Re: Levant crisis - III
Posted: 21 Dec 2016 21:11

Consortium of Indian Defence Websites
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any evidence of this other than the claims by the same ppl who claim the USAF has been bombing the heck out of ISIS and killing 300,0000 per month for the past 3 years? IOW, ObamaAF?left their equipment to nato forces..........which promptly bombed it.
in this thread who need's proof?UlanBatori wrote:any evidence of this other than the claims by the same ppl who claim the USAF has been bombing the heck out of ISIS and killing 300,0000 per month for the past 3 years? IOW, ObamaAF?left their equipment to nato forces..........which promptly bombed it.
Loved Trump's (or was it Kelly Ann) comment that the accusations about Russian hacking of US elections, were being put out by the same CIA ppl who put out the claims about Saddam's WMD.
we list NATO officers but this is not their real names.
habal, This is a Paki article.habal wrote:very prescient article
American ‘Anger’ Reflects Washington’s Demise in Syria
While it might seem too much at this stage to suggest a potential American exit, some developments have clearly shown that the century of American and Western imperial supremacy in the resource rich region is over.
Defeat in Syria is not just of military nature; it equally symbolizes and effectively stamps the rise of forces which are no longer willing or weak enough to subordinate their interests to that of the West and its Arab allies.
http://journal-neo.org/2016/12/21/ameri ... -in-syria/
Turkey is at heart of all relocation : hence no talks possible without ErdoganThe UN said on Tuesday that its aid partners had counted 19,000 evacuees arriving in Idlib province, a rebel stronghold. Many have been taken to temporary camps while others have found shelter with relatives.
The World Health Organization separately said on Tuesday that 301 injured and sick patients, including 67 children, had been taken by ambulances to eight different hospitals in the western Aleppo countryside and Idlib province.
Many sick and injured people have been transferred to hospitals in Turkey
The WHO says 93 patients had subsequently been referred to hospitals in Turkey, which backs the rebels and helped negotiate the ceasefire deal with Russia.
Turkey, which is home to some 2.7 million Syrian refugees, is also preparing to set up a "tent city" in Idlib to accommodate up to 80,000 displaced people from Aleppo.
Three possible sites have reportedly been identified, and hundreds of aid lorries from the Turkish Red Crescent and the Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH) charity have crossed the border.
A smaller camp for 1,000 "disadvantaged" evacuees from Aleppo - the injured and disabled - will be set up in the Turkish border town of Reyhanli.
will do.ramana wrote:TSJ, Please desist from flaming.
On Dec. 8, Moscow announced a new round of talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his US counterpart, Secretary of State John Kerry, to try to find a solution for the embattled city and possibly the entire country. As anticipated from the moment the talks were announced, and like the previous peace efforts by the two powers, the new diplomatic initiative did not lead to a successful outcome. Indeed, as early as Dec. 12, it was declared that the dialogue had ended in deadlock.Of interest, however, is that Iran was once again not a part of Russia’s diplomatic maneuvering on Syria, and this raises questions about Tehran's place in Russia’s overall Syrian strategy. In fact, although Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bugdanov said that he had informed Iran of the latest US proposal, the Iranians denied receiving information in this regard.That said, Russia’s agreeing to enter a new round of talks with the United States was not a serious effort to reach a peace agreement, but had primarily been driven by two other factors: First, Russia’s decision was announced a short time after the Barack Obama administration showed a willingness to increase support for Syrian rebels with deliveries of more sophisticated weapons. Second, international pressure on Moscow and its Syrian policy increased after Moscow vetoed a proposed resolution on humanitarian access to Aleppo at the UN Security Council Dec. 5. Thus, declaring its willingness to hold talks with the United States was merely a tactical move by Moscow to suggest that it is ready for a political resolution on Syria, effectively killing time until the next US administration, which by all indications will probably have a more positive attitude toward Russia. Awareness of these dynamics may have caused Tehran to stifle any expressions of opposition it might have had to the US-Russian talks, and the Syrian government’s victory in Aleppo proved that the tactic had been successful, as it paused any intention by the United States to take more serious steps regarding Aleppo. What will come next?As discussed in Al-Monitor early in the year, keeping the current Syrian ruling establishment in place and preventing its opponents from seizing power has been the overriding objective bringing Iran and Russia together in Syria. This shared interest aside, each is also pursuing individual goals that they do not necessarily share entirely. Thus, as the situation moves closer to the realization of these separate goals, one can anticipate that differences in the Russian and Iranian approaches will become more apparent.
The first important point to consider in this regard is the deepening Russia-Turkey reconciliation and its impact on the Syrian crisis. The most important impact so far is the advancement of Turkish-backed forces in northern Syria, especially against al-Bab, whose strategic value lies in the opportunity it provides for these forces to play a notable role in Syria's future. After losing ground in Aleppo and other areas, al-Bab could be regarded as their only strategic asset to bargain with and gain political points. The main point in the grander scheme of things, however, is that Turkey launched its al-Bab operation after a series of meetings and contacts between high-ranking Russian and Turkish officials. This has raised suggestions that the operation could not have been launched without an implicit green light from Moscow at the very least. The maneuvering over al-Bab can be regarded as Iran’s first serious concern about Russia’s future plans in Syria, because it could mean that Moscow and Ankara have reached an agreement to in the longer term recognize their “zones of influence” in Syria, which in turn, would mean a decrease in the power and control of the Syrian government. This concerns Tehran because its influence in Syria rests mainly on its relations with Assad’s regime.
The second potential concern for Iran in this regard is that since the start of the war in Syria in 2011, Moscow has managed to establish channels of communication with the more moderate Syrian opposition groups. Most recently, there have been reports of negotiations between Russia and representatives of the Syrian opposition in Turkey. Moreover, Moscow has strong links with the Syrian Kurds and has even agreed to allow them to open an office in Russia. In other words, Russia has been diversifying its range of options for the Syria of the future, while Iran’s ties to the main parties involved in the Syrian conflict have been limited to the Assad government. Hence, any drastic change in the structure of the Syrian government or the governance of Syria could carry a higher cost for Iran compared to Russia.A third potential concern for Iran in Syria relates to the prospect of cooperation between Moscow and Washington resulting in effective collaboration between them after the new US administration takes office. An important sign of a potential new era in US-Russian relations was the selection of Rex Tillerson, a close friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, as US secretary of state. In this context, if US President-elect Donald Trump’s stated idea of an anti-terrorism partnership with Russia is realized, it could mean that the two sides might eventually agree on a “solution among great powers,” which Putin has long shown a willingness to forge. If such a development occurs, it could not only exclude Iran from the forefront of finding a solution for Syria, but also entail some elements, such as the federalization of the war-torn country, a scenario Iran strongly opposes.Thus, it seems that given the current situation, Iran might consider revising its available options in Syria and diversify its channels of communication to encompass more domestic and foreign actors with influence in the country. If not, it could very well lose some of its maneuverability in postwar Syria.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/21/world ... .html?_r=0President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey said on Wednesday that he had no doubt the assassin of Russia’s ambassador had belonged to the outlawed Turkish organization of Mr. Erdogan’s rival, Fethullah Gulen.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-new ... 6dsfL.htmlAt such events he was part of the second wave of Erdogan’s security after the personal bodyguard team of the president, wrote Hurriyet’s writer Abdulkadir Selvi, known for his contacts in the ruling elite.
But Putin may find diplomatic success more elusive than victory on the battlefield. Above all, he depends on the help of Turkey, the most loyal supporters of the Syrian opposition through the past five years. Apart from energy cooperation, the best deal he can offer Erdoğan is a guarantee that the Syrian Kurds on Turkey’s southern border will not be strengthened by any agreement. Hatred of Kurdish independence, even more than hatred of the Gülenists, binds Erdoğan’s supporters together.
But Turkey itself is internally divided. There is a strong Eurasianist group around Erdoğan that want to cut their losses with the EU after years of being rebuffed and lack of gratitude for housing millions of Syrian refugees. Others say Europe remains the only viable route to economic modernisation.
In Moscow, Çavuşoğlu pointedly said a ceasefire in Syria should not only exclude terrorist groups such as Islamic State and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, but also Lebanon’s Hezbollah – which fights on the government side. Lavrov implied Hezbollah, like Russia, was in Syria at the government’s invitation.
Anti-Iranian feeling is at a fever pitch in Erdoğan’s party since it is Tehran’s artillery, as much as Moscow’s air power, that led to the humiliation of Aleppo.![]()
sir, the points written in that article are valid though imhoramana wrote: habal, This is a Paki article.
Dunno how you deduced that the assassin was activated by deep states.ramana wrote:Two things:
The Aleppo retreat of terrorists was feasible as they are Turkish backed groups. The relocation, the picture of the girl with Erdogan all confirm this. Then why was Western press so worked up about the Aleppo? Its not like Western backed groups were getting decimated by Assad!!!
Don't know if the guard was Gulenist or what but he was triggered or activated by deep states. Might or might not be under Turkish control.
The assassin being fatally shot is a damper.
Putin might send his investigators for this.
http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/articles ... ove-affairFor a couple of months Turkey was the main advocate of the increased presence of NATO in the Black Sea basin and shifted towards closer cooperation with Ukraine. A few meetings at the highest level followed, together with joint military maneuvers and signing of important defence agreements, among others.
Turkey is infiltrated by langley ... via Gulen.Bhurishravas wrote: The chances of the assassin being a member of RETO(Recep Erdogan Terrorist Organisation) are more than that of him being a Gulenist.
In its recent history, Syria has never been a country that one could hold up as a specific example of anything – except perhaps a stubborn resistance to radical Islam, of any stripe. Hafez Al Assad, the father of the current President Bashar al Assad, was well known for his antipathy towards the Islamists, and his harsh treatment of the Muslim Brotherhood is on record. His son seems to have inherited his streak of stubbornness, as well as his strategic acumen.
After the retaking of Aleppo recently, accomplished with direct Russian help over the past 15 months or so, no one can say that Bashar has not filled his father’s shoes in both respects. Aleppo, an old and run-down city, with a sense of its own historicity and pride, should never have come to the pass that it now finds itself in – basically a site of ruin and rubble, especially the eastern part. But it has, and contrary to what the relentless barrage of reports in the Western mainstream media and their regional allies suggest, this is an historic victory for the good guys in the confusing mess that is now the Syrian theatre of war.
Good guys? Bashar Al Assad and Vladimir Putin? Yes. In the Syrian theatre, these are the good guys. The democracies of Europe and the Obama administration lost the plot completely, after themselves initially plotting to overthrow the regime of Assad. They surrendered the moral high ground long ago in Syria, and did so to the very same groups they were bombing and droning in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.
Why did this happen? Why and how did the European states and America meander into this morass? Partly due to misconceived strategies, but also through negligence, confusion about what they wanted to achieve in Syria, a drift into expedience, refugees and migrants streaming into Europe, and finally just fatigue.
It was also a function of the fast-changing geopolitical environment to which no government appears able to respond adequately, in this era of light-speed communications. As it happened, a few locally disruptive events in recent years upended the calculations of 2010-11 rather dramatically: the sinking oil price, the US-Iran deal, the attempted coup and its aftermath in Turkey, the repeated terror attacks in Europe, and the heavy investment in Sunni resurgence by the Gulf Arab states and Ankara.
Still, what does it all mean? The retaking of Aleppo does not imply the end of conflict in Syria. Nor does it mean that the regime of Assad is in the clear. Confrontation will continue. There is a virtually unlimited supply (as far as this war is concerned) of Islamist cannon fodder coming from multiple countries. Material and political support for them will flow in from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and other countries. Every effort will be made to ensure that Assad does not emerge as a clear victor, and that Russia is not able to declare its intervention an unqualified success. The result will be a slow-moving quagmire, an ugly stalemate of sorts, and it will slowly seep over the borders into other areas of the Levant. In many ways, it already is.
There’s one wildcard though: Donald Trump. If the US president elect lives up to his campaign promises, and works out a modus vivendi with Putin, there is a distinct possibility that Syria can be restored to some form of normalcy.
The first task will be joint efforts to eliminate the Islamist elements in theatre. Considering the actual capabilities of both parties - i.e. the jihadis on one side and a potential US/Russia combination on the other - this should not be a complicated affair. The difficult part will be the diplomacy involved in getting the Sunni regimes of the Middle East to play ball.
The second will be to get the regime to agree to hold elections, monitored by international observers from a range of countries (not just the usual suspects). Assad will likely agree to this. He may win, considering that he is popular in Syria right now. There are good reasons for that. He has demonstrated his personal courage by staying in the country throughout the war, and has been out in the open often. On the mythical “Arab street”, this is exceedingly important. He has maintained a very strict secular line consistently, which is one of the reasons why the army (majority Sunni) stayed loyal despite inducements, and why he has Christians and other sects fighting on his side.
The Syrian public is well aware of the challenges the regime faced – literally the might of the West and the wealthiest Arab and Sunni states – and it is aware that Assad withstood them all. Finally, he has shown a firmness and independence of thought, as well as a kind of Arab nationalist pride that no Middle Eastern regime in recent memory has.
The third part will then be letting Assad rule, if he wins. Or, if he loses, allowing whatever regime emerges in Syria to run the country, while keeping a benevolent eye on it. This will be the most complicated part. It requires buy-in from the major powers, and commitments of both adherence and non-interference from the local players. Yet it is not impossible. This writer is fairly certain that, if Assad loses, he will step out of the way. In the Arab context, he has already built his legacy, an historic one. But he will not leave Syria, or as one suspects he sees it in his own mind, he “will not run away from Syria”.
So, to continue with the Trump clichés that abound in the worryingly compromised Western media, Donald holds the trump card.
EU offers Turkey deeper trade ties despite political tensions.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-tu ... SKBN14A1KFThe European Commission proposed on Wednesday an expansion of its customs union with Turkey to include services and most agricultural goods despite increased political tensions with Ankara since an attempted military coup in July.
The Commission, in a positive gesture after months of criticism of Ankara, said it had asked EU governments to endorse its bid to revamp a limited 1996 accord that eliminated tariffs on trade in industrial goods and processed farm products.
heart swells with pride ! I am sure this is beginning of journey for Menon saar ! I forwarded to many friends on whatsapp !kmkraoind wrote:What The Retaking Of Aleppo Means - Jai Menonin Swarajyamag
Posting the article/post in full.
The Turkish assassin is a product of Tayyip Erdogan's incitement
Altintas did not grow up in a vacuum. Five years ago, Erdogan acknowledged his goal was "to raise a religious generation." Altintas is its product. He was seven years old when Erdogan came to power; his whole schooling was under Erdogan.
Despite the pressure to toe the fire eating line from Washington, there are some sane people left in USA.Beyond education, Erodgan's biggest domestic mark has been the transformation of Turkey's once robust media into an engine of state propaganda and conspiracy. Journalists who do not toe the line end up in prison, or worse. Altintas grew up upon a steady diet of Erdogan's Islamist pronouncements and worldview repeated and endorsed in classrooms, on television, in newspapers, and even in the cinema. If Altintas believed his actions to be heroic, it was because Erdogan's speeches depicted the Nusra Front, the Al Qaeda affiliate fighting in Syria, as defenders of Islam's honor.
The Russian Aerospace Forces have destroyed over 700 terrorist training camps in Syria during its campaign, Shoigu said.
"Since the start of the operation, Russian jets have conducted 17,800 sorties, launching 71,000 strikes on terrorists' infrastructure, eliminating 725 training camps, 405 plants producing ammunition, 1,500 pieces of terrorists' military equipment, 35,000 militants, including 204 field commanders," Shoigu said.
Some 9,000 militants have laid down arms in Syria, the Russian defense minister said.
Russia's operation in Syria has helped stop the spread of terrorism in the region, keep the country united and break the "chain of color revolutions" in the Middle East and Africa, Shoigu said.
In general, the operation [in Syria] allowed to solve a number of geopolitical problems: international terrorist organizations have been dealt a serious blow in Syria, their spread in the region has been stopped, the financial support of militant groups… has been disrupted, the collapse of the Syrian state has been prevented, while the chain of 'color revolutions' in the Middle East and Africa has been broken," he said.
According to the defense minister, "the process of political settlement and reconciliation of warring parties has been launched in Syria. A total of 1074 settlements populated by some 3 million people have joined the ceasefire regime, while 108,000 refugees returned home; 9,000 militants laid down arms."
nydailynews .. now that is a respectable publication.Bhurishravas wrote:http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/turk ... -1.2917862
Bhai, It is an opinion piece of some writer. They are free to have whatever opinion. I dont like many stuff on NYTimes written by Kramer and company. Or Varadarajan and co here. So what.habal wrote:nydailynews .. now that is a respectable publication.Bhurishravas wrote:http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/turk ... -1.2917862
have they apologized yet, for their open support and condoning of ISIS & al-qaeda in Syria and public rejoicing at assasination of a diplomat ?