Bharat Rakshak

https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/akhileshs- ... ti-2021387
"Kairana Model" Intended To Block BJP May Be Coming Apart

These people can't stand each other one minute. Back stab each other. Work with any one China/Pakistan but wants Indians to vote for them

Kairana, the seat in Western Uttar Pradesh which cemented the alliance of historic enemies Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati, votes today. But a lot has changed from the euphoria of the "Kairana Model" nearly a year ago which saw their combined force defeating the BJP in a crucial by-election and forged the way for their parties to fight together for the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh in an attempt to block Narendra Modi's re-election.

As 8 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh vote today - including Kairana - the big conspiracy theory is Mayawati's supposed dalliance with the BJP in politically hyper-active UP.

Speculation apart, Mayawati's recent actions have caused huge worry among senior opposition leaders across the spectrum. They cite her public appeal to Muslims in UP not to waste their votes on the Congress, which has been excluded from her partnership with Akhilesh Yadav. This appeal, whether it works or not, is a huge solid to the BJP as it is likely to ensure that it will consolidate Hindu upper caste votes while Mayawati and the Congress are perceived as battling for Muslim voters

Mayawati is also upset that her closest aide for three decades, Naseemuddin Siddiqui, whom she expelled from the BSP in 2017, has been given a Congress ticket for a constituency that votes today.

Mayawati is learnt to have complained about the Congress attitude to several leaders. She reportedly told Kamal Nath, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister, "You (the Congress party) want the elephant (her party symbol) to give you a free ride to Delhi. I will not allow it".

The Congress also has serial complaints against her which range from arrogance to unreal seat demands. All this attrition in the opposition has made the BJP happy. After all, the "Kairana Model" was to ensure one single candidate against the BJP. This is the only arithmetic that ensures that the BJP does not win.

Mulayam Singh Yadav, former Samajwadi Party chief, has taken to lamenting that his son is a hard bargainer only with his own family (referencing uncle Shivpal Yadav's exit and founding of his own party), while virtually rolling over for other leaders and parties. Yadav Junior had rashly conceded 100 seats to the congress in their ill-starred alliance for the assembly election. The BJP romped home with a record majority. Even then, Mayawati had fielded a hundered Muslim candidates and ensured optimum cross-polarisation for the BJP.

However, Shah has ensured the BJP faces multiple candidates nearly everywhere in UP. Shivpal Yadav's party, which is set to cut the SP's votes, is apparently funded by the BJP. Yadav was blunt, telling me,"I don't like my nephew (Akhilesh) who has insulted me. I may do business with the BJP".

The uncle's intentions may be public but "Bua" Mayawati has so far kept quiet on a post-poll deal with the BJP. A pointer is her closest aide Satish Mishra's relative by marriage, Anuradha Mishra, joining the BJP on March 9. More acid reflux for the opposition.

Karthik S wrote:So western UP is more difficult to win than eastern.

No sometimes it helps consolidate non-muslim vote across Cast lines. The kind happened in 2014 elections

The dynasty crooks want everyone to roll over and play dead for Italian filth

Some of you guys are very optimistic. Good to see but its not done until its done. Lets wait for 23rd May onlee.
Oh and of course, please do vote.

Chinmayanand wrote:NDA : 350+
BJP : 280+
BJP in UP : 50+

In Dilbu saar's absence,

BJP will lose only !!!

We all need to watch the turnout for the polls.A high turnout favors BJP. Kairana 2018 didn't see significant transfer of votes between mahagathbandhan parties.

The heart of the issue is that BJP supporters dont show up to vote. While the core SP/BSP/INC supporter will always vote. BJP need to strengthen local booth/constituency level resources to drive voting. Josh at Booth level ensures higher voting. This time you can see it.

hanumadu wrote:

Yagnasri wrote:Just watch % of votes. If there is good % of voting chances of BJP will improve. If not, we are in a problem.

That hasn't been the case in the recent assembly elections.

Assembly elections follow different math. They are less influenced by national politics. Anti-incumbency was a major factor in the recent assembly elections.

Hindi heartland may betray BJP. Samuday vishesh a large part of which votes INC as well will move to SP-BSP alliance. SP's Yadav base is largely intact.

even in blackhole called AP am getting reports that BJP will get more votes for LS than VS. BJP may not win any there but will change equations in the state if BJP crosses 15% voteshare.

Mihaylo wrote:

Chinmayanand wrote:NDA : 350+
BJP : 280+
BJP in UP : 50+

In Dilbu saar's absence,

BJP will lose only !!!

Need the BJP to cross the simple majority on its own so it needs 273 by itself to be on the safe side and thus immunized against any malevolent "coalition dharma" politics as practiced by the unlamented MMS. The rest of the BJP allies would then be manageable to a very large extent.

The BJP ally in MAH is a prime example of what a rabid, unprincipled party with delusions of grandeur can actually do in terms of optics, as well as if given the slightest chance, economics and national security.

Any and every party (including bengali, tamil and oriya parties) will align with the BJP if it falls short of numbers in the hope of riding roughshod over the center as one party from undivided AP did with the ABA govt.

The malicious role of the (unelected) "three muskeeters" who actually ran the then BJP govt is not widely known or even discussed. One was an eyetalian trojan for sure and the lootyens mafia, practiced puppet masters that they are, held a near impregnable sway over the govt.

Ghaziabad 2014 = 56% voting
Ghaziabad 2019 = 60% upto now

What is happening in Bengal? Heard that BJP workers have beat TMC? if true then it is a very strategic shift.

manish singh,
Don't post 543 behind the paywall data for the following
- guy needs the money to survive
- you have paid while we have not

If Dr. Patil posts a tweet then its ok to post or link as that is public domain.
We need credible pollsters and not those fakes.

Having said that, I wont delete your post as it confirms other sources.

Lok Sabha 2019: Andhra Witnesses Murder, EVM Vandalisation, Brawls Amidst Simultaneous Polls

Amidst all the usual flares, facing double the heat of simultaneous elections for the Assembly and Parliamentary constituencies of Andhra Pradesh, a Telugu Desam Party (TDP) worker, Chinta Bhaskar Reddy was hacked to death near a polling booth at Veerapuram in Tadipatri constituency of Anantapur district, reports The Hindu.

Among other developments across the state, TDP candidate for Sattenapalli Assembly constituency, Kodela Siva Prasada Rao, who also happens to be incumbent speaker of the Legislative Assembly, along with his gun man were allegedly man handled by YSR activists.

With the election frenzy mainly hovering around three parties – TDP which is seeking re-election, YSR Congress which is a strong contender and actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena, a new entrant – cases of violence and related issues are making more noise than the usual process of polling. Voting is underway for 175 Assembly seats and 25 Parliamentary seats in the state.

MLC Buddha Venkanna was taken into preventive custody in Vijayawada as he was staging protests against a few faulty EVMs.

In Gooty, a Jana Sena candidate, Madhusudhan Gupta is being arrested for breaking an EVM.

The death of a YSR worker is also being reported – further details awaited.

Paid 5forty3. Only time he has gone wrong was when he was using only modeling to predict elections. In India you need ground workers as voting is very complex.

Suraj wrote:http://www.5forty3.in/5forty3_login.php

Did the needful. Thank you

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1116 ... 29057?s=19
Dr. Pravin Patil

One wonders how Congress is going to survive this election... the party had won paltry 7 out of 91 seats in this phase last time, today it is struggling to lead even in 3!

40 mins ago

ramana wrote:manish singh,
Don't post 543 behind the paywall data for the following
- guy needs the money to survive
- you have paid while we have not

Strongly second that. Dr. Braveen Badil is doing a lot of hard work....his teams are on the ground in some 400 LS constituencies sending data on poll booth level for his analytics engine. He is judiciously selecting what to post publicly, what to paywall, and what to not share at all. Subscribers should not violate copyright.

I think he will probably tweet a summary of his bredictions for each phase.

I am not plugging for Dr. Badil, but for serious election followers a subscription to 5forty3 seems the only way to get reliable predictions for the next 40 days. Especially our colleagues like "crams" will be able to set their minds at rest...!

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1116 ... 75393?s=19

Dr. Praveen Patil 7 hrs ago :

There is celebratory atmosphere in Meerut from where we are covering today's polling. 8/10 voters who vote for BJP say they are voting for @narendramodi & a strong India... Here people believe elections are simply a formality.
Meerut was classified "vulnerable" in our tracker!

Meerut and vulnerable ? That area has strong religious fault lines it was a relatively safe BJP seat. BJP wins whenever there is Hindu consolidation.

ANI releases voter turnout.
Andaman & Nicobar Islands (1 seat) - 70.67%, Andhra Pradesh (25 seats) - 66%, Chhattisgarh (1 seat) - 56%, Telangana (17 seats) - 60%, Uttarakhand (5 seats) - 57.85%, Jammu & Kashmir (2 seats) - 54.49%. Final turnout is expected to rise.

Low turnout it seems. Where is UP, WB?

negi wrote:Meerut and vulnerable ? That area has strong religious fault lines it was a relatively safe BJP seat. BJP wins whenever there is Hindu consolidation.

Super vulnerable this time, let me explain:

2014 BJP Rajendra Agarwal got 47.86% votes

BSP Mohammed Shahid Akhlak got 27% votes

SP Shahid Manzoor got 19.01% votes

Congress' Nagma got 3.86% votes

AAP's Himanshu Singh got 1.06% votes

Nota = 0.47 %
_______________

Now why it's vulnerable this time?
2019

BJP = Rajendra Agarwal

BSP =Haji Mohammed Yaqoob

Congress = Harendra Agarwal { Last time 2014 votes got divided among 3 Muslim candidates SO THIS TIME CONGRESS HAS HINDU "AGARWAL" CANDIDATE to SPLIT HINDU VOTES.

LAST TIME 49.87% VOTES WERE SPLIT BETWEEN 3 MUSLIM CANDIDATES ,

NOW THEY WILL GO TO ONE CANDIDATE.

BJP WILL FACE THAT PLUS VOTE SPLIT BETWEEN 2 HINDU AGARWAL CANDIDATES.

I WOULD STILL BE SURPRISED IF BJP WINS.

Manish_Sharma wrote:^ Super vulnerable this time, let me explain:
Now why it's vulnerable this time?
2019

BJP = Rajendra Agarwal

BSP =Haji Mohammed Yaqoob

Congress = Harendra Agarwal { Last time 2014 votes got divided among 3 Muslim candidates SO THIS TIME CONGRESS HAS HINDU "AGARWAL" CANDIDATE to SPLIT HINDU VOTES.

LAST TIME 49.87% VOTES WERE SPLIT BETWEEN 3 MUSLIM CANDIDATES ,

NOW THEY WILL GO TO ONE CANDIDATE.

BJP WILL FACE THAT PLUS VOTE SPLIT BETWEEN 2 HINDU AGARWAL CANDIDATES.

I WOULD STILL BE SURPRISED IF BJP WINS.

Also note how the names are also so similar "Rajendra Agarwal" and "Harendra Agarwal".

twitter



An ingenious way of ‘booth jamming’ has been conceived by a nervous pol party in W. Bengal. A voter will demand to see the VVPAT of his vote and, when shown, will claim that this was not how he voted at the EVM. The resulting hullabaloo will slow down voting. @ECISVEEP be alert

twitter

There is a clear pattern emerging from the two constituencies in W. Bengal. Peaceful polling in booth where para military forces have been deployed and tension & intimidation where state police is the only force. In the latter, non-TMC agents have been driven out & so have voters

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56% turnout in 7 Lok Sabha constituencies in Maharashtra. 63% in 2014

Anyone from MH could let us know if this is a bad sign for BJP?

^yes very bad sign

Kanson wrote:320/400 tally: bjp 320 ; nda close to 400


Last time (2014) i somehow managed to predict nda score in the bracket much closer to actual results in poll conducted here. This time i'm using same methodology to give this number. Last time my number was accurate, better than the Mission Shakti Asat test accuracy if i discount last time mistakes by adjusting my number based on exit polls. So this time this is my final number. No changes! Cheerio!

dude..i ll treat you at a 5 star hotel if your prediction is true ..but i think its over optimistic

I too think it's overly optimistic. Bit jingoistic.

PUBLIC SERVICE MESSAGE

Once in a while, we get a WhatsApp message that has us wondering if the contents are indeed true.

So when I got a message today titled "Who is Chor????" (sic), I decided to do a 10-minute fact-check using nothing more than Google and headline news-items.

Unless I am in a time-warp (NRIs are frequently accused so), and all Indians today routinely have assets worth Rs.100 crore+ (USD 10 Million+) something is seriously wrong here.

I have merely added a hyperlink under each claim made in the original WhatsApp message. All claims are in quotes "", and the language has not been changed.
-----

"#Chandrababu Naidu's 3 years old grandson has net worth of 19 crores . But he says , Modi chor hai"
https://www.ndtv.com/andhra-pradesh-new ... im-1951350

"#Mayawati owns 5000 crore declared assets earned out of her agricultural income . She is one of the most successful farmers . she thinks Modi chor hai"
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 432755.cms

"#Akhilesh increased Rs 1300 crore assets in just one term of CM !! But he thinks Modi chor hai !!"
https://www.thequint.com/news/hot-news/ ... h-akhilesh

"#SoniaGandhi is the 4th richest politician in the world without even occupying any position . She was not even employed anywhere . She & her son also think Modi chor hai ."
https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-s ... rt-1928180

"#Pawar -a king of wealth also thinks Modi chor Hai ."
https://www.hindustantimes.com/lok-sabh ... DV9TN.html

"#KamalNath and his aides stash away Rupees 281 cr ill gotten wealth which was seized in a raid by IT but chor toh Modi hai"
https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok ... 2019-04-09

"#AhmedPatel is named in Christian Michele statements for kickbacks in #AugustaWestland. but chor to modi hai"
https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok ... 2019-04-09
https://www.republicworld.com/election- ... ghlaq-road

"#Chidambaram and family is out on bail in scams from #aircelmaxis to #sharda but modi chor hai"
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 9UfHP.html

"#RahulGandhis assets grew from 55 lacs in 2004 to 15 cr in 2019. But he says Modi chor hai"
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lok-sab ... rs-2018089
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/we ... 165303.cms

"A failed politician like #AbhishekSanghavi from Congress also owns 1000 crore assets( thanks to Gandhi loyalty ) , but he says on TV - Modi chor hai ."
http://myneta.info/rajsab09aff/candidat ... ate_id=731

"Modi owns one apartment in ahmedabad and 3 lacs fixed deposit . His entire family is still working living as middle class inspite of he being CM of a rich industrial state of Gujarat for 13 years and 5 years as india PM !!!"
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 179236.ece

" See who is Chor?

If you don't vote for the correct person, in spite of seeing this, God only can save you, but one thing, be prepared to take the curse of your great grand children, for mortgaging India."

END PUBLIC SERVICE MESSAGE

My guess is either the BJP voters became complacent and stayed home or the opposition voters have given a walkover to 2019.

poor turnout in BJP bastion like West UP is worrying ! Urban areas are BJP strong hold if turn out is 40-50% there , then God save us!
peacefuls came out all guns blazing
This phase sealed fate on 91 seats
where is Dilbu?

Manish_Sharma wrote:^yes very bad sign

Guys, it is not going to be 300+. However, not to worry, we will just about eke it out in the end.

-M

Chintamani
‏ @IamIconoclast
2h2 hours ago

UP Tentative figures by ECI at 7 pm: Saharanpur 70.68, Kairana 62.10, Muzaffarnagar 66.66, Bijnor 65.4 , Meerut 63, Baghpat 63.09, Ghaziabad 57.60, NOIDA 60.15 - likely to go up by another 2%. Looks much better now. @Election_in #ChintamaniSpeaks #Elections2019
11 replies 38 retweets 68 likes

Chintamani
‏ @IamIconoclast

This looks terrific for BJP. Except Kairana, the turnout polling percentage is nearly as good or better than 2014. I am giving Bijnor and Muzaffarnagar to BJP now. Kairana and Baghpat in fight. 6/8 for BJP without a doubt
@Election_in #ChintamaniSpeaks #Elections2019


Chintamani
‏ @IamIconoclast

In Bihar, turnout polling percentage is higher on all seats at 5 pm itself. 4/4 for BJP in Bihar #ChintamaniSpeaks #Elections2019 @Election_in

Chintamani
‏ @IamIconoclast
52m52 minutes ago

Chintamani Retweeted Realist_Indian

That has definitely happened. Except Baghpat and Kairana, the other 6 are in the BJP bag and these two are on knife’s edge. #ChintamaniSpeaks #Elections2019 @Election_in

Chintamani added,
Realist_Indian
@India_Progress
If BJP has won 5-6 seats in West UP today then Modi is PM. Bcos that tells you a lot about which side the wind is blowing
6 replies 35 retweets 68 likes


Let's hope for the best. Lets not panic

CSDS says advantage BJP in UP. Fingers crossed yes, but not panicking yet.

West UP has the highest percent of Muslims. A solid 27% votebank.So it is not a BJP bastion specially the Jat belt.

AAP and MIM should do well in this election.