India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

[RajeshA]

Kamal Nath at the recent Doha round trade talks, as an example?

In fact an excellent example. The incident with Kamal Nath walking out of WTO Talks may in fact be quite useful in persuading NSG members to see the matter in the right light, as Mulford likes to put it. Kamal Nath certainly gives those Europeans the shivers.

Other countries suspect that India has red lines, orange lines and yellow lines. Considering that the Opposition to nuclear deal in India is so strong and hell-bent on smudging all those hues, especially as the elections are around the corner, these countries should not play around with conditions and prescriptions.

US is trying to get India to also be present at the NSG deliberations as an observer. I suggest the Indian delegation should take Kamal Nath along with them. After all it is nuclear commerce we are talking here, right!

[SSridhar]

Since circa 1974, India has endured pain with all kinds of denial of technology. While it setback our growth, it has also helped us in overcoming many obstacles and develop our resiliency. For a country that has endured all this (and guys like Kakodkar have really gone through all this and yet succeeded), it will not be too difficult to walk out, if it is asked to compromise on the very principles for which it had stood steadfast for so long. It could as well have compromised a long time back and lived peacefully. Of course, the present deal, if it doesn't happen because of NSG's intransigence, it will be a setback for India's civilian nuclear sector. It will be a much bigger setback, IMHO, for those who can earn considerable revnue selling products, technology and services to India. It will also be a setback to them because they will not be able to freely collaborate with Indian scientists and engineers in the nuclear field. Sooner or later, India will grow stronger and will not forget those countries that were so inimical towards it standing on untenable principles.

[amit]

Since circa 1974, India has endured pain with all kinds of denial of technology. While it setback our growth, it has also helped us in overcoming many obstacles and develop our resiliency. For a country that has endured all this (and guys like Kakodkar have really gone through all this and yet succeeded), it will not be too difficult to walk out, if it is asked to compromise on the very principles for which it had stood steadfast for so long. It could as well have compromised a long time back and lived peacefully. Of course, the present deal, if it doesn't happen because of NSG's intransigence, it will be a setback for India's civilian nuclear sector. It will be a much bigger setback, IMHO, for those who can earn considerable revnue selling products, technology and services to India. It will also be a setback to them because they will not be able to freely collaborate with Indian scientists and engineers in the nuclear field. Sooner or later, India will grow stronger and will not forget those countries that were so inimical towards it standing on untenable principles.

Boss, as usual an excellent summary.

I for one can sleep easy at night.

This is because I'm fully confident that whichever way the cookie crumbles in this deal - as things stand now - it's not going to be end of the world for India.

[Philip]

One undeniable fact is that the N-deal was always touted by our dear PM right from the start as India's official acceptance into the "nuclear club".However,along the way with each layer of onion of the deal being peeled off,it has become depressingly evident being clearly expressed from the mouths of the nuclear club members themselves, that we are NOT being recognised as a "full member" of the nuclear weapons club,nor ever will and to even get our "turd" class status,we will have to make a multitude of compromises to suit them,before we are graciously allowed to squat only on the verandah!

There is going to be NO admittance into the hallowed, cosy,radioactive sanctum sanctorum for us,no matter even if MMS dances the bhangra ad nauseum,bearing a lifetime's supply of sarson ka saag and chicken a la tikka. If we are to be allowed in at all,like the great colonial clubs of yore,the rule is that "natives are to be allowed in only as bearers" .In one of my clubs abroad,the founding fathers composed of the elite of that nation, who included knights of the realm,dons of Ox-Bridge and the aristocracy of that country, were so riled at this rule,that they founded their own rival club for their elite where the membership rule was that "Europeans would not be allowed in even as bearers" !

So let everyone not fool themselves into thinking that we are up there with the nuclear Gods and frankly,we are in a far better position in developing our own N-technology and plants our own,answerable to none,where we can uplift the finger to any condescending blighter,rather than shamefully allow our nuclear "private parts" to be inspected whenever and by whomsoever, at the diktat of the N-club and its agents.All the nuclear food that we will be able to consume will only generate 7% of our energy needs,that too only by 2020 and if there are no delays at all with the supply of fuel,equipment and building of plants.A very tall order given our past experience!

Lastly,the overwhelming pressure already being put upon India by the statements from various US politicos,is that if we ever have the audacity to "fart" further,the unwritten threat is that we can expect to be unceremoniously kicked out of the verandah of the club into the cold and will be forced to vomit all the radioactive crumbs that we have consumed ,paid for at exorbitant cost,for the great privilege of squatting outside like serfs. The sad truth is that our current rulers have betrayed our founding fathers who fought for freedom,sacrificed their lives and stood tall as equals with the rest of the world in a day and age when we were not even self sufficient in food and had to suffer the ignominy of pleading and genuflecting each time to Lyndon Johnson's "generosity" for every Pl-480 wheat shipment and the toxic parthenium weed that was given free with it.We now want to grandly reclaim our erstwhile status of being colonial slaves,always bowing and scraping at the white man's behest,some ever ready to even clean his backside too in the bargain!

[amit]

There is going to be NO admittance into the hallowed, cosy,radioactive sanctum sanctorum for us,no matter even if MMS dances the bhangra ad nauseum,bearing a lifetime's supply of sarson ka saag and chicken a la tikka. If we are to be allowed in at all,like the great colonial clubs of yore,the rule is that "natives are to be allowed in only as bearers" .

Philip ji, great writing with rich imagery!

However, I'm a bit confused as to how you consider the club to be hallowed? Who the hell cares if India is a member or not, as long as our objectives are fulfilled?

Sorry but this: we must be admitted as full P6 member or we'll start crying -- seems to be just an H&D issue and nothing more.

Hence it really doen't matter one bit if we're not among the those whom you look at in awe as "Gods".

So let everyone not fool themselves into thinking that we are up there with the nuclear Gods...

And

... We are in a far better position in developing our own N-technology and plants our own,answerable to none...

I don't see how that's going to be affected by this deal since the civilian and strategic programs are going to be kept separate and that's a red line drawn out by the GoI and they can't go back on that and hope to face the electorate next May.

... shamefully allow our nuclear "private parts" to be inspected whenever and by whomsoever, at the diktat of the N-club and its agents.

I don't think we'll have our modesty outraged. We're not a blushing maiden at her coming out party you know. We're pretty nasty ourselves, in case you haven't noticed - recall the Kamal Nath example I made a few posts above.

Lastly,the overwhelming pressure already being put upon India by the statements from various US politicos,is that if we ever have the audacity to "fart" further,the unwritten threat is that we can expect to be unceremoniously kicked out of the verandah of the club into the cold and will be forced to vomit all the radioactive crumbs that we have consumed ,paid for at exorbitant cost,for the great privilege of squatting outside like serfs.

Philip ji, have you ever had the urge to ah ahem, fart? If you have then I'm sure you'll know that when the urge really comes hard, there's hardly anything you can do to keep it in check and hence you make a loud noise in front of everybody. I'm sure if circumstances ensure that India has an urge to "fart" in future it will do it first and then think of consequences.

The sad truth is that our current rulers have betrayed our founding fathers who fought for freedom,sacrificed their lives and stood tall as equals with the rest of the world in a day and age when we were not even self sufficient in food and had to suffer the ignominy of pleading and genuflecting each time to Lyndon Johnson's "generosity" for every Pl-480 wheat shipment and the toxic parthenium weed that was given free with it.

Sorry to say this but your rather long Samuel Johnson-esque sentence contradicts itself. First part talks about our founding fathers standing tall as equals and the last part talks about the same founding fathers following policies that led to the PL-480 humiliation later on.

We now want to go grandly reclaim our erstwhile status of being colonial slaves,always bowing and scraping at the white man's behest,some ever ready to even clean his backside too in the bargain!

A free man can be made a slave against his will by use of extreme force. However, those who have a defeatist mentalty with utter lack of self-confidence in their own ability and integrity are born slaves because that's the status they are most comfortable in since they can blame everybody else for their misery. You don't need international treaties to make them slaves.

It's only people confident in their own abilities who go out and engage the world. The meek sit at home and worry about being groped in their private parts or being humiliated and even of being not given permission to "fart".

I'm extremely sorry that I have say something like this.

[NRao]

One undeniable fact is that the N-deal was always touted by our dear PM right from the start as India's official acceptance into the "nuclear club".

He has been back tracking since J18. The truth is that part of that back tracking had to come because of backtracking by Bush - who started with India is a responsible nation to something that was not worth it. And, the battle went on to become a battle between NPAs and DAE.

Just that MMS should have agreed he backtracked and done so openly.

[Arun_S]

One undeniable fact is that the N-deal was always touted by our dear PM right from the start as India's official acceptance into the "nuclear club".However,along the way with each layer of onion of the deal being peeled off,it has become depressingly evident being clearly expressed from the mouths of the nuclear club members themselves, that we are NOT being recognised as a "full member" of the nuclear weapons club,nor ever will and to even get our "turd" class status,we will have to make a multitude of compromises to suit them,before we are graciously allowed to squat only on the verandah!

There is going to be NO admittance into the hallowed, cosy,radioactive sanctum sanctorum for us,no matter even if MMS dances the bhangra ad nauseum,bearing a lifetime's supply of sarson ka saag and chicken a la tikka. If we are to be allowed in at all,like the great colonial clubs of yore,the rule is that "natives are to be allowed in only as bearers" .In one of my clubs abroad,the founding fathers composed of the elite of that nation, who included knights of the realm,dons of Ox-Bridge and the aristocracy of that country, were so riled at this rule,that they founded their own rival club for their elite where the membership rule was that "Europeans would not be allowed in even as bearers" !

So let everyone not fool themselves into thinking that we are up there with the nuclear Gods and frankly,we are in a far better position in developing our own N-technology and plants our own,answerable to none,where we can uplift the finger to any condescending blighter,rather than shamefully allow our nuclear "private parts" to be inspected whenever and by whomsoever, at the diktat of the N-club and its agents.All the nuclear food that we will be able to consume will only generate 7% of our energy needs,that too only by 2020 and if there are no delays at all with the supply of fuel,equipment and building of plants.A very tall order given our past experience!

Lastly,the overwhelming pressure already being put upon India by the statements from various US politicos,is that if we ever have the audacity to "fart" further,the unwritten threat is that we can expect to be unceremoniously kicked out of the verandah of the club into the cold and will be forced to vomit all the radioactive crumbs that we have consumed ,paid for at exorbitant cost,for the great privilege of squatting outside like serfs. The sad truth is that our current rulers have betrayed our founding fathers who fought for freedom,sacrificed their lives and stood tall as equals with the rest of the world in a day and age when we were not even self sufficient in food and had to suffer the ignominy of pleading and genuflecting each time to Lyndon Johnson's "generosity" for every Pl-480 wheat shipment and the toxic parthenium weed that was given free with it.We now want to grandly reclaim our erstwhile status of being colonial slaves,always bowing and scraping at the white man's behest,some ever ready to even clean his backside too in the bargain!

Philip saar: Thanks for writing that. As is said in Indic traditions, one has to use a language suitable for the comprehension level of audience, (thus India has many scriptures that carry the same message weather it is in Ved, Darshan Shastra, Shruits, Purana, Bhagwat Gita, Itihas or Panchatantra) so it is the message that one conveys rather then the hair splitting of the sentence, verbs or nouns. BRF is about clash of ideas & message and not writing style. So while one may not like one way of conveying the message, he will surely find/await another more appealing/compatible way to receive the message, that however does not negate the validity of the message.

Thanks again for conveying the message for ordinary janata.

[Gerard]

U.S. official urges Japan to back India nuclear deal

[Gerard]

All the nuclear food that we will be able to consume will only generate 7% of our energy needs,that too only by 2020

Why?

[Prem]

Since circa 1974, India has endured pain with all kinds of denial of technology. While it setback our growth, it has also helped us in overcoming many obstacles and develop our resiliency. For a country that has endured all this (and guys like Kakodkar have really gone through all this and yet succeeded), it will not be too difficult to walk out, if it is asked to compromise on the very principles for which it had stood steadfast for so long. It could as well have compromised a long time back and lived peacefully. Of course, the present deal, if it doesn't happen because of NSG's intransigence, it will be a setback for India's civilian nuclear sector. It will be a much bigger setback, IMHO, for those who can earn considerable revnue selling products, technology and services to India. It will also be a setback to them because they will not be able to freely collaborate with Indian scientists and engineers in the nuclear field. Sooner or later, India will grow stronger and will not forget those countries that were so inimical towards it standing on untenable principles.

Boss, as usual an excellent summary.

I for one can sleep easy at night.

This is because I'm fully confident that whichever way the cookie crumbles in this deal - as things stand now - it's not going to be end of the world for India.

Indian mentality is No small favour forgotten and no small insult unevenged. The ones who let us down now will come to regret latter. Question is can world afford angry Indians in 21st Century of global turmoil.

[Arun_S]

All the nuclear food that we will be able to consume will only generate 7% of our energy needs,that too only by 2020

Why?

Gerard: Just two pointers:
1. Nation's "Energy needs" is vastly different from "Electricity needs". (by an order of magnitude)

2. See Kakodkar's ppt chart on "Electricity Needs" and the share of "Nuclear Electricity generation" for 2020. Even if for the sake of argument one assumes that the envisaged 40GWe from imported LWR can start to be built in India in next 6 years (at the rate of 6 new plants/year, of 1,100MWe each) given that it takes 6 years to build N power plant, to meet 40GWe target for 2020.

As an aside I would like to know which other country has even tried much less succeeded in installing even half of the envisaged 11GWe nuclear power plants for 6 years in a row? One has to be realistic in solving Indian needs.

And no one is bothered to ask/talk about Indian "Energy needs" as if "Electricity needs" == "Energy needs".

[enqyoob]

To meet ENERGY needs

Hey, how do u post an in-line image from ur desktop to here, pls?

[Anujan]

Of course, the present deal, if it doesn't happen because of NSG's intransigence, it will be a setback for India's civilian nuclear sector. It will be a much bigger setback, IMHO, for those who can earn considerable revnue selling products, technology and services to India. It will also be a setback to them because they will not be able to freely collaborate with Indian scientists and engineers in the nuclear field. Sooner or later, India will grow stronger and will not forget those countries that were so inimical towards it standing on untenable principles.

An excellent summary SSridhar-saar,
You should also note that the NSG is aware the MMS staked the political future of his gubmint on this deal. If the deal falls through, no future gubmint would touch any future version of this deal with a 100ft long pole. Bhajpha is already on the record crying "capitulation !" and "horse trading !" and "taking parliament into confidence". They will drive a hard bargain. Kangress will be like a "billi" and "garam dhoodh". Commies are "principled" about their commitment to lifafa from the chinis and third front ? what third front ?

If there is a "test" vs "dont test" lobby fight going on within the scientific establishment and political circles, the "test" group's hands are going to be much strengthened. If the deal falls through, it will be interesting times ....

[JE Menon]

>>it will not be too difficult to walk out

The question of difficulty on this issue does not arise. We are not emotionally attached, or in any other way tied to, to any equation other than the one negotiated. Any emergent situation that is not in line with our specific expectations will mean that the outcome is not to our expectation, and therefore, there will be zero difficulty in walking out.

Whose "feelings" are we going to hurt? America's?

Meanwhile, what do people make of the fact that this spineless government, like other spineless governments before, has decided to hold its ground at the WTO talks? Curious no? Courageous in one area, cowardly in another?

RajeshA,

I've noticed your comment somewhere on this thread to the effect that "A Jew will only listen to another Jew" or something to that effect... Can't find it anymore but I don't think it's been deleted. I suggest you refrain from such stereotyping. It is as ridiculous and insidious as a Pak saying "A Hindu will listen to another Hindu"...

[JE Menon]

Lakshmic,

Who or what is Bhajpha?

I hope you are not referring to our former PM Vajpayee, certainly one of our better leaders and a man who will live in our history as the one who took a very vital civilisational decision that ensures our existence for as long as there will be human life on this planet...

If it is, is there a need to ridicule him? He is only doing what he has to do as a key opposition figure. Politix is politix.

[Rahul M]

Lakshmic,

Who or what is Bhajpha?

I hope you are not referring to our former PM Vajpayee, certainly one of our better leaders and a man who will live in our history as the one who took a very vital civilisational decision that ensures our existence for as long as there will be human life on this planet...

If it is, is there a need to ridicule him? He is only doing what he has to do as a key opposition figure. Politix is politix.

bhajpa is the hindi acronym of BHaratiya Janata PArty. not ex PM Vajpayee.

[John Snow]

[putnanja]

U.S. circulates draft amendment to NSG norms

U.S. circulates draft amendment to NSG norms

Sandeep Dikshit

“More or less to India’s satisfaction”

Draft was first handed over to Germany

IAEA had approved India-specific safeguards accord

NEW DELHI: The United States has circulated the draft amendment to the guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) ahead of the latter’s scheduled meeting on August 21 and 22 to consider India’s case, senior officials here have confirmed.

The draft, finalised in consultation with India, was first handed over on Thursday to Germany, which heads the NSG.
‘Gratuitous’ references

It has dropped the “gratuitous” references made on committing the NSG members to ensuring India adopted full-scope safeguards at the earliest, said the officials.

India has resisted full-scope safeguards and wanted only those plans identified by it to be under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards.
Consultations

The officials said the draft, after being fine-tuned several times in consultation with the U.S., was more or less to India’s satisfaction.

The 45-nation NSG must approve by consensus the amendment to its guidelines to accommodate India in global civil nuclear commerce. This has been necessitated as India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treat (NPT).

Earlier, the IAEA had approved by consensus an India-specific safeguards agreement. Besides the U.S., other major countries such as France, Russia and the United Kingdom are backing India’s case at the NSG.

In case the NSG agrees to amend the guidelines, Washington plans to place the India-U.S. 123 Agreement before Congress on September 8, for its consideration. India will also sign Inter-Governmental Agreements with countries such as France and Russia.

On Tuesday, U.S. Ambassador David Mulford said the draft was being framed in close consultation with India and it would be released to the NSG members any day.
Diplomatic offensive

He also said the U.S. had launched a major diplomatic offensive led by President George Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to persuade some NSG members with non-proliferation concerns to back India’s case.

New Delhi too had dispatched nearly a dozen envoys to nations to convince them of India’s record in not exporting sensitive nuclear technology and its commitment to the principal of complete nuclear disarmament.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher told journalists in Tokyo on Friday that Washington was pushing Japan and other NSG to agree to a waiver for India “expeditiously” for enabling the nuclear deal with India.

[putnanja]

Plan to augment uranium mining

Plan to augment uranium mining

Special Correspondent

CCEA approves mining of an additional 75,000 tonnes

NEW DELHI: The government has decided to increase indigenous uranium mining by an additional 75,000 tonnes.

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) on Friday approved a Rs. 200-crore project “Prospecting and Exploration of Potential Areas for Augmentation of Uranium Resources’ at a meeting here.

The project cost will be met with a 11th Plan outlay of Rs. 120 crore and 12th Plan outlay of Rs. 80 crore, Minister for Science and Technology Kapil Sibal told newspersons after the CCEA meeting.

The CCEA also approved a related project, ‘Augmentation of Airborne and Ground Geophysical Capabilities,” which will help identify potential areas in the Proterozoic basins for detailed surveys and exploration of uranium.

The project cost is estimated at Rs. 258.69 crore with a 11th Plan outlay of Rs. 249.05 crore and 12th Plan outlay of Rs 9.64 crore, Mr. Sibal said.

In a decision that would improve flood forecasting and mitigation measures in the downstream reaches of the Brahmaputra, the CCEA gave its ex-post-facto approval for the signing of a memorandum of understanding with China for providing hydrological information about the river in the flood season.

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, during his visit to Beijing in June this year, signed an agreement for China providing the data on Brahmaputra\ Yaluzangbu river during the flood season from 2008 to 2012.

[putnanja]

Eleventh hour for the Nuclear Suppliers Group

Eleventh hour for the Nuclear Suppliers Group

Siddharth Varadarajan

Though the Nuclear Suppliers Group was set up as a response to India’s 1974 nuclear test, its seven founding members today support the idea of allowing nuclear trade with the country. Surely, the time has come for the cartel to stop looking at India as a non-nuclear weapon state.

As international cartels go, the Nuclear Suppliers Group is perhaps unique in having a DNA structure that is schizophrenic. One-part exporters’ club and two-parts recruiting sergeant for the international non-proliferation system, the NSG can certainly take credit for helping some fence-sitters make up their mind over the years about joining the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). But with the number of holdouts now down to three — includi ng India — a form of natural selection is leading to the ‘export’ part of the group’s genetic code slowly triumphing over the non-proliferationist part.

By September 8, we shall see whether this process is allowed to reach its logical end — the lifting of the group’s anachronistic ban on nuclear sales to India — or whether a last ditch effort by the non-proliferationists within produces a mutation that will only end up harming the NSG in the long run. That is the date by which the United States hopes to shepherd through an amendment to the NSG’s highly restrictive export guidelines. Will the waiver India is given be clean and unconditional, thereby allowing the country to participate in full civil nuclear cooperation? Or will a partial, conditional waiver force India to walk away from the nuclear deal and free us of our commitment to place a number of indigenous reactors under international safeguards? This is the stark choice the 45-nation nuclear cartel must make in the next four weeks.

Set up in 1975 as an ad hoc body, the purpose behind the ‘London Club’ as it was known then was to tighten export controls to ensure that nuclear facilities and materials sold exclusively for peaceful use were not diverted to military purposes. Though a control regime in the form of the Zangger Committee and its ‘trigger list’ had existed from 1971 and 1974 respectively, its applicability was confined to states that were party to NPT. The London Club — whose seven founding members were the United States, Russia, France, Britain, Germany, Japan and Canada — incorporated the Zangger trigger list of nuclear items and export guidelines, and made them applicable to all ‘non-nuclear weapon states,’ that is, the whole world other than the five countries that had nuclear weapon state status under the NPT.

Despite being provoked by India’s alleged misuse of Canadian equipment in its ‘peaceful nuclear explosion’ of 1974, the NSG’s first guidelines did not prohibit nuclear sales to the country or to others that were not members of the NPT. Of course, individual NSG members like Canada and the U.S. quickly adopted national export rules requiring full-scope safeguards of recipient states. But the group’s guidelines merely demanded an assurance of non-explosive use, the acceptance of International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards on the items to be sold, physical protection and controls on any re-transfer of imported material to a third party. That is why India and Russia could go ahead and sign the Kudankulam agreement of 1988 for the supply of reactors. On the so-called sensitive nuclear technologies such as enrichment and reprocessing equipment, the NSG went beyond Zangger by calling on its members to exercise restraint on sales but did not bar their sale.

By the start of the 1990s, the number of countries that remained outside the NPT was down to under 20, excluding the successor states of the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. Apart from several Arab and African nations, the major nuclear-capable countries that had yet to join the treaty as non-nuclear weapon states were Argentina, Brazil, India, Israel, Pakistan and South Africa. Mainly in order to push these states towards explicitly renouncing the weapons option once and for all, the NSG in 1990 began discussing the possibility of requiring the acceptance of comprehensive, or full-scope, safeguards on all nuclear facilities in a country as a condition for making any nuclear sales to it. This suggestion had first been mooted in the 1970s and 1980s but resisted by suppliers for commercial reasons. The end of the Cold War and the discovery that Iraq — an NPT signatory — had developed a clandestine nuclear weapons programme prompted the NSG to adopt two major new guidelines. The first guideline, finalised in May 1992, adopted the full-scope safeguards requirement and was intended as a means of pushing NPT holdouts towards accepting the treaty. The second set of guidelines was aimed at tightening export controls on “dual use” items so that non-nuclear weapon states would not be able to divert them towards a military purpose. Linked to this was the push at the IAEA for a more stringent set of safeguard controls known as the Additional Protocol.

After the NSG adopted the full-scope safeguards requirement for nuclear sales, key holdouts like Brazil and Argentina eventually acceded to the NPT. Today, the only countries left outside are India, Pakistan and Israel. All three countries possess nuclear weapons, though Tel Aviv has not officially declared this to be the case. In the case of India, the decision formally to embrace nuclear weapons was prompted in part by the efforts of America and its NSG allies to force the country to give up its nuclear option through a tightening of international restrictions. Once India tested its nuclear weapons in May 1998, Pakistan had no option but to follow. The fact that the two countries became de facto nuclear weapon states, then, is proof of the failure of the NSG’s strategy towards them.

As the NSG reviews its achievements, it is worthwhile asking what possible utility the full-scope safeguards guideline can have in today’s world. India and Pakistan will never accede to the NPT as non-nuclear weapon states and Israel’s status cannot be resolved without the Middle East peace process reaching a definitive stage. Thus, if retention of the guideline is intended as an incentive for accession to the NPT, there is no question of it working in the case of the remaining three holdouts. But what about the guideline’s use as a means of curbing the risk of further proliferation? It is clear that supplying nuclear material to Pakistan, given Islamabad’s abysmal proliferation record, will entail significant proliferation risks. Similarly, allowing Israel to access civil nuclear cooperation will surely place stress on the acceptability of the NPT in West Asia. For these two countries, then, there is considerable merit in retaining the NSG’s guideline for the time being. In the case of India, however, there is no reason to assume that allowing the country to engage in safeguarded nuclear commerce with NSG members will increase the danger of proliferation. Not only has India demonstrated responsibility and restraint in its nuclear and dual-use export policies, but it has also additionally committed itself to placing a number of its indigenous reactors under IAEA safeguards in exchange for imported fuel, thereby reducing the potential size of its military nuclear sector.
Meaningless

The NSG’s guidelines were intended to deal with the problem of proliferation in a world where the potential number of countries that could go down the nuclear weapons route was much larger. Its emphasis on regulating the access of non-nuclear weapon states to supplies had a certain relevance in the 1970s, 1980s and even 1990s. But today, it is meaningless for the cartel to continue to treat India as if it does not possess nuclear weapons. If one reviews the national position of NSG states, it is evident that the seven founding members and all members with a significant nuclear export industry are in favour of recognising the reality of India’s status. Those members most opposed to waiving the NSG’s rules for India are those who either have a theological position against nuclear energy (eg. Austria and New Zealand) or who are not major players in the international nuclear industry. When India has been able to negotiate unconditional supply agreements with large nuclear vendors like Russia and France and also with the U.S. after a fashion, it doesn’t make sense for the NSG as a whole to impose conditions based on the false assumption that the country is somehow a non-nuclear weapon state.

If the U.S. is serious about delivering its side of the July 2005 bargain with India, it must drive home this fundamental point to the NSG members. To the extent to which Russia and France will be major beneficiaries of the proposed exemption for India, they too need to stress the importance of the waiver being clean and unconditional. Adding NSG-wide conditions — such as mandating a supply cut-off in case India tests a nuclear weapon — will only eat into the autonomy of decision-making of individual countries. Every individual member is free to adopt its own export rules but should not seek to impose its national standards on NSG states.

India has come this far despite the serious misgivings that exist within the country about the nuclear deal because it believes the NSG would be prepared to look at the matter coolly and rationally. If, however, the suppliers group insists on living in the past and pursuing extraneous agendas, New Delhi will have no option but to walk away.

[Gerard]

India`s Bharat Electronics eyes opportunities in nuclear energy

[putnanja]

Unbound by the rules - K. Subrahmanyam

Clear understanding is needed on the deliberations in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) on August21-22 on granting India a waiver from guidelines which prohibit all nuclear commerce with countries which are not members of the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and with non-nuclear weapon nations which are not under full scope safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). India is not a signatory of the NPT and the safeguards agreement approved by the IAEA on August 1 recognises that India has a military nuclear programme which will not come under safeguards.

India has not approached the NSG for the waiver. The United States, the founder of the NSG (earlier called London Suppliers Club),backed by other co-founders Russia, France, UK and Germany is now recommending the waiver. The irony is the London Club was established in 1975 by US, USSR, UK, France, Germany, Japan and Canada as a response to India’s 1974 nuclear test. At that stage the aim was to prevent nuclear proliferation by countries obtaining dual use nuclear technology and diverting it to weapon development. 34 years have passed since that nuclear test. It is logical to review the situation today.

Currently, only four countries are outside the NPT — Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and India. Israel had developed its arsenal since 1967 even before the NPT was drafted and has no interest in civil nuclear commerce. North Korea was a member of the NPT, but withdrew and conducted a nuclear test. After negotiations with China, US, Russia, Japan and South Korea, it has agreed to give up is nuclear arsenal and return to the NPT. That leaves only two countries outside the NPT — India and Pakistan which have nuclear weapons and are interested in nuclear commerce.

The NSG founders have come round to the view that incorporating India into the nonproliferation regime, though not into the nonproliferation treaty is to the advantage of the nonproliferation objective and in international interest. They cannot include India as a weapon state in the NPT as that would require amendment to the treaty. The nuclear weapon powers dare not touch the NPT as that might lead to its unravelling .India’s reasons for going nuclear are now well understood. Though India conducted its nuclear test in 1974 and it was called a peaceful nuclear explosion,it did not go for weaponisation till 1989. Meanwhile Pakistan developed an India-specific nuclear arsenal with Chinese assistance. At that time China was neither in the NPT nor in the NSG.

The NSG during the Eighties did not pay attention to nuclear proliferation through uranium enrichment using centrifuge method. The Zangger list of technologies and equipment to be prohibited for export did not include items related to uranium enrichment but concentrated on plutonium production and reprocessing. Pakistan benefited from this grave lapse and most of its technology and equipment came from the NSG countries of Western Europe. It was only after Iraq’s clandestine nuclear programme was uncovered in 1991 the uranium enrichment technology and equipment came under export ban list. It may also be noted the Pakistani proliferation to North Korea, Iran and Libya were all uranium enrichment technology.

In the view of US and other co-founders of NSG, India is a country with advanced nuclear technology which has now been admitted into the international thermo-nuclear research project. India is developing fast-breeder technology and is also doing research on conversion of thorium into uranium 233 for use in reactors. India has designed its own reactors. India has an impeccable record on non-proliferation over the last 34 years and has now legislated export controls regarding dual use technologies in harmony with NSG requirements. It has displayed remarkable restraint in its doctrinal position by adopting a no first use strategy and in the build up of its arsenal, though placed between two nuclear weapon powers with an ongoing proliferation relationship between them and one of which has declared its arsenal as India specific.

The founders of the NSG therefore feel that India is an eminently suitable case to be brought within the nonproliferation regime by being extended a waiver. This brings in India’s additional reactors under the IAEA safeguards, makes India a stake holder in the non-proliferation regime and provides India one more source of clean energy. India’s fast growth will lead to vast expansion of energy generation and providing India nuclear energy option will contribute to reduce carbon emission by India. These are all in global interests.

The NSG is not a statutory body like the IAEA. While its decisions are recorded in IAEA they are implemented by each member according to its own national laws. The NSG consensus is largely influenced by the major powers who are the primary sources of nuclear technology. Therefore there are limits to the extent nonproliferation devotees can press their points of view against the wishes and interests of major powers. The role of the NSG is becoming increasingly consultative.

What is at stake in the NSG meeting is the prestige of the major nuclear powers who are in favour of incorporating India in the mainstream non-proliferation regime. Waiver for India will not create any inconvenient precedent because there is only one other nuclear weapon country with a civil nuclear programme — Pakistan. But its proliferation history cannot be compared to India’s nonproliferation record nor can it be classified as a country with advanced nuclear technology. Therefore the Indian case will have to be considered a unique one and there are no proliferation consequences involved in this waiver.

The writer is a senior defence analyst

[putnanja]

Nuclear trade exemption for India won't come easy

Nuclear trade exemption for India won't come easy
Reuters

Vienna, August 8: : Nations anxious to safeguard the fragile Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) will seek conditions for lifting a 34-year embargo on nuclear trade with India at the United States' behest, diplomats and analysts say.


They agree India should not expect a free pass to world markets in nuclear fuel and technology for civilian use as part of a deal with Washington because it has not signed the NPT or ruled out further testing of atomic bombs.

But India's governing coalition, with a shaky majority in parliament, has scant room for compromise on conditions. A written-in ban on future nuclear tests, for example, would be almost impossible politically for New Delhi to accept.

The 45 nations in the Nuclear Suppliers Group will meet Aug. 21-22 to consider a US draft for a waiver allowing trade with India as an NPT outsider. An NSG green light would send the U.S.-India deal to the U.S. Congress for final ratification.

Stalled by Indian political disarray until last month, the 2005 deal vaulted a big hurdle on Aug. 1 when India won U.N. nuclear watchdog approval for a plan subjecting its designated civilian nuclear reactors to regular inspections.

Qualms about advancing the deal bowed to a consensus that putting 14 of India's 22 reactors under International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring would be good for non-proliferation.

But inspections will be contingent on "continuous" nuclear supply from abroad, and some on the IAEA's 35-nation governing board, 19 of whom are also in the NSG, left little doubt that a trade waiver would not come so easily, and not without a price.

"The NSG's decision will have huge import for the future of non-proliferation," said Sharon Squassoni, senior arms control analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

New Delhi, fending off opposition charges the deal will make traditionally non-aligned India a strategic vassal of the United States, notes the deal does not touch its nuclear arms sector and says it anticipates a "clean, unconditional" NSG exemption.

"The Indians are misreading the NSG membership if they think they are going to get that. It is not going to happen," said a European diplomat, echoing others ahead of the NSG gathering.

Changing NSG policy requires approval by consensus only. A decision by the group, created after New Delhi's 1974 nuclear test, is not foreseen before a second meeting in September.

Conditions that may be proposed for India to do business with the nuclear cartel, diplomats said, could include periodic review of the waiver and wider-ranging, short-notice inspections beyond the limited regime agreed with the IAEA.

Crucially, any nuclear test should halt trade, many suggest. NPT INTEGRITY AT STAKE

NSG members want to ensure that no items India imports for its civilian nuclear power industry could be quietly siphoned into its atomic bomb programme, beyond IAEA safeguards.

"Many countries would find it hard to supply a civilian programme in a state that also has nuclear arms without stronger barriers to leakage between sectors," said another diplomat.

More broadly, they aim to minimise concern that rewarding a state which developed nuclear arms in the 1970s with Canadian reactor technology obtained ostensibly for civilian uses will destroy respect for the 40-year-old NPT.

The Bush administration and major allies say the deal will nudge the world's largest democracy towards the NPT mainstream and combat global warming by fostering use of low-polluting nuclear energy in burgeoning developing economies.

Arms control groups accuse nuclear powers favouring the deal of being keener to reap its prospective hefty commercial and political benefits than preserve non-proliferation principles.

Critics fear the deal could spur the only other non-NPT states, Pakistan and Israel, both with nuclear firepower and a history of regional conflict, to press for similar concessions.

Further, they say, it sends a "double standards" message to Iran, an NPT state with a nuclear programme under U.N. sanctions due to suspicions, but no hard evidence, it is after atom bombs.

Analysts divide NSG sentiment into 15-20 likely backers -- close U.S. allies and Russia; a similar number of potential backers like China, Germany and Japan; and the rest champions of disarmament like Switzerland, Austria, Ireland and New Zealand who would propose conditions that others could go along with.

India has observed a voluntary test moratorium since 1998 and begun talks with the IAEA on intrusive inspections.

But some U.S. lawmakers have big reservations about the deal unless it complies with the Hyde Act that stipulates trade with India must be frozen if it tests another atom bomb. The 2006 act also requires permanent, unconditional inspections in India.

If the waiver does not spell out such minimum conditions, the Bush administration should not bother seeking NSG approval before it leaves office in January, a powerful congressional leader wrote to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice this week.

The deal faces indefinite limbo if not ratified by the end of September, when Congress adjourns for November elections.

[ramana]

The draft hasnt been leaked yet to the NPA?

[Arun_S]

Urea policy, uranium mining plan get govt nod

9 Aug, 2008, 0129 hrs IST, ET Bureau
NEW DELHI: The government on Friday approved a new policy for fertiliser makers to boost investments in the sector and reduce government’s subsidies. The government also cleared a Rs 200-crore uranium mining plan that will boost the country’s nuclear power programme. The idea is to add another 75,000 tonnes of uranium for the programme, science and technology minister Kapil Sibal said here after a meeting of the Union Cabinet.

Mr Sibal said the new fertiliser investment rules would promote joint ventures abroad, which will help meet India’s domestic demand through imports at competitive prices. According to the new policy, additional urea from the revamp of existing units will be recognised at 85% import parity price with a floor price of $250 and a ceiling price of $425 a tonne. Urea from the expansion of existing units would be recognised at 90% of import parity price with a floor price of $250 a tonne, the government said in a statement.

The new policy also provides that coal gassification-based urea projects will be treated at par with other new and existing plants, which will encourage use of local coal. Analysts expected fresh investments to be announced because of linkage to import parity pricing. The policy was approved by the Cabinet committee on economic affairs (CCEA) chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

The government also decided to provide more market access to least developed members of the South Asian Free Trade Area (Safta). It has been decided to remove 264 items from the sensitive list of 744 items on which market access was restricted. The move is in line with the country’s announcement to open up its market to these countries without insisting on reciprocal benefits. Mr Sibal said India’s exports to these countries exceed imports from them.

The CCEA also cleared a proposal to invest Rs 200 crore on exploration of uranium to increase fuel supplies to atomic energy generation stations. The panel approved investments of Rs 120 crore over the next four years and Rs 80 crore in the five years ending 2017 on uranium exploration. This would add another 75,000 tonne of uranium resources to the country’s nuclear power programme, Mr Sibal added.

The CCEA also approved another plan to augment the country’s ability to identify areas for exploration of concealed uranium deposits. The project cost is estimated at Rs 258.69 crore.

The government also approved deals on maritime transport and social security with The Netherlands, a social security agreement with Germany, a bilateral investment promotion deal with the Syrian Arab Republic and deals on agriculture with Botswana and Canada.

Given that GoI is the mai baap for poor injuns, I did not want to be proven wrong at the will of powers to be, (Some will recall the jewish parable of "Is the bird alive or dead?"). I had known for many months, of the addition 75,000 tonne Indian Uranium reserve, but then since mai baap had all the data and not a free-bird like me I had to keep my peace.

I am glad that post-facto of no-confidence motion in parliament pivoted on India-US civil deal, the honorable Shri MM Singh's government has decided to share this good news from under the carpet. The existence of additional 75,000 tonnes of natural uranium if reported earlier would burst the bogie/baloon of "India has small Uranium reserve" and compromise the "reason to exist" for the nuclear deal with US.

To remind the significance of the numbers. Indian known Uranium reserves have been traditionally pegged at 77,500 tonnes (to as high as 94,000 tonnes if secondary quality ore is also taken into account). India did extensive aerial survey last few years and they found as much more Uranium then was was known before (but that info was kept to a tight circle of people). And if Union Cabinet can have more meetings where "Science and technology" minister is allowed to have more ideas at the right time, he can add another 75,000 tonnes to India's "U" ore reserve at whim.

This would add another 75,000 tonne of uranium resources to the country’s nuclear power programme increasing the Uranium reserve from 77,000 tonne to 152,000 tonne. DAE did the hard work, the political masters did their thing. DAE deserve our commendation on prospecting and finding the additional 75,000 tonnes. Good job DAE. That will go a long way to serve ATV fleet for next 150 years, as well as fast AHWR/FBR ramp up on our own steam. Now ATV just needs credible payloads. Now full steam with LIF pleeze.

Can Indian science and technology minister do the same for Petroleum reserve and Gold please?

Similarly, information that is not widely known is, gas reserves in Godavari is many times more of earlier estimate and Rajesthan is sitting on large gas reserve. So much that India can thumb or play hardball on Iran gas pipeline deal.

That reminds me of another parable from greater India that at the time consisted of greater Gandhaar and what is now called central Asia (Tajakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbakistan and Eastern Turkmenistan).

The Hunter and the Bird

A hunter once caught a small bird. ‘Master,’ said the bird, ‘you have eaten many animals bigger than I without assuaging your appetite. How can the flesh of my tiny body satisfy you? If you let me go, I will give you three counsels: one while I am still in your hand, the second when I am on your roof, and the third from the top of a tree. When you have heard all three, you will consider yourself the most fortunate of men. The first counsel is this: “Do not believe the foolish pronouncements of others.” ’

The bird flew on to the roof, from where it gave the second counsel, ‘ “Have no regrets for what is past.” Concealed in my body is a precious pearl weighing five ounces. It was yours by right, and now it is gone.’ Hearing this the man began to bewail his misfortune. ‘Why are you so upset?’ asked the bird. ‘Did I not say, “Have no regrets for what is past”? Are you deaf, or did you not understand what I told you? I also said, “Do not believe the foolish pronouncements of others.” I weigh less than two ounces, so how could I possibly conceal a pearl weighing five?’

Coming to his senses, the hunter asked for the third counsel. ‘Seeing how much you heeded the first two, why should I waste the third?’ replied the bird.

[p_saggu]

How do they prospect for Uranium from an aerial survey?

[Amber G.]

How do they prospect for Uranium from an aerial survey?

One can do radiometric survey ( Gamma ray spectrometry) which can measure gamma rays emitted by K, Th or U up to about 1/2 a meter inside the soil

One can also do magnetic survey which measures tiny differences in magnetic field
and can thus determine type of metals etc.

One has to fly rather low (few hundred feet - may be helicopter ) for finer survey.

[putnanja]

NSG can’t play with India’s N-arms plan

NSG can’t play with India’s N-arms plan

India could still walk away from the civil nuclear deal with the United States if the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) chooses to insist on New Delhi submitting to eventual full-scope safeguards on all its nuclear facilities.

Senior officials told HT that India’s strategic nuclear programme was non-negotiable and New Delhi would not open all its nuclear reactors for international inspection.

That was central to India’s separation plan, where it had promised to place 14 out of its 22 reactors under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Though the US has reportedly dropped a reference to India acceding to full-scope safeguards in the draft circulated to NSG nations, the fear in South Block is that smaller countries like Ireland, Norway, Switzerland and New Zealand might try to re-introduce such a clause.

India, however, is pushing ahead with all its diplomatic energies to convince NSG countries that this deal is in the interests of the international community just as it is in New Delhi's interests.

A shot-in-the-arm for India has come from Canada, which now favours waiving NSG requirements for India, which bar member states from engaging in nuclear trade with a country that has not signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).

“And India has come a long way in terms of democracy and the rule of law, and the nuclear constellation of issues has evolved to the point where we just can’t continue with our position that has been absolute and negative to allowing India back into the nuclear club, as it were,” Canada’s Foreign Minister David Emerson told The Globe and Mail recently.

Laying out the perspective ahead of the August 21-22 meeting of the NSG at Vienna, the officials said India would have a presence at the session though it was not yet clear whether it could be present as an ‘observer’.

[p_saggu]

Every noosepaper out of india is repeating the warning about India willing to walk away should NSG not play ball. Two things are happening:
1. GOI is playing Psyops, and
2. Noose papers are reading BRF

[Rahul M]

Every noosepaper out of india is repeating the warning about India willing to walk away should NSG not play ball. Two things are happening:
1. GOI is playing Psyops, and
2. Noose papers are reading BRF

a bit of juggling gives :

1. BRF is playing Psyops, (with itself) and
2. GOI is reading Noose papers. (and chewing paan)

[Arun_S]

Every noosepaper out of india is repeating the warning about India willing to walk away should NSG not play ball. Two things are happening:
1. GOI is playing Psyops, and
2. Noose papers are reading BRF

Listen to Ramana, this is not just happenstance, its only when you have hit the jackpot in understanding the overall picture and the game in progress, can one say that with confidence. I too am convinced there will be no conditions in the NSG.

[Raju]

Newspapers are extensions of Govt machinary.
where the Govt has something to hide, newspapers will rarely make a noise to alert the commons.

But sensing an unconditional acceptance of Indian draft at NSG.
the newspapers have been given the go-ahead to build scare scenarios which then can be used to give the
govt a sweeter victory and image-building before public eyes.

[Sanatanan]

NSG can’t play with India’s N-arms plan

I feel the caption of the article (especially the bolded part) is a bit too sweeping.

NSG can, and most probably will, make it very difficult, if not impossible, for India to construct new nuclear facilities, and maintain the existing ones, in the non-civil sector.

[svinayak]

[RajeshA]

RajeshA,

I've noticed your comment somewhere on this thread to the effect that "A Jew will only listen to another Jew" or something to that effect... Can't find it anymore but I don't think it's been deleted. I suggest you refrain from such stereotyping. It is as ridiculous and insidious as a Pak saying "A Hindu will listen to another Hindu"...

Hi JE Menon Sir,

I wrote "Howard Berman is a Jew, so he will only listen to another Jew."

Come to think of it, it could be construed as politically incorrect. However, with this I have only tried to express some of the high regard in which I hold Jews. Perhaps I could have said, "..., so he will give another Jew a more patient and serious hearing", which may be a stereotype but was meant to be a positive stereotype.

When I say Jew, then it is less to be equated with Hindu, perhaps more with "Person of Indian Origin (PIO)", without going so far as to necessarily attribute the same level of ethnic cohesion, loyalty or mutual respect amongst the PIOs, even as I feel reassured that this is a process moving in the right direction.

Secondly, it is a well known persuasion tactic to send someone else to do the persuasion, with whom the target audience can feel a higher level of comfort and trust.

Given however the sensitive nature of my comment, I apologize for it.

As far as, what a Pak would say, excuse me for having a certain difficulty in adopting the required Paki thought process, in order to be able to produce similar speech.

[RajeshA]

NSG can’t play with India’s N-arms plan

I feel the caption of the article (especially the bolded part) is a bit too sweeping.

NSG can, and most probably will, make it very difficult, if not impossible, for India to construct new nuclear facilities, and maintain the existing ones, in the non-civil sector.

1) All efforts to try to bring more of the 8 strategic nuclear installations, which have been kept out of the purview of IAEA safeguards as per the separation plan, is not going to work, especially as the separation plan was sorted out in order to draw a thick fat line. The NSG cannot go beyond what is already agreed upon and add more tick-marks on the list.

2) As far as a general prescription is concerned for extending full-scope comprehensive safeguards to all nuclear reactors, and India accepting to work towards a de-facto NPT NNWS status, is also not going stick. USA and India have agreed, that India is not willing to accept the NPT, and now they will have to convince the rest of the NSG not to treat India like a non-nuclear weapon state, but to see the writing on the wall. NSG needs to come out of this make-believe world.

3) Thirdly, it has been agreed that setting up further nuclear reactors under the strategic program is an Indian sovereign decision.

For each and every possible new condition or prescription, India and US have volumes of discussion logs stating why it is not to be encouraged or not possible to accept.

India and USA pretty much have agreed on the Draft of the NSG Waiver and what its final version would look like, but perhaps left some space for NSG countries to add some mild and harmless lines on future Indian behavior as a responsible country with advanced nuclear technology.

[NRao]

What NSG members want out of India or does not want is not an issue or a topic on the table to discuss. They have to either agree or disagree with what the US tables. There could be repercussions for them WRT to that.

Since all the major nuclear states have backed India, it is up to them to see the current order being maintained. India did ask for a NWS status, and, did not get it. However, there is a tacit agreement that India is one, especially after KA mentioned it WRT the NSG and no one has since refuted it.

Perhaps grudgingly the NSG will have to sign on the dotted line.

In all this there is one major point to note. Chicom. She is being, by her own behaviour, being slowly relegated to a second tier. MHO of course.

[Gerard]

NSG can, and most probably will, make it very difficult, if not impossible, for India to construct new nuclear facilities, and maintain the existing ones, in the non-civil sector.

By refusing to sell fuel or equipment for the civil sector? The actual supplier nations in the NSG won't agree to that. Implicit in the waiver is the acceptance of a non-civil sector.

The NSG adopted full scope in 1992. India has built many reactors since then, so it is clear that the NSG cannot prevent India from building new military reactors. India doesn't rely on the NSG to build or maintain its non-safeguarded reactors.

[ShauryaT]

Every noosepaper out of india is repeating the warning about India willing to walk away should NSG not play ball. Two things are happening:
1. GOI is playing Psyops, and
2. Noose papers are reading BRF

Listen to Ramana, this is not just happenstance, its only when you have hit the jackpot in understanding the overall picture and the game in progress, can one say that with confidence. I too am convinced there will be no conditions in the NSG.

I will request Ramana to articulate his thought process in more detail for everyone to clearly understand. For now, we can only go by the bits and pieces, he has mentioned, leading us to think what he might be thinking, always a dangerous game

Anyways, this deal has to be viewed in the context of the geo-political game and it is here that when you pit a KS against a BK or a YS against MMS, that one begins to understand the issues involved. It is in these two types of security and political visions, observers need to build their understanding of the risks and benefits of this deal and answer the question, if the risks are worth the costs that we will pay. (PS: The costs are not just in pure economics).

Example: I would love for Ramana to game a situation, where India needs to get back the POK/NA, and let us assume that we indeed have all the other components of the military ready. The question is how do you get China and the US to back off, without a strong TN based arsernal? Also, assume TSP can be kept under the nuclear threshold.

Another example: Game it, how likely is it that Vietnam will purchase the Brahmos or other military weapons from India, if they do not know that when it really matters to them, like in 1979, India has the wherewithal to resist Chinese pressures and continue supplies. Same for Burma....how do you get the Junta and the elite there to resist China's carrots and sticks and take India's instead.

Another example: Game it, how do we anchor Iran as a permanent assured anchor supplier of hydro-carbons for India's energy needs, which will require resisting US pressures and at the same time boot China out of the game there and get Iran to accept India's carrots and sticks.

This deal will either add points to the game or subtract from it.

The question in all of the above is, how many points does India loose or gain for the lack of a reliable TN arsenal and the gain of entry to nuclear commerce with its costs. The doctrine of MCD, where the focus is on the minimum and not credible and also factor in the size of our fissile material. Then factor in the lack of investment into the Indian Military. Kuldeep Singh Kanwal has a book on the vision for the Indian Army in 2020, how likely is that vision to come true, given that the INC elite is unlikely to invest into this area, in a systemic manner.

There is a tremendous amount of assumption on the side that the world will be all singing the tunes of economic progress and the apple cart WILL not be disturbed. We cannot forsake building critical capability on that assumption. Making that assumption will be a critical mistake.

Ramana can shed some more light. The chances that India will resist the pressures of FMCT and build a large enough fissile material stockpile and validate TN designs by other means are?

[Gerard]

Akula class n-powered sub to be used for crew training