viewtopic.php?t=8020&hilit=krisna&start=440#p2678050krisna wrote: ↑13 Apr 2026 03:32
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continuation
wrt to the present situation in persian gulf
Big picture
Iran
1) big regional nation and a local power house - theocratic regime and declared to wipe out isreal /jew civilisation. has been using terr0ists groups- 3Hs-hamas houthis and hezbollah to fund its goal along with acquiring WMD primarily to confront isreal and usa. It is proud nation with its own historical upheavals. Recent one is since 1978 onwards. Prior to islamic revolution it was at friendly with isreal ( not waging wars or threatening isreal- more of pragmatic quiet diplomacy)
2) theocratic regime does not care about its own people except brainwash its own for its religious agenda with hatred towards kaafir ( isreal bearing the brunt - once Iran succeeds it will turn towards SDRes in Indian subcontinent)
Isreal
1) Another regional powerhouse but needs USA help since its inception to ward of attacks by its hostile enemies born out of religious hatred. iran as above has declared to wipe its existence.
2) isreal wants peace but never allowed to settle by its religious enemies since its birth. Had to constantly fight wars. Hence only way of survival is smoking out enemies before they take isreal out. This leads to sometimes over the top kinetic action.
usa
1) Big super power in its own right- hence will do everything to maintain its positon as superpower-regime changes wars and what not wherever and whenever it wants based on its perception to maintain its supremacy
2) Big stake in persian gulf due to its protection of isreal. It was one of the main pillars of support for isreal existence and will remain so as long it is a superpower. Basically Israel is its baby.
3) maintain petrodollar supremacy with Gulf as its anchor. Military is aimed at preserving this.
with the above big picture in mind -- rest will follow.
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About JPCOA/nuke treaty - we only hear about positive news regarding nuke capping etc.
But this is a narrow vision. obama team were focussed elsewhere namely in eastern europe baiting russian bear. Remember victoria nuland keegan etc team working day and night.
This treaty is really like
" operation successful but patient died" scenario.
The failures of this treaty is
1) It gave over several million dollars frozen assets to iran. (doubts of washington using its dollar reserve currency with sanctions and seizing it gave some caution to other countries. This accelerated with Russia assets seized by Biden admin-- de dollarisation )
2) removed sanctions on iran which helped it immensely - started to fund 3Hs in a big way. This increased funding continued despite the removal of nuke treaty by TACO. Iran did not do much to improve its own economic conditions of its people.
3) China iran deal later in 2021 of over 400 million deal of over 25 years when Obama 3rd term was focussed on poking russian bear. ( continuation of policies of obama earleir 1 and 2 terms) with neglect of iran actions.
4) Russia also deepened cooperation with iran though more related to its nuke reactors in bushehr etc . Not as big as china iran deal. But russia and china are big powers enough to help iran and withstand sufficient pressure by usa. Russia has its own axe to grind with getting bogged down in pakraine, syria influence lost etc
consequences of this treaty-- TACO breaking it is immaterial and is coincidental. (2018 broke the treaty , 2019 later had covid crisis etc )
increased moneies to iran -- increased funding towards 3 Hs terr0sists org which culminated in most deadly attacks on isreal since its birth as modern nation with over 1200 injured deaths etc -- lead to gaza conflict etc and 3 front wars for isreal-- isreal only reacted initially but now trying to be in active mode.
Houthis atacks on saudi and red sea corrdior attacks on ships etc.
Hezbollah attacks on north isreal
IOW the treaty ostensibly done to reduce nuke capability actually destabilized the entire gulf region with isreal , red sea saudi and other areas under increased stress.
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Iran treated the JCPOA as a tactical ploy on nuclear escalation, not a surrender of its military ambitions. But it actually used the economic sanctions releif to invest heavily in non‑nuclear but still potent weapons systems like non nuke ballistic missiles drones- more advanced ones than one seen earlier prior to the treaty - because of monies given thru sanctions relief.
Usa knows that iran agreed on nuke treaty as it wanted moneis- also but usa wanted itself to give some room as they were more focussed on russian front. IOW somewhat betrayed isreal despite isreal correct observations about the deal.
After TACO first term- obama 3rd term more focussed on russia and hence lost its gaze on iran.
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TACO
whatever one may say about TACO- he was spot on china and iran- but he is like monkey messing up everything he touches.
he was clear about china iran and dollar supremacy BRICS/de-dollarisation and will do anything to keep it up. This means petrodollar supremacy to be maintained-
1) iran is the thorn in gulf- take it out (regime change ) or at least bring it under petro-dollar - china will be affected- this in turn will make it buy usa tresuries bonds etc . Others will follow.
Negotiations and ongoing attacks and hormux blockade are all part of this. Probably first time in modern history - usa doing both bombing and talks in the same breath typical of TACO- as they say muddying the waters and keep everyone guessing- but he is clear in his ideas.
2) take out venezuela - bring it under petro dollar - hit china basically. ( whatever Donroe doctine etc is a side show). cuba is waiting for regime change.
3) he tried peace deal with Russia - so that he can take out china and maintain dollar supremacy. But obama terms wasted this opportunity by waging indirect war on russia. Putin kaka in no mood as he has upper hand. Europe looking like sore losers.
4) making friends with terroistan failed marshall munir for attacks on iran if needed thru terr0istan soil and airspace. This is separate from India.
5) he is willing to take short term pains but long term advantage for usa. probably fight till june to make a call or knowing him will go full hog and destroy Iran irrespective of local politics- mid term elections .
Foreign policy are mostly POTUS driven. He will have problems with congress post elections in november - will be lame duck POTUS, but he will maneuver on foreign policy as it is POTUS domain. He does not care about the rest.
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disadvantages of usa wrt iran
usa POTUSes have to bow before economic hardships and bodybags of americans .
They can lose elections -- hence have to be careful
They always have to look at local political base on any big decisions.
Iran has none of this to worry- no elections, no issues with people protests-simply fire on them and house them for prison time . iran is also smart - delay the war to prolong it towards november- this will be easy with local democrats congress in usa will work for iran weakening TACO( more towards hatred of TACO than genuine love for iran, but red green alliance is a sure thing in Democratic Party)
TACO now embarking on hormuz denial -- squeeze economy of iran - allow all ships, but deny ships from iranian ports ( which primarily deal with non dollar currencies).
china protesting obviously as they signed deal in 2021 with 400 million deal over 25 years etc as usa lost their gaze on persian gulf.
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Iran is in trouble --- internet blackouts-hence not clear. Iranians not sure whom to believe
no good leadership sort of rudderless but not completely. Has lost its weapons capabilities. But has enough missiles to pose a threat. Will play an awaiting game. Virtually no choice. Just wait it out. Iran cannot take on USA head on.
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Game changer will be TACO implementing full denial of oil carriers from iran coast-- china cannot stop usa though will protest.
India might get some sweet deals and asked to stop iran imports temporarily.
russia might get some sweet deals to help here.
usa war ships will stay outside hormuz starits but monitor the outer area towards arabian sea- they easily use satellites and other surveillance drones etc. Iran will find it difficult to use its missiles to fire at moving targets in sea more than few 100- 1000 miles . Usa will not have active soldiers die in this method. More safe and can choke iran economy. Only downfall is prolonged time needed for iran to collapse.
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