India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[pankajs]

Why do retired IA Generals keep saying capture of DBO would fatally weaken India's control over Siachen Glacier?

One of the optical illusions of geography is that we think of Siachen Glacier as being at the source of the Nubra River, and we think of Karakoram Pass as that huge triangle away from it, somewhere to the northeast. How can losing KKP and DBO cause loss of Siachen? Or vice versa? Will PLA launch a blitzkrieg over the hitherto unpassable Saser La and thence to Nubra Valley?

Always enlightening. Do post more frequently.

[pankajs]

Guys seriously our Armed forces are one of the tools to achieve foreign policy goals and are strictly under civilian control. For years they were told to guard a border that was not demarcated and that too without any firearms. There was a routine military exercise going on the other side and it is just a matter of time to redeploy them for salami slicing given the terrain and infrastructure on the other side. You cannot wake up after 60 years of apathy at all levels and expect our Armed forces to react differently. The truth is politico-civilian (aka NSC) leadership has to define foreign policy strategic objectives that then can be translated into doctrine, force structure, and military posture. Does GOI really have a China policy and is it realistic? Have they provided the necessary tools to implement that objective? If they really want our forces to take back Aksai Chin then provide the tools necessary to do that. You starve them with meager resources and expect them to fight an offensive war, it is not going to happen. It's always possible to wake someone from sleep, but no amount of noise will wake someone who is pretending to be asleep.

Agree ..

[Aditya_V]

Just thinking about the PLAAF base in Ngari, the IAF Airbases with 450 km of it would be on the plains

1) In the Hills, Leh, Budgam Srinagar and Avantipura

2) In the plains - Pathankot, Ambala, Adampur, Chandigarh, Hindon, Bareilly (these range from 355km to 450 Km)

Looks like the Ladakh Sector Chinese will have to depend on S-300 and S-400 combo along with Hotan as Ngari can be vulnerable to IAF aircraft from the plains. Any other airbase we can use to quickly overwhelm the PLAAF and PLARF in the Ladakh sector in case the Balloon goes up?

[pankajs]

If we do plan an armed response, who should be the objective? Drive them towards F8? then what? What if the Chini intrude in some other random place, along the 700KM? You have to guard every metre o LAC.

The thing is it is not clear to define how far we want to push the PLA. You cannot just push them to F8 and then stop.

1. Our steadfast public position has been that China must go back to its peace time deployment. At Pangong tso that would mean Chinese must pull back at least till Fort/IB line with the usual deployment between F8 and Fort/IB.
2. Make counter deployment if Chinese retain significant forces even if they pull back beyond F8.
3. Also, we need to figure out how to stop a future Pangang tso re-occurrence if patrolling by both sides has to resume.
4. While the LAC is sufficiently porous, major ingress is only possible on 5/7 places. Most of the current points plus Demchok and Chumur.
5. One reason why more surveillance infra is needed including Scouts, Drones and Satellite with daily revisit.
6. The LAC will harden further post this fracas. The Chinese will not like it.

[Gyan]

One issue with Chinese Radars, would be, where will they be based?. How will they look "deep" inside India to use long Range S300. There are minor anthill called Himalayas in the way. Whats the disturbance which is caused by Mountains in low level scanning? How well Israeli & Indian jammers will work? Can Chinese radars even detect low flying Jaguars?

Did you understand the threat given by video of High level para drop of SF?

[Gyan]

Just thinking about the PLAAF base in Ngari, the IAF Airbases with 450 km of it would be on the plains

1) In the Hills, Leh, Budgam Srinagar and Avantipura

2) In the plains - Pathankot, Ambala, Adampur, Chandigarh, Hindon, Bareilly (these range from 355km to 450 Km)

Looks like the Ladakh Sector Chinese will have to depend on S-300 and S-400 combo along with Hotan as Ngari can be vulnerable to IAF aircraft from the plains. Any other airbase we can use to quickly overwhelm the PLAAF and PLARF in the Ladakh sector in case the Balloon goes up?

In my humble, uninformed view all Chinese bases in Tibet except Hotan are useless, thats why they don't have HAS. If IAF has good jammers, then PLA & PLAAF will be massacred within the first week by IAF. G219 will be called Mazar Sharif.

It can be redux 1982 Syria Israeli Air War.

[MeshaVishwas]

Going by the MO existing in other areas, CCP will undoubtedly increase Aerial activities against us as well, and I feel that Japan has so far the best response to such problems(Although they recently mentioned that their Eagle fleet was eating up a lot of air frame hours due to the continuous scrambles)

Japan now scrambling jets against all Chinese fighters from Fujian amid Senkaku row

The ASDF used to respond to each Chinese military plane with two of its fighter jets. But it now does so with four, the sources said.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... -senkakus/

[chola]

What all this means to me is that India and Modiji has decided that China MUST withdraw and failure to do so will result in military action. We are giving them time for talks to work out, action will be taken at a time of our choosing perhaps Sept/Oct. If this were not so, Modi/Rajnathsingh ji would not be going to the forward areas and raising troop morale. It is important to take action this year, so that the Chinese are on the backfoot. This will also be helpful when India goes for Gilgit-Baltistan and keep the Chinese away. I think China too realizes that CPEC is gone and they are making a back up play in Iran (Chabahar).

Mostly Agree ..

1. We are willing for a negotiated settlement as first option. Allows for a face saver for China/Xi.
2. While going to the front-line has its signalling value, the same words even if uttered from Delhi would have meant the same and sent the same signal globally.
3. Modi/Rajnath, by making such a statement, are committing themselves to a certain course of action. This WILL be picked up by international actors.
4. While the domestic audience might be willing to give Modi the benefit of doubt for inaction, international opinion will be unforgiving if he fails to act. Therefore, Modi has comitted himself to push the Chinese out before of a global audience.
5. Chinese are trying for a backup for CPEC.

1. So we are giving them time to build up and THEN fight in a mountain situation that deters offensive action where the defender has up to a 10 to 1 advantage over attacker? It makes no sense. No, the longer we wait the more locked in place are lines of control. The time for war was immediately after the attack on 16 Bihar. The best would have been during Doklam when they only had 3 brigades !in all of Tibet but I digress,

2. The truth is when Modi went to Leh, it was a morale booster but it was defensive. He spoke about stopping expansionism instead of punishing the enemy. He also attacked other Indian officials for irresponsible statement. Rahul and Congress party were complete sh1ts during this time but their tone were far more warlike than Modi's. If he wanted war, he would have one-upped their rhetoric and the country would have backed him %100 and would have taken the plank from underneath Gandhi and his Constipation party.

I see little progress to be perfectly honest. The LAC will become like the LOC. There is no place in the world where it would be better to attack Cheen now they have multiple new mech divisions than when they only had 3 brigades. But especially not in the mountains. No one would be able to attack anyone now.

[pankajs]

Mostly Agree ..

1. We are willing for a negotiated settlement as first option. Allows for a face saver for China/Xi.
2. While going to the front-line has its signalling value, the same words even if uttered from Delhi would have meant the same and sent the same signal globally.
3. Modi/Rajnath, by making such a statement, are committing themselves to a certain course of action. This WILL be picked up by international actors.
4. While the domestic audience might be willing to give Modi the benefit of doubt for inaction, international opinion will be unforgiving if he fails to act. Therefore, Modi has comitted himself to push the Chinese out before of a global audience.
5. Chinese are trying for a backup for CPEC.

1. So we are giving them time to build up and THEN fight in a mountain situation that deters offensive action where the defender has up to a 10 to 1 advantage over attacker? It makes no sense. No, the longer we wait the more locked in place are lines of control. The time for war was immediately after the attack on 16 Bihar. The best would have been during Doklam when they only had 3 brigades !in all of Tibet but I digress,

2. The truth is when Modi went to Leh, it was a morale booster but it was defensive. He spoke about stopping expansionism instead of punishing the enemy. He also attacked other Indian officials for irresponsible statement. Rahul and Congress party were complete sh1ts during this time but their tone were far more warlike than Modi's. If he wanted war, he would have one-upped their rhetoric and the country would have backed him %100 and would have taken the plank from underneath Gandhi and his Constipation party.

I see little progress to be perfectly honest. The LAC will become like the LOC. There is nowhere in the world where it is better to attack Cheen now they have multiple new mech divisions instead of when they only had 3 brigades. But especially in the mountains. No one would be able to attack anyone now.

1. The Chinese had already come prepared with Arty/Armour and all.
   • We needed time to judge their posture and prepare.
   • India's limited aim is to clear the LAC/Buffers. It was 1:10 on the day Chinese sat at Pangang tso and it is the same today. OTOH, India has to plan to deter the Chinese Arty/Armour ALREADY in place lest they take a hand. We cannot launch a clearing operation without factoring that in.
2. That is right and it is still our goal ... to clear the LAC/Buffer zone. I don't think Modi is planning to expand the conflict beyond what the Chinese have imposed on India. However, he has to plan for an expansion given what and how the Chinese are deployed at depth to the LAC.
3. One of my other conclusions in a previous post was that LAC is going to harden.

[pankajs]

His piece embedded. I haven't read it.

https://twitter.com/APanagariya/status/ ... 4123811844

Arvind Panagariya @APanagariya

In my piece in @IndiaToday special issue, I argue that India needs its own long game against China. Two elements of the game must be to progressively decouple from it and rapidly bridge the current gap in economic size.

Without economic strength there is no military strength and hardy any diplomatic strength unless one imitates North Korea and become a nuisance to the world.

[chola]

His piece embedded. I haven't read it.

https://twitter.com/APanagariya/status/ ... 4123811844

Arvind Panagariya @APanagariya

In my piece in @IndiaToday special issue, I argue that India needs its own long game against China. Two elements of the game must be to progressively decouple from it and rapidly bridge the current gap in economic size.

Without economic strength there is no military strength and handy any diplomatic strength unless one imitates North Korea and become a nuisance to the world.

That is a fairly good piece. Decoupling has to be progressive otherwise it would be an own goal. You can't grow an economy by crippling the pharma, electronics and auto industries by a sudden clampdown in APIs, tech components and auto parts during a recession and pandemic. The apps ban is a good step. They don't affect much in our current economy (save for chini investment in Indian startups.)

Yes it has to be done but it takes time. Use what the chinis had done. They grew by trading with all their enemies -- US, Japan, Taiwan, etc. We can should do the same.

We cannot make up economic difference with Cheen on internal market alone when they have a much bigger internal market than we do. It is not possible. And read the headlines. They are only major economy growing when trade is practically dead for everyone. They are widening the gap in a global competition where everyone is on internal markets onlee.

How we make up growth is where we trade with more nations and more effectively than the chinis can. That is how Japan and Cheen itself was able to catch up with the West.

Except it is more challenging now as Cheen (and Japan before it) had poisoned the well for globalization. But we need to find a way to trade more than Cheen. North Korean kind (or Nehru/Gandhi NAM era) kind of self-sufficiency is not an option.

[abhik]

I don't get what "rapidly bridge the current gap in economic size" means - were we not already trying to do that? Or was GoI consciously not growing the economy to the fullest extent possible? I'm afraid such reasoning will only be used to justify continued underspending in defence and kicking the can down the road.

[chola]

I don't get what "rapidly bridge the current gap in economic size" means - were we not already trying to do that? Or was GoI consciously not growing the economy to the fullest extent possible? I'm afraid such reasoning will only be used to justify continued underspending in defence and kicking the can down the road.

The author Arvind wants us to trade more. Especially with US and EU with FTAs. Careful with decoupling from Cheen. Read my reply above.

[nam]

More than the Chinese exports, it is our guys who have been responsible for one sided increase in imports. The jokers at "Indian traders association" announced that they will not be importing rakhis and it will be a hit of 4000 Crores for the Chinese!

Rakhi, a low cost product made of thread & plastic gets imported worth 4000 crores! Same with fire crackers, plastic toys, furniture. These should have blocked long time back. Non capital goods from China should be banned or high tariffs applied.

Chinis have been able to decimate our manufacturing by offering CCP subsided items, driving the scale in their favor and thereby offering even cheaper.

There are alternative to Chinese goods. Just that they are expensive. If these goods are expensive, then our industries will start making them locally, as it becomes economically viable.

But then I am pretty sure the Chinese will divert them through Vietnam, Bangladesh, Burma & Vietnam. And our industries will gladly join in.

If GoI really wants, it can decimate Chinese imports to India. But it won't.

[nam]

I really want the Chinese to hang on to F4. That is the only want to remind GoI of the threat from China and need to decouple from imports.

If the Chinis go back, GoI will sweep everything under the carpet...and we will be back to square 1.

I am pretty sure they must already been thinking about doing away the app ban..

[Gyan]

The problem is our lack of understanding that China is not only using trade for prosperity, it is using it as instrument of "ECONOMIC WAR".

No Indian industry will survive this onslaught

Just like N3 coined the term Nuclear Ayatollahs, I would like to coin the term "Globalization Morons".

We had practically jobless growth for 16 years. We have to end the destruction of Indian Manufacturing Industry

[Gyan]

More than the Chinese exports, it is our guys who have been responsible for one sided increase in imports. The jokers at "Indian traders association" announced that they will not be importing rakhis and it will be a hit of 4000 Crores for the Chinese!

Rakhi, a low cost product made of thread & plastic gets imported worth 4000 crores! Same with fire crackers, plastic toys, furniture. These should have blocked long time back. Non capital goods from China should be banned or high tariffs applied.

Chinis have been able to decimate our manufacturing by offering CCP subsided items, driving the scale in their favor and thereby offering even cheaper.

There are alternative to Chinese goods. Just that they are expensive. If these goods are expensive, then our industries will start making them locally, as it becomes economically viable.

But then I am pretty sure the Chinese will divert them through Vietnam, Bangladesh, Burma & Vietnam. And our industries will gladly join in.

If GoI really wants, it can decimate Chinese imports to India. But it won't.

Right. We have to end FTAs also which are just avenue of smuggling. FTAs should be targeted product wise after the reciprocating Nation shows that it has Nationally Important industry of that product & gives us some equally important concessions.

BJP has indirectly accused a certain Congress Minister was taking bribes for these Anti India policy changes. But policies have still not been really changed.

I think some Bureaucrats with unfortunate connections are telling Govt not to Antagonise China.

[Gyan]

Tell me why are we importing:-

Toys
Furniture
Kitchen Ware, Cutlery, chinaware, Glassware
Bathroom fittings
Idols, painting, decorating items
Stationery, school bags, travelling bags
Tyres, Cars, Scooters, Bicycle
Umbrella, Raincoats, clothes, shoes, sandals
Candy, peanuts,
Sports Goods


From China ??????

And I haven't even mentioned high tech goods we manufacture in India like Thermal power plants

Whats role of some prominent industrialists, politicians & bureacrats?

Do you know that due to smuggling, Forget Import duty, China even evades GST?

Note:- I have not even started on electronics, capital goods, chemicals, dyes, Metro Cars, Railway components, Telecom, mobiles etc

China allegedly bids low but bribes Big.

[Gyan]

I really want the Chinese to hang on to F4. That is the only want to remind GoI of the threat from China and need to decouple from imports.

If the Chinis go back, GoI will sweep everything under the carpet...and we will be back to square 1.

I am pretty sure they must already been thinking about doing away the app ban..

Boss, that's why I say, if Xi had waited 10 more years, he could have appointed Viceroy of India and we would have welcomed him.

[Gyan]

Chinis have been able to decimate our manufacturing by offering CCP subsided items, driving the scale in their favor and thereby offering even cheaper.

There are alternative to Chinese goods. Just that they are expensive. If these goods are expensive, then our industries will start making them locally, as it becomes economically viable.

Plus China evades GST & Customs duty by under invoicing. Hence its hands down Cheaper than any Indian Competition. Some Chinese Goods are cheaper in India compared to even China

[Philip]

I was listening to Maj.Gen.Bakshi on "Blitzkrieg" advocating a pro-active military approach to the PRC,at a time and place of our choosing,incl. the maritime sphere. He rightly said that we got ourselves into a fear complex about the PRC thanks to the Delhi Durbar lobby that has sidelined the military for decades.After Doklam the GOI woke up to the PRC threat and got some movement on border infra,but responded only partially,never took enough measures to speed up the shortfalls in weaponry,spares,ammo for the 3 services,with attention focussed on an economically weak Pak,and kept the defence budget at all-time lows.It's also because we were sold the bull that great MEA diplomacy would keep the PRC quiet. Wuhan and M'puram were touted as great dpl. victories.We took our eye off the ball,exactly as XI had planned for.

The inescapable truth is that we were caught with our pants down.The PRC buildup was stealthy,caught our intel napping as they were at Kargil,and but for the gallant action by the Bihar regiment,we would have had the PLA in full force at the riverbank of the Shyok,perhaps even across it having severed the vital road link to DBO.The several KM convoy of arty,tanks,AVs,etc,etc.,was waiting behind the flashpoint to move in had the night battle gone in favour of the PLA. From the various accounts,the PLA troops having suffered horrendous casualties from the ferocity of the BR counterattack after their CO was murdered,fled back to their rear positions not part of the PLA plan.That action,where they are supposed to have incurred 100 casualties ,showed them that they were in for even worse to come if they advanced as planned.This is where the PRC's mil. philosophy failed them,that of winning a war without firing a shot,by consistent bullying.As a former western mil. expert said,the PRC would push the sword in until it met steel. It met more than that ! Doubt entered the minds of their commanders as to the outcome of any further PLA push.A military defeat would be colossal loss of face for the dragon,simply unacceptable.Since the clash,we made as quickly as we could moves to bolster our strength,positions,get critically reqd. ammo,etc. on a war footing.Extra MKIs,MIGs,etc. ordered,but will take some time before they arrive.

Therefore,even if we abandon the former surrender monkey MEA PRC policies,we need time to build up our forces sufficient to win a battle or two against the PLA in Ladakh or elsewhere along the Himalayan border. When we swing into action,maximum force has to be applied at the objectives of our wrath.Both air and missile attacks,combined with arty,spl. forces,etc.,will have to overcome the less than 3:1 troop ratio for an assault.The fear of using the IAF a in '62 must be buried deep.Narrow valleys will be easy to defend,except at the Depsang plains were MBTs can operate .Deliveries even of ammo,missiles,PGMs,etc.,will take a few months to arrive,making it folly to attempt an assault right now.The PLA too have lost the advantage of surprise.Never anticipating the roasting they got at Galwan,they fondly imagined it would be the equiv. of a summer's drive downhill.Had they real fighting guts,they would've pressed on regardless of the setback of the night of knives.They too believed their own propaganda of martial superiority as the Pakis have done war after war,never passing their military "exams",permanently failing.

Assuming that the die has been cast and that we will,unless they retreat as we've demanded,take the battle into Occupied Tibet,we need to choose our points of assault carefully,keeping them guessing with feints,making it impossible for them to cover the entire LAC . In various wars,including that of the Balkans,the Serbs used decoys very effectively.NATO's bombings were a farce,they hit everything including carts but not mil. eqpt. Tanks and other eqpt. were often fake to fool intel. In our build up,what we need in large qty. are heavylift helos,attack helos,UAVs/UCAVs,transports that can land on small dirt strips-a great shame the C-295s have yet to be inducted,even finalised ! As said umpteen times,leasing of aircraft,helos,etc. is the critical need of the hour, of types already in service.It's not a problem obtaining Ru eqpt.but if the French can send us extra Rafales from their inventory,and the Israelis SAM battlefield systems it would help immensely.

The theatre where the PRC is the most vulnerable and where we must take max. advantage of it is the maritime domain.Despite the stunning increase in numbers and quality of PLAN warships and subs,the PLAN is at this moment biting off more than it can chew.It is facing trouble in the ICS,Straits of Taiwan and the Pacific. The USN is now in full force there with several CBGs,plus B-52s,B-2s,etc. all primed and ready for the starter's orders.The Shandong and Liaoning will have exciting but v.short futures if the shooting starts. That vast maritime front facing such a massive armada of the USN and its allies,must be making would-be emperor XI huddling knock-kneed in his bunker like dear old Adolf H,making frequent trips to his personal latrine. It leaves the IN with a golden opportunity to teach the PRC a lesson for the history books. Interception and seizing of PRC oil tankers by specially trained commandos (start training them now),keep MARCOS for other ops,where we crew the seized spoils of war with our experienced merchant crews,their crews taken hostage and kept aboard the vessels to prevent any Chink attacks,and sail them into our harbours to offload their valuable cargo into our refineries. PRC MVs must also be intercepted or sunk apart from PLAN warships and subs in the IOR ,even if hiding at Gwadar,Hambantota,Colombo.etc.
As for Djibouti,the PRC African base,it must be laid waste to teach the Africans not to deal with the PRC or face the resultant consequences from India.Djibouti can be attacked by carrier aircraft,LRMP aircraft-pity we don't have Backfires and naval forces.A quick lease would do the biz,and had we the amphib assets,even a takeover.It will be impossible for the PRC/PLAN to support Djibouti if it was attacked and captured. Gwadar bombed into the stone age.Mining of all Paki harbours.Options on Karachi left to the IN,at least attacking any PLAN assets or MVs skulking there.Intel from the anti-PRC allied nations,the Quad,etc. would provide us with the requisite vital intel sufficient to intercept and destroy any PLAN subs,etc. attempting to ingress into the IOR. We have the great opportunity for a famous historic victory in the IOR .The options of sending any of our UW assets into the ICS is another matter for our naval planners to carefully examine as to the feasability.

One task for the IAF is to destroy key bridges,tunnels,highway stretches causing avalanches,etc. severing the Karakorum Highway to Pak and the road/rail infra into Tibet.Arming the Tibetans as we did the Mukti Bahini is a must.Sabotage of infra,etc. in Tibet like 'Orenz's Arabs against the Turks,shouldn't be too difficult with the PRC facing a hostile ,suppressed,oppressed Tibetan nation.The appointment of a CDS has never been more opportune. It is his task now to draw up a grand military strategy not just to block,but to obliterate the PRC's BRO,string of pearls,silk route whatever to dominate the IOR and its littorals from Asia to Africa. We can't do everything on our own.Intel and logistic help is reqd. from allied nations.An immediate masterplan of re-equipping the services with weaponry from abroad and home built undertaken and executed with extreme urgency. We have almost $500B of forex reserves.10% of that spent would be sufficient for many objectives to be met.As Gen.Bakshi and almost everyone on BRF have said,we must in the future strike to keep the enemy guessing and off balance ,instead of knee-jerk responses to his aggression.Remember, "offence is the best from of defence" !

[Y I Patel]

^^^ If the balloon does go up, my fondest wish is that IN does a number on Djibouti. They can keep pitching tents on Finger 4 till kingdom come

[pankajs]

TWTINT ... Expanding Naval co-operations around the Indo Pacific.

https://twitter.com/FrontalAssault1/sta ... 7060777990

FrontalAssault @FrontalAssault1

Indian PM Narendra Modi & Japanese PM Shinzo Abe will participate in a bilateral summit in October with focus on China. Various pacts giving access to each other's military bases expected to be signed. Similiar kind of meeting between India & Phillipines also expected soon.

https://twitter.com/drajaykumar_ias/sta ... 3071195138

Ajay Kumar @drajaykumar_ias

India and Israel sign agreement to expand cooperation in cybersecurity

[asgkhan]

<snipped>

This is fine for Republic TV and it's ok as a temporary expression of anger but we should treat the Chinese neither with respect, nor with contempt but with seriousness. We should analyse the hell out of them, we should understand every weakness, be able to exploit every chink (I know) in their armour. We should aim to understand them better than they understand themselves. If they are lizards, we should become Herpetologists. That IMO is how to treat a powerful enemy, not with emotional outbursts that cloud our judgment.

Not being emotional saar. The noise raised by surrender monkeys and compromised media is drowning out the sane voices in getting the goat.

The mango janata has complete confidence in mudi-kaka and Defence forces.

[manjgu]

there is no surrender...i think going to war is serious business with lives lost, economy going down the tube, etc etc..and a measure of last resort. GOI is rightly exhausting all means before the inevitable happens... the services are not twiddling their thumbs these days... serious work is going on ..on all fronts ... lot of BR warriors want a clash of arms yesterday...aint gonna happen.

[KL Dubey]

^^^ If the balloon does go up, my fondest wish is that IN does a number on Djibouti. They can keep pitching tents on Finger 4 till kingdom come

Aren't the Chinese perched on Coco islands? A quiet operation to clear that area would be better.

[SSridhar]

TWTINT ... Expanding Naval co-operations around the Indo Pacific.

Indian PM Narendra Modi & Japanese PM Shinzo Abe will participate in a bilateral summit in October with focus on China. Various pacts giving access to each other's military bases expected to be signed. Similiar kind of meeting between India & Phillipines also expected soon.

The LEMOA-like agreement with Japan was on the cards and was near to completion. No surprise there. But, Philippines is surely surprising. Until recently, Duterte was firmly in Chinese grip.

The first sign of change was a couple of months' back when with Malaysia and Vietnam, it filed its claims with UNCLOS (it had gotten extension for claim since 2009, just like many other nations). This joint effort angered China and in spite of not recognizing the PCA award of UNCLOS, China filed a counter to them.

Of course, even as early as April, 2019, Duterte had warned China that if they touched Pagasa (in Spratlys), he will ask his soldiers to launch a suicide mission. He said all bets would be off. Then, there was also the incident of the Chinese fishing vessel militia swarming the Philippino Thittu island last year, for which Duterte again issued a strong warning.

Then, was the recent extension of the Visiting Forces Agreement with the US which was ending.

The ASEAN statement last week over the 'serious' Indo-Chine Sea issues lately has set the tone, along with Pompeo's strong statement of support and the CVNs conducting exercises twice in a fortnight. Augurs well all over.

[manjgu]

Why do retired IA Generals keep saying capture of DBO would fatally weaken India's control over Siachen Glacier?

One of the optical illusions of geography is that we think of Siachen Glacier as being at the source of the Nubra River, and we think of Karakoram Pass as that huge triangle away from it, somewhere to the northeast. How can losing KKP and DBO cause loss of Siachen? Or vice versa? Will PLA launch a blitzkrieg over the hitherto unpassable Saser La and thence to Nubra Valley?

NO.

Here's what can happen.

anupmisra had provided a very useful link to US Army maps a while ago. Study this plate carefully KKP and areas to its north and west

A couple of squares to the northwest of KKP is Yarkhand River. 4 squares to the west of KKP is Shaksgam Pass, and to the NW of Shaksgam Pass is Shaksgam RIver. Travel westwards along the Shaksgam River valley, you will see "camping grounds", and also several glaciers feeding S-N into the river. One of the is Urdok Glacier. Now follow Urdok Glacier to its saddle, and you arrive at... Indira Col.

Harish Kapadia is one of India's most highly regarded mountaineers right now, and he was given permission by IA to mount an expedition - he went up the Shyok River valley, to Gapshan, then to Teram Shehar Glacier (which he describes as a flat plateau), and thence to Siachen Glacier. While near Gapshan, he describes the view over Shaksgam Pass. Shaksgam Pass is one of the lesser known passes on the Silk Route, and it offers a gentle access right to Yarkhand River.

All of this is stuff for you to study in google 3D, now that I have oriented you to the strategic landmarks in the area.

What does this mean? It means that the Chinese have easy, almost motorable access right up to the northern access points to Siachen Glacier. If they try to do anything funny, IA will slaughter them because it controls Shaksgam Pass, which gives easy oversight of Yarkhand River headwaters and Shaksgam Valley. IA of course also guards Teram Shehar plateau, which is the easiest access to the entire glacier. But if India loses control over DBO, then a huge gateway to Siachen Glacier gets opened, and Indian positions on Siachen will be extremely vulnerable to not just a Chinese attack, but to a joint attack by China and the Pakis. That's why DBO protects Siachen, and vice versa.

1) Which retd. generals said that YIP? any links
2) I checked your theory with someone from IA ( retd)..he said no LARGE body of troops on foot can make it into siachen from north ( its a heavily glaciated area ) Till which point is the motorable road as per u?? as per him u can enter siachen thru passes ..( which are controlled by IA)... Dont misconstrue that there is no strategic loss if DBO goes ... was just checking ur theory.

[Y I Patel]

^^^ If the balloon does go up, my fondest wish is that IN does a number on Djibouti. They can keep pitching tents on Finger 4 till kingdom come

Aren't the Chinese perched on Coco islands? A quiet operation to clear that area would be better.

The naval strike should be as loud and public as possible. The idea is to compel PLAN to evacuate from the Indian Ocean region

[idan]

It defies all conventional and economic wisdom to think of CPEC as a route for Chinese goods to Gwadar. The distance is so far and the manufacturing bases of China in it's eastern seaboard, It would be a trek halfway around the world and Karakoram Highway with long stretches of extremely vulnerable highway where landslides and single lane traffic is the norm of the day. The cost of transporting even simple things would be prohibitive and far more than the manufacturing costs. Chinese have realised CPEC is a huge mistake and therefore want access to Indian ports through Ladakh and the excellent Indian road infrastructure in the hinterland.

So, the idea of Chinese transporting goods via KKH-CPEC to Gwadar is silly but OTOH them doing the same through Ladakh (after, what? fighting for it and occupying it?) and going down from there into the Indian road network into Kolkata, Paradip and Vizag harbors is an eminently sensible idea?

The route to Kolkata, Paradip, Vizag is not through Ladakh but Kunming, Myanmar and Bangladesh or even Arunachal, Assam or Sikkim and that connects to Yunan Province.

[Y I Patel]

...
1) Which retd. generals said that YIP? any links
2) I checked your theory with someone from IA ( retd)..he said no LARGE body of troops on foot can make it into siachen from north ( its a heavily glaciated area ) Till which point is the motorable road as per u?? as per him u can enter siachen thru passes ..( which are controlled by IA)... Dont misconstrue that there is no strategic loss if DBO goes ... was just checking ur theory.

manjgu - regarding (1), there are several articles that point to the threat to Siachen and Nubra Valley if DBO is lost, and of Chinese intentions to link up with Pakis via Nubra valley. That is what I am talking about when I say retired generals.

(2) is the bigger question. Motorable access is a not all the way obviously, but is an indicator of ease of access and defensibility in general. It is possible to have motorable access up the Shaksgam Valley via Yarkhand River headwaters, although a road would have to be built. This would be no different that the Pakis having a huge advantage because they have motorable access all the way up to the snout of Baltoro Glacier (that comes down from Bilafond La). Easy access is potential motorable access to the snouts of the glaciers leading up to the northern approaches, which also implies easier access to arty and helicopters. And large numbers of foot troops would not be required - contrast to the current situation for IA, where northern glacier posts have to be supplied across 75 kms of glaciated terrain and it takes foot patrols 2-3 weeks (I believe) to reach Sia La or Indira Col. I have no idea how many IA soldiers serve on actual posts of the Sia La complex (including Indira Col), but I am pretty sure the huge bulk required are for logistics support and reserves, and only a small fraction actually mans the northern glaciers posts for their short tenures there. I compare that to the northern approaches via the glaciers feeding into Shaksgam River to make my point about why the Chinese would have much easier access to the northern Siachen glacier via Shaksgam Valley. And if DBO is lost, via the Teram Shehar plateau. Hope this clarifies what I mean to say...

[Philip]

BK has been hawkish and critical of the CSG that has advocated "jaw-jaw" whenever the PRC has intruded across the LCA.
I wonder whether 2-3 weeks is sufficient enough time for war preparations by our military,but having thrown down the gauntlet we have no alternative but to prepare to oust the PLA if the status quo ante is not adhered to.Any retreat on this challenge to the PRC will be a huge loss of face for us.

Don’t miss this opportunity, Modiji, warn China of military action and execute it!
https://bharatkarnad.com/

Xcpt:
But to get to the more urgent point: With China rattled and besieged on all fronts and stretched militarily in the east and the west, it is in no position to engage in all out hostilities in Ladakh. Now is therefore the time, an opportune one, for Delhi to trash all the ridiculous understandings to-date, end talks at all levels, and to announce a time limit of two-three weeks, starting now, for the PLA to get the hell out of Indian territory. And, in this regard, to issue a clear and public warning to Beijing, and so communicate it to the world so that international pressure can be mobilized, that the Indian armed forces will undertake limited military operations using all conventional means at their disposal to vacate every last square inch of Chinese troops come what may, and at whatever cost. The PLA has to unconditionally and voluntarily restore the status quo ante that foreign minister Jaishankar has already formally demanded, or be forced to do so. The Modi regime should follow up with the facilitation of high paced preparations by the Indian military for war backed, as I have suggested in earlier posts, by moving Agni missiles to the theatre and ordering the Arihant SSBN on patrol to loiter in its launch area just in case and, at the end of the 2-3 week deadline, to initiate without ado the promised military actions. The international community will sympathize with India and press Beijing to get out and keep out of Indian Ladakh.

[samirdiw]

This is only possible due to our fearfullness (yes) to attack first. Otherwise having our troops close to the border would be good if we plan to attack. So Chinese are making a mistake but we convert that to a brilliant move (like in chess) due to our unwillingness to take the tricky but right move (attack first when conditions are right).

With all due respect sir, no sensible PM of India would "attack" first and start a war which he/she cannot control. I don't know why people think we are ready to attack first and consolidate without any consequences. For a country that has 80 crore people being given free grain at this point in time,I don't think the PM of the country would be thinking about starting a war as an option. We will avoid all war not because we are pacifists but simply because we cannot afford it. We are barely able to afford what we can defend.

When we become first world country, then we can talk about starting a war etc. At this point in time, that option IMHO is not there, unless there is an existential threat to the nation. All this Chankian thought on war completely ignores the fact that we are a developing country that needs to make sure its citizens get good health/education and enough to eat first and a much higher quality of life. Until that happens, we will always be on the defensive unless there is an existential threat.

When looked at from only a point in time what you say makes sense. We should spend time on poor. When looked at from a historical sense it becomes more and more clear that our problems are due to lack of ambition to be no 1. China, USA, Russia, US, France, Germany, Japan all have tried or try to be no.1 and that is what pushes them to progress and richness. Have you seen some of the poorer nations they lack ambition trying to do just basic stuff and counter to logic its people remain in poverty for ever. Having ambition pushes countries to not accept status quo and drive their own fate. Do these countries make mistakes sure they do but they also give their countrymen a chance to be at the top. Look at our past and you will understand what it means. Had we explored outwards there would have been less interest in other countries to try to mess with us. Instead we will be proud of not attacking anyone..have we thought its not easy to attack. It takes a lot of guts and planning and single minded focus to be at the top.

Today we will not attack because we are poor, tomorrow we will not attack because we are middle class and so on.

Even a poorer country like Pakistan has avoided lot of problems for itself by creating a threat of attacking first. By removing that possibility we actually increase the risk to our defense have we thought of that? Attack first doesn't mean be unprepared and threaten the Chinese. It is the mindset.

There are more problems that could have its origins in thinking only about short defense wars. Its quite likely that our defense production problems might be because of this but probably needs to be investigated further. All the major countries USA, China, Russia, Germany, Japan, France, Israel that have a robust defense industry have a history of being attack minded. A defense oriented country has no such need. Think about India with a aggressive mindset to capture territory. Could the armed forces fulfill that political drive in that case with a few shiny import weapons? Of course not. They will be pushing the defense industries to churn out weapons or the political and public need to be at the top would not be met. A lot of our economic and military problems come from the same defensive mindset over the centuries. History is bound to repeat for those who don't learn from it.

We should either try to be number 1 or else will be a ..... for some other country, it could be USA today or China tomorrow. For all this talk of independence if China attacks us wouldnt we turn to the USA? For all its nonsense Chinese at least get the respect of the west for that (to try to be no. 1). We get nothing by this we don't attack, you don't attack everyone live happily attitude.

[KLNMurthy]

Gyan, *do not twist words*. Nobody said that.

Ok, fair enough. What was actually Lt Gen N concrete suggestions?

My whole point is that comments, interviews & leaks to media seem to indicate that there is no planned escalation ladder.

Its not an issue of bravery or getting disheartened, the point is about taking well thought out steps, what ever they are!

I watched the video. From my takeaway, nothing was said by anyone about a planned escalation ladder, one way or the other. It makes sense to me that a serious military-adjacent think tank (whose primary charter is to understand the Chinese) won't be loosely and openly talking about specifics of escalation ladders. They will choose their words with care and use them sparingly, knowing that those who matter on the enemy's side are paying attention.

What Gen. N said was, we do know how to make Chinese go back after talks, we have done it before Sometimes it takes years but we do succeed. What I took away from it was, don't take us Indians to be bakras whom the Chinese will just take for a ride in talks. Cdre. Wasan was more focussed on decoupling and hurting the enemy with economic warfare. Neither Narasimhan nor Wasan talked about escalation or kinetic military action or any such thing. They didn't rule it out either.

To me, the two things are not contradictory, they are complementary. Taken together, this is what I thought it means: we can keep doing chai-biskoot while coolly building infra, building and deploying capabilities, and tightening economic screws. And if China starts something, the military is in a position to hit them back.

That strategy is a sensible one, though it may not have enough macho dishum-dishum for some. It keeps our powder dry and lets the Chinese make the mistakes. If they wise up and don't make that mistake, well and good. If they do, we are ready.

[Manish_Sharma]

TWITTER
@SauravJha1618

Siachenization of the LAC in Eastern Ladakh is a losing strategy. Basically, instead of getting the PLAGF to deploy, this approach will mean that it is rather India which ends up postured in adverse weather while the PLAGF lives in the comfort of rear barracks.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/128 ... 28992?s=19
___________________________

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/128 ... 21888?s=19

It costs 4 times as much to sustain a soldier on the Tibetan plateau as compared to in the plains. So, despite the resources at its disposal, Beijing will not be very keen to maintain sizeable defensive deployments throughout the year. Right now, it doesn't have to even bother.

________________________

India's strength: Soldiers
India's weakness: Logistics
China's strength: Logistics
China's weakness: Soldiers
Firepower, INEW etc. is all fine but effects of the same are dampened by terrain
India must find a way to get our soldiers to 'greet' their soldiers in large gatherings

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/128 ... 56640?s=19

[ManuJ]

Tell me why are we importing:-

Toys
Furniture
Kitchen Ware, Cutlery, chinaware, Glassware
Bathroom fittings
Idols, painting, decorating items
Stationery, school bags, travelling bags
Tyres, Cars, Scooters, Bicycle
Umbrella, Raincoats, clothes, shoes, sandals
Candy, peanuts,
Sports Goods


From China ??????

The right question to ask is not why we're importing from China, but rather why can't even simple Indian goods compete on price and quality with the Chinese goods? Banning Chinese imports can be a short-term fix but it doesn't solve anything in the long term.
India has only itself to blame for making its manufacturing sector so non-competitive. It's high time the politicians and bureaucrats got off their high horses and made structural fixes. Indian goods need to become competitive globally. And that starts with them becoming competitive domestically first.

[pandyan]

That's the question every single country is asking themselves

[manjgu]

...
1) Which retd. generals said that YIP? any links
2) I checked your theory with someone from IA ( retd)..he said no LARGE body of troops on foot can make it into siachen from north ( its a heavily glaciated area ) Till which point is the motorable road as per u?? as per him u can enter siachen thru passes ..( which are controlled by IA)... Dont misconstrue that there is no strategic loss if DBO goes ... was just checking ur theory.

manjgu - regarding (1), there are several articles that point to the threat to Siachen and Nubra Valley if DBO is lost, and of Chinese intentions to link up with Pakis via Nubra valley. That is what I am talking about when I say retired generals.

(2) is the bigger question. Motorable access is a not all the way obviously, but is an indicator of ease of access and defensibility in general. It is possible to have motorable access up the Shaksgam Valley via Yarkhand River headwaters, although a road would have to be built. This would be no different that the Pakis having a huge advantage because they have motorable access all the way up to the snout of Baltoro Glacier (that comes down from Bilafond La). Easy access is potential motorable access to the snouts of the glaciers leading up to the northern approaches, which also implies easier access to arty and helicopters. And large numbers of foot troops would not be required - contrast to the current situation for IA, where northern glacier posts have to be supplied across 75 kms of glaciated terrain and it takes foot patrols 2-3 weeks (I believe) to reach Sia La or Indira Col. I have no idea how many IA soldiers serve on actual posts of the Sia La complex (including Indira Col), but I am pretty sure the huge bulk required are for logistics support and reserves, and only a small fraction actually mans the northern glaciers posts for their short tenures there. I compare that to the northern approaches via the glaciers feeding into Shaksgam River to make my point about why the Chinese would have much easier access to the northern Siachen glacier via Shaksgam Valley. And if DBO is lost, via the Teram Shehar plateau. Hope this clarifies what I mean to say...

my frnd climbed apsarasas complex as part of army mountaineering expedition ( when i am back in delhi will try to post pics which he had shared) ... he said from the top looking towards shaksagam pass is a sea of snow and is totally glaciated..vvv hard terrain... for any kind of movement... while trained soldiers can move thru but without any meaningful loads... the area north of indra col are anyway in pak/ chini hands but they have not tried any monkey tricks from that side till date. large number of troops are not required to defend but for a attacking force trying to force their way from north will require a substantial force/logistic train. The point is maps while important dont always convey the picture on ground..distance appearing short may virtually be impassable in reality ( all this info is based on discussing with someone who has been there) ..but i enjoy such discussions with maps etc. YIP thnx for posting

[manjgu]

That's the question every single country is asking themselves

no rocket science here ... price ... issue is not we cant make these but these things are manufactured in small scale industries, home factories...while chini are making them on industrial scale ... so economies of scale... there was a interesting article floating on wa about 2 pune based ( IIT grads) who have opened up a unit in china to manufacture fasteners etc on why china is factory of the world... from quick clearances to ..to easy availability of land to no labour disputes to minimal govt interference to no inspectors to quick settlements of taxes/dues/payments ..to faster logisitcs.. to superior infra.

[Deans]

They are on the ridge line at F4/F5 not F3/F4. From their ridgeline, its not possible to overlook our camp on the reverse slope of finger 3.
In the past, patrols from either side in the finger area were not stopped. The only difference this time, was that the PLA patrol was larger and did not go back, but squatted and we reinforced later. Not something easy to predict.

The F4 ridge merges with F3 ridge, what I meant was that they were on that common ridge line (sorry I don't know what the right term for this is). I'm basing it on the information here https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1273 ... 30/photo/1 . Also there have been reports of the PLA patrolling down from their ridge line positions over F3 to the lake itself.

I made a mistake in writing Finger 4/5. The `fingers' are the ridges. There is and has not been, any Chinese structure west of the finger 4 ridge.
The PLA structures - barring some observation points on the F4 ridge, would typically be on the level ground between F4 & 5. In the current
disengagement, my understanding is that some OP's have been pulled back from F4 to F5.
The larger concern I have is the importance we give to a 22 y.o twitter `analyst' in Australia, who has an agenda. Putting red dots on a map does not make him a subject matter expert, though, for what it is worth, he also shows the Chinese positions, on the Eastern side of Finger 4.