Bharat Rakshak

^^ I was more critical of Dr. HarshVardhan. But at least now, we should not wash dirty linen in public. This will be spun as pharma lobby is controlling Govt. Right now, hundreds of suggestions are coming to Govt. It is hard for them to consider every suggestion. The advisers have their own egos and biases. But GOvt. after setting up one committee, it has to listen to them instead of taking every SM idea during the height of the crisis.

^^ It was not about criticising BJP or minister HarshVardhan.
All he was saying that representation should include scientists also.

This is not a SM criticism about a specific idea. This is about a explicitly visible knowledge gap in the committee created to address a problem.

I don't know why you are seeing the criticism through the lens that every criticism is against BJP or member of that group.

Trying to defend someone when there is not attack on that person is like attacking a strawmen and red herring argument together to bring attention to a particular entity, which in this case is BJP or Minister HarshVardhan. Your argument is totally unnecessary. You don't have to channelise people's opinion to support BJP or health minister by villifying the honest opinion of the scientist.

That is my point.

vijayk wrote:^^ I was more critical of Dr. HarshVardhan. But at least now, we should not wash dirty linen in public. This will be spun as pharma lobby is controlling Govt. Right now, hundreds of suggestions are coming to Govt. It is hard for them to consider every suggestion. The advisers have their own egos and biases. But GOvt. after setting up one committee, it has to listen to them instead of taking every SM idea during the height of the crisis.

I follow Dr Gobardhan's tweets and his fellow researcher Ananth Ranganathan's too. He is a nationalist and from the advent of this pandemic he was advocating the use of BCG as a prophylaxis. His lab was gheraoed by the useless jholawalas at JNU during the strike.
BJP's top leadership appears thoroughly clueless most of the times. After 6 years of being at the helm this is inexcusable.

I'm not so sure about the effectiveness of BCG vaccine. I know of people who have had taken the vaccines when they were a child and now in serious condition. May be, it gives some protection, but your guess is good as mine. Until a proper scientific study comes out, there is no way to say for sure.

Now, the govt has to be careful when channelizing resources into finding the solutions for Covid-19. It shouldn't run after the latest fad that hits the public. I think it is right that Dr. Gobardhan is kept out of this study so as to not influence the study in the way he wants. I would have to believe that health minister of India has best interests of the people of India and has got the best people with objectivity on finding the solution.

The Chinese virus uses ACE2 receptor in the lungs to infect the cells.

This would not be the first virus to use ACE2 receptors. There must be others as well.

Haven't we humans done any research on prevent this use of ACE2 receptors? for other viruses?

Any updates on the status of AB testing for Covid detections in India? I believe it was supposed to start this week, correct?

The doc now thinks there is data coming in indicating Vitamin D deficiency may be one the factors in immune response to Chinese virus.

He has been saying for a while, that Black & Brown people in Europe & US have been hit harder compared to their population percentage, due to lack of Vitamin D.

Does this explain lower deaths in India?

So what explains heightened mortality in sun loving Spain and Italy but not in more alpine northern Europe ?

This link between Vitm D and COVID-19 related mortality seems to me the age old causation versus correlation problem. Do people with low Vitm D have higher death rates due to COVID-19, thus two are correlated? OR does lower Vitm D causes more death rates in among COVID-19 patients?

Italy provided the best quality data for age group mortality. No other nation has provided such rich data. Look this https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... oup-italy/

Mortality is between 25% and 30% among people older than 70. This age group is also less likely to venture out in sun, which is the best source of Vitm D. Many are under institutional care. If all we are observing is a lower Vitm D among Covid fatalities, then it is merely a correlation. There are statistical techniques using matching samples to overcome this problem but none are as good as a controlled experiment. I have been looking for dataset with patient characteristics variables without much luck. If anybody has a good source, I would run some tests with that data, which will still not be as good as a controlled experiment, but would provide some more evidence of whether lower Vitm D "causes" more mortality.

nam wrote:The doc now thinks there is data coming in indicating Vitamin D deficiency may be one the factors in immune response to Chinese virus.

He has been saying for a while, that Black & Brown people in Europe & US have been hit harder compared to their population percentage, due to lack of Vitamin D.

Does this explain lower deaths in India?

From my personal experience desis in Amreeka have a death rate lower than the general, white public.

Black and brown (mainly hispanic) people are far more likely to be in poverty and have lack of proper health care. I would wonder if lack of vitamin D impacts greater than poverty and lack of health. I would say not. Blacks and hispanics have lower life expectancies even before the wuhan virus and things like heart disease and diabetes which kills a lot of them at a young age already makes them even more vulnerable to the virus.

Suraj wrote:So what explains heightened mortality in sun loving Spain and Italy but not in more alpine northern Europe ?

Lack of Vitamin D could be due to Winter months. General lack of Sun across Europe, coupled with fully covered clothing.

The region worst hit in Italy was in the North. Coupled with the aged population.

It is a know factor that Vit D helps in the immune process. It probably betters your chance of fighting the virus, rather than hoping to get lucky.

chola wrote: From my personal experience desis in Amreeka have a death rate lower than the general, white public.

Black and brown (mainly hispanic) people are far more likely to be in poverty and have lack of proper health care. I would wonder if lack of vitamin D impacts greater than poverty and lack of health. I would say not. Blacks and hispanics have lower life expectancies even before the wuhan virus and things like heart disease and diabetes which kills a lot of them at a young age already makes them even more vulnerable to the virus.

Darker the skin, longer it takes to make Vitamin D.

UK has seen a higher death rate of Brown people, compared to their population percentage. There could be many factor, not just one.

We Brown people living in colder place in Amerika & Europe, would have a weaker immune system. In India it is taken care by excess Sun..

nam wrote:

Suraj wrote:So what explains heightened mortality in sun loving Spain and Italy but not in more alpine northern Europe ?

Lack of Vitamin D could be due to Winter months. General lack of Sun across Europe, coupled with fully covered clothing.

The region worst hit in Italy was in the North. Coupled with the aged population.

It is a know factor that Vit D helps in the immune process. It probably betters your chance of fighting the virus, rather than hoping to get lucky.

I don't really see a correlation here to Vit D regarding mortality rates among ethnic minorities in the west. Without normalizing to income and any other factors, it just becomes a guess, unless there are studies that analyze this in detail.

According to the video, there seems to be a study being planned, with high dosage of Vit D being given within control groups. Let's see what comes out of it.

Suraj wrote: I don't really see a correlation here to Vit D regarding mortality rates among ethnic minorities in the west. Without normalizing to income and any other factors, it just becomes a guess, unless there are studies that analyze this in detail.

Several data points to correlate over:

1. Vitamin D. Latitude, Season, Skin Color, lifestyle, income bracket
2. Co-morbidities (Diabetes, High BP, Heart diseases). Income bracket (for example in the West, poverty is directly correlated to obesity vs. East)
3. Proximity. Front line? Exposed to a Thooker?
4. Previous health state. Vaccinated? Vaccinated with flu or BCG?

To test for one, all other points need to be normalized.

Just pointing out how complex it is to even simply answers like: is Vit. D is required or not emphatically!

There was another video by the same Doc. At around 6:00, there is a comparison of risk of death by ethnicity with age and economic status factored in. This was used to deduce the relation to skin tones and vitamin D. Bit surprising that pakistani/bangladeshi are grouped separately and have higher risk than Indians.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHW5jkVyLYM&t=300s

Here is a paper on Vit D and Cytokine storm corrleation. One of the authors is the husband of my Sister-in-Law.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20058578v3

Below is the conclusion paragraph

5. Conclusion
Large-scale data shows that different countries have differing A-CMR among confirmed
cases. Screening status notably impacts A-CMR, as countries with aggressive COVID-
19 screening show decreased A-CMR. A sensitivity analysis across countries with similar
screening status and age distribution (e.g. US, France, and the UK) suggests that Vit D
may have an effect on A-CMR. Our preliminary analysis of COVID-19 patient data [22]
combined with a Vit D research study [16] suggests that Vit D may reduce COVID-19
fatality by suppressing cytokine storm [10,14,21]. Specifically, the risk of severe COVID-
19 cases among patients with severe Vit D deficiency is 17.3% while the equivalent figure
for patients with normal Vit D level is 14.6% (a reduction of 15.6%). This potential effect
may be attributed to Vit D’s ability to suppress the adaptive immune system, regulating
cytokine level and thereby reducing the risk of developing severe COVID-19. For more
accurate estimates, future work needs to account for more factors and to collect patient level
data, particularly regarding Vit D levels.

We all are taking 5000 IU Vitamin D daily now as it is a safe mitigation.

Uttam wrote:Mortality is between 25% and 30% among people older than 70. This age group is also less likely to venture out in sun, which is the best source of Vitm D. Many are under institutional care.

But then they would be taking supplemental Vit D in pill form. That is almost always prescribed especially to those who don't venture out often. It is widely available and very affordable.

V_Raman wrote: We all are taking 5000 IU Vitamin D daily now as it is a safe mitigation.

Isn't that overdose? Most of it will just pass through one's system without getting into the body as such, or so I thought. Maximum of 2000 IU per week is what some people take in India. In the US, the dose is 1000-2000 IU per day or every other day.

To be on the safe side, start with a Vitamin D test, then use a calculator.

https://www.grassrootshealth.net/project/dcalculator/

My anecdotal experience is all about supporting the use of Vitamin D. Taken early enough, it stops infections in their track but also promotes wound healing.

V_Raman wrote:Here is a paper on Vit D and Cytokine storm corrleation. One of the authors is the husband of my Sister-in-Law.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20058578v3

We all are taking 5000 IU Vitamin D daily now as it is a safe mitigation.

This article is reaching conclusions from imaginary data. As the authors note, there is no data available for COVID patients and their vitamin D levels so they are correlating published data on vitamin D levels in other populations and levels of inflammatory markers, and somehow applying this to COVID patient data.

Vitamin D and its effect on reducing respiratory infections has been well-studied and the jury is out. It probably has a protective effect in people who are malnutritioned and/or those who are very deficient in vitamin D.

The higher risk of death in minorities in the UK is possibly due to higher prevalence of diabetes and hypertension, both of which increase risk of COVID death. Access to healthcare and/or discrimination probably needs to be considered as well

5000 units vitamin daily is a very high daily dose!!!
The usual dose for daily supplementation in DEFICIENT ADULTS is 800 IU once a day.

Vayutuvan wrote:

V_Raman wrote: We all are taking 5000 IU Vitamin D daily now as it is a safe mitigation.

Isn't that overdose? Most of it will just pass through one's system without getting into the body as such, or so I thought. Maximum of 2000 IU per week is what some people take in India. In the US, the dose is 1000-2000 IU per day or every other day.

WA state is notorious for extremly low Vit D levels. So all of us are chronically deficient. 5000 IU is actually Dr. recommended here!

Why such a contrast between India and UK (and all other countries)? Lock down has been effective in reducing daily cases in most countries, but in India it has been the opposite. Of course, UK has far fewer population than India, so in theory lock down is more effective in India compared to most countries, especially US which is still having more than 20000 cases daily. But at least those countries are showing a declining trend. I wonder even if 10 or 20 percent infected will result in some sort of herd immunity and combined with lock down will bring numbers down.

New York numbers are declining rapidly. Is it the effect of lock down or is it herd immunity? The effect of relaxation of lock down rules in many US states will be seen in a week or less and so will it be in India.

hanumadu wrote:

Why such a contrast between India and UK (and all other countries)? Lock down has been effective in reducing daily cases in most countries, but in India it has been the opposite. Of course, UK has far fewer population than India, so in theory lock down is more effective in India compared to most countries, especially US which is still having more than 20000 cases daily. But at least those countries are showing a declining trend. I wonder even if 10 or 20 percent infected will result in some sort of herd immunity and combined with lock down will bring numbers down.

New York numbers are declining rapidly. Is it the effect of lock down or is it herd immunity? The effect of relaxation of lock down rules in many US states will be seen in a week or less and so will it be in India.

India's testing had gone up week after week as well so the increase may well be that simply far more people are now identified with the virus than before.

Where did that 964 for UK come from? It has always been 3k+ positive cases every day.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Why the difference? quite simple, UK was community infected much earlier than India. More disciplined lockdown has brought it under control to around 3-4%

nam wrote:Where did that 964 for UK come from? It has always been 3k+ positive cases every day.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Why the difference? quite simple, UK was community infected much earlier than India. More disciplined lockdown has brought it under control to around 3-4%

Please scroll down and look for 'Daily number of lab-confirmed cases in England by specimen date'. Clearly there is a decline. Is it just lock down or is there herd immunity at play here? California is seeing increasing number of cases despite lock down.

From new ultraviolet wavelengths to virucidal face masks: Could these new technologies help defeat coronavirus? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/scie ... 99886.html

From CuSO4 paint on masks to Zinc, ioniser, UV radiation, everything being tried to stop nCV

^^^
How toxic will it be to breathe some of those stuff?

hanumadu wrote:

nam wrote:Where did that 964 for UK come from? It has always been 3k+ positive cases every day.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Why the difference? quite simple, UK was community infected much earlier than India. More disciplined lockdown has brought it under control to around 3-4%

Please scroll down and look for 'Daily number of lab-confirmed cases in England by specimen date'. Clearly there is a decline. Is it just lock down or is there herd immunity at play here? California is seeing increasing number of cases despite lock down.

They are making a distinction between 'Lab Confirmed' and 'Confirmed'. While the Lab Confirmed is showing downward trend, the Confirmed is still growing at 3500 a day. Do we have similar numbers for India or ALL our cases 'Lab Confirmed' only?

India seems to have milder illness from Covid, with a higher recovery rate & lower mortality rate (MoH presser). Can Dr from desh confirm this please.

I am very surprise with the paki numbers..and death rate...wondering if it is huge data fudging or what..surprising that a nation which sends people for basic healthcare to India is doing so well in a pandemic

If true something seems to be working in favour of hot countries or India, though Brazil is falling down.
Amongst countries who controlled nCV well so far Germany reported new cases & death https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/germany ... hs-1838272
China is set to screen every one in Wuhan (11 million tests) to know spread & reach of nCV. after new clusters.
Soko has imposed partial lockdown again after a superspreader walked through dozen of pubs & clubs.
Singapore's underbelly labour camps has nCV ravaging through.
India comparatively seems to be doing well apparently.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... nity-in-uk
nCV scores high kill on Filipino community in Western countries, reason unknown but could be lack of Vit D, frontlining, predisposed to DM2, high BP, truncal obesity etc.

Please don't go by UK reported numbers.
On personal front a close relative and spouse were infected by Covid in London.
Spouse was hospitalized and on ventilator/ICU for 8 weeks. finally recovered last week and now talking.
Relative, though sick, and obviously infected, ambulance came and did blood ox test but refused to do covid test. Ambulance Drs advised relative to stay home.

UK covid numbers are under reported.

US numbers aren't reliable either. Multiple business owners that I know have reported that local govt set ups don't care or are biased about testing. After suspecting positive cases these business owners had to resort to their own pockets to get the whole staff and their family tested as govt set up would not care. Once confirmed positive case, no calls whatsoever from govt entities for days. Practically no such thing as contact tracing. One has to look at the whole US and not only hot and focused areas.

New study suggests vitamin D is linked to COVID-19 mortality — how a common vitamin could become pivotal
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/new-stu ... 01888.html

As for under reporting, that's a known fact. Unless you have symptoms and are on the verge of dying, testing and admission are not being done. People affected by the virus have posted so on the web. Countries have guidelines on who gets tested and who don't. Those factors are common to number of new cases before and now.

In many states, the active cases are less than recovered. There seems to be a pattern that states having a high number of cases and struggling to keep them in check are ones which have big metros in them.

Even Gujarat with Ahmedabad seems to have plateaued. Touch wood.

Problem states are now MH, TN. We don't know much about WB as usual but I think the situation there is worse than being revealed.

Prof Shamika Ravi
@ShamikaRavi
Where are the new cases coming from? 5Day moving average of new cases:
1) MH > TN > GJ, DL > RJ, MP, UP, WB...
2) Infection spreading eastward: OD, JH, TR...

I am kinda relieved looking at the above graphs. It seems that with social distancing, wearing masks and following other precautions it is possible to flatten the curve (even with morons who flout the norms) in most states and cities except the behemoths. As the economy opens up, we will find out at what level of activity the cases start increasing again. I hope, at least in India's case, it is quite high and close to normal.