Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

[vimal]

Pakistan’s Cotton Production Falls By an Alarming 37%

Pakistan’s cotton output decreased by over 37 percent year-on-year (YoY), according to the latest fortnightly data released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginner’s Association (PCGA) on Tuesday. Total cotton arrivals in Pakistan slid to 4.61 million bales as of January 1, 2023, compared to 7.347 million bales in the corresponding period last year, recording a difference of 2.73 million bales and a drop of 37.25 percent.

37% sounds too low. 72% seems more apt.

[Dilbu]

Bleak times ahead for Pakistan’s manufacturing sector

Pakistan’s manufacturing sector is set for a rough ride, as dozens of companies have already announced either a temporary shutdown or rolling back of operations.

Since December alone, at least 14 listed companies have announced scaling back or shutting down operations citing varying reasons including an inability to obtain Letters of Credit (LCs), supply chain disruptions, inventory shortages. drop in demand and energy shortage.

A brokerage house already painted a grim picture of Pakistan’s economic growth this fiscal year with floods only adding to the bleak outlook.

Meanwhile, a market expert said the situation is expected to remain gloomy in the coming months, with negative growth expected in the industrial sector.

[Manish_P]

Pakistan’s Cotton Production Falls By an Alarming 37%

37% sounds too low. 72% seems more apt.

Vimal ji, decline in punjab 28%, decline in sindh 47%. add the two and you have 75%

see how you can use madarssa maths with lahori logic to get sialkoti statistics. All halal onleee

[vimal]

^^ Marhabba Marhabba, bahuut khus hua.

[Dilbu]

Cement crumbles against economy

LAHORE: Sales of Pakistan’s cement industry fell considerably in the July- Dec 2022 period owing to a slump caused by the floods and economic uncertainty in the country.

According to data released by the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA), the industry recorded total despatches (domestic and exports) of 21.764 million tonnes during the first six months of current fiscal year, that is 20.73% lower than 27.456 million tonnes despatched during the corresponding period of the last fiscal year.

Domestic sales during this period were 20.030 million tonnes against 24.065 million tonnes in the same period last year, showing a decline of 16.77%.

Export despatches were also down by 48.86%, dropping to 1.734 million tonnes during the first six months of the current fiscal year. During the same period last year, exports hit 3.391 million tonnes.

[chetak]

37% sounds too low. 72% seems more apt.

Vimal ji, decline in punjab 28%, decline in sindh 47%. add the two and you have 75%

see how you can use madarssa maths with lahori logic to get sialkoti statistics. All halal onleee

A tad less glee Manish ji

subhuman species though the pakis undoubtedly are, and justified schadenfreude apart, we must show a little compassion (just a smidgen will suffice for the salwar kameezed buggers),

varna लोग क्या कहेंगे, no...

[Manish_P]

...

A tad less glee Manish ji

subhuman species though the pakis undoubtedly are, and justified schadenfreude apart, we must show a little compassion (just a smidgen will suffice for the salwar kameezed buggers),

varna लोग क्या कहेंगे, no...

But i am just a small-hearted SDRE Chetak ji. Whatever little compassion i have, i have to keep for the indian pakis no.. shaheen bagh yesterday, haldwani today, xyz tomorrow.. Not to forget the poor rohingyas. Dil hai chotta sa...

[Dilbu]

State Bank reserves deplete to $5.6bn

KARACHI: State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign exchange reserves hit an eight-year low at $5.576 billion during the week ended on Dec 30, 2022.

Despite fast dwindling SBP reserves, Finance Minis­ter Ishaq Dar is still hopeful about reverting the situation with expected financial help promised by the friendly countries, but nothing has been realised so far.

During the week the SBP foreign exchange reserves saw an outflow of $245 million for external debt repayments.

This massive decline left no space for the government to pay back its foreign debts without borrowing more from friendly countries.

The SBP’s reserves holdings are only enough for imports of three weeks.

The country’s total foreign exchange reserves during the week were $11.4bn including $5.8bn of commercial banks.

The situation is alarming as foreign banks have been charging heavily for the opening of Letters of Credit while local banks are restricted by the SBP due to a severe shortage of dollars.

[mody]

The pakis were supposed to pay back $1 Billion in this week. Have they managed to roll the debts over? No news about the payments having been made. A $1 Billion repayment would almost brake the pigs back.

[Dilbu]

The mangoes are really facing the brunt of it all.
Shortage of ghee, cooking oil looms

KARACHI: With rising prices of wheat flour and chicken already hitting most household budgets, two more staples — ghee and cooking oil — are also going to be short in supply as well as costlier ahead of the holy month of Ramazan if corrective measures are not taken immediately, it emerged on Thursday.

Producers are fast running out of palm oil, soybean oil and sunflower following banks’ reluctance in opening the letters of credit (LCs) and retiring documents for clearance of goods despite the fact that these raw materials were listed as essential items by the State Bank on Dec 27, 2022.

Lifting of 358,000 tonnes of edible oil from the Customs Bonded Warehouses has been suspended as banks are turning down requests for opening of LCs and retirement of documents.

Fears of healthcare crisis mount amid import restrictions

ISLAMABAD: The Heal­thcare Devices Association (HDA) has warned the relevant authorities of disruption of medical and surgical treatment facilities across the country after the recent restriction making registration with the Drug Regula­tory Authority of Pakistan (Drap) mandatory for the import of medical and surgical equipment.

“Drap has not been able to make decisions on most of the registration applicati­ons submitted over the past several years and so far, only about 3,000 applicati­ons have been dealt with, while the number of medical items used in Pakistan are more than 300,000. Drap exten­d­ed the time for registration through SRO 526 till Dece­mber 31, 2022, after which all unregistered medical devices and laboratory tests cannot be impor­ted legally and sold from Jan­uary 1, 2023,” said senior vice chairman of the association Adnan Ahmed Siddiqui.

Wheat in Sindh spikes to Rs135 per kg, marching towards loot, snatching

January 05, 2023 (MLN): Amidst the flood-led destruction in Sindh’s agriculture sector, the shortage of wheat and inflationary pressure has spiked the price of Wheat in the open market to Rs135 per kilogram (kg). However, in December 2022, the staple was available at Rs95 per kg.

Wheat is the basic staple item that is used across all income classes. Thus, the surging prices have made it unaffordable for the poor people.

This extreme surge in the price of the basic staple is threatening the law-and-order situation in the province as the flour millers foresee loot and snatching of flour in days to come.

Meanwhile, the Chakki flour reached Rs160 per kg compared to Rs120 per kg in December 2022.

In Punjab, wheat price in the open market clocked in at Rs120 per kg

[RajaRudra]

Every 10 years the land of pure will go through some economic turmoil and is usually getting out with one or the other help. Hoping this time, things will be different. Even if we succeed in capturing few kms during their turmoil its worthwhile psychological fear factor for them.

[Anujan]

They are ready for a full-scale GUBO to IMF. Shehbaz Sharif spoke to IMF director and did a downhill Ski.

Next week will be interesting.

[vimal]

Can we send them some wheat from FCI godown in exchange for POK? Only condition being that POK comes without any Pakis.

[ricky_v]

Can we send them some wheat from FCI godown in exchange for POK? Only condition being that POK comes without any Pakis.

why bother, after hunger makes them literally cannibalise their population, we can stroll in and take the land. Besides, a portion of FCI's storage is vitally reserved for the annual appeasement of the rain gods

[partha]

Can we send them some wheat from FCI godown in exchange for POK? Only condition being that POK comes without any Pakis.

why bother, after hunger makes them literally cannibalise their population, we can stroll in and take the land. Besides, a portion of FCI's storage is vitally reserved for the annual appeasement of the rain gods

Some portion also reserved for rats I think.

Army chief is begging in Saudi.

Shahbaz Shariff is pleading with Chinese over the phone. Usually this happens in person. Either due to covid situation in China or China not being inclined to host the PM in person, Shahbaz Shariff had to settle for a phone call. Usual references to iron brothers, Arabian sea depth, Himalayan heights, honey were missing so it was purely a call to beg for funds.

Both Saudi and China have not yielded I guess so the PM called the IMF chief and has issued a statement that IMF delegation will visit in "2-3 days" which means the visit will not likely happen.

Indirect attempts to send feelers to India have also been made with no result. I will not be surprised if Pakis make a formal request soon to India to at least import food to cool down inflation. Expect resident Pakis in India to start a campaign to support Pak reach out and pressurize GoI to help Pakistan.

[partha]

Not looking good - https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/10278 ... -virtually

IMF chief declines to travel to Geneva on PM's invitation, ready to attend moot virtually
Kristalina Georgieva says as IMF board meetings had been prefixed for Jan 9-10, “she will only be able to join conference virtually”

[Anujan]

Meanwhile

https://www.dawn.com/news/1730341/pakis ... orgiveness

Pakistan should seek forgiveness of principal and interest on the debt extended by China, the Paris Club and bilateral and multilateral lenders, said the Pakistan Business Council (PBC) on Friday

They could ask for forgiveness after refusing to pay. It's also called a default.

The PBC also called for limiting travel for Hajj, Umrah and pilgrimages to Iran, Iraq and Syria to save an estimated $1bn.

I declare PBC as bull cutlet.

Why are fourfathers not helping? Have they figured out that they are never getting their money back ?

[Thakur_B]

Not looking good - https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/10278 ... -virtually

IMF chief declines to travel to Geneva on PM's invitation, ready to attend moot virtually
Kristalina Georgieva says as IMF board meetings had been prefixed for Jan 9-10, “she will only be able to join conference virtually”

What ij this virtual Moot (मूत), hain ji?

[vimal]

Anyone against hajj is against the will of the most benevolent, most merciful and needs to be rightfully punished. Call Ola call Uber.

[Anujan]

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2394554/pm ... -imf-talks

PM in last-gasp bid to revive IMF talks

With Pakistan’s official foreign currency reserves slipping to a dangerous level of $4.5 billion because of major debt repayments, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has requested the International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director to immediately send over a team to the country to start review negotiations for the next tranche of its loan.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar would leave for Geneva along with PM Shehbaz and meet IMF officials on the sidelines of a conference there. The conference has now been lowered to a climate resilience event from a donors’ conference because of lack of interest by major players.

If Pakistan defaults, I am starting a petition for Bharat Ratna for Dar.

[Manish_P]

If Pakistan defaults, I am starting a petition for Bharat Ratna for Dar.

hain.. and what about RAA-agent-in-chief Immy. Will he been given award under the cover? Or post-lamp-post?

[Manish_P]

Not looking good - https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/10278 ... -virtually

What ij this virtual Moot (मूत), hain ji?

Looks like the gori madam is seriously worried that the pakis will hold her hostage

The bulgarians have a history with the ottomans and think they can identify the traits in the Pakis as well..

[Manish_P]

Looks like the resident NaPakis don't trust this non-resident NaPaki

New twist in Pakistan-owned Washington property sale as govt considers rebidding

The process for the sale of a Pakistan embassy property in Washington took a new twist as sources privy to the matter said that the government is considering rebidding for the state-owned building despite already receiving the highest bid.

Pakistani businessman Shahal Khan made the highest bid of $6.8 million to purchase the old chancery building on R Street in northwest Washington DC, it emerged earlier this week.

However, sources said that Khan still awaits a response from the government to finalise the deal.

The sources said that the government is avoiding contact with the highest bidder.

[Lisa]

This story is a fib. Any self respecting puki general worth his salt could buy this building with pocket change! $6.8 million, highest bid, rebidding, ...................etc

[chetak]

This story is a fib. Any self respecting puki general worth his salt could buy this building with pocket change! $6.8 million, highest bid, rebidding, ...................etc

please understand Lisa ji


track two negotiations are ongoing for the commi$$ion.

[Neela]

@NepCorres
https://twitter.com/NepCorres/status/16 ... 3110607877
BIG BREAKING
Riots in #Islamabad and several parts of #Pakistan due to extreme shortage of Food. Atleast three people reported dead due to stampede in a food loot.
While people are queueing for basic goods, a lavish lunch was hosted at the recent NSC meet on 02 Jan 23

Replying to
@NepCorres
https://twitter.com/NepCorres/status/16 ... 8040960007
#Pakistan is facing a shortage of 4.5 M tonnes of wheat. Onion price is 220 per kg, Petrol is at 225 per litre and a dozen eggs for 290.
Violent country wide riots by #hungry citizens may erupt anytime. Pak army's lavish lifestyle is top subject of discussion around.

Pakistan in Catostrophe
https://twitter.com/NepCorres/status/16 ... 5903438848
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader Asad Uamr said on Saturday #Pakistan was on the verge of economic default. Reserves have fallen from $16.4 billion to only $4.5B

[bharathp]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1611368611678937088

how to embed a teeter video?
above video shows: Pak factories not getting orders because folks placing orders know factories dont have $$ to import raw material. not even 500$ is being released now by SBP

[CalvinH]

As Paki Awam is dying on the streets fighting for food ex ISI chief has organized a lavish wedding for his Daughter.

[RCase]

Not looking good - https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/10278 ... -virtually

What ij this virtual Moot (मूत), hain ji?

It should be read as (मुठ). That is why she decided to attend virtually!

[bharathp]

also:

“I asked her to send an IMF team for the completion of the pending 9th review of the programme so that the next loan tranche is released. She assured that the mission will visit [Pakistan] in the next two to three days,” Shehbaz had said.

However, in its statement to the media, the IMF spokesperson said that the IMF "delegation is expected to meet with Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on the sidelines of the Geneva conference to discuss outstanding issues and the path forward”.

removed the link to a tsp news. you can search for "imf-rejects-pakistans-claim-md-initiated-telephone-call" on googlayanamaha

the Pakhanistaniat is coming home to roost me thinks - its about to reach an inflection point

[isubodh]

the Pakhanistaniat is coming home to roost me thinks - its about to reach an inflection point

How do we make the most of this ? Just watching them suffer is not enough.

[Neela]

tribune.com.pk
IMF rejects Pakistan’s claim MD initiated telephone call

ISLAMABAD:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Sunday said that a call between Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took place on the request of the PM - a statement that indicates Islamabad has not refrained from doing politics despite nearing default.

“The call took place in response to a request by the Prime Minister of Pakistan to discuss the International Conference on resilient Pakistan,” Esther Perez, the resident representative of the IMF confirmed to The Express Tribune.

It is pertinent to note that on Friday an official handout released by the PM’s Office after his speech at the Hazara Electric Supply Company (HAZECO)'s inauguration ceremony had read that “the IMF managing director called premier Shehbaz on the phone.”

It seems that the government is not yet ready to mend its ways as it makes questionable claims of strength despite risking sovereign default with only $4.5 billion foreign exchange reserves in hand.

The remaining reserves are enough to finance only three weeks of imports. Pakistan’s three months (January-March) debt repayments stand at $8.5 billion. This includes $2 billion to the UAE which the government is trying to get a rollover for.

$4.5B in reserves vs $8.5B in dues in Q1/23. And they have to keep Petrol stations running and buy any critical spares for power plants.

Maybe this time Pakis have played all their cards. Money isnt coming from anywhere. Imagine what Saudis, UAE, Qataris would be thinking - Pakis have been using them in their press meets and rallies and claiming they will lend money . But they really know that Pakis will not be able to pay them back if they lend more. I mean, if you are a lender, you would assess the liabilities of the receiver wouldnt you?

The downward spiral will hopefully accelerate from here on.
May all the evil and adharma descend into these Asuric lands. Death, starvation, murder, theft, loot, destruction, fratricide, martial law, clan fighting - may they all arrive at the same time . I really want my eyes to feast on the absolute chaos ....we owe it to those Hindus we werent able to save over the last 800 years in these lands.

[vimal]

It’s ok Pakis can always do the hijra back to their land of forefathers across the deserts of Arabia.

[Manish_P]

Need to ensure our walls are all well fortified and the gates properly locked.

Two critical border states are with the opposition.

[Nsmith]

The RAPEs are getting desperate....

A friend who had retired about 10-odd years ago told me recently that he has had to come out of retirement and look for work opportunities as inflation over the last few years has eroded his savings to the point where his retirement plans are no longer tenable. He realises that even though he is willing to start at a reasonable salary, much lower than the one he was drawing when he retired, finding a job at his age will be very hard. But he does not have much of an option. He has also had to tell his children that where previously he was willing to fund even their graduate studies, he can now only support them during their undergraduate course.

But what is new here, and this I have come across recently, is that even fairly well-settled business families have been either moving assets and businesses out of Pakistan or are planning to do so. Some of the families that run the largest conglomerates in the country have also been moving people and assets. The older generation might still be here but the next generation is all settled abroad and have other citizenships. A lot of money has been moved or is in the process of being moved.

The most difficult part of this conversation is that people are getting negative about the future. Difficult times have been experienced before too, but people have always felt that the future would be better; this time the same sense about the future is not there.

Guess it helps that anyone who's anyone in pukistan has a Canadian or UK passport and is using all means possible to move their dollars (earned, I'm sure via corruption and Unkil's largesse) out of a sinking ship. No wonder their reserves are at all time lows

https://www.dawn.com/news/1730163/up-the-creek

[sanjaykumar]

It is remarkable how fast Pakistan is drowning, once the Americans pulled out. All hail America.

[fanne]

You are missing the big picture. It is to hit India with refugees. The sc milord (I guess he was sakshpere incarnate in preciius life), Raul gandi, aap all are ready to welcome that and fukc India.
Be careful what you wish for. It is a color revolution with a twist, where we do not have much of leverage and forced to face the consequence of it.

[sanjaykumar]

They are welcome in Panjab, much similarity. It is not as big a sh!thole, but getting there.

[VKumar]

Still not too late to construct a wall to keep out the hordes of pakis soon rushing into India.

[Neela]

Now we dont want them rabid dogs and the associated crimes with it do we.

Good time to needle Pak imo. Id want them to bleed more and burn some precious cash . Wear the F16s a bit. Few mini-skirmishes here are there and thats a few 10s of millions lost.

Should be enough to raise their echandee and not crawl into enemy lands.