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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 21:38
by Raveen
vimal wrote:AAP and MIM should do well in this election.

What is AAP? Is that even a thing anymore?

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 21:52
by hanumadu
Dr Praveen Patil


@5Forty3
Following Following @5Forty3
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Why did western UP see a 6%+ drop in Muslim voter turnout despite the Mahagatbandhan?... How did Bengal shape-up after "modernized booth-capturing"?... these and many other fascinating stories from the ground on day one only at 5Forty3 Datalabs!..

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 21:53
by Supratik
It seems 5forty3 site crashed.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 21:55
by KL Dubey
hanumadu wrote:
Dr Praveen Patil


@5Forty3
Following Following @5Forty3
More
Why did western UP see a 6%+ drop in Muslim voter turnout despite the Mahagatbandhan?... How did Bengal shape-up after "modernized booth-capturing"?... these and many other fascinating stories from the ground on day one only at 5Forty3 Datalabs!..
Lot of folks in BRF now drawing random "bad news" conclusions from sketchy information such as "low voter turnout".

It looks like some of the "secular" votebank is staying home (perhaps the next best thing than outright voting for NDA).

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 21:57
by ramana
Karthik S wrote:
Bharti Jain Verified account @bhartijainTOI
Follow Follow @bhartijainTOI
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56% turnout in 7 Lok Sabha constituencies in Maharashtra. 63% in 2014
Anyone from MH could let us know if this is a bad sign for BJP?

Two ways of looking at it:
1) BJP will lose.
2) 2014 was a huge dissatisfaction election. The number of voters was 12 crore over the 2009 number.
So a 56% turnout means people are status quo and Status quo is with BJP. So fikr not.
I will tweet to her.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 21:59
by ramana
KLD, The Western UP was supposed to be a Muslim+ Jat demographic base.
6% drop in minority means they decided Congress nor MTB are viable.
So they took holiday.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 22:05
by KL Dubey
Yes thanks, that is what I just said.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 22:11
by Kritavarman
https://twitter.com/ShahulAhm/status/11 ... 4293916673
Chowkidar Shahul Hameed
@ShahulAhm

Now if you map it with the booths then the answer is pretty clear as to who didnt show up.

This is going 7-1 for the BJP.

MGB may have done just enough in Kariana.
9:25 PM - 11 Apr 2019
Common agreement seems to be Western UP going to BJP

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 22:19
by Suraj
Now's the time to relentlessly push the momentum story on SM . Fence sitters and swing voters are swayed by the direction of the wind, and the generating that wind is the job of SM work. There'll be counter-BS, all of which needs to be ignored with focus on the ball.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 22:24
by Mukesh.Kumar
Suraj wrote:Now's the time to relentlessly push the momentum story on SM . Fence sitters and swing voters are swayed by the direction of the wind, and the generating that wind is the job of SM work. There'll be counter-BS, all of which needs to be ignored with focus on the ball.
Yes. The game is not over till the fat lady sings. No letting up.

In fact as the elections proceed the mud thrown by opposition will intensify. Need to get the true picture out

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 22:26
by Rahul M
Suraj wrote:Now's the time to relentlessly push the momentum story on SM . Fence sitters and swing voters are swayed by the direction of the wind, and the generating that wind is the job of SM work. There'll be counter-BS, all of which needs to be ignored with focus on the ball.
on that note, download this nice ad and spread on twitter.

https://twitter.com/SureshNakhua/status ... 7480681473

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 22:28
by Supratik
It seems the BJP has not done well in TS and AP according to PP. My guess was that the INC will disintegrate in TS and BJP will take up the space left. Will have to look at vote shares. AP was not in consideration anyway after CBN went after Modi. He is not going to win by cutting his own nose. TDP + BJP could still have given a good fight to Jagan.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 22:43
by nachiket
Karthik S wrote:
Anyone from MH could let us know if this is a bad sign for BJP?
In MH,the traditional Cong-NCP votebanks always turn out historically. So low turnout is usually a bad sign. Having said that it is possible that they may be feeling disillusioned and stayed home. The BJP state govt. is doing well, so voters from both sides may have been less enthusiastic.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 22:49
by Manish_Sharma
https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1116 ... 96224?s=19

Dr. Pravin Patil:
We know the price is high, but you must also know how difficult it is to map nearly a million polling booths, put ground teams in nearly 400 districts and analyze elections like no-one else has ever done in India. Do subscribe here for the 2019 journey! https://t.co/aHNAJVpJM4

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 22:50
by anmol
Chitra Subramaniam
‏Verified account @chitraSD
9m9 minutes ago

Extraordinary this. #MKstalin says he is not against #Hindus. Probably meant the newspaper. #VoteForIndia
https://twitter.com/chitraSD/status/1116384944933175296

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 22:51
by jamwal
Almost every Hindu I know in Jammu voted for Modi even though some candidates like the one for Jammu-Poonch constituency are not that good. Muslims apart from a minuscule number are voting for "secular" parties.

Sikhs seem to be virulently anti-Modi and have a surprising amount of hate for Hindus. Too much khalistani propaganda being consumed on social media.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 22:52
by Karthik S
Supratik wrote:It seems the BJP has not done well in TS and AP according to PP. My guess was that the INC will disintegrate in TS and BJP will take up the space left. Will have to look at vote shares. AP was not in consideration anyway after CBN went after Modi. He is not going to win by cutting his own nose. TDP + BJP could still have given a good fight to Jagan.
Saw only Secunderabad is a safe bet for BJP in TS. BTW, BJP is not that strong in both Telugu states. So anything more than 1 in TS is good.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 22:54
by Supratik
PP says BJP came third in Sec.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 22:59
by Manish_Sharma
https://twitter.com/narendramodi177/sta ... 78563?s=19
Alleged audio of TMC leader Khokon leaked, which says:

- Identify people who don't vote for TMC

-Gives advice on rigging votes

-Warns Voters to not vote any other party

-Police & BDO are under TMC control

-Make "setting" with Officials

This is how Mamata is saving Democracy

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 23:03
by jamwal
Posted this on my Facebook/Twitter. Kindly spread the message . Don't take any congi type shameless propaganda at face value and counter it wherever possible. These elections are too important to care for feelings of some stupid snowflakes in friends and family circles,.

I've been trying to stay quiet, mind my own business and not get in to arguments with friends and family over #election issues. I sometimes read nasty political stuff that people in my circles post and ignore it.

But then I realise the type of damage these wannabe intellectuals can cause by their ignorance, apathy & Brown Sahib/Mem syndrome. I certainly don't want to live through another Mumbai attack or UPA scam or have humiliation to have someone from Mahathugbandhan as my PM.

It's obvious that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is not perfect and the work, statements etc could have been better. They deserve the flak for it as well as praise for things they've done right. I support them most (let's say 80%) of time and there's no remotely good alternative.

So my vote this time is for #BJP. People can vote for whoever they like & declare it wherever they want. But if someone posts wannabe intellectual type fake rhetoric just for mutual back-scratching, Likes etc, it's likely that I may respond in a caustic manner

It's just that I don't want fence sitters to be influenced by their borderline retarded propaganda like the one Sibbal presented as proof of corruption during demonetisation. If my replies are "offensive", it's because your statement deserves it; unless ofcourse there's proof. If there's proof, post it. If it's just verbal diarrhea copied from some random social media pages or Kejriwal, Gandhi type politicians, then it deserves to be countered by truth. I simply don't have time or patience for long platitude filled discussions and don't really care about "feelings and opinions" when source is so flawed.

So in nutshell, if my replies to your political posts offend you, it's nothing personal. I just think that having a good government is more important & beneficial than having naive or stupid frands.

Thanks for reading

FOR Too Long:Didn't Read - #ModiFirSe

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 23:06
by Manish_Sharma
https://twitter.com/VictoryForNamo/stat ... 87681?s=19
BJP Muslim girl Booth Worker catches fraudulent voting red handed, PLEASE WATCH ON TWITTER LINK THIS VIDEO: Check out @VictoryForNamo’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/VictoryForNamo/stat ... 87681?s=09
@संजीव बालियान-मुज़फ़्फ़रनगर अगेन,बीजेपी की मुस्लिम कार्यकर्ता द्वारा फ़र्ज़ी वोटिंग का रंगे हाथ पकड़ना,पहचान पत्र किसी और का वोट कोई और डाल रहा है https://t.co/OEStN2vdzp

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 23:13
by vijayk
Vidharba now might reach 63% Voting. Good news

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 23:14
by Manish_Sharma
jamwal wrote:
Sikhs seem to be virulently anti-Modi and have a surprising amount of hate for Hindus. Too much khalistani propaganda being consumed on social media.
It's indeed been a shock to me how much hatred sikhs are having for BJP and Modi, despite Modi raising '84 riots. Making life easy for Truckers Tansporters.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 23:26
by jamwal
Core issue is that they are used to Hindus being overly deferential and buying in to stories of solitary sikh valour and sacrifice for "defence of Hindus". Strong Hindu leaders like Modi help in deflating this bubble. Then there is khalistani type propaganda on social media which demonises Hindus and makes up stories of Sikh muslim love and brotherhood.

In Jammu, Sikhs hate Dogras because they believe that Dogra kings helped the destruction of sikh empire. There is no acknowledgement of massive infighting, assassinations, series of military defeats and more which caused sikh empire to implode within a generation. So Hindu Dogras are supposed to be the villains here. But they forget how Dogras gave same shelter and aid to the Hindu and Sikh refugees from PoK and Pakistan.



The koolaid of khalistani propaganda and the sikh/punjabi supremacist shit you see in punjabi media/songs is a a potent brew.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 23:28
by vijayk
jamwal wrote:Core issue is that they are used to Hindus being overly deferential and buying in to stories of solitary sikh valour and sacrifice for "defence of Hindus". Strong Hindu leaders like Modi help in deflating this bubble. Then there is khalistani type propaganda on social media which demonises Hindus and makes up stories of Sikh muslim love and brotherhood.

In Jammu, Sikhs hate Dogras because they believe that Dogra kings helped the destruction of sikh empire. There is no acknowledgement of massive infighting, assassinations, series of military defeats and more which caused sikh empire to implode within a generation. So Hindu Dogras are supposed to be the villains here. But they forget how Dogras gave same shelter and aid to the Hindu and Sikh refugees from PoK and Pakistan.



The koolaid of khalistani propaganda and the sikh/punjabi supremacist shit you see in punjabi media/songs is a a potent brew.
That's why Kujli,, PAPPU used people like Siddu to spread RSS/Hindu hate

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 23:44
by Lilo
nachiket wrote:
Karthik S wrote:
Anyone from MH could let us know if this is a bad sign for BJP?
In MH,the traditional Cong-NCP votebanks always turn out historically. So low turnout is usually a bad sign. Having said that it is possible that they may be feeling disillusioned and stayed home. The BJP state govt. is doing well, so voters from both sides may have been less enthusiastic.
Numbers got revised up wards as it happens in hours after the polling ends.
Turn out percentage is Ok in MH.
https://twitter.com/Kal_Chiron/status/1 ... 6590838784

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 23:47
by nachiket
Lilo wrote: Numbers got revised up wards as it happens in hours after the polling ends.
Turn out percentage is Ok in MH.
https://twitter.com/Kal_Chiron/status/1 ... 6590838784
Good to know. Someone needs to tell Chiron/Atri ji to come back and post here at least during the elections. Miss his insights from MH.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 11 Apr 2019 23:54
by Manish_Sharma
Right now I miss RamaY ji most, his posts along with Lilo ji on bharatganrajya.com were super enlightening.... Hope he is brought back....
BIF forces even managed to suspend his TWITTER account to...

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 00:01
by darshhan
jamwal wrote:Core issue is that they are used to Hindus being overly deferential and buying in to stories of solitary sikh valour and sacrifice for "defence of Hindus". Strong Hindu leaders like Modi help in deflating this bubble. Then there is khalistani type propaganda on social media which demonises Hindus and makes up stories of Sikh muslim love and brotherhood.

In Jammu, Sikhs hate Dogras because they believe that Dogra kings helped the destruction of sikh empire. There is no acknowledgement of massive infighting, assassinations, series of military defeats and more which caused sikh empire to implode within a generation. So Hindu Dogras are supposed to be the villains here. But they forget how Dogras gave same shelter and aid to the Hindu and Sikh refugees from PoK and Pakistan.



The koolaid of khalistani propaganda and the sikh/punjabi supremacist shit you see in punjabi media/songs is a a potent brew.
Plus you will never see khalistanis acknowledging Dogra valour and capability in capturing Kashmir, Ladakh and even Tibet. I mean is there a tougher terrain anywhere on earth and all this in 19th century.

Oh and by the way even Banda Singh Bahadur was of dogra hindu origin.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 00:10
by Manish_Sharma
https://twitter.com/Prof_Hariom/status/ ... 10562?s=19

Prof. Hari Om

Big big big breaking
Mosque and Church join hands against PM @narendramodi , Appeal to Muslims and Christians to vote against him.
They are not even 17% and you Hindus, Buddhists, Jains and Sikhs are over 82%.
Will you allow Mosque and Church to win?
No, you can not.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 00:37
by ShyamSP
Supratik wrote:PP says BJP came third in Sec.
Secunderabad is BJP's own MP seat of Bandaru Dattatreya. Kishan Reddy is losing it. He also lost his own long-held MLA seat in Amberpet recently. Kishan Reddy lacks qualities of leader. Days of BJP leaders such as Baddam Balreddy, Dattatreya, who fought against MIM in twin cities and used to win in old days, are over. If BJP can't hold city, it is unlikely they make large impact in the rest of Telangana. I thought TRS would let BJP win 1-2 seats as quid-pro-quo.

Looks like TRS may win 14, INC 2, and MIM 1 in Telangana.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 00:51
by Rahul M
Manish_Sharma wrote:https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1116 ... 96224?s=19

Dr. Pravin Patil:
We know the price is high, but you must also know how difficult it is to map nearly a million polling booths, put ground teams in nearly 400 districts and analyze elections like no-one else has ever done in India. Do subscribe here for the 2019 journey! https://t.co/aHNAJVpJM4
just subscribed to 5forty3, just like back in 2014. hope the outcome's even better this time !

One very important point PP makes in this article : https://5forty3.in/gaze_articles.php?articalid=217
the usual Big Two issues of Indian elections, inflation and corruption are conspicuous by their absence in 2019. That, more than anything else is indicative the transformation that modi has brought to India.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 00:57
by OmkarC
Supratik wrote:PP says BJP came third in Sec.
Third is surprising.. every survey I saw was a TRS vs BJP fight.. the city has > 2L Yadav voters and both TRS & Congress put up Yadav candidates.. BJP was hoping a split in their votes + educated & NI voters to back them. Didnt happen, looks like.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 01:02
by Suraj
Rahul M wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1116 ... 96224?s=19

Dr. Pravin Patil:
We know the price is high, but you must also know how difficult it is to map nearly a million polling booths, put ground teams in nearly 400 districts and analyze elections like no-one else has ever done in India. Do subscribe here for the 2019 journey! https://t.co/aHNAJVpJM4
just subscribed to 5forty3, just like back in 2014. hope the outcome's even better this time !

One very important point PP makes in this article : https://5forty3.in/gaze_articles.php?articalid=217
the usual Big Two issues of Indian elections, inflation and corruption are conspicuous by their absence in 2019. That, more than anything else is indicative the transformation that modi has brought to India.
He put that to poll on twitter a couple of weeks ago asking people to guess what are two things people almost always mention during polls, but which his team were seldom getting as a response during prepoll conversations, and several people guessed right - 'mehengai' and 'bhrashtachar'. It's interesting that not only are these not major poll issues in the public mindset, but the public themselves realize that two perennial hot button issues aren't quite at the top of their radar. It reflects an evolution of the social contract between state and the people to a higher level.

I plan to contribute more to 5forty3 as the phases go on. People like him are important to support through events like this.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 01:04
by nachiket
I subscribed as well. More for supporting the work they are doing than getting access to the articles behind the paywall, although the articles are quite good and informative.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 01:05
by OmkarC
ShyamSP wrote:
Supratik wrote:PP says BJP came third in Sec.
Secunderabad is BJP's own MP seat of Bandaru Dattatreya. Kishan Reddy is losing it. He also lost his own long-held MLA seat in Amberpet recently. Kishan Reddy lacks qualities of leader. Days of BJP leaders such as Baddam Balreddy, Dattatreya, who fought against MIM in twin cities and used to win in old days, are over. If BJP can't hold city, it is unlikely they make large impact in the rest of Telangana. I thought TRS would let BJP win 1-2 seats as quid-pro-quo.

Looks like TRS may win 14, INC 2, and MIM 1 in Telangana.
Let's see how things unfold - expected DK Aruna in Mahboobnagar & Aravind in Nizambad, to give a tough fight.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 01:20
by Shivaji
Another very good twitter handle for following elections and voter mood is this:

https://twitter.com/savvyasaachi

His predictions for election are:
BJP - 246-258
NDA - 298-310

INC - 71-81
UPA - 120-126

OTH - 113-119

His analysis of each state is really good.

What I liked the most is that he updates his analysis for local factors as well. E.g. in my native place constituency in Marathwada region of Maharashtra, one local INC leader shifted to BJP. And this person had noted this local event and analysed impact correctly which is usually lacking in national surveys.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 01:21
by vijayk
Mandar Manmohan Sawant


@MandarSawant184
2h2 hours ago
More
Replying to @bhs7rocks @Gutrgoo
Maharashtra with 2019 revised figures:

Nagpur
2014: 57%
2019: 58%

Wardha
2014: 65%
2019: 65%

Yavatmal
2014: 59.3%
2019: 62%

Bhandara - Gondia
2014: 72.3%
2019: 71%

Chandrapur
2014: 63.3%
2019: 68%

Gadchiroli
2014: 69.9%
2019: 72%

Ramtek
2014: 62.6%
2019: 60%

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 01:24
by vijayk
सव्यसाची -SAVYASACHI


@savvyasaachi
3h3 hours ago
More
AP

Jagan ahead in both assembly and Loksabha

TL

TRS all the way

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 01:37
by ShyamSP
vijayk wrote:Mandar Manmohan Sawant


@MandarSawant184
2h2 hours ago
More
Replying to @bhs7rocks @Gutrgoo
Maharashtra with 2019 revised figures:

Nagpur
2014: 57%
2019: 58%

Wardha
2014: 65%
2019: 65%
...
On Maharastra, same voting % means robotic voting so same results can be expected. In my numbers, BJP retains Maharastra and Gujarat same way so only dent is in Rajasthan, MP, Chattisgarh, and UP. UP 40-50 is still good show to form with new NDA-friendly supporters/parties.