fanne wrote:Karan M wrote:They are refusing to change their behavior beyond small ticket procurement and that's the issue. Nor has the Govt shown any interest in increasing R&D, weapons budgets to accelerate development and replace existing items. If anything budgets are under pressure and more is being carved out for pvt sector etc without accelerating existing programs.
My take on the situation - So that I set the record straight or get corrected (want to take the discussion a little deeper).
1. The IA, IN, IAF is at fault. Yes, they are doing mere lip service and token orders. Where the equipment is up to mark, the order is meager, where it is in development and good, goal post moved. Of course, there are other contributing factors - bad govt. development partners (slow and inefficient with questionable quality.
2. Is there a Chandigarh (or put a city of your choice) lobby? The one person who was determined to break this, his death was widely celebrated in open, you can only imagine what went in private. The intent of the people leading this is bad (rest doesn't matter, even if the weapon bought is great). Please keep in mind, last year 50% of cap budget of IAF and IA went unspent. The people responsible are willing to throw the country to dogs unless their choice of weapon is bought (and the reason is not that these weapons are great, that is just the excuse).
3. Can the government put more money towards R&D - It can, and that heading has seen a decent increase. Even a 5 times increase will not be sufficient - But here I want to draw attention to - the govt has done tremendous on few fronts 1) Increase efficiency of DRDO lab, make them answerable - 1 example - ADE becoming more answerable, changing methods. What took 15 years to go nowhere, has made very good development in last few years. 2) Change govt partners for DRDO to many private partners (Tata's, Kalyani, L&T and many msme, before only (or mainly) OFB and other govt agencies, could have partnered in proto development, bringing their inefficiency and hemming the r&d effort. 3) Bringing large private players in manufacturing 4)Encouraging MSME with r&d expense payment.
If I read right, govt has concluded that throwing more money at the current DRDO-OFB-DPSU setup is inefficient and will not get to where we need it to be. They have structurally tried to change that. Once this ecosystem is working (and hopefully delivering), more R&D dollars will make sense. With DRDO 50 labs and xyz manpower, there is only so much they can do. However, it does not explain why GOI will not release fund for LCAMK2, AMCA etc. publically (maybe in private they are committed and done outside of public glare).
Again, point to note - The Chandigarh lobby can still derail that.
The current GOI has been in power for seven years. To my mind its become superfluous to blame lobbies and indisciplined/traitorous generals etc for everything.
Fact of the matter is we need systems in place beyond individuals and the directive from GOI to enforce it And then not releasing funds to drastically ramp up or accelerate R&D and production, and a directive to the forces to place order for domestic eqpt, and then claim forces are traitors for not doing so is pointless. Suppose they are willing to order 100 Mk2 and want them in five years. Has the program been funded to that level? Clearly not.
Fact is we can find Lakhs of Crores to give away to farmers as sops, but Rs 2500 Cr GaN fab remains unfunded. Jal Jeevan at tens of billions of dollars equivalent gets focus, but DRDO has to beg and plead for a budget increase at a mere fraction of that amount, whereas each of DRDO's programs gives domestic orders at many multiples invested and brings technology to the table.
There is a mindset issue here and its high time we at least on this forum stopped making excuses for the powers that be. A focus on social justice and electoral victories is essential but we can't ignore growth either, as we have.
Unfortunately, even this GOI has a huge blind spot when it comes to funding domestic R&D and military expansion.
Latter is seen as a wasteful spend and conflict is seen as something that can be "managed". Sadly Balakot and Galwan have lead to this perception being given more credence. If an actual all out fight breaks out though, we will be badly scarred and all the Internet posts we make defending this GOI will be for nought.
It seems to think handing over the responsibility for industrial growth and spending, to the much vaunted pvt sector will give it benefits for R&D too (it won't, as pvt sector is run on commercial not India specific, low/negative margin, indigenization benefit terms) or spending on the military can be "handled" by constantly seeking more with less.
And that's not happening either as the forces are currently in many respects at a real weak spot. The IAF is facing the greatest threat in its history and its squadron numbers are at the lowest. How long should we ignore this?
Every now and then on top of it, we brag of taking back territory for local political benefit. Our opponents take it very seriously and stuff like Galwan happens. Even if there is no outright conflict, what little kit we do possess is heavily flogged and will be due for replacement sooner than later.
Instead of addressing all these concerns openly, the data is not being reported now. For instance, we no longer have MODs Annual Reports being reported.
If the aim was to bulk up locally then the Mk1A should've been ordered early and its production accelerated. Instead there was no interest or focus in doing so. We purchased a mere 36 Rafales and acted as if the PAF/PLAAF would collapse in fright.
Yes, take credit for breaking the Rafale logjam but what was the aim of ordering so few airframes to begin with? The IAF reportedly asked for 54. Even that was cut down to 36. And given IAF budget restrictions, we could barely afford those and delayed all other acquisitions.
The belief in Delhi seems to be that a limited amount of incrementalism is enough to keep PRC/Pak at bay, social justice will keep winning elections and pvt sector will grow on its own. More tax money and so spend more on social justice. All is well.
The intent to build a big picture view of R&D, mfg and actually invest in making it happen as versus merely setting policy, is missing. That requires spending like what China is doing and there is no interest in finding those resources for capacity building. We aren't even doing a fraction of what they did, let alone what they are doing now. And what we do is driven at a pace that is stultifyingly slow.
And that's where China has a march on us and why the west continues to take us lightly, beyond cannon fodder for facing the PRC.
All the yoga day stuff doesn't compensate for the fact only 83 Tejas Mk1A are on order at drip feed rates, there are no confirmed orders for the Tejas Mk2 and DRDO remains under invested and under resourced.
We have similar gaps in literally every area, but can fund a statue to the order of $400Mn. This is the kind of stuff that allows us to be taken as non serious pretenders demanding respect when we have no sense of what power truly is.
The focus on big ticket PR friendly projects over actually making India into a tech heavy powerhouse able to stand and compete on its own terms is befuddling. And a welcome sign for all the powers who sell us tier 2 military eqpt.
Point being such projects get funds, but those that can drastically reduce our dependence on other countries, such as developing our own drugs or metallurgy get short thrift.
At best, tax breaks and offers of reducing red tape of firms from abroad set up shop in India. Tomorrow Vietnam offers an incrementally lower rate and they will get up and leave.
Add the fact we continue to have amongst the most unlivable urban metros, the electoral driven caste based allocations of everything from law and order equity to education to jobs, and its no surprise that our best and brightest will continue to emigrate and using that very same groups achievements, other countries offer them a better system, browbeat us, we have to kowtow to those who think of us as civilizational inferiors.
So and so headed this program. He is now in India to sell you junk fighter XXX, and BRF debates for pages and pages on how great it is or what are its rivals and newsmedia is all about how great our strategy is in buying weapons from every country under the sun.
Reminds me of a RK Laxman cartoon of a desi neta pointing to a country on a map and asking his aide "which is this country, why hasn't it given aid to us"?
We aren't that far from it yet, considering the way we buckled in Wave 2 (how many countries did we ask aid from again?) and how we ran abroad during Galwan asking for ammo and spares. This after Pathankot. Uri. Balakot. Lessons learnt?
Until and unless Delhi wakes up to the fact that industrial policy, capacity building matter and don't come on the cheap, things won't change. And I have been waiting for that change for seven years now, after waiting decades with those who never promised such stuff to begin with.
And all this lobby stuff is tiresome. Years in power and one can't handle a vested interest group despite owning all the reins of power? Simply put either we are not competent or we don't regard them as a threat. In which case why blame them for our lack of interest in hard power?
Russia country holds $100 -140 billion in #gold reserves, roughly 20% of the holdings in the Russian Central Bank
