India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[abhik]

Has the government come out and clarified where exactly PP14 and the LAC is? No (correct me if I'm wrong here), any narrative of victory etc depends on this. And if you are obfuscating, of course you will invite doubt and questions. In such kinds of situations, if the shoe was on the other foot i.e. the congies were in charge and doing this then I'd ask questions too.

[V_Raman]

How can the govt clarify the LAC when there is none! That is why it is called LAC instead of an absolute LOC!!

It is a military to military ground level perception which need not be made public.

[chetak]

वैमानिकी@nileshjrane · 5h
My sources tell me, the Chinese didn't retreat because of the hard slap they received from IA on 15 June or the rising Galwan River. No. The real reason is, Shukla ji constantly moving LAC eastwards. PLA feared if they stayed there longer soon the LAC would reach near G219..!! twitter.com/ajaishukla/sta…

[abhik]

That's bizarre thing to say, so tomorrow if PLA lands up outside Delhi and the government can shrug it off saying that's where the new "perception" of the LAC.

Added: AFAIK LAC for the GOI and Army is not a line that changes based on anybody's perception, they know EXACTLY where it runs. That we may have physically lost control over some parts is a different matter.

[milindc]

Shenxianwan: The ‘toughest’ China post that guards Karakoram Pass

Radar at Karakoram Pass
The Karakoram Pass has seen Chinese troops coming and staying at the pass for a day or two and returning.
Satellite images have also caught a vehicle-based phased array radar located at Karakoram pass with the array directed towards India.

I don't think this was posted before.

[KLNMurthy]

SuSwamy has gone rogue ... No wonder he has been kept at arms length from government. This while there are OSINT sat image analysis backing the disengagement.

However, there is a caveat. Because the move is step-by-step, Chinese have not gone back far enough between F4-8 on Pangang Tso.

https://twitter.com/NewsX/status/1280839232819322883

#SwamySaysOnNewsX | I challenge the government to produce evidence of Chinese withdrawal from Indian territory: Subramanian Swamy (@Swamy39 ) BJP Rajya Sabha MP speaks to NewsX’s @Priyascorner

Maybe this is a noob pooch, but isn't the LAC in Ladakh actually between Ladakh UT and chinese-occupied Aksai Chin?

If that is correct, then I guess I am very confused about the whole drama that "China has moved into Indian territory, and must be kicked out, otherwise we lost H&D." Because the whole of Aksai Chin is Indian territory, so they have been in India territory since 1962, and never left.

I understand saying that "China has encroached further into Indian territory than they already have," but the discourse that "China has occupied Indian territory (meaning in 2020)" seems brain-dead to me.

Am I grossly in error here?

[pankajs]

^^
Right!

They ARE on Indian territory since 1950, They may or may not have encroached further in 2020 @ Galwan.

[Rishirishi]

Gurus, can you decode Mike Pompeo's statement, especially th bolded part:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indi ... SKBN2492D7



What does 'doing their best' mean? Pappu and his slaves like Ajai Crooklaw will now sieze on this and say 'no evidence' of Chincom troops killed as crooklaw said in his NYT propaganda attack on ModiJi.

Among all the asinine attacks on ModiJi, the most asinine of all of them was from some Hindu reporter asking "who will bring justice to the 20 troops killed" to a BJP spokesman on a debate. Even assuming the question has validity for those martyred in war, the insinuation that somehow ModiJi must be punished as justice for the troops martyred is most seditious and shameful.

Perhaps he wants to imply India could do with some US help(arms/intel) which is OK. Also gajar also needs some friction with the dragon in order to avoid getting halwaoed in November

Remember that such statements are meant for the public, it has little to do with reality. My thughts are;

If you want to build a front against china, you have to play the victim. The good against the bad. Human psychology is such that it naturally supports the weak. So now China is being painted as the big, bad aggressor against the peaceful "helpless" neighbors. The next logical step would be to beef up militaries of the frontline states.

[Jarita]

This is something I am wary off. The jingoism in India of the wild wild west cheering us on. This is something all of us should be cautious off. You see a lot of RWers including everyones favorite - That Abhijit guy, who are happy becoming a vassal state of the west.

https://twitter.com/healingbyhenry/stat ... 0722067456

Western globalists have been blowing smoke up India’s rear for the last decade.

The manipulative message was, “You’re destined for greatness. You’re one of us. And the only one stopping you is China.”

To the western Anglo imperialist, India’s role is to soak up Chinese bullets so the Anglo FVEYS can come in and declare victory

We have taken enough bullets from and for the anglo's including WW2. We should ensure that our and only our interests are paramount in any negotiation and situation.

[Manish_Sharma]

^very deep insights.

This is what I think too specially since Doklam there's a feverish pitch for war with China+buy f21+join Quad+cancel S400.

[vimal]

This is something I am wary off. The jingoism in India of the wild wild west cheering us on. This is something all of us should be cautious off. You see a lot of RWers including everyones favorite - That Abhijit guy, who are happy becoming a vassal state of the west.

https://twitter.com/healingbyhenry/stat ... 0722067456

Western globalists have been blowing smoke up India’s rear for the last decade.

The manipulative message was, “You’re destined for greatness. You’re one of us. And the only one stopping you is China.”

To the western Anglo imperialist, India’s role is to soak up Chinese bullets so the Anglo FVEYS can come in and declare victory

We have taken enough bullets from and for the anglo's including WW2. We should ensure that our and only our interests are paramount in any negotiation and situation.

The original tweet was from @CaliCali2000. When i analyzed his/her tweets it's basically a Chinese propaganda handle that retweets SCMP, GT and other pro CCP media houses. Folks on this board should know better than to give credence to such Chinese bots.

[darshan]

^very deep insights.

This is what I think too specially since Doklam there's a feverish pitch for war with China+buy f21+join Quad+cancel S400.

What's the reason for chinese to not recognize it? Or what's in it for chinese to play along with it?

[pankajs]

https://www.academia.edu/3575075/Ladakh ... _Unchanged
Ladakh- Changing, yet Unchanged

Found this free book on academia.edu; Looks like a travel diary; Read a couple of pages and was able to locate a couple of new features between Pangang Tso and Chang Chenmo river.

Seems to be interesting for folks who want to familiarize with North/East Ladakh. Free to download. About some 370+ pages.

[pankajs]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO8gaJqRa6A
China's political leadership would have given orders to PLA to kill Indian soldiers : Menon

[Jarita]

This is something I am wary off. The jingoism in India of the wild wild west cheering us on. This is something all of us should be cautious off. You see a lot of RWers including everyones favorite - That Abhijit guy, who are happy becoming a vassal state of the west.

https://twitter.com/healingbyhenry/stat ... 0722067456




We have taken enough bullets from and for the anglo's including WW2. We should ensure that our and only our interests are paramount in any negotiation and situation.

The original tweet was from @CaliCali2000. When i analyzed his/her tweets it's basically a Chinese propaganda handle that retweets SCMP, GT and other pro CCP media houses. Folks on this board should know better than to give credence to such Chinese bots.

Thanks for the unsolicited advice. There is propaganda and hot air on both sides and if we are contemptuous of those who want us to smoke the peace pipe while our territory is being salami sliced, we must also hold at a distance those who are pushing us on to sacrifice our men and provide a base.
Fact is that there is no live lost for India by the anglos. Witness how they are shutting the doors and raise not an eyebrow when the attacks are from the western border.
This false love is only because they want Indian soldiers to die on their behalf. They want to kill two birds with one stone.
Point is that we may very well have to sacrifice lives but not for the benefit of our colonialists.
Enough said on this.

[Raveen]

This is something I am wary off. The jingoism in India of the wild wild west cheering us on. This is something all of us should be cautious off. You see a lot of RWers including everyones favorite - That Abhijit guy, who are happy becoming a vassal state of the west.

https://twitter.com/healingbyhenry/stat ... 0722067456




We have taken enough bullets from and for the anglo's including WW2. We should ensure that our and only our interests are paramount in any negotiation and situation.

The original tweet was from @CaliCali2000. When i analyzed his/her tweets it's basically a Chinese propaganda handle that retweets SCMP, GT and other pro CCP media houses. Folks on this board should know better than to give credence to such Chinese bots.

Thank you for looking into this, even without looking into this I knew this was Han propoganda. I was hopeful our smart members don't fall for Chinese smoke up their butts.

[banrjeer]

This is something I am wary off. The jingoism in India of the wild wild west cheering us on. This is something all of us should be cautious off. You see a lot of RWers including everyones favorite - That Abhijit guy, who are happy becoming a vassal state of the west.

https://twitter.com/healingbyhenry/stat ... 0722067456

Western globalists have been blowing smoke up India’s rear for the last decade.

The manipulative message was, “You’re destined for greatness. You’re one of us. And the only one stopping you is China.”

To the western Anglo imperialist, India’s role is to soak up Chinese bullets so the Anglo FVEYS can come in and declare victory

We have taken enough bullets from and for the anglo's including WW2. We should ensure that our and only our interests are paramount in any negotiation and situation.

This is hugely different from shipping Indian troops for WW1 and WW2 to fight for others. In this case India is defending its own territory for its own sake, not for others. The messaging and support from outside is interesting but secondary.

[Manish_Sharma]

^very deep insights.

This is what I think too specially since Doklam there's a feverish pitch for war with China+buy f21+join Quad+cancel S400.

What's the reason for chinese to not recognize it? Or what's in it for chinese to play along with it?

Chinese can't help themselves being slimey, nasty and backstabbing is their nature, they have lots of reasons themselves, here 10 reasons given by
SSridhar ji :

LakshmanPST & suryag, there is never a single objective with the Chinese. They roll in multiple ones carefully into their move and try to achieve a few, like two steps forward, one step back. Of course, the priorities of different objectives are different and that is opaque to us. But, we should consider all of the following:

To ‘Teach India a lesson’ as in 1962 [or in Vietnam] for its omissions & commissions so far

To put India ‘in its place’, a feeling that has been growing in China especially after c. 2008

Grab as much real-estate as possible during this Wuhan Corona virus time

Provide more buffer to the G219 Highway

Settle the border dispute by ‘force/deception’ to achieve its larger timeline goals [ c. 2035 & 2050 ]

Protect Gilgit-Baltistan – the Critical chokepoint for CPEC

To influence India’s strategic / tactical decisions (Quad, WHO)

Deflect attention from within to outside, especially India

Raise national fervor amidst Corona, Trade War, 5G, Huawei/ZTE, Hong Kong, Economy

Show to the rest of the world, especially the US & its allies, who the hegemon is

One or multiple (more likely) of the above objectives

But it's also true that they are under American thumb:

https://zeihan.com/a-failure-of-leaders ... -of-china/

It isn’t so much that the Americans have always had the ability to destroy China in a day (although they have), but instead that it is only the Americans that could create the economic and strategic environment that has enabled China to survive as long as it has. Whether or not the proximate cause for the Chinese collapse is homegrown or imported from Washington is largely irrelevant to the uncaring winds of history, the point is that Xi believes the day is almost here.

The War with China is inevitable, but the timing must not be determined by chellaney/shukla/rahul gandhi pressurizing Govt. to hurry into it.

Modi is the man in Hot Seat. He has the overview, if he sees it's in the interest of nation to avoid war for few years then He should have the space to maneuver that way.

This feverish "....oh govt missed opportunity for war with China 2017 in Doklam already, let's not miss this chance now...." seems to have agenda of pushing nation into war for benefit of the west.

[Rishirishi]

This false love is only because they want Indian soldiers to die on their behalf. They want to kill two birds with one stone.
Point is that we may very well have to sacrifice lives but not for the benefit of our colonialists.
Enough said on thi

Love does not come into play in international politics, only interest do. USA/west are on top and would it it to stay that way. They dread and fear the day they have to accept not being the supreme masters of the globe. As of now they need to limit the influence of China. For this they need India just like they needed TSP against the Soviets. Make no mistake, they may play the same trick against India, it it gets to powerful.

So India needs a strong China that is a continues threat to the US. The equation must be US+India = stonger then China. This will weaken China and keep India important. If China is eliminated, India will be next in the line. So the next move must be to become an important country for the closets allies of US as well as important to holders of big capital across the west.

[m_saini]

Thanks for the unsolicited advice. There is propaganda and hot air on both sides and if we are contemptuous of those who want us to smoke the peace pipe while our territory is being salami sliced, we must also hold at a distance those who are pushing us on to sacrifice our men and provide a base.
Fact is that there is no live lost for India by the anglos. Witness how they are shutting the doors and raise not an eyebrow when the attacks are from the western border.
This false love is only because they want Indian soldiers to die on their behalf. They want to kill two birds with one stone.
Point is that we may very well have to sacrifice lives but not for the benefit of our colonialists.
Enough said on this.

+1001

[V_Raman]

Dont align with the colonialists - China is our neighbor!

I firmly believe they are leading us down a garden of eden path only to drop us at the altar.

They tried with kashmir - finally that is now done after 370 removal and their munna turning rabid.

Now with China - all unsolicited statements from Pomp-ous-eo about India - trying to egg us on.

China, IMO, is now more worried about the econmic relationship with India than anything else.

We should use the west enough to signal the red lines to China - I think we are doing that.

[Julian_Bashir]

Apologies if posted previously, some great graphics in here to visualise the border

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-10/ ... fmredir=sm

[Philip]

Keeping individuals aside,and looking at the picture objectively, the fact is that quite a few analysts plus retd. sr. military individuals want a more robust military response to China at the local level.Why is it that with Pak we use our arty,spl.forces,aircraft, etc. when required,but with China only "wrestling matches" are allowed while their creeping tactics goes on unabated? This anomaly plus the MEA's craven servility towards China has led it to expand its territorial demands into our lands. I say again,the MEA has cowered under its desks like frightened surrender monkeys while China dished out stapled visas for years,redrew maps that pushed the boundaries back on our side ,called Ar.Pradesh S.Tibet, and now claims the whole Galwan valley. It has been only offensive diplomatic action from China and a weak back-heeling defence from India,until the IA stepped in and heroically taught the Chinks a lesson at Galwan.

Thus far the Chinese have treated India like a soft state,a paper tiger. They will be reassessing the situation now after our military response,but under XI ,expect no compromise at all,only deception,after deception. It costs the Chinese NOTHING to withdraw if they plan to attack and invade at a future time,only deceiving us in the interim that they are genuine in intent.
Therefore, our response has to be multi-dimensional. A robust military presence and pro-active military action if and where required on the frontline,plus a relentless economic and diplomatic campaign to hurt China to the maximum. On the economic front things are happening,but sadly little to see diplomatically.Why could we not expel Chink diplomats as we've just done with Pak? We have greater reason to do so with China. Unless the MEA develops a spine of steel,I'm afraid that whatever we gain on the ground thanks to the military will be lost across the table by diplomutts. In retrospect we trusted and were betrayed by Bhutto at Simla,handing over 95,000 prisoners for a rubber cheque. Pak nurtured the Khalistani movement who pulled the triggers that assassinated Mrs.G., extracting their revenge for'71 .Zia's departure from the scene- whoever did the deed,did us a great favour. However LBS' demise ,at the hands of Pak,as some allege has yet to be paid for.

Right now with our military modernisation a project in the works, critical weapon systems,munitions,etc. yet to arrive,border infra also incomplete,any pro-active moves against China have to be prudent and be limited in nature. We have no guarantee as to the contours of an expanded conflict and its extent ,if we take pro- active measures to use as bargaining chips. In these interim circumstances we must as said before keep the heat on China both economically and diplomatically as well. The two " T" cards must come into play plus giving the Chinese the same diplomatic treatment that was dished out to the Pakis. If we are weak in the other two legs of the " triad", it will disastrously impinge upon the entire military equation with China.

[Y I Patel]

Here's another map which predates the 1962 war. One can see where the original border was. Also, note the origin of the map. Draw your own conclusions.

http://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/ams/i ... -44-09.jpg

Thank you! Close to intersection of lines LM2 and 9 is Sajum Camping Ground. Mt Sajum is one of the highly contested areas. If you look at 3D google maps a few km ne of Dumchele, you are approximately at this location. The view westwards is commanding. No wonder India fights tooth and nail to deny the Chinese permanent control over that area!

Another very intriguing location to look at in these maps (not this particular plate) is Samar Lungpa, which is a few km to the east of Karakoram Pass. Another traditional hotspot and take a look in google to see why!

[LakshmanPST]

Lets shoot the message, instead of the messenger, may we?
I found some portions of the interview critical of the present euphoria and Doval's 'great triumph' in resolving the border issue. I agree with the Swamy's critique.
Lets concentrate on countering his arguments on the matter, instead of trashing him.
That 15 Jul 1962 paper headline of Chinese withdrawing from Galwan is genuine.

I have seen Suswamy's full interview... These are the points to note--->
1) He want Govt. to be either 100% transparent or 100% Opaque...
(In other words, saying "We are in the dark"... )
2) He want Modi Govt. and Doval not to talk with China at all... After few minutes, he offered himself that he can talk to the Chinese...
3) His basic premise is wrong... He is saying, "Govt. announced victory and said that Chinese went back... But same thing happened in 1962 and Chinese came back in October when we were caught unawares..."...
Fact is Govt. has not declared victory... Neither did they say Chinese withdrew completely... Govt. only said that Chinese moved a few km back... Govt. has already said that full disengagement is going to take months... And Govt. and Army are definitely not sleeping... Everyone knows that Chinese can not be trusted... He is just rambling...
4) He want Modi Govt. to send Chinese back to the 1996 LAC line... Govt.'s stand as on today is return of Status Quo pre-May 2020... He want Govt. to push Chinese to 1996 LAC Line and no talks, basically want Govt. to start a war with China...
(If you ask me, we have only two options---> return of status quo through talks (or local skirmish) or return of Aksai Chin through full war... If we are going for a full war, why stop at 1996 LAC...???)
5) He is saying that Mc Mahon Line is not valid since British themselves disowned him... (This is pure Chinese narrative...) Apparently he is going to write a book on it...
6) He wants India not to raise Tibet and Taiwan issues... (There can't be more direct msg from China to this Govt.)
7) At one point during the interview, the interviewer made the statement, "You and Rahul Gandhi are basically taking the same stand with respect to China..."... That is so obvious...

[Aditya_V]

I think now that our infrastructure is being built up and the Rotang tunnel at the verge of being opened, the Chinese want the Delineation of the LAC so they can pull back, so far we found it difficult to sustain ops so could not escalate, that is the agenda off Ajai Sukla types as well.

We must play this patiently- for nearly 70 years large parts of our territory have been away from us, we must keep the pressure till we get it back, the Chinese had the advantage of roads till wherever they want. Now we are catching up. If we can supply Ladakh through Rotang in winter- then the chinese goose is cooked, G219 is a very steep climb from Hotan or to supply from Eastern Tibet in Winter- thier 70 year advantage is going to go- the more we delay more they will get desperate. As our infrastructure and posts become better slowly things will become favorable for us.

Dont delineate the LAC, start taking some land with better infrastructure in key sectors and then negotiate.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... c-6498605/

[LakshmanPST]

There is a group of 'experts' who badly want India to declare war on China NOW... If India does not declare war, they want to declare that Govt. is weak and has failed, even if Status Quo has returned...
Chellaney is one of them... SuSwamy is another...
They are waiting to portray Modi Govt. (which has done a much better job compared to any previous Govt. in handling China so far) as nothing different than previous Govts....
Why they want it, I don't know... Maybe it is their individual interests... Or an indirect blackmail by some powers sponsoring them to declare war... Or a Psy-Op from China to deny Modi Govt. a victory narrative, if they withdrew...
-
Congress ofcourse want to get rid of the '1962 debacle' mark on Nehru by creating a narrative that Modi surrendered to China... This group is ofcourse mainly led by Ajay Shukla...

[Cain Marko]

Cain- ji, my contention is based on holding the ground. This is not Uri surgical strike. But practically holding ground. I assumed things very favorably. Assuming that we eliminate half of Pak forces we would still have 12500 odd personnel to subdue who will have a chance to regroup and play spoil sport. In mountains you need 12 times the force. Normal circumstances you need 3 times. I just assumed 2.4 X @ 30K Indian troops. Can't be more optimistic. Once big thing you forget about Tangail air drop were the objectives and the fact that the Pakistanis were operating in hostile situation. May not be so easily compared.

I agree with the premise that you need to outnumber the opponent by large numbers in the mountains so as to capture territory. Holding however is not the same as taking over.

My point is that this works both ways. After initial barrage, airdrops like tangail will ensure that 2-3 key nodes, say GB and Skardu airport will be in Indian control in a few hours. the pakistanis need to first get their bearings together, then regroup. Where? All usual locations will be fodder for IAF and missile strikes. At this point they'll have to scatter in order to avoid providing juicy targets. Using the mountains for cover, which means that they are already operating as a rag tag force. Their biggest problem now is not even regrouping, it is actually managing supplies. Remember there is only one real highway into this area from tsp. And that can be monitored.

IOWs, the burden of taking over now becomes theirs, and as you say that is not easy.

[Kati]

Lets shoot the message, instead of the messenger, may we?
I found some portions of the interview critical of the present euphoria and Doval's 'great triumph' in resolving the border issue. I agree with the Swamy's critique.
Lets concentrate on countering his arguments on the matter, instead of trashing him.
That 15 Jul 1962 paper headline of Chinese withdrawing from Galwan is genuine.

I have seen Suswamy's full interview... These are the points to note--->
1) He want Govt. to be either 100% transparent or 100% Opaque...
(In other words, saying "We are in the dark"... )
2) He want Modi Govt. and Doval not to talk with China at all... After few minutes, he offered himself that he can talk to the Chinese...
3) His basic premise is wrong... He is saying, "Govt. announced victory and said that Chinese went back... But same thing happened in 1962 and Chinese came back in October when we were caught unawares..."...
Fact is Govt. has not declared victory... Neither did they say Chinese withdrew completely... Govt. only said that Chinese moved a few km back... Govt. has already said that full disengagement is going to take months... And Govt. and Army are definitely not sleeping... Everyone knows that Chinese can not be trusted... He is just rambling...
4) He want Modi Govt. to send Chinese back to the 1996 LAC line... Govt.'s stand as on today is return of Status Quo pre-May 2020... He want Govt. to push Chinese to 1996 LAC Line and no talks, basically want Govt. to start a war with China...
(If you ask me, we have only two options---> return of status quo through talks (or local skirmish) or return of Aksai Chin through full war... If we are going for a full war, why stop at 1996 LAC...???)
5) He is saying that Mc Mahon Line is not valid since British themselves disowned him... (This is pure Chinese narrative...) Apparently he is going to write a book on it...
6) He wants India not to raise Tibet and Taiwan issues... (There can't be more direct msg from China to this Govt.)
7) At one point during the interview, the interviewer made the statement, "You and Rahul Gandhi are basically taking the same stand with respect to China..."... That is so obvious...

It makes me wonder if SuSwamy is a Khan agent.....

[SSridhar]

5) He is saying that Mc Mahon Line is not valid since British themselves disowned him... (This is pure Chinese narrative...) Apparently he is going to write a book on it...

Was he referring to McCartney-McDonald Line or McMahon Line?

If he was talking about Ladakh, it has to be the former. The British used several boundary lines in Ladakh depending upon how distant was the Tsarist Russia in Xinjiang region and how friendly was the Qing Emperor.

[RCase]

We keep harping on the fact that we can never trust China. They may withdraw now, but will be planning on doing something underhanded at a later stage, they keep moving the LAC by salami slicing, our MEA is weak kneed, yada yada...

From various sources, the border area terrain is a challenge to China to bring in logistics. Very few roads and rail infrastructure connects with the heartland in the east, Air dominance might be a problem with the number of jets and airfields in Tibet/Xinjiang. Currently, China is experiencing heavy flooding, apart from Wuhan virus, Swine flu, Ebola etc.

Pardon the noob questions:
1. Why doesn't India seize the moment and as a retaliation seize their lands? Seems like G219 is the only major road in the vicinity and it would take a really long while to replenish from the hinterland. Why not have them on the back foot? Why are our claims restricted to status quo as of April? Why not make outlandish claims and immediately refer to those as disputed lands. (Why not have the LAC at Chengdu ?)
2. Why keep talking about GDP/ economy mismatch, when similar situation exists with TSP. That has never stopped TSP from being a pain.
3. Why can't we make noises that GB, POK belong to India and if there is transgression in those areas by another country, we will use force to reintegrate those territories. (Just like China makes noises about Taiwan and HongKong). Same stance on Balochistan.
4. Stop caring about what the rest of world will say. Why bother to seek endorsement of EU and USA?

[Hari Nair]

Hari Nair,
What do you find credible in SuSwamy challenge?

I refer to the interview on 08 July on NewsX. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHAFvBoNuyQ. I presume this is the same interview that is being referred to, by the other member.

A disclaimer - I am not a supporter of Su Swamy and my post is not intended to support him. However, I do believe in analysing the message, purely to see whether there is any substance.

The title of NewsX video on YouTube (where I originally viewed it) says : 'Chinese Retreat: Withdrawal or Camouflage?' It appears to have been changed and sensationalised in the twitter feed title as 'Su Swamy challenges the Govt..., etc'. But then that's what the media does.

As far as the content goes, the points where I can agree with him and minuses (where I do not) are:

Agree points:
- The newspaper headline of 15 Jul 1962 is indeed eerily similar with the media's portrayal and media's euphoria of the situation today.

- 2:48 He talks of the shaky foundations of the Shimla agreement of 1914 and the McMahon Line. He is right when he points out that the then ROC Govt did NOT agree to it. These are all historical facts. He notes the Chinese objections that some of the Tibetan monasteries are located south of the Line. Factually, he is correct - I am aware of some monasteries south of the McMahon Line and some even in our Northern sector that have historical records of tax payment to Lhasa.

-4:50 He then clinches the argument in favour of the McMahon Line, when he states that, notwithstanding the historical issues of the McMahon Line, the very fact China had agreed with Myanmar to use the McMahon Line to define and demarcate their border, the same McMahon Line should also be used to settle the issue with India. This is the correct approach to counter their claims.

-5:10 He talks about the euphoria on our TV channels and cautions against it. I couldn't agree more.

- 6:30 Predicts a possible campaign in September. Again, I couldn't agree more. Our COVID troubles are expected to soar by then and its also the last month for a military campaign, before 'General Winter' takes over.

-7:56 Recognition of Tibet and Taiwan. He cautions that our govt and leaders have already signed agreements on recognizing Tibet as part of China (Nehru & Vajpayee). There will be consequences to repudiating those, he cautions. This is his opinion, which is perhaps reasonable.

9:00 Taiwan, in 1962 did not support India. He is right on that count. Their official position thereafter has been to remain neutral. Remember, that in a sense they are the successors of the old ROC Govt in Mainland China.

12:50 & 23:05 Strong message to China - they need to be made to back down. We have to take them on, since this is the second time. If successful, we will be on equal terms on the world stage. We should not spin-doctor our domestic audience as a way out of it. I agree on this.

13:54 Doval- Wang dialogue wrongly painted as a breakthrough in the media- I fully agree on this.
Mr Doval, our NSA has been doing a great job. However, this media spin of painting him as a superman of sorts needs to be toned down drastically. From the present spin on media, it would appear we do not need the Army or the IAF - just Mr Doval to get that elusive breakthrough with the Chinese. SuSwamy's caution on the PLA, the internal dynamics of CCP and Mr Wang's effectiveness in their overall hierarchy, is justified. Please remember, the two armies have only dis-engaged / are in the process, the Chinese have not withdrawn.

16:25 Rightly points out that any spin doctoring by us for our domestic audience will be used to our detractors to try to pull down the Modi Sarkar - given the availability of OSINT and the number of detractors.

Minus (NOT Agree points)

-15:44 & 10:11 Challenges the Govt to show evidence as where they have pulled back and Govt should either exercise full or nil transparency.
This is typical SuSwamy speak - the sort of unnecessary one-liner that gets him his reputation and trouble and has been picked up as the alternate headline in the twitter feed. It also appears to overshadow every other point he raised.

I don't agree because:

- Having flown in the terrain in NE and North, when we talk of historical claim lines and LACs pre-1985 and try and transpose those onto present day satellite imagery to magnify those for resolution within 100-200 m, its a crazy and impossible exercise. The reason? Large portions of the formidable terrain were not properly surveyed and the accuracy deceased towards the interior, inaccessible terrain. Therefore, the LAC drawn on those maps had a limit of accuracy. Our historical reference itself is not easy to define to such fine accuracy. Chaps may be surprised to know that as recently back as mid-80s (before satellite mapped tech took over), we had maps for flying indicating dotted hachures for very large stretches, instead of contour lines for some of the remote terrain in the interior! Hachures are approximations of the slope and terrain whereas contour lines are precise and are derived from surveys. Those areas with hachures were vague approximations of the terrain and a modern equivalent of 'Here be Dragons'!

- The Govt has been briefed by the Army that the present process is for disengagement from a face-off. This is a process that is ongoing and is attempting to move to the target of withdrawal. Full transparency and discussion of the minutiae on raucous TV shows with pros and cons will definitely derail the process. At the same time, nil transparency also cannot be sustained - else alternate narratives will be spun by vested sources.

18:44 Chinese to move back to 1996 Line - SuSwamy makes this reference several times and asks for the Chinese to move back to the 1996 Line. Possibly referring to the agreement in 1996.

I am not sure on this point - did the two sides exchange maps with their claim lines or their respective interpretations of the LAC? If not, then this point is just vapourware.

[yensoy]

Thank you for your informative post and opinions Nair sir.

[Nihat]

Thank you Nair sir for the clarity of the post and thought. It's certainly helps in gaining understanding of a rather complex situation.

On the possibility of action in September, it would seem to be a much more difficult task to accomplish for the PLA this time around. Notwithstanding the road they have constructed to finger 4 during 99, even the Indian army mobilization time would be much faster. Not to mention easier for us to maintain supply lines through the harsh winter, if necessary.

I'm sure they would do something, but not certain it will be in the same sector.

[SSridhar]

18:44 Chinese to move back to 1996 Line - SuSwamy makes this reference several times and asks for the Chinese to move back to the 1996 Line. Possibly referring to the agreement in 1996.

I am not sure on this point - did the two sides exchange maps with their claim lines or their respective interpretations of the LAC? If not, then this point is just vapourware.

As far as available information goes, in the 1996 CBM accord where there was an agreement to exchange maps indicating the “respective perceptions” of the two sides regarding “the entire alignment of the LAC as soon as possible”. The Middle Sector process of clarification was broadly completed, but problems arose in clarifying the Western Sector. The Eastern Sector was never attempted.

[LakshmanPST]

5) He is saying that Mc Mahon Line is not valid since British themselves disowned him... (This is pure Chinese narrative...) Apparently he is going to write a book on it...

Was he referring to McCartney-McDonald Line or McMahon Line?

If he was talking about Ladakh, it has to be the former. The British used several boundary lines in Ladakh depending upon how distant was the Tsarist Russia in Xinjiang region and how friendly was the Qing Emperor.

No he was referring to Mc Mahon Line only... He was talking about Tibet and Arunachal Pradesh and Burma...

[pankajs]

Rohit Vats on twitter ...
https://twitter.com/KesariDhwaj/status/ ... 5977243648

• [PLA Ground Forces - Preliminary Assessment]
  • While observation by @SushantSin is correct, I never find anyone do realistic analysis of where these Chinese troops are going to come from? And how long will it actually take them?
  • We just assume Chinese will make things happen.
• Further ...
  • Map: Divisions, Brigades & Group Armies (GA) under Western Theater Command and GA of other Theater Commands.
  • 2 x Divisions from Xinjiang Military District are positioned against India in Ladakh.
  • We've 3 or 4 Divisions against them (not shown on map)
    
• Further ...
  • If PLA has to move more troops against Ladakh, it will need to pull all divisions from Xinjiang Military District (XMD).
  • Still, it will lack 3:1 ratio required for attack!
  • Can China send more troops from Tibet Military District (TMD) or 76 & 77 Group Armies?
• Further ...
  • If it does, then it will be left with very less troops opposite Arunachal Pradesh (AP).
  • From Sikkim to eastern most AP, Indian Army has 3 x Corps who between them have 9 x Mountain Divisions.
  • Chinese GA is broadly equivalent to an Indian Army Corps.
    
• Further ...
  • To ensure superior ratios and not disbalance eastern sector (where it as it is has inadequate strength), it will have to pull troops from other Theater Commands.
  • From 11 Group Armies under other Theater Commands, China will need to commit 5-6 more Group Armies against India from Eastern Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh.
    
• Further ...
  • Basically, China will have to commit at least 65%-70% of their complete army against India to build favorable ratio and have any chance of success.
  • But can it do this in 3-4 days?
  • Look at the diance from Eastern Ladakh

The thread goes on to discuss the last question. People interested can check the original thread.

[Malayappan]

Chest-thumping over disengagement is premature: As volatility becomes new normal in India-China ties, get ready for a hotter LAC
Worth checking out this assessment! Author brings together many data points as well. Some excerpts -

As China witnessed an exponential rise in power, its power projection also saw a commensurate rise — an eventuality that India found hard to deal with under the current strategic framework.

China’s assessment of India has also undergone a change post-Doka La when India intervened on behalf of Bhutan to stop PLA from building a road on Bhutanese territory that threatened India’s strategic vulnerability. India’s denial-access mechanism to stop China has raised India’s stock in Beijing’s policy circles.

China has come to settle on a grudging admiration of Modi, whose domestic popularity, personal touch in diplomacy coupled with India’s sustained economic growth have created more space for an assertive India in international relations and a rise in national prestige at home.

China Institute of International Studies in its essay The “Modi Doctrine” and the Future of China-India Relations, observes: “Under the influence of Modi’s governing style, the risk-taking and practicability of India’s diplomacy are also on the rise… Modi has adjusted the diplomatic philosophy of non-alignment. While insisting on advancing all-round diplomacy, Modi has adopted a “coalition not alliance” strategy on many major regional and international issues so as to increase India’s bargaining chips in the great power games.”

And in conclusion,

While this internal Chinese debate remains inconclusive, one thing is for sure. Irreconcilable objectives of both nations, rise of national power, the convergence of India’s strategic interests with the US that raises China’s paranoia, Beijing’s use of proxies in India’s regional periphery to create trouble for New Delhi and rise of nationalist sentiment within both nations make for a volatile mix and an unsure trajectory of bilateral relations.

[SSridhar]

Rohit Vats on twitter ...

• Basically, China will have to commit at least 65%-70% of their complete army against India to build favorable ratio and have any chance of success.
• But can it do this in 3-4 days?
• Look at the diance from Eastern Ladakh

The basic Chinese (mis)calculation is that their stand-off weapons would take care of the much superior (both in quality & quantity) IA.

[chetak]

Paramjit S Garewal@ParamjitGarewal·7h

IAF gets night-flying capability at Leh for MiG-29s, force sees it as a ‘game-changer’