Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

[A_Gupta]

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India's foreign ministry said peace on its border with China was critical for relations to become normal, reacting on Friday to a Reuters report that New Delhi was not keen to restart direct flights with China amid a stand-off on their Himalayan frontier.

China has been pressing India to restart direct passenger flights after a four-year halt, but New Delhi is resisting as the border dispute continues to weigh on ties between the world's two most populous countries, Reuters reported on Thursday.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... in-stalled

[SSridhar]

China has been desperately attempting to make it appear as though everything is normal since the time India took punitive measures.

[chetak]

Some from the tribe seem to have no compunctions selling out their own countries for a few dollar$ more

cheeni doctrines in exploiting their air force assets and especially naval carrier operations involving deck based platforms are derived from russian concepts. Their carrier pilots are russki trained because the cheen had absolutely no access to western resources in the domain

cheeni pilots were originally trained to blindly follow the commands of ground control/fighter controllers. The performance of iraqi air force in gulf wars showed the weakness of this constraining doctrine.

The western approach involves letting pilots greater freedom in deciding the course of action instead of micromanaging them.

In time, the west will impose "selected and targeted removal/termination with extreme prejudice" of such wayward resources and assets to discourage them from actively aiding and abetting the enemy

BTW, there are plenty of paki pigs who are amriki/USAF trained, but none with carrier based experience

[Suraj]

Xi Jinping’s Russian Lessons
What the Chinese Leader’s Father Taught Him About Dealing With Moscow
Summary Interpretation:
Xi Zhongxun was posted to head Chinese-occupied Xinjiang in the 1950s. He suffered loss of face when the Russians talked down the Chinese delegation he was part of to Moscow for their aggressiveness on the Sino-Indian border. Later, the Sino-Sovient split was catalyzed by Moscows anger at Beijing for its behavior on the Indian border. The subsequent purge of Xi's father had a lasting impact on Xi himself. It is the source of his animus with India.

[Hriday]

The subsequent purge of Xi's father had a lasting impact on Xi himself. It is the source of his animus with India.

During the Galwan standoff, you correctly predicted that China will not go kinetic despite the very tense situation as it is a classic bullying behaviour by China. They just want to get concessions by threat and are not willing to accept losses.

But many in the forum believe that a major conflict if not war will happen soon in the coming years. Reasons include; logistics readiness, Xi considering himself like an emperor unlike his predecessors etc.
What is your take ?

[hgupta]

The subsequent purge of Xi's father had a lasting impact on Xi himself. It is the source of his animus with India.

During the Galwan standoff, you correctly predicted that China will not go kinetic despite the very tense situation as it is a classic bullying behaviour by China. They just want to get concessions by threat and are not willing to accept losses.

But many in the forum believe that a major conflict if not war will happen soon in the coming years. Reasons include; logistics readiness, Xi considering himself like an emperor unlike his predecessors etc.
What is your take ?

War is coming. India needs to be ready for that and I don't see GoI fully stepping up to the plate by cracking the whips against the IA & IAF leadership. The IA & IAF leadership has ossified and is devoid of new ideas such as the ones advocated by the late Gen. Sundarji. This age based promotion really needs to go.

[S_Madhukar]

There is every possibility that the G2 faction may come back next term and with the Russia bogey as an excuse a blind eye may be turned for Eleven to vent his frustration. He will ensure that win or lose he has all the drones and cameras ready for action to shoot a movie where he wins and the mainstream in India and outside will be only happy to cheer him on. Too much money, h**kers and $$ printing has happened for either side to split that easily

[bala]

The two south Indian retired generals ( Maj Gen P R Shankar and Lt Gen Rajiv Narayanan) of the Indian army assess China's defence and aerospace capability.

[sanman]

[Deans]

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/06/th ... hreat.html

There's a Chinese troll in the comments section (end of this blog post). I wanted to give him a piece of my mind, but I'd rather that others do it
instead of my getting baited by him. Please take a look at reply if you see fit.

[Deans]

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/06/th ... hreat.html

There's a Chinese troll in the comments section (end of this blog post). I wanted to give him a piece of my mind, but I'd rather that others do it
instead of my getting baited by him. Please take a look at reply if you see fit.

Thanks for the robust responses. Better than what I would have done.

[sanman]

[sanman]

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/06/th ... hreat.html

There's a Chinese troll in the comments section (end of this blog post). I wanted to give him a piece of my mind, but I'd rather that others do it
instead of my getting baited by him. Please take a look at reply if you see fit.

Okay, I think I replied to him.

[Deans]

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/06/th ... hreat.html

There's a Chinese troll in the comments section (end of this blog post). I wanted to give him a piece of my mind, but I'd rather that others do it
instead of my getting baited by him. Please take a look at reply if you see fit.

Okay, I think I replied to him.

Yes thanks. I deleted his reply as it was just trolling without substance.

[sanman]

China trying new gold-smuggling scheme against India?

[bala]

India plans 12 hydropower stations in Arunachal Pradesh. China protests like it is their land.



It is time to tell the Chinese to vacate Tibet openly.

[R Charan]

India's Defence Budget 2024-25: A Growing Focus on China Amidst Rising Tensions

In anticipation of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Union Budget presentation on July 23rd, experts predict a significant increase in India's defence allocation for the fiscal year 2024-25.

This move reflects a continued emphasis on bolstering military capabilities to address evolving geopolitical challenges, particularly those posed by neighboring China.

https://defence.in/threads/indias-defen ... ions.8268/

[sanman]

[venkat_kv]

Okay, I think I replied to him.

Yes thanks. I deleted his reply as it was just trolling without substance.

Dean saar,
you have deleted my response also that quoted a news paper article and major gaurav arya response in twitter link quoted about indian casualties. But thanks for keeping the other two responses typed.

[Deans]

Yes thanks. I deleted his reply as it was just trolling without substance.

Dean saar,
you have deleted my response also that quoted a news paper article and major gaurav arya response in twitter link quoted about indian casualties. But thanks for keeping the other two responses typed.

Sorry. I thought I deleted only the trollers post (he had replied to your reply with unacceptable comments), I think your reply got deleted unintentionally as well. If you can (again) please add it separately, I will retain it and add that the previous comment was deleted.

[bala]

The history of China has been when they were strong Tibet was under them. When China became weak, Tibet was free and independent. Right now China is facing downward winds in the economic sector, Emperor has been purging high leadership of PLA. There is zero trust between PLA and Emperor. Now is the time for India to press its advantage. Both Tibet and PoJK need to be resolved. With China weakened, neighbor to the west kya hoga?

Watch Sanjay Dixit and the two General of Indian army - PR Shankar and Rajiv Narayanan - talking out these topics

What is wrong with Xi the Emperor?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsNgADkB5X4

There are some rumors that Emperor is down with a heart stroke during CCP meeting.

[sanman]

US pressures Japan & Netherlands on semiconductor ties to China

[bala]

Emperor Eleven's condition is under speculation. He is not being mentioned in Any China CCP news. Here is PGurus with Jennifer Zeng who is claiming a stroke for Emperor. He attended 1 day of 3rd Plenum of CCP meeting after that he is missing.

[sanman]

I find this guy worth paying attention to. He's a shill for China, but he presents his arguments convincingly, unlike some crude wumao

[VKumar]

Imports from China are rising at an alarming rate. Not only essential items but also of consumer goods which can be manufactured by MSME. Enterprises who import from China and consumers who buy Chinese are in fact paying for the bullets that kill our soldiers.

Appalling lack of self respect

[sanman]

Sorry to sound clueless, but

What's happening with Xi Jinping?

Keep hearing rumors Xi has had some stroke or some kind of medical event.
Where the hell is he? Can't find any new speeches or appearances by him over past week.
Is there any truth to the rumors?

[Pratyush]

This is the second time in the recent past that Xi has disappeared from the scene.

[sanman]

Here's commentary that says China no longer seen as serious threat in Indian Ocean:

[sanman]

[ricky_v]

now this article mentions this, which i am not sure is correct, so not too sure about the editorial qualifications of the author / portal, the author also seems to be heavily china biased with many downright incorrect assertions and facts, frankly, i would usually would not have posted this, but there has been paucity of articles, plus i believe there are many who hold the below viewpoint, abroad but also in india, dipping into wider thought every now and then is advisable to grasp the current level and map future contours

The proposed opening to China—a rebuke to American diplomacy in the region—followed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to New Delhi earlier this month.

https://asiatimes.com/2024/07/india-chi ... ipe-dream/

India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on July 25 endorsed her economic advisor’s proposal to open the country to direct investment from China, effectively frozen since the Sino-Indian border clashes of 2020.

Earlier this week, Reuters reported, “India’s Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said…that to boost its global exports New Delhi can either integrate into China’s supply chain or promote foreign direct investment (FDI) from China.

heres an interesting assessment

In 2022, I argued that a demographic imperative—the declining population of non-Muslim parts of Asia versus the growth of Muslim populations—would push India, Russia and China toward a strategic rapprochement.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/demograph ... e-entente/

The next strategic alignment among past enemies may bring together two of today’s strategic antagonists, namely India and China. At first glance, this seems improbable in the extreme. India and China have a longstanding border dispute that caused several hundred casualties in a clash in 1967 and claimed the lives of several dozen soldiers in another last year.

India will have far more working-age people than China as the present century progresses. And the population of poorly educated people in Muslim Asia will equal India and China combined if present trends continue. That presents both an economic opportunity and an existential challenge. This is not a religious issue, but a matter of cultural and educational levels, as I will explain.

India is the only country in the world with enough people and adequate governance to absorb China’s savings

For China, Russia and India, this represents a strategic challenge of the first order. All three countries have significant Muslim minorities, but each country’s circumstances are different.

Muslims comprise only 23 to 40 million of the Chinese population, depending on which estimate one accepts, or less than 3% of the total. Nonetheless, the security threat that radicalized Uighur Muslims presented to the Chinese state was great enough to prompt Beijing to incarcerate more than a million Uighurs for what the government called re-education.


By contrast, some 30% of Russia’s population will be Muslim by 2030, according to several estimates, although data are hard to verify. Russia’s total fertility rate had risen to 1.8 children per female, close to replacement, in 2018, before falling back to about 1.5 after the Covid-19 epidemic, and it is hard to separate Muslim from non-Muslim fertility rates.

Muslims comprise about 15% of India’s population. Their fertility rate has fallen from 4.4 children per female in 1992 to only 2.6 in 2015, still higher than the 2.1 fertility rate among Hindus, but converging.

Twice in the past year, American foreign policy has pushed China, India and Russia into the same strategic corner: America’s humiliating abandonment of Afghanistan, and America’s failure to defuse the Ukraine crisis. The first left the three Asian powers with an intractable mess to clean up. The second persuaded New Delhi that the price of American friendship was to carry baggage that might explode in the not-too-distant future.


But Pakistan may be more trouble than it’s worth to Beijing. As FM Shakil reported in February, the then prime minister of Pakistan Imran Kahn asked China for a $9 billion bailout to prevent a default on loans that mature in June. Pakistan owes China $18.4 billion, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Pakistan is intractably backward, politically erratic and unreliable as an economic partner. China may conclude that a diplomatic revolution is in order – a turn away from Pakistan toward its southern neighbor, which can boast of far greater human capital resources and a strong political system.

Of Pakistan’s 29 prime ministers since its founding in 1947, not one has completed a full term in office. India has its issues, but it has had an unbroken succession of democratically elected governments for 75 years.

At some point, China may decide to write off its investment in Pakistan and upgrade its relationship with India. And that would turn all strategic calculations inside-out.

[sanman]

This American often sounds like a shill for China, but the quality of his arguments are good:

[bala]

Lt Gen P R Shankar has some interesting graphs on the downward slide of the Chinese.



Unemployment raging madly, cars unsold on lots, high speed train stations are deserted, real estate tanked (30% of GDP), mountains of debt with banks, third plenum a dud, emperor pissed of PLA and others by removing their top leaders, many ghost cities, etc. Someone recently in China can report the mood and atmosphere on the ground. Manufacturing of multi-national's products have made a beeline exit from China. Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Malayasia, Mexico and India where these are relocated. The thing starts to crumble slowly and then turns into an avalanche. Need to keep a close eye on turn of events in China.

[sanman]

[sanman]

India Bringing in China FDI for Economic Gain?

[sanman]

Chinese experts feel India has no choice but to economically engage with China:

[sanman]

[ricky_v]

https://providencemag.com/2024/08/the-c ... nd-russia/

On July 6th, the 89th birthday of His Holiness the Dalai Lama was celebrated in Dharamshala, India and observed by the Tibetan diaspora and supporters worldwide. Beyond marking a milestone for the leader of the Tibetan Buddhist faith, this event carries significant political implications for China amid great power competition. Ironically, the one place his birthday was not celebrated was in his native Tibet, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) forbids citizens from having any contact with their spiritual leader, who has lived in exile since 1959. Each year, as his birthday approaches, the repression in Tibet intensifies. This year, under the revised espionage law, police have been conducting random cellphone checks to ensure Tibetans have not downloaded his photo to pray for him.

he Indian ambassador even attended the first large-scale public celebration of the Dalai Lama’s birthday in Mongolia, where Tibetan Buddhism is the national religion. Since Mongolia won its independence from the Qing dynasty in 1921, China has tried to control the fiercely independent nation, and the Dalai Lama has been a sticking point. When the Dalai Lama visited Mongolia in November 2016, China responded with economic sanctions. Although Mongolia has avoided inviting His Holiness back to prevent reprisals, this celebration clearly demonstrates Mongolia’s refusal to submit to Chinese suzerainty.


In another blow to the CCP, representatives from China’s closest ally, Russia, also attended the celebration in Ulaanbaatar. This is because the Mongolic republics within the Russian Federation, including Buryatia, Kalmykia, and Tuva, follow Tibetan Buddhism. While the CCP can exert significant influence over economically dependent states, religion remains a point of resistance.

The Global Times article stated, “Some Living Buddhas affirmed by the 14th Dalai Lama, the highest lama of Tibetan Buddhism, have been behind riots or self-immolations that aim to further the cause of Tibetan independence.” This quote was from Zhou Quan, a columnist at m4.cn, a Beijing-based political commentary website dedicated to “helping young Chinese build healthy, constructive, and progressive minds.” In the CCP’s estimation, building a healthy mind includes rejecting religion. Under Chinese law, children under 18 are barred from any religious affiliation. The CCP also believes that for young people to have healthy, progressive minds, they must reject traditional cultures that are not Han Chinese. This particularly applies to Uyghur culture in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR), as well as Mongolian culture in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR), and Tibetan culture in Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR).

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Interesting talk on Gunner's Shot with Maj Gen R. Narayanan



Gist:

• Lizard has been bluffing everyone.Can anyone track down the Op-Ed mentioned at 7:15 that the PLA is not ready for war.
• Multiple missile failures (Dong Feng 15 which has been in operational since mid 90's)- April 22 trying to intimidate Taiwan over Pelosi's visit.

[sanman]

[sanman]

China Using Tiktok to Tilt US Election Against Trump