West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

[SRajesh]

Khaleej Times ticker tape:
2 Indian Flagged ships attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.
Any further info at all
PeePeeCee only says ships attacked

[Amber G.]

Trump at 18:00 –– "

I have made Iran open the Strait of Hormuz so now NATO countries are calling me if i need help to coordinate. I told them i need no help"

Spain at 18:10 –– "

That's a lie. We never called him to coordinate with US military at Strait of Hormuz or in fact, anywhere. He is still living in delusion like he did for the last two months"

[Amber G.]

Khaleej Times ticker tape:
2 Indian Flagged ships attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.
Any further info at all
PeePeeCee only says ships attacked

<clip>
Iranian Ambassador to India Mohammad Fathali leaves from Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in New Delhi after he was summoned by Indian Government over Iranian Navy firing at two Indian vessels even after giving the clearance to move at Strait of Hormuz.

Audio reportedly from the Indian oil tanker fired on by Iranian Navy

“You gave me clearance to go. My name is second on your list. You are firing now. Let me turn back!”
---

[Vayutuvan]

GUYS!!GUYS!!what if the orange liar flailing his poop-filled diapers is, dare i say it? a Masterstroke? a 3d chess if you will?
I believe, Patriots are in control after all.

… on this same timeline china would have collapsed already though of its own internal inertia, so why bother?

Deeply vested economic interests are playing Suvarna Kapi like a fiddle. MIC.

[williams]

Slowly some trends are emerging:

1. Iran is holding the strait of Hormuz hostage with simple gun boats and Mighty USN cannot do much about it. The question is why? Are they that risk averse to fight these gun boats and few mines? Can IN do it?
2. If USN is doing a Naval blockade, how come these Gun boats show up?
3. Except for Chabahar and the Caspian sea ports all other Iranian ports are inside the strait. If USN is not controlling the strait, what sort of blockade is it doing? How will it shutdown the dark fleet that Iran is operating for years?
4. At this point the rest of the points are mute. Even if Iran agrees to return the fissile material. They can simply say: "Come and take it, it is buried deep inside." The question of securing the strait will always linger.

[bala]

Deeply vested economic interests are playing Suvarna Kapi like a fiddle. MIC.

No need to guess who is behind the scenes in US - the US Deep State. These buggers are finely controlling all aspects - economic (mainly making money out of chaos), political, MICs, big power games and so on. They control 300 T assets and are looking at return on their investment. The US El Presidente is useful front end for their nefarious activities. They are allowing DJT to handle loud mouth stuff, including media bashing and confusion, and the fully TDS inflicted people are getting worked up and this chaos is useful to the Deep State since they can toss DJT aside when the time is appropriate. Make no mistake China, Russia and even India are all being played simultaneously with the former two as big prize. China is already in deep doodoo since their nuke help (JCPOA etc the chinese are laughing at such nonsense by Conman Obummer) is all for naught and they have to pay full premium for gas and oil. Emperor is shakily holding onto power while his underlings get fired everyday.

[Jay]

So the "US Deep State" motive is to get a maximum return on their investments and that's the end game they are after. Outstanding.

[Amber G.]

4. At this point the rest of the points are mute. Even if Iran agrees to return the fissile material. They can simply say: "Come and take it, it is buried deep inside." The question of securing the strait will always linger.

Some comments:
The technical reality of Iran’s nuclear inventory makes the rhetoric of "taking it all back" is meaning less.

Fairy well known (IAEA documented)—much of which is now literally under tons of debris following the June 2025 and March 2026 strikes—is as follows:
Enriched Uranium Stockpile (The "Dust")
The total enriched uranium in various forms UF_6 is approximately 9 to 10 metric tons!

• Highly Enriched (60%): Roughly 440 kg (about 1,000 lbs). This is the "strategic" stockpile that Trump refers to as "Nuclear Dust." It is currently believed to be buried under rubble at Isfahan and Natanz. (Can fin in a carry on luggage)

• Low Enriched (2%–5%) over 8,400 kg

.
Medium Enriched (20%): Approximately 184 kg.
Raw Uranium & Yellowcake (The Reserves)
The "boast" of clearing the material becomes more complicated when you look at the raw inventory:

• Before the recent strikes, Iran held hundreds of tons of yellowcake, including a legacy import of 210 tons from Kazakhstan.

• The Ardakan Yellowcake Plant (Shahid Rezayee Nejad) had an annual capacity of 60 tons before it was struck on March 27, 2026.

• Iran’s mines in Saghand and Gachin provide a continuous stream of uranium ore, meaning even if the current 10 tons of enriched material were removed, the "tap" is still connected to domestic reserves.

Spent Fuel & Plutonium

• The Bushehr Reactor: Holds over 200 tons of spent fuel. While this is not "fissile" in its current state, it contains enough plutonium to theoretically create dozens of weapons if reprocessed—a process Iran currently lacks the industrial scale for, but which remains a "lingering" threat in any long-term security calculation.

• Not to mention about 80 tons of current fuel (Enriched U from Russia) there

.

So all of Trumps boast is like his claiming saving 30-50 million lives in India-Pak and 8 others wars!

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile:

The "destruction" and "removal" are being used again. To clear it all up...
1. What was "Destroyed" last year?
You recall Trump saying he "destroyed" the nuclear program last year in the Operation Midnight Hammer (June 2025).

• In mid-2025, the U.S. used B-2 bombers to hit the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities. Trump claimed at the time that he had "totally obliterated" their program.

• (While the physical buildings and centrifuges were severely damaged, the nuclear material (the enriched uranium itself) was not destroyed. It was reported to be buried deep underground or hidden in bunkers. Intelligence reports from early 2026 indicated that Iran still possessed roughly 400 to 460 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium.)

2. Why is he talking about a "Deal" now?

• The "Dust" Claim: On Truth Social today, Trump referred to the material as "Nuclear Dust" and claimed the U.S. would now physically take it.

This new claim comes on the heels of Operation Epic Fury , which was a much larger campaign that killed top Iranian leaders and established a naval blockade. Trump ..."We broke their machines last year; now we are using a blockade to force them to hand over the fuel."

3. Validity: "Trump Saying It" vs. "Iran Agreeing"
US / Trump/Truth Social) / Iranian Perspective (State Media)
Claims Iran has "agreed to everything." / Dismisses claims as "building castles in the air."

Asserts all uranium will be moved to the U.S. / States enriched uranium is "sacred" and will never leave.
Claims "no money" will be paid. / Iran wants $20 billion in frozen assets released.[/code]

As of this evening:

• No signed document exists.
  No IAEA (or other such agencies) confirmed a handover.
  The most "concrete" thing currently happening is the U.S. naval blockade of Strait of Schrödinger
  We likely won't know the truth until Terroristan gets a chance too ..

[Amber G.]

News item:

Donald Trump abruptly kicked the press out of the Oval Office during a bizarre Saturday appearance with Joe Rogan—right as reporters began asking tough questions about Iran.

This comes as Iran announced it is fully closing the Strait of Hormuz again, turning ships back and even firing on some vessels that refused orders to retreat. Iran is also rejecting Trump’s claims about negotiations, calling them “false,” and warning it’s prepared to resume war if its terms aren’t met.

[Amber G.]

In short:

10:00 AM, Trump — We are ending this war. The deal is pretty successful.

10:05 AM, Trump — Hormuz will now always remain open to the world. We can roam there freely.

10:10 AM, Trump — We will continue to have a blockade, and we’ll have to start dropping bombs again.

All these statements within 10 minutes.

[Amber G.]

And Now: 10:30 AM - Trump thanks Global Hub of Terrorism Pakistan’s Prime Minister and Field Marshall.


@Jay: So the "US Deep State" motive is to get a maximum return on their investments and that's the end game they are after. Outstanding, Indeed!

[skumar]

Iran controls what enters the SOH and US controls what exits the SOH and Gulf of Oman.

This is an untenable situation for the rest of the world. The ROW is not going to agree to Iran controlling the SOH and extorting a "toll" once the war ends. It is not the toll itself but the freedom of passage that matters. At the moment, there is a war ongoing and the ROW is giving Iran a jail free card barely tolerating it while enjoying watching Trump being mocked by and struggling with a middling (but very determined) power at best.

The Gulf countries are in a conundrum of their own as well. They allowed the US to setup bases on the assumption that having US bases guarantees their security. Ironically, that has made them the target of attacks and through its action, US has conveyed what it thinks of their partnership - second class compared to the partnership with Israel. They were stupid to not ask the US after 3 years of the Ukraine war how they will be protected against exactly the kind of attacks that Iran made. They will be stupid to make themselves a target again. If not, expect the US to exit most Gulf bases with a "honorable discharge" within 2 years.

Trump's idea of war is like the card game where players deal cards, then simultaneously reveal their topmost cards, and whoever has the higher card wins. If tied, they reveal the next topmost card until one wins. Hence he keeps saying "We have the biggest baddest (?) military in the world, we have won the war!" - no fighting necessary. Iran is not allowing him to have that easy a fight.

If Iran is required to make concessions to enable Trump to claim victory, it is going to demand Israel signing the NPT (Pape), removal of all US sanctions and a continuing civilian nuclear program. This is the best case for Iran which may actually extract more than what they conceded during the JCPOA. Not sure what the worst case could be - which depends on how far US is willing to go.

[Vayutuvan]

So the "US Deep State" motive is to get a maximum return on their investments and that's the end game they are after. Outstanding.

Why are you surprised? Economic interests always outweigh anything else. The American Civil War itself was a result of economic interests trumping human rights.

[A_Gupta]

If you read online summaries of JCPOA, they invariably omit this:

"Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons".


They also never mention this motivation for the US to eventually walk out of the agreement:

"Eight years after Adoption Day or when the IAEA has reached the Broader Conclusion that all nuclear material in Iran remains in peaceful activities, whichever is earlier, the United States will seek such legislative action as may be appropriate to terminate, or modify to effectuate the termination of, the sanctions specified in Annex II on the acquisition of nuclear-related commodities and services for nuclear activities contemplated in this JCPOA, to be consistent with the U.S. approach to other non-nuclear-weapon states under the NPT."

This above meant that Iran had to implement the Additional Protocol; and Trump walked out of the agreement a year after Iran started. (Note that Iran had previously implemented the protocol 2003-2006, after the IAEA Board of Governors referred Iran’s nuclear file to the UN Security Council, because of Iran's lack of transparency.)

[uddu]

https://x.com/i/status/2045532596323696887
@sidhant
India condemns the killing of French UN peacekeeper in southern Lebanon; Asks Lebanon govt to "urgently investigate this attack, bring its perpetrators to justice"

[uddu]

There seems to be crack in the Iranians leadership and the IRGC. IRGC is asserting itself. After the Jihadi's takeover the govt and democracy was a dummy for show govt. A La Pakistan Shia version.
Let's let the Iranian Navy vessel in Kochi on behalf of the Iranian Govt go and fight the IRGC.

[A_Gupta]

The Gulf countries are in a conundrum of their own as well. They allowed the US to setup bases on the assumption that having US bases guarantees their security. Ironically, that has made them the target of attacks and through its action, US has conveyed what it thinks of their partnership - second class compared to the partnership with Israel. They were stupid to not ask the US after 3 years of the Ukraine war how they will be protected against exactly the kind of attacks that Iran made. They will be stupid to make themselves a target again. If not, expect the US to exit most Gulf bases with a "honorable discharge" within 2 years.

The Gulf countries are not politically united; and the native Arab population of the GCC is approximately 18.5 million (per AI). This is facing 92 million of Iran. What will they do? Ally themselves with Israel? Do they want Türkiye to be their security provider? Pakistan?