Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 08 Dec 2013 10:26

LokeshC wrote: I believe AAP will behave exactly like CON party in a matter of an year or two in power.

I don't believe this will happen. AAP's idealism is its own enemy and they will be dumped unceremoniously if any establishment people come in.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 08 Dec 2013 10:26

NDTV is showing CHG Leads as Cong 45/ BJP 44

archan · Post by **archan** » 08 Dec 2013 10:27

SaiK wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:How are votes being counted? What is the kind of output from the EVMs?
by daboing result button

That does not help his question. If result button gives the result in 1 moment, what are these trends for?

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 08 Dec 2013 10:27

Farzi leading by 4500

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 08 Dec 2013 10:28

Are they really idealistic? My intuition says that they are opportunistic.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2013 10:29

Financial Express also says same. No wins for congress means paralysis

link

Sunday's Assembly polls, results are set to have a direct bearing on the ongoing Winter Session of Parliament. If the scoreline is 4-0 (excluding Mizoram) in favour of the BJP, as predicted by the exit polls, the remaining part of the session is set to become a mere ritualistic affair, with the government abandoning all contentious legislation. It will also ignore the BJP's demand for extending the session, sources said.

With a Congress washout seen as an indicator for 2014, the entire decision-making process may grind to a halt about five months ahead of General elections.

While Congress general secretary Digvijaya Singh Saturday rejected any link between the results of Assembly and parliamentary polls, citing past examples, there is palpable unease in the party. A sweep in these elections could make Narendra Modi an unstoppable force.

These elections were virtually a semi-final contest between Modi and Rahul Gandhi, with the two leading as well as planning their party campaigns. If Modi put his foot down to get Vijay Goel replaced by Harsh Vardhan in Delhi, Rahul reduced Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot to playing his shadow in a number of rallies addressed by him, as a result of which the CM himself could not canvass for most of the party candidates.

Still, as the countdown began to Sunday morning, the Congress continued to nurse hopes of capturing Chhattisgarh and to fancy its chances in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan — as per the feedback given to Congress president Sonia Gandhi by party functionaries. In Delhi, where the Aam Aadmi Party performance holds the key, the Congress took heart from an online survey conducted by it post-exit polls that gave the party 31 seats in the 70-member state Assembly.

"We are hoping for the best and prepared for the worst," an AICC general secretary in charge of one of the states going to polls told The Sunday Express.

The despondency in the party was, nonetheless, evident, with some party leaders from Rajasthan already lobbying for the post of leader of the Opposition even as a whisper campaign against Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit gathered pace.

The top party leadership, however, seemed determined to keep all thoughts about poll results at bay. On Friday evening, the Congress Working Committee met to condole Nelson Mandela's death and no words were exchanged about the polls. Prime Minister later stayed back for a word with Sonia but it was also to discuss who would be sent for Mandela's funeral.

Even as the BJP camp was in a celebratory mood, the party is not putting its guard down and is learnt to have started touching base with potential winners among Independents in Rajasthan and Delhi. If it registers resounding victories, as predicted by the exit polls, the BJP may harden its stand on contentious legislations.

A 4-0 result may also settle the debate in the party once and all on Modi. However, any mixed or adverse result would give fresh boost to his detractors.

Among the jittery Congress allies, the NCP was the first to concede that it was "worried" about the results having a bearing on the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. "These results have become more important because Lok Sabha elections are so close. It will certainly have an impact on general elections in terms of the momentum and also the morale of party workers. It may give a boost to Modi too," Union minister of state and senior NCP leader Tariq Anwar said. He, however, qualified his remarks by saying that if the AAP manages to get 17-18 seats, it would be an indication of "no Modi wave".

Trying to look at the bright side, Anwar added: "As an alliance partner, we are naturally worried about the results but it will also give us an opportunity to rectify our mistakes. Having said that, it is also a fact that in the past the party that won Assembly elections did not necessarily won the subsequent Lok Sabha elections."

Asked if the issue of "leadership" and its perceived lack in the UPA dispensation may have gone to the BJP's advantage, he said, "It is not just the leadership issue. We could not publicise even the good works of this government while the opposition propaganda about drawbacks and weaknesses in the UPA succeeded."

Emphasising his point that the Assembly results have no bearing on the Lok Sabha polls, Digvijaya said: "In November 2003, the BJP won three out of four states and yet lost in the national elections. In the 1998 parliamentary elections, the Congress did not do too well in Madhya Pradesh, but in November the Congress won the state Assembly elections. Issues are quite different. So, let's not read too much into these results."

"Even if we get a wake-up call now, it's fine. We will at least have about six months to set our house in order," said a Congress MP from Uttar Pradesh.

The Assembly election results might also have implications for the process of transition of power in the party. While Sonia has virtually handed over the reins to son Rahul and let him entirely run the show in the Assembly elections, a section of Congressmen believe that a washout could force her to be pro-active again to steer the party through the next general elections.

I think INC dirty tricks will do something drastic to their own to get sympathy.

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 08 Dec 2013 10:30

AAP are not idealistic. Kejri is a shrewd man and hijacked ANna campaign and rode the wave (as someone mentioned above)

I just hope CHG does not go "shut-down-on-Sunday" (Mizoram way). looks like it might be 2-2 after all

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Dec 2013 10:30

VikramS wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:How are votes being counted? What is the kind of output from the EVMs?
Booth by Booth according to @buzzindelhi

http://delhideservesbetter.org/ is saying 36 for BJP+ in Delhi.

They are showing 34 now.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 08 Dec 2013 10:30

archan wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:How are votes being counted? What is the kind of output from the EVMs?
That does not help his question. If result button gives the result in 1 moment, what are these trends for?

The display system of the control unit shows the total number of votes polled in a polling station and the candidate-wise votes polled in the machine when the ‘result’ button is pressed by the counting staff in the presence of counting agents at the counting centre. The control unit can also detect any physical tampering made with the connecting cable and indicate the same in the display unit.http://pib.nic.in/elections2009/volume1/chap-39.pdf

still will not answer his question..

who is aggregating all these counts?

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 08 Dec 2013 10:31

CGH Bilaspur-Korba industrial districts in firm hands of Congress, while the BJP is the one viewed as pro-industrial!

niran · Post by **niran** » 08 Dec 2013 10:31

CG
BJP==48
Cong==37
BSP==1
IND==1
out of 87

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2013 10:32

niran wrote:CG
BJP==49
Cong==35
BSP==1
IND==1
out of 86 seats.

niran where from these numbers?

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Dec 2013 10:33

Malayalam channels are showing BJP 48 CON 38 in CHG.

niran · Post by **niran** » 08 Dec 2013 10:33

ramana wrote:
niran wrote:CG
BJP==49
Cong==35
BSP==1
IND==1
out of 86 seats.
niran where from these numbers?

here

Vipin_Upadhyay · Post by **Vipin_Upadhyay** » 08 Dec 2013 10:35

final push by NaMo is showing the results in CG.

looks like Doctor Saab will just manage through despite Maoist-EJ, Jogi factor.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 08 Dec 2013 10:35

btw, if people are thinking our EVMs are fail safe tamper proof, they are wrong... it is not.. why this partial count of only 3840 votes per EVM?

they have to completely revamp EVM process.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2013 10:36

They are in line with niran's data

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 08 Dec 2013 10:37

what happens if both parties get exactly 45 seats in chatisgarh ?

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 08 Dec 2013 10:37

NDTV now showing BJP at 35???

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 08 Dec 2013 10:38

Party with the deeper pocket (CON) will try to poach and form govt.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Dec 2013 10:38

NIC (niran's link) is likely the most updated src. other media must be taking feeds from that but are few seats behind in updating.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 08 Dec 2013 10:39

from niran's link, things are looking different then.. matrimc.. it was 45-45 for just one refresh on toilet..it changed after that

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2013 10:40

niran's link is awesome. It gives granular data.

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 08 Dec 2013 10:40

con party at 7 in dilli..........i had to double check.....lol

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 08 Dec 2013 10:40

twitter-

3.47 NOTA in C'garh is huge:((( when only 0.25% diff between 1st and 2nd party in state

holy cr@p. did ajit jogi with his coments scare people into pressing nota.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 08 Dec 2013 10:40

Delhi may be a BJP government but Delhi folks have brought in a new player.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 08 Dec 2013 10:41

Whatever the ding dongs may be, but at this state it is a 4-0 for BJP

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 08 Dec 2013 10:42

NIC/Doordarshan is much better than that NDTV carp.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Dec 2013 10:42

I have no idea why NDTV is showing 45-44 in favour of CON while NIC is saying 46-40 in favour of BJP for CHG.

niran · Post by **niran** » 08 Dec 2013 10:42

it is good ole DD saar, and it is in excel, don't ye all love excel?
in Dilli the sindhi corlnel is leading from the start and one SAD both are pro BJP
so Dr. harsh will form gobermound

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 08 Dec 2013 10:43

EVM Magic in CG. NOTA is 3.45% vote share difference might be 0.25%

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 08 Dec 2013 10:43

http://eciresults.nic.in/ is pathetic!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2013 10:44

muraliravi, fanne et al do a quality check on poll prediction methods using the NIC/doordarshan link.

dilbu, NDTV is a DIEhard supporter of DIEnasty.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 08 Dec 2013 10:44

matrimc.. toilet is back on 45-45

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 08 Dec 2013 10:45

which is niran link?

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Dec 2013 10:46

BJP will lose 4-0 onlee.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2013 10:46

Sita kaun?

http://164.100.38.38/election/#

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Dec 2013 10:47

kapilrdave wrote: They are still behind bjp. And delhi is not the only state where the election is held. The real verdict is given in RJ and MP. Delhi is the example of confused electorate at best.

You were talking about AAP. And AAP is fighting only in Delhi where it has done very well, it is right now at #2. There is every reason for them to be exuberant. Some polls indicated, they will be #3. So it is darn good for them.

Ofcourse, these are leads. Not results.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Dec 2013 10:47

WTF NDTV says 45-45 in CHG. Bhat happens now hainji?

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 08 Dec 2013 10:48

SaiK wrote:http://eciresults.nic.in/ is pathetic!

I went there on your advise

no go.