Global Economy

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svinayak
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by svinayak »


“Within a month, Main Street won’t be able to buy a home, a car or a tractor unless paid for in cash. As the credit markets shutdown, the mortgage, auto and small-business loan markets will nearly disappear. And the economy will grind to a near halt.”

And what’s wrong with everything having to be paid for in cash? I think that would be great as many people who currently cannot afford a house would suddenly be able to, and without having to take on any of that life-sucking debt that the banks push as though it was necessary.

“Far fetched? Not at all. It is the absence of credit–not too much of it–that causes great economic depressions.”

Actually, it is the absence of a sound monetary system that causes a great depression. Our money is issued as a debt that can never be repaid, so saying that the absence of credit causes the problem is absurd. Creating too much credit=debt is what caused this problem in the first place. Ron Paul knows this but obviously you don’t. Read up on Austrian Economics which has accurately predicted this all along.


By the close of the stock market on Monday, the value of Main Street’s IRAs, 401Ks and pension plans will be worth a lot less than on Friday. How much? Hard to say, but a loss of 20% isn’t crazy.

By week’s end, there is a good chance that a raft of large banks will be taken over by federal regulators.

Within two weeks, as the banks hoard cash, the credit lines on most of Main Street’s credit cards will be reduced, foreclosure proceedings accelerated and car-leasing programs suspended.

Within a month, Main Street won’t be able to buy a home, a car or a tractor unless paid for in cash. As the credit markets shutdown, the mortgage, auto and small-business loan markets will nearly disappear. And the economy will grind to a near halt.

Far fetched? Not at all. It is the absence of credit–not too much of it–that causes great economic depressions.

The credit markets even today are essentially frozen, waiting for a resolution of the bill.

Bernanke-Paulson duo is completely discredited – everything was fine till yesterday (per them) now the bottom has fallen. They should simply go away.

1. Paulson/Bernanke duo- If they were smart why did we get into this mess. The crisis has been brewing for along time – they threw a lot of money at the problem (kitchen sink, helicopter, bazookas). They made systemic risk a reality. Now we need a nuclear missile. This is the dumb and dumber duo – let us give discredit where it is due.
2. Paulson – he sat at the center at Goldman – brewing the toxic stuff. Sold at the $ 600 M – exit package – parachuted into Govt. TAX FREE.
3. Bernanke – He has been testifying (under oath) every month – everything is OK – he is vigilant, blah-blah-blah…
4. Common investor – S&P is at 10 year lows – if you (even) dollar cost averaged into S&P every month – you would still be down. Sept 98- Sept 08- 121 months - $ 100 /m – your 12.1 K would be worth 11.9K – does not look like a big loss. But instead if you invested @ 4% - it would be worth 15K. In between the bandits at Wall Street have been getting fat bonuses - $30B last year itself – pay for
performance. Looting us investors – accounting scams and what have you. And now they want the bailout to stem foreclosures (at Hamptons).
Side note – John Thain likely to get a $ 40-50M for 10 months at Merrill.
5. Bankruptcy/Failure is part of free market – anything else is like Christianity without hell. Free market is working even now– Buffet put $ 5 B in Goldman, Wamu sold for a song to JPM. At the right price deals will be made. Even I may buy house at the right price. AIG, FNM/FRE, CFC etc were business made bad decisions – they did perish.

Solution is asset price revaluation, removal of leverage (pay your down payment).
Moral Hazard and accountability are very very important parts of any system especially free market.

Politicians will make a deal, bailout will happen – whether any of us like it or not. There would be winners and losers – some would benefit more than others, others will lose.

Investors are doomed, tax payers are doomed, common man – who is that.

Inflation, job losses, dollar,…. doom, gloom, apocalypse - sell every rally
Mean Street: Why I’m Buying the Financials

Well, you can’t say 2008 has been boring.

Bear Stearns, gone. Lehman Brothers, gone. Merrill Lynch, gone. Washington Mutual, gone. Wachovia, gone. Fannie and Freddie, basically gone. AIG, almost gone.

meanstreetAbsolute carnage. The fastest restructuring of a banking system in economic history.

Will the U.S. financial-services industry survive?
Last edited by svinayak on 06 Oct 2008 21:47, edited 2 times in total.
SwamyG
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by SwamyG »

Okay stop the press, this is just in Pope criticises pursuit of wealth
svinayak
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by svinayak »

Image

Fed Considers Rate Cut as Recession Fears Mount

Federal Reserve officials are weighing further interest-rate cuts, even if Congress passes a $700 billion rescue plan, in the face of a deteriorating economic outlook and severely strained financial conditions.

The Fed's willingness to consider additional cuts marks a turnaround from the past few months, when soaring food and energy prices turned its attention to inflation risks. At a regular September meeting, after oil prices had receded, officials still declined to move the central bank's federal-funds target rate from 2%.
SwamyG
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by SwamyG »

But the dollar is keeping steady. Why is it strong? Will it come down?
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Prem »

There is talk about Europeans and other cutting the interest rate simultanepously with Fed action. Dollar has now where to go but up. Rate cut wont effect its appreciation. Middle East and Middle Kingdom wont be gain much if they now dump Dollar. In Nutshell, Doller remain the main trading currency and so does Uncle's control for next 20 years or so.
Oil will hit 60$ a barrell by Christmas and by next March the threat of Inflation as well deflation will disappear.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Surya »

Swamy

normal logic does nto hold for the dollar.

In spite of all the derision and happiness at US problems, the reality is that the US recognized and acted with speed.

Now watch the Europeans and others struggle to come to consensus. Lets see the might Belgians and Austrians and others deal with their problems. Easy to lecture others

In this scenario when everyone is screwed the thinking is still to deal with the dollar which has some predictability.


And who really wants to imagine a world where you are dependent on the Arabs or Europeans or Chinese to take decisions to stablise the markets.
John Snow
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by John Snow »

Normal Logic still apllies

The world is flodded with dollars, the world is held as collateral for the welfare of dollar. As long as dollar is the defacto currency, the dollar will be propped. Then in defense of Dollar its the currency of relatively the most open and transparent monetary (manged) instrument.

If you had read my earlier posts I hve two good stories that I used as perfect anology
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Surya »

John

no one is actively propping up the dollar

actually everything happening should push the dollar down.
svinayak
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by svinayak »

Surya wrote:John

no one is actively propping up the dollar

actually everything happening should push the dollar down.
Major demand of the dollar in the world is due to

1. World trade between top 5 economies

2. OIL trade in the world

3. Country reserve currency


-----------------
OIL trade and world trade will slow down due to global recession.
SwamyG
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by SwamyG »

So all the predictions, from some of analysts, about the falling dollar and collapse of the Western banking system and doom-gloom scenario is just another bits and bytes in the media?
John Snow
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by John Snow »

Surya garu> consider this
If a stock is falling and you are going to be adversely going to be effected, under normal circumstances you would move in to dump your holding or if you have vested interest as a majority stock holder you would at minimum not dump your stock there by accelarating the crashing of the value of the stock held.

If PRC KSA Japan Russia EU were to be not in the mood of proping they would dump, but their interests are intetwined with the fate of dollar, why all said and done united states is a super rich man on drugs and addicted hopelessly to consumtion (in a run away fashion), therefore everybody wants the addicte to remain addicted.

Suppose I owe you 1 crore and you have nothing as collateral except a paper which more prominently says In God we trust rather my name and my promise to repay.

Then you will pray formy health more often than your own. :mrgreen:
John Snow
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by John Snow »

Swamy G ji>> It will be gradual erosion not over night but you can perceive or feel.
Neshant
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Neshant »

"I believe that in the long run, this economy is going to be just fine," Bush said. In the short term, he said the Treasury Department must go about enacting its plan to buy up troubled assets from financial firms so that credit will start flowing again to consumers.
Now that takes a load of my mind. I was beginning to panic.

Its good to know everything is going to be just fine.
Satya_anveshi
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Satya_anveshi »

Sorry for this nukkad like post but simply can't resist.

IMO it does appear that the so called economic hit men have turned their guns into their groin area and are shooting mindlessly but I am cautious of the words from Warren Buffet, who likened this turmoil to "financial equivalent of pearl harbor." If it is indeed so, some one is going to get bombed to smithereens. Who those suckers will be? Hope is that we won't be the one.
svinayak
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by svinayak »

Satya_anveshi wrote: Hope is that we won't be the one.
We means who?
svinayak
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by svinayak »

http://features.csmonitor.com/creditcrisis/

Stock markets’ plunge puts pressure on Fed to cut rates

By Ron Scherer | 10.06.08

Following a wild and woolly day in the stock market, the world’s central banks are now under intense pressure to drop interest rates.

If the banks agree to a coordinated rate cut, economists expect it to be between one-half and three-quarters of a percentage point.

The catalyst for a cut was today’s roller-coaster day on Wall Street where the Dow Jones Industrial Average at one point was down 800 points but ended with a loss of 369.88 points, a loss of 3.58 percent.

“We need a coordinated rate cut,” says Fred Dickson, chief investment strategist at D.A. Davidson in Lake Oswego, Ore. “You would think the fall of 800 points would catch the Fed’s eye. And a coordinated rate cut would help” ease the credit crisis.

The call for the rate cut came despite the efforts by the Fed to unclog the financial system. On Monday, the Fed said it would increase its loans to banks to $900 billion. And on Monday, the Fed said it would begin to pay interest on banks’ excess reserves and required reserve requirements. This will give the commercial banks greater profit but reduce the Fed’s profitability.

“Together, these actions should encourage term lending across a range of financial markets in a manner that eases pressures and promotes the ability of firms and households to obtain credit,” said the Fed in a statement. “The Federal Reserve stands ready to take additional measures as necessary to foster liquid money-market conditions.”

Some credit-market participants said the Fed’s moves would help somewhat. “Little things may help, but the markets are pretty crazy,” says Bob MacIntosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance in Boston. “I can tell you the credit markets are still lousy.”

Although there was no specific news item that precipitated the stock market drop, Mr. Dickson wonders if some large hedge funds, which have borrowed heavily, are getting margin calls. But he notes that the market’s sharp drop also comes at a time when analysts are reducing their earnings estimates for the fourth quarter. And “right now we have a crisis in confidence in the banking system,” he says.

In fact, some economists wonder if an interest-rate drop will help. “Interest-rate levels are not the problem,” says David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York. “The problem is that no one is lending any money.”

Last week, for example, the commercial-paper market – short-term lending to everyone from large corporations to states and cities – shrank by nearly $100 billion or 6 percent. On Monday, the overnight interest rate for prime commercial loans was 3.68 percent, as high as interest rates right after the House of Representatives voted down the $700 billion bank rescue plan last Monday.

The dry spell has at least two states, California and Massachusetts, calling for government loans. “The tax-exempt money-market funds are just afraid to lend,” says Mr. MacIntosh. “They have the cash, but they literally do not want to put it to work.”

The turmoil in the credit markets means that many large corporations that normally would access the commercial-paper market have not been able to do so. GMAC, for example, was unable to get investors to buy a $2.7 billion offering from its commercial finance unit. The offering was withdrawn. “It’s just an example of how shaky the financial markets are,” says Dickson.Why Asian banks are stronger than US banks
By Simon Montlake | 10.06.08

Bangkok, Thailand

Asia’s markets are tumbling, but their banks aren’t.

A decade after their own debt crisis shook the world, Asian banks have so far averted the crippling run of failures afflicting the US and Europe. By staying away from risky US securities, prudent lenders in Asia may even stand to benefit from the current crisis, as stricken Western banks seek fresh capital.

Asia is feeling the credit squeeze. And fears of a global recession have pummeled equity markets here, too – Tokyo’s key index was down 4.25 percent Monday, pushing it to the lowest level in 4-1/2 years – but none of its financial institutions have collapsed.

A handful of banks in Hong Kong and India have had to reassure nervous savers not to pull their deposits. Regulators have also pumped extra money into credit markets, but there’s been no panicked rescues of stricken lenders, as in Western countries.

That’s because relatively few banks bought into the promises of US mortgage-backed assets. Those that did had only limited exposure before last year’s subprime blowout: Asia currently accounts for only $24 billion of $550 billion in global subprime-related loan write-offs, according to Bloomberg.

“We’re not really seeing a lot of pressure on Asian bank systems…. They just didn’t seem to build up their exposure [to US subprime loans] in a way that other banking systems did,” says James McCormack, head of Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings in Hong Kong.

Many bankers in the region have painful memories of the 1997-98 crisis and prefer to lend cautiously, avoiding the kinds of high-risk, high-return bets that they can’t manage. Japan had its own experience of a real estate crash that kept economic growth on hold through much of the 1990s.

The US housing bubble came at a time when dynamic economies in Asia were offering ample lending opportunities, so there was less pressure to buy sophisticated US derivatives. A global economic slowdown is bound to crimp Asia’s export-led growth, but its bankers can breathe more easily knowing that they’re not saddled with toxic assets.

A culture of risk aversion underscores the differences between the US and Asian financial markets, says Cyn-Young Park, a senior economist at the Asian Development Bank in Manila. Regulators are more hawkish on monitoring banks, and companies are less likely to pile on debt so soon after the last crisis, which led to waves of bankruptcies.

But over the long term, such conservatism may be a handicap, she adds. “Asia wasn’t developed enough to digest all these [US] financial innovations into their system. In some senses, this isolation is a reflection of weakness,” she says.

Whatever the reason, cash-hoarding Asian banks – and governments – now appear to be in good stead as US banks try to dig out of a hole.

In a reversal of the 1997-98 crisis, Asian capital is beginning to flow West to buy marked-down assets in the financial sector. Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial recently paid $9 billion for a 21 percent stake in Morgan Stanley. Merrill Lynch and Citigroup have both raised capital this year from Singapore’s government, one of several in the region with ample foreign-currency reserves that are mostly held in US government debt.

Middle East oil producers also hold large reserves that could provide a lifeline for cash-strapped banks. Abu Dhabi’s sovereign fund last year spend $7.5 billion on a stake in Citigroup.

Fear of a nationalist backlash to their investments and the risk that asset values could decline further – as Merrill Lynch did after Singapore’s initial investment last year – may keep foreign governments on the sidelines. But the pressure on US banks to rebuild their capital base will continue, even if the Congressional bailout sucks out bad loans from the system.

That should be a magnet for sovereign wealth funds and healthy banks. “They’re the ones with the capital right now. You can assume that Western governments are happy to embrace their investments,” says David Cohen, director of Asian economic forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore.

Despite the relative strength of Asia’s banks, investors have been dumping stocks in the region. Leading the downward charge, Japanese stocks tumbled Monday, largely on fears that Asian exporters will be hit hard by an expected US recession.

Newspapers in Hong Kong quoted an executive of HSBC, a regional banking giant, warning that any slowdown in Asia would be “far more severe” than that of a decade ago and that recovery would be slower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 5 percent, while markets in mainland China, South Korea, India, Singapore, Australia, and Thailand also slid.

Any global slowdown will eventually hurt banks in the region, says Emmanuel Daniel, founder and CEO of The Asian Banker, a publisher and research company in Singapore. Companies that rely heavily on demand from the US for their products and services are certain to feel the pinch, probably by early next year.

“There is concern that when that happens, the quality of borrowers within Asia will come into question and that in turn will affect the banking industry. This is the big one that Asian banks are bracing themselves for,” he says via e-mail.

Mr. McCormack says he’s monitoring banks that are vulnerable to tighter credit conditions, such as those in South Korea and Taiwan. “I think that the pressure we would see would be on banking systems that are dependent on capital markets for funding,” he says.
Satya_anveshi
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Satya_anveshi »

Acharya wrote:
Satya_anveshi wrote: Hope is that we won't be the one.
We means who?
Let the secret be. :D
sunilUpa
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by sunilUpa »

Keep an eye on Iceland guys..it's melting and not due to Global warming. :shock:
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by John Snow »

Meanwhile
Business loan bailout
Federal Reserve aims to unfreeze credit markets by buying loans crucial to business.
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See all CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close) By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
October 7, 2008: 9:19 AM ET

AMERICA'S MONEY CRISIS
Business loan bailout
Fed announces dates for bank loans
Signs of hope
Fed mulls corporate lending bailout
Oil prices bounce back

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Federal Reserve announced a new program to help the battered market for short-term business loans - taking its closest step yet to lending directly to businesses.

The program addresses commercial paper, a form of short-term funding that is crucial to many businesses operations.
svinayak
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by svinayak »


Bank of Japan to manage policy independently

BusinessWeek - 1 hour ago
By TOMOKO A. HOSAKA The head of Japan's central bank said Tuesday that while global financial turmoil is intensifying, each country should manage monetary policy independently, damping speculation of coordinated rate cuts by major economies.


Japan holds interest rate at 0.5%

BBC News, UK - 8 hours ago
Japan has kept its key interest rate at 0.5% for the 20th consecutive month - amid continued worries about the global financial crisis. ...

Iceland announces Russian loan, nationalizes bank

The Associated Press - 1 hour ago
REYKJAVIK, Iceland (AP) — Iceland nationalized its second-largest bank Tuesday under emergency legislation and said it had negotiated a 4 billion-euro ($5.4 ...


IMF Urges Coordinated Action, Sees US Losses at $1.4 Trillion

Wall Street Journal - 1 hour ago
By TOM BARKLEY WASHINGTON -- With losses on bad US assets alone expected to top $1.4 trillion, the International Monetary Fund urged global policy makers Tuesday to coordinate a response to an unprecedented financial crisis that continues to spread.

IMF warns of deeper slowdown amid crisis

Reuters - 1 hour ago
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday increased its estimate of global losses from the financial meltdown to $1.4 trillion and ...

IMF in 'severe downturn' warning

BBC News, UK - 1 hour ago
The economic downturn in many countries is likely to worsen as the financial crisis continues, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned. ...

Ex-IMF chief: Global economy could recover by end 2009

ABS CBN News, Philippines - 37 minutes ago
By Judith Balea, abs-cbnNEWS.com | 10/07/2008 9:40 PM Global economy could recover as early as end of 2009, a former chief of the International Monetary ...

IMF calls on central banks to support banking system

AFP - 38 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AFP) — The International Monetary Fund urged Tuesday that central banks provide direct and limited support to the banking system amid the ...


IMF says rapid and decisive global action needed to stem crisis

Times Online, UK - 1 hour ago
Decisive and aggressive action is needed from the world’s leading economies to head off the looming danger that the escalating financial crisis will spark a ...

Asia Will Help World Avoid Recession, Camdessus Says (Update1)

Bloomberg - 6 hours ago
By Clarissa Batino and Francisco Alcuaz Jr. Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Growth in Asia will prevent the world's economy from sliding into a recession, ...
Nandu
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Nandu »

There was a story being reported yesterday as "the first case of mass murder related to the economic bust", i.e. man killed his family and then himself in a suburb of Los Angeles after he faced financial ruin.

Turns out today that he was an Indian immigrant.

http://www.latimes.com/news/printeditio ... 1919.story
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by malushahi »

So we go from G-7 to G-14?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/t ... 2#comments
Time to scrap G-7, says World Bank chief
Zoellick: Flexible new group should include China, Russia, India, others
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by vsudhir »

Dumb question onlee...but what is it that the G-7 is supposed to do? What is its 'charter' if any and what decisions are typically taken there, what contarcts and mechanisms exist for monitoring and c ontrol of the decisions taken etc?

Or is it all just a placebo effect of self-importance the likes of Italy get from its membership?

IIRC, Russia grandly said 'so what?' to the western threat of excommunication from the G8 during the Georgia war.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by svinayak »


Marc Faber: International commentator and celebrated contrarian investment guru.

Dr. Marc Faber concluded his monthly bulletin (June 2008) with the Following:
''The federal government is sending each of us a $600 rebate. If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money goes to China. If we spend it on gasoline it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer/Software it will go to India. If we purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. If we purchase a good car it will go to Germany. If we purchase useless crap it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the American economy. The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prost****es and beer, since these are the only products still produced in US. I've been doing my part ."
vsudhir
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by vsudhir »

More headline snapshots from today's Drudge report
Fed to buy massive amounts of short-term debts...

Banks crash as Iceland goes into meltdown...

MARKET MAYHEM: London Banks In Freefall...

Sarkozy: 'We want a new world to come out of this'...

Bloomberg: 'Problems so grave no country can solve them alone'...
John Snow
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by John Snow »

As long as
Banks of Cayman beckon
Banks off Bahamas allure
Isle of Man Banks shore up
Its alright for paradise is awaiting
Nothing to worry
for the big men
who stole the banks
and shot the sheriff
its gala galore
:mrgreen:
:((
Paul
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Paul »

While it is fine and dandy to lay all the blame on wall street, how about the people also taking Some responsibility for their actions. They say that with age comes experience. In the wake of the enron fiasco in 2000 employees of this company lost most their 401ks cuz it was invested in their parent co. This was a lesson for all employees in main street. If 60 year olds cannot learn from their mistakes , they should not blame wall street wolves for treating them like sheep. For a wolf will behave like a wolf when it comes to sheep.

In the last 60+ years there have been many many recessions…if the baby boomer generation has lived through these recessions and still not learnt from them…not even god can help them.

I lost some 15K during the dot com collapse 7 years ago….now I can say it was money well spent cuz I learnt my lessons and applied it well in this downturn.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Neshant »

Chris Martenson on the current financial crisis

Download mp3 : http://media.globalpublicmedia.com/RM/2 ... adford.mp3

or if you prefer

Stream : http://media.globalpublicmedia.com/RM/2 ... adford.m3u
Satya_anveshi
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Satya_anveshi »

At this rate, I am thinking we will all end up working for Fed/Treasury managing even credit card accounts of customers and taking care of call centers. God forbid!! How the f does Fed/treasury think they can do all that the business they are getting into. Or just that they have to and no other alternative.

Fed's new tool: Business loan bailou
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

Iceland is negotiating a $5.4 bailout loan from Russia to stay afloat as country.

let us see if the high benefits regime of the european social capitalism continues
to exist or sees severe curtailments.

perhaps the chinese model is the only sustainable one :twisted:
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by bart »

Iceland shares the same Nordic heritage of Sweden/Norway/Denmark. Its ironic they have to turn to Russia for help.

One great advantage that Nordic countries and Russia have is that they have small populations, and huge natural resources. If everything tanks and things go back to medieval subsistence mode they can still survive very well. Not so easy for India/China or Southern European countries.

Maybe they can go back to their Viking roots and start plundering England for their grain and wenches again :D An old English/Irish Sunday prayer goes "From the fury of the Norsemen, O Lord deliver us."
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

they have a onsite advance element in the scots who have a strong viking element + marauding germanic
tribes who sailed in via denmark.

would be nice to see the clans reform and pillage through southern england, starting with quila-e-islams
like birmingham.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Neshant »

The bailout from Russia has not gone through. They are still negotiating last i heard. Probably Russians will be asking for a naval base there for the next 50 years in exchange for fronting the cash.

Meanwhile their currency has plummeted. Only people holding their savings in gold/silver have been protected.

Their main problem was that they borrowed a lot of money to invest globally. They borrowed about 7X their GDP (100 billion borrowed vs 14 billion gdp) and gambled it all around the world in markets. Now those markets have gone belly up, they are in a big mess. Gambling is no way to build an economy and its a lesson for India. Don't let the banks, financials or any part of the private sector make reckless bets that puts the whole economy at jeapordy.

As if that were not enough, Britain has threated to sue them. 300,000 british customers who have bank accounts in Iceland have lost their savings. Iceland has about 3 billion left in reserves and the UK wants first claims to it before its all gone :

Britain threatens to sue Iceland to protect savers
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hJdb ... wD93MAN000
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by fanne »

bart I am not so sure. Did you know that 30% of naturally fertile land in this world is in India, with only 15% of the population!!
We will also do good in Medival world, in fact 80% of India is still in that mode and doing great. If there is indeed a bloodbath, we are the only big economy that is so much isolated from the world economy.
rgds,
fanne
bart
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by bart »

You make a good point of much of India already being in subsistence mode. No doubt India has very good fertile land. More so than Northern Europe definitely. But in terms of land to people ratio, forests, and most importantly water resources, they are really blessed.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by fanne »

Naah land to people does not count. 1 person living in Antartica enjoys lots of land but can grow nothing compared to say 1000 people in Punjab (much smaller land)
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by svinayak »

Image
ldev
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by ldev »

Besides some chest thumping, this article is essentially correct. What is needed is a multi pronged approach consisting of:

Capital injection

Loan guarantees to unfreeze the interbank markets

Additional liquidity

While the US $700 billion plan will attempt to create a market and as a result a price for mortgage backed securities, it does not contain the other elements which are part of the UK plan. The Fed is doing a piecemeal approach with incremental steps in case the preceding steps do not work. I dont know if that approach is adequate given the severity of the problem.

Brown and Darling have bitten the bullet - and set the world an example
Those that were asking for a decisive intervention to halt a financial pandemic certainly got it yesterday. It was almost too big for shell-shocked markets to assimilate. Their reaction, in part driven by the mounting sense that this crisis is now international and out of control, was profoundly disappointing.

Yet Britain has produced a well thought-through, bold and comprehensive plan to put its financial system on a sounder footing - well ahead of any other government. Messrs Brown and Darling for once deserve some congratulation. There is every chance they will find themselves lionised at the IMF meetings in Washington this week as the one government that has finally risen to the occasion.

Big money is on the table. I estimated the cost of the package of measures that I recommended in the Crisis Watch column on these pages yesterday as between £350bn and £400bn, including up to £50bn of new capital for the banks - which I thought at the limits of the possible. The overall price tag on the actual measures is £500bn.

The proposed recapitalisation of the eight banks is vital - and it is conspicuous that it goes well beyond what any other government has contemplated. It will leave British banks as the most solidly capitalised in the world, even if it is a confidence shaker that the deficit in their capital was allowed to grow so big. The obvious concern is that without a "bad bank" to buy their toxic loans - the one omission from the package and importantly used by Sweden in its 1992 rescue plan, on which this is closely modelled - taxpayers' money will be immediately used to fund write-offs, so sending the banks back to square one. And the means of getting capital into the banks - preferred equity - has very little capacity to offer a compensating upside gain for the taxpayer because preferred equity share prices are more or less fixed, unless, like Warren Buffett's investment in Goldman Sachs, the government has warrants.

A "bad bank" has the merit of both removing the risk of further write-downs against the replenished capital, and also allowing the toxic debt to be partly or even fully recovered in better times - saving the taxpayer cash. On the other hand if the government succeeds in preventing a bank going bankrupt and the disastrous domino effects that would create, while its other interventions work the amount of toxic debt might stay limited.

The most eye-catching, eye-popping element of all is the up to £250bn of government guarantees for lending in the interbank market. This is targeted at what has emerged as the heartland of the problem - the de facto bank run, in which the big banks had completely lost confidence and stopped lending to each other. The guarantee is a double whammy. It will allow them to lend to one another again without fear, and to use guaranteed loans to finance maturing asset-backed securities - and on a huge scale. Barclays can now comfortably refinance the £28bn of its securities falling due next year; RBS its £18bn.

Given all this - along with the doubling in size of the Bank of England's special liquidity scheme and the coordinated cut in interest rates by Britain, the US and the EU - it is serious that the FTSE 100 closed the day more than 200 points down. One problem is that it will take time for the guarantee to open the interbank market, where the London interbank offered rate only eased a tiny fraction yesterday. Another is that the British action has exposed the inadequacy of what is proposed elsewhere - and thus the gigantic scale of both the problem and what has to be done by other governments, confirmed by the sombre pronouncements by the IMF and chair of the US Federal Reserve.

The American decision not to support Lehman Brothers is now turning out to be the fulcrum on which the crisis has turned. It is not just that Lehman had $110bn of senior bonds that are now virtually valueless; it had written an estimated additional $440bn credit default swaps on top which it cannot honour - a large part of which will come due at the end of this week. Wall Street is transfixed, as are the Asian markets. Nobody knows where these losses will end up. It has suddenly become obvious that the Paulson plan cannot simultaneously handle this together with the fallout of the sub-prime crisis. And in addition there is the impossible challenge of financing trillions of dollars of asset-backed securities which are maturing when the world's interbank markets are shut.
Britain may have invented a way to allow its banks to do this, but banks in other countries need the same help, along with the same chance to recapitalise themselves.

This will dominate the discussions at the IMF/World Bank annual meetings this weekend. Britain has bitten the bullet and partially nationalised its banking system. Other countries, notably the Americans, need to follow our lead - and to do so fast. Incredibly, it may have fallen to Gordon Brown to show the world how to avert a slump.

• Will Hutton is executive vice-chair of the Work Foundation

[email protected]
ldev
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by ldev »

For those really interested,this is a fascinating interview with Nassim Nicholas Taleb via a Bloomberg podcast (18 minutes long). It is dated August 21 of this year and is eerily prescient of what has since happened.

I had the good fortune of meeting this most radical of financial thinkers in the recent past and his cerebral flexibility and capacity leave most people scrambling to catch up.

His two best sellers are a treat to read in today's turbulent times.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Nayak »

Iceland: the land of cool turns bitter
Iceland's financier-Vikings made their homeland trendy and wealthy - until the banking crisis left it with crippling debts
Roger Boyes

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/travel ... 909177.ece

The doughty Icelanders know that they have only squatters' rights on their volcanic island. White steam hisses and spumes its way through the thin crust of the earth; nature seems to be constantly irritated.

Now, though, the feeling on this tiny, angry island goes beyond physical geography. The eruption in the global financial markets has hit Icelanders in an elemental way. Across the world, banks are going under or being given expensive life-jackets. In Iceland, which has let its banks run free, the country itself could go under. Even the Prime Minister, Geir Haarde, admits as much: “There is a very real danger, fellow citizens, that the Icelandic economy in the worst case could be sucked into the whirlpool, and the result could be national bankruptcy.”

Suddenly an island with a population of 300,000, seen for the past decade as the essence of cool - a successful nation where people couldn't stop partying - is on the brink of becoming a failed state. That naturally worries the world - and Britain more than most, as Icelanders have bought into institutions such as Hamleys and Moss Bros, Karen Millen, House of Fraser, Whistles, Woolworth's and West Ham United. But for Icelanders it represents a psychological and moral crisis.

Who to blame? How to survive? What did the islanders give up when they chased the money, forgot their roots and turned themselves into a Nordic Tiger?

“We're furious. Livid,” says Svanur, who runs the Kaffibarin pub in downtown Reykjavik, over strong black coffee at the counter of his bar. The pub is famous for being once co-owned by Damon Albarn, the lead singer of Blur, one of several rock stars who thought that they had found peace on the island. “These people have been gambling with our life savings. What we need now is for a foreign bank to come in and give us proper banking services.” That view is shared around the pub, which is abuzz with gossip. “They've all taken flight - run away to the Cayman Islands,” sneers an electrical engineer.

Around the corner at the Hotel 101 bar, once a bustling hang-out for Reykjavik's globalised money class, there is no one to be seen. With its long, purple-lit table, it looks rather like an overdesigned mausoleum.

“It's Monday night, what do you expect?” says the churlish barman. “Actually,” I say, “it's Tuesday.” The barman shrugs and stops the photographer from taking shots of empty seats. Why? “Orders from the owner.” Who, for the time being, is Ingibjörg Pálmadóttir, wife of Jón Asgeir Jóhannesson, owner of the Baugur investment group and one of the tycoons who has been prudently absent from the island for a while.

So how did the Hotel 101 - named after Reykjavik's most exclusive postcode - come to be the watering-hole of a financial elite? For centuries Iceland had a fish-based economy, even fighting a war with Britain to keep its lucrative cod trawling grounds. Then it began exporting aluminium, and then, after free-market reforms introduced by the Thatcherite Prime Minister Davìd Oddsson, it rapidly privatised its banking sector and moved into the business of financial engineering - to such an extent that a handful of Icelandic banks, expanding aggressively, have ended up with liabilities more than eight times the national GDP.

That gold rush, at the beginning of this century, has spun the illusion of wealth. Dorrit Moussaieff, the jet-setting jewellerydesigner wife of President Ólafur Ragnar Grimsson, set the tone, with her coterie of girlfriends - Rannveig Rist, the general manager of Alcan Iceland; Tinna Gunnlaugsdóttir of Iceland's National Theatre; artists and gallery owners - all regulars at the now eerilly silent 101.

But it wasn't just a wealthy elite who surfed the Zeitgeist. Ordinary Icelanders were swiftly freed from the idea that they belonged to an impoverished society where the key question about a future bride was: is she a good housekeeper? In the past five years, people's average wealth has grown by 45 per cent - and the money has gone into houses and cars, financed by 100 per cent loans based on a spread of foreign currencies. Now the krona is plummeting, loans are ballooning and thousands are defaulting. The only good news is for foreign visitors, for whom beer has at last become affordable.

Some, like Kristian, who has worked in the fishing industry since he was 16, when he shipped fish to Germany, are philosophical about it all. Bad years, good years; boom and bust - that is nothing new for a fishing nation. “We've just forgotten about it - how we used to eat haddock and cod-tail because the fleshy, good cod had to be exported,” says the 53-year-old, seated on Reykjavik's tidy harbourside. Grizzled and articulate, he now drives a delivery van for some of his old trawlerman friends. “The priorities went askew in the past few years - we thought we could have jam on our bread every day of the week.”

In fact, even the fishing industry has changed. “There were always secure jobs on the fleets, on the dockside and in the processing factories,” says Kristian. “Now all processing is done at sea, the fisherman returns maybe once every 45 days and the fish is already frozen, ready to be exported.” The effect: Reykjavik no longer smells of fish and seagulls no longer wheel around the docks in hungry squadrons. The capital has become almost genteel. The old town district has a freshly painted feel - a Max Mara shop looks like an overdressed intruder between wooden-slatted houses - and the rather bleak 1970s Reykjavik, with its architectural nods to Slough, has all but disappeared. Money has allowed a makeover.

There are only a few tell-tale signs of trouble - the hole where the foundations for a new Landsbanki headquarters were to be sunk has been quietly filled and tarred over to form part of a car park. And the new Landsbanki-sponsored opera house looks as if it may not be finished.

If there are still Vikings in this Iceland, they are the financial marauders setting out for Britain - not to pillage and plunder, but to snap up a chunk of French Connection.

But now, suddenly, Icelanders have grasped that such activities do not represent the future of the island and, indeed, they could be its downfall. The new Vikings have been thriving on the cronyism and back-scratching culture of Reykjavik. Since the beginning of the 20th century banks and government have worked hand in glove. If a minister slipped into Opposition, he was more or less guaranteed a post as a bank director. The privatisation of the banks was supposed to end all that, but it merely continued by other means.

Professor Thorvaldur Gylfason of Reykjavik University has been predicting disaster for years - on his desk sit wooden blind and deaf monkeys, representing central bank policymakers - and has been shunned for his efforts. “We have Thai-style croneyism that has failed the system,” he says. “The Government is not on top of the situation. It is in denial and has not been truthful about the system.”

At the heart of this almost cabal-like approach to running the country is the sheer smallness of the capital city. Its two best schools, a classical grammar school and a business-orientated one, generate the elite. There is a fierce rivalry between them, but at the same time there is elaborate bonding going on. So the vice-chairman of the imperilled Landsbanki turns out to be an extremely good friend of the head of the central bank. The controls, insofar as they ever existed, are subverted by this shared intimacy: once the two men shared secrets about kissing girls, now they are running the economy.

Talking to the young students in Kaffibarin, one might think that Iceland is preparing for a revolution. “They should be hounded down wherever they are,” says one firebrand, “brought back from the Cayman Islands or wherever they are hiding and brought to trial.”

The business and political class are seen as traitors. Yet the anger is not simply a call for swift and sharp justice. Icelanders are returning to their sense of being islanders, rather than global players who can throw weight around in London and beyond.

Islanders, when they return to their roots, know that they have to accept geographical limitations. On some Antarctic islands there is a breed of butterfly that cannot take off - it has learnt that it is safer not to fly than to risk the storm winds. One middle-aged Icelander, asked why he didn't just leave if he was so unhappy, looked at me with unblinking eyes: “And what if I went to Denmark or wherever and got lost? Who would look for me?”

Secondly, Iceland remains a deeply Protestant country. Some of the people's anger is turned against themselves. “We went along for the ride, didn't we?” says the thirtysomething actress Sólveig Arnarsdóttir, who is dressed in a striking red seaman's coat to shield her from the Atlantic wind.

“It's right to be worried now about the people who will lose their jobs or who are bending under their debts. I've got a house that was essentially owned by the banks; now it's owned by the Government, so maybe that's not a tragedy. But we have to think again about our obsession with money.”

She and her friend Gudrún Gudmundsdóttir, one of Iceland's leading human rights activists, agree that the new Vikings, the financial bounty-hunters who have gained such clout, are part of a culture that is too testosterone-driven. “A third of our members of parliament are women,” says Arnarsdóttir, “but guess what - Parliament has had almost no say in what has been going on between these men in suits.” Gudmundsdóttir agrees: “We have to open up boards of companies to women.”

Across the social spectrum, Icelanders agree: life has to change. You can't wish away global capitalism but you can change the way that elites manage that capital. The alternative is to see your country disappear down the plughole. “Running off to get a loan from Putin - why did they do that?” says an astonished Professor Gylfason. “Maybe they just thought that the Russians wouldn't tie the cash to changing the financial management of the country.”

Whatever the reason, the kids in the still-just-cool clubs of Reykjavik know the metaphor that applies to their reckless rulers: they are dancing on the edge of the volcano.

Icelandic facts

Life expectancy in Iceland, at 81.3 years for women and 76.4 for men, is one of the highest in the world.

The first people thought to have lived in Iceland were not the Vikings but Irish monks who settled there in the 8th century. They left when the Norsemen arrived, around AD870-930.

Among the delicacies of Iceland is hakarl, the meat of a Greenland or basking shark which is cured and hung to dry for 4-5 months. Other specialities are boiled sheep's head and ram's testicles pickled in whey.

More books are published per capita in Iceland than in any other country.

Icelandic water is so clean, it is piped straight to the city's taps without treatment or chlorination.

Ninety-nine per cent of Iceland's electricity comes from hydropower and geothermal energy. The country aims to be fully energy-independent by 2050.

US astronauts chose Iceland to train for walking on the Moon before their expedition in 1969.

Tipping in an Icelandic restaurant is considered an insult.

As many as 80 per cent of Icelanders believe in the existence of elves. Roads have been rerouted and building plans abandoned to avoid disturbing rocks where elves are said to live.

Every Icelander is known, and listed in the telephone directory, by his or her first name. For surnames, each child takes their father's name plus “son” or “daughter”. Iceland is the only country to uphold this Norse tradition.

Sources: Icelandic Tourist Board, UN Development Index

Icelandic exports

Fish Iceland's fishing industry provides 70 per cent of its export economy, with cod the most commonly caught species. But fishing and fish processing now employs only 6 per cent of the workforce, with most people working in services.

Aluminium The construction of huge aluminium smelters has caused controversy in a country that prides itself on its green credentials. Making aluminium requires large amounts of electricity, but geothermal and hydropower resources are used to power the plants. The metal is exported, to be turned into aircraft and drinks cans.

Tourism The northern lights, clubbing, black sand beaches, hot tubs, and the best whale-watching in Europe. Iceland's growing tourist industry now contributes 12 per cent of its foreign currency earnings.

Wool About 20 per cent of Iceland is suitable for raising livestock, and the warm wool of Icelandic sheep is famous. The country's biggest fashion hit has been the lopapeysa jumper. Characterised by a decorative circle around the neck, lopapeysas were traditionally worn by farmers and fisherman but have become trendy and a favourite souvenir for visitors.

Björk The eccentric Reykjavik- born singer, known for dressing up as birds and her iconic music, has sold more than 15 million albums worldwide. She is considered such a national treasure that in 2000 the Government gave her free use of Ellidaey, an island off the northwest coast.
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