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Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 06:19
by nachiket
LokeshC wrote:
nachiket wrote:While I'm by and large extremely happy with this nuclear strike on black money by Modi, I do have one thing to critique. I don't think they should have publicized that cash deposits of 2.4 lakh will come under I-T dept. scrutiny or that deposits of 10 lakh or more will invite a 200% penalty.
I-T dept. does not need to publicize what they are going to do. They could have waited till after Dec 30 and then dropped another bombshell on those who thought they could get away with depositing the cash and suddenly found that their account was "frozen pending investigation" or something. This would have ensured that more black money would enter the banking system and higher windfall to the govt. in terms of penalties. Now a higher percentage of the money is going to get burnt or discarded.
Which btw will lower inflation. :)
True, but that is going to happen anyway. If you can't withdraw the money immediately and have to pay a huge penalty, the money goes into govt. coffers and the bank's deposit base also improves. It is not going to be spent or unaccounted for. Wouldn't have mattered had our banks not been facing huge NPA's. But in the current scenario, any cash infusion is going to help them. Especially one which remains more or less frozen till the I-T dept. finishes investigating its source.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 06:35
by yensoy
Rishi Verma wrote:Arun Jaitley was on cnn-18 today, he mentioned that depositors up to Rs2L won't be asked any questions. Why?? Even 20,000 should be asked "bhaiyya kisne diya, bua ne ya chacha ne"
nachiket wrote:While I'm by and large extremely happy with this nuclear strike on black money by Modi, I do have one thing to critique. I don't think they should have publicized that cash deposits of 2.4 lakh will come under I-T dept. scrutiny or that deposits of 10 lakh or more will invite a 200% penalty.
The reason for setting the limit is to mollify the population. The intent here is to go after fatcats, and also widen the tax base not to harass large sections of the population who rightfully or wrongfully have relatively large (but not really that large) sums of petty cash. The other reason for the limit is because IT department physically can't handle the case load which will come from chasing every single person with 2.5L or higher in their account (or 20,000 in their account.

So instead of saying "we literally can't follow every small fry" Jet Li has put a positive spin on it saying "if you have 2.5L you don't need to worry". Imagine how many people suddenly say "wow, so he is really after the big fish - they deserve it". Instead if 50% of the population started fretting about suddenly being in the government's cross-hairs, there would be rioting and the economy would come to an absolute standstill (and then there will again be rioting). This is also a huge law-and-order issue.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 06:40
by shiv
MohdKav wrote:
Grudge ?

I need to raise cash for my business, my option of selling my land moreover gone and getting loans look bleak. Ofcourse, as any person who is in position, would be worried; its quiet natural especially when you are a small businessman with no black money with salaries to pay and with govermant servants who want to harass you because they lost money in this event.
Would you have been able raise cash by selling land in such a hurry? I can understand the issue if you were on the brink of a sale which got killed by demonetization.

Not suggesting anything but to my knowledge the fastest legal way to raise cash from land is to get a bank loan against the land.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 07:26
by Kakkaji
Was this posted? It says the more money that gets 'burned', the better off the Government's finances will be:

Rs 500, Rs 1000 notes ban: Can bonanza help govt to recapitalise banks
If those with black money do not convert all their R500/1,000 notes to new ones for fear of the taxman discovering their hoards, the government could reap a rich bonanza.

Assume that, of the R14 lakh crore worth of R500/1,000 notes, R2 lakh crore are not converted, but are burned. With R2 lakh crore less of currency to redeem, RBI’s currency liabilities will reduce by this amount. This effectively allows the central bank to print a broadly similar amount of fresh money without it affecting anything. This can, theoretically, be parked in a contingency fund and later transferred to the profit and loss account and, over a period of time, given to the government — effectively then, the government can get a windfall to recapitalise banks. This is what the chief economic advisor meant when he said, on Thursday, that the demonetisation could be seen as a transfer of black assets from private individuals to the government — the size of the transfer depends on how much currency is not converted and that, in turn, depends on the size of the black economy.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 07:54
by Suraj
It wasn't posted, but it's been described the same way across the last several pages here.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 08:10
by Pratyush
putnanja wrote:
sudarshan wrote:
Yup, and people will book anonymously, I'm sure :P. You still need to give your name, address, etc. right? You give a false name and address, how do you cancel and get your money back?
You book with your actual name/family/relatives, and when you cancel it, you get back money in new currency that you can still keep at home. Railways doesnt take PAN number when you book tickets.

This move will make people scared to stash cash at home going forward,! Hopefully it will scare them into keeping it white after paying taxes

railway will deposit refund cash in account of ticket holder and not return cash.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 08:13
by Suraj
Airlines have stated that tickets bought with old currency notes are non-refundable.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 08:24
by Kakkaji
Suraj wrote:It wasn't posted, but it's been described the same way across the last several pages here.
So that's why the Govt gave warning that deposits over 2.5 lakhs will attract scrutiny? Much faster and cheaper for the Govt to reduce liabilities when people burn money, instead of trying to collect through the Income Tax assessment where the assessee can stall through lawyers etc. 8)

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 08:45
by Gus
Suraj wrote:Airlines have stated that tickets bought with old currency notes are non-refundable.
Lol..

Reminds me of Costanza and Kramer buying air tickets under the assumption that they can cancel later and Costanza then forced to fly :rotfl:

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 09:03
by Suraj
GoI's playbook is pretty clear. Announce the earthshaking move. Then sit back and knock off every escape option one by one. Railways ? Can't get back cash - goes into bank account only. Airlines ? No refunds Temple hundis ? Nope - IT man's watching.

It really doesn't matter what the BMsters do with the money. Destroy it ? GoI wins because the liability is erased . Deposited in bank and hefty fine paid ? Adds to deposit base, gets huge penalty income, money back as white, GoI wins because it's all back in its control.

In chess, this is called zugzwang position - any possible move screws them and directly benefits GoI, and they HAVE to make the move, because what they hold has Rs.0 value ignoring its worth as scrap paper.

In the coming months, a lot of things will change in value. Not just real estate and big ticket things, but even basic groceries, which have been subject to decades of merciless fleecing by hoarders, whose play money is now useful as toilet paper onlee.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 09:13
by Karthik S
MadhuPurnima Kishwar ‏@madhukishwar
I celebrate crackdown on black money.But disheartened 2 hear from people in the know that smart ones already found ways to convert & hide.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 09:24
by Manish_Sharma
^BS, if they had found the way to convert there wouldn't have been such a gaali-galoch and wailing by politicos...

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 09:25
by shiv
In medical colleges a room full of money is left for IT raiders to collect while the main stash remained untouched. Till Mdoi's "demonization" of notes

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 576739.cms
BENGALURU: Income tax officers have recovered Rs 43 crore in unaccounted cash in raids on the DK Adikeshavulu group of companies, including Vydehi Medical College and Hospital in southeast Bengaluru, and Mallya Hospital.
Image

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 09:27
by Manish_Sharma
Look how pathetically mulla yum is begging govt.

"....please elections are coming, just give us a weeks time... "


Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 09:29
by Suraj
Madhu Kishwar is rumor mongering . There hasn't even enough new cash printed to replace even a fraction of a percent of the BM out there .

In order to succeed you have to park the old cash, get back new cash of same face value and have absolutely no trace of your identity known . It's physically impossible to accomplish because there's not enough new cash in circulation . Even having cash in hand doesn't guarantee you won't be caught when they analyze the deposit data .

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 09:45
by Manish_Sharma
Madhu Kishwar and Tavleen Singh I could never trust despite their supporter for Modi in 2014.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 09:47
by darshan
Hopefully GoI takes back Rs2000 note in the same manner in a year or two to make it pretty clear that this is not a once every 40 years thing.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 09:53
by Karthik S
It will be huge loss if notes are invalidated so frequently as well, considering the amount of money spent on printing each note.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 10:01
by Yagnasri
Aadikesavulu fellow was a liquor baron from Rayalaseema and one of the people who defected/not voted to save UPA a few years back? If it is the same person, he was even TTD chairman a reward is given to him by YSR. There is huge scope for recovery of cash in AP, TN, KA and I am not sure about Kerala. Mumbai money seems to be too much into real estate.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 10:09
by Gus
Karthik S wrote:It will be huge loss if notes are invalidated so frequently as well, considering the amount of money spent on printing each note.
A possibly irrelevant concern if circulation will be less to force cashless transactions.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 10:52
by asgkhan
Can I deposit 500 & 1000 notes into my PPF A/C. Tax declaration is coming up in Jan. I actually save enough money to make the deposit in my PPF a/c @ post office in December.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:08
by Rishi Verma
saip wrote:Banks are open this Saturday and Sunday, it appears.
misfortunately bank's are doing a poor job at crowd control. no ropeway to allow one at a time. Everyone rushes to the cashier window and one smelling worst gets there first. I went in just to take a couple of snaps.

Impossible for women folks. It's shameful.

Most banks still keep ATM's closed. They should stuff all their cash in ATMs first

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:10
by rahulm
The CM of indias largest electoral state mumbles incomprehensibly, at least for me. Is he even mentally fit ?

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:13
by MohdKav
sohamn wrote:I still don't understand -
1) Why selling your land looks bleak? - the demand doesn't go down in the medium term ( > 6 months )
Because my sale was on the brink,and I want the cash now.
2) Why is getting loan looks bleak? - the bank would still take your property at market value as a reverse mortgage
Falling asset prices, banks are not ready to give you the valuation you would need to get a LAP at the amount you require , which is usually at 50% of the market value.

3) Why is it difficult to pay salaries ? - you can wire the money to each employees bank, instead of paying cash.
Because I dont have enough cash. You are assuming that I have issues with bank transactions, I have issues with how this has affected the economy. It might be good for the country, but it is extremely bad for me. Real estate going down for 6 months at my stage is not something I can handle.

Look man, if you don't have black money and can account for all income source then you shouldn't be worried. You can get all your money back. Yes, you will have difficulty for 3 months especially if you are transacting via cash ( which you should have avoided for multiple reasons ) - but in the medium to long run - your money is safe and it helps the economy tremendously.

I am not worried about black money, I dont have any.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:15
by rahulm
Here in Goa,IOB, HDFC, SBI and BOI ATM's are open and queues are orderly with no jostling and physical,contact. Perhaps,s because of a large number of firang tourists. HDFC Bank security guard is managing his ATM queue.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:24
by MohdKav
Suraj wrote:Why would getting loans be bleak ?

Lets have some perspective here. There are a lot of people like you who are impacted short term. On the other hand there are a lot of big fishes who accumulated thousands of crores in benami cash who are currently sitting on piles of what's worth less than toilet paper. Those lakhs of crores of money can no longer push up the price of every daily essential from dal to milk to bananas, all the way to the prices of houses and other immovable property.

You assert that your concerns are selfish. Fine. None of us are obligated to take further time to address that, though. There are a large number of people who are impacted and seek some clarity. It's only been two days. No one can help you right now, except yourself.
Banks are also taken by surprise by all of these.
They are and will re assesses the whole loan against property schemes.
Bank valuaters are idiots anyways, they
I am as selfish as any other person, I have lot of families who depend upon me.That is important to me and my family. This is good for the country, that is well and good, I am not the salaried class nor am I the black money class. I was in the brink of raising cash, and this event happened. I am happy and worried .People like me gets the real hits when something like this happens in an economy. If the government and people are not sensitive to small business owners and their concerns.
I am happy black money is gone, but there is a huge impact on the economy; it has drastically changed the economy ( for the good ) . It is the government's responsibility to control the negative fall out. Thats all I said.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:29
by MohdKav
shiv wrote:
MohdKav wrote:
Grudge ?

I need to raise cash for my business, my option of selling my land moreover gone and getting loans look bleak. Ofcourse, as any person who is in position, would be worried; its quiet natural especially when you are a small businessman with no black money with salaries to pay and with govermant servants who want to harass you because they lost money in this event.
Would you have been able raise cash by selling land in such a hurry? I can understand the issue if you were on the brink of a sale which got killed by demonetization.

Not suggesting anything but to my knowledge the fastest legal way to raise cash from land is to get a bank loan against the land.
A deal was to be made last week, it got pushed to this week.

Bank loan against land depends on the valuation by a valuer and capacity to repay. Its hard to raise enough of cash for my medium term plans, but enough for short term, but asset valuations are going to be iffy from now, and banks are going to be 'more' stricter on land backed loans.

I am just trying to understand how the Government intends to handle some negative's created by this event which is largely very positive

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:31
by Suraj
It's not the governments responsibility to hold up the real estate market . That is the markets own job, once the government acts decisively to remove the distortion caused by black money . There are no 'easy and gradual' solutions . Such attempts only give black money people time to hide or manage things . Your pain is temporary . None of us can offer you any further empathy or help . In the long term you also benefit . In the short term your concerns are your own to manage yourself . If you want to vent please use the whines thread .

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:32
by Gus
After setting the BMholders on fire, modi is in Japan doing his thing coolly. He may not dance or slow jam, but modi is way cooler than ombaba

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:34
by Gus
Suraj - not just some economic big picture benefits in the future, but all of us holding white money have it immediately appreciated in value, although the markets will take time to adjust.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:44
by MohdKav
Suraj wrote:Madhu Kishwar is rumor mongering . There hasn't even enough new cash printed to replace even a fraction of a percent of the BM out there .

In order to succeed you have to park the old cash, get back new cash of same face value and have absolutely no trace of your identity known . It's physically impossible to accomplish because there's not enough new cash in circulation . Even having cash in hand doesn't guarantee you won't be caught when they analyze the deposit data .
She is talking about people who have already converted it to real estate, pushed it into other means, illegal financing and gold. She wants them to be caught

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:50
by Suraj
Gus - it does but people don't really get that . It's basic psychology that you notice the paper 'loss in value' of a hard asset you own, but seldom appreciate that the cash they have in hand will rise substantially in value because they no longer have BM for competition . Over the next few weeks / months a lot of things will soften in price as the cartels that manipulated them behind the scenes fell apart . The reason real estate is so visibly dropping is that it's a large value and illiquid market, compared to something like onions .

It is unfortunate that some individuals were caught out by the timing . However we all understand that it was absolutely necessary to do this as a surprise act . Beyond empathy for the short term pain, nothing more can be offered .

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:52
by Schmidt
Neighbour comes in and says their doctor friend has 2 Cr lying in cash ,ad wanted to know if we can help in converting to gold etc

I refused , and told the also not to help

Today , they said that the said friend went to Salem and got their cash converted to gold by paying a premium of 6000 Rs per gold sovereign

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:53
by MohdKav
Suraj wrote:It's not the governments responsibility to hold up the real estate market . That is the markets own job, once the government acts decisively to remove the distortion caused by black money . There are no 'easy and gradual' solutions . Such attempts only give black money people time to hide or manage things . Your pain is temporary . None of us can offer you any further empathy or help . In the long term you also benefit . In the short term your concerns are your own to manage yourself . If you want to vent please use the whines thread .
I am not venting, You are the moderator you can do what you want. But there are legitimate grievances of people which has been impacted by this, call it collateral damage. My question was how does the government intent to handle it. Even Americans arent captialistic enough to say 'let the markets handle it and let a industry have a severe crash', and No I am not definitely looking for any help out here or even empathy, other than being open about an issue I faced and to understand it better. The song in BR as always been in the same tune and refuse to hear anything else.
I found your post educative and therefore I asked you more to understand more. You dont have to be a insensitive about it.

These whines you very easily push aside, impacts people's and families legitimately. I dont want to see people taking extreme steps or facing serious issues, because they are not able to raise finance or handle their issues.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 11:57
by MohdKav
Doctors have some serious black money lying around.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 12:03
by Suraj
MohdKav: none of us lack empathy or sensitivity to your situation. That doesn't mean we have to agree with you . Please remember that . You're asking for govt to replace one set of distortion with another . Sorry , not a good idea .

You got burned by owning real estate whose price was artificially boosted by black money, even if you used white . The good thing is, this is the last time for quite some time that such a thing will hurt you .

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 12:07
by rahulm
How exactly are the jewellers planning to exit this loop. Won't the currency note chicken come home to roost eventually ?

I'd be very careful with my ID. Remember, a few years back jewellers where siphoning PAN card numbers from railway reservation charts to evade taxes ?

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 12:12
by Chandragupta
One gripe that I have with the GoI is that they are not pulling up the IT-dept, Excise & Sales Tax guys. These are the biggest bunch of bas**rds to walk the country. So many small businessmen, traders will lose their money. And most of the people here are celebrating this saying 'good the buggers lost their money..serves them right' but it is because of these ******** that these people were forced to hide their income.

Go to any trading hub in Delhi or a metal hub and shout "Excise!" in the middle of a street and watch how many of the business owners there piss their pants. This is a f-ing mafia that extorts money from businesses. There is a reason why businesses hide their income so that their income is less than the excise threshold. So many cases I know where IT dept raided and walked off with crores in bribes. Same with Sales Tax & Excise. Will the GoI investigate every bugger in these departments?

Everyone supports this decision but Modi government better go after these agencies with a vengeance, otherwise the biggest mafia will be left untouched. Not just burn their stash but these guys should go to prison for what they have done to the Indian SME sector. Economic terrorism is the right term. The f-ers are terrorists.

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 12:12
by putnanja
Gods Get Richer as Black Money Hopes for Rebirth Through Temple Hundis
...
One of the most brazen efforts at lending a divine hand to whitewash money was reported from Karnataka where a religious head has spread the word that unaccounted money can be deposited in his mutt’s cash collection box. The sum would later resurface in official documents as donation from an anonymous donor and will be deposited in banks, and will eventually make its way back to the “donor” after a handsome commission to the mutt head.

In some cases black money hoarders are getting rid of their wealth at a steep discount and in some cases the commission is up to 50%.
The temples managed by the private persons are also being used to convert substantial amount of black money into white. The managements offer to return 50%-70% of the money to the "donors" after a few months.
Rural and urban cooperative banks and non-banking financial institutions too are being pressed into service to bring the worthless currency back to life across India.

In one instance that News18 independently verified in Kolar, Karnataka, more than Rs 5 crore was divided into a bundle of Rs 2.5 lakh each – villagers were given individual bundles that were later deposited in cooperative societies.
...
...
The government will also monitor the sudden spurt in cash reserves in the nearly 1,000 cooperative banks and credit societies in Maharashtra. Some temple managements are "close to political parties, making such transactions possible," he alleged.
...

Re: Currency Demonitisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 11 Nov 2016 12:14
by Rishi Verma
Schmidt wrote:Neighbour comes in and says their doctor friend has 2 Cr lying in cash ,ad wanted to know if we can help in converting to gold etc

I refused , and told the also not to help

Today , they said that the said friend went to Salem and got their cash converted to gold by paying a premium of 6000 Rs per gold sovereign
I encourage anyone who knows such incidents to simply report it at least by twitting