India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[Manish_Sharma]

<snip>

A Q must be asked by the GOI of the day to the MEA how it has "lost" almost every regional neighbour of ours to the Chinese,unable to prevent them from planning to or establishing military facilities on their soil,erstwhile friends of India for whom India has done a lot forthese nations especially in times of crisis/ natural disasters. Is it because we began to sacrifice our own legitimate interests to those of Uncle Sam,meekly toeing his line,as they might've been in conflict with his?We are still at loggerheads with the US over issues like visas,etc. despite thf fnormous support we've given it.

PS: China's "string of pearls" are solid bases. Djibouti,Gwadar/Kiwani,etc. are going to be major military outposts for China ,where they will have leased sovereignty over the bases just as the US has in some ME countries,where they havf created their own little Yanqui outposts, not just " pit stops" as ours are.We do not have a single squatting right base agreement even with close all Vietnam because of our MEA's erstwhile top policy priority, " don't annoy China".

Wrong on many counts ...

1. Our MEA don't drive policy! It is the PM's of the past and the present PMO that is to be blamed for our lack of correct policy. I had written before and will say it again. Modi thought he could charm Xi/China to create a win-win for both! The stumble, if any, should be laid at the PMO.

General V.K. Singh wrote to manmohan singh about shortage in equipment and ammunition in artillery and armoured regiments.

In his letter, the Army chief had highlighted the critical shortage of equipment and ammunition in artillery and armoured regiments.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi/of ... PX4cL.html

When Modi Govt. took over in 2014 they found that Army wasn't even having enough ammunition to fight porkistan for 2 days, leave out china. They needed time to build up enough reserves to face both the enemies. In that situation Modi had to sit with xi jinpin on swing, while rebuilding of armed forces was initiated.

Then Parrikar took over from jaitley and started bringing armed forces in shape by starting to work in the direction of having ample war reserve. Bringing up MKI availability by procuring parts etc. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr

The minister's remarks come in the wake of a CAG report on ammunition management, which pointed that the Army faced a massive ammunition shortage with reserves that would barely last 20 days of intense fighting.

"I admit the CAG report, which stated that arms and ammunition will last for 20 days if war breaks out. The situation that was there till 2013 has considerably improved now and there was not reason to worry," Parrikar, who is on a two day visit to Nagpur, told reporters here.

There are a variety of ammunition and and if one particular product is short, others can be used to overcome the shortfall, he said.

"We will overcome the shortfall within one and half years and the gap has been filled 50 per cent and process of remaining 50 percent is underway," Parrikar asserted.

He said the necessary stock of arms and ammunition between the year 2008 and 2013 was not taken care of and no seriousness was shown in this regard.

"Now the situation is not that bad and it is not a question of 20 days or 40 days. It all depends on the requirement of arms and ammunition and shell's life...I can't afford ammunition for 40 days since other factors are also involved like the age of ammunition and ease of handling," Parrikar said.

There are a variety of ammunition and and if one particular product is short, others can be used to overcome the shortfall, he said.

"We will overcome the shortfall within one and half years and the gap has been filled 50 per cent and process of remaining 50 percent is underway," Parrikar asserted.

To a question, Parrikar defended the government's decision to freeze the raising of Mountain Striking Corps.

Elaborating on it, he said it requires a whopping Rs 88,000 crore for which the previous UPA government did not make provision, but just took a decision.

"The UPA cabinet took a decision in 2010 which was without proper planning," he alleged.

The infrastructure has to be improved for raising such a force and in the absence of such a provision, the BJP government has decided to put it on hold.

"We are working on to settle the unit," he added. On procurement of fighter aircraft Rafale from France, Parrikar said India would go for direct purchase.

Modi needed to buy time with china, so he played nice with xi jinping. IT WAS A COMPULSION! He had no choice. Now when enough war ammunition reserve is builtup he has praised the Galwan Warriors for killing enemy. He also went to Ladakh to give his full backing to Army and warning 'expansionist' china.

So this narrative of "Modi thought he could Charm xi jinping" is WRONG!

It was mischievous manmohan-antony who deliberately suffocated armed forces of ammunition reserve + offensive weaponery deliberately to weaken them. Modi had to buy time, he bought it! By 2023 we will have prepared enough to administer big slap to lizard. For coming October war we have built up enough to ward off both porkis & lizard.

[banrjeer]

https://asiatimes.com/2020/01/china-cas ... f-of-oman/
Interesting, Russia feels squeezed and is forced cooperate with Iran and China.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 949639.cms
TOI article on Chipak

[vimal]

Where is the money to do large def deals and is such a thing even sustainable? We don’t have $50 billion lying around like the Sauds to buy influence. Russia at best will be a passive side watcher. USA under Biden will revert to old Clinton era chin loving status-quo. The only way forward is to make India atam-nirbhar starting with small arms.

[V_Raman]

This is fascinating. So what we are actually saying is that China missed the window to attack due to our snake charming ways!!! I learn things on BR every time.

[Prem]

To make matters worse if Trump does not get in November you will have unfriendly USA who will play the Kashmir and human rights card to the full,

Yes it may means a loss for desi production, but it's not just about the edge in weaponry but the differential edge and the leverage then spend gives us in checking proliferation in the neighborhood.

Watch Dr Jaishankar's latest interview . There is Bipartisan consensus in USA about foreign policy toward India which is and will remain security driven .If he wins , Biden may be nuisance but not a serious threat. He may have to talk but not walk the talk.

[SSridhar]

Reminder, last so many posts are fit for discussion in the other China thread, not here.

[ramana]

Fairly balanced and interesting talk by Gen Panag related to LAC
Hear him without any bias.

https://twitter.com/rwac48/status/12826 ... 96961?s=21

Recommended by another veteran.
https://twitter.com/realkaypius/status/ ... 58369?s=21

Should hear from 40 min onwards.

The whole military structures and commands are being remade and finally a CDS to separate conduct of war from preparing far war bugbear India suffered since 1947 dont count I guess!

[ramana]

Philip Relying on anti national Hindu to attack GOI is exactly what China wants. Dont go there please.

Ramana

[VinodTK]

Fairly balanced and interesting talk by Gen Panag related to LAC
Hear him without any bias.

https://twitter.com/rwac48/status/12826 ... 96961?s=21

Recommended by another veteran.
https://twitter.com/realkaypius/status/ ... 58369?s=21

Should hear from 40 min onwards.

The whole military structures and commands are being remade and finally a CDS to separate conduct of war from preparing far war bugbear India suffered since 1947 dont count I guess!

Extremely interesting observations; all the experts who talk about taking Tibet and beyond should listen with an open mind.

[williams]

Extremely interesting observations; all the experts who talk about taking Tibet and beyond should listen with an open mind.

Some very wise titbits to pick even though there is a hint of his political leanings. The part I did not understand is that the General saying we are not ready for a two-front war and he compared the US fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. I am would like to understand more about how that applies to the Indian context and geography especially if it is a defensive operation. I need to reread Deans' "two front" war book. I also did not like the part where he says we should not provoke the Chinese if we are not prepared for it. That sounds like an appeasement policy to me.

[Deans]

With these agreements, we have virtually got ourselves a `string of pearls' for free.

Then CPEC road and Gwadar is their other logistical link. Lets discount any military intervention, how efficient is the overland route? Is it an all weather?

China has an all weather road link (once road projects are completed) and nothing stops them transporting material to Gwadar by sea in peacetime.
A more pertinent question is why would they want to do so.

Pak has been propped by - at a cost of Billions of $ that will have to be written off, so that the Pak army does the dying against India, instead of the PLA. I don't see China sending large army formations into Pak, to get at India. Similarly, the Pak submarine fleet is basically China outsourcing most of the Navy war in the Arabian sea to Pakistan. They can certainly base some ships in Gwadar or Djibouti, which will then compel IN to base ships or aircraft in Oman, Chabahar & Seychelles. The number of Chinese flagged merchant ships at risk from this, it at least 10 times higher than our ships from Chinese deployment.
Economically, the only purpose of the Gwadar-Xinjiang route can be to transport Chinese cotton (from Xinjiang) to Chinese run processing plants in Gwadar (which enjoy tax advantages) that will undercut Pakistani textiles and be shipped out from Gwadar. Cotton textiles are 50% of Pakistan's exports
Since both the road and the Gwadar SEZ are paid for by Pak - at high rates of interest - Pakistan has screwed itself as only its capable of doing.
There is no viable traffic on the reverse route (Pak to China).

[Deans]

Extremely interesting observations; all the experts who talk about taking Tibet and beyond should listen with an open mind.

Some very wise titbits to pick even though there is a hint of his political leanings. The part I did not understand is that the General saying we are not ready for a two-front war and he compared the US fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. I am would like to understand more about how that applies to the Indian context and geography especially if it is a defensive operation. I need to reread Deans' "two front" war book. I also did not like the part where he says we should not provoke the Chinese if we are not prepared for it. That sounds like an appeasement policy to me.

We have never provoked the Chinese. The question is for how can a self respecting country so nothing in the face of increasing Chinese provocation. Even if we are accused of appeasement now, I liken the situation to Britain's `appeasement; of Nazi Germany in 1938. That was later recognised as a good move that enabled Britain to massively ramp up its military production during the next year - to a greater extent than Germany did. I see many important milestones in 2022 w.r.t. our defence readiness:
- Border road connectivity projects will be complete.
- India's GDP growth will be higher than China and in my view will continue to be higher (since our popln growth and productivity will be higher).
- The worst gaps in our defences would be fixed (S-400, Rafale, artillery, missiles).
- Internal security challenges will be reduced (already happening in Kashmir post 370, Nxal threat and North East insurgency also lower).
- India vs. Pak economic gap will not just widen further, Pak's economic survival will be at stake - less appetite for military adventures.
- BRI will start unravelling (already happening) when various dictators/generals refuse to pay up.

There is a brief window of opportunity for China to create trouble: Apr-Sept 2020 or 2021. They probably assumed 2020 was a better bet since we had Corona, economic slowdown, Kashmir etc and govt losing a bunch of State elections.

[Nihat]

Every year that passes, the window closes for any Chinese action or adventurism. 2022 or not, we have shown that we as well prepared for any move by the Chinese on the border.

Hope this level of preparation is also extended to other domains such as maritime, economic, cyber and space where we not only deter our enemies, but are capable of inflicting significant damage and costs upon them.

[Aditya_V]

Some very wise titbits to pick even though there is a hint of his political leanings. The part I did not understand is that the General saying we are not ready for a two-front war and he compared the US fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. I am would like to understand more about how that applies to the Indian context and geography especially if it is a defensive operation. I need to reread Deans' "two front" war book. I also did not like the part where he says we should not provoke the Chinese if we are not prepared for it. That sounds like an appeasement policy to me.

We have never provoked the Chinese. The question is for how can a self respecting country so nothing in the face of increasing Chinese provocation. Even if we are accused of appeasement now, I liken the situation to Britain's `appeasement; of Nazi Germany in 1938. That was later recognised as a good move that enabled Britain to massively ramp up its military production during the next year - to a greater extent than Germany did. I see many important milestones in 2022 w.r.t. our defence readiness:
- Border road connectivity projects will be complete.
- India's GDP growth will be higher than China and in my view will continue to be higher (since our popln growth and productivity will be higher).
- The worst gaps in our defences would be fixed (S-400, Rafale, artillery, missiles).
- Internal security challenges will be reduced (already happening in Kashmir post 370, Nxal threat and North East insurgency also lower).
- India vs. Pak economic gap will not just widen further, Pak's economic survival will be at stake - less appetite for military adventures.
- BRI will start unravelling (already happening) when various dictators/generals refuse to pay up.

There is a brief window of opportunity for China to create trouble: Apr-Sept 2020 or 2021. They probably assumed 2020 was a better bet since we had Corona, economic slowdown, Kashmir etc and govt losing a bunch of State elections.

OT there were many reasons for the Munich and many agreements which the British did.

1) It deliberately broke the French, Chechoslovak , Soviet Union military agreement - Poland and Romania did not have to relent to letting Soviet troops on their soil.
2) It made Poland and Soviet Union uncertain- whoever took the first deal with Nazi Germany would finish the other. Remember when the rest of Czechoslovakia was invaded Poland acted as an Ally of Nazi Germany and took 1000 sq kilometers from Chechoslavakia.
3) It made Nazi Germany bold made them unreasonable demands from the Poles.
4) Finally the mass murdering and stupid Stalin thought Hitler was his mirror image and made a deal with him.

But in this whole mess British got away light casualties something like only 200k in Europe- 50000 of them from Bomber command and another 30K from Fighter command, thier Navy another 10K or so. The British deals with Nazi Germany and fall of France easily in May 1940, ensured enough destruction in Europe that after many centuries Europe's overpopulation and colonizing other continents came to an end.

[Roop]

Posting here as it might be relevant to the current situation
Admins, pl. remove if you feel it does not belong

IMO it is a very significant diplomatic escalation by the US and certainly relevant to the current situation. Whether it belongs in this specific thread or some other thread is a matter of opinion. We can leave that to the admins.

The thing I find significant about this is that the US SecState (representing POTUS) has come out publicly and unambiguously trashing China's maritime claims in the South China Sea. This potentially opens the door to US kinetic action against the PLAN in this region at any time. I mean, what if some bumbling, incompetent PLAAF fighter pilot now rams his plane into a US reconnaissance plane, as happened in 2001. Do you think such an incident, if it happened tomorrow, could be brushed under the rug without retaliation, the way that earlier incident was? I think not!

All of this is because Pompeo has come out and trashed China's claims publicly and openly. Any China-sympathizing dhoti-shiverers (or should I say patloon-shiverers) in the US State Dept. have no scope for hiding now, or trying to smooth-talk such a situation into a "mere misunderstanding". Pompeo has not left them that option -- he did not intend to. This is, psychologically speaking, along the same lines as GoI (indeed, the PM himself) announcing anti-Pak kinetic action in both strikes against Pak -- the surgical strike as well as the Balakot strike. The fact that the PM himself took ownership of thoses strikes, and said in effect that more would come if required, removed any scope for Pakis to save face by pretending that India took no action.

[nam]

For once, I hope GoI gives out a national call that we are facing two adversaries and the nation should work towards improving the economy, manufacturing and technology in the country, instead of half baked "hints".

This nonsense of "naming enemies is making enemies" should stop.

US get's it's edge by hammering the threat of China & Russia day in day out. And funding that drive.

We on the other hand...

[idan]

It defies all conventional and economic wisdom to think of CPEC as a route for Chinese goods to Gwadar. The distance is so far and the manufacturing bases of China in it's eastern seaboard, It would be a trek halfway around the world and Karakoram Highway with long stretches of extremely vulnerable highway where landslides and single lane traffic is the norm of the day. The cost of transporting even simple things would be prohibitive and far more than the manufacturing costs. Chinese have realised CPEC is a huge mistake and therefore want access to Indian ports through Ladakh and the excellent Indian road infrastructure in the hinterland.

[RaviB]

Some very wise titbits to pick even though there is a hint of his political leanings. The part I did not understand is that the General saying we are not ready for a two-front war and he compared the US fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. I am would like to understand more about how that applies to the Indian context and geography especially if it is a defensive operation. I need to reread Deans' "two front" war book. I also did not like the part where he says we should not provoke the Chinese if we are not prepared for it. That sounds like an appeasement policy to me.

I think he meant it more in a sense of "underpromise and overdeliver". Unless we have that capability, we shouldn't threaten it, that's just empty bravado.

I don't think we have the capability or will or resolve to attack Aksai Chin and hold it for years to come against PLA attacks, at the moment. It would be terribly expensive in terms of men and money and there are better ways to use both. So threateningthat we'll take over Aksai Chin is rather empty. Maybe it's good to keep the Chinese off-balance but only if they believe we have that capability.

[pankajs]

Mods, I have to quote the post if full for people to get both side of the debate ...

Wrong on many counts ...

1. Our MEA don't drive policy! It is the PM's of the past and the present PMO that is to be blamed for our lack of correct policy. I had written before and will say it again. Modi thought he could charm Xi/China to create a win-win for both! The stumble, if any, should be laid at the PMO.

General V.K. Singh wrote to manmohan singh about shortage in equipment and ammunition in artillery and armoured regiments.

In his letter, the Army chief had highlighted the critical shortage of equipment and ammunition in artillery and armoured regiments.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi/of ... PX4cL.html

When Modi Govt. took over in 2014 they found that Army wasn't even having enough ammunition to fight porkistan for 2 days, leave out china. They needed time to build up enough reserves to face both the enemies. In that situation Modi had to sit with xi jinpin on swing, while rebuilding of armed forces was initiated.

Then Parrikar took over from jaitley and started bringing armed forces in shape by starting to work in the direction of having ample war reserve. Bringing up MKI availability by procuring parts etc. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr

<snip>

Modi needed to buy time with china, so he played nice with xi jinping. IT WAS A COMPULSION! He had no choice. Now when enough war ammunition reserve is builtup he has praised the Galwan Warriors for killing enemy. He also went to Ladakh to give his full backing to Army and warning 'expansionist' china.

So this narrative of "Modi thought he could Charm xi jinping" is WRONG!

It was mischievous manmohan-antony who deliberately suffocated armed forces of ammunition reserve + offensive weaponery deliberately to weaken them. Modi had to buy time, he bought it! By 2023 we will have prepared enough to administer big slap to lizard. For coming October war we have built up enough to ward off both porkis & lizard.

Many still don't get it ... and that HAS been the bane of Indians going up to the PM! I am not surprised ...

I had elaborated further on my point in my very next reply to @Philip linked below ...
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7810&start=5840#p2447776

I don't mind the extravagant welcomes for Xi by Modi. I would possibly arrange for a bigger one if I could. My problem with this GOI as well as the rest is that they think that saam, daam, danda and bheda should be applied sequentially. I differ. They can ALL be applied simultaneously! The same attitude has been on display when dealing with Bakistan in the past. I simply don't understand that mental model!

I would have thrown a bigger welcome for Xi if that was possible BUT from day 1 would have implemented reciprocal non-tarrif measures against China till the balance of trade was restored.

The measures would keep escalating till either Chinese imports came down to the level of Indian exports or Indian exports jumped up to the Chinese imports level or they met and balanced somewhere in the between. This could have been conveyed to China without even talking to them. The Indian importers and Chinese exporters would have delivered the message to the CCP via the import/export data.

Saam, daam, danda and bheda simultaneously on all dimensions not just trade.

So we where not ready to take China militarily because of the mess left behind by the UPA what prevented Modi from tightening the screws on the trade with China from day 1 as I suggest? While Modi/GOI did some tinkering he essentially let China have what they had already captured of the Indian markets without any reciprocity for 6 loooong years!

As I have written before, Modi thought he could charm Xi/China to create a win-win for both! Plus, I will also repeated what I had written before i.e. IFFF the matter of Chinese not vacating Galwan has reached Modi BEFORE the clash, he would have ordered the IA to back off and let the Chinese be on PP-14 and preferred a negotiated settlement as is happening @ Pangang Tso.

I also told someone offline a while back that Modi got lucky that "unfortunate" Galwan incident unfolded the way it did. It created the necessary distraction that allowed Modi to walk away from the real question of his/IA's failure. Think about it for a moment, Galwan did NOT have the infra that was available to China like at Pangong Tso to be able to inject troop as quickly as they did! Per some reports I have read, Chinese road was still some 7 km from the clash site around the beginning of the year. HOW did the Chinese built the remaining 7km AND occupy PP-14 without anyone on the Indian side noticing? The Chinese came with heavy equipment into the narrow Galwan valley, dug up the side, create a streamlines channel for the water, built roads and inducted troops right up to PP-14 right under GOI/IA's watch. Think on that. Modi was able to walk off untainted from the Galwan fiasco because the troops took matters into their own hand. That does not take away credit from him for the his push fro border Infra and sorting out ammo/other basic shortage.

Further, does anyone recall the "Make in India" slogan? What happened to that? Why don't we hear it anymore? While Modi may have forgotten it have you folks too forgotten it?

Why has Modi not spoken of it in recent months/days? Well, because it was as complete faliure! Modi, the wily politico that he is, knows when a drop a slogan that has become stale. Instead, he has coined a new slogan to replace it .. "Atmanirhbar Bharat"! Old wine new bottle.

But why am I bringing "Make in India" and "Atmanirhbar Bharat" into a discussion in the border security thread? Well, the success of "Make in India" now rebranded as "Atmanirhbar Bharat" is dependent on India taking on China! While Modi initially ran with the slogan, he did not do what was necessary to back up that slogan with the result that "Make in India" went nowhere AND he kept it that way because he did not want to rub Xi/China the wrong way. Modi thought he could charm Xi/China from market access to create a win-win!

I have put forth my analysis from 3 different angles i.e. his unwillingness to push China on balance of trade, to step in early in Galwan and on his own flagship "Make in India" to make my case that Modi was being unnecessarily mindful of Xi/China's sensitivities without any reciprocity from the other side till Galwan clash happened. He was still operating under the old paradigm and though he could outdo the previous PMs in charming Xi/China. Hopefully that phase is over and "Atmanirhbar Bharat" does not fizzle out like "Make in India".

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 7819808773

Images from #HotSprings show signs of a dis-engagement as reported by indian media, while majority #China PLA units remain in the support camps further behind, the main area of contention appears clear, ... high resolution imagery expected #IndiaChinaStandOff

IFFFFFFFFFF I read this correct, the Chinese have gone BACK 4 km from their claim line and 2 km from the Indian GEarth LAC. The Chinese troops are still very much around.

[Uttam]

From USNews.Com

China Denies Funerals for Soldiers Killed in India Skirmish: Source

THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT is pressuring the families of soldiers who died in a violent border clash with India in June not to conduct burials and in-person funeral ceremonies in an attempt to cover up an episode that Beijing appears to consider a blunder, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment.

[darshan]

Surprisingly still no news of acquisitions of local wares. One would have hoped that they at least announce it to keep morale up even though announcements don't translate into much.

[Deans]

IMO it is a very significant diplomatic escalation by the US and certainly relevant to the current situation. Whether it belongs in this specific thread or some other thread is a matter of opinion. We can leave that to the admins.

The thing I find significant about this is that the US SecState (representing POTUS) has come out publicly and unambiguously trashing China's maritime claims in the South China Sea. This potentially opens the door to US kinetic action against the PLAN in this region at any time.

All of this is because Pompeo has come out and trashed China's claims publicly and openly. Any China-sympathizing dhoti-shiverers (or should I say patloon-shiverers) in the US State Dept. have no scope for hiding now, or trying to smooth-talk such a situation into a "mere misunderstanding". Pompeo has not left them that option -- he did not intend to. This is, psychologically speaking, along the same lines as GoI (indeed, the PM himself) announcing anti-Pak kinetic action in both strikes against Pak.

I think its significant because it has happened during the election season in the US, when China would have expected US disinterest in their expansionism, partly due to elections and partly Covid. Even with a change in presidency, it would be very difficult for a US president to backtrack
from this position.

[pankajs]

^^
US elections are going to be very messy and no matter who wins the 6 months AFTER the elections too are going to be as bad as 6 months before. China, going by its history, being the opportunist that it is, could be expected to make a major play in Champa sea.

The US establishment is pro-actively positioning itself to dissuade the Chinese from making its play when the US political system is fully distracted. I think that is a wise move but increases the risk of a major conflict particularly between October 2020 to Feb 2021.

[pankajs]

https://stratnewsglobal.com/how-lessons ... ese-moves/
How Lessons From 2018 Exercise Will Help Army Tackle Chinese Moves

NEW DELHI: The Indian Army top brass is revisiting a tabletop exercise it carried out sometime in 2018, war-gaming possible Chinese moves all along the Himalayan frontier. This exercise, done in the wake of the 2017 Dolam (Doklam) crisis, had examined possible Chinese strategies and had come up with India’s counter-response. Done across the Northern and Eastern Command geographies, the exercise was conceived by the Shimla-based Army Training Command (ARTRAC).

It had concluded that China would indulge in ‘hit and run’ tactics against India to test its own forces and also map India’s response to small-, medium- and large-scale exercises-cum-mobilisations and that the PLA would apply pressure at multiple points to try and push the envelope. And repeat the sequence in a year or two.

<snip >

India’s rapid ‘mirror’ deployment in Ladakh and the robust response all along the eastern Ladakh frontier may have surprised many, including Chinese commanders but it now emerges that the Indian Army had anticipated such a contingency and, therefore, the moment the Chinese mobilisation close to the LAC was noticed in early May, India deployed reserve troops of 14 Corps quickly and followed it up with induction of additional brigades from a mountain division earmarked for Ladakh but based outside the Northern Command’s Area of Operations (AOR).

<snip>

Another important finding of the 2018 exercise (and a couple of similar ones in earlier years), was that the Chinese would employ these tactics—deploy, raise temperature and then withdraw after prolonged talks—at least twice in different locations (Ladakh this year, maybe opposite Arunachal Pradesh the next), spread over a period of three-four years and eventually launch a massive attack across the entire Himalayan frontier to settle the border once and for all.

Indian military planners have also anticipated the Chinese strategy of ‘mobilise-deploy-withdraw’ as a ruse to force India to commit forces permanently in operational locations close to the LAC and raise cost. “Today it is Ladakh, next year it could be Barahoti area (in Uttarakhand), and Arunachal Pradesh thereafter. After every mobilisation, if we permanently locate additional forces in forward areas, the PLA would be most happy. That is the mistake we will not commit,” a senior military planner revealed.

<snip>

The June 15 clash at Galwan is likely to have created far-reaching ripples, effects of which will not be apparent immediately but the fact is the trust, for whatever it was worth, on the border is now replaced with tension and weariness, demolishing a long-held belief that the India-China border is peaceful.

As for the future, Indian planners are working on various plans to meet another likely Chinese attempt at intimidation and probing advances in coming years even as diplomacy tries to find lasting solutions to the contentious boundary issue. The plans include improving ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) capability along the LAC, utilising additional heavy lift capability provided by the Indian Air Force (IAF) and speeding up all-weather surface connectivity to Ladakh and other vulnerable areas in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. Raising the strength of various Scout battalions (Ladakh Scouts, Arunachal Scouts, Sikkim Scouts, Garhwal and Kumaon Scouts) is also on the anvil.

<snip>

Meanwhile, a comprehensive assessment of the Ladakh episode is currently under way in different segments of the Indian security establishment as well as in government-linked or government-supported think tanks. The three armed forces are carrying out their own review of the Chinese deployments, particular by the PLA and the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) in Xinjiang, Tibet and in Aksai Chin since early May, while a separate stock-taking of India’s intelligence gathering capability, both TECHINT (technical intelligence) and HUMINT (human intelligence) is being done to figure out what could be done to better collect, collate and analyse varied intelligence inputs that are received from time to time. Think-tanks such as the MEA-funded China Centre for Contemporary Studies (CCCS) are also looking at possible non-military reasons for the Chinese actions in Ladakh and their long-term consequences for India-China relations.

Galwan, more than any other, points to a gap in the gathering/collating/analyzing/escalating process/chain.

There is a contradiction in the piece too. While Chinese push to "force India to commit forces permanently in operational locations close to the LAC and raise cost" and "That is the mistake we will not commit", we are still are going to raise additional battalions and deploy them on the border. Will that not raise the cost to India?

Rather, our strategy should be to force the Chinese too deploy on the border permanently by probing them just as they probe India. There are many points on the LAC that are away from the normal Chinese patrol routes and can easily be crossed by a foot patrol.

[SSridhar]

I think its significant because it has happened during the election season in the US, when China would have expected US disinterest in their expansionism, partly due to elections and partly Covid. Even with a change in presidency, it would be very difficult for a US president to backtrack from this position.

One of the points discussed in a recent think tank meeting was whether the next Ex. Malabar could take place in Indo-China Sea. I prefer near Luzon Straits.

[ramana]

Some very wise titbits to pick even though there is a hint of his political leanings. The part I did not understand is that the General saying we are not ready for a two-front war and he compared the US fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. I am would like to understand more about how that applies to the Indian context and geography especially if it is a defensive operation. I need to reread Deans' "two front" war book. I also did not like the part where he says we should not provoke the Chinese if we are not prepared for it. That sounds like an appeasement policy to me.

We have never provoked the Chinese. The question is for how can a self respecting country so nothing in the face of increasing Chinese provocation. Even if we are accused of appeasement now, I liken the situation to Britain's `appeasement; of Nazi Germany in 1938. That was later recognised as a good move that enabled Britain to massively ramp up its military production during the next year - to a greater extent than Germany did. I see many important milestones in 2022 w.r.t. our defence readiness:
- Border road connectivity projects will be complete.
- India's GDP growth will be higher than China and in my view will continue to be higher (since our popln growth and productivity will be higher).
- The worst gaps in our defences would be fixed (S-400, Rafale, artillery, missiles).
- Internal security challenges will be reduced (already happening in Kashmir post 370, Nxal threat and North East insurgency also lower).
- India vs. Pak economic gap will not just widen further, Pak's economic survival will be at stake - less appetite for military adventures.
- BRI will start unravelling (already happening) when various dictators/generals refuse to pay up.

There is a brief window of opportunity for China to create trouble: Apr-Sept 2020 or 2021. They probably assumed 2020 was a better bet since we had Corona, economic slowdown, Kashmir etc and govt losing a bunch of State elections.

Chanakya calls this as part of the shad upayas.

He says about the six ways (page 210):

Sangraha: Peace by treaty
Vigraha: Keep them busy with war or non-war
Asana: Be watchful, silent and do nothing
Yana: Prepare for war
Samasraya: Seek protection of a stronger king
Dvaidhibhava: Make peace with one while making war with another
----
I don't have the book but I think Asana is when one is confronted with a hostile & powerful state is the recommended practice.

But it has to be with strong measures to strengthen one's own state.

[schinnas]

Pankaj's

The article talks about creating localised paramilitary to man the border with China and to conduct more frequent patrols. Definitely not making it a heavy army deployment like LoC.

Deploying a war fighting force on border duty will wear it down and degrade its capabilities, not to say the cost involved. Cost of maintaining a company of army infantry compared to paramilitary is very different.

[abhik]

Extremely interesting observations; all the experts who talk about taking Tibet and beyond should listen with an open mind.

Some very wise titbits to pick even though there is a hint of his political leanings. The part I did not understand is that the General saying we are not ready for a two-front war and he compared the US fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. I am would like to understand more about how that applies to the Indian context and geography especially if it is a defensive operation. I need to reread Deans' "two front" war book. I also did not like the part where he says we should not provoke the Chinese if we are not prepared for it. That sounds like an appeasement policy to me.

No point making empty threats no? The current levels of funding is just not enough to build up a military force to pose a credible threat to PoK let alone Aksi-Chin, past few governments have not made defence a priority spending area and it shows. The other interesting point was that the highest Defence Spend vs. GDP happened in mid to late 80's and crossed 4%! If one were to extrapolate that to 2020 numbers that would be like adding $45B to the budget or if one assumes it will go just to capital budget, it would be like quadrupling our defence capital budget. Added: Fact is we have spent at those levels in the past, when we were a much more bhooka-nanga country, and would be fare to say we have benefited from the same via 1965, 6, 71, Siachen, 87 brasstracks/checkerboard. And there are country like US etc who do spend at those levels today, so its not really unthinkable but a question of political priority.

[schinnas]

One of the points discussed in a recent think tank meeting was whether the next Ex. Malabar could take place in Indo-China Sea. I prefer near Luzon Straits.

Why not Andaman Sea, near Coco islands?

[srin]

We need to understand the role of seasons and correlate it with border activity. i have some opinions though.

Right now, it looks like Sikkim and Arunachal are seeing heavy rains which makes mobility quite difficult. OTOH, eastern Ladakh seems to be quite dry. So, my guess is that timing is lost and I don't think much is going to happen on the border. A two front war will also be a problem because rivers and canals in Punjab would be full due to monsoon and snow-melt rivers in north J&K and Ladakh would be hard to cross.
The best time seems to be October-December. It's no coincidence that 1962 happened during this time - and the Chinese had to withdraw too (otherwise, their supply lines would have literally frozen in winter). There is probably a window of 3 months for activity on both borders. Only Ladakh and Thar desert area have much wider window.

[abhik]

Waiting for 2022 (or what ever year) is classic procrastination, we might actually be in a worse position in the future compared to now: -
1. We are not actually in a phase of massive military build up (where are the numbers to prove it?) - in fact the spending has flat or even on downward trend. And while we have spent huge amounts on sliver bullets like S-400 and Rafale we have also skipped on Tejas, LCH, Netras, subs etc. And really how much are these silver bullets going to turn the tide? Also I have not really seen any analysis here on what new capabilities that PLA will be able to being to the table 2, 5 or 10 years from now - we need to remember we are in a race (i.e. the enemy is not standing still), and the Chinese now have the defence R&D budget, MIC that is second only to US.
2. On the economy, we must face the fact that the Chinese GDP is far ahead of ours and a few years of marginally better growth will not change that. And none prediction of Chinese economy turning belly up (people have been predicting since early 2000's) have turned out to be true.
3. On border infrastructure, it is true we have improved a lot over the last 10 years and some more projects will come to fruition. But the fact is here again we are in a race against Chinese, they will not be at a standstill, their continuous infrastructure build up is there for all to see on sat photos. For example today PLAAF is at a disadvantage due to lack a proper airfields (even their main base at Hotan does not have HAS, blast pens, support etc.). All that could change in a few years, instead of one we could be facing 4-5 fully developed airbases in the area, with them being able to surge 2-3 times the number of aircraft that they can base now.
4. On Pakistan, yes they have been in dire straits economically for the past decade and half, but their military has still been resilient and resourcefully added new capabilities/modernising their armed forces (of course no to the levels that they would have liked). They may have given up any dreams of offensive war with India decades ago, but will remain a potent threat in being. Also they will be further along the process of turning into a Chinese client state, so we might start seeing operational PLA military bases both in the seas and possibly in the air domain.

[Manish_Sharma]

TWITTER

@DrApr007:

According to US intelligence report, families of PLA soldiers who were killed in Galwan Clashes hv been disappeared by the Chinese govt becoz these families were asking for funeral of these soldiers.
As per independent reports,more than 100 PLA soldiers were killed in this Clash.

https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/128 ... 06560?s=19

[pankajs]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 950740.cms
India proposes to build road in Bhutan’s ‘Yeti territory’ which China claimed recently

NEW DELHI: India has proposed to build a road in Bhutan’s ‘Yeti territory’ — which China claimed recently — enabling New Delhi to quickly access Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, which borders China.

The road, which has strategic significance, will reduce the distance between Guwahati and Tawang by 150 kilometres, ET has learnt.

This will enable India to deploy troops faster to respond to any military moves by China, not only across Tawang, but also towards the eastern region of Bhutan.

This is what seems to have triggered the latest Chinese claim in Bhutan.

[banrjeer]

Then CPEC road and Gwadar is their other logistical link. Lets discount any military intervention, how efficient is the overland route? Is it an all weather?

China has an all weather road link (once road projects are completed) and nothing stops them transporting material to Gwadar by sea in peacetime.
A more pertinent question is why would they want to do so.

Pak has been propped by - at a cost of Billions of $ that will have to be written off, so that the Pak army does the dying against India, instead of the PLA. I don't see China sending large army formations into Pak, to get at India. Similarly, the Pak submarine fleet is basically China outsourcing most of the Navy war in the Arabian sea to Pakistan. They can certainly base some ships in Gwadar or Djibouti, which will then compel IN to base ships or aircraft in Oman, Chabahar & Seychelles. The number of Chinese flagged merchant ships at risk from this, it at least 10 times higher than our ships from Chinese deployment.
Economically, the only purpose of the Gwadar-Xinjiang route can be to transport Chinese cotton (from Xinjiang) to Chinese run processing plants in Gwadar (which enjoy tax advantages) that will undercut Pakistani textiles and be shipped out from Gwadar. Cotton textiles are 50% of Pakistan's exports
Since both the road and the Gwadar SEZ are paid for by Pak - at high rates of interest - Pakistan has screwed itself as only its capable of doing.
There is no viable traffic on the reverse route (Pak to China).

There are massive floods in Wuhan and Yangtze. We need to track iff any of that can impact logistics to tibet and GB. Similarly winter road conditions in Karakoram can also be a factor.

As far as Porks capability in basic ammunition , I am assuming there will growing dependence on China for replenishments and supplies.

[KLNMurthy]

Where is the money to do large def deals and is such a thing even sustainable? We don’t have $50 billion lying around like the Sauds to buy influence. Russia at best will be a passive side watcher. USA under Biden will revert to old Clinton era chin loving status-quo. The only way forward is to make India atam-nirbhar starting with small arms.

Or, maybe openly test some city-buster thermonukes, upgrade missiles, and update nuke doctrine to say that we will escalate rapidly?

Realistically, as you said, we can't match the conventional hardware being arrayed against us dollar-for-dollar. And atma-nirbhar will take time, especially at the high end. So, maybe we do what we can with import, while building atma-nirbhar, and at the same time, signal that no one should try anything funny in the interim, because we will climb the escalation ladder rather steeply and in a hurry. Use that as the "overhang" to push back on our boundaries, maybe skirmish around China-style (but more successfully) in our periphery and all over the world.

I can see that our enemies will activate fifth-columnists and BIF to create rona-dhona about the doctrine, but hopefully that can be managed. What do folks think? Is the change of mindset on our part too high a hill to climb? What if our bluff is called?

We are boxed in and playing pure defense & position play (as in chess) is producing diminishing returns. That's no place for India to be. We need to think of ways to break out of the bind.

[KLNMurthy]

This is fascinating. So what we are actually saying is that China missed the window to attack due to our snake charming ways!!! I learn things on BR every time.

I guess you're being sarcastic?

That's not what the poster was saying. It is just that when grownups do long-game politics with adversaries, they always maintain courtesy and goodwill on the surface, while digging pits for the enemy on the sly. Puppies who yap and act aggressive before they have teeth to bite don't last long in the real world. When adult leaders brag and act aggressive, there is always a purpose and point behind it.

Modi is an adult and an intelligent one.

[KLNMurthy]

For once, I hope GoI gives out a national call that we are facing two adversaries and the nation should work towards improving the economy, manufacturing and technology in the country, instead of half baked "hints".

This nonsense of "naming enemies is making enemies" should stop.

US get's it's edge by hammering the threat of China & Russia day in day out. And funding that drive.

We on the other hand...

I miss George Fernandes. Whatever his politics, the man had integrity, was fearless, and was one of the most patriotics RMs we had.

[KLNMurthy]

It defies all conventional and economic wisdom to think of CPEC as a route for Chinese goods to Gwadar. The distance is so far and the manufacturing bases of China in it's eastern seaboard, It would be a trek halfway around the world and Karakoram Highway with long stretches of extremely vulnerable highway where landslides and single lane traffic is the norm of the day. The cost of transporting even simple things would be prohibitive and far more than the manufacturing costs. Chinese have realised CPEC is a huge mistake and therefore want access to Indian ports through Ladakh and the excellent Indian road infrastructure in the hinterland.

So, the idea of Chinese transporting goods via KKH-CPEC to Gwadar is silly but OTOH them doing the same through Ladakh (after, what? fighting for it and occupying it?) and going down from there into the Indian road network into Kolkata, Paradip and Vizag harbors is an eminently sensible idea?

[KLNMurthy]

...

Plus, I will also repeated what I had written before i.e. IFFF the matter of Chinese not vacating Galwan has reached Modi BEFORE the clash, he would have ordered the IA to back off and let the Chinese be on PP-14 and preferred a negotiated settlement as is happening @ Pangang Tso.

...

How exactly do you know what Modi would have done in that scenario to be able to say this repeatedly with so much certainty?

From the rest of your post (which I didn't quote) it seems that you believe that Modi had a weak and insincere "make in India" policy, along with an appeasement policy for China. And the one incident of Chinese soldiers attacking in Galwan and Indian soldiers fighting back turned both things around 180 degrees, just like that, practically overnight and Modi just went along with the flow.

Do GoI policies--economic, defense, and national security in general, work like that?