Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 07 Dec 2013 23:47

If only EVMs were as transparent as paper ballot. As of now there are levels of opacity- not just lack of transparency.

For example, results don't have to be withheld but are withheld. Or EVMs could have facility to examine code present in hard coded chips but it is not available.

It is not that a secret ballot demands any more levels of opacity, but there is.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 07 Dec 2013 23:53

gakakkad wrote:undy tv seems to have a pro-bjp tilt of late...

You have to separate two things: facts and opinions.

Facts are based on some measurable data. So if exit polls predict something then it would be stupid to not focus on them. If UPA is doing scams it would be stupid to not give them some air time.

The bias comes in when it comes to opinions and interpretation; and the allocation of airtime to different stories. That is where the narrative is built and the bias becomes obvious.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 07 Dec 2013 23:58

Singha wrote:North Bengal as well sire.

Yes, it's revolting to see. The cross-carrying foot soldiers are almost all from the south--AP, TN, KL. During a trip to Majuli island (the home of Assam's Vaishnavite culture) a few years ago, I had noticed a few of these men hanging around scoping the place like tourists. I told my family then that the Xtians are coming and now they are planning a huge church in the middle of the island. We don't need to be apologetic to anybody about booting these guys out in the rudest way. Will the Christians allow us to build a Hare Krishna temple in the middle of the Vatican?

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 08 Dec 2013 00:07

Victor wrote:^IMO "surprises" are no longer doable even if total control of evms exists with the congis. Only borderline tinkering is possible but granted that even this can do major damage. The massive difference in the crowds and the emotions at NaMo and RaGa rallies is like night and day. There will be a revolution if a vote result goes completely against the prevailing mood, right or wrong.

This is when third parties newly-minted or old ones help. If EVM-magic is there, you give victories to enemy parties but control the essential bottom line, that is get to rule at Center.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 08 Dec 2013 00:42

Victor wrote:
Singha wrote:North Bengal as well sire.
Yes, it's revolting to see. The cross-carrying foot soldiers are almost all from the south--AP, TN, KL. During a trip to Majuli island (the home of Assam's Vaishnavite culture) a few years ago, I had noticed a few of these men hanging around scoping the place like tourists. I told my family then that the Xtians are coming and now they are planning a huge church in the middle of the island. We don't need to be apologetic to anybody about booting these guys out in the rudest way. Will the Christians allow us to build a Hare Krishna temple in the middle of the Vatican?

You are absolutely right about the Bodos, Victor-ji. It is the same with the tea tribes of Tezpur, and also, it is just as bad with the poor Bengali migrants from Bangladesh. Many of them, desperate after their flight from Bangladesh, are forced to embrace Christianity just to keep their families fed.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 08 Dec 2013 01:19

Predictions:

Delhi: BJP - 38
MP: BJP - 150
Chattishgarh: BJP - 55
Rajasthan: BJP - 135

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Dec 2013 02:02

So where are you guys going to be glued for the election results?

TV?
Website?
SM?

I have access to NDTV, Times Now and Headlines Today (TV).

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 08 Dec 2013 02:07

Mort Walker wrote:Predictions:

Delhi: BJP - 38
MP: BJP - 150
Chattishgarh: BJP - 55
Rajasthan: BJP - 135

My prediction to counter above ...

Delhi - Aap forms govt with external support by congI
Chattishgarh - EJ Jogi CM by getting simple majority through some brisk horse trading with third parties.

SwamyG wrote:So where are you guys going to be glued for the election results?

TV?
Website?
SM?

I have access to NDTV, Times Now and Headlines Today (TV).

Teetar ..Hopefully Trolling Enrega ?

Http://mobile.twitter.com/UtsavMitra/lists/twitternrega

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 08 Dec 2013 02:13

I agree with Lilo. AAP will form gov with cong help and chattishgarh will fall to secularists.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Dec 2013 02:15

Lilo: I agree with you.....AAP will probably get the support from Congress. Sad, a party that might not win enough vote shares or seats could end up forming the gov. JINX

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 08 Dec 2013 02:23

So when will the count begin? What channel should i stick to?

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 08 Dec 2013 02:26

The jinx mantra delhi and CG dont go bhajpa way and in MP and Raj it would be a scrape through for bhajpa

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 08 Dec 2013 02:34

RoyG wrote:So when will the count begin? What channel should i stick to?

Pick one and stick to it. I'm going with the noisiest one with most drama & entertainment starting at 6am--Times Now

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Dec 2013 02:36

RoyG wrote:So when will the count begin? What channel should i stick to?

Counting starts at 8:00 am. Results likely to be out by 2:00pm.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Dec 2013 02:43

Gus wrote:
CRamS wrote: Any Cong, in collusion with US/UK, hanky panky in terms of counting votes possible..
Let me guess...another saik type who have never voted in India? (The mahaan asked why India uses Nazi symbol for elections)

You don't need NSA CIA mi6 etc for this. Is it not enough that we get the massa great in every damn thung ..we have to get their help in vote rigging too

We are so bad at rigging that we need outside hand.

Gabbar Singh's atma is so sad.

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 08 Dec 2013 03:06

by Murali
pankajs wrote:

Times Now > Congress war room > Congress Line of defense on Sunday and after

In MP and CG > Taunt BJP on Modi wave if the numbers slip below the current seats
In Del and Raj > On BJP win, credit the Harshvardhan and Raje and deny Modi wave

They are desperate to play down Modi's impact. Why does it matter so much? Most folks who have access to TV or Newspaper have already heard enough of RaGa and NaMo to make their own assessment.

Bhai saab all these angrezi channels put together dont even have 10% viewership share. Why so much focus on them. Watch aaj tak

I agree!! Hindi Channels and their anchors are much much better than the English Indian channels. Aaj Tak is good!

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 08 Dec 2013 03:34

Fine if Modi comes to power, says Imran Khan

Now that we have that out of the way and Khan saaheb's permission...

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 08 Dec 2013 03:37

Alright the ahead of the curve brf eggspurts - one of you start a prediction only thread to post only their prediction. No analysis or edits allowed. Let's see who gets it close.

LakshO · Post by **LakshO** » 08 Dec 2013 05:17

Gus wrote:Alright the ahead of the curve brf eggspurts - one of you start a prediction only thread to post only their prediction. No analysis or edits allowed. Let's see who gets it close.

No BRF expert but my prediction: BJP 4-0

Delhi: BJP - 36
MP: BJP - 125
Chattishgarh: BJP - 48
Rajasthan: BJP - 117

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 08 Dec 2013 05:31

BJP

Delhi 45
MP 135
RJ 125
CGH 55

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Dec 2013 06:14

Karan M wrote:
RoyG wrote:AAP is an extension of Congress. Some on BRF just refuse to see the truth. Kejriwal has people like Yogendra Yadav and other NAC fellows advising him and somehow these people should still be respected. Pathetic.
that may well be true and likely is true - yy and ak plus bhushan are all leftists. but you are missing the point. those youngsters who support these guys are doing so because they have brought into the stuff that only AAP can "clean" the system and BJP = Congress. So somehow, BJP has to appeal to the youth and get them on their side. calling the youth names wont work and is counterproductive. a way has to be found to expose the leftist types and lack of direction in AAP and also to target the youth segment. swamyg pointed out something correct- remember how you were at that age (late teens to early/mid-20s) and that explains a lot of stuff. a lot of energy which needs to be harnessed, positively.

It is a fascinating journey of humans into adulthood. The city kids are more protected and have a shielded life. There are hardships - definitely, but a different variety than the kids of semi-rural and rural kids. The rural kids go through the takleef first hand. So one set of kids from a shielded life enters teenage and adulthood - now they are accosted with the takleefs of life, but have influence on society by having some power. The other set of kids who had earlier exposure, also enter the teenage and adulthood - with the ability to influence and shape the society.

There is the rebellious youth and blood, that wants them to fight evil. They want to solve the problems of life. They feel their elders have not done it because of x,y,z reasons; however they are confident they can be an agent of change. Obviously if one has never climbed rocks, one thinks 'yeah, I can climb Mt. Everest too'.

Humans are prone to performing both good and bad deeds. However, the need to help others and fight unfairness - while having fun and enjoying life are some interest areas for the youth. So the youth are already looking for ideas and mechanism to help society. Enter Left ideology, enter missionary money, enter politicians with great charisma and oratory skills, enter foreign media, enter Maoists, etc The mind wants to try and help people.

There is no reason why BJP cannot harness these youth - for the good of the party and the country. It is a win-win. Give them some cause, give them a reason to be proud of, give them the means to do good, give them hope, vision and opportunities; they will take the country ahead.

Coca Cola and Pepsi, catches its customers young at the high-schools. Though it is not good to allow politics in school, BJP can find ways - through RSS and other organizations - to create a positive image for the young.

Modi has shown how positive energy, focused plan - grand vision with simple implementation will drive progress. Modi's mantra claims, progress and development will solve many problems that plague the country. Modi has kept up with times, and he is showing that a strong leader can make remarkable changes.

Catch them young.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 08 Dec 2013 06:22

gakakkad wrote:undy tv seems to have a pro-bjp tilt of late...

As I said, they will service anyone who pays them. They will kiss the behind of the winner. They have no morals or views.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Dec 2013 06:39

What do you guys make of this AAP boycotting the media - in the early morning. Until some results are out. It looks like they want to prevent BJP from contacting their winners. In the late 90s, TDP MLAs were quarantined in the Viceroy hotel.

Smell of horse-trading, coup.....?

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 08 Dec 2013 06:39

If AAP gets more than 2, that will be cause lot of takleef in loksabha for BJP for sure. Based what response Anna got in Mumbai I can say Mumbai is safe from Kejriwal but not sure about other Urban areas where anti incumbency is high.

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 08 Dec 2013 06:43

SwamyG wrote:What do you guys make of this AAP boycotting the media - in the early morning. Until some results are out. It looks like they want to prevent BJP from contacting their winners. In the late 90s, TDP MLAs were quarantined in the Viceroy hotel.

Smell of horse-trading, coup.....?

I am not sure if Kejriwal has experience of keeping the flock together. But its require high caliber for horse-trading not sure if any leader after P Mahajan is capable of doing that in BJP. Congress can grab them with a blink of eye, they have all the agencies at there disposal too.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 08 Dec 2013 06:50

vivek.rao wrote:
Reapeating Media game of Delhi in every state is not easy. No one watches NDTV or IBN at my home. They only watch local channels. So 200 channels have to co-ordinate. Does not work and gets diluted

Very few watch NDTV/IBN in delhi too. AAP is not a media creation. The popularity it has is genuine in Delhi. And even moderate success of AAP will have atleast one positive impact on Delhi Politics i.e Delhi BJP will have to up their game wrt what they offer to Delhites. It is no longer just Congress they have to beat.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Dec 2013 07:20

10 mins to go before counting starts.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Dec 2013 07:22

Prannoy claims, trends will emerge in 10-15 mins from the EVMs. And in 1 hour, it will be all known - the winners, the losers ityadi. Only tightly contested seats will remain on the table.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 08 Dec 2013 07:24

suryag wrote:The jinx mantra delhi and CG dont go bhajpa way and in MP and Raj it would be a scrape through for bhajpa

Not just Delhi and CG, CongI is going to win 5-0. You just wait for Sonia maidam's karishma. Andhera kayam rahe!ANTI-JINX

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 08 Dec 2013 07:29

AAP campaign has the hallmark of a very sophisticated campaign run by very experienced players.
They targeted angst, steered completely clear of any issue of national importance, and talked all the right words, without outlining anything substantive.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 08 Dec 2013 07:41

Chalo the first one goes to Congies in MP congrats guys it is curtains for bhajpa

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 08 Dec 2013 07:44

namo will loooooooz onleeeeeeeeeeee

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 08 Dec 2013 07:45

MP gives one more to congi khaata - 2

archan · Post by **archan** » 08 Dec 2013 07:46

Final predictions please: all observers worth their salt, post your predictions here!

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 08 Dec 2013 07:52

no numbers but

MP,CG in Congi khaata

Delhi - hung with bhajpa, aap and Congi in that order

Raj in bhajpa ka khaata

member_28131 · Post by **member_28131** » 08 Dec 2013 07:53

All to Congi khataa

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 08 Dec 2013 07:54

Numbers or don't predict.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Dec 2013 07:55

TimesNow so buoyant for Congress in MP. Knee-shivering started, changing my lungies and undies countless times. Maybe turn-off the TVs and Web for an hour would do me good.

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 08 Dec 2013 07:56

ndtv says cong says 6 vs bjp 4 in MP. But interesting to note that Cong has pulled 3 seats which Others had won in 2008, not from BJP

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Dec 2013 07:57

Relax. These are only postal votes.