Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 11 Jul 2022 02:47
^The Bakra in the picture is a metaphor for the Paki Quoum.
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Yup and they prayed for Quomi salam(at)i !Bart S wrote:^The Bakra in the picture is a metaphor for the Paki Quoum.
The rupee lost over Rs2 against the dollar during interbank trade on Wednesday with analysts and currency dealers attributing it to fears over the delay in the finalisation of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the local currency depreciated by Rs2.19, or 1.04 per cent, against the greenback and closed at Rs210.1.
No free maalOn the other hand, Zafar Paracha, the secretary general of the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan, attributed the rupee’s fall to the central bank’s allowing payments for imports.
He also cited the delay in the IMF agreement as the reason for the rupee’s decline. The market had “no hope” that the money would be received any time soon because there were new demands every day, he said....The impression built earlier that we will get money from the IMF has been reversed
The country’s external debt servicing rose to $10.886 billion in the first three quarters of 2021-22 compared to $13.38bn in the entire FY21.
The country has been facing a serious threat from its external front as the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves fell to single digits despite a $2.3bn inflow from China late last month....The PML-N-led coalition didn’t disclose the rate at which it had borrowed $2.3bn from China....A senior analyst said that the Chinese knew that Pakistan was unable to return to the international debt market and the IMF was not in a hurry to help Islamabad. This was the reason for Chinese lent the money at a very high rate.
neeraj wrote:Reserves fall as external debt servicing rises
The country’s external debt servicing rose to $10.886 billion in the first three quarters of 2021-22 compared to $13.38bn in the entire FY21.The country has been facing a serious threat from its external front as the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves fell to single digits despite a $2.3bn inflow from China late last month....The PML-N-led coalition didn’t disclose the rate at which it had borrowed $2.3bn from China....A senior analyst said that the Chinese knew that Pakistan was unable to return to the international debt market and the IMF was not in a hurry to help Islamabad. This was the reason for Chinese lent the money at a very high rate.iron brother
It won't last. Pakis only want IMF loan so that it unlocks other sources of loan. So more and more loans. I wonder what's happening with IMF approval? Didn't the new finance minister boast about getting an approval from Dubai just a few days after coming to power? My suggestion to Paki PM is to sack Bajwa and all the crore kammandus sending shockwaves forcing faujis to mount a coup and come to power and deal with the mess.kit wrote: at that rate wonder how long a IMF bailout , even if that happens would last
July 13, 2022 at 5:07 AM PDT
Pakistan has reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund to resume its loan program, according to a government official familiar with the matter.
A $1.2 billion disbursement is expected in August after the IMF’s management gives final approval, the person said, asking not to be identified before a formal announcement. Representatives for the IMF in Pakistan and the nation’s finance ministry didn’t reply to emails seeking comment.
The Washington-based lender has also agreed to increase the loan program size by $1 billion -- taking it to a total $7 billion -- and extend it through June 2023, the person said.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/97358 ... tah-ismailAnujan wrote:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... esume-loanJuly 13, 2022 at 5:07 AM PDT
Pakistan has reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund to resume its loan program, according to a government official familiar with the matter.
A $1.2 billion disbursement is expected in August after the IMF’s management gives final approval, the person said, asking not to be identified before a formal announcement. Representatives for the IMF in Pakistan and the nation’s finance ministry didn’t reply to emails seeking comment.
The Washington-based lender has also agreed to increase the loan program size by $1 billion -- taking it to a total $7 billion -- and extend it through June 2023, the person said.
Really? IMF has no objection?Govt to slash petrol, diesel prices today, confirms Miftah Ismail
IMF has no objection on reducing the prices of petroleum products, says MIftah Ismail
Let's just say that that they have been just as successful at Geoeconomics as they have been at Geostrategy.Anujan wrote:Hey Guys,
Now that Jernail Bajwa declared a change from Geostrategy to Geoeconomics, how is the strategic Geoeconomics going? I heard there is lots of victory and achievements in Geoeconomics these days
#ThankYouRaheelSharif
Plausible deniability for full agreement...Dilbu wrote:What is a staff level agreement?
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... eff-reviewEnd-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF's Executive Board for discussion and decision.
So what does "staff agreement" mean if there are new conditions and there was no co-ordination between finance min and IMF about press statement. To me "staff agreement" looks like it's an agreement among IMF staff to not relax any conditions for disbursement of loan but Pakis are reporting it like there is an agreement between Pak and IMF.The finance ministry on Wednesday was totally unaware about the timing of the IMF press statement. The ministry was intimated just two about two hours before the IMF announced the agreement early Thursday morning.
The global lender stated that Islamabad should stand ready to “take any additional measures”.
The IMF statement revealed that against the primary budget surplus target of Rs153 billion or 0.2% of the GDP set in the newly revised budget, the global lender has, in fact, given the 0.4% target.
To achieve it, the government may either require more revenue measures or will have to slash the expenditure, excluding that on development.
The review of Pakistan’s “anti-corruption institutions, including the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) has also been made part of the programme conditions", according to the IMF statement.
...Meanwhile, Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan General Secretary Zafar Paracha termed the dollar's rise as "unexpected".
"We (currency dealers) do not understand the reason for the [rupee's] decline because we were expecting it to rise by Rs2-3 since the IMF staff agreement has been done."
This must be the sea locked 'anal'ystSome analysts expected complete submission of the US and NATO in the region after the Russia-Ukraine fighting. They also hoped a new regional block, consisting of Pakistan, Russia, China, Turkey and Afghanistan, would take shape. But they have been proven wrong on both counts.
The Russia-Pakistan ties are in the initial stages. The chances of import of low price fuel to Pakistan from Russia are low. Russia is not in a position to offer any kind of financial assistance or fuel concessions to Pakistan. India on the other hand, is still getting oil and weapons from Russia. Undoubtedly, India is a strong ally of the US and Europe against China.
Deferred oil is Saudi, Deferred gas is Qatar.. who are the other two bakras? (China and Turkiye are brothers)Pakistan is likely to get $4 billion from friendly countries this month to bridge a gap in foreign reserves highlighted by the International Monetary Fund, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said, two days after sealing a deal with the lender.
“As per the IMF, there is a $4bn gap,” Mr Ismail told a news conference in Islamabad, referring to the shortfall in foreign reserves.
“We will, God willing, fill this gap in the month of July,” he said. “We think that we will get $1.2bn in deferred oil payment from a friendly country. We think that a foreign country will invest between $1.5bn to $2bn in stocks on a G2G (government-to-government) basis, and another friendly country will perhaps give us gas on deferred payment and yet another friendly country will make some deposits.”
$1.2bn in deferred oil payment from a friendly country. - SaudiBaki FM Miftah 'Muft Mian' Ismail fave words - Think, Perhaps
As Bakis 'eye' their Friends, the friends will be keeping their eyes and hands firmly on their wallets & pockets
Yawn - Eyeing $4 bn from friendly countries this month
Pakistan is likely to get $4 billion from friendly countries this month to bridge a gap in foreign reserves highlighted by the International Monetary Fund, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said, two days after sealing a deal with the lender.
“As per the IMF, there is a $4bn gap,” Mr Ismail told a news conference in Islamabad, referring to the shortfall in foreign reserves.
“We will, God willing, fill this gap in the month of July,” he said. “We think that we will get $1.2bn in deferred oil payment from a friendly country. We think that a foreign country will invest between $1.5bn to $2bn in stocks on a G2G (government-to-government) basis, and another friendly country will perhaps give us gas on deferred payment and yet another friendly country will make some deposits.”
Deferred oil is Saudi, Deferred gas is Qatar.. who are the other two bakras? (China and Turkiye are brothers)
Surely not bakra's.Deferred oil is Saudi, Deferred gas is Qatar.. who are the other two bakras? (China and Turkiye are brothers)
As it happens with Pakistani level of reporting where things under discussion are reported as done deal, here also this equity buy in appears to be a proposal from Pakistani side to UAE, so that they get free money without the need to return, whether or not UAE accepts it remains to be seen. I think it's likely to be rejected.rags wrote:Surely not bakra's.Deferred oil is Saudi, Deferred gas is Qatar.. who are the other two bakras? (China and Turkiye are brothers)
The curious one of the bunch is UAE with equity investment aspirations. No talk of loans, free oil etc. They want to buy Paki companies. How the hell do they expect to fight the Jihadi army foundation and panda in the paki market? Or are they trying to buy them out? What sense does it make to invest in a state at the edge of failure.
Also, didn't we sign a FTA with UAE recently?
Many questions..
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan was still facing a $4 billion financing gap that will be bridged by selling stakes of listed government companies to a friendly country, buying oil and gas on deferred payments and arranging cash deposits, said Finance Minister Miftah Ismail on Saturday.
The finance minister’s remarks that came two days after a deal with the International Monetary Fund give credence to the reports that the friendly nations would help Pakistan only after the revival of the bailout package.
“Against the $35.1 billion gross financing requirement for the current fiscal year, there is still a gap of $4 billion that will be bridged by the end of this month,” said Ismail.
He added that a friendly country would give oil on deferred payments equal to $1.2 billion and also give its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) – the supplementary foreign exchange reserve – to Pakistan.
“Another friendly nation will give gas on deferred payments while the third friendly country is planning to buy shares of Pakistani companies worth $1.5-2 billion,” he added.
The dollar continued its relentless upward march against the rupee on Monday with the greenback gaining Rs 4.3 in interbank trade.
According to the Forex Association of Pakistan, the dollar was trading at a record Rs 215.25 against the local currency at 1:18 pm, up Rs 4.3, or two per cent, from Friday’s close.
The dollar had closed at Rs 210.95 last week.
When media reports about rising food inflation, the numbers don’t tell how difficult the lives of financially poor people become with prices of food items increasing day by day.
But that doesn’t mean poor Pakistanis, in particular, and others, in general, have found a magic wand to fight food inflation. In fact, mere survival continues to become more and more challenging for tens of millions — month after month and year after year. But who cares?
The vast majority of Pakistani families can be categorised in the first four groups whose monthly spending remains somewhere between Rs17,732 and Rs44,175. The latest PBS figures show that during the week ending on July 6, yearly SPI inflation or inflation in prices of essential items for these four groups ranged between 27.3 per cent and 32.2pc. Can we imagine how difficult it would have become for these people to survive with a decline of 27.3-32.2pc in their real income within a year?
Food inflation in Pakistan remains much higher than in other Asian countries that too face the impact of international fuel and food commodity prices; in June average food inflation in China, India and Bangladesh stood at 2.9pc, 7.75pc and 8.3pc respectively
Food inflation in Pakistan has been on the rise as elsewhere in the world. There are no two opinions about that. But the problem is that our policymakers don’t acknowledge the fact that structural deficiencies in our agriculture sector, lack of effective coordination between federal and provincial governments, absence of effective district governments, very weak implementation of the laws against unfair market practices like smuggling, cartel making, hoarding and overcharging, price inelasticity of most essential food items, broken supply chains and the existence of a large grey economy also continue to fuel food inflation, in particular, and overall inflation in general.
During Eidul Azha, most retailers in Karachi were charging Rs100 per litre over and above the printed prices of edible oil and ghee. A three-litre pack of a leading brand of cooking oil was being sold for Rs1800 against the printed price of Rs1485. This betrays the claims of the local administration about effective checks on unfair business practices.
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee depreciated further in the interbank market on Tuesday hitting a new low of 221 in the interbank market against the US dollar.
The foreign currency gained Rs5.80 during the intraday trade. The rupee was trading in the open market at Rs222 against the dollar today.
Experts are of the view that the dollar maintains its upward trajectory owing to the political uncertainty triggered by the thumping defeat of the ruling PML-N at the hands of PTI in the Punjab by-elections.
As per the data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday showed that the local unit lost Rs4.25, or 1.97%, against the US dollar to close at an all-time low of Rs215.20.
It was the highest day-on-day depreciation after March 26, 2020.
ISLAMABAD: Amid declining foreign exchange reserves, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has started choking the outflow of dollars of small amounts of less than $100,000 to avoid a further dip in the reserves, exposing many factories to the risk of closure and monetary penalties. The restrictive measures by the central bank are part of various capital controls that Pakistan is applying to avert a default-like situation amid a delay in approval and disbursement of $1.12 billion loan tranche by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to the sources.
Shabash. We expect no less than chaukas and chakkas from Kaptaan sahabDilbu wrote:Wow this is huge sixer!
US dollar soars to new high against PKR, trades at 221 in interbankThe foreign currency gained Rs5.80 during the intraday trade. The rupee was trading in the open market at Rs222 against the dollar today.