Right on, as they say "If you owe a million to the bank, the bank owns you. If you owe 100 million to the bank, you own the bank"Suppiah wrote:GOI should try and tie up these investments in long gestation, long term projects so that the incentive to pull out when there is trouble with our western neighbour, for religious solidarity is not there...
Well, MMS already refused to Jama Masjid refurbishment which came directly from the King. So I guess your point remains to be seen. And just fyi, saudi's dont believe in Sufism, they are salafi. Sufi's reject most of salafi ideology.devesh wrote:the news of these "investments" scares me a little. with the mercantile mentality reigning supreme, GoI will justify anything and everything in the name of "development". the huge investments could be used to justify further concessions to Islamists...Manmohan shaking hands with as-Sudais, setting up an all new mega-Sufi center in Hyderabad, etc...
shyamd ji, I've noticed a fair degree of subtle co-operation between Sufi orgs here in the US and Saudi money and resource trails. There is always some mutual criticism, but it doesn't seem to hinder practical cooperation whenever needed. The Naqshbandi Sufis that stand behind Imam Rabbani (Sheikh Ahmad Sirhindi) are particularly inclined to connive with Salafis, even though they chide one another. One Naqshbandi Sufi I know openly said that while the Salafis need to relax a little, it is Allah's plan that for the time being a Salafi wave is spreading, in order to purify the Ummah of non-Islamic influences.shyamd wrote:And just fyi, saudi's dont believe in Sufism, they are salafi. Sufi's reject most of salafi ideology.
Iranian and Indian private banks may open branches in each other’s countries in the near future to facilitate trade, Fars reported, citing Mehdi Nabizadeh, Tehran’s ambassador to New Delhi Nabizadeh didn’t identify the banks, the state-run news agency said. The news service also didn’t say if the moves were intended to facilitate payments from India for oil imports from Iran. India cleared months of overdue debt to Iran earlier this month when it paid the Persian Gulf country $5 billion for oil shipments. Indian refiners said banks were unwilling to transfer payments for oil purchases because of international sanctions against Iran over the country’s nuclear program.
Its definitely a possibility, but these guys see sufi's as non muslim and provide funds usually to salafi organisations - who they call peaceful. The terrorists are takfiri - not salafi although the mainstream media confuses with the term salafi.Carl wrote: shyamd ji, I've noticed a fair degree of subtle co-operation between Sufi orgs here in the US and Saudi money and resource trails. There is always some mutual criticism, but it doesn't seem to hinder practical cooperation whenever needed. The Naqshbandi Sufis that stand behind Imam Rabbani (Sheikh Ahmad Sirhindi) are particularly inclined to connive with Salafis, even though they chide one another. One Naqshbandi Sufi I know openly said that while the Salafis need to relax a little, it is Allah's plan that for the time being a Salafi wave is spreading, in order to purify the Ummah of non-Islamic influences.
Agreed.My suggestion has always been that Indians need to invade the "Sufi" space more in order to combat this connivance and challenge the fundamental links that create this nexus. Once the fundamental ideas that underlie that philosophy are exposed and challenged, this symbiotic connivance can not only be stopped, but be reversed, attracting potential intelligent minds or spiritual seekers from within Moslem communities and bringing them into the light.
Business hour: Saudi ‘Twitter’ Prince meets Mukesh, TataJEDDAH: A high-level Saudi delegation led by Commerce and Industry Minister Tawfiq Al-Rabiah to leave for India on Tuesday to explore prospects of expanding business and investment cooperation between the two Asian economic giants.
Abdul Rahman Al-Rabiah, president of the Saudi-Indian Business Council, said the 50-member delegation would take part in the Saudi-Indian Joint Business Council meeting, which begins in New Delhi on Tuesday.
"It's an important delegation as decision makers of 35 Saudi companies will be in the team," Abdul Rahman Al-Rabiah said. The delegates are renowned businessmen in the fields of economy, trade, industry and engineering, he added.
The Council of Saudi Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the umbrella organization for Saudi businessmen and women from all parts of the Kingdom, is sponsoring the visit.
Abdul Rahman Al-Rabiah said the team, while exploring new investment opportunities in India, would also try to identify new areas of cooperation between the two countries. India is Saudi Arabia's fifth largest trading partner and its trade investment in the Kingdom is estimated at $2 billion.
The bilateral trade volume, which is in favor of the Kingdom, reached $21 billion in 2010. India has been consuming 20 percent of its oil requirements from the Kingdom for the past 15 years. The value of Indian exports to Saudi Arabia has reached $4 billion.
Abdul Aziz Alsorayai, chairman of Alsorayai Group and the Industrial Committee at Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry, has highlighted the significance of the Saudi delegation's visit to India being a leading economic power in the region.
"There are so many big Indian companies and industries who are interested to invest in Saudi Arabia. We'll provide them with all facilities," Alsorayai said describing Saudi Arabia as the most suitable place for investment in the region.
Already ranked the easiest place to do business in the MENA region, Saudi Arabia is undertaking aggressive reforms and investments to become one of the world's Top 10 most competitive economies. It has risen from 67th to 13th position in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index and is currently No. 1 in the Middle East. The Kingdom ranks 3rd and 7th in the world, respectively, for ease of registering property and paying taxes.
Alsorayai said the Saudi delegates would meet Indian decision-makers and business leaders to explore prospects of expanding cooperation and implementing new investment projects. "We want to make our cooperation with India deeper than before," he said, adding that the delegation would visit New Delhi and Mumbai.
He said the Saudi side is also interested in promoting cooperation in small and medium enterprises (SMEs). About 80 percent of businesses in the Kingdom are SMEs and the Labor Ministry hopes they would play a significant role in fighting unemployment.
The tour of the Saudi team comes following the recent visit of a 13-member business delegation from the Confederation of Indian Industry. K.K.M. Kutty, managing director of South West Group, said the delegation came to foster investments, exchanges and partnerships in fields related to manufactured goods, mining, infrastructure, machinery, IT, consulting, business, travel, tourism, transport, education, pharmaceutical, biotechnologies and healthcare sectors that are rapidly growing in both countries.
Road shows planned in Dammam, Riyadh to woo locals
Do they give 1 yr visas?... what I heard from some of our colleagues that they get only one month with single entry visa (from Indian Embassy in Saudi Arabia). So, I think, we need to do something here and there, to make sure we facilitate the movement of people between the two countries," Al Rabea said.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia gives multiple entry visa for one year.
Another post in Sept 24th to give backgrounder on the dynamics.Karzai is not an effective partner to KSA on Iran as I had initially said. Got confirmation. Which means it is a combo of PRC, TSP KSA to remove Karzai from power. Taleban are firm allies against Iran.
So while Iran was helping the Talebs, AQ, that deal appears to be anulled as a result of last year, AQ suspects were quietly arrested and being handed over or something on that lines to the US. Hikers handed over plus US announced CBMs as US cant get into war now and it also wants a peaceful escape from Afghanistan. So looks like tehran agreed to it. But everyone knows that the Taleban is going to be back. taleb is anti Iran and pro KSA alliance against iran. So Iran will feel slightly surrounded. So, looks like they are agreeing to India's plans to send troops into Afg via Tajikistan. This time russia might be on board. This is what MMS's visits to CAS countries has been about - its quiet diplomacy. Our interests agree - albeit for different reasons. PRC will be interested in telling Tehran off, if this is the case as Tehran relies on PRC as a customer for O&G, They sell weapons to iran and support Iran in the UN. Will be interesting to see their position and Irans too.
Lets just say there India started its quiet diplomacy in 2009/2010. We are talking, but its essential to have Russia on the same page otherwise everything falls apart. Russia can use its clout over PRC also.
Asia News NetworkBy Seema Mustafa in New Delhi/The Statesman | ANN – Tue, Dec 27, 2011
New Delhi (The Statesman/ANN) - In a fresh round of consultations Iran and India agreed to step up efforts for a regional initiative to resolve the crisis in Afghanistan. One of the proposals under consideration is to invite the various chieftains and groups in Afghanistan to reach a consensus in approach at a regional level meeting in any state capital.
Advisor for International Affairs to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ali Akbar Velayati met Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently in New Delhi to raise the issue of regional cooperation under the larger umbrella of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. He said it was essential to look for a solution within the region identifying China, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, India and the Afghan government as major players in the proposed initiative.
Relations between India and Iran seem to be on the mend with the suave Dr Velayati discussing the gas pipeline with the Prime Minister as well. He also sought to make light of India's opposition to Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) saying that there was no problem between Iran and the IAEA so long as "they do not act under the influence of the United States." Prime Minister Singh can be expected to visit Iran next year.
Iran and India have similar positions on Afghanistan, both being wary of Pakistan and the influence of the Taliban in decision-making. Both have been very close to the Northern Alliance, and the regional initiative suggested by Velayati is targeted at providing a level playing field for the Afghan chieftains, warring or otherwise. Pakistan has been suggested a dialogue with sections of the Taliban over and above other groups, with both India and Iran hesitant about providing this legitimacy.
The proposal to convene a regional meeting with Afghan groups is new, and has generated some interest in New Delhi. In Iran's assessment, as Dr Velayati put it, the Americans are being left with few choices now, with their exit from Afghanistan now imminent. He said that he had not expected to see a withdrawal of all US troops from Iraq, but this has come to pass. In Afghanistan it was imperative to bring all parties within the country together with others in the region to work out a solution and ensure reconstruction of the beleaguered nation with full sovereignty.
Significantly, Iran's new confidence comes from a minute analysis of the regional situation where it finds itself with more friends than foes. The US invasion of Iraq has ironically left a pro-Iran government in place, with the same being the case in Libya and Tunisia. Opposition from the erstwhile regime of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt has been tempered by the current protests with continuing support for Iran from the Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hama in the Gaza strip. The balance of power has shifted from pro-US regimes in the Middle East to the street that is not hostile - in fact quite the opposite in many countries - to Iran.
Velayati is still pushing the gas pipeline with the old 'under the sea' proposal being currently revived for discussion. India that had come under US pressure to back out of the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline in return for the civilian nuclear energy agreement, is back in talks with Iran on this issue again. Dr Velayati said that there were no problems on either side about providing gas, and purchasing gas, only in the transition of gas as New Delhi was fearful of the security of the pipeline through Pakistan. There is broad agreement to renew "serious discussions" on the issue to work out a solution.
As predicted, Iran is on board with our plans for Afghanistan. Afghanistn is one area that we dont share the same interests as the GCC.The law will give women in the closed desert kingdom an opportunity to work in shopping malls for the first time.
Ibrahim Al Mugaiteeb from Saudi Arabia's Human Rights First Society says men selling women underwear is un-Islamic, but that did not stop religious clerics fighting against the change.
"This is the hypocrisy of some religious people who interpret the rulings of Islam, otherwise you would think they would be fighting for that," he said.
"No man should deal with a woman about her underwear.
"The march has started - realising full rights for women in Saudi Arabia. I don't think anything can stop it now."
Since King Abdullah took over in 2005, Saudi Arabia has seen progress in women's rights.
Women will vote in the 2014 municipal elections and are now allowed to attend university, but there is a long way to go.
KUWAIT CITY, Jan. 4 (Xinhua) -- Kuwait and Saudi Arabia protested against remarks by an Iranian oil official that Tehran plans to unilaterally develop a disputed gas field, the official KUNA news agency reported Wednesday.
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have "sovereign rights" in the offshore Durra field, located between the two Gulf countries and Iran, KUNA reported, citing an anonymous foreign ministry source.
Kuwaiti Foreign Undersecretary Khaled Al Jarallah on Tuesday summoned Iranian Charge d'Affaires Sayed Tahabi over remarks by managing director of National Iranian Continental Shelf Oil Company that Tehran would develop the Durra field, which Iran called Arash, unless Kuwait accepts an offer for joint development.
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia also urged Iran to start negotiations to demarcate maritime borders.
The Durra field was discovered in 1967. Recoverable gas reserves at the field are estimated at around 200 billion cubic metres.
Rounds of talks involving Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iran to resolve the dispute went unsuccessful in the past years.
That'll be the answer they give you.Iran's recent overtues to india should be seen in this light. Iran under Massa is death knell for Paakka.shyamd wrote:And I just placed an order for popcorn.... But dont hold your breath.
External Affairs Minister S.M.Krishna is most certainly assured of an exciting visit to Israel on Monday. Israel announced Thursday that it is planning to hold its biggest-ever military exercise with the United States. Of course, unannounced, thousands of American troops are also being deployed in Israel.
British Defence Secretary Philip Hammond paid his first visit to the Pentagon and then went on, after meeting with his American counterpart Leon Panetta to express readiness to put the British forces in the Persian Gulf at the disposal of the US in the region. Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper has virtually called for war naming Iran as the “world’s most serious threat to international peace and security.” When Britain and Canada speak out belligerently, clearly, they are acting as choir boys.
Alongside, European Union is moving toward an oil embargo on Iran. The embargo may come into force by end-January once alternate supplies are lined up for Europe. For Iran, the EU is its second biggest consumer of oil after China, but EU can dispense with Iranian oil as the supplies only amount to some 4 percent of Europe’s total imports. The US has already signed into law a decision to target foreign parties that have dealings with the Iranian central bank, a move aimed at putting financial pressure on Iran.
On the diplomatic plane, Iran has put the western powers in a fix by offering to talk on the Iran nuclear issue and also allowing in the IAEA inspectors. Plainly put, western powers are not ready for talks and have put a pre-condition that a letter written by EU’s foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton in October must be replied to first — of course, in appropriate wording that the west would then have the right to accept or reject. Which means, a stalemate has been reached. Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad spoke to Russian president Dmitry Medvedev yesterday.
The problem for the US and its western allies is that the Russian proposal for negotiations (which Iran ahas accepted), mooted first in July last year, envisages an easing and incremental lifting of existing sanctions in parallel with Tehran answering the IAEA’s queries on its nuclear programme. Of course, Russia is firmly opposed to any fresh sanctions on Iran.
What emerges, therefore, is that the US wants to keep the nuclear issue as an alibi (although there is no evidence that Iran pursues a nuclear weapon programme) to create a case for military actions against Iran. The core issue is that the US cannot accept the surge in Iran’s regional influence, which renders ineffectual Israel’s military dominance in the Middle East.
Quite obviously, Krishna’s visit to Israel next week, punctuating a 10-year interlude in such high level visits from India, makes a big statement of solidarity with the US-Israeli game plan vis-a-vis Iran. Amidst the war clouds gathering in the Middle East, India’s West Asia policy is taking a momentous turn, and, unsurprisingly, the government is receiving accolades for standing up and being counted in full view of the Arab world as a friend of Israel.
But it is useful to remind the US and israel that there is nothing like free lunch. It isn’t a small thing that a founding member of the non-aligned movement like India jettisons principlesand gets down to realpolitik by fulfilling covertly yet another stipulation spelt out in the Hyde Act that provides the underpinning of the US-India nuclear deal of 2008. Will Barack Obama reciprocate the Indian leadership’s compliance with the Hyde Act? Will the powerful Israeli Lobby in Washington put in a word for India?
The Indian wish list is languishing in the sideboard in the Oval Office — membership of the NSG and other technology control regimes, affirmation of waiver on transfer of ENR technology to India. Then, indeed, there lies the mother of all Indian wishes: India’s UN Security Council membership. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu may have some answers for Krishna.
RIYADH: Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh held talks with Minister of Commerce and Industry Tawfiq Al-Rabiah in New Delhi and invited greater cooperation from Saudi Arabia in all fields, describing the Kingdom as a "valued partner."The talks were significant keeping in view India's strategic relations with the Arab world, its desire to boost commercial links further and its massive infrastructure development plans, which require about $1 trillion over five years.
"In his talks, Singh made the strong pitch for closer cooperation with the Kingdom, which is a strategic partner of India with very substantial commercial ties," said an Indian diplomat via phone from New Delhi.He disclosed that the Indian premier held talks on a wide spectrum of bilateral and regional issues.The talks were attended by top Saudi and Indian officials including Saudi Ambassador to India Saud Al-Sati, India's National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon, and Indian Ambassador Hamid Ali Rao."Al-Rabiah also had a bilateral meeting with Indian Foreign Minister," said the diplomat, adding that the commerce minister held talks with Indian Oil Minister Jaipal Reddy and Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who also co-chaired the joint commission meeting.Speaking at the Saudi-Indian Joint Economic Commission meeting earlier on Thursday, Al-Rabiah said "the Kingdom looks forward to enhance links in all sectors.""The talks between Saudi and Indian officials within the framework of the joint commission focused mainly on joint plans, projects and creation of more joint ventures," said a Saudi official, adding that the Saudi delegation will return on Friday.He said that Al-Rabiah’s talks with Reddy mainly "focused on ways and means to bolster ties in energy sector."It is important to note that Mukherjee in his remarks in the joint commission meeting expressed keen interest in participating in the petroleum and gas sectors in Saudi Arabia.In return, India invited Saudi Arabia to invest in the Indian petroleum and gas-based mega industrial estates, fertilizers, petrochemical plants and refineries.Mukherjee also said the proposed $750 million joint fund to be set up in cooperation with Saudi Arabia should focus on development of infrastructure and promote joint exploration and production of hydrocarbons.“The proposed India-Saudi Arabia investment fund of $750 million to be jointly set up needs to be given high priority as it is mutually beneficial,” Finance Minister Mukherjee said.He added Saudi-Indo economic ties were an important component of the strategic partnership.
"Our bilateral trade exceeded $25 billion last year," said the Indian finance minister, adding that there is great scope to expand the bilateral trade basket to include non-oil products."Equally important, we need to move into areas of investment and joint ventures," he added.
"The rapidly expanding Indian economy has a growing requirement of crude oil to sustain its development momentum," said the Indian minister, whose speech was made available by Indian Embassy in Riyadh today.
"We hope that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will be able to assist India in meeting its energy security needs in the years to come," said Mukherjee.He pointed out that India has vast experience in the hydrocarbons sector, not only domsestically but also in other oil rich countries."We have specialists both in the upstream and in the downstream areas including in training, capacity building and research & development," said Mukherjee.India has national plans to build refineries and petrochemical projects, he said.
The joint working group on hydrocarbons could explore mutually beneficial bilateral cooperation initiatives in this area, he suggested.On the other hand, he said India has made significant progress in the areas of science and technology, IT and telecoms.This is in addition to the development of affordable technologies in a range of employment generating small and medium enterprises."We would be happy to share our experience with Saudi Arabia in all these areas," said Mukherjee, calling on the Kingdom to sign an agreement in the manpower sector.He said the two countries should facilitate regular interactions between the various joint committees and working groups within the framework of the Saudi Arabia-India Joint Economic Commission.This will help in boosting ties in science & technology, higher education, information technology, health and more. Chairpersons of the sub-committees must work in tandem with a view to bring the planned programs of cooperation to fruition expeditiously, it was agreed after the meeting on Thursday.
Basbug, who retired in 2010, is the most senior officer to be implicated in a massive investigation into the so-called Ergenekon network, accused of plotting to topple Erdogan's Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP).
His arrest came hours after he testified as a suspect at an Istanbul court on Thursday as part of a probe into an alleged internet campaign to discredit the government.
"The commander of such an army facing charges of forming and leading an armed organisation is really tragicomic," the 68-year-old general told prosecutors
Critics accuse Erdogan's government of launching the Ergenekon probes as a tool to silence its opponents and impose authoritarianism, charges it denies.
But even those close to government circles have voiced doubts about the legitimacy of the investigations, especially after the arrest of two prominent investigative journalists, Ahmet Sik and Nedim Sener.
Among the accusations levelled against Basbug is an alleged attempt by a group of army officers to establish websites to disseminate anti-government propaganda in order to destabilise the country.
India won't cut Iranian oil purchases.India today held an emergency meeting to consider ways to ensure uninterrupted crude oil supply from Iran in the wake of tougher US sanctions targeting banks that settle oil trades with the Central Bank of Iran.
National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon chaired a meeting of officials from the Ministries of Finance, Petroleum and External Affairs and the Reserve Bank of India after indications from Turkey’s state-run Halkbank that it would have to stop settling payments on behalf of Indian companies.
Immediately after the meeting, the Petroleum Ministry directed the five refining companies that import Iranian crude to gather on Monday to “discuss oil imports from Iran and related issues”. The five together imported 18.50 million tonnes of crude oil in fiscal 2010-11.
Officials said the issue of Tehran blocking oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz — through which about a third of global seaborne oil exports transit — did not come up at today’s meeting.
However, they said that if that were to happen, India’s annual crude supplies of 94.82 million tonnes from six Middle East nations would get hampered. That would amount to 58 per cent of India total annual consumption of 163.59 million tonnes.
It would also hinder the 7.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas that Qatar ships through tankers each year to India, they said.
Tensions between Iran and the West have spiralled with Tehran threatening last week to stop the oil and gas movement through the Strait if sanctions were imposed. But that did not stop the US to order sanctions against crude sales on Sunday with the EU giving in-principle support on Wednesday.
Until now, sanctions were directed against banks financing Iran’s oil and gas production.
The new sanctions come with a wide range of exemptions and a grace period of six months. The EU is also debating the number of months it would wait to implement the sanctions and if long-term supply deals should be allowed to be completed.
"Upper Volta with missiles" helping out mullabaric animals with nukes...Without much media attention, thousands of American troops are being deployed to Israel, and Iranian officials believe that this is the latest and most blatant warning that the US will soon be attacking Tehran.
For anyone wondering how the abandonment of the dollar reserve status would look like we have a Hollow Men reference: not with a bang, but a whimper... Or in this case a whole series of bilateral agreements that quietly seeks to remove the US currency as an intermediate. Such as these: "World's Second (China) And Third Largest (Japan) Economies To Bypass Dollar, Engage In Direct Currency Trade", "China, Russia Drop Dollar In Bilateral Trade", "China And Iran To Bypass Dollar, Plan Oil Barter System", "India and Japan sign new $15bn currency swap agreement", and now this: "Iran, Russia Replace Dollar With Rial, Ruble in Trade, Fars Says." And ironically, the proposal to dump the greenback did not come from Iran. Per Bloomberg: "Iran and Russia replaced the U.S. dollar with their national currencies in bilateral trade, Iran’s state-run Fars news agency reported, citing Seyed Reza Sajjadi, the Iranian ambassador in Moscow. The proposal to switch to the ruble and the rial was raised by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in Astana, Kazakhstan, of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the ambassador said." Is Iran gradually becoming the poster child of an energy rich country that just says no to the dollar: "Iran has replaced the dollar in its oil trade with India, China and Japan, Fars reported." Next thing you know China, Russia and Japan will engage in bilateral trade agreements with the Eurozone in exchange for purchasing European or EFSF (which at last check are now forced to give 30% guaranatees) bonds, and bypassing dollars completely. But yes, aside from everyone else, virtually everyone (footnote 1) is still using the dollar as currency of global exchange.
And just to make sure that the message is heard loud and clear, Russia just docked several warships in Syria, the same country the US told all American citizens to leave two months ago. From China Daily:Russian warships patrolling the eastern Mediterranean Sea have docked at Russia's naval supply facility in the Syrian port of Tartus, the private Addounia TV reported Saturday.Governor of Tartus Imad Naddaf received the ships' leaders and expressed appreciation to Russia's support for Syria, the report said. Russia's state-owned Itar-Tass news agency quoted a source from the Russian Navy as saying that "It is planned that the port of Tartus will be visited by a big anti-submarine ship of the Northern Fleet 'Admiral Chabanenko' and an escort ship 'Yaroslav Mudry'.""Our ships are supposed to stay in Syria for several days," the source said, without giving more details about the warships' mission in the country.The move is considered by many observers as an apparent show of Russia's support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad whose country has been gripped by a nearly 10-month bloody unrest.The Russian Navy, however, claimed the move was part of scheduled exercises and had no connection with the situation in Syria.The warships, led by "Admiral Kuznetsov," the country's only aircraft carrier, have started their patrol missions in the Northeast Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea on December 6 to "ensure the security of the sea navigation and other Russian maritime economic activities," according to the Russian Navy.\
Russian naval flotilla docks in Syria Save this story to read laterby: From correspondents in Tartus
January 09, 2012 10:34AM
A LARGE Russian naval flotilla led by an aircraft carrier has docked in the Syrian port of Tartus in what Damascus state media hailed today as a show of solidarity by close ally Moscow.
The six-day call to the Mediterranean port, where Russia has a recently expanded naval base, is intended to boost ties at a time when President Bashar al Assad's government is under mounting Western and Arab pressure over its bloody crackdown on dissent, the Syrian press said.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/ru ... z1iy2lzASE
By Spengler
Among all the dumb things said about the so-called Arab Spring last year, perhaps the dumbest was the idea that the new democracies of the Arab world might follow the Turkish model.
In fact, if you had invested in the Turkish model (that is, in the Turkish stock market) at the outbreak of the Arab revolts, you would have lost about half your money. If you leave your money in Turkey, you probably will lose the rest of it. Turkey is not a model. It is a bubble, and it is bursting, starting with the stock market and national currency.
Full disclosure: I shorted the Turkish market after I published my obituary for the country's economic boom (see "Instant Obsolescence of the Turkish model", Asia Times Online, August
10, 2011). And I was denounced as a Zionist plotter in the Turkish media. As a matter of record, I wish to state that I am shorting Turkey not for any political motivation, but only because the Turkish government economic policy is a clown show. I make a point, however, of contributing some of the profits to Zionist causes.
Chart 1: Turkish stock market (TUR exchange-traded Turkey
stock market fund) vs. S&P 500, November 2010 = 100
Source: Bloomberg
Turkey isn't democratic, as its volatile Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan reminded the world last week by arresting yet more journalists on trumped-up charges of coup plotting. According to Turkey's Journalists' Union, Turkey has jailed 97 writers, more than China, which no-one confuses with a model democracy.
Nonetheless, Erdogan was Time Magazine's 2011 "Person of the Year". The designation is not necessarily an endorsement. In 1938, Time's Man of the Year was Adolf Hitler. In 1939, it was Joseph Stalin. Like Stalin and Hitler, Erdogan's reputation has been more resilient than the country's stock market.
The West still believes in its own ability to fix all the problems of the world, and cannot abide the thought that success is to be found anywhere in the Muslim world (not counting Malaysia and Indonesia). Now that Libya and Yemen are immersed in tribal warfare,
Egypt is dissolving into chaos, Syria has dug in for a long sectarian bloodbath, and Iraq prepares for an ethno-confessional civil war, Turkey seems a pillar of stability by comparison. Not for long, if my calculations are correct.
Last year, I predicted that the "Arab Spring" would prove to be a symptom of societal failure rather than regime failure, and that Egypt as well as Syria would suffer a social breakdown. That has now become conventional wisdom, even among news outlets that inhaled the hashish smoke from Tahrir Square and predicted a glorious era of Arab democracy only a few months ago. The subject requires no elaboration here.
Western credulity over Turkey, though, has not quite departed. On January 6, for example, Peter Kenyon wrote yet another paean to the Turkish "economic miracle" for National Public Radio in the United States.
Now I predict that Turkey's economic crisis will undermine the stability of the Turkish state as well, leaving the Muslim world without a single enclave of stability from the Moroccan-Libyan border to China's Xinjiang province.
Encouraged by the central bank, Turkish banks increased their lending at a 40% annual rate in 2009 and 2010, financing a flood of imports. Turkey's trade deficit ballooned to a tenth of its total output - as bad as that of Greece or Portugal. And the country has been borrowing on short-term money markets to finance the import bubble.
Erdogan has the weirdest economic views of any serving head of government. He justified the credit bubble on religious grounds, pledging repeatedly to cut the "real" interest rate (the cost of interest minus the inflation rate) to zero.
"We aim to cut the real interest rate in the long run, so people will increase their incomes through working, not through interest," he said last April. "Eventually we aim to equalize the interest rate and inflation rate."
Erdoğan believes that this would fulfill the Islamic injunction against lending for interest; if the real interest rate is zero, he seems to think, the sharia ban on interest is fulfilled de facto. In order words, Turkey provided nearly free money to bank customers. Erdogan's program set in motion a series of perverse effects. One is a sharp fall in the exchange rate.
Turkey's currency has been falling for a year, and fell even faster in August and September. Turkey's central bank had no choice but to raise interest rates sharply last October to prevent it from entering free fall. Even with the sharp rise in interest rates, though, the currency has continued to deteriorate, and the Turkish stock market has continued to grind lower. But the spike in interest rates will have deadly effects on the domestic economy.
Chart 2: Turkish central bank pushes up
interest rates (left scale) to support the currency
Source: Central Bank of Turkey
Chart 3 below shows that happened to domestic interest rates, meanwhile, have risen as the central bank tightened money.
Chart 3: Commercial lending rate
rises as Turkey tries to prop up TRY
Source: Central Bank of Turkey
The result is a vicious cycle: excess credit creation weakens the currency, forcing the central bank to put up interest rates; higher interest rates push up the cost of debt service for Turkish borrowers; Turkish banks lend more money to their customers to finance the higher interest costs, so that credit keeps expanding and the currency keeps weakening.
Turkish banks continue to increase lending at a 40% annual rate, but most of the new lending will finance interest payments on the old loans. In Chart 4 below, we simply multiplied the higher interest rate by the amount of outstanding bank loans in order to calculate the total volume of interest payments.
Chart 4: Interest cost explodes as loan bubble meets
higher rates: Interest payments on Turkish lira bank debt
Source: Central Bank of Turkey, Macro strategy LLC calculations
That leads to another perverse result: the banks cannot slow down their lending. After the credit-and-import bubble of 2010 and 2011, the central bank promised that it would cool down bank lending. Now, it appears, the central bank can do no such thing because the banks need to lend customers the money to meet their interest payments. Capitalizing interest is a very, very bad thing.
Chart 5: Turkish credit growth
year-on-year percentage change
Source: Central Bank of Turkey
Despite its earlier rhetoric from the central bank about the need to restrain lending growth, the central bank continues to finance an extremely fast rate of lending growth from its own balance sheet. Again, this suggests that the central bank has no choice but to capitalize interest, which means the bubble is getting worse by the day.
Chart 6: Turkish central bank credit to banks
Source: Central Bank of Turkey
The central bank pumps money into the banking system at an accelerating pace; the banks increase their loans to customers at a 40% annual rate; the central bank raises deposit rates to prevent the currency from collapsing; and the cost of carrying the debt bubble grows astronomically.
Meanwhile, the current account deficit continues to roar along at 10% of gross domestic product (GDP). Where does Turkey get the foreign exchange to important twice as much as it exports? It seems that the Turkish banks are borrowing the required money on the interbank market. Their borrowings from foreign banks (liabilities) exploded while their loans to foreign banks declined.
Chart 7: Turkish banks: Foreign interbank assets vs foreign liabilities
Source: BIS
As Turkey's balance of payments deficit ballooned in 2009, Turkish banks became massive net borrowers of dollars from other banks. Those are short-term loans, though, and the slightest shudder could wipe out this source of financing.
A disaster is in the making. Leave aside the economic ills of the southern Mediterranean generally, which will impinge Turkey's exports (about half of which go to the European community): Turkey's financial system is reaching the end of the rope. A sudden adjustment in the current account accompanied by large-scale bankruptcies among Turkish businesses and widespread unemployment will make 2012 an ugly year for the Turkish economy, and an even uglier year for Turkish politics.
David Cameron visits Saudi Arabia for talks with Crown Prince Nayifshyamd wrote:Source Says David Cameron due in KSA next week. No articles out yet to confirm though. He says KSA has told EU that they are ready to step in to provide europe with oil when they stop buying Iranian oil.
Obama used secret channel to warn KhameneiWritten by Mihai-Silviu Chirila on January 12th 2012
Posted in: Featured, World News
The head of the Russian Security Council on Thursday was quoted by Bloomberg to have said that the NATO countries and some of the Gulf allies are preparing an intervention in Syria after the failure of the Arab League mission to bring the regime in Damascus to end the bloodshed that has been going on for 10 months now.
Nikolai Patrushev, who is also a former director of Russian Federal Security Service, said that Turkey would play a key role in this development, and that along with the United States army is planning to install a no-fly zone over Syria in order to protect the rebels. The no-fly zone would be executed according to a Libya-like scenario, Patrushev said.
The Russian officials have spoken of such plan over the last months, when Dmitry Rogozin, Russian ambassador to NATO, said that an invasion in Syria was imminent, and that it would happen in two weeks (since the moment he spoke about it).
Rogozin pictured this intervention as a means to prepare a larger scale attack on Iran, the archenemy of the Western countries in the region. The fact that Syria continues to have ties with Iran is at the same time a reason to invade it and a reason to stay away from it.
Asaads goose slowly getting cooked. - close tothe final phase now as I had detailed the process to get defectors began in September.By Laura Rozen | The Envoy - 7 hrs ago
The United States has used a secret communications channel to dispatch a diplomatic communication to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning against any threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, the New York Times reports.
The Obama administration employed the back channel "to warn Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that closing the Strait of Hormuz is a 'red line' that would provoke an American response, according to United States government officials," the Times' Pentagon correspondents Elizabeth Bumiller, Thom Shanker and Eric Schmitt wrote Thursday.
The Times' sources would not describe the means of contact.
But analysts tracking military relations between the United States and Iran said they believe that Obama officials are likely using a trusted third-country intermediary to get its message to Khamenei. Such a figure, they speculate, would be a classic diplomatic go-between, carrying communiques from leader to leader.
"It's not a red phone, it's a letter," said Patrick Clawson, deputy director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, in an interview with Yahoo News Friday.
Clawson also suggested that the courier in question might be Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who traveled to Iran last week saying he was carrying a message from the West.
"My first suspicion is that Davutoglu was instructed to give to the Supreme Leader" a letter from Obama, he said.
"We have a number of ways to communicate our views to the Iranian government, and we have used those mechanisms regularly on a range of issues over the years," White House spokesman Jay Carney said in answer to a question Friday on the matter at the White House press briefing.
"So we obviously have means of communicating with the Iranian government.," he added. "We use those means and methods and -- but our message privately -- we deliver the same message in private that we deliver in public.
"It's highly desirable to have a line to the national leadership," said Michael Eisenstadt, a military analyst with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, in an interview with Yahoo News.
"How to get to the Supreme Leader, who doesn't give newspaper interviews, and doesn't do a lot of interactions with other government officials, but is the ultimate decision maker, is a question that has bedeviled us since the 1980s," Eistenstadt continued. "How do you make sure you get the message to the guy, and that it won't be diluted?"
"Keep in mind, the administration has sent two prior letters to Khamenei," he continued. "Apparently the channel, if this is the same channel, sounds very much like we have established this channel early on, if it didn't already exist."
Last week, Davutoglu announced in Tehran that Turkey has also offered to host the next round of international Iran nuclear talks,
Yahoo News previously reported that preparations are under way for a probable new round of international Iran nuclear talks to be held in Turkey at the end of the month.
In the wake of Davutoglu's visit to Iran, Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns met with Davutoglu in Turkey this week. And after he'd finished meeting with Burns, Davutoglu immediately huddled with Iran parliament speaker and former Iran nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, a close ally of Khamenei.
And on Thursday, Larijani asserted at an Ankara press conference that Iran is prepared to enter serious nuclear discussions with the West, to be hosted by Turkey.
"I believe all issues can be easily solved through negotiations," Larijani said, the Associated Press reported. "But this time, we want the talks to be serious, it should not be fake."
ISTANBUL - Hürriyet Daily News
A second high-ranking Syrian commander has defected to Turkey and is helping lead the fight against Damascus, Turkish officials confirm.
A brigadier general in charge of intelligence defected to Turkey from the Syrian military two weeks ago and held a secret meeting with the leaders of the Syrian National Council in Hatay on Jan. 11, the Hürriyet Daily News has learned.
Mostafa Ahmad al-Sheikh, the deputy commander in charge of Syria’s northern army, defected to Turkey two weeks ago and has been staying in the same camp as Col. Riad al-Asaad, the leader of the Free Syrian Army and another defector.
Turkish Foreign Ministry sources have confirmed the al-Sheikh’s defection and the Jan. 11 meeting in the southern province.
The Jan. 11 meeting in Hatay brought together the two high-ranking defectors and council leader Burhan Ghalioun, as well as the body’s executive committee members; Mahmud Osman, who sits on the council, said the body decided to support the Free Syrian Army both financially and morally.
Osman said they had also set up two criteria for the restructuring of the anti-government army. “Priority will be given to the soldiers who defected earlier from the Syrian army. But defecting soldiers’ former ranks in the Syrian army will also be taken into consideration.”
The council and the high-level defectors “extensively discussed the situation on the ground and the organizational capacity of the [anti-government army],” the body said in a statement, according to an Agence France-Presse report.
“The parties agreed to formulate a detailed plan, including the reorganization of [anti-government army] units and brigades and the creation of a format to accommodate within [its] ranks additional officers and soldiers, especially senior military officials, who side with the revolution,” it said.
Formed from deserters from the regular army who mutinied over the regime’s deadly 10-month crackdown on anti-government protests, the Free Syrian Army said it had about 40,000 fighters under its command.
The numbers cannot be independently verified, although Syrian authorities have acknowledged mounting losses at the hands of the rebels in recent months.
“The [council] proposed a plan of action concerning mechanisms and avenues of support to be offered to pro-revolution sectors of the Syrian military,” the group’s statement said. “Additionally, a direct channel of communication between the [council] and [the anti-government army] will be established ... to ensure effective coordination between the two. The [council] intends to establish a liaison office with the [the anti-government army] in order to maintain direct communications around the clock.”
The council initially opposed the use of force against President Bashar al-Assad when an uprising against his rule erupted last March.
ANKARA - Hürriyet Daily News
Despite the strong opposition from Iran, an early warning radar system in Turkey has recently become operational. Hürriyet photo
Despite the strong opposition from Iran, an early warning radar system in Turkey has recently become operational. Hürriyet photo
An early warning radar system deployed in the eastern Anatolian province of Malatya began its surveillance activities Jan. 1, the Hürriyet Daily News has learned from reliable sources. A small number of U.S. troops were deployed to the military base at Kürecik in Malatya in the last week of 2011 since the Turkish military has no qualified personnel to run the U.S. AN/TPY-2 (X-band) early warning radar system. Despite the deployment, the installation is a Turkish base and will be commanded by a Turkish high-ranking officer, the source said.
Turkey joined the NATO-led nuclear defense program only after its conditions were addressed by the alliance. It agreed to the deployment of the early warning radar system on its territory in mid-2011 while the alliance, in turn, agreed to the posting of a high-ranking Turkish general at NATO headquarters in Germany, where intelligence gathered through the radar system will be processed.
Details of the radar system’s functions were discussed during a visit by Gen. Knud Bartels, NATO’s recently appointed military committee chairman, to Chief of General Staff Gen. Necdet Özel on Jan. 9. Iran, which is already in a spat with the United States over its controversial nuclear program, has strongly opposed Turkey’s move to deploy the radar.
“The U.S. radar stationed in Turkey is no good for any Muslim country,” Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani told Turkey late Jan. 12 at a press conference while demanding further information on the matter. “But we have confidence in our Turkish friends.”
‘Radar system defensive’
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu informed top Iranian officials about the system during a visit to Tehran last week. “We made clear that this is a purely defensive [system] against any ballistic threat,” one source said.
Another regional country critical of NATO’s missile defense program is Russia. According to the source, Davutoğlu will pay a visit to Moscow in late January and will inform his counterparts on the details of the radar system deployed in Turkey if the Russian side raises the issue.
In the meantime, Washington said it hoped to reach a deal with Russia by the end of the year for the deployment of a ballistic missile shield in Europe, the State Department’s top arms control official said.
“We will get a missile defense agreement for cooperation with Russia,” Undersecretary of State for Arms Control Ellen Tauscher said Jan. 12, according the Foreign Policy magazine website.
“This is the place where we can begin to put the Cold War and ‘mutually assured destruction’ aside, and move toward ‘mutually assured stability.’”
Russia to be reassured
The U.S. has long wanted to deploy a missile defense system in Eastern Europe it says would be directed at Iran, but Russia has objected, saying such a system would undercut its own nuclear deterrent.
“The only way they are going to be assured [...] the system does not undercut their strategic deterrent is to sit with us in the tent in NATO and see what we are doing. They will only be their own eyes and ears,” Tauscher said.
“Is it a political leap of faith? Yes. Are they ready to do it? No. But we are hoping these strategic stability talks over the next eight months will start to loosen these old ties that have been binding everybody in the old way of thinking,” she said.
President Dmitry Medvedev said in November that Moscow was prepared to deploy short-range Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad enclave bordering EU members Poland and Lithuania in response to the deployment of a missile shield.