INC sweeping AP and its ally sweeping TN. I was there on that horrible day.

now all that is factored in, as only modest numbers expected from TN and nothing from AP.

the margin of victory depends now on UP and WB. I guess the rest of it has reasonable levels of confidence.

people are all over the place on UP - some say 30, some say 65.

One major diff between KL and some other places is, in KL people vote for whom their mind says. A lot of other places, it is still whom the sirpanch/village elder/employer/local neta says.

To paraphrase a well known saying, you don't get votes by getting killed by the other party or killing their cadre in return. You get votes by making people obligated.

Now.. read that again... GETTING PEOPLE OBLIGATED. There are n number of ways to do it.

K Surendran (personally) got a number of people obligated by standing up for Lord Ayyappan and going to jail for that.

BJP writes to Madhya Pradesh Governor asking for special assembly session, says Congress government in minority

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/yo ... _top_pos_3

ally turned turncoat sacked by yogi

Singha wrote:BJP writes to Madhya Pradesh Governor asking for special assembly session, says Congress government in minority

Was expecting it next monday.

Lisa wrote:

UlanBatori wrote:Time to send Reuters along with RaGa on that boat to London

Strange, not a single word of RG AND mother being out on bail. Just like BBC, write political obituary but NO mention of bail!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-42364151

Lisaji, to be fair to the biased PeePeeSee, the article is dated from Dec 2017. They were not out on bail at that time.

Karan M wrote:

sajo21 wrote:Some 2004 Exit Poll results, for the wildly popular and seemingly unstoppable NDA Juggernaut under Shri Vajpayee ji.
And we know where that got us.
Hence Proved #MWLO

Yeah saw that. Gulp.

Yes Exitpolls mostly tend to be wrong(probably will be the case in 2019 as well) as seen in the election outcomes for many states in last 5 years in India post Modi.

However that 2004 figure by sajo ji is most probably quoting opinion polls vs outcome.Not exit polls vs outcome.

Exitpolls in 2004 predicted UPA victory which matched reality.Opinion polls preelection predicted NDA victory which turned out to be "india shining" fiasco.

Singha wrote:BJP writes to Madhya Pradesh Governor asking for special assembly session, says Congress government in minority

Hope that they don't accept politically suspect turncoats into the new government. Important to have more states under the belt, but long term having good people is more important.

Ok KNS Dhotishibber has turned back to base thanks to data shared by LNS Lilo and SNS Singha. Whew.