Bharat Rakshak

Baikul wrote:Interesting projections. One datapoint I'd want information on though- what has been the response when ISIS hit a town or area that was not Sunni? My point is that while they are a very formidable fighting force, we'll see how they do as an army if/ when they move into a totally unfamiliar cultural terrain. So I'm not expecting sweeping hordes rushing down the plains any time soon.

The "formidable fighting force" may be due to how weak their opponents are. The opponents are various groups who don't trust one another as is the cultural norm -any tribe/group west of Rajasthan can't be trusted even when one of them tell you the time of day.

ISiS on the other hand is allied with almost none.

sultans wrath - TAF F-solahs blasting al-bab

https://twitter.com/todayinsyria/status ... 7728855041

Rishi ji that's a great infographic.

UlanBatori wrote:B4 it is too late 4 all of us (and US) I hope someone writes a book on how ISIS is able to beat up conventional armies despite lack of air superiority or any serious air combat capability. This has completely overturned the notions of air force dominance that ruled the Gulf War and Afghanistan GOAT Phase 1. Note that now even the Pakiban is able to win in Afghanistan, and probably rules all of Helmand, Kandahar etc despite NATO pretences. What has changed? What happened to the famed pin-point accuracy of air-launched weapons? What are the chances that the Ummah actually obtains a conventional air force next time they sweep through a continent. Maybe Central Africa? Southern Europe?

Many Ummah nations already have a formidable air force. Turkey+GCC on paper would be an incredibly powerful air force. Saudi AF s packed to the brim with F-15s and Eurofighters. UAE F-16s are more advanced in some respects than even the USAF counterparts. We should worry about what would happen when they learn to actually use their shiny hardware. Looking at GCC performance in Yemen, I don't think we need to worry just yet.

BEIRUT, LEBANON (10:40 P.M.) - The jihadist rebels of Fatah Halab and Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham carried out another heinous massacre prior to leaving the last east Aleppo neighborhoods this past week, an SAA officer from the Republican Guard told Al-Masdar News on Friday.

Over 100 hostages from the Syrian Arab Army, mostly young men between the ages of 18-25, were summarily executed by the jihadist rebels prior to their departure from the Sukkari and Bustan Al-Qasr districts of east Aleppo.

"These massacred soldiers were comprised of men that were captured by the jihadist rebels over a four year span in the Aleppo Governorate; they were unable to smuggle their hostages from the Sukkari School, so they chose to execute them instead," the SAA officer added.

why were they allowed to escape freely after this?

UB, two things:

1) Have boots on the ground. Many, many ground troops are needed to achieve, consolidate, and capitalize on victories against insurrectionists like ISIS. Sustained deployment in the 3:1 ratio (at least) is a must. For each defending formation you need one attacking formation to engage, one to hold your own line, and one in reserve (or to outflank when opportunity provides). And once you win you cannot pull everyone out of there. Otherwise you end up playing whack-a-mole like the SAA: victory in one theatre is promptly followed by recapture of a recently liberated town in some other theatre.

2) Rewrite the rules of engagement, unilaterally if you need to. Right now the "state" actors have to fight according to things like the Geneva Convention while the non-state actors fight according to the Good Book onlee. That's not all: the photos you posted of French towns and villages in the aftermath of Operation Overlord provide a clue. When you join the fight, you must fight to win, regardless of collateral damage. Unfortunately, innocent people who have ended up with their settlements occupied by the likes of ISIS must likely suffer and die in large numbers before those settlements are ever going to be liberated. Property will most likely be destroyed in its entirety, and will need to be rebuilt. Reasonable measures can be taken to mitigate such things, but when those measures become paralysing obstacles to victory or begin to impose unacceptable costs on your war effort, you must embrace the inevitable.

We can consider 4GW to be made up of many components. Three of these components are
A) Limited conventional or semi-conventional engagement. Pitched battles far from civilian settlements, with insurgent formations that are operating at a near-conventional level of military formality (see Deir-ez-Zor and surrounding regions). Also missions to interdict supply lines, etc. of the insurgents.
B ) Prolonged proxy-insurgent vs. COIN ops in areas where there is extensive potential for collateral damage, i.e. towns and cities for the most part. Street-to-street, house-to-house battles at initial states. Securing neighbourhoods and providing civic amenities while guarding against sabotage and disruption for many months or years afterwards.
C) Information war: propaganda, cyber attacks etc. A LARGE part of this is the "human rights" propaganda that you use to attack your enemy when it is fighting against your proxies, and to attack your enemy's proxies when you are fighting them.

Air power for the most part is highly valuable in (A). It is of limited value in (B)... or at least, the Iraqi-Freedom type PGM raids are of limited value, while more innovative, less dramatic uses of air assets to snoop and sniff may be of more value. And in (C), your use of air power can actually count against you. If you care enough to let it.

good post rudradev ji +101 !

"The Road to Mosul: Reports from the Field"

American perspective from the Washington Institute. TIFWIW

A briefer, slicker perspective on Mosul by South Front.

One thing I must grant Putin. He knows how to leverage media... both satellite TV (RU.tv) and internet video (South Front) with a saturation barrage of information in perfectly-sized packages (neither too simplistic nor too detailed) with very high production values (lots of live footage and classy infographics). In this way he acquires, and holds on to vast amounts of global mind-share for the Russian viewpoint.

I think the difference is this:
1. Massive use of slave labor to dig tunnel network.
2. Massive use of slaves and virtually-enslaved civilian population as hostages and human shields.
3. Massive humanitarian investment in kitten shelters and pediatric/ob/gyn hospitals, like 100 per square mile.
4. Confident reliance on the stupidity of the average western reader/TV-watcher.
5. Investment in buying mediamouths.
6. Huge humanitarian influx of ATGMs to counter the ground armor.
7. Pure religious rejection of standard Paki Army whisky and zam-zam cola, replaced by Red Bull/ Green Goat Energy drinks spiked with a bit of hashish.

Most weapons, bombs found in Aleppo was stored exclusively in hospitals. The terrorists in Aleppo had converted hospitals into weapons and ammunition warehouses. There were thus simply no functioning hospitals in Aleppo unlike lies peddled by CNN/BBC. Where hospitals were not available the terrorists had used schools as weapons warehouses. Most handlers of these terrorists operate in underground facility system away from spotlight.

article that links mubarak hussain's threat to Russia & killing of Russian ambassador.

http://www.activistpost.com/2016/12/rus ... sible.html

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha

List of Turkish armor which was destroyed/heavily damaged by IS during assault on West al-Bab city & at National Hospital

West/East Ghouta has resumed to see a lot of action, the SAA is advancing in Wadi Barada and Ayn Al-Fejeh valey, this is the water supply to all Damascus area, under the terrorists in the past 4 years.

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=33.61 ... 052;215149

The terrorists in the West Ghouta/Quneytra area are negotiating a reconciliation with the Syrian Government, this is a terrorist breeding place for 5 years, up to now Beit Saber, Beit Teemah, Kafr Hawar and Heenah have accepted the deal while only the filthy village of Beit Jinn did not.

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=33.33 ... 5&z=13&m=b

Damascus: Takfiri militias armed in the Valley of the Barada Damascus countryside contaminated spring Fijeh feeder line to the city of Damascus and its environs diesel.

Damascus: Water Foundation cut off all nutrient sources of water for the capital and its environs

The militants in Ain AlFeejeh in rural Damascus have partially cut off the water supply to #Damascus

Also they have poured fuel and other toxic materials inside the main water pipeline of
Ain AlFeejeh that supplies #Damascus with water

The general establishment for water supply immediately seperated the polluted water before it mixes with the water reserve of #Damascus

A Russian military police battalion has made a forced march from the Hmeimim airbase to Aleppo to ensure security of Russian advisers, a demining squad and medics as well as to help Syrian authorities to maintain order in the liberated city, the Russian Defense Ministry said Friday.

According to the statement, the battalion, which is manned only with contracted soldiers, will ensure security of the reconciliation center’s personnel, as well as Russian deminers and medics arriving in Aleppo.

“The battalion will also help Syrian authorities in Aleppo to maintain law and order in the liberated city,” the ministry added.

NATO auditor found murdered
any link with NATO weapons found in hands of ISIS ?

Chandelon was dealing in particular with issues on countering terrorism funding. According to the media, he was talking recently about strange phone calls he received. The investigation is being continued.

As Pravda.Ru reported, NATO's budgets have been growing lately. The latest increase was by 26bln dollars up to 918bln dollars. And the US media wonders what for NATO needs this.

The body was detected 140km away off his work and 100km away off the city of Lens, where he lived.

http://www.pravdareport.com/news/hotspo ... 86-nato-0/

Aleppo’s small Catholic minority are preparing the Saint Elias Cathedral for its first Christmas mass in five years.

After the recent case of the Turkish POWS being burned alive, which followed on the heels of several such acts perpetrated by ISIS, I was wondering what it was about these guys and burning folks to death.

Yesterday I was reading Fire and Sword in the Sudan by Rudolf Slatin and came across the following line:

In 1770 they wrested the province of Kordofan from the Darfur kings, but five years later it was retaken by the latter, and remained under their control until conquered in 1822 by Mohammed Bey Dafterdar, the brother-in-law of Ismail Pasha, who, it will be remembered, was burnt alive at Shendi[

And while Sudan is not a neighbour to Syria, that got me thinking that this jolly little tradition seems to goes back a ways in that general area. 15 minutes of rudimentary research (wiki, frontpagemag.com) later:

The Koran says about Hypocrites: Allah has cursed them and prepared the fires of Hell for them (e.g., 4:145, 9:68, 9:73, and 48:6); and Allah commanded Muhammad to “strive hard against” and “be harsh” to the Hypocrites (9:73).

In December 627 Muhammad led an attack against the Al-Mustalaq tribe. Because that tribe fought back, Muhammad ordered their fortifications to be set on fire, even though the Muslims knew there were women and children inside.

John Braithwaite, staying in Morocco in the late 1720s, says that apostates from Islam would be burnt alive:
THOSE that can be proved after Circumcision to have revolted, are stripped quite naked, then anointed with Tallow, and with a Chain about the Body, brought to the Place of Execution, where they are burnt. Similarly, he notes that non-Muslims entering mosques or being blasphemous against Islam will be burnt, unless they convert to Islam.

I'm sure there's more literature on it, but to me the the bottomline - call it context or insight into the psyche of your garden variety ISIS thug - is that burning someone alive is the historically and theologically approved way of displaying great and terminal contempt for the non-believer, especially when done to someone who's on the surface your co-religionist. You're not just killing them brutally, you're calling them apostates or kaffir while you're doing it.

In short, when you see the next burning video (or preferably don't) you're watching an agency of God (ISIS) following the unshakeable dictates of tradition, culture and religion onlee.

One of the executed soldiers, Fethi Şahin from Konya, once defended IS and al-Baghdadi on his Facebook page:

http://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/ ... 487917.png
https://i.imgur.com/IXnNoAu.jpg

His page:

https://m.facebook.com/fethi.sahin1

he belongs to gendermes intelligence, so if his brief was to appear sympathetic to ISIS, then that could also explain his posts on facebook.

Russia has deployed military police battalion in Aleppo

https://lenta.ru/news/2016/12/23/mp/

are these the chechen units being deployed to Syria

Aerial footage of a IS-VBIED charging a Turkish/FSA position near al-Bab, freely being able to detonate the explosives next to a couple of Turkish tanks/armoured vehicles:

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/st...32712731201538

Shocking how poor the outer perimeter is being secured.

Chechens aka military police arrive in Syria

Reports coming in from eas aleppo that the nusra terrorists murdered 100 SAA pow's before retreating from east aleppo. Mass graves hurriedly dug to dispose the bodies.

Rania Khalek ‏@RaniaKhalek
These executions were apparently carried out by Ahrar al Sham. Did they tell their, US mouthpiece @Charles_Lister, about it?
https://twitter.com/raniakhalek/

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel
Congrats EU, you're inheriting these moderate rebels that massacred over 100 hostages in east Aleppo.

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel
All of these westerners working at DC think tanks were trying to tell us Ahrar Al-Sham were "moderates" - looks like blood is on their hands

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel
CC: @BilalKareem - maybe he can tell us why these men were executed before we showed him and his Al-Qaeda brothers mercy?

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... st-aleppo/

habal wrote:Aerial footage of a IS-VBIED charging a Turkish/FSA position near al-Bab, freely being able to detonate the explosives next to a couple of Turkish tanks/armoured vehicles: Shocking how poor the outer perimeter is being secured.

Looks like they don't have the expert ATGM operators around them to take out the VBIEDs. OTOH, they also don't have the Dazzlers. Erdogan's scheme to depopulate his own armored corps(es). These fellows are worse off than Saudis vs. Houthis: here they are going to get massacred.

habal wrote:Reports coming in from eas aleppo that the nusra terrorists murdered 100 SAA pow's before retreating from east aleppo. Mass graves hurriedly dug to dispose the bodies.

so they violated the basic tenet of the ceasefire deal which was exchange of prisoners and locations of remains.

no sympathy now when the inevitable hammer blows fall on Idlib and there will be no place to run any further, than the loving arms of turkey and EU.

agitpapa ‏@agitpapa 7h7 hours ago
agitpapa Retweeted Elijah J. Magnier
Turks have killed 200 Al Bab civilians. ISIS is showing them it punished the Turks. ISIS also cares 4 the wounded. Hearts & minds.

Elijah J. Magnier
‏@EjmAlrai
#ISIS showing the burning of the Turkish soldiers on a big screen to Al-Bab inhabitants. See faces and ages. #Turkey #Syria.

Abdullah Bozkurt ‏@abdbozkurt 12h12 hours ago
All 43 #ISIL suspects in conservative bastion #Konya, #Turkey, were released: 17 after questioning by police, 20 by prosecutor, 6 by judge.

Turkey with its blow hot blow cold policy indicates it wants the ISIS to be sarkari mussalmans like the turkoman factions of the other jihadis like shams and nusra. but ISIS is like TTP and wants the whole pie and office of the CEO, not a kept dog of some other power structure which cavorts with the west but talks pure islam at home.

this is the same fight that pakistan is perpetually engaged in - some factions like LET and JEM are sarkari terrorists while others like lashkar e jhangvi , pakiban and TTP are free-range terrorists and obey no master.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-politics

Flush with success in supporting his ally in Syria, Vladimir Putin has a new ambition: supporting another one, this time in Libya. The effort is beginning to undermine the UN-backed government there.

Russian President Putin’s government is befriending a powerful military leader, Khalifa Haftar, who now controls more territory than any other faction in the tumultuous, oil-rich North African state. In two visits to Moscow in the past half-year, Haftar met the defense and foreign ministers, plus the national-security chief, to seek support. A top ally also visited last week and Russia is supplying funds and military expertise to Haftar’s base in the east.


Khalifa Haftar at Russia’s foreign ministry.Photographer: Vasily Maximov/AFP/Getty Images
“The longer we wait, the more likely it becomes that Haftar wins,” said Riccardo Fabiani, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at Eurasia Group in London. “It’s clear he’s getting military, financial and diplomatic support.”

By backing Haftar in his standoff with the government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj in the west, Russia could bolster its role in the region and secure billions of dollars from Libya in arms and other contracts. At the same time, it also risks igniting more conflict in the divided country, where forces loyal to Haftar, as well as rival armed groups, are accused by the UN of human-rights abuses including torture and extra-judicial killings.

Other players also support Haftar, though he’s opposed by powerful militias mostly across central and western Libya, where 70 percent of the population lives. Among his allies: the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, whose ex-army chief president, Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, has close ties to the Kremlin. Putin branded the NATO-led campaign that overthrew Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi as a “crusade.”

smerch them.

Al-Masdar News ‏@TheArabSource 9h9 hours ago
Jaysh Al-Islam announces full mobilization of forces in East Ghouta

Rana H. ‏@RanaHarbi 17h17 hours ago
Nasrallah: The support Syria terrorist groups received from Arab states in 5 years is 100 times more than what Palestinians got in 60 years.

Farrukh Abbas ‏@Farrukh_Abbas12 23h23 hours ago
There is no doubt that #Russia is ruled by Rawafidh, it even named it's fighter jet after a #Shia Ayatollah. #Sukhoi

syria and iran will never again accept a russian brokered ceasefire deal. piles of corpses are still being counted. russia acted in undue haste and will now pay the price in reduced credibility with its partners in the fight.


Elijah J. Magnier
‏@EjmAlrai
One of the differences between #Russia & #Damascus :request Jihadists/rebels 2deliver POW be4 leaving east #Aleppo. ALL #SAA found executed.

note that turkey does not mean the fall guys of the turkish army here, but the AKP deep state who report to Erdogan directly. turkish army/AF will be used as the sultan sees fit, or else they will be going to jail as the coup amply proved.


Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 8h8 hours ago
8. Daesh is still useful to USA, KSA & Turkey in Nineveh, Anbar, & Eastern Syria. USA & Turkey differ over its continuation in Raqqa.

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 8h8 hours ago
7. We will all know when there is a genuine rift between Turkey & Daesh, if it ever happens, as Daesh will then target AKP inside Turkey.

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 8h8 hours ago
6. USA could easily ensure the defeat of SAA at Deir Ezzor by bombing SAA again - Daesh would then be very hard to evict for years to come.

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 8h8 hours ago
5. KSA, meanwhile, is re-arming Sunni tribes & Salafist militias in Anbar with a view to a new civil war in Iraq & a Sunnistan in E Syria.

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 8h8 hours ago
4. Increasingly clear to ISF & PMUs that USA is playing games in Mosul, delaying the defeat of Daesh for political & strategic reasons.

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 8h8 hours ago
3. USA does not wish Daesh to move men & resources from Deir Ezzor to Raqqa, however, & bombs them when they try to move in that direction.

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 8h8 hours ago
2. The USA insists on leaving open access to Mosul from the West so Daesh can re-supply and move fighters to & from Palmyra & Deir Ezzor.

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 8h8 hours ago
1. The row between Turkey & Daesh over Al Bab is essentially theatrical. Turkey still arms & supplies Daesh in Iraq (and the USA lets it).

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 19h19 hours ago
Whilst the slaughter in Al Bab continues
.
Russia permits it
USA remains silent - @brett_mcgurk
Assad looks the other way
Turks rejoice