India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

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NRao
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by NRao »

there is no way in hell that any Indian government will dare take on the sort of Indian Muslim electoral backlash that such a deployment would bring on.
The IM was very much in support of a surgical strike just a few weeks ago!

There are other dynamics that should make this possible. The key is a Indian politician with a spine.

However, even the 120K window, I feel, is closing. Ramana had mentioned 90% chances by May 09. He explained the missing 10%, but not the 90. So, i will keep my mind open till then.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Bhaskar »

I don't exactly know if this has been posted or not but...
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/We_a ... 978418.cms
NEW DELHI: Hoping that the nuclear arsenal in Pakistan was as secure as anywhere else in the "civilized world", Army chief Deepak Kapoor said on
Wednesday that India was keeping all its options open in the wake of the November 26 terror attack in Mumbai. ( Watch )

"It must be clearly understood that we are keeping all our options open whether diplomatic, economic or as a last resort, the military one," the Army chief said.

"Some Pakistani troops have come from FATA (Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas bordering Afghanistan) to the Indian border but let me assure you that the Indian Army has factored all this into its plans. It is not a cause for worry," General Kapoor told reporters on the eve of the 61st Army Day on January 15.

He said that Indian military presence in Afghanistan could give it some strategic depth against Pakistan. However, he added that a decision in this regard has to come from the political leadership.

Kapoor said India has been providing "soft assistance" to Afghanistan and any decision regarding policy change has to come from political leaders.

India has time and again ruled out sending troops to Afghanistan to be part of the US-led war on terror but has been providing developmental and medical aid as mandated by the United Nations.

The Army chief said there had been more tension with Pakistan than usual after the Mumbai attack.

Meanwhile, Times Now reports that India is going to approach the United Nations security council asking it to list Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar under Resolution 1267. The listing will make it difficult for Pakistan to duck the issue. ( Watch )

Under the resolution, the UN established a sanctions regime to cover individuals and entities associated with al-Qaida, Osama bin Laden and the Taliban wherever they are located. The regime has since been reaffirmed and modified by a dozen more UN security council resolutions. Since the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the sanctions have been applied to individuals and organizations in all parts of the world.
I think the Army chief wants troops to go to Afghanistan, but the decision did not come from the political leadership...
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by kasthuri »

Interesting to note that Russia is now keen in getting into Afghanistan.

Russia ready to cooperate with Obama on Afghanistan
Russia ready to cooperate with Obama on Afghanistan

3 hours ago

TASHKENT (AFP) — Russia is ready to cooperate with new US President Barack Obama on Afghanistan, President Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday as he visited Moscow's Central Asian ally Uzbekistan.

"We are ready to cooperate on this issue practically with all the countries, including the United States," he said in Tashkent, following talks with his Uzbek counterpart Islam Karimov.

"Let's hope the new US administration will be more successful than the previous one as far as Afghanistan-related issues are concerned," he added.

Karimov, for his part, welcomed a decision by the new US administration to focus its efforts on Afghanistan but said real improvements were needed in the near future.

"We will see the results only when they will become tangible," he said, adding that countries like India, China, Iran and Pakistan could join international efforts on Afghanistan.

"One needs to understand that the longer foreign forces are on the country's territory, the more occupational character they acquire," Karimov added.

Medvedev's two-day visit to Uzbekistan, which borders Afghanistan, follows a trip to the region by US army general David Petraeus. Russia and the US are competing for influence in the resource-rich region.

"Russia is the country which has always been present in this region, the country which has determined the policy here and the alignment of forces," Karimov told Medvedev at the start of the talks.

Medvedev's first trip as president was to Kazakhstan in May, and he since also visited Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

"The interests of a lot of great nations are meeting here, (and) contradictions and conflicts are meeting here," Karimov said.

At the start of the decade, relations between Uzbekistan and the West had shown signs of improvement, a development that caused alarm in Moscow.

But that changed after an armed uprising in the eastern town of Andijan in 2005 where the government's actions were bitterly criticised by Europe and the United States.

Uzbekistan retaliated by evicting a US air base that had been set up near the Afghan border following the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington.

Tashkent has recently been sending signals that it is open to new alliances prompting new fears in Russia that Uzbekistan seeks to align itself with the West.

Medvedev and Karimov hailed the state of bilateral ties during the visit, which focused on developing economic and in particular energy relations as well as security cooperation.

"Even if no practical agreements were reached it does not mean the visit was empty," said Zurab Todua, a senior analyst with the Institute of Religion and Politics.

"The visit is important from the political point of view" and was designed to show that for Tashkent the "Russian vector was one of the most important ones."

The chief of Russian gas giant Gazprom Alexei Miller said in Tashkent the two countries might build new natural gas pipelines that would run parallel to the existing ones.

"We have agreed on a feasibility study on new gas pipeline capacities that will run parallel to the existing" facilities, Miller told reporters. Gazprom will buy more than 15 billion cubic meters of gas from Uzbekistan this year, he added.

As well as being is a significant regional gas exporter, Uzbekistan is a key transit country for the pumping of gas from Turkmenistan to Russia.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by ramana »

Editorial, Pioneer, 24 Jan., 2009
A strategic highway

The Pioneer Edit Desk

India opens Afghan-Iran route

On the face of it, the 215 km Delaram-Zaranj highway, which was inaugurated on Thursday, is no more than a drop in the ocean if seen in the context of the gargantuan task of rebuilding war-ravaged Afghanistan which continues to bleed on account of Taliban and Al Qaeda outrages. But the importance of this highway cannot be minimised, not least because it has been built by Indian engineers and workers against heavy odds and despite jihadi depredations encouraged by Pakistan. Apart from six Indians, including four ITBP personnel, who died while the highway was being built, as many as 129 Afghans were killed for either working on the project or supporting it. The Delaram-Zaranj highway will provide landlocked Afghanistan access to Iran as well as Iranian ports, thus opening up an alternative route for the passage of goods which, till now, had to be routed through Pakistan. The absolute control over transit routes gave Islamabad a huge strategic advantage, which it exploited to the hilt to coerce Kabul into toeing its line. Had President Hamid Karzai not been so adamant about keeping the Taliban at bay, he would have given in to Pakistani arm-twisting. To his credit, he chose to bide his time and with the new highway becoming functional, he can tell Pakistan to go take a walk. Iran, never too comfortable about Pakistan’s efforts to regain ‘strategic depth’ with the help of the Taliban and Al Qaeda, can now be expected to play an active role in fobbing off Osama bin Laden’s mullah brigade, at least in the north. And, once the highway becomes fully operational, donor countries will not have to route their aid material through Pakistani ports, which by itself will come as a big dampener. India, for instance, has long sought transit access to Afghanistan via Pakistan, but expectedly has been denied permission. New Delhi won’t have to petition Islamabad any more, provided, of course, Iran plays fair and square. It is, therefore, not surprising that Pakistan should have exerted itself to scuttle the Delaram-Zaranj highway by unleashing the full fury of the Taliban on the Rs 600-crore project.

Apart from its strategic importance, the highway also stands out as a shining example of India’s sincere reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee was not indulging in hyperbole when he described it as a ‘symbol’ of India-Afghanistan cooperation. Unlike Pakistan, which is bent upon restoring the barbaric rule of Islamist thugocracy in Afghanistan to regain the ‘strategic depth’ it lost after the Taliban were chased out in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, India has been quietly working towards making its presence felt, as it should, through humanitarian aid and infrastructure-building. Mr Karzai has responded by promising, “This cooperation will not stop.” Unless the Obama Administration, desperate to cut a deal with Pakistan, decrees otherwise.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by pgbhat »

not to deviate the discussion too much.......
I couldnt find photos of Chahbahar port posted by anybody
Little bit of googling I came up with this
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Arun_S »

Zee News reports : Civil Aviation ministry has given instructions to all civil airlines that in case of emergency, terror attack or to provide security to citizens the airlines have to mandatorly make their planes (with crew) available to the government.

The order to requisitioned the civil aircraft s can be issued by and officer of the rank of Joint Secretary or above.

Wheels are turning.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by ShauryaT »

Many posters here have expressed the view, in one way or the other that, in a scenario of Indian troops in Afghanistan, India should shy away from the Pashtun dominated areas and instead focus on the traditional NA areas.

Some questions:

- Will this approach not endear the Pashtuns to the TSP. A result that we seek to avoid?
- Will this approach not make the IA, the target of the Pashtuns and Taleban? With the type of terrain and the Pashtuns being the largest group in Afghanistan, how will this sectarian approach help the goal of a United, non-radical, peaceful, etc, etc Afghanistan?
- How will alienating the Pashtuns serve Indian interests? How will it help our eventual goal of getting to the Northern Areas, a goal that would be easier, if the Pashtuns can be won over.

India has a unique opportunity to play a role in the region. India should not make the same mistake the Russians did or the Americans are doing. The mosaic of Afghanistan cannot be captured or won through military power alone and the people cannot be won over by outsiders. India can play the role of an insider like no other nation can.

The god forsaken places beyond the Indus are tribal but there is a way to win over these tribes. In order to do this, job number one will be to isolate and limit the influences of the TSP. This will require working with the Pashtuns, not against them.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by chandrabhan »

ShauryaT wrote:Many posters here have expressed the view, in one way or the other that, in a scenario of Indian troops in Afghanistan, India should shy away from the Pashtun dominated areas and instead focus on the traditional NA areas.

Some questions:.............. if the Pashtuns can be won over.

India has a unique opportunity to play a role in the region. India should not make the same mistake the Russians did or the Americans are doing. The mosaic of Afghanistan cannot be captured or won through military power alone and the people cannot be won over by outsiders. India can play the role of an insider like no other nation can.

The god forsaken places beyond the Indus are tribal but there is a way to win over these tribes. In order to do this, job number one will be to isolate and limit the influences of the TSP. This will require working with the Pashtuns, not against them.
Yup Pashtuns can be won over, However there is only one way as of now. The way of Ranjit singh's General. an American named gerard(Hope i am getting the right name) - As soon as you get up in the morning send a platoon of soldiers to capture first 5 men they see on the road. Get them to the fort and just throw them from the balcony screaming. Rest of the day will be peaceful.
Repeat the procedure every single day like the doctor prescribed. Punish the whole tribe for any misdemeanor or petty crime. Confiscate all the weapons or make them face the 'Gerard music,
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by ShauryaT »

chandrabhan wrote:Yup Pashtuns can be won over, However there is only one way as of now.
If you think, that is all that Maharaja Ranjit Singh did then you are wrong. Do this often enough, and you can guarantee a rebellion, no one can control. Even your own dog, will bite at you, if you corner it and leave it no choice.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by chandrabhan »

ShauryaT,
Please don't jump to conclusions. I am not saying that this is only what Maharaja Ranjit singh. What I am saying is that Terror can only be met with greater terror. for any mistake retribution has to be swift and noteworthy.

I do know few of the many things Ranjit singhji did.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by RayC »

Old adage - to defeat a guerilla, be a guerilla.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by asprinzl »

In my observation the Pashtoons are more tribal/barbaric than the other ethnic groups in a-stan. May be the Hazaras come a distant second.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Guddu »

Something may be cooking...
1. Note that Pak recently gave a blank cheque to China, wrt to dealing with India. This means that Obama has said he wants results and is not going to pay big bucks without seing results. Pak is obviously unwilling/unable to provide those results. They are sulking by going to China. Pak knew this was coming...to mitigate it they gave two high civilian awards to Biden and Boucher...
2. This current report from Strat, suggests an India-US tag team...what is not indicated is, will India press from the east or the west of Pak.

"1. Obama and Russia: U.S. President Barack Obama has been in office for essentially a week, and aside from some really interesting Obamemorabilia getting sold, not much has changed. Not that we were really expecting much. Obama himself is working to play down the messianic properties that others have credited him with. In the second week of his presidency, we expect two topics to get most of the attention. First, Obama has made it clear he wants to turn up the pressure on Pakistan to do more in the Afghan war. To do this, his team is attempting to forge a supplementary supply route to NATO forces in Afghanistan that does not require relying on Pakistan. The theory is that this will allow a U.S.-Indian tag team to force Pakistan to finally pursue militant Islamists striking Afghanistan from Pakistani territory. But all of those supplementary routes transit Central Asia, a region where Russia is king. Obama is going to have to have a talk — or a showdown — with the Russians. Soon. And next week there is a perfect opportunity. Jan. 26 is the first Russia-NATO Council meeting since the August 2008 Russia-Georgia war — though the U.S. is sending representatives below principal level (while the Russians want to meet at the principal level). ".

3. This would also support GOI's previous hawkish stance, they were likely asked to hold back until the US gets an alternate route for supplies to Pak. With the completion of the Afghan-Iran highway, India will have a means to provide supplies for its forces. The US will get a route through ex Russian republics. If my assumption is correct, there will be a gradual build up of a "coalition" against the Pukes, until the problem is solved. If Obama wants to be elected a second term, he needs to get Osama and solve the AQ problem in Pak. Obama has said so pre-election and he has a mandate for it. Obama has also said (in an interview with O'Reilly on Fox) that he is not willing to supply jets etc which will be used against India, only weapons that will be used against the AQ types.

4. The US envoy to the region has not talked about Kashmir, again the only reason to not do that is if the US and India are planning to work together, i.e. dehyphenate India and Pak from the equal-equal process.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Kanson »

bhaskarIN wrote:
He said that Indian military presence in Afghanistan could give it some strategic depth against Pakistan. However, he added that a decision in this regard has to come from the political leadership.

Kapoor said India has been providing "soft assistance" to Afghanistan and any decision regarding policy change has to come from political leaders.
I think the Army chief wants troops to go to Afghanistan, but the decision did not come from the political leadership...
It could also mean that only the political nod is pending for beginning the operation.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Kanson »

Rudradev wrote: You may say that I’m being optimistic when I state that Obama is more likely to try and achieve that control, than to run away and leave Afghanistan to the Talibs. However, I only say this because he has no choice. If he leaves Afghanistan to degenerate into what it was between 1990-2001, then sooner or later he will lose an American city to a WMD attack. It is not a risk he can afford to take.
Rudradev wrote:
Hoping for side benefits from any Obama action is not cool. We need to act decisively and force the hands of *all* the players, rather than other way. I am sure we will not have an easy time in landing boots and Kipling-afficianados like Biden/Zinni/Holbrooke/Zbignew/xyz will step in for their favorite service providers, the high spending jernails.
There will be no Indian troop deployment in Afghanistan. If such a thing is being suggested by our MEA, that’s because the suggestion itself is a posture geared towards the achievement of political goals, just as Parakram was. Forget the Afghan hostility that such a move will garner… there is no way in hell that any Indian government will dare take on the sort of Indian Muslim electoral backlash that such a deployment would bring on. Ain’t gonna happen. Kaam khatam.

Besides all of this, I’ve gone into some detail earlier on this thread about how absurd the notion of supplying Indian troops in Afghanistan would be… when the Americans are having a hell of a time finding non-Pakistani routes to supply their own forces there.

I’m tired of pointing out the more obvious reasons why this is an unworkable idea, though, so I’ll stop here.
Sir, the risk of WMD burst in cities is not only to US. India is in much grave threat. The day is not far ahead when we suddenly woke up to glaring headlines of IB issuing notice of possible WMD attack. As a precursor, Army Chief already stated about threat of dirty bombs to India, recently. Without intelligence report, i hope, they would not have said that.

If US is acting to stop the WMD attack, why should India sit aside and watch when the threat to India is much more higher ?
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by NRao »

Besides all of this, I’ve gone into some detail earlier on this thread about how absurd the notion of supplying Indian troops in Afghanistan would be… when the Americans are having a hell of a time finding non-Pakistani routes to supply their own forces there.
True. ONLY until the US is willing to pay the asking price (from Russia, etc).

Note that as the US' thinking has come closer to that of Indians, so have the solutions: the latest - Iran as a route into A'stan. But here too both the US AND India have to pay a price, until then Iran cannot be part of the solution.

I think the issues can be overcome. The menace is far too bigger than the price at this point in time.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Rudradev »

Kanson wrote: Sir, the risk of WMD burst in cities is not only to US. India is in much grave threat. The day is not far ahead when we suddenly woke up to glaring headlines of IB issuing notice of possible WMD attack. As a precursor, Army Chief already stated about threat of dirty bombs to India, recently. Without intelligence report, i hope, they would not have said that.

If US is acting to stop the WMD attack, why should India sit aside and watch when the threat to India is much more higher ?
Sir, can you point out where in my posts I have suggested that India should
sit aside and watch
?

There are many things India can do to defend herself, other than sending Indian troops to fight America's war while being entirely dependent on the simultaneous good graces of the US, Iran, Israel and Russia to supply them.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Sanjay M »

I totally disagree with the idea of Indians charging head-on into Pashtun lands with over-inflated confidence about "winning over" the Pashtuns in one gulp.

Hell, didn't Nehru also ambitiously rush to campaign in the Pashtun areas during the run-up to Partition, overconfidently thinking he could easily win them over? Silly. They are a proud and independent people, and for the past half-century they've also been kept backward and subjected to heavy doses of Islamist propaganda.

To achieve the goals, things have to be divided into manageable steps/gulps.

Firstly, it's necessary to split off the non-Pashtuns of Northern Afghanistan from the Pashtuns in the South. That's a reasonably achievable goal, once the figurehead govt of Karzai is marginalized, as the fed-up Americans seem to be leaning towards doing. After all, Afghanistan is itself an artificial state which has only existed since British colonial times.

Next, with the Pashtuns of Southern Afghanistan left estranged and forlorn from the North, then it will only increase their sense of Pashtun identity and heighten their cross-border ties with Pashtuns in Afghanistan. As a border goes up in the North, then one will likewise fall in the South (the Durand Line). And similarly, a border would rise between NWFP/Pakhtunwa and Punjab.

So the key is to not bite off more than one can chew, but to break the overall task into manageable chunks.

(Between Baluchis and Pakthuns though, I'm not sure who should get Quetta, since it seems to have been historically Baloch, but in recent decades it's been demographically taken over by Pashtun migrants. I suppose it should go to the Pashtuns.)
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by ramana »

The Indian troop presence in Afghanistan is a hedge to WMD in Indian cities. Right now the Pakis think they are under threat from only once side. With a sizeable contingent in Afghanistan they will be under threat on both borders.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by ShauryaT »

ramana wrote:The Indian troop presence in Afghanistan is a hedge to WMD in Indian cities. Right now the Pakis think they are under threat from only once side. With a sizeable contingent in Afghanistan they will be under threat on both borders.
That is the key thing to understand. A military role for India in Afghanistan is an offensive move against Pakistan, with whom, we have been fighting a covert war for 25+ years now. If we have to shed Indian blood, might well as do it, being on the offensive.

Boots on the ground in Afghanistan, is a chance to change the geo-politcal equations in the region. What will the rentable value of TSP be, if the IA has boots on the ground in Afghanistan?

What exactly is our next best option to be on the offensive? Roll our 3000 tanks onto the plains of the Pakjab? and then what?

There is another benefit, I am very excited about. India needs an oil rich state, that is dependent on Indian security. Iran is exciting in so many ways.

India's strategic goal, for now, has to be to reduce the geo-strategic value of TSP and not its dissolution as a state. Once, this is accomplished the problem of TSP, goes down to the level of BD. Afghanistan is the first shot.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Bhaskar »

It could also mean that only the political nod is pending for beginning the operation.
I feel, after looking at a few articles and how Deepak Kapoor (Indian army cheif) wants troops to go to Afghanistan and Check Pak from their Western Border but he keeps pointing out that it's a political decision and the government can only decide whether to go or not which "hints" in a way of the unwillingness of our government to take any decision against Pakistan.
Even when asked if India is ready for any eventuallity against Pakistan, Deepak Kapoor even said that "going into a war is a political decision and we are ready and are in full preparedness. But no orders came from the GOI" even hinting that our Armed forces were ready, but our Government decided not to take any military option.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by ramana »

Good elaboration ShauryaT. It was always understood in the background that there is a strategic purpose to the troops deployment and not flag planting. As a corrollary token troop numbers wont be enough. if tis small number say three brigades then they need offensive air power. If its larger say 100,000 spread all over then it can be traded. But its Raksha Mantri's staff that will do the trades.

Maybe can start small to firm up the non-Pashtun (Hazara, Tajik, uzbeg aka Northern Alliance) areas and then the Durrani areas. The Ghilzais can be latter. Meantime full training of the Afghan military can be aided.

Can some one map the tribal locations in the Pashtun areas.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by John Snow »

Here it is ramana garu
Image
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by p_saggu »

A significant deployment will have to happen in the south to protect the land route. This is where the pakistanis have targetted their main taliban forces recently in an attempt to prevent / delay the Zaranj-Delaram highway.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by ShauryaT »

Two potential areas to start with. South of 32nd and North of 36th parallel, are potential start areas. Russia will be far more comfortable, having India at the CA gates than US/NATO. Ditto with Iran.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Bhaskar »

ShauryaT wrote:Two potential areas to start with. South of 32nd and North of 36th parallel, are potential start areas. Russia will be far more comfortable, having India at the CA gates than US/NATO. Ditto with Iran.
Very true Shaurya, If India deploys troops, countries such as Iran and Russia will be more cooperative...
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by kasthuri »

bhaskarIN wrote:Very true Shaurya, If India deploys troops, countries such as Iran and Russia will be more cooperative...
The problem would only be with the US. Even if it gives conditional aid to TSP, it means it wants TSP to co-operate. And TSP won't do that with India encircling. With US wanting to alleviate the fears of TSP, it will be very hard to convince the Uncle, I guess.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by ShauryaT »

kasthuri wrote:
bhaskarIN wrote:Very true Shaurya, If India deploys troops, countries such as Iran and Russia will be more cooperative...
The problem would only be with the US. Even if it gives conditional aid to TSP, it means it wants TSP to co-operate. And TSP won't do that with India encircling. With US wanting to alleviate the fears of TSP, it will be very hard to convince the Uncle, I guess.
Beggars are not choosers.
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Kanson »

Rudradev wrote:
Sir, can you point out where in my posts I have suggested that India should
sit aside and watch
?

There are many things India can do to defend herself, other than sending Indian troops to fight America's war while being entirely dependent on the simultaneous good graces of the US, Iran, Israel and Russia to supply them.
May I know, where did anyone said of sending Indian troops to fight America's war ?
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by p_saggu »

There will have to be a process of soothing Iran alongwith this. They are much miffed at two of our actions.
1. The IAEA vote against them
2. ISRO launching Israel's TecSAR which was stated to be directly aimed at Iran.
Their response was derailing the IPI pipeline altogether and bringing in unreasonable conditions.

The highway itself has been the focus of severe and sustained attacks by the Taliban, who have gone to the extent of blowing up bridges and moving in and out to control large sections of the highway and the Afghan Ring Road. A major force presence will have its job cut out to just protecting this road and maintaining supply lines. This in itself will be a very significant and tiring task - much more difficult than anything we've done before - more akin to maintaining our forces in Siachen. Very expensive in terms of forces and finances.

The huge positives out of this is our strategic reach into CAS for trade, and a means to balance out any chinese influence there.

The chinese attempt to resurrect a Gawadar is perhaps going to be a non starter because of the insurgency in Balochistan which is gradually becoming a full fledged sepratist movement from pakistan. All the shades of another Bangladesh are already there - soon the time will come to give it a decisive push.

The pakistanis have invested in Gawadar hoping to link this port along with the Karakoram Highway to China's western provinces and Tibet. I hope they've looked at the map before they went into this wet dream. > 90 % of china's population and >95 % of china's Industrial might lies in the east. This huge western and central china is a frozen desert wasteland, very very thinly populated with no industries to speak of. This is where Musharraf had his pipe dreams of building an oil pipeline across the himalayas ! To supply whom? Yaks?
Pakistan currently can't even go it alone in any iranian or CAS pipeline because it lacks the funds to build one and then will not be able to consume enough oil from any such pipeline to make it viable.

Sorry - steadily going off topic.
JMTs
Bhaskar
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Bhaskar »

kasthuri wrote:
bhaskarIN wrote:Very true Shaurya, If India deploys troops, countries such as Iran and Russia will be more cooperative...
The problem would only be with the US. Even if it gives conditional aid to TSP, it means it wants TSP to co-operate. And TSP won't do that with India encircling. With US wanting to alleviate the fears of TSP, it will be very hard to convince the Uncle, I guess.
US doesn't need TSP... I'll say what Shaurya said .. "Beggars are not choosers"

And to people who are saying Afghanistan is "America's War", let me remind you, the day Pakistani Taliban gets their hands on WMD from Pakistan, their first nukes are heading towards us...
We need to lock Pakista with both the Western and the Eastern borders, witnessing the close ties India and US will have and sensing that the aid Pakistan gets might be no more... Pakistan then, will do what it is supposed to...
RajeshA
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by RajeshA »

Sanjay M wrote:Firstly, it's necessary to split off the non-Pashtuns of Northern Afghanistan from the Pashtuns in the South.

Next, with the Pashtuns of Southern Afghanistan left estranged and forlorn from the North, then it will only increase their sense of Pashtun identity and heighten their cross-border ties with Pashtuns in Afghanistan. As a border goes up in the North, then one will likewise fall in the South (the Durand Line). And similarly, a border would rise between NWFP/Pakhtunwa and Punjab.

(Between Baluchis and Pakthuns though, I'm not sure who should get Quetta, since it seems to have been historically Baloch, but in recent decades it's been demographically taken over by Pashtun migrants. I suppose it should go to the Pashtuns.)
Sanjay M,
I have been peddling this plan on BRF for quite some time now, and am glad, as would be natural to assume, that it finds conviction amongst other BRFites also.

I also foresee that Baluchistan would/should become another state of India. Baluchis are a proud people and they have been wronged their whole lives. Their land is divided between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. There is no way that the Baluchis would be left alone by the Iranians, Pushtun/Taliban and the Pakjabis, and they know their predicament. India can be their only chance of some autonomy and non-meddling. Besides Baluchistan needs an existing stable democratic model and setup from the word go. They can't wait another 60 years for one to evolve.

As far as Quetta is concerned, I think, it should be taken over by Indian and Baluchi forces so that we have something to trade. Then if and when we reach a modus vivendi with the Pushtuns, Quetta should be declared a Union Territory of India, separate from Baluchistan, which would become a open city for trade, culture, and interaction. Pushtun would be free to move in and out of Quetta, without any visa, but after screening. They will be allowed to own property there. This is important, so that Indians, Baluchis (or would-be Indians) and Pushtuns can interact regularly, so that Pushtunistan does not become a complete quarantine. In cities like Quetta, Indians would be able to gather intelligence on events and personalities in Pushtun lands.

I am in favor of having a host of such cities on the periphery of Pushtunistan, but in the hands of Indians or Indian-allied states (North Afghanistan, Pakjab) where the Pushtuns should be free to come and go and trade: cities like Quetta, Dera Ismail Khan, Kabul, etc.

Baluchistan should get another capital-city, other than Quetta. Rest of India hopefully would support the building of this alternative capital-city.
Anabhaya
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Anabhaya »

Actually, guys, I think I deserve to be the PM of India. :((
kasthuri
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by kasthuri »

Anabhaya wrote:Actually, guys, I think I deserve to be the PM of India. :((
Well, the election is not too far...:-) (oh and btw the prime minister is sick)
Arun_S
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Arun_S »

kasthuri wrote:
Anabhaya wrote:Actually, guys, I think I deserve to be the PM of India. :((
Well, the election is not too far...:-) (oh and btw the prime minister is sick)
Recall how in Delhi Sultanat (Mughal and pre-Mughal period) able bodied Turkmainsitanis will castrate themselves to be at pleasure of King to serve the Haram.

As Man Mohan Singh has shown the NEW way, to be Prime Minister of India one need not fight election in any constituency .... just become a lackey for a party president. He thus buried for good the old Hindi adage "Ek Myan Main Dou Talwar Naih Rah Sakti" (A sheath cant hold two swords). The Premiership is with MMS and the real Premiership is with Madam; obfuscated real PM and proxy PM.

Other than that my donkey also wants to be prime minister, but he does not have "Chatra Chaya" of King / Singh (sic) maker.
RayC
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by RayC »

John Snow wrote:Here it is ramana garu
Image
Nice map.
Arun_S
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Arun_S »

Hindu: Government can requisition any aircraft
Vinay Kumar

NEW DELHI: In a bid to cater to emergency situations, the government can now ask airlines, including private ones, to place one or more aircraft at its disposal on an immediate basis in the interest of public safety.

The move comes in the wake of situations, including the sudden requirement of sending National Security Guard (NSG) commandos to a certain place to meet exigencies like the Mumbai terror attacks.

Under a notification issued by the Civil Aviation Ministry, an authorised officer, not below the rank of Joint Secretary in the Civil Aviation Ministry or in the Home Ministry, can request one or more aircraft from any specified operator for the government “in the interest of public safety,” an official spokesperson said.

It would be mandatory for an operator to provide an aircraft with crew, maintenance personnel and all material necessary for the operation of the plane for public service purposes, he said. As per the notification, the government would pay for the expenses incurred in the operation to the operator in accordance with the Aircraft Act, 1934.
NRao
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by NRao »

Sorry. Just PC.
"Ek Myan Main Dou Talwar Naih Rah Sakti" (A seath can hold two swords)
Should be:

"A sheath canNOT hold two swords"

Back to the thread.
Arun_S
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by Arun_S »

NRao wrote:Sorry. Just PC.
"Ek Myan Main Dou Talwar Naih Rah Sakti" (A seath can hold two swords)
Should be:

"A sheath canNOT hold two swords"

Back to the thread.
Thanks for point out error it should indeed read as: "A sheath can't hold two swords"
John Snow
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Re: India to consider sending 120,000 troops to Afghanistan

Post by John Snow »

Iran and KSA have to be inducted directly into Afghanistan war Iran on the side of Afghans and KSA on the side of Pakistan to benefit world economy and destruction of evil.
Locked