Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

[chola]

When I first went to a khanland IKEA (late 90s), it used to carry stuff sourced from all sorts of places, ranging from India, east europe, ASEAN to africa. You will only see cheen maal occasionally. But recently when I checked out a khanland ikea, it seem to be all cheen maal. It basically crowded out all, by hook or crook. Cheen's brute force method of undercutting all smaller global producers can be bought down only by a concerted "Evil Empire" kind of branding exercise and tangible action. But Walmart and co will lobby DC to not do so.

So Cheen is certainly sitting smug, but then as is their wont, will do something stupid sooner than later to piss off everyone.

Have you noticed that Cheen has no well-known brands in the US? The most well-known one -- Huawei -- is known only because it is banned.

The stuff sent from Cheen to the US are sourced by Amreeki firms under their own brands which means the American firms make most of the profits. The stuff that American firms sell in Cheen are also under American brands and they still make most of the profits. The gross sales of Amreeki firms in Cheen is greater than the gross imports of Cheen product to the US. American MNCs win both in Cheen and in the US.

Why do you think Wall Street and the Multi-nationals are batting for China? The money there is real and the amounts are huge.

The truth is corporate America had infiltrated Cheen far more than the other way around. This is what'll hear from Street analysts and F500 officers going to China -- they'll pick you up in a Buick, bring you to a Marriott, you can get a coffee at Starbucks, get lunch at the MacDonalds across the street or the KFC beside it and maybe catch the Avengers at the IMAX after the meeting.

"Made in China" might be all over the stores in the US but the average American can't name a single chini brand. This is the real reason Western firms -- except for telecoms and other infra industries companies -- are loathed to give up Cheen.

[Suraj]

Chola, you’re already reneging on your assurance to avoid thread derailment. This isn’t the China thread, and you’re simply restating stuff that’s been posted half a dozen times before by you. Please stop.

[Adrija]

"Made in China" might be all over the stores in the US but the average American can't name a single chini brand. This is the real reason Western firms -- except for telecoms and other infra industries companies -- are loathed to give up Cheen.

Yes, that is correct... but to add to that- Cheen has been extremely ruthless- they have ridden on the back of their labour being exploited for shorter-term profits by Massa Inc to get them to handover their technology. IN parallel, they have systematically subverted all of the Western institutions and politicians, contours of which are only now emerging dimly... witness the immediate crawling out of woodwork of that termite Kissinger the minute Bidenwa was declared a winner to ask Biden to stop the fight w Cheen

It is a call for Massa deep state to make as to how to stop this train, and decide when they need to stop the long term bleed. Bidenwa is subverted already, so Cheen has 4 more years at least to continue profiting form the grand web they have spun

hats off to cheen for pulling this off....... so far odds do seem to be in their favour for the short term at least

Will stop here as that is now straddling the line between economics and geopolitics and I can already see the Suraj-san rushing at me w a ban threat

[chola]

Chola, you’re already reneging on your assurance to avoid thread derailment. This isn’t the China thread, and you’re simply restating stuff that’s been posted half a dozen times before by you. Please stop.

Oops. I run with train of thought with what I know. Will stop.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/business/report/ ... 201217.htm
Sovereign fund flow: India replaces China as most sought-after destination
By Surajeet Das Gupta, December 17, 2020
In the year 2020 to date, these funds deployed capital worth a record $14.8 billion in India, which is nearly three times more than what they have put in China - $4.5 billion. India has quietly replaced China as the most sought after destination for global sovereign wealth funds investment in the private sector — a sign of the country’s growing attraction for investors.
According to data by New York-based Global SWF, which tracks over 400 sovereign wealth funds, in the year 2020 to date, these funds deployed capital worth a record $14.8 billion in India, which is nearly three times more than what they have put in China ($4.5 billion).
The gap between the capital deployed in the two countries widened this year, but the trend started in 2019, when sovereign wealth funds invested $10.1 billion in India, surpassing the $6.4 billion it did in China.
This is a far cry from the period between 2015 to 2018, when China was way ahead in the game and sovereign funds invested a total of $46 billion in that country. In contrast, they invested only $24.6 billion in India over the same period.
Says a CEO of a leading global private equity fund with operations in India and China: “China is losing its lustre primarily because of the uncertainties due to the US-China trade tensions. "India, despite its economic crises due to Covid-19, still looks like a more attractive long-term bet.”
The other good news is that west Asian sovereign wealth funds have been on fire as far as their investments in India are concerned.
......
Gautam

[Rishirishi]

When I first went to a khanland IKEA (late 90s), it used to carry stuff sourced from all sorts of places, ranging from India, east europe, ASEAN to africa. You will only see cheen maal occasionally. But recently when I checked out a khanland ikea, it seem to be all cheen maal. It basically crowded out all, by hook or crook. Cheen's brute force method of undercutting all smaller global producers can be bought down only by a concerted "Evil Empire" kind of branding exercise and tangible action. But Walmart and co will lobby DC to not do so.

So Cheen is certainly sitting smug, but then as is their wont, will do something stupid sooner than later to piss off everyone.

Have you noticed that Cheen has no well-known brands in the US? The most well-known one -- Huawei -- is known only because it is banned.

The stuff sent from Cheen to the US are sourced by Amreeki firms under their own brands which means the American firms make most of the profits. The stuff that American firms sell in Cheen are also under American brands and they still make most of the profits. The gross sales of Amreeki firms in Cheen is greater than the gross imports of Cheen product to the US. American MNCs win both in Cheen and in the US.

Why do you think Wall Street and the Multi-nationals are batting for China? The money there is real and the amounts are huge.

The truth is corporate America had infiltrated Cheen far more than the other way around. This is what'll hear from Street analysts and F500 officers going to China -- they'll pick you up in a Buick, bring you to a Marriott, you can get a coffee at Starbucks, get lunch at the MacDonalds across the street or the KFC beside it and maybe catch the Avengers at the IMAX after the meeting.

"Made in China" might be all over the stores in the US but the average American can't name a single chini brand. This is the real reason Western firms -- except for telecoms and other infra industries companies -- are loathed to give up Cheen.

It is slavery in practice. China supplied real cheap workers, who were living in dorms and eating boild rice. They had to work 12 hour shifts with very little wages. This propelled it to the worlds factory and made everyone else rich. The factory owner, the traders, and most of all the western companies. Take a Nike T-shirt for example. It retails for up between 10-20 dollars. The factory only gets about 1.23 dollars, rest goes to the brand owners, retailers, sales taxes etc. The same story is for Phones, pots, pans, pillows, etc etc. China did well with in this model, but the real beneficiaries were the west, who could trade one hour of work against 10 in china.
But now labor is in short supply in China, and they are gradually moving to a different type of economy.

[Uttam]

Here is a good article explaining RBI's intervention in the FOREX market and its effects on inflation.

India wants a v-shaped recovery at any cost

Thanks to $58 billion of RBI dollar purchases in the first nine months, the rupee is the worst-performing Asian currency this year. While inflation last month was a slower-than-expected 6.9%, it has exceeded the central bank’s 2% to 6% range for eight straight months. A stronger rupee might help the central bank tame inflation; a liquidity glut will make it worse.

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By creating a rupee glut, the central bank has delivered the equivalent of an additional 1.25 percentage points in rate cuts — by stealth. That extends a 2.5-percentage-point reduction since February 2019, with 1.15 points coming after the pandemic hit. The Reserve Bank had to do this heavy lifting because the Indian government didn’t want its rickety finances to take too much of the strain. Bolder fiscal easing was possible only with the monetary authority directly buying the government’s bonds, something the RBI was hesitant to do lest monetization of deficits become a habit with politicians.

Hence, the central bank opened the liquidity spigots instead by buying dollars. An odd result of this strategy is that “while the government has limited its support to the domestic economy, it has, via the RBI, invested almost 3% of GDP in foreign assets” between April and September, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. economist Jahangir Aziz.

What will the RBI do in 2021? If demand revives, it can slowly turn off the taps. Corporate earnings, once they’re rising because of sales growth rather than layoffs and wage reductions, can attract investors even without the prop of artificially cheap money. But dislocations in India’s real economy — especially in smaller firms and the labor market — have been way too deep. Chances are politicians won’t want the central bank chief to remove the punch bowl in a hurry.
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Governor Shaktikanta Das’s strategy may be to mop up some of the excess liquidity created by dollar purchases by issuing special bonds to banks. That would have a cost, but overall this approach would keep the rupee competitive for Indian exporters and prevent an inflation spiral. It would also keep the stock market buoyant and the finance ministry happy.

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After the mid-2013 “taper tantrum,” Das’s predecessors perhaps kept interest rates too high for too long. They also kept liquidity tight. Growth began to slow sharply long before Covid.

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[Vayutuvan]

It is slavery in practice. China supplied real cheap workers, who were living in dorms and eating boild rice. They had to work 12 hour shifts with very little wages. This propelled it to the worlds factory and made everyone else rich.

Read "No Logo" by Naomi Klein

[Vips]

Advance tax collection zooms nearly 33% to Rs 1.41 trillion in Dec quarter.

Indicating a sharp revival in direct tax mop-up, advance tax paid by companies in the December quarter rose by 50 per compared with the corresponding period last year, owing to a low base effect. It also indicates that the optimism among corporate houses about their earnings as the economy gradually recovers from the pandemic-induced shock.

The robust revenue collection reinforces hope of a good economic performance in the third quarter of financial year 2020-21 (Q3FY21) after the surprising pickup seen in Q2.

At Rs 1.41 trillion, overall advance tax collection, including corporation and personal income tax, rose by 33 per cent in Q3.

In the April-December period, advance tax mop up stood at Rs 2.99 trillion, a six per cent decline year-on-year (YoY), compared with a 25 per cent contraction seen after the second installment in September.

This also helped narrow the contraction in net direct taxes to 13 per cent as on December 16, compared to a 25 per cent decline seen as on December 1.

Direct tax collection, net of refunds, stood at Rs 5.89 trillion, compared with Rs 6.75 trillion a year ago. The collection is just 45 per cent of the target of Rs 13.19 trillion estimated in the Budget for 2020-21.

Gross collections are down 12 per cent to Rs 7.34 trillion and refunds are lower by nine per cent to Rs 1.45 trillion as of December 16.

Advance tax is paid in four installments — 15 per cent by June 15, another instalment by September 15 (30 per cent), third by December 15 (30 per cent), and the rest by March 15. It is considered an indicator of economic sentiment.

Corporation advance tax in Q3 stood at Rs 1.1 trillion, compared with Rs 73,000 crore collected a year ago, an almost 50 per cent rise. Personal income tax advance collection was six per cent lower in Q3 at Rs 31,000 crore, compared with Rs 33,000 crore last year.

“While the robust growth in corporation advance tax can largely be attributed to the low base effect because of tax reduction in September last year, there are definitely signs of revival in economic activity and jobs, which will help sustain revenue mop up in the last quarter,” said a government official.

Corporation tax collection had declined by 5.2 per cent in Q3FY20 as companies adjusted their advance tax after the government cut tax rate from 25-30 per cent to 22 per cent for existing companies that do not avail of any exemptions, and 15 per cent for new companies, besides a reduction in minimum alternate tax from 18.5 per cent to 15 per cent.

[Suraj]

Another significant datapoint - Indian steel production has been back to pre-pandemic levels since August. Back at over 9MT per month, far ahead of #3 Japan who have scaled back to 7.2MT/month now, from just over 8MT previously. India remains on track to produce much more steel than all of North America (Canada + US + Mexico) as it has done the past 2 years, and potentially close to combined EU production this year.

[Suraj]

Continuing my efforts to keep with the Jal Jeevan Mission every month:
18 Dec 2020


Almost 32% coverage now, starting at 17% when JJM began on Aug 15 2019. Three large states (Haryana, Gujarat and Telangana) with >75% coverage now. Bihar, Punjab, HP and Maharashtra all above 50%. UP and WB remain notable laggards among large states now. TN is on the threshold of the >25% category.
Here is the live dashboard. Click on the toggle button to see change since inception of the program.

Prior statuses:
15 Nov 2020
October 15 2020
September 20 2020
August 15 2020

[VinodTK]

^^^ Thank you Suraj Jee for posting the information.

[Suraj]

PLI scheme may add USD 520 billion to GDP in 5 years: Report

The production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme launched to boost local manufacturing may add USD 520 billion to the gross domestic product in the next five years, according to a report.

The scheme is applicable for 10 select sectors, which are labour-intensive and expected to cater to the growing employment needs and achieving size and scale in manufacturing.

As part of the scheme, the government has made a budgetary outlay of Rs 1.96 lakh crore or USD 26 billion.

The scheme envisages providing on average 5 per cent of the production value as an incentive. This implies that minimum production as a result of the scheme stands to be around USD 520 billion over the next five years, says the report.

The idea is to create a few large manufacturing players with the advantage of policy support to the tune of 5-8 per cent of value add, scale and world-class technology.

If taken off as planned, the scheme could boost exports, thus narrowing the trade deficit by USD 55 billion.

Retail inflation has peaked in Oct; RBI unlikely to cut rates in 2021 coz of sticky core: Report

Retail inflation has peaked in the country but is unlikely to come down enough for the Reserve Bank to make rate cuts in the whole of 2021, Japanese brokerage Nomura said on Friday.

Over the medium term, there are chances of inflation heating up again and the RBI may have to switch to hiking rates as well in 2022, Nomura said.

“In the near term, we see reasons for optimism. After remaining elevated through 2020, we believe consumer price inflation (CPI) has peaked, the brokerage said, pointing to October’s 7.6 per cent level as the highest. The number cooled to 6.93 per cent in November.

Lower food inflation on improving supply dynamics, lagged effects of muted demand and base effects should drive headline inflation lower to 4.5-5.0 per cent in 2021 from the 6.7 per cent in 2020, it said.

The lower inflation should come as a relief from a policy perspective, but the core (excluding food and fuel) inflation is sticky, it said.

“We expect liquidity withdrawal to begin around Q2 and the repo rate to be left unchanged through 2021 but hiked by 0.50 per cent in H1 2022,” the agency said.

[Suraj]

Another datapoint suggesting strong Q3 performance:
Power consumption grows 4.8% in first half of December

India’s power consumption grew 4.8 percent to 50.36 billion units (BU) in the first half of December this year, showing consistency in economic activities, as per government data. Power consumption was recorded at 48.04 BU during December 1-15 last year, according to the power ministry data.

For the full month of December 2019, power consumption was 101.08 BU. Therefore, the extrapolation of half-month data clearly indicates that power consumption is likely to record a year-on-year growth for the fourth month in a row, according to experts.

After a gap of six months, power consumption recorded a year-on-year growth of 4.4 percent in September and 11.6 percent in October. In November, the power consumption growth slowed to 3.7 percent to 97.43 BU compared to 93.94 BU in the same month last year mainly due to early onset of winters.

[Suraj]

India’s State-Led Payment Network Is Growing. Now Nation Wants to Export It

A surge in e-commerce and declining cash usage during the COVID-19 pandemic have boosted India’s state-led shared payments infrastructure.

According to the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), the nation will have processed over $425 billion in commerce by the end of this year. Emboldened by growth and eyeing expansion, the United Payments Interface’s (UPI) umbrella organization is thinking about exporting the model to other countries.

Developed under state guidance and regulated by the country’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, the payments interface began as part of the larger India Stack project, which pooled application programming interfaces (APIs) that could be used by public and private actors to build digital infrastructure.

While UPI is one of the prominent applications of the stack, other services include a unique biometric ID system, known as Aadhar, and electronic document storage.

UPI enables both digital payments and peer-to-peer transfers for 200 banks that are part of the network, and for payment processors such as GooglePay. Put simply, UPI resembles a personal digital wallet that can be used to access and move around money from bank accounts. E-commerce platforms like Amazon and Flipkart have both integrated UPI, allowing residents to pay for goods directly using the platform.

This interoperability is a key part of the pitch being made by the National Payments Corporation of India, the umbrella rule-making body for UPI, in favor of exporting the payments model.

[ArjunPandit]

Another datapoint suggesting strong Q3 performance:
Power consumption grows 4.8% in first half of December

actually i would rate this as the most important in this time. One of my old colleagues found this to be a very reliable indicator during demo time as well. In pandemic, when fuel consumption is limited, this is a strong indicator.

[disha]

Thinking !?

India’s State-Led Payment Network Is Growing. Now Nation Wants to Export It

A surge in e-commerce and declining cash usage during the COVID-19 pandemic have boosted India’s state-led shared payments infrastructure.

Emboldened by growth and eyeing expansion, the United Payments Interface’s (UPI) umbrella organization is thinking about exporting the model to other countries.

Babooze must not think, they must just do. Just do it as if there is no tomorrow. Export the UPI model to all of Africa, Indian subcontinent, Indo-China and link it up with Australia and Japan. Make it a pan indo-pacific shared payments infrastructure.

That is a merchant sitting in Australia or a businessman visiting Japan can transact using the rupay card paisas to a dollar or yen as transaction cost! Digital money transactions in Indo-china can be done using BHIM app!

I do feel that the GOI thinks bold but the babooze are cold!

Here is another bold reform by GOI

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/disinvest ... n-of-india

Disinvestment Drive: Union Government Invites Bids For Privatisation Of Shipping Corporation of India, To Sell Complete 63.75 Percent Stake

[vijayk]

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/covid-e ... -critics-0
Covid Economic Response Scoreboard At Half-Time: Modinomics 2, Critics 0

Ever since Covid-19 laid the Indian economy low, the Narendra Modi government has faced two kinds of criticisms: one relating to the “harsh” lockdowns and the resultant fall in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, not to speak of spiralling infection rates all the way from March to September.

The other criticism was related to the size of the stimulus packages announced by the government, which was declared to be “miserly” and inadequate.

The score at half-time in the fight against Covid – both the health and economic fallouts – is Modinomics 2, Mindless Critics 0.

read it in full...

[Suraj]

As economy heads northwards, Budget expected to provide speed

India, in all probability, is expected to end ‘technical recession’ when it unveils GDP numbers for the October-December quarter on February 26, nearly four weeks after the Union Budget for FY22 is presented.

Now, look at the direct tax collection — it is also showing some signs of recovery. Advance tax collection from companies for the December 15 instalment recorded a growth of 49 per cent, indicating prospects of better corporate earnings.

This has improved overall direct tax collection, where the dip is just 13 per cent now as against 22 per cent in the beginning of November. Other high-frequency indicators such as Purchasing Manager Indices for both manufacturing and services are in the expansion zone. Power generation growth is in the double digits, manufacturing has come out from the red, and industry registered second successive months of growth.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has already made her estimation about near-zero or a marginally negative growth during this fiscal.

This optimism got a further boost when RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das not just lowered the contraction for the fiscal from 9.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, but also expressed confidence that a growth of 0.1 per cent in the October-December quarter and 0.7 per cent during the January-March quarter of FY 2020-21 is expected.

Economic Affairs Secretary Tarun Bajaj on Friday said he is hopeful of the Indian economy getting back on track soon, given the signs of sustained improvement, and that in the next fiscal year the size of the economy may cross the FY20-level by a slight margin.

Now, all eyes are on the Union Budget for FY22. Sitharaman has promised a Budget like “never before” as the government looks to steer the pandemic-battered economy and push growth. Industry captains are expecting more bold measures.

India to witness double-digit growth in next fiscal: Report

“Economic activity is showing signs of traction. The PMI Manufacturing Index is at its highest since 2008,” said the report titled ‘Voice of Asia’ prepared by Deloitte.

The economy contracted by a historic 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2020-21 on account of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The contraction, however, narrowed to 7.5 per cent in the second quarter.

Stronger car sales, rising production of finished steel and diesel consumption, and higher goods and services tax revenue collections indicate that the economy has bounced back strongly since ‘the unlock’, backed by pent-up and festive season demand, the report said.

“We expect India's GDP (gross domestic product) to rebound to double digits in FY2022 after contracting in FY2021.” According to the report, three drivers – inclusive job growth, a robust services sector rebound and a sustained recovery in private demand – will ensure a sustained economic revival and rehabilitation.

The government’s effective policy measures together with prudent business strategies should help the economy grow strongly from the next financial year, it added.

[Suraj]

A Covid-driven new metric called 'Economic Comeback Meter' is being used to track how the economy is returning to normal. A pretty cool measure.
India’s economy recovers better than expected but it is still this far from comeback

India’s economy is recovering at a better-than-expected pace; however, there is a long wait before it makes the comeback. On the basis of three broad aspects of the economy – production, consumption, and investment, it is found out that the economy is on a comeback path as select parameters have seen a gradual but sustained improvement, but, it is still far from a comeback, according to Care Ratings’ Economic Comeback Meter. While an index of -2 to 0 shows deterioration; 0 to 5 shows ‘on comeback path’; 5 to 8 represents comeback; and 8 to 10 indicates growth path; the country’s economic indicators fell in the ‘on comeback path category in the four months to November 2020.

CECM stood at 0.58 in August, 1.1 in September, 1.79 in October, and 2.62 in November. In the comeback tracker, production is represented by power generation, e-way bills, and non-oil-gold imports. On the other hand, consumption is measured by the sales of passenger cars and 2-wheelers, petrol consumption, and GST collections. Further, the investment is gauged on the growth in bank credit, and debt issuance in the market.

Govt has received 120-130 FDI proposals from China since April: Sources

The government has received over 120 foreign direct investment (FDI) proposals worth about Rs 12,000 crore from China since April, when it was made mandatory for a company from countries sharing land border with India to invest in any sector only after getting government approval, sources said. As per that decision, FDI proposals from China need government approval for investments in India in any sector.

The decision was taken to curb opportunistic takeovers or acquisitions of domestic firms due to the current COVID-19 pandemic. “We have received 120-130 FDI proposals from China, worth about Rs 12,000 crore – Rs 13,000 crore,” they added.

India received FDI from China worth USD 2.43 billion (Rs 15,526 crore) between April 2000 and September 2020. Further sources said that certain Chinese companies have applied for registration for bidding in government contracts and those proposals have been sent to the home ministry.

There are no restrictions on Chinese firms for bidding in projects funded by multilateral institutions, they said.

[Suraj]

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/covid-e ... -critics-0
Covid Economic Response Scoreboard At Half-Time: Modinomics 2, Critics 0

Good article. Essentially credits the government for waiting for a clear target to aim its fiscal guns at, instead of emptying the entire cartridge at the bottom when no business was in a position to scale up activity.

It further credits those who had the sense to admit they got their prescriptions for GoI wrong. It's a mark of intellectual honesty when one is able to accept they were wrong. GoI now finds itself sufficiently armed to push for a proper V-shaped recovery instead of a U or multi-W shaped one.

[Shanmukh]

Economy stabilising in November.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 912637.cms

PMI was at 53.7 in November, apparently.

Exports, down 8.7%, are hit due to the second wave of Covid infections in Europe, apparently.

[Suraj]

That is just merchandise. Gross trade continues to report a surplus for the FY so far, $13.6 billion for April to November:
PIB November 2020 trade data

The commodities/commodity groups which have recorded positive growth during November 2020 vis-à-vis November 2019 are Other cereals (171.63%), Oil meals (72.09%), Iron ore (68.15%), Rice (25.88%), Ceramic products & glassware (21.38%), Handicrafts excl. handmade carpet (17.99%), Cereal preparations & miscellaneous processed items (17.04%), Carpet (15.59%), Jute mfg. including floor covering (14.3%), Spices (12.37%), Drugs & pharmaceuticals (11.15%), Tobacco (8.64%), Cotton yarn/fabs./made-ups, handloom products etc. (8.54%), Fruits & vegetables (6.08%), Tea (5.02%), Gems & jewellery (4.1%), Mica, Coal & other ores, minerals including processed minerals (3.69%), Meat, dairy & poultry products (1.35%) and Electronic Goods (0.97%).
The commodities/commodity groups which have recorded negative growth during November 2020 vis-à-vis November 2019 are Petroleum products (-59.73%), Leather & leather products (-29.8%), Cashew (-24.53%), Plastic & Linoleum (-23.26%), Marine products (-16.1%), Oil seeds (-15.2%), Man-made yarn/fabs./made-ups etc. (-11.06%), Engineering goods (-8.12%), Organic & inorganic chemicals (-8.06%), Coffee (-1.27%) and RMG of all textiles (-1.19%).

[cdbatra]

That is just merchandise. Gross trade continues to report a surplus for the FY so far, $13.6 billion for April to November:
PIB November 2020 trade data

The commodities/commodity groups which have recorded positive growth during November 2020 vis-à-vis November 2019 are Other cereals (171.63%), Oil meals (72.09%), Iron ore (68.15%), Rice (25.88%), Ceramic products & glassware (21.38%), Handicrafts excl. handmade carpet (17.99%), Cereal preparations & miscellaneous processed items (17.04%), Carpet (15.59%), Jute mfg. including floor covering (14.3%), Spices (12.37%), Drugs & pharmaceuticals (11.15%), Tobacco (8.64%), Cotton yarn/fabs./made-ups, handloom products etc. (8.54%), Fruits & vegetables (6.08%), Tea (5.02%), Gems & jewellery (4.1%), Mica, Coal & other ores, minerals including processed minerals (3.69%), Meat, dairy & poultry products (1.35%) and Electronic Goods (0.97%).
The commodities/commodity groups which have recorded negative growth during November 2020 vis-à-vis November 2019 are Petroleum products (-59.73%), Leather & leather products (-29.8%), Cashew (-24.53%), Plastic & Linoleum (-23.26%), Marine products (-16.1%), Oil seeds (-15.2%), Man-made yarn/fabs./made-ups etc. (-11.06%), Engineering goods (-8.12%), Organic & inorganic chemicals (-8.06%), Coffee (-1.27%) and RMG of all textiles (-1.19%).

AFAIK GoI didn't used to add services to export figure and publicize it formally. This is closer to true picture. It would be interesting to look at Gross Exports over the last decade though .

[RKumar]

AFAIK GoI didn't used to add services to export figure and publicize it formally. This is closer to true picture. It would be interesting to look at Gross Exports over the last decade though .

Do you think it was a way to present half-truth and show we were heavy import-dependent country so Rs devaluation is justifiable and money was following out due to corruption without being noticed?

[Suraj]

Services exports have been reported for years now. The main problem with services exports is that it doesn’t have the kind of tangible movement and entry/exit record keeping that enables data to be posted by something like the commerce ministry. Instead, since its financial flows, it was reported by RBI. For a long time (greater than 5 years prior timeframe), if you wanted services trade data you got it from RBI quarterly reports. That’s what I did in the 2000s and early 2010s.

Now that India is the fifth or sixth biggest services trading country, the flows are more regular and PIB has started listing this monthly data, since at least the last 2-3 years. RBI continues to separately report services export data.

[Kakkaji]

Govt mops up Rs 8,965 cr till November from auctioned, allotted coal blocks

The government mopped up Rs 8,964.75 crore till last month from the auctioned and allotted mines, according to the coal ministry.

These revenue figures consist of upfront amount and monthly premium only, while royalty and taxes or cess are payable over and above these payments, the coal ministry said in its E-Booklet on reforms.

[Kakkaji]

India’s mining sector to witness reforms, flurry of activities in 2021

The country’s mining sector will see “hectic activities” in the new year with the central government’s approvals for pending mining reforms expected in January itself and efforts continuing to bolster overall mineral output.

The reforms will pave the way for auctioning of at least 500 mineral blocks, Mines Secretary Anil Kumar Jain told PTI and emphasised that calendar year 2021 will be a “bridge year between the past and the future”.

[vijayk]

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/indias-ec ... -un-report
India's Economy Could Prove To Be The "Most Resilient" In The Subregion Of South And South-West Asia: UN Report

"India's economy could prove the most resilient in the subregion over the long term. FDI inflows have been steadily increasing and positive, albeit lower, economic growth after the pandemic and India's large market will continue to attract market-seeking investment," the report said.

Titled "Foreign Direct Investment Trends And Outlook In Asia And The Pacific 2020/2021", the report states that in the first three quarters of 2020, even though greenfield FDI inflows declined in South and South-West Asia by 43 per cent, India alone accounted for 77 per cent of the total such inflows.

The report has observed that while inward FDI inflows to South and South-West Asia had decreased by two per cent in 2019, the inflows were driven by India which accounted for 77 per cent ($51 billion) of the total inflows (66 billion), up 20 per cent from the previous year.

The report also noted that the outward FDI flow from the sub-region saw a modest increase in 2019, rising from $14.8 billion in the previous year to $15.1 billion. Of this too, India and Turkey accounted for the majority of the outflows, with India accounting for 80 per cent ($12.1 billion) of the total outflows. This translated into a 10 per cent increase in outward FDI flow from India over 2018.

[A Nandy]

https://twitter.com/DIPPGOI/status/1344224996281835520

Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved projects worth Rs 7,725.05 crore under the National Industrial Corridor Programme.

Chennai Bengaluru Industrial Corridor (CBIC) takes off with the approval of Krishnapatnam node in AP (Phase I- 2500 acres) and Tumakuru node in Karnataka (Phase I-1736 acres). (2/10)

Krishnapatnam node in Andhra Pradesh will be developed over an area of 2500 acres & will generate employment opportunities to nearly 1,00,000 people. (3/10)

Tumakuru node in Karnataka will be developed over an area of 1736 acres & will generate employment opportunities to nearly 90,000 people. (4/10)

Multi-Modal Logistics Hub (MMLH) at Dadri, Greater Noida will be one of the largest logistic hubs in the country situated bang on the interaction of Eastern & Western DFC.(5/10)

Multi-Modal Logistics Hub (MMLH) at Dadri, Greater Noida will have warehousing, customs clearance, cold storage, value-added packaging, green spaces etc. (6/10)

Multi-Modal Transport Hub (MMTH) at Boraki, Greater Noida will integrate ISBT, Noida Metro, DFC, Indian Railways. State of the art facility in the offering. (7/10)

Multi-Modal Logistics Hub (MMLH) at Dadri & Multi-Modal Transport Hub (MMTH) at Boraki, Greater Noida will be developed over an area of 1208 acres & will generate employment opportunities to 1,00,000 people. (8/10)
Krishnapatnam Industrial Area, AP shall target sectors such as food products, textile & apparel, electronics, automobile & its components, pharmaceuticals etc. (9/10)

Tumakuru Industrial Area, Karnataka shall target sectors such as food products, textile & apparel, electronics, automobile, chemical, general engineering, logistics etc. (10/10).

https://www.nicdc.in/about-DMICDC

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/big-boost ... d-tumakuru

[RKumar]

Services exports have been reported for years now. The main problem with services exports is that it doesn’t have the kind of tangible movement and entry/exit record keeping that enables data to be posted by something like the commerce ministry. Instead, since its financial flows, it was reported by RBI. For a long time (greater than 5 years prior timeframe), if you wanted services trade data you got it from RBI quarterly reports. That’s what I did in the 2000s and early 2010s.

Now that India is the fifth or sixth biggest services trading country, the flows are more regular and PIB has started listing this monthly data, since at least the last 2-3 years. RBI continues to separately report services export data.

Thanks, sir for your reply and the explanation!

[vijayk]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... s?from=mdr
Apple ramping up local sourcing of iPhone parts

Apple is deepening its manufacturing capabilities in India by increasing the local sourcing of components for iPhones besides bringing in more of its partners to kick off domestic production of iPads, AirPods and MacBooks, people familiar with the matter told ET. They added that there has been no change in the company’s plans despite the violence at contract maker Wistron’s plant

[disha]

Just wanted to post this from swarajyamag on expectations on stock market returns in 2021 https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/why-the-b ... er-returns

Please do read the rest of the article. I just wanted to discuss the following two points.

Two, if we accept the possibility of a resurgence of inflationary tendencies in India, it follows that savings avenues like fixed deposits and bonds may not deliver a real return. In the alternative, interest rates will have to rise faster, which will stop any economic revival dead in its tracks even before it has gathered steam. Savers thus have to brace themselves for a period of very low or even negative interest rates on safe savings avenues.

Three, real estate prices are bloated, and the trajectory is down, as state governments all over India seek to boost offtake by cutting duties and taxes. Builders are also accepting price cuts in order to offload existing inventories.

At some point, most governments will realise that unrealistic realty prices cannot be propped up by controlling land supplies and regulatory delays. They also know that jobs will not grow if a high employment generating sector like real estate is kept artificially chained.

I will try to understand and address the point 'Three' above first. Real estate prices in India are truly bloated and it is a good thing if builders accept price cuts and offload existing inventories.

One of the reasons inflation is high in India is because of the supply gap in Real Estate. Further RE is tied up in speculation leading to further inflation and further spiraling upwards. And loose money tends to do that. If the RE prices come down or the quality goes up at same price, that of course being a non-inflationary trend that tends to keep inflation benign (or even lead to deflation).

Food and Energy are volatile and are generally kept out of inflation numbers. For example, if rice becomes costly, people can switch to Bajri as long as a cheaper alternative is available. Or drive less. To a certain degree.

However, both food and energy, and everything else is tied directly to infrastructure. For example, the infrastructure spending on the Dedicated Freight Corridor https://swarajyamag.com/insta/indian-ra ... rage-speed is already yielding results.

This feature means that the freight trains can achieve high average speeds leading to faster transportation of materials. For example the goods train flagged off by Prime Minister Modi on the corridor covered 59.6 km in one hour, while travelling at its designated speed of 60 kmph.

The above efficiency directly addresses the demand-supply gap which is one of the core reason for inflation.

And here is another: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... s?from=mdr

The solar infrastructure and more promise of new ones in Gujarat has led to this

NEW DELHI: Gujarat's new solar policy will reduce electricity costs by over 40% and expand the state's potential as India's renewable energy hub, Chief Minister Vijay Rupani said on Tuesday.

“Currently, the industry gets power at an average cost of Rs. 8 per unit. The new policy will help bring it down to Rs. 4.5 per unit,” Rupani said, speaking while unveiling his state's new plan for solar power.

That's a yuuuuge drop in power prices at the input source itself. Any industry where energy is a major factor (textiles, food processing, machine tools, diamond polishing, data centers....) will see opportunities to lower cost (deflation/non-inflation) or improve margins (profits hopefully plowed back into growth).

If the infrastructure is able to keep pace, then the expectations of inflationary trends will be belied. At least till 2024/2025.

https://www.reuters.com/article/india-o ... SKBN2921AL

India decided on Monday to lift a ban on onion exports from Jan. 1, as prices have fallen sharply in the last few weeks on expectations of a big crop.

Exports of all varieties of onion will be allowed, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said in a notification.

My view is simple here, spending on infrastructure in India is leading to the removal of artificial bottlenecks further leading to benign inflation (or even deflation in some sectors). That is India is entering back into Goldilocks zone (it already was, until the Chinavirus came along).

[Suraj]

The DFCs have the potential to be massive game changers, and I truly look forward to them. One of the prime movers of Chinese growth was an early investment in infrastructure that enabled rapid increase in throughput of commercial activity. If you want rapid growth, you need roads, rail and electricity capability that is rapidly scaled up. The DFCs are such an example. It isn't just that the trains are 2-3x faster , but that they're 2-3x more capacity (longer and double stacked), in addition to which they have modern signaling to enable more trains running simultaneously. The ability to increase throughput by 10x or more as a result, has an enormous bearing on the economic trajectory of the country.

[Vips]

Power demand touches all-time high of 182.89 GW.

All-India power demand on Wednesday morning touched a record high of 182.89 gigawatts (GW), said Power Secretary S N Sahai.

“Today, the all-India demand for power touched 1,82,888 MW (megawatts), which is an all-time high (observed at 0948 hrs on December 30, 2020) crossing previous high of 1,82,610 at 1458 hours on May 30, 2019. The entire demand was met,” Sahai said in a tweet.

According to data from the power ministry, the peak power demand met (the highest supply in a day) during December last year stood at 170.49 gigawatts (GW).

This is quite unprecedented, especially when the coronavirus pandemic has impacted all sectors in the country.

The government imposed a nationwide lockdown on March 25 to contain the spread of COVID-19.

Power demand started declining from April due to fewer economic activities in the country. The pandemic affected power demand for five months in a row – from April to August this year.

Peak power demand met recorded negative growth from April to August this year, due to the pandemic. In March, it was muted at 0.8 per cent. It had dropped 24.9 per cent in April, 8.9 per cent in May, 9.6 per cent in June, 2.7 per cent in July and 5.6 per cent in August.

The power demand recovered from September onwards. Peak power demand met grew at 1.7 per cent in September, 3.4 per cent in October and 3.5 per cent in November.

[A Nandy]

https://pmaymis.gov.in/

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... QmccM.html

Talking more about the GHTC-India challenge, more than 50 companies working on innovative technologies participated in it. PM Modi then spoke about the technologies that will be used at the six locations: Agartala, Lucknow, Indore, Rajkot, Chennai and Ranchi. The ones in Indore, he said, won’t have walls made of bricks; “pre-fabricated sandwich panel” system will be used for these. For Rajkot, PM Modi said, the French “monolithic concrete construction” technology will be used.

Precast concrete system from the United States and Finland will be used in Chennai, while in Ranchi, Germany’s 3-D construction system will be used, PM Modi added. New Zealand’s steel frame technology will be used in Agartala and a technology from Canada will be used in Lucknow, he further said.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... s-7128689/

He added the country has got new technologies for constructing houses for the poor and middle classes, and such projects are hence bound to stand out. “Why can’t we construct better houses, lasting houses, and that too, faster? This is the reason we took the housing technology challenge and I’m happy that 50 global players participated in it. And today, six projects are being launched,” he said. “These technologies will reduce construction time and make available to the poor affordable and resilient houses. Today, these technologies are being deployed in a few cities. Tomorrow, they can be replicated in other cities of the country.”

He stated that investment in infrastructure, especially in housing, acts as force-multiplier. “Government is constantly giving a push to this sector,” he added.

With house prices skyrocketing in recent days, people’s dreams of buying their houses have been shattered, he said. “Their confidence was shaken whether they will be protected in case of dispute. Then interest on bank loans would make people develop cold feet.”

However, lakhs of houses have been constructed under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), he said. “Affordable Sustainable Housing Accelerators -India (ASHA-India) programme is being run in the country to promote research and startups in modern housing technology,” he added. Listing out the features of the houses, he said, “Now you will see innovation in housing construction. It is now ensured that these houses for the poor have basic amenities like electricity, water and gas connection. To ensure transparency, these houses are being geo-tagged.”

Things accelerating....

https://ghtc-india.gov.in/Content/LHP.html
https://ghtc-india.gov.in/Content/Incub ... entre.html

https://ghtc-india.gov.in/Content/LHP-Ranchi.html
https://ghtc-india.gov.in/Content/LHP-Chennai.html

https://ghtc-india.gov.in/Content/img/LHP/Ranchi03.mp4

Steel mesh: https://ghtc-india.gov.in/Content/LHP-Agartala.html

[vijayk]

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/au ... 059909.cms

Hyundai reports 33% jump in sales to 66,750 units in December

[Vips]

GST collections at all-time high of over Rs 1.15 lakh crore in December.

The gross Goods and Services Tax collections touched a record high of over Rs 1.15 lakh crore in December — the highest since the implementation of the regime. The collection indicates that the economy continues to show signs of recovery after a stringent lockdown last year.

With this, the GST has also now crossed the psychological Rs 1 lakh crore-mark for the third straight month in the current fiscal.

The finance ministry has said that the continued rise in the GST mop up is due to the combined effect of rapid economic recovery post-pandemic and the drive against GST evaders.

The gross GST revenue collected in the month of December 2020 was Rs 1,15,174 crore, 12 per cent higher than over Rs 1.03 lakh crore collected in December 2019.

For the month of November up to December 31, 2020, 87 lakh GSTR-3B returns were filed.

"This is the highest growth in monthly revenues for the last 21 months. This has been due to the combined effect of the rapid economic recovery post-pandemic and the nation-wide drive against GST evaders and fake bills along with many systemic changes introduced recently, which have led to improved compliance," the finance ministry said in a statement.

GST revenues during December 2020, have been the highest since the introduction of GST on July 1, 2017. The highest collection till now was Rs 1,13,866 crore in April 2019, it added.

GST collections, which directly reflects the state of economic activity, had plummeted to a record low of Rs 32,172 crore in April, after the government imposed a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus.

Subsequent easing of lockdown restrictions helped collections rise and it posted its first year-on-year growth in September 2020.

During December 2020, revenues from import of goods were 27 per cent higher and revenues from domestic transactions (including import of services) are 8 per cent higher than the revenues from these sources during the same month last year.

The Central GST mop-up stood at Rs 21,365 crore, State GST was Rs 27,804 crore, Integrated GST was Rs 57,426 crore (including Rs 27,050 crore collected on import of goods) and Cess was Rs 8,579 crore (including Rs 971 crore collected on import of goods).

The government has settled Rs 23,276 crore to CGST and Rs 17,681 crore to SGST from IGST as regular settlement. The total revenue earned by the central government and the state governments after regular settlement in the month of December is Rs 44,641 crore for CGST and Rs 45,485 crore for the SGST.

Deloitte India senior director M S Mani said the continued uptick in GST collections would give confidence in the resilience of the economy and indicates that business activities have completely resumed and demand for goods and services continue to be high.

"With major states reporting an increase ranging from 6 to 15 per cent in their GST collections, compared to the same period last year, it is expected that some of the reductions in collections seen in the earlier part of the current fiscal, would be made up by the improving collections in the past three months," Mani added.

CII director general Chandrajit Banerjee said GST revenue growth shows that industry is bouncing back to normalcy.'

"The increase in the revenue from import of goods indicates that Indian economy is on the fast track of growth now after a long dip due to Covid lockdown," he added.

GST revenues have topped Rs 1 lakh crore in 8 out of 12 months of 2019-20 fiscal. However, in the current fiscal, the revenues have taken a hit due to Covid lockdown and consequent slowdown in the economy.

Revenue in April was Rs 32,172 crore, May (Rs 62,151 crore), June (Rs 90,917 crore), July (Rs 87,422 crore), August (Rs 86,449 crore), September (Rs 95,480 crore), October (Rs 1,05,155 crore), November (Rs 1,04,963 crore) and December (Rs 1,15,174 crore).

The GST revenue in April-December 2020 was down 14 per cent compared to the same period last year.

[chetak]

I wrongly believed economy won’t revive without a stronger fiscal stimulus: Swaminathan Aiyar

Synopsis
The good thing about the fiscal prudence that Nirmala Sitharaman has followed is that the long-term scars of Covid will be much less


What are the key factors you see evolving on the macro front for 2021?
India was in reasonable shape as far as macroeconomics was concerned before Covid. There was some fuzzing of the fiscal deficit and yet it was not too bad. The government had 3.5%, maybe it was 4.5%, maybe it was 4.5-5%. A very large number of countries in the world went for a massive fiscal deficit. Japan did 21% straight away. The USA did 10% straight away and with the latest thing we will also go to 20%. India has kept its fiscal stimulus at no more than 2% of GDP. I have been a critic of this. I have been a critic saying we are not doing enough for the poor. We are not doing enough to push out purchasing power. If you do not have a large enough fiscal stimulus, you will not revive the economy fast enough either. I will only say that I have turned out to be wrong to the extent that I did not believe the economy could revive to this extent without a stronger fiscal stimulus.

The good thing about this is the fiscal prudence that Nirmala Sitharaman has followed. It means that the long-term scars of Covid will be much less. With a big fiscal deficit, our debt to GDP ratio would have gone to 90-95% because the fiscal stimulus was kept only at 2%, the debt to GDP will be something like 80% which is much lower plus the interest rates are lower. So this is going to leave more fiscal space for the economy to expand in 2021.

[Vips]

RBI introduces Digital Payments Index, says DPI grew 2x in March 2020 vs March 2018.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has constructed a composite Digital Payments Index (DPI) to capture the extent of digitisation of payments across the country. The RBI-DPI comprises of five broad parameters that enable measurement of deepening and penetration of digital payments in the country over different time periods. The index has been constructed with March 2018 as the base period, with a DPI score for of 100. The DPI for March 2019 and March 2020 work out to 153.47 and 207.84, respectively, indicating appreciable growth, said the statement.