nukavarapu wrote:arshyam wrote: b) the problem is running all sorts of trains on the same set of tracks, so the average speed is dictated by the slowest train on the line, which invariably is a goods train.
I beg to differ here, as this will be taken care once the DFC is commissioned. Was not the whole purpose of DFC to take away the goods trains from regular trunk routes? I will not say thats true for the whole country but the Mumbai-Ahmedabad route, is it not falling under the Mumbai-Delhi economic corridor for which the western DFC is being built? Why would the goods trains take the regular routes once the western DFC is commissioned. Did I understand something wrong here?
No doubt. The DFC will reduce the traffic on the mainline, though I don't think it will be 100% reduced. Maybe vsunder saar might know as he is tracking it more closely. But once the extra capacity is realised, what next? How much extra capacity will the tracks have, and how much of it can be utilised? What I mean is, let's say goods trains on DFC reduces the demand on the mainline by 50%. Given that this line already has 120%+ (ref Singha's graphic above), the DFC will reduce it only to 70% or so. Still quite high, keeping future growth in mind.
Now, can all of the extra capacity be used to run trains only to Ahmedabad? Please keep in mind that this is the trunk route to Delhi with enormous demand in its own right, and the DFC does not exactly parallel the line beyond Vadodara. So there will still be freight traffic on the mainline beyond Vadodara (Indore, etc.). And after adding these trains, how much capacity will remain for future growth? I don't have the data to answer these questions myself, but these are factors that must be considered.
Quad tracking will definitely help, but going by the
current demand for local trains beyond Virar (Dahanu Road), and the commuter traffic to/from Surat, those trains will also need to be augmented. And with better connectivity and high costs in Mumbai, more people will move to these far away places, generating even more demand for local trains. Point is, quad tracks will only go so far. They are needed to solve
today's problems, and long term will not be sufficient. Think in terms of the Churchgate-Virar section - 20 years ago, who would have thought some sections will need 6 lines and still not be enough? Or locals running from Churchgate to Dahanu Road?
Then, let's consider the quality of service. People commuting to work on these routes are packed in like sardines. Simply due to a lack of sufficient trains which will enable them to have a decently comfortable journey. Same goes for locals, and the long distance unreserved passenger traffic that was discussed in the previous pages. There is a need to address these problems as well, and the only way to do so is lots more trains, for which a lot more capacity will be needed. My estimate is that quad tracking will address most of these issues, but won't have much room left for future growth. Not to mention capacity within the city of Mumbai, where even 6 tracks will only meet today's demand. So adding capacity only beyond Mumbai won't help much if those trains can't enter Mumbai on a reasonable schedule.
Net net, quad tracks alone won't be enough in 20 years. And I am assuming the DFC will have enough capacity that it won't need to use these tracks at all. We will need alternatives by then, and given the construction lead times, I wanted us to have an HSR project on-going by 2025 or so. But the loan terms are good enough to get started right away.
nukavarapu wrote:arshyam wrote: For any further improvement, we need more tracks, period. After decades of simply adding trains without augmenting infra, IR has reached a critical point where more trains can simply not be run, unless utilizing the engineering blocks that are reserved for safety/maintenance work. In that sense, Suresh Prabhu has done an admirable job in resisting pressure to add even more trains and focussing on adding more capacity. This goes for fully unreserved trains too, which is a parallel topic of discussion right now.
Yes I agree. I never said we don't need more tracks. My point was do we need a dedicated HSR?
Yes, we will. In any case, like I said earlier, GoI/IR is experimenting with only the Mum-ADI stretch to start with, before going all in. If your scepticism turns out to be right, there won't be more HSR. Having followed IR for a long time, I think HSR will indeed take off and be very successful in India, far more than even China.
nukavarapu wrote:Agreed and can you point me towards the official documentation which governs liability in the even of bankruptcy?
Liability is ours, of course. The fixed investment will be physically in India, won't it? There is a risk for sure, but aren't all infra projects associated with some risk? Why single this one out? And if you think India cannot afford to spend $15 billion over the next 50 years for transport infra, I have nothing further to say.
And since you keep bringing up this bankruptcy issue, might I request you to do the research and share it here? It will help us all learn about it. Thanks.
nukavarapu wrote:arshyam wrote:Someone mentioned this already, so will refer to that here: what about Surat, Vadodara, etc? It's not worth the time to go to the airport, security, etc., just for a short 30 min journey. The airport related time overheads will make this unviable. Trains will go from city centre to city centre, and are far more efficient. Even for HSR, the MH govt is considering the Bandra-Kurla Complex for the terminus, which is a great location, IMHO.
I believe that if the existing infrastructure can be realigned for a semi-HSR, that can easy serve Surat and Vodadra.
Okay, please talk specifics. What are the re-alignments you propose? And please keep in mind my points above about current commuter demand, future growth, increase in quality of travel, etc.
nukavarapu wrote:I already made my point about the goods trains being shifted to DFC once commissioned, so that should pave way for introducing more traffic and which can travel faster. I n my understanding the Governments RFP for long distance EMU was just about that. And the testing of new Talgo trains is the same thing that government is pointing towards. Upgrade the speed by doing incremental upgrade to the existing infrastructure.
Certainly. These are the right things to do, and as you yourself say, IR is indeed trying out improvements on its existing network. So they are not exclusively going for HSR without focussing on the existing infra. I hope you saw that no one turned up for the EMU trainsets tender?
nukavarapu wrote:arshyam wrote:Then let's look at the long term. Apart from Mumbai-Ahmedabad, other corridors with high demand are: Chennai-Bengaluru, Chennai - Coimbatore, Trivandrum-Kochi, Kolkata-Dhanbad, Bhopal-Indore, Delhi-Kanpur-Lucknow, Delhi-Chandigarh, Delhi-Amritsar, Delhi-Jaipur, etc. Most of these routes are currently served by Shatabdi expresses, and a simple upgrade and quadrupling of tracks will help a lot. I would start with a 130kmph to start with, going up to 160. Doing this will help other non-Shatabdi traffic as well, and goods trains will benefit from the increased track capacity. So far, so good. But in 20 years' time, even this will reach capacity, believe it or not. Then what? If the economy keeps growing during this time, then public affordability will have increased to warrant HSR on these routes. Airlines will take more traffic for sure, but won't be enough. My point is, building up existing infra on this routes for now, followed by HSR in the long term is a good way to go. And even then, watch how the most feasible route for HSR does before committing to more routes (the Chinese studies for other routes won't go anywhere). And that's what IR is doing based on the latest budget - diamond quadrilateral and associated infra investments to increase speeds to 160, and zero investment into HSR.
I will not comment on these as in my opinion those proposals are too far fetched.
Far fetched? These are echoing some of your own points! Interesting to see how you dismiss it
