Bharat Rakshak

kit wrote:The upcoming Chinese economic collapse will force the CCCP to resort to military adventurism in Taiwan and the Himalayas

Yes, that has historically been the case. This time, I doubt it because it will be a total disaster for the CCP and the PLA. Following reasons are given:

1) They already "shot their wad" having to deploy in the Himalayas two years ago in fear of Pak losing GB. That has not turned out well at all for the PLA, to say the least. Now they have ended up facing a much stronger Indian Army.

2) The population is restive and mentally strained (under perpetual zero-covid lockdowns) and in no mood or condition for a war effort.

3) The PLA is composed of physically unfit and poorly trained "only child" characters. The PLA is not a war machine, it is mainly an instrument for threats and bullying. That will not work with India nor with Taiwan.

4) PLA weapons will likely cause damage in India and Taiwan, but they will lose territory in the Himalayas and their southern coastal cities will be wrecked. If USA also steps in militarily in the Pacific, its pretty much game over for the PLA, and probably for the CCP in a few years.

KL Dubey wrote:

kit wrote:The upcoming Chinese economic collapse will force the CCCP to resort to military adventurism in Taiwan and the Himalayas

If USA also steps in militarily in the Pacific, its pretty much game over for the PLA, and probably for the CCP in a few years.

This is what US wants them to think, India "taking care" of their eastern front while US does their western seaboard , whether reality is open to guess !

hnair wrote:

yensoy wrote: Actually I couldn't find any non-Indian references to this news but it is spreading a little although Newsweek has debunked the story now.

Since it is not reported in western media and only in Indian media, it fails your credibility test and hence a ROTFL emoji? Maybe West wants zero disruption in their supply chains until the situation is managed by Chinese rulers and suppressed it? How many headlines do we see of killings in Tibet or Xinjiang everyday in western press?

Newsweek link you posted has no solid debunking of the fact that China got tanks out for intimidation of civilians outside a bank. They are quoting a single local CCP drone/vlogger to claim it is routine exercise that just stopped near a bank for chai-biskoot

I recall this is the second time recently, when you had been apologetic about such things pertaining to both the taller-friends, first was when many posters including me pointed out that Pervez Hoodbhoy is a low class India hater while you claimed he is a big deal physicist etc and is fun to watch. Concerning pattern.

I have also noted may tines with concern this particular poster as having sympathetic leanings to porks and pork eaters.

Far fetched question but I was studying the history of Taiwan and it's relationship to Japan. Unlike other Chinese diaspora, the Taiwanese have some incredible qualities of work ethic, tradition, family, cleanliness and enterprise. They are very similar to the Japanese in a certain regard. Then I realized that Japan actually oversaw Taiwan for over 50-60 years and tried to make it their model colony in terms of public works and development. Given the similarities, why would Taiwan not become a protectorate of Japan. It would accord them a lot of benefits and protections. A strong alliance in the South China sea is very important for defanging these guys.

Jarita wrote:Far fetched question but I was studying the history of Taiwan and it's relationship to Japan. Unlike other Chinese diaspora, the Taiwanese have some incredible qualities of work ethic, tradition, family, cleanliness and enterprise. They are very similar to the Japanese in a certain regard. Then I realized that Japan actually oversaw Taiwan for over 50-60 years and tried to make it their model colony in terms of public works and development. Given the similarities, why would Taiwan not become a protectorate of Japan. It would accord them a lot of benefits and protections. A strong alliance in the South China sea is very important for defanging these guys.

Interesting you say that., Japan has so far gone to say any threat to Taiwan's sovereignty is a direct threat to theirs as well. Abe was especially keen to promote QUAD in Taiwan's defence. It is not America but Japan who is likely to intervene if push comes to shove. All their beefing up their "defence force" and shedding of shackles should be directly seen in this way.

China has but an increasingly smaller window of opportunity for taking over Taiwan militarily

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... wan-drills
China Cancels Japan Meeting Over G-7 Criticism of Taiwan Drills
Bloomberg News, August 4, 2022
China said it called off a face-to-face meeting between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Japanese counterpart over a G-7 statement expressing concern about Beijing’s “threatening actions” around Taiwan in the wake of a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
The Chinese side had earlier announced the meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, which had been expected as early as Thursday on the sidelines of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting in Cambodia. Pelosi is set to have talks in Tokyo on Friday with senior Japanese lawmakers.
The statement released by the foreign ministers of the Group of Seven wealthy democracies on Wednesday was “irresponsible,” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters. In it, the group said there was “no justification to use a visit as pretext for aggressive military activity in the Taiwan Strait.”
Hayashi on Tuesday declined to comment on Pelosi’s trip, saying only in general it was extremely important for the international community that the US and China have stable ties. Tokyo subsequently lodged a protest over Chinese military drills around Taiwan, some of which were set to be held in what Japan considers its exclusive economic zone close to its southwestern-most islands.
.....
Gautam

Japan and Taiwan are both advanced countries. What if thesr countries decided yo go nuclear?

Jarita wrote:Far fetched question but I was studying the history of Taiwan and it's relationship to Japan. Unlike other Chinese diaspora, the Taiwanese have some incredible qualities of work ethic, tradition, family, cleanliness and enterprise. They are very similar to the Japanese in a certain regard. Then I realized that Japan actually oversaw Taiwan for over 50-60 years and tried to make it their model colony in terms of public works and development. Given the similarities, why would Taiwan not become a protectorate of Japan. It would accord them a lot of benefits and protections. A strong alliance in the South China sea is very important for defanging these guys.

Very Japanese like in societal behavior as well, and Japanese firms have a huge presence in Taiwan. Many Japanese speakers in Taiwan as well.

rsingh wrote:Japan and Taiwan are both advanced countries. What if thesr countries decided yo go nuclear?

I highly doubt if Taiwan could at such short notice but Japan can. However, it depends on the parameters of the relationship they establish with Taiwan. As I said, Taiwan is a hybrid Chinese/ Japanese culture much as China would like to huff and puff that everything is theirs. It is in Japans best interests to make it a protectorate and see any threat to Taiwan as a threat to itself.

rsingh wrote:Japan and Taiwan are both advanced countries. What if thesr countries decided yo go nuclear?

Japan certainly can. It has a huge stockpile of Pu and resources and industry to make n-weapons. But, to get to a stage where a command & control is setup, missiles or planes are designed to carry the warhead, strategic forces are setup and trained etc. will take a decade or more at the least, even for Japan. More than that, Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution has to be extensively altered for which the Japanese populace must agree. They still call their military 'Self Defence Forces'. Japan has just decided to reach 2% of GDP for military expenditure.

SSridhar wrote:

rsingh wrote:Japan and Taiwan are both advanced countries. What if thesr countries decided yo go nuclear?

Japan certainly can. It has a huge stockpile of Pu and resources and industry to make n-weapons. But, to get to a stage where a command & control is setup, missiles or planes are designed to carry the warhead, strategic forces are setup and trained etc. will take a decade or more at the least, even for Japan. More than that, Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution has to be extensively altered for which the Japanese populace must agree. They still call their military 'Self Defence Forces'. Japan has just decided to reach 2% of GDP for military expenditure.

How come jahil Bakis were able to established command and control and it will be difficult for hi fi Japanese. Constitution are to serve country. It is ofno use if there is no country. I am expecting of some high level meeting between Australia and Japan and some small earthquakes in deep Australian wasteland.

Pakis got Chinese nukes with Uncle looking the other way, it was after Soviet pull out from Afghanistan, Paki nukes were meant to make India surrender Kashmir, things were different 33 years back.

US disrobing Emperor Xi one garment at a time?

USD 128B for Fabs, asks ASML to not ship to China.
The US is decisively moving to make chip fabrication knowhow beyond the grasp of the CCP with a series of steps. Watch to understand the importance of Semiconductor Fabs for a country. How long before people will say Emperor Xi is not wearing any clothes?



Fabs need to transplanted elsewhere, with India's "atma nirbhar" program, will India be able to not only develop but also secure its tech gains. The semiconductor scene in Taiwan, needs to hedge itself and perhaps move to India.

Samsung has a fab in china, Hynix (which bought intel fab in china) will be impacted by ASML ban on china.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IESuYo8S34A
Interesting bits of info by Elmer Yuen about China. Not sure how much of this is true!

RCase wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IESuYo8S34A
Interesting bits of info by Elmer Yuen about China. Not sure how much of this is true!

very interesting tidbits:
- China population is only 1B. and in ten years it will 600M only.
- China owns US treasury of $1T but US investors/funds have invested/loaned $4T. money has stopped coming into the Ponzi schemes. If US pulls out money, Chinese economy can collapse.

I don't understand the logic of chinese picking up fight with the very countries they depend on for survival. Even the 7nm chip technology that china claims uses lithographic machines and other components from USA/Japan. And SMIC got this far only because the co-CEO of SMIC is from Samsung (I think) who brought 200 researchers to SMIC along with him.
I feel all this is a drama between USA and china.

Is it Indo-China Sea or South China Sea? - Hindustan Times

hanumadu wrote:I don't understand the logic of chinese picking up fight with the very countries they depend on for survival. Even the 7nm chip technology that china claims uses lithographic machines and other components from USA/Japan. And SMIC got this far only because the co-CEO of SMIC is from Samsung (I think) who brought 200 researchers to SMIC along with him.
I feel all this is a drama between USA and china.

The very nature of the Chinese system being opaque becomes a leverage to powers like the US to manipulate and "shape" world opinion against it.

Do we really know their side of the story ? . I am no big fan of the CCP but truth can be stranger than fiction

It is often said a democratic china would be more nationalistic than a communist one.

Ever Wonder why the ccp is keen on zero covid ?

kit wrote:

hanumadu wrote:I don't understand the logic of chinese picking up fight with the very countries they depend on for survival. Even the 7nm chip technology that china claims uses lithographic machines and other components from USA/Japan. And SMIC got this far only because the co-CEO of SMIC is from Samsung (I think) who brought 200 researchers to SMIC along with him.
I feel all this is a drama between USA and china.

The very nature of the Chinese system being opaque becomes a leverage to powers like the US to manipulate and "shape" world opinion against it.

Do we really know their side of the story ? . I am no big fan of the CCP but truth can be stranger than fiction

It is often said a democratic china would be more nationalistic than a communist one.

Ever Wonder why the ccp is keen on zero covid ?

Sure, America spreads a lot of disinformation, but what have we done to China that they keep needling us?
Anyway, my post was not supporting the US. I said that China and USA are hand in glove in creating the drama over Taiwan to give a fillip to Biden. After the midterms, Biden can return the favour.

hanumadu wrote:

kit wrote:

Sure, America spreads a lot of disinformation, but what have we done to China that they keep needling us?
Anyway, my post was not supporting the US. I said that China and USA are hand in glove in creating the drama over Taiwan to give a fillip to Biden. After the midterms, Biden can return the favour.

Indeed., i think China and US has some understanding between them, like the MOU between CCP and Indian National Congress !

That makes zero sense even as a Hollywood movie plot. There is an ongoing shift in US (and even in Europe) across political parties that China is a threat to their hegemony. How exactly to deal with that might differ but the trend is not going to change. American political parties are not that easy to buy off like INC.

We are not going to do ourselves any favors if we don't see this trend and hence, fail to exploit it fully to our benefit.

SSridhar wrote:Is it Indo-China Sea or South China Sea? - Hindustan Times

Excellent write up Sridhar garu. But instead of Indo-China would Bharat-China sea or Hindu-China sea would be better ? Only because Indo is also used by European Dutch and Indonesians as a shot hand for Indonesian people or anything connected with Indonesia. Indo-China sea in many Indonesian/South East Asian/Dutch minds could also be looked as a Indonesian-China sea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo_people

Yesterday, I was on Indigo website. I noticed that in the country drop down box it has 'Taiwan, Province of China'. What gives? Air India has just Taiwan.

Might be coming from the GDS. Air india recently switched to Amadeus. Indigo is apparently on Travelport (merger of Apollo, Galileo and Worldspan) which is privately held by Elliott Group of UK now.

Rony wrote:

SSridhar wrote:Is it Indo-China Sea or South China Sea? - Hindustan Times

. . . But instead of Indo-China would Bharat-China sea or Hindu-China sea would be better ? Only because Indo is also used by European Dutch and Indonesians as a shot hand for Indonesian people or anything connected with Indonesia. Indo-China sea in many Indonesian/South East Asian/Dutch minds could also be looked as a Indonesian-China sea.

Rony, thanks.

The world recognizes that Indo refers to India. Take for example, Indo-Pacific.

Indonesia was/is called so due to its strong cultural ties to mothership India. As evidenced on the island of Bali.

Cyrano wrote:Indonesia was/is called so due to its strong cultural ties to mothership India. As evidenced on the island of Bali.

Yes. Even before Bali, the extensive and millennia-long Indic influence in Sumatra, Java, & Borneo and even beyond is unmistakable. The above article highlights some of these. That's why Indo-China Sea (ICS) is the only historically and politically correct form of referring to that sea.

BTW, the word "Indonesia" means "Indian island"

All SEA countries have strong linkage to India e.g., even the names of the countries. Indonesia= Indian island; Singapore and Malaysia are both sanskrit words "(Malay"= mountain e.g., Hi"malaya")

Cambodia is Anglicized derivative of Kampuchea -> kamboj

Adrija wrote:BTW, the word "Indonesia" means "Indian island"

All SEA countries have strong linkage to India e.g., even the names of the countries. Indonesia= Indian island; Singapore and Malaysia are both sanskrit words "(Malay"= mountain e.g., Hi"malaya")

Cambodia is Anglicized derivative of Kampuchea -> kamboj

Lol... I have always been an advocate for a "Greater Indian Union " like EU encorporating South East Asian countries , Sri Lanka, Nepal and littoral islands ,Tibet should be free and be the original buffer, pakis and beedis are excused.

Absolutely! China must be frustrated they could not supplant Indic Hindu influence with their own sauce despite centuries of trying. And that's precisely the reason all these SEA countries are wary and distrustful of China.

BD and Pak need reconversion ie Ghar waapsi. Not let them fester in their hate filled desert cult forever. Even Afghanistan needs to become Gandhara desha again. Nothing east of Persia and all the way until the Pacific is out of the Hindusphere. But we are getting OT now.

Adrija wrote:BTW, the word "Indonesia" means "Indian island"

All SEA countries have strong linkage to India e.g., even the names of the countries. Indonesia= Indian island; Singapore and Malaysia are both sanskrit words "(Malay"= mountain e.g., Hi"malaya")

Cambodia is Anglicized derivative of Kampuchea -> kamboj

Singapore is actually Singh-Pur i.e. city of Lions

Looks like China is going to maintain a presence very close to Taiwan from now on.
China announces fresh military drills around Taiwan

China’s military announced fresh military drills on Monday in the seas and airspace around Taiwan — a day after the scheduled end of its largest ever exercises to protest against last week’s visit to Taipei by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

China’s Eastern Theatre Command said it would conduct joint drills focusing on anti-submarine and sea assault operations — confirming the fears of some security analysts and diplomats that Beijing would continue to maintain pressure on Taiwan’s defenses. The duration and precise location of the latest drills is not yet known, but Taiwan has already eased flight restrictions near the six earlier Chinese exercise areas surrounding the island.

Dilbu wrote:Looks like China is going to maintain a presence very close to Taiwan from now on.
China announces fresh military drills around Taiwan

China’s military announced fresh military drills on Monday in the seas and airspace around Taiwan — a day after the scheduled end of its largest ever exercises to protest against last week’s visit to Taipei by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

China’s Eastern Theatre Command said it would conduct joint drills focusing on anti-submarine and sea assault operations — confirming the fears of some security analysts and diplomats that Beijing would continue to maintain pressure on Taiwan’s defenses. The duration and precise location of the latest drills is not yet known, but Taiwan has already eased flight restrictions near the six earlier Chinese exercise areas surrounding the island.

can Cheen do a Gaza on Taiwan in terms of travel and trade blockade?

Arima wrote: can Cheen do a Gaza on Taiwan in terms of travel and trade blockade?

Despite deft propaganda about being a monolithic political and policy entity, China is a faction ridden country with not much political consensus on a course of action on Taiwan other than “we must be angry”. Taiwan has developed close links to a lot of influential trading factions while all the noise and attention is garnered by the howling BruceLee monkey factions posturing inside CMC. We saw that during post-Galwan talks too.

Israel on the other hand has a rigid national consensus till now, that goes like (to paraphrase Tony Stark): “I have a plan. Attack”. Regardless of who comes to power, they keep punishing Gaza, albeit with rapidly diminishing military, political or economic results.

Either way, Taiwan does not seem to be easy to deal with for China, by means of a blockade.

as the HK diplomat said, Chinese are adopting wolf tactics.
They will circle around Taiwan repeatedly - to find weakness and to lull Taiwanese into normalcy.
Same tactics were employed by Mongols on Hans.

Chinese PLA drills simulating Taiwan blockade seen to become new ‘normal’

Beijing is extending its military drills to simulate a blockade of Taiwan, following four days of unprecedented live-fire exercises which observers say will be “normalised” as a “new reality” in the Taiwan Strait. The scale of future People’s Liberation Army drills, however, will depend on actions taken by Taipei and Washington, they believe. This comes as the PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command said joint navy and air force drills would continue around Taiwan, in preparation for operations of “joint defence” and “joint blockade”.

“The PLA’s live-fire drills encircling Taiwan have turned the current crisis to China’s advantage,” said Koh King Kee, president of Malaysian think tank Centre for New Inclusive Asia. The practice will eventually become an “accepted reality” for the international community, Koh forecast.
Escalating or reducing the scale of the exercises is up to Beijing, he said, as the US has lost its “position to determine the course of the cross-strait crisis solely on its own terms”. “Beijing can turn such military exercises into real action any time it deems necessary … or just maintain its current military pressure on Taiwan,” Koh said. Immediate conflict is unlikely, but Beijing will “normalise” regular military drills around Taiwan, as maintaining pressure on the island gives it more control and flexibility, he believes.

Jits wrote:Singapore is actually Singh-Pur i.e. city of Lions

simhapura

BRI loses steam, no fresh Chinese investment post-Covid pandemic

After Sri Lanka went bankrupt due to economic profligacy on count of white elephant Chinese funded projects, Bangladesh has joined Nepal by saying a big NO to any further loans from China. The two countries are now only interested in grants.

Bangladesh Finance Minster AHM Mustafa Kamal has publicly blamed economically unviable Chinese BRI projects for exacerbating economic crisis in Sri Lanka. He has warned that developing countries must think twice about taking more loans through BRI as global inflation and slowing growth add to the strains on indebted emerging markets.

Fact is that Bangladesh has made it clear to China that it is not willing to accept any further loans but only grants from Beijing. The same pitch has been taken by Nepal as the Chinese debt trap looms large and economic collapse of Sri Lanka, which owes 10 per of its USD 51 billion external debt to Beijing, has become a classic example. The white elephant of Hambantota port in Sri Lanka is now under 99 year Chinese lease post 2017 under debt for equity swap with more than a billion dollar Rajapaksa international airport a nonstarter.

Another country that its reeling under Chinese debt is Pakistan with some USD 53 billion being spent by Beijing under the aegis of BRI on projects which are nowhere near fruition. Touted as a major strategic initiative between “milk and honey” allies, the Gwadar Port on Makran coast is still not complete with Baloch insurgents getting restive by the day and targeting the Pakistan Army and even the Chinese workers.

Jits wrote:

Adrija wrote:BTW, the word "Indonesia" means "Indian island"

All SEA countries have strong linkage to India e.g., even the names of the countries. Indonesia= Indian island; Singapore and Malaysia are both sanskrit words "(Malay"= mountain e.g., Hi"malaya")

Cambodia is Anglicized derivative of Kampuchea -> kamboj

Singapore is actually Singh-Pur i.e. city of Lions

Thailand > Ayuthaya > Ayodhya
Suvarnabhumi airport is self explanatory