KLNMurthy wrote:Your frustration with the Indian rulership is widely shared and merits discussion elsewhere. But in this context, shiv is on the right track and I am afraid you are missing the point.
Without US support, Pakistan would be like Voldemort without the body, a pathetic and harmless if malevolent creature. All of Indians' character defects would not matter in this context--TSP would simply be the cancerous gene that never has the conditions to express itself.
KLN, you are sadly mistaken here. Even if the US was NOT there, Pakistan would still be cancerous and an existential threat to India. The Americans did not give them the N capability or delivery capabilities. A handful of F-16s are pyrrhic at best versus the missiles they built up DESPITE being broke.
Do take a look at Ajai Shuklas travelogue as well. Pakistan is not as broke as it appears to be either, since its local economy is still existent, albeit low tech. The average Pakistani Pakjabi just wont pay taxes, and the Pakistani Govt does not have a salaried middle class to thrive off of.
Point is, you folks have somehow managed to think of the US as being the driving force behind Pakistan being an severe challenge to India, it is not so. Small nations, when run by despotic apparatus can end up being highly militarized.
Like it or not, the Americans think twice when it comes to picking a fight with the NoKo's and this despite the fact the NoKos don't even have a fraction of the Chinese support the Pakistanis have!
In the 60's, Israel was all alone. Expats brought in everything from lathes, to scrap metal and the rag tag Israeli army was enough to hold off much better armed and equipped Arab units, drilled per the best British traditions!
The Pakistanis would be MUCH weaker if not for the Americans, but they would remain vipers, and very dangerous at that!!
The Chinese, as one sage put it, are willing to fight India down to the last Pakistani. That means, Pakistan will continue to get transfers of select systems to offset Indian conventional superiority and when that fails, it will get nuclear technology! As the balance of conventional forces tips towards India, the latter will predominate!
The only solution for India is to actively seek its own path, by aggressively modernizing and building up in return. Right now, our solution is a) ad hoc modernization - take a look at the Army shortfalls versus the plans f.e., clearly a political angle exists with regards to the INC go slow on Cold Start b) pappi-jhappi c) run to the US to keep Pakistan in line
Its a disaster.
To my unserstanding, Shiv asserted a clear intent of wanting to remove US support to Pakistan, with no regard whatsoever for India having to jump through any hoops a priori, in terms of correcting its own character defects, which may well include dhimmitude or servility. The Russians, Mongolians, Klingons and whoever can simply go to hell if they mock us for being servile to pakis while demanding that they--klingons et al--stop strengthening the pakis.
The point is that no matter what India wants or does not want, Pakistan will ALWAYS have a sugar daddy! Where is the realization that India has to fight its battles and cannot keep requesting the sugar daddies to cease and desist! And when they don't, label folks as A rakshaks or so forth, when they exhibit frustration at the sheer venal manner in which the GOI is callously ignoring its responsibilities and running to that very same sugar daddy to save its skin! This is what is ironic! If GOI did its job in even a tenth of a serious fashion, all this talk of the US would be irrelevant!
The US gave the Pakistanis a few Harpoons. One way or the other India needed hard kill countermeasures - even the Chinese have CJ-8XX a plenty. So we bought the Barak-1. Now we need more, and guess what Saint AK has sat on the purchase citing ongoing investigations. So tell me, tomorrow, in a shooting war, if a subsonic missile is headed our way, what do we do a) Ak phyrr - outrage if its a Harpoon or b ) ok, if its CJ-XX.
Point is its our own incompetence which puts us at risk!!
At Kargil - MiG-21s flew without chaff & flares. Procurements were held up because MOD did not sanction them. So when MiGs were targeted by Anzas and Stingers, does it make sense to have outrage when the missile was a Stinger, and sleep otherwise if it was an Anza?
Who was to blame for the state of affairs?
Seriously, some of the stuff talked here is from an alternate dimension! Do you think the guys who fought the NSG in 26/11 had Colt M-4s? They had Chinese gear & scratchbuilt Pakistani copies. Still sufficient to hurt our guys in CQB. Where were the NSGs through the wall imaging radars (available OTS), hands free comms (do read up sometime on how Sandeep Unnithan died) and even impact resistant glasses (yes, Maj Singh who lost his eyesight during that op didn't even have those!). That's GOI!
I am afraid, a lot of you gentlemen look at India through very rose tinted glasses. Please live in India. See the rampant corruption & c*rap the GOI does, despite ample support from the public - and then consider whether the rope given to them is enough. All this stuff about "rakshak" is all very well, I am afraid - but it only lasts to an age! Unfortunately, I am too old to not call a spade a spade now.
Yes, the US has given the Pakistanis a LOT. It has effectively rearmed them to tier-1 standards over the past decade, but even it hadnt, the Pakistanis would still find a way. They are a militarized state & would compensate. The RAAD - is apparently a South African MUPSOW modified to local requirements. Can be fitted with Nukes in all probabibility (latter tech from China). So the threat would remain.
The solution for this is not to sit and gripe about the US or China. But to serve notice on the venal GOI that Indian security is GOIs responsibility for which it bears full responsibility, as versus buck passing, corruption, delays and sending dossiers!! I am no fan of the Chinese Govt & their MIC, its hamfisted, wasteful & corrupt. But guess what, they are designing their forces to face off against the US. You know the side effect? They can actually face India as well. Here in India, the GOI is unable to decide whether to even raise a force to defend India against the Chinese!
Now try & understand my point! Its NOT about the US or China! Its India which has been always reactive, unable to define what its core interests are, and then reacts with angst when others come & make hay.
What prevented India from attempting to sabotage the Pakistani nuke program & preventing it from expanding? Nothing - analysis paralysis. End result, even if China had transferred a few, they would never have been at the scale Pakistan has today or is developing. You know how India decided to weaponize? His highness RG visits an IAF firepower demo in the 1980s (note China had nukes for decades by then) and decides, ok and everyone scrambles to comply. This is the sum total of our strategic experts, some of whom are deified on this forum as Bhishmas and what not. Point is the standards have been so low, that even the mediocre shine! Harsh words, but the truth. The great hawk Shri Karnad would have been considered a centrist (or slightly touched) in other places. He wanted to disband the Indian strike corps (perhaps our one remaining negotiating chip against Pakistan in the conventional space!). Such is the state of affairs.
If we had been halfway as organized as we should have been, we would have so many centers of influence that it would be the US begging us to work with them to contain the Pakistanis and offer them a face saving exit from Afghanistan. Instead, it is we who run to the Americans (the guys who couldnt even tell Mush was lying) to help us out..
Think about it. Can there be a more liberated declaration of intent to look out for India with no ifs or buts?
Please think about what I wrote. Consider where we are today, and whether it is even a fraction of where we should be. A few thousand Harris radio sets from the US, a few squadrons of F-16s, a dilapidated OHP are peanuts versus what we can do - but we havent. Why? The answer is clear. The money is being siphoned off to line nest eggs in the tens of thousands of crores.
Do you love India like you love your mother? If so, wouldn't you make it an absolute commitment to defang outside attackers by hook or crook, even if, so to speak, your mother somehow presented a vulnerable face, or your siblings were facilitating the attacker?
Y'know what - I am an adult. My mother would be one too. If my mother chooses to deliberately facilitate outside attackers or let conditions be so that outside attackers can easily enter the family premises (despite there being options to contain the attackers outside), then its high time somebody explained the facts of life to my mother.
A civilization or a nation state which decides to abrogate the right of self defence, whose elite become so corrupt so as to ignore all & every threat to the nation, and the rest of the nation lets that happen - well that nation will suffer. That is what is happening now.
It may be quixotic in the real world, but everything starts with intent. Even in the real world, see how S. Korea is servile to the North but has no problem checking it militarily plus expecting the US to participate in its defense. So, the contradiction matters only if you think it should matter.
South Korea is a client state of the US. Are we a client state of the US? If so, let us be open about it & be done with it. Including offering our population as harvest for the missionaries (not that we havent already done a fair bit there as well).
And may I suggest that South Korea has fared far better with even the loonies from the North than we have? Sure - no devastating war to kick it off, but we had partition. Thereafter, apart from their military taking a few hits now and then, their population has suffered nowhere near the sustained terror campaign that we have.
There is something called the idea of a nation state. People believe in it, because they believe it will protect them. India is thoroughly failing on that front. Emotional ties apart (motherland etc), frank fact of life is the GOI has chosen to abdicate its responsibilities, because a significant chunk of what constitute GOI -politicians-bureucrats - are venal, self centered and thoroughly corrupt. Money making & elections (to make more money) matter. That is NOT how a nation works, and this is NOT something we can blame any other nation for