Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 07 Dec 2013 09:34

we need guys good in economics etc to blog, write extensively on how 4 yrs of NDA> current disaster.
ditto for other areas.
basically attack on every angle from governance and cultural perspective.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 07 Dec 2013 09:58

devesh wrote:any scenario in which AAP teams up with INC is good. I want BJP to be single biggest party but still fail to get the majority.

this will push AAP and INC together. people need to see ultimately voting for AAP is same as voting for INC. this can only happen if BJP doesn't get absolute majority.

on the contrary. this will embolden AAP to go nationwide. and INC is shameless enough to work with AAP. likewise, AAP supporters will convince themselves they can keep INC honest.

it will be a net loss for india.

best scenario is if INC/AAP both lose comprehensively in delhi. and resurgent BJP comes back across india.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Dec 2013 10:02

Bookies bet big on BJP in Delhi

Mirroring the findings of exit polls, bookies in the Capital have put their money on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as the single largest party, with a hung Assembly as a high-risk bet.

The BJP continues to lead in this ‘informal’ exit poll, with big bets being placed on the party to win the elections. BJP chief ministerial candidate Harsh Vardhan is seen as a solid bet.

According to figures shared by a bookie, the BJP is expected to get 38 seats, the Congress 21 seats and the new entrant, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), less than 5.

It is better that AAP get as less as possible even if this will push INC's numbers up.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Dec 2013 10:05

Congress banks on AAP to split anti-govt vote

However, post-elections several Congress candidates, it seems, are banking on the new party to eat into the anti-incumbency vote, which otherwise they think would have gone to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The party has been anxious over the high turnout, especially the number of young voters.

However, sources in the party said that several candidates, in their feedback to the party leadership, have said it might work in their favour. Congress leaders claimed that while the anti-incumbency vote has been divided between the AAP and the BJP, the party has been able to hold on to their traditional vote-bank.
Ground report

“The party has sought a ground report from all the candidates over the past two days. Several of them have highlighted the fact that the AAP has divided the anti-incumbency vote in a major way that can work in their favour. Had AAP not been in the field, it would have helped the BJP. With a very close contest in some seats, it might prove to be decisive in the end,” said a member of the Delhi Pradesh Congress Committee (DPCC).

LakshO · Post by **LakshO** » 07 Dec 2013 10:27

I expect BJP to sweep 4-0 in the state elections. I anticipate the BJP to get a slender majority of 35-37 seats in Delhi. Also, whichever way Delhi goes (BJP largest party or slender majority), I expect a substantial % of votes to shift to NM & BJP in May 2014. Cong(I) must pay the price for India's wasted decade of 2004-2014.

Note: Can we please not call Cong(I) as INC as that will be a great insult to the independence movement & freedom fighters?

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 07 Dec 2013 10:39

What time does counting start on 8th? 10am?

LakshO · Post by **LakshO** » 07 Dec 2013 11:02

Santosh wrote:What time does counting start on 8th? 10am?

I thought it was 8 AM. Arnab Goswami on Times Now was promising coverage from 6 AM

to 12 midnight. It must another Deepavali of TRP ratings for all the media morons/channels. Imagine the fracas of these pseudo secular media idiots when they realize that NM & BJP sweep 4-0

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 07 Dec 2013 11:22

LakshO wrote:
Santosh wrote:What time does counting start on 8th? 10am?
I thought it was 8 AM. Arnab Goswami on Times Now was promising coverage from 6 AM to 12 midnight. It must another Deepavali of TRP ratings for all the media morons/channels. Imagine the fracas of these pseudo secular media idiots when they realize that NM & BJP sweep 4-0

They already know. Some are in denial. Others in their final death throes. And a third lot busy back pedalling and switching sides. For example: Look up Dileep padgaonkar's most recent contribution on ToI..

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 07 Dec 2013 11:26

There is almost no chance that PAAP - pseudo AAP - will be the largest party. If they side with Congress then they are finished because they will be slapping in the face of those voters who gave anti-congress votes to them. If they side with BJP then their maulana vote banks will slap them. So I would say that PAAP will is caught between the devil and the deep sea and it is advantage BJP all the way. I do believe that BJP, powered by NAMO, will cruise to the half way mark.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 07 Dec 2013 11:27

Narayana Rao wrote:Not so fast. Worried. But hopefully Raman Singh will make it.

C'Garh & Delhi are prime targets for any EVM rigging. With some exit polls predicting a close contest, even a hung assembly due to subtle EVM tampering will appear "natural" and will dent the Modi wave. Media can go to town about how BJP will not get a clear majority even in LS 2014, which will be the cue for more EVM rigging to influence borderline constituencies.

This is one of the reasons I hope BJP makes it a clean sweep in this round. It will make future EVM rigging attempts appear blatant, thus preventing them

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 07 Dec 2013 11:30

Congress ground reports are like CHINESE GDP figures from the provinces. All cooked up to make their master in the capital happy. Ground reports far from ground reality! Waiting to see the second NAMO effect incident tomorrow. First one was the win by AVBP in DU elections after 15 years.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 07 Dec 2013 11:35

RoyG wrote:The problem is the EJ rot is extensive in Andhra. Conversion is rampant and the majority of these christian foot soldiers wont be returning to dharmic fold. There is just too much money involved. I don't see how Modi+TDP can save the day this late in the game.

Any idea how could AP (with deep religious roots in Hinduism) become Christianized in such a short span of 10 years? Can 1 CM with 2 terms do so much damage?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Dec 2013 11:48

WRT, the hope that the 1AAP will join the inc in forming government in delhi. I disagree with it. They may join hands. But it wont happen before 2014 general election. As doing so besfore that will damage mthe AAP as a weapon against Modi.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 07 Dec 2013 12:01

johneeG wrote: I think the kongi kendra sarkaar will fall within a week after the election results. My prediction: SP/BSP & MPs from AP will pull the rug... and other kongis and kongi Bs will follow suit and dump the eyetalians.

That will be bad news. The longer this govt rules the more people will become restless. Also bjp can blame SP/BSP for allowing to loot the country in 10 years if they continue supporting them till the end. Frankly I don't understand why the central govt is still standing. It seems there are only two men who are smart enough to understand the anti congi wave in the country. NM and farji (I Hate to take his name with NM in a single statement).

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 07 Dec 2013 12:02

Suraj wrote:Years ago someone - kgoan I believe - stated exactly the same thing here. Managing the EJ issue is a matter of gaining political control and cutting off the money. It's all about the money. Focus on who's sending it to whom, and cut them off, through laws. If anyone shouts about it from outside, let them. Emotion and hysteria does nothing productive here. Belief in this case, as is the money aiding it, is fungible.

Then it is a chicken and egg issue, with people here saying that it is impossible to gain power (in AP) because of the EJs being too widespread.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 07 Dec 2013 12:46

exit polls 2013 and 2008

A lot is being said based on the exit polls. According to this blog post on outlookindia.com, the predictive power of exit polls seems to be rather low.

LakshO · Post by **LakshO** » 07 Dec 2013 13:34

Fine article in Firstpost by Dhiraj Nayyar
http://www.firstpost.com/politics/not-j ... 72449.html

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 07 Dec 2013 15:00

Strange how in the biggest democracy India there is still chance of rigging by way of EVM.

German Supreme Court has negated use of EVM just because it lacks transparency.
http://www.loc.gov/lawweb/servlet/lloc_ ... 01164_text

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 07 Dec 2013 15:36

Victor wrote:Kejriwal's shameless meeting with the rabid mullah Maulana Tauqeer Raza Khan in Bareilly seems to have paid off for him. Nothing seems to touch him, not even the video sting.

Once paid-media-owners make a person hero, all his evils become non issues , till paid-media-owners decide to pull plugs OR when nation loses a war and or that hero makes a major economic mess. eg paid-media made Duratma gandhi a hero, and he remained a hero. People came to know reality about Duratma Gandhi only after we lost civil war and over 10 lakh died.

kapilrdave wrote: Kejriwal is a hero for a so many. Especially young crowd. Once a personality becomes a hero people ignore his all bads and just see good in him. Those people have not necessarily fallen to his leftist ideology and promises of removing corruption like magic. The real reason is that people respect his guts to stand against the establishment. The current government has pissed people to such an extent that anyone taking a stand against them would automatically become a hero. This is where D4 failed. Just like any woman would want her husband to be strong and assertive, any society would want their leader to be clean, brave and strong. Look at MMS. Does he even remotely look like a leader? His acts or rather lack of it make him even more ridiculous. Same problem was with ABV that he just didn't look fit for PM's position to young crowd because of his age and illness. Same is the reason for Modi's rise. People like us analyse and debate every single word they utter on daily basis. Most people don't do that. For them kejri and modi are the brave challengers who want to do something good for the country. They don't bother what exactly they want to do and what is their ideology. In the past 66 years we have seen very few real national heroes. There have been very few who would guide and motivate the young generations. That is the reason we see temples of film stars and cricketers being worshiped as gods. High time we see a true national hero. NM could potentially be that but for that he has to do a lot other than winning this election.

AK is a good actor. But rest is all paid-media. Many activists exposed many tall leaders and gained NOTHING. Why? Unlike AK, they didnt have sponsors to pay paid-media. Since jan-2010 , there has been one fast against corruption on Janter Manter and none gained even 0.01% of publicity compared to what apr-2011 Anna's fast = fart got. Why? Again, Unlike AK, they didnt have sponsors to pay paid-media. And why does AK have so many fans? Well , why do SRK , Salman Khan, Amir Khan and Roshan have so many fans? Its numbers game. If paid-media shows one face again and again and again, then 1% population becomes fans, unless person is like RaGa. And then these 1% fans try to convert more and get more fans. The game goes on till paid-media pulls plug or nation loses a war due to that hero or that hero makes major economic mess. There is NOTHING intrinsically good about AK.

===

Rahul Mehta : Congress-owners have made sure that AAP gets lots of slum\muslim votes. So now paid-media will say "AAP is real party, not a BJP vote katua" . And AAP will projected nation-wide in next 4-6 months as true alternative.

A lot of youth who have no faith in Congress and , rightly or wrongly no faith in BJP, will join AAP as unpaid volunteers. And one unpaid volunteer = 50 paid volunteer. So strength of AAP will become immense. So a bigger show will happen on media as well as off-media And so nationwide AAP will get over 3 crore middle class votes, about 5% of total polled votes in LS-2014. But in LS-2014, AAP wont get any slum\muslim votes. These votes will all go with Congress. So BJP may lose big time

Another scenario is : The MNC-owners and Missionaries who pay for AAP's media coverage will offer a deal to NaMo "give so many LS tickets to our agents and we will reduce AAP coverage, or else we will increase AAP coverage". IMO, NaMo will have to agree, because if BJP doesnt won this election, the morale in BJP will be finished for years to come.

vivek.rao : If Indians especially Middle class people are dumb and stupid and can be so easily manipulated by MNCs and media, you need to more worry about Indians and their stupidity. May be Indians are not as stupid as you think they are. If they are, then why are you worried about BJP? Worry about India and Indians. BJP is doing what it can and what it has to.

Middle-class is NOT dumb or stupid. Not is anyone in world dumb or stupid, be lower class or middle class. People make wrong choices mainly because of lack of information. But why are Indian voters so ill-informed?

Well, biggest reason is --- Congress\CPM\AAP\BJP leaders dont spend a dime in distributing pamphlets, books etc to its volunteers and voters.

Ever since MNC-owners started taking over mediamen in 1991, they decided to do what any foreign predator country would do --- make population as politically as ill-informed as possible. Which is why ToI since 1991 has been increasing entertainment contents and important political news get lesser and lesser. At this point, a good nationalists will start spending his money in distributing pamphlets, books, newspaper-advt etc which can give as much as possible of TRUE information to volunteers and voters. You and I surely wont expect Congress, AAP , CPM to do that. But it is now you realize and accept that BJP leaders are NOT not willing to spend a dime on printing pamphlets, newspaper advt, books etc to inform volunteers and voters about any good thing that can save India, be Two Round Voting System or whatever.

Any good Nationalists will spend some of his money in passing useful information via pamphlets, newspaper-advt, books on "medicines" that save India . BJP leaders get a lot of money from legitimate and nefarious sources. So far so so good. But since 1950s, they have decided not to waste money in passing such information. And so most volunteers and voters across upper, middle and lower class remain uniformed. And so MNC-paid-media manages to easily plant people like AK, Anna etc as heroes.

Now I am already doing my part by spending my money in distributing information via pamphlets, newspaper-advt, books etc to volunteers, voters etc. If more people do the same, without hoping and waiting for big parties to do it, then things may improve.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 07 Dec 2013 16:47

Rahul Mehta wrote:Now I am already doing my part by spending my money in distributing information via pamphlets, newspaper-advt, books etc to volunteers, voters etc. If more people do the same, without hoping and waiting for big parties to do it, then things may improve.

Most of these channels are outdated and useless.

Social Media is good for people with internet connections. Cartoons, Street Theater, Songs, Posters, Bills are good if they are slick, funny, with aesthetics and clarity.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 07 Dec 2013 16:53

I think jootube videos (and CD's or pendrives with these videos) too will become a good medium in future.

Time for BJP to get some of the bright and upcoming film professionals under its wings. Some of the amateur short films on moral and ethical choices one daily faces in aaj ka Bharat are mind blowing. These kind of themes will never be touched by the Islamist EJ mafia controlled Bollywood or for that matter any other wood. Many of these talented professionally trained guys never get a break in these filmi bastions any way.

RM ji may also think of above suggestion in the decentralized model of resistance which he advocates.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 07 Dec 2013 17:30

subhamoy.das wrote:BJP stands for empowerment and Congress for appeasement. .

More appropriate, BJP stands for Shining Inclusive India while INC, Communists, SP, BSP et all stand for Beehive model ( which India has been largely under these rulers and has been accepted by Yuvraj).

1) Shining India, do the right things to make Indians work hard and inclusively those who work hard progress fast.

2) Beehive Model, 2 Classes - Queen bee - 0.5%- Politcos and families, some bureaucrats, Media, NGO, Film stars, a few business men are superrich who spend much of their life in US, Europe, ME living of corruption and donations with no real work.

Worker Bee - 99.5% slog it out for 25KG grain a month and have nothing else

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Dec 2013 18:37

Times Now > Congress war room > Congress Line of defense on Sunday and after

In MP and CG > Taunt BJP on Modi wave if the numbers slip below the current seats
In Del and Raj > On BJP win, credit the Harshvardhan and Raje and deny Modi wave

They are desperate to play down Modi's impact. Why does it matter so much? Most folks who have access to TV or Newspaper have already heard enough of RaGa and NaMo to make their own assessment.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 07 Dec 2013 18:45

pankajs wrote:Times Now > Congress war room > Congress Line of defense on Sunday and after

In MP and CG > Taunt BJP on Modi wave if the numbers slip below the current seats
In Del and Raj > On BJP win, credit the Harshvardhan and Raje and deny Modi wave

They are desperate to play down Modi's impact. Why does it matter so much? Most folks who have access to TV or Newspaper have already heard enough of RaGa and NaMo to make their own assessment.

Bhai saab all these angrezi channels put together dont even have 10% viewership share. Why so much focus on them. Watch aaj tak

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 07 Dec 2013 18:57

vishvak wrote:Strange how in the biggest democracy India there is still chance of rigging by way of EVM.

German Supreme Court has negated use of EVM just because it lacks transparency.
http://www.loc.gov/lawweb/servlet/lloc_ ... 01164_text

Didn't SC mandate a paper count in close contests? Or was that just show in response to SSwami.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 07 Dec 2013 19:09

nachiket wrote:
Suraj wrote:Years ago someone - kgoan I believe - stated exactly the same thing here. Managing the EJ issue is a matter of gaining political control and cutting off the money. It's all about the money. Focus on who's sending it to whom, and cut them off, through laws. If anyone shouts about it from outside, let them. Emotion and hysteria does nothing productive here. Belief in this case, as is the money aiding it, is fungible.
Then it is a chicken and egg issue, with people here saying that it is impossible to gain power (in AP) because of the EJs being too widespread.

AP govt has nothing to do with it. it's the central govt's job and believe me eye bee has info about all major beneficiaries to minute detail. like the army, all they need is the political go ahead from top.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 07 Dec 2013 19:49

Victor wrote:
vishvak wrote:Strange how in the biggest democracy India there is still chance of rigging by way of EVM.

German Supreme Court has negated use of EVM just because it lacks transparency.
http://www.loc.gov/lawweb/servlet/lloc_ ... 01164_text
Didn't SC mandate a paper count in close contests? Or was that just show in response to SSwami.

Voter can get 'receipt' as far I recollect.

But it's not equivalent because
1) paper receipt count not mandatory for all vote counts.
2) EVM doesn't seem to quicken declaration of results, as it can be postponed with kind of secrecy in between. Secrecy of declaring vote count isn't mandated by rules as such - doesn't help at all.
3) Not as straightforward as paper ballot for voters to understand - which matters the most.
4) Risk of hack/glitches and other tech issue such as even logic hard coded in chips is not available for inspection ie lot of lack of transparency and risks.
5) Many other issues like machines are easier to loot than huge ballot boxes etc.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 07 Dec 2013 20:48

India should have both evm and paper. Without ironclad vote, 'democracy' means zilch. Cost/time is irrelevant.

M Joshi · Post by **M Joshi** » 07 Dec 2013 21:05

Kejriwal just announced that they'll contest LS elections as well. "Neutral journalists" are already declaring on TV that even if AAP win 0 seats, it will be strong contender for LS elections. So, they'll eat at least 50% of anti-congress votes in urban seats they'll contest against BJP. Which means UPA will not announce early elections even if there's a 5-0 sweep against it in assembly elections, giving MSM enough time to prop up AAP in urban constituencies. Therefore it becomes important for BJP to give tough fight to INC & other congi b'teams in rural seats to gain max there & fight for its voters in urban seats if they want to achieve 200+. Kejriwal has suddenly became an unannounced top contender for Third front PM post. If they get 10 seats in Delhi, then 20-30 won't a big deal for them considering the MSM boost they'll get. 20+ seats in Delhi means 30-50 in LS 2014.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 07 Dec 2013 21:08

Unless Kejriwaal can get support from Anna Hazare or Baba Ramdev, he can't make much difference on national level. He just used them to get a foot in. It's very difficult for AAP to get a similar presence as Delhi in rest of India.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 07 Dec 2013 21:22

couldn't?

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 07 Dec 2013 21:23

^ As someone boled on teetar,
Its a Freudian slip by EJ Jogi.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 07 Dec 2013 21:25

M Joshi wrote:Kejriwal just announced that they'll contest LS elections as well. "Neutral journalists" are already declaring on TV that even if AAP win 0 seats, it will be strong contender for LS elections. So, they'll eat at least 50% of anti-congress votes in urban seats they'll contest against BJP. Which means UPA will not announce early elections even if there's a 5-0 sweep against it in assembly elections, giving MSM enough time to prop up AAP in urban constituencies. Therefore it becomes important for BJP to give tough fight to INC & other congi b'teams in rural seats to gain max there & fight for its voters in urban seats if they want to achieve 200+. Kejriwal has suddenly became an unannounced top contender for Third front PM post. If they get 10 seats in Delhi, then 20-30 won't a big deal for them considering the MSM boost they'll get. 20+ seats in Delhi means 30-50 in LS 2014.

Reapeating Media game of Delhi in every state is not easy. No one watches NDTV or IBN at my home. They only watch local channels. So 200 channels have to co-ordinate. Does not work and gets diluted

30-50 in LS? Are you kidding me?

But one thing is sure. PAIDMEDIA, CONGis and Commies will fine tune their strategy based on exit polls

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 07 Dec 2013 22:06

Prem Kumar wrote:Any idea how could AP (with deep religious roots in Hinduism) become Christianized in such a short span of 10 years? Can 1 CM with 2 terms do so much damage?

If you look in the eyes of the most desperate (the majority), you will understand that what matters more than SD to them is their next meal, their daughter's marriage, a solid roof over their heads etc. It doesn't matter to them that they get these as handouts and they couldn't care less if they have to mumble "Jesus", "Our Father" or whatever to get these things. I have no doubt that they feel bad about it but not bad enough to give them up. No offense to Goan Christians but in Mumbai and Goa they are called "Macas" or "maca pao" for "give me bread". It is plain and simple bribery of the weakest and most vulnerable people and the govt and Hindus of India have failed them criminally. We make a big deal about our rich temples but what is this wealth doing for India and its people?

AP may have become Christianized in 10 years but so have large swathes of Assam. The hill tribes had been converted with permission (connivance?) of Nehru in the 50s & 60s but the plains tribes--Bodos, Miris, Lalungs, Mishings and more--suddenly see huge, ugly "schools" with the names like "Saint Josephs English Medium" or "Saint Marys" in the middle of the paddy fields offering "free education and medical aid" with the compliments of Nehru's grandson's Italian widow. I expect the Assam plains tribes to be fully Christianized in the next 10 years if things continue. It is so bad that small schools supported by Ekal Vidyalaya in remote areas are routinely torched by both Xtians and Muslims thugs in Assam.

I truly hope that NaMo has these issues firmly in mind when he comes to power. It will need ruthless and determined action based on our laws.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Dec 2013 22:18

North Bengal as well sire.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 07 Dec 2013 22:42

undy tv seems to have a pro-bjp tilt of late...

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 07 Dec 2013 22:58

I think it was on some debate, I think on TimesNow, that Cong spokesman Sanjay Jha said he suspects the exit polls and there maybe surprises in store. My question therefore is, this. Any Cong, in collusion with US/UK, hanky panky in terms of counting votes possible. Especially given this delay between close of polling and actual counting.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 07 Dec 2013 23:26

^IMO "surprises" are no longer doable even if total control of evms exists with the congis. Only borderline tinkering is possible but granted that even this can do major damage. The massive difference in the crowds and the emotions at NaMo and RaGa rallies is like night and day. There will be a revolution if a vote result goes completely against the prevailing mood, right or wrong.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 07 Dec 2013 23:33

few more hours onlee...

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 07 Dec 2013 23:38

CRamS wrote: Any Cong, in collusion with US/UK, hanky panky in terms of counting votes possible..

Let me guess...another saik type who have never voted in India? (The mahaan asked why India uses Nazi symbol for elections)

You don't need NSA CIA mi6 etc for this. Is it not enough that we get the massa great in every damn thung ..we have to get their help in vote rigging too