West Asia News and Discussions

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jun 2012 00:05

‘Iran, Russia, China, Syria to launch biggest joint war game in Mideast’

Political Desk

TEHRAN – An informed source has announced that Iran, Russia, China, and Syria plan to stage a joint war game in Syria in the near future, the Persian service of the Fars News Agency reported on Monday.

90,000 forces from the four countries will be involved in the war game, the informed source said.

No official from the countries has confirmed the news report, but a Syrian official, who spoke on conditional anonymity, announced that the joint war game will be launched in Syria.

I would have liked India to be part of this war game due to Afghanistan.

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 19 Jun 2012 00:09

But wont that tick off our friends in the GCC ?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jun 2012 00:15

Not really - they understand our concerns in Afghanistan and why we need to cooperate with Iran. We need Russian alliance too for our defence purposes. Exercise doesn't mean we are going to defend Syria militarily. Russia might because they have a deeper interest. Doubt PRC will do anything more.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Jun 2012 00:23

ShyamD, Have you seen this from Nightwatch on Egypt?

Egypt: Egypt's Islamist-dominated parliament, or at least its lower house, has been suspended by order of the high court which ruled that one-third of its members were elected unconstitutionally.

The court also ruled that Mubarak ally former prime minister and retired air marshal Ahmed Shafiq is allowed to run for president in elections that begin on Saturday, invalidating the law that bars members of the ousted dictator's party from participating in political life.

Comment: This is a no-brainer. If the parliament itself is unconstitutional, so are all of its laws, such as the ban on Mubarak-appointed officials.

Some news services reported that Egypt's military rulers were going to take over legislative power in the country and planned to announce the dissolution of the lower house of parliament. In fact, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces denied that it was assuming legislative authority or that it had declared martial law.

Military action. One thing the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces did was to affirm that the second round of the presidential election will take place 16 and 17 June scheduled by law. One source reported the Council was deliberating the implications of the high court ruling and had reached no decisions yet.

The Egyptian street. Incensed activists called the two high court rulings the death of Egypt's revolution. They also declared the dissolution of parliament and Shafiq's candidacy as the final steps in a military coup. Protesters clashed with security forces outside the courthouse minutes after the decisions were announced.

Brotherhood reaction. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood's (MB's) presidential candidate Mohammed Mursi on June 14 said he respected the Supreme Constitutional Court ruling that declared the rules under which Egypt's parliament was elected as unconstitutional. The Brotherhood still hopes that it might win a rigged presidential election. In any event it must lose to justify the next wave of anti-government violence which is now unavoidable.

Comment: The NightWatch position since the overthrow of Mubarak has been that no revolution occurred in Egypt. Mubarak was overthrown in a military coup, led by Mubarak's Defense Minister Field Marshal Tantawi, over Mubarak's insistence that his son succeed him as president. Mubarak forgot his roots and his son has none in the Egyptian armed forces. The armed forces leadership took action against its patron, Mubarak, to protect itself, the army and its extensive holdings.

The election of an Islamist-dominated parliament was a potentially important step towards a fundamental system change. An Islamist presidential victory would have consolidated Egypt as on the path towards a caliphate.

However, it is now apparent that the parliamentary elections were rigged. The armed forces council tried to craft the election law so that no one group or coalition of groups could obtain a working majority, as the Brotherhood with its Salafist allies did. The election law was drawn up deliberately to prevent an Islamist victory.

That was not supposed to be possible and only happened because the Brotherhood cheated by running candidates for parliamentary seats that the military had reserved for independents.

The military set the rules and has now had them interpreted in its favor by a pro-military high court. There is no soft or hard military coup because the military has always been in charge. The ruse of democracy was nothing more than a stratagem to help maintain civil order.

The Brotherhood almost succeeded in outmaneuvering the generals at their own game by manipulating a rigged political structure and turning it against the generals. In the end, the guys with the guns showed they are in control because they have the guns. The entire process has been manipulated. Legality has been nothing more than a fig leaf to cover the exercise of brute power.

The actual mechanics of counter-revolution are often difficult to discern, especially in open source reporting. But the lack of substantive political change has been obvious for more than a year.

The irony is that an Egyptian government under military stewardship is actually better for long term US strategic interests and for Israeli security than a government that is moving towards installation of a caliphate under Sharia.

Readers should expect prolonged and violent political disorders in Cairo and the major cities of Egypt.

End of NightWatch for 14 June.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jun 2012 00:50

Been watching Egypt and didn't think much interest on this in BR. It was expected and comes as no real surprise to any respected political analyst.

Basically if PM wants to do anything they have to get permission from SCAF. Therefore no revolution and there will only be a revolution if the army is removed, I said this last march. Doubt people want that as they are suffering as it is.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Jun 2012 00:53

Well it means teh "Arab Spring" was a shallow's false sighting. Overturns the Wastern commentator's credibility.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 19 Jun 2012 01:04

ramana wrote:Well it means teh "Arab Spring" was a shallow's false sighting. Overturns the Wastern commentator's credibility.

They just wanted to remove the dictators which the west supported during the cold war.
They may actually want anarchy in such countries and may be also want it to spread in the region.
From the chaos they want to build a new order.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 19 Jun 2012 01:06

But wont that tick off our friends in the GCC ?

you can continue to MUSAG

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jun 2012 02:31

ramana wrote:Well it means teh "Arab Spring" was a shallow's false sighting. Overturns the Wastern commentator's credibility.

GCC dont trust/listen to western intel because they have never understood the undercurrents in the region. And source says their predictions have been appalling and have failed to predict almost every major change in the region. And we can take that view from someone who has been dealing with this sort of thing for over 2 decades.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 19 Jun 2012 09:16

Good Riddance: Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Nayef was a menace. We should be happy he's gone, but worried about the aging House of Saud he leaves behind.

The Underestimated Prince Nayef: Saudi Arabia’s crown prince is dead. He will be missed far more than most observers of the kingdom will admit.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Jun 2012 15:43

The Arab Spring plan was to replace aging and unpopular western supported dictators with new faces,also supported by the west.Culling deadwood so to speak.However,it has especially in Egypt,spectacularly backfired,and no doubt will do so similarly in other ME nations.The US is now desperately trying to prop up the Syrian rebels before Assad exterminates them wholesale with the most extreme prejudice.It is now a prestige issue between the US and Russia,whether assad survives or not.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 19 Jun 2012 18:34

Philipji. I have a different proposition. West want to remove monolithic power icons, replacing them with multilateral power heads. Since West keeps records of all financial transactions, all it needs to do is a controlled release of information, so that a particular nation's energy is wasted in in-fighting, rather than projection or for other purposes. Remember, all of them Gadafi, Mubarak to Asad, all are monolithic powers, who may be tempted to flex muscle to keep with public mood. JMT.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Jun 2012 20:54

Mubarak wanted dynastic succession and that too with non-military background. He forgot all modern Islamic states are really Sultanates in suits i.e. they need leaders to emerge from military background just as Muhammad did.

This is one fundamental reason why civilians fail in Islamic/Islamist regimes.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 19 Jun 2012 21:54

meanwhile it looks the Russians are doing dhoti shivering

If true for whatever reason this would be major downhill skiing

A ship carrying military helicopters and missiles from Russia to Syria was halted off the coast of Scotland on Tuesday after its British insurers canceled the vessel’s cover, prompting it to turn back.

http://tinyurl.com/bqxcnu8

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jun 2012 22:06

All this won't change much on the ground. It's the Syrians that matter.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 19 Jun 2012 22:34

its also the perception that matters.. If you feel no support is going to reach you...

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jun 2012 22:46

They have the support now. US is providing intel support and communications, training certain rebels to safeguard chemical weapons. Israel will probably be interested to protect themselves from the chemical weapons.
GCC are able to get weapons through but they are not reaching far enough into Syria. That's the problem.
It's going to drag out but one side has infinite money. And for US this is a opportunity to remove Russian and Iranian influence for free or minimal cost! Courtesy of Syrian blood and GCC blood money.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 19 Jun 2012 22:50

I am talking about Syrian govt side not the rebels.

We are talking about Russian assistance to Syrian Govt

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 20 Jun 2012 08:03

There zero chance of Assad running away, Russia or no Russia. He has his fathers whip to his backside from beyond the grave. In his mind Assad thinks he is being gentle and liberal while his fathers terror still rules the people. He will end like Gaddafi, dead and dragged through the streets, his family scattered to every corner of the planet.

The real looser is Iran. How quickly it went from victory in Iraq to losing Iraq to now losing Syria and Lebanon. Head spinning.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 20 Jun 2012 14:40

CIA is getting ready in Jordan for post asad world. PRC is secretly cutting deals with the opposition and preparing for post Asad fall.

ASad is using allt the businesses close to him, to sustain the economy and keep loyalists happy with their lifestyles. Syria has a lot of inflation at the moment - foreign currency is scarce as it is being used to pay for fuel - Assad is printing notes (500 and 1000 pund notes) from Russia now.

Doesnt seem like there is long to go now, as long as GCC sustain this, Asad could run out of cash (unless russia or iran bail him out) and eventually some sort of coup could take place internally.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Jun 2012 22:28

ShyamD, Nightwatch on 19 June 2012 notes:

Allan Massie published an article in The Scotsman on 20 June that spotlighted the ironies of the so-called Arab uprising. In Egypt the US- equipped Egyptian Army has taken back power from elected officials. In Syria, the US pursues a common cause with al-Qaida of overthrowing the Syrian government.

There are other ironies. The Egyptian and Syrian Armies are the protectors of minority rights and Christians. The Syrian leadership may be expected to pay close attention to what the Egyptian SCAF has done, and might take comfort from its stand against the Islamists.

Unlike in Syria, the Egyptians thus far have been free of outside intervention. However, the Muslim Brotherhood is at a cross roads in its strategy. It has been foiled in its bid to take power through the ballot box. There is no chance the armed forces leadership will tolerate the Brotherhood and its political allies controlling a future parliament through elections.

Even if the Brotherhood candidate Mursi wins, the armed forces leadership has neutered the presidency by reserving to itself direct control of defense, foreign and internal security affairs and the authority to pass laws.

The Brotherhood might have no choice but to go into opposition overtly and covertly and request outside intervention. Iran would be willing to oblige.

The writer doesn't get it but the real fundoos in an Islamic state are in the military (Eg. Sadat). Egypt Army doesn't consider the MB as pious enough. That is the reason for the stalemate not Western education or arms support.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 20 Jun 2012 23:05

Thanks Ramana ji. Things still up in the air. Let's see what the MB does. I suspect they will try and demonstrate against the army and carry the people with them. But I don't think the people are in a mood to fight again. They are suffering a lot as it is

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 20 Jun 2012 23:28

shyamd wrote:Thanks Ramana ji. Things still up in the air. Let's see what the MB does. I suspect they will try and demonstrate against the army and carry the people with them. But I don't think the people are in a mood to fight again. They are suffering a lot as it is

So Egypt's Arab spring was a farce. The army happily watched as the people kicked out Mubarak and are now getting ready to rule the country themselves. The TSPA can learn a thing or two from them.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 20 Jun 2012 23:29

The main discovery of the Arab spring is the breath taking incompetence of the middle east military. Can even beat a bunch of kids with guns.

I'm of the view the situation in Egypt is merely the first step. Something like Turkey is certainly possible. The economy has so much untapped potential that if Brotherhood simply focuses on the economy like it learned to in Turkey it will steadily marginalize the military and provide space for the secular opposition as well.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Jun 2012 23:38

Nachiket, if you read thsi vry thread you will know that the Egypt was a case of Army kicking out the dynast using the public. Mubarak's mistake was he did not enroll his son in the military.

I think for all intents and purposes Egypt will sit out any ME crisis citing potential civil unrest. They are tired of being second fiddle to camel riders with oil money. So if the balloon goes up they will let them (Arab vs. Persians) sort it out.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 21 Jun 2012 00:19

Among Syrian rebels, a shared sense of commitment

By Austin Tice, Wednesday, June 20, 1:52 AM

Khan Sheikhoun, Syria — On a Sunday late last month, Syrian army forces attacked this town. By early afternoon, two children had been killed by a mortar shell, and doctors and nurses were struggling to save an elderly woman shot in the chest with a Kalashnikov. An attack helicopter circled overhead. The local rebel commander phoned his compatriots in the nearby town of Madaya for help.

When the reinforcements arrived, they focused on the chopper. One group took off with a truck-mounted Dushka heavy machine gun, racing through the streets as the helicopter swooped above. Others fired at it with Dragunov sniper rifles and Kalashnikovs.

Asked how he hoped to shoot down an armored attack helicopter circling above at 2,000 feet using only a rifle, one of the fighters grinned. “Perhaps it is possible, if it is the will of Allah,” he said.

The thousands of rebel fighters who battle daily with the superior forces of the Syrian military face long odds. Many have no military training. There’s little strategic planning. Even as international efforts to support the rebel cause begin to kick in with a flow of smuggled rifles, heavy weapons remain scarce.

And yet, a rare look inside rebel operations in Syria reveals a force that has been undeterred by the crushing tactics of President Bashar al-Assad’s army. Heavy losses in the rebel ranks and among civilians have only emboldened the fighters in their quest to topple Assad, whose government has killed thousands of Syrians while trying to suppress what began last year as a peaceful uprising but is rapidly turning into a civil war.

“I never wanted to fight. Our revolution started in peace,” said Shahm, who commands the rebel unit in Madaya.

“We asked Bashar only for our freedom. But he answered us with bullets. The first time a man hits you, maybe you do not respond. Maybe not the second time. But the third time . . .”

His voice trailed off. “I am human. I have emotions. And so now, I fight.”

That decision comes with risk. During the battle in Khan Sheikhoun last month, a sniper in a sandbagged bunker had been causing the rebels trouble. Shahm grabbed Walid, his best rocket-propelled-grenade gunner, and they headed for the bunker.

The men crept, undetected, to within 100 yards of the sniper. Walid’s first shot flew high. He calmly reloaded, and his second rocket scored a direct hit. The Syrian army responded with an ear-shattering barrage of directionless fire. Thirty feet away, a tank shell exploded against a stone wall. Shahm and Walid looked at each other and laughed.

The helicopter escaped unscathed, but Shahm reckoned the day’s fighting a success. By his count — which was difficult to verify — rebel forces destroyed a tank and three armored personnel carriers, and killed or wounded at least 15 soldiers, all without suffering any casualties.

“The children, they are a tragedy,” Shahm said, referring to the two killed by a mortar shell. “But we quickly took our revenge.”

An unlikely fighter

At first glance, Shahm, who is in his mid-20s, does not make much of an impression as a fighter. His glasses and intellectual air seem more befitting of his pre-
revolutionary alter ego — a student of civil engineering at a Russian university. He speaks beautiful English, decorated with poetic Arabic flourishes and delivered with the faintest hint of a Russian accent.

Why study abroad? His answer was simple: “Military service in Syria is compulsory. No way was I going to work for Bashar.”

Shahm, who did not want his last name published for fear that it would complicate his chances of one day obtaining a visa to travel to the United States, is the leader of a band of about 50 rebels who are with the Free Syrian Army. Madaya is under the complete control of the rebel force. The fighters carry weapons openly, and the civilians regard them as heroes.

Although Shahm has no formal military training, he said his father — who commands a rebel unit of his own and who had briefly served in Assad’s army many years ago — taught him the basics of military leadership. They regularly confer via Skype, Shahm said, planning attacks, medical evacuations and weapons shipments.

Before the uprising, the father operated a marble quarry. The business was successful, and the family is well respected in Idlib, the northwestern province that has been the scene of some of the year’s heaviest fighting.

A rebel’s evolution

The spirit of revolution runs in the family — Shahm’s great-uncle died fighting the French occupation, and his mother’s parents were killed for resisting the regime of Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father.

Driving from the Turkish border through the Idlib countryside along a back road to avoid government checkpoints, Shahm gestured toward a railroad track and related the story of his initiation into guerrilla warfare.

“I told my father, ‘Today, I am going to do something big.’ He asked me what I was going to do. I told him, ‘When I do it, you will know,’ ” Shahm said.

Hours later, he said, a train came barreling down the track bearing fuel for helicopters and tanks in Aleppo. A homemade bomb detonated beneath it.

“The same dynamite we used in my father’s quarry, I used to destroy the train,” Shahm said.

He looked down ruefully. “It is all used up now.”

Shahm sped along the pitted road at a suicidal pace. His comrades in the back seat yelled at him to slow down, then shook their heads when they were ignored. The speedometer read somewhere north of 75 miles per hour when Shahm passed a truck with mere inches to spare. Suddenly, he slammed on the brakes — up ahead, a few chickens were crossing the highway.

Shahm said he is plotting a spectacular attack. The plan involves an artillery piece, but nobody knows how to use it. “There is a defected artillery officer who knows how, a first lieutenant. I am trying to bring him here,” he said. “Also, he says he needs some maps. We are trying to get them.”

Meanwhile, Shahm’s fighters had taken a suspected regime spy as prisoner. His swollen right eye attested to the beating he had endured.

Shahm responded with difficulty to questions about the prisoner’s treatment. “We are not killers. We are not like Assad,” he said. “But this man, he used to be one of us. And he was responsible for the deaths of more than 10 men. Our friends. Sometimes in war, you must set your principles and your education aside.”

He sounded like a man trying to convince himself.

Later that night, long after most of the others had gone to sleep, Shahm stayed up sitting by the phone. He finally received long-awaited word that a weapons shipment had arrived. At the urging of one of his men, he relented and lay down to sleep for a few hours.

His last words of the night were a protest. “The more you sleep, the less you fight.”

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Jun 2012 02:41

Western reporter upto usual tricks. Glorifying terrorists.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 21 Jun 2012 04:13

very much true ramana saar...
The western, particularly the US, media's bias is too glaring.
Even the last straw, that is NPR, is now batting for the State dept shamelessly...
their reports' trembling voice (certainly coached to give a grim picture) to report
rebel casualties is too obvious......It is just amazing that when it comes to protect
their critical national interest how amazingly they all, from CNN to NPR, gel together.
They criticize GoTUS on smaller aspects to project their neutrality........
[edited]

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 21 Jun 2012 09:51

Political showdown in Kuwait

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 21 Jun 2012 14:29

This is turning out to be another Afghanistan in 1990's...

C.I.A. Said to Aid in Steering Arms to Syrian Opposition

By ERIC SCHMITT
WASHINGTON — A small number of C.I.A. officers are operating secretly in southern Turkey, helping allies decide which Syrian opposition fighters across the border will receive arms to fight the Syrian government, according to American officials and Arab intelligence officers.

The weapons, including automatic rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, ammunition and some antitank weapons, are being funneled mostly across the Turkish border by way of a shadowy network of intermediaries including Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood and paid for by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the officials said.

The C.I.A. officers have been in southern Turkey for several weeks, in part to help keep weapons out of the hands of fighters allied with Al Qaeda or other terrorist groups, one senior American official said. The Obama administration has said it is not providing arms to the rebels, but it has also acknowledged that Syria’s neighbors would do so.

The clandestine intelligence-gathering effort is the most detailed known instance of the limited American support for the military campaign against the Syrian government. It is also part of Washington’s attempt to increase the pressure on President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, who has recently escalated his government’s deadly crackdown on civilians and the militias battling his rule. With Russia blocking more aggressive steps against the Assad government, the United States and its allies have instead turned to diplomacy and aiding allied efforts to arm the rebels to force Mr. Assad from power.

By helping to vet rebel groups, American intelligence operatives in Turkey hope to learn more about a growing, changing opposition network inside of Syria and to establish new ties. “C.I.A. officers are there and they are trying to make new sources and recruit people,” said one Arab intelligence official who is briefed regularly by American counterparts.

American officials and retired C.I.A. officials said the administration was also weighing additional assistance to rebels, like providing satellite imagery and other detailed intelligence on Syrian troop locations and movements. The administration is also considering whether to help the opposition set up a rudimentary intelligence service. But no decisions have been made on those measures or even more aggressive steps, like sending C.I.A. officers into Syria itself, they said.

The struggle inside Syria has the potential to intensify significantly in coming months as powerful new weapons are flowing to both the Syrian government and opposition fighters. President Obama and his top aides are seeking to pressure Russia to curb arms shipments like attack helicopters to Syria, its main ally in the Middle East.

“We’d like to see arms sales to the Assad regime come to an end, because we believe they’ve demonstrated that they will only use their military against their own civilian population,” Benjamin J. Rhodes, deputy national security adviser for strategic communications, said after Mr. Obama and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir V. Putin, met in Mexico on Monday.

Spokesmen for the White House, State Department and C.I.A. would not comment on any intelligence operations supporting the Syrian rebels, some details of which were reported last week by The Wall Street Journal.

Until now, the public face of the administration’s Syria policy has largely been diplomacy and humanitarian aid.

The State Department said Wednesday that Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton would meet with her Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, on the sidelines of a meeting of Asia-Pacific foreign ministers in St. Petersburg, Russia, next Thursday. The private talks are likely to focus, at least in part, on the crisis in Syria.

The State Department has authorized $15 million in nonlethal aid, like medical supplies and communications equipment, to civilian opposition groups in Syria.

The Pentagon continues to fine-tune a range of military options, after a request from Mr. Obama in early March for such contingency planning. Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told senators at that time that the options under review included humanitarian airlifts, aerial surveillance of the Syrian military, and the establishment of a no-fly zone.

The military has also drawn up plans for how coalition troops would secure Syria’s sizable stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons if an all-out civil war threatened their security.

But senior administration officials have underscored in recent days that they are not actively considering military options. “Anything at this point vis-à-vis Syria would be hypothetical in the extreme,” General Dempsey told reporters this month.

What has changed since March is an influx of weapons and ammunition to the rebels. The increasingly fierce air and artillery assaults by the government are intended to counter improved coordination, tactics and weaponry among the opposition forces, according to members of the Syrian National Council and other activists.

Last month, these activists said, Turkish Army vehicles delivered antitank weaponry to the border, where it was then smuggled into Syria. Turkey has repeatedly denied it was extending anything other than humanitarian aid to the opposition, mostly via refugee camps near the border. The United States, these activists said, was consulted about these weapons transfers.

American military analysts offered mixed opinions on whether these arms have offset the advantages held by the militarily superior Syrian Army. “The rebels are starting to crack the code on how to take out tanks,” said Joseph Holliday, a former United States Army intelligence officer in Afghanistan who is now a researcher tracking the Free Syrian Army for the Institute for the Study of War in Washington.

But a senior American officer who receives classified intelligence reports from the region, compared the rebels’ arms to “peashooters” against the government’s heavy weaponry and attack helicopters.

The Syrian National Council, the main opposition group in exile, has recently begun trying to organize the scattered, localized units that all fight under the name of the Free Syrian Army into a more cohesive force.

About 10 military coordinating councils in provinces across the country are now sharing tactics and other information. The city of Homs is the notable exception. It lacks such a council because the three main military groups in the city do not get along, national council officials said.

Jeffrey White, a defense analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who tracks videos and announcements from self-described rebel battalions, said there were now about 100 rebel formations, up from roughly 70 two months ago, ranging in size from a handful of fighters to a couple of hundred combatants.

“When the regime wants to go someplace and puts the right package of forces together, it can do it,” Mr. White said. “But the opposition is raising the cost of those kinds of operations.”

Neil MacFarquhar contributed reporting from Beirut, Lebanon. Souad Mekhennet also contributed reporting.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 21 Jun 2012 16:28

Syrian Air Force pilot lands in military base North of Amman several hours ago and is claiming he wants Asylum. He is a colonel and flew in a mig 21

Similar to Libya when those mercenaries flew to Malta.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 21 Jun 2012 20:32

Is anyone talking about the formation of these radicals in Tunisia and Libya & Egypt and Yemen and now Syria who are battle hardened and now seem to switch from uprising to uprising. IMO it is the arrival of these battle hardened types that has stiffened the FSA and pushed the Army onto the back foot. Esp. from Libya & Tunisia. A week or two back I commented on the arrival of the Libyan and almost immediately FSA tactics improved manifold and the rebels have been advancing ever since.

It is certain that after Assad this group will switch to the next unstable opportunity. Baharain maybe too small but the true prize would be Al-Saud. SA can not stand against a merged coalition of 200,000+ radicals that will be available once Syria is 'cooked'. Iran is probably immune however. In the 60'&70's South America went through similar turbulence where radical groups went from state to state destroying the Ancien Regime. Th end result today is less than ideal but S. America is probably better off.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Jun 2012 20:36

Kati, Please edit the ref to Ang San Sukyi. She was the first supported by India when she was house arrested. A generation of Indian leaders supported her. The NDA (George Fernandes) took it to high level. This caused the UPA to negelct her and try to seek support from the junta. It has now back fired, She is one of the last practioners of non-violent change.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 21 Jun 2012 21:09

ramana wrote:Western reporter upto usual tricks. Glorifying terrorists.

+1. If fighting and dying is Allah's will (similar to our everyone dies in long run - moorkha-vedanta), then perhaps Allah wished the rebel to be enslaved by Bashar.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 21 Jun 2012 23:33

KASOTC in Jordan - I think CIA is training the rebels here.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 22 Jun 2012 00:09

ramana wrote:Western reporter upto usual tricks. Glorifying terrorists.

It is masterly propagandu in support of the darkest forces of Islamism. Is there a chankian method to the West's seeming madness of promoting everywhere the same sunni idelogical al qaeda element that wants to take them out?

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 22 Jun 2012 00:49

KLNMurthy wrote:Is there a chankian method to the West's seeming madness of promoting everywhere the same sunni idelogical al qaeda element that wants to take them out?

Islamism feeds on hostility, and subsequently generates it too. It needs an Oppressor. The Anglosphere is helping create a golem and is also fuelling it. It then uses this golem to gouge out and slash and burn sections of the world which it then wants to enter.

Islamism has been used before by both the Czarist Russians as well as Briturd imperialists to hollow out sections of Asia that they wanted to prepare for their own cultural-political invasion.

As long as the Islamist 'enemy' is not allowed much success on one's home turf, they will act out on other turf, and one can control where they will act out to some extent. E.g., diverted towards India, or even make a gambit of Israel, and of course there is the sectarian bloodshed in their nests itself.

Remains to be seen whether the golem will take out its master on his home turf at some point.

India needs to give people like Zakir Naik a diplomatic passport and encourage more trips to Londonistan, etc.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 22 Jun 2012 02:05

@Carl I believe the sanskrit equivalent for golem is vibhishika. In colloquial Telugu we might call it "boochi." Bhagavatam has a tale of Durvasa creating a manlike creature out of negative energy. It is called kritya.

Looks like this narrative of trying to harness negative energy as a weapon is shared between anglosphere and the pakis but not so much by Indics (otherwise zakir naik will have been made high commissioner to UK.) This commonality is consistent with TSP and the anglos being natural allies against India which is then a threat because it has the better long-term survivable philosophy, though vulnerable in the short term.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 22 Jun 2012 03:53

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... -bomb.html
Ask India to Stop Iran's Bomb

In the Israeli newspaper Haaretz today, Kapil Komireddi argues that mining the historically respectful relationship between India and Iran may be the best way to talk Iran out of a nuclear weapon:Israel and its supporters in the West are agitated by India’s engagement with Iran, a country they regard as an irredeemable rogue state. Washington's decision to exempt India from financial sanctions on Iranian oil imports, just over a week ago, means that New Delhi continues to have a significant trading relationship with Tehran. But far from being an obstacle to peace, India’s friendship with Tehran can benefit Israel—and avert a war.In the current staring contest in which U.S.-Iranian talks can't do enough and an invasion is far too costly, India's position as a trusted Israeli/American and Iranian partner could be key in forging a deal:
The spectrum of ideas in dealing with Iran cannot be stuck between sanctions and strikes. The results of Israel relying wholly on its traditional Western allies in its effort to stem Iran’s march are plain to see, and disappointing to say the least. Israel must now start conscripting new friends to take its cause forward. At the very least, India can be a more effective peace broker than the EU. Israelis display an almost inexplicable reluctance to push India to do anything. But it’s time they realised that, as India’s reliable friends, they have earned the right to demand assistance.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 22 Jun 2012 09:27

Putin heads to Middle East
http://www.thenews.com.pk/article-55452 ... iddle-East

MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel next week to Israel and Jordan for talks set to be framed by the worsening crisis in Syria that risks sending shockwaves across the entire Middle East.The centrepieces of the trip are a visit to the Israeli city of Netanya where Putin will Monday unveil a World War II memorial and talks with Israeli leaders, followed by a meeting with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas and talks with Jordan's King Abdullah II on Tuesday.Putin is also set to unveil a Russian cultural centre in Bethlehem and open a guesthouse for Christian pilgrims in Jordan.But the visit is seen by analysts as a diplomatic mission as world powers are scrambling for a solution to stop the bloodshed in Syria.
Moscow is keen to promote itself as a major power broker in the Middle East where Putin will travel for the first time since returning to the Kremlin for a historic third term in May."This trip is obviously related to the events in Syria which have grown like an avalanche," said Alexander Filonik, a Middle East expert at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences."It is unclear what trump cards Putin has up his sleeve but the mere fact he's going speaks volumes," added Filonik.The Syrian revolt began in March 2011 with a wave of peaceful protests against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, but has become increasingly militarised over the course of a brutal 15-month crackdown.Some 15,000 have been killed in Syria since the uprising began.Moscow and the West have been at loggerheads over the conflict, with the Kremlin refusing to support sanctions against its Soviet-era ally and resisting outside intervention.
The US military said Russia was preparing to deploy three naval ships to Syria where it operates a strategic naval base but Russia has denied having such plans."Putin's visit is aimed at putting out feelers around the Syria situation and how Israel and Jordan would react to the appearance of Russian ships there," added Alexei Malashenko, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center.Russia is pushing for an international Syria conference and has already discussed that plan with Jordan which is part of the Arab League as well as the European Union, Iran and Iraq.