Bharat Rakshak

A new gaddar is on the rise.

ramana wrote:Kati, Please edit the ref to Ang San Sukyi. She was the first supported by India when she was house arrested. A generation of Indian leaders supported her. The NDA (George Fernandes) took it to high level. This caused the UPA to negelct her and try to seek support from the junta. It has now back fired, She is one of the last practioners of non-violent change.

ramana-saar, please help me by dropping the last sentence of my last post.....
(I don't see the usual "edit" key to do the job.......) Thanks.

Putin's visit ,very significant.These days when one travels,one sees many more Russians,young,prosperous and confident,symbolic of the new Russia that Putin and Medvedev are creating.Look at how he is snubbing the west by sending back the ship with attack helos to Syria ,now flying the Russian flag,giving Obama and Cameron the upturned finger!

Even Stratfor

By Scott Stewart | June 21, 2012

A video recently posted to the Internet depicting an improvised explosive device (IED) attack in Syria has garnered a great deal of attention. A Syrian militant group called the Hawks Brigade of the Levant claimed the attack, which targeted a Syrian government armored troop bus as it traveled along a road near a rebel stronghold in the Idlib governorate. According to the group, the attack depicted in the video employed a type of IED called an explosively formed penetrator (EFP). Though the video was shot from a fairly long distance away, it does appear that the IED punched a substantial and focused hole through the armored bus -- precisely the type of effect that would be expected if an EFP were employed against such a target.

EFPs are a logical tool for militants to use against superior government forces that are heavily dependent upon armor. EFPs pose a significant threat to armored vehicles, which the Syrian military has utilized extensively, and quite effectively, in its campaign against Syrian rebel groups.

Studying the IED technology employed by a militant group is an important way to determine the group's logistics situation and trajectory. It can also be a way to discern if a group is receiving outside training and logistical assistance. Read More »

... in this report asks the Q,that everyone well knows that the west are fully behind the so'called Syrian resistance and that their undercover specialists are on the ground in Syria just as they were in Libya. This time the west has the advantage of having the ultra-ambitious Turks on board as well,who have a land border from where infiltration is easy.

Putin is trying hard to stop another Middle-East full blown war from exploding.The stakes are very high and Assad has shown thus far that in order to keep his regime in power and defeat the foreign sponsored equiv. of Syrian quislings,he will use the max. firepower that he can summon up.Just wait till the attack helos are fighting fit! July is going to be a very hot month say some.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... pters.html

Syria: Russia sends back ship loaded with helicopters
Moscow has announced a cargo ship would deliver weapons to Syria under the Russian national flag despite being forced to abandon its voyage when Britain withdrew insurance cover.
By Roland Oliphant, Moscow, Ruth Sherlock in Beirut and Adrian Blomfield in Jerusalem

21 Jun 2012

The MV Alaed turned around in the North Sea, about 50 miles from the Scottish coast, after its London-based insurer withdrew third-party liability cover. The British authorities forced this move, suspecting that the ship was taking arms to President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

The Russian foreign ministry confirmed that the ship was carrying three MI-25 attack helicopters, newly reconditioned under a contract with Syria's armed forces, and an air defence system.

But the vessel, now bound for the port of Murmansk, will be re-flagged under Russian colours and then sent to Syria to complete the delivery. "[The helicopters] are the property of the Syrian side and must be returned to the Syrian Arab Republic after repairs," said a foreign ministry spokesman in Moscow.

Sergei Lavrov, the country's foreign minister, told a Russian radio station that Moscow "will continue to fulfil contracts to supply weapons to Syria".

The helicopter gunships are believed to be part of a batch that Russia sold to Syria 20 years ago. They have recently undergone routine upgrades.

Turkish F4 warplane crashed/shot down - 2 pilots rescued/captured. Iranian backed news agencies in Lebanon says Syrian Air defence shot the plane down. Turkish version says went down 8 miles short of syrian territory and pilots rescued

Added Later: Confirmed shot down. Turkish PM says Syrian authorities apologiesed

Saudi Arabia plans to fund Syria rebel army

Exclusive: Command centre in Turkey organising weapon supply to opposition

Saudi officials are preparing to pay the salaries of the Free Syria Army as a means of encouraging mass defections from the military and increasing pressure on the Assad regime, the Guardian has learned.

The move, which has been discussed between Riyadh and senior officials in the US and Arab world, is believed to be gaining momentum as a recent flush of weapons sent to rebel forces by Saudi Arabia and Qatar starts to make an impact on battlefields in Syria.

Officials in the Saudi capital embraced the idea when it was put to them by Arab officials in May, according to sources in three Arab states, around the same time that weapons started to flow across the southern Turkish border into the hands of Free Syria Army leaders.

Turkey has also allowed the establishment of a command centre in Istanbul which is co-ordinating supply lines in consultation with FSA leaders inside Syria. The centre is believed to be staffed by up to 22 people, most of them Syrian nationals.

The Guardian witnessed the transfer of weapons in early June near the Turkish frontier. Five men dressed in the style of Gulf Arabs arrived in a police station in the border village of Altima in Syria and finalised a transfer from the Turkish town of Reyhanli of around 50 boxes of rifles and ammunition, as well as a large shipment of medicines.

The men were treated with deference by local FSA leaders and were carrying large bundles of cash. They also received two prisoners held by rebels, who were allegedly members of the pro-regime militia, the Shabiha.

The influx of weapons has reinvigorated the insurrection in northern Syria, which less than six weeks ago was on the verge of being crushed.

The move to pay the guerrilla forces' salaries is seen as a chance to capitalise on the sense of renewed confidence, as well as provide a strong incentive for soldiers and officers to defect. The value of the Syrian pound has fallen sharply in value since the anti-regime revolt started 16 months ago, leading to a dramatic fall in purchasing power.

The plan centres on paying the FSA in either US dollars or euros, meaning their salaries would be restored to their pre-revolution levels, or possibly increased.

The US senator Joe Lieberman, who is actively supporting the Syrian opposition, discussed the issue of FSA salaries during a recent trip to Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

His spokesman, Wayne Phillips, said: "Senator Lieberman has called for the US to provide robust and comprehensive support to the armed Syrian opposition, in co-ordination with our partners in the Middle East and Europe. He has specifically called for the US to work with our partners to provide the armed Syrian opposition with weapons, training, tactical intelligence, secure communications and other forms of support to change the military balance of power inside Syria.

"Senator Lieberman also supports the idea of ensuring that the armed opposition fighters receive regular and sufficient pay, although he does not believe it is necessary for the United States to provide this funding itself directly."

US defence secretary Leon Panetta said this week Washington was not playing a direct role in gun-running into northern Syria. "We made a decision not to provide lethal assistance at this point. I know others have made their own decisions."

Earlier this week the New York Times reported the CIA was operating in southern Turkey, helping allies decide which opposition fighters would get weapons.

Diplomatic sources have told the Guardian two US intelligence officers were in Syria's third city of Homs between December and early February, trying to establish command and control within rebel ranks.

Interviews with officials in three states reveal the influx of weapons – which includes kalashnikovs, rocket propelled grenades and anti-tank missiles – started in mid-May, when Saudi Arabia and Qatar finally moved on pledges they had made in February and March to arm rebel forces.

The officials, who insisted on anonymity, said the final agreement to move weapons from storage points inside Turkey into rebel hands was hard won, with Ankara first insisting on diplomatic cover from the Arab states and the US.

Turkey is understood to view the weapons supply lines as integral to the protection of its southern border, which is coming under increasing pressure as regime forces edge closer in an attempt to stop the gun-running and attack FSA units.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar were all allies of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad until several months into the uprising, which now poses a serious threat to his family's 42-year rule over the country.

All three states have become increasingly hostile as the revolt has continued, with Saudi Arabia in February describing the suggestion to arm rebel groups as an "excellent idea" and Qatar having offered exile to Assad and his family.

For the first few months of this year the three states were waiting for the US to take a proactive role in intervening in Syria, something Washington has so far not seriously considered.

With a presidential election later this year, and weighed down by the troubled legacy of Iraq, Barack Obama has shown no enthusiasm for a major foreign policy play. Polling in the US has consistently shown that voters have little appetite for intervention in Syria, while officials from Washington to London and Brussels have warned of grave risks to the region which may follow the fall of Damascus.

Assad continues to cast his regime's battle for survival as an existential threat from radical Sunni Islamists, who he says are backed by foreign states.

The Free Syria Army says its members are almost exclusively Syrian nationalists who disavow the world view of jihadists who flocked to neighbouring Iraq from 2004-07. It acknowledges that some foreign Arab fighters have travelled to Syria to join its ranks, particularly in Homs and in Douma near Damascus, but claims they do not play a decisive role.

Intelligence officials say a power vacuum would provide an attractive environment for militants who espouse a global jihad world view. "The next three to six months are crucial in Syria," one official said. "The ingredients are right for them [jihadists] to turn up and start acting decisively. That would not be a good outcome."

From the start, nuclear talks between Iran and the West were doomed

The death knell was sounded over ten thousand kilometers away, in a meeting between Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin that failed to present a united front.
By Anshel Pfeffer | 22:31 19.06.12 | 0

The failure of the third round of P5+1 talks with Iran has now been finally confirmed, or as Catherine Ashton's official statement said, "it remains clear that there are significant gaps between the substance of the two positions (underlined in the original text)."

So now we are going to have a "technical-level" meeting in Istanbul in two weeks – in other words, nothing achieved in three rounds of talks, and now they go back to where the first round started - only this time, the negotiating teams have been downgraded by two levels.

Poor Ashton and the other diplomats, who missed their flight back home when the talks went into pointless extra-time this evening. They may as well have made their connections.

But the talks in Moscow were doomed already 24 hours before their official end. The death knell was sounded over ten thousand kilometers away in San Jose Del Cabo at the meeting between Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin during the Group of 20 summit in Mexico. While the meeting focused mainly on Syria - more specifically on Russia's opposition to any outside intervention that may be bring about an end to Bashar Assad's bloodbath - the fact that both the U.S. and Russia are ostensibly partners in the international group engaging with Iran, barely warranted a mention in Obama's after-remarks. He just said, according to the New York Times, that he and Putin had "emphasized our shared approach," and that there was still time for diplomacy to work.

If the two most powerful leaders in the really shared an approach regarding Iran, we would have heard a bit more about it. If they shared an approach, they would have done something together to try and get Iran to relinquish its uranium enrichment program. But they don't share very much on this issue. Russia is not in favor of sanctions against Iran, it continues to sell it nuclear knowhow and publicly affirms Iran's sovereign right to enrich uranium. While it regards Syria as an ally and client-state, Russia's attitude towards Iran is more complex. Still, at present, the backing Moscow is giving to the regimes in both Damascus and Tehran has one shared motive - blocking America's influence in the region and bolstering its own. It is no coincidence that the Iranians agreed to hold this round of talks in Moscow.

The Russian administration would have preferred for Iran to be a bit more flexible in this week's talks, since, after all, the failure also taints the hosts. But they weren't willing to join in the American and European effort to force Tehran to make the desired concessions. As I wrote here on Monday, discord between Russia (along with China, which has remained silent) and the Western P5+1 partners, and with a lack of a clear statement from the Obama administration, would be a signal of the talks' failure.

It is unclear whether heavier Russian pressure could have changed the outcome of the talks, but it is now certain that Russia's ongoing support is a major boost to their intransigent position. Just as it is one of the most significant factors still keeping Assad in power.

Four and a half months before the presidential elections, Obama now faces a double foreign policy crisis that is all but promising to blow up before the American people go to the polls. I would say it is the worst foreign crisis his administration has faced, but a Eurozone meltdown could still occur and rival the Syrian-Iranian explosion. And to make things worse, the one leader who could help him pull the hand-grenades out of the fire seems content to let them detonate in his face.

Brinkmanship, taboos: Behind the scenes of failed Iran nuclear talks

Iranian stalling tactics, veiled threats by the six powers and odd PowerPoint presentations, but nary a word about Israel in the third round of nuclear talks with Iran.
By Barak Ravid | Jun.21, 2012 | 1:54 AM | 2

Catherine Ashton and Saeed Jalili in Moscow

Iranian stalling tactics, veiled threats from the six powers, an odd PowerPoint presentation about religious rulings by Iranian spiritual leader Ali Khamenei, and nary a word about Israel: That is some of what happened behind closed doors at Moscow's Golden Ring Hotel, where a third round of nuclear talks with Iran took place this week.

The intensive talks held in Moscow on Monday and Tuesday between Iran and the six powers - the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany - ended in failure. The six powers were unable to bridge their major gaps with Iran.

A Western diplomat who asked to remain anonymous in light of the sensitivity of the talks said that one major obstacle revealed by the Moscow talks relates to the underground facility for uranium enrichment in Fordo, near the city of Qum.

According to the diplomat, the Iranians responded only in a broad, vague fashion to demands that it limit its enrichment of uranium to a level of 20 percent and move such uranium outside the country, and they refused to discuss the Fordo plant at all. The Iranians claimed that Fordo is not a military facility, so it should not be included in the talks.

"We learned that Fordo is a taboo subject for the Iranians, and that it is the flagship of their nuclear project," the diplomat said.

After ending the second round of talks in Baghdad with the feeling that the six powers were desperate to forge an agreement, the Iranian delegates arrived in Moscow feeling confident. But Western diplomats, who realized that expectations had been raised too high in Baghdad, came to Moscow skeptical and cautious. The message they broadcast was that the powers want an agreement, but not at any price.

The Western diplomat said that several times during the Moscow talks, Western representatives conveyed veiled threats and warnings to the Iranian delegation. The message was that "we are not under pressure, and we prefer no deal to a bad deal."

Western delegates, he added, told the Iranians that "packing our bags and going home won't be a problem. That won't cause anything bad to happen to us. But if you are the ones to pack your bags and leave, you'll have a lot to lose."

The six powers presented tough terms to the Iranians, and they rejected Iran's request to conduct a fourth round of talks with higher-level representatives. "Another round of talks like this one will not lead to results, so we told the Iranians that there's no point in holding them," the Western diplomat said.

They did agree to arrange a meeting of jurists and nuclear experts to conduct a detailed review of the positions presented by both sides during the Moscow discussions. But the powers made it clear to the Iranians that they "want concrete actions, not just talks."

The Iranians were surprised that delegates from the six powers managed to maintain a united front throughout the discussions. The Iranians had hoped to bring the Chinese and Russian delegates into their corner. But during separate meetings with the Russian and Chinese diplomats, the Iranians heard the same message that was relayed consistently in the meetings with representatives from all six countries.

Throughout the Moscow negotiations, Saeed Jalili, head of the Iranian delegation, tried to carry out delaying tactics and evasive maneuvers. One odd moment occurred on the second day of the discussions, when the Iranians announced that they were willing to discuss an initiative broached by Russia's President Vladimir Putin regarding the nuclear dispute.

Delegates from the six powers began passing notes among themselves in an effort to ascertain what Putin's initiative actually said. Some of the diplomats in the conference room sent text messages to colleagues outside, asking that they conduct Google searches to see whether Putin had sponsored an initiative they didn't know about.

After a few minutes of searches, it became clear that the initiative in question was actually an article published by Putin four months ago, during his presidential campaign. Putin stated in the article that Iran should be allowed to enrich uranium under certain restrictions, to be monitored and enforced by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The agitated Russian delegation hastily explained that this article was not a formal diplomatic initiative and bore no relevance to the diplomatic negotiations then underway.

The pattern of the Arab Spring has been that the only revolutions to turn violent have been the ones where the ruling family had members in command of the uniformed military.

Those are the cases where the army opened fire on unarmed civilian protesters. when that happens repeatedly its only a matter of time before troops start to defect to protect their hometown and avoid complicity in massacres, and before locals start seeking help to arm themselves. Unfortunately once things get to that level outside involvement is inevitable.

Bahrain is the only exception, and thats because most of their troops are now Pakistanis and Levantine Arabs perfectly happy to shoot local Shiites.

Dynastic police states have a hard time surviving in an era of massive, cheap information flow. You have to be some sort of North Korea to pull that off, and who knows how much longer they can keep it up with the mobile phones flooding in from China.

AW&ST has cover story on Iran seems now 2013 is the best time to attack Irans nuclear facility and its associated military facility.

http://www.zinio.com/reader.jsp?issue=416227376&e=true

Syria has shot down a turkish F-4 flying over its territorial water.

Turkey rattles sabres after Syria downs plane

UN envoy wants Iran to get involved in the peace process

REUTERS JUNE 23, 2012


Syria shot down a Turkish warplane over the Mediterranean on Friday and Ankara warned it would respond decisively to the incident that threatened to open a new international dimension in the 16-month revolt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Syria said the Turkish aircraft was flying low, well inside Syrian territorial waters when it was shot down.

With the second biggest army in NATO, a force hardened by nearly 30 years of fighting Kurdish rebels, Turkey would be a formidable foe for the Syrian army which is already struggling to put down a 16-month-old revolt.

But Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's initial comments and subsequent statement on the downing of the F-4 jet were measured in tone. He said Turkish and Syrian forces were working together to search for the two missing crew of the aircraft.

"As a result of information obtained from the evaluation of our concerned institutions and from within the joint search and rescue operations with Syria, it is understood that our plane was brought down by Syria," Erdogan's office said in a statement.

"Turkey will present its final stance after the incident has been fully brought to light and decisively take the necessary steps," the office said after a two-hour emergency meeting between prime minister, the chief of general staff, the defence, interior and foreign ministers, the head of national intelligence and the commander of the air force.

Turkish media had reported earlier that Syria had apologized for the incident, but Erdogan made no mention of any apology.

Violence raged unabated inside Syria, which appears to be sliding into a sectarian-tinged civil war pitting majority Sunni Muslims against Assad's minority Alawite sect. Turkey fears the fighting if unchecked could unleash a flood of refugees over its own border and ignite regional sectarian conflict.

Russia and China, Assad's strongest backers abroad, have fiercely opposed any outside interference in the Syrian crisis, saying envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan is the only way forward.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after talks with his Syrian counterpart that he had urged Syria to "do a lot more" to implement Annan's U.N.-backed proposals. Annan told a news conference in Geneva that he wanted states with influence on both sides of the conflict to be involved, including Iran, Assad's closest ally.

© Copyright (c) Postmedia News

Austin wrote:AW&ST has cover story on Iran seems now 2013 is the best time to attack Irans nuclear facility and its associated military facility.

http://www.zinio.com/reader.jsp?issue=416227376&e=true

Zimple strategy - keep war drum beats going make Iran spend to the hilt on defence, meanwhile sanction economy hard and eventually someone will cause some trouble inside and people will bring the regime down. Thats the hope.

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Members of Assad's inner circle 'making secret plans to defect'

Jorge Benitez | June 23, 2012
Senior leaders in Syria are reported to be exploring “exit strategies”

From Ruth Sherlock, Suha Maayeh, and Peter Foster, the Telegraph: Members of Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle are secretly making plans to defect to the opposition should the Syrian regime become critically threatened by the rebellion, US officials have told The Daily Telegraph.

Senior military figures are understood to be laying down “exit strategies” and establishing lines of communication with the rebels to discuss how they would be received if they deserted.

On Thursday a Syrian air force colonel became the first senior officer to defect in an aircraft after he abandoned a mission to attack the city of Dera’a and landed his MiG 21 fighter jet in Jordan.

The Daily Telegraph understands that the pilots of three other MiGs on the mission also considered defecting, but were worried about being turned away. . . .

[A] senior US official in Washington said some of those closest to the Syrian leader were now preparing to flee. “We are seeing members of Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle make plans to leave,” the official said.

This has even included moving large sums of money offshore into Lebanese and Chinese banks and making contact with opposition elements and Western governments.

Syrian opposition groups confirmed that they were actively courting American help to encourage more defections.

One senior opposition source said: “I know for sure there are some high-ranking officers who are waiting for the right chance to defect.

“We have names of people in the presidential palace. There are rumours that there is one who is really close to the president and we are expecting to see him out of the country soon.”

The defection yesterday of Col Hassan Merei al-Hamade raised opposition hopes that it could provoke the start of the exodus. . . .

The air force is considered fiercely loyal to the Assad regime and opposition activists said the escape of Colonel al-Hamade represented a sign that its growing international isolation was starting to test the military’s loyalties. . . .

Brig Gen Mostafa Ahmad al-Sheik, who fled to Turkey in January, is so far the highest ranking Syrian officer to defect. In late August, Adnan Bakkour, the attorney-general of the central city of Hama, appeared in a video announcing he had defected.

From Victoria Nuland, Department of State: Well, in addition to the pilot that we saw fly his MiG out a couple of days ago, our reports are that in the last couple of days we have had more senior level defections. We’ve had four senior army officers – two brigadier generals and two colonels – defect yesterday and join the opposition. So, as you know, we’ve been calling for many, many weeks on members of the military to vote with their consciences and to break ties with Assad and to refuse orders and to refuse to participate in the violence that’s ongoing. So we’re beginning to see this stream accelerate, and that’s a good thing. . . .

[W]hat we have seen, as we’ve talked about for some weeks and months here, is we’ve seen plenty of money moving out of Iran – moving out of Syria. We’ve seen plenty of family members moving out of Syria. And these are often good indications about how people feel about the staying power of their government.

CNN Pentagon:
U.S. sees Syrian military defections beginning to 'accelerate'

By Jamie Crawford, with reporting from Barbara Starr, Pam Benson, Arwa Damon and Ivan Watson

The defection of four senior Syrian military officers to the Syrian opposition this week is another sign that senior officials are turning away from the government of President Bashar al-Assad, the United States said Friday.

"We have had four senior Army officers - two brigadier generals and two colonels - defect yesterday and join the opposition," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters. "We have been calling for many, many weeks for members of the military to vote with their consciences and to break ties with Assad, and to refuse orders and to refuse to participate in the violence that's ongoing. So we are beginning to see this stream accelerate, and that's a good thing."

The defections came the same week a Syrian pilot landed his military jet in neighboring Jordan and announced his defection. Nuland said U.S. officials had not yet been in contact with the Syrian pilot, but were in contact with Jordanian authorities.

While there's no sign of collapse by Assad's most elite military units, the rank and file may be less loyal. Opposition sources say that some Syrian troops are deliberately missing their targets. U.S. officials say there is no way to confirm the reports, but the opposition forces are strong enough that Assad's most elite units cannot always respond everywhere they are needed.

“It stands to reason that if there are desertions from the ranks of the Syrian military there’s disgruntlement in the ranks. So far, it looks like a phenomenon limited mostly to Sunnis and to lower ranking officers," a U.S. official told CNN. "It remains to be seen whether the Syrian pilot’s request for asylum in Jordan will touch off similar actions.”

"We have an opposition - a set of opposition groups that is finding ways - they're not totally coalesced, but they are finding ways of organizing themselves more effectively," Pentagon spokesman George Little said at a press conference Thursday.

In addition to the defections, a senior U.S. official with access to the latest information said there's also an increasing supply of weapons from the Syrian military itself.

"They just purchase them from officers, the Syrian system is quite corrupt," said Andrew Tabler, an expert on Syria at the Washington Institute and author of "Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle with Syria." "Many times when people are stopped at checkpoints, soldiers ask if they'd like to buy any ammunition."

On his Facebook page earlier this week, Robert Ford, the U.S. ambassador to Syria, directed a post to members of the Syrian military, telling them they should "reconsider their support for a regime that is losing the battle."

Ford pointed out that the international tribunal for the former Yugoslavia prosecuted military officers for their roles in the Balkan conflicts of the 1990s, and suggested a similar process in Syria.

"I want to make it clear that the United States and the international community will work with the Syrian people to locate the military members responsible for this violence and hold them accountable," Ford wrote. "And we will support the future Syrian government's efforts to bring those people to justice.

"Soldiers should know that, under international law, they have a responsibility to uphold basic human rights and that they do not escape responsibility for violations simply because they are subject to orders."

Ford has been working out of the State Department in Washington since the United States shuttered its embassy in Syria and pulled out its remaining staff in February after the government there refused to address its security concerns.

In her briefing Friday, Nuland said there have been no reports at this stage of any senior officials in al-Assad's government defecting, but there are signs that some officials may be rethinking the longevity of al-Assad's rule.

"We have seen plenty of money flowing out of Syria," Nuland said. "We've seen plenty of family members moving out of Syria, and these are often good indications of how people feel about the staying power of the government."

Its game over if these reports are true. Source did confirm back in December that the officials/military officers were waiting to see who was winning.

Most likely the news of mass defection are just psych ops by Western Intel front ended by their media .....there could be few defection here and there but not a pattern thats rising and could over throw rule of Assad.

From the news of F-4 shooting it seems it was like 1 km from land , your navigation cant go that wrong probably they were on on Rec Mission or Probing AD flying low and fast over the sea.

Yes some NATO source confirmed it was a reconnaissance version. Their biggest problem is their lack of surveillance assets and they are begging Washington so Washington arranged for some private players to do the work

As for the defections - its still happening and has been happening. We are looking at 15% in the Golan - significant but by no means going to turn the tide. But by the looks of things - economically they are getting much weaker as foreign currency getting rare - printing of cash from Russia particularly large denominations. Eventually per the theory of revolution businessmen/regime will change sides with the frustration and losing money. This GCC fund to pay rebels will encourage the defection eventually.

What I don't understand is whoever comes in next if its a coup will have to guarantee relations with Russia and will continue to retain some relations with Iran if they are Ba'athi. Even if some democracy is created, Iran will likely have relations with Syria.

So this begs the question of what's the point of all this? So I think the GCC have to go all the way I.e totally uproot the Ba'ath system for their plans to remove Iranian influence.

Meanwhile Russia is dispatching 3 naval ships in the week coming.

Turkey is going to take serious retaliatory steps. Erdogan's minister have spoken to counterparts in Europe US KSA etc and he is speaking with turkish opposition leaders tomorrow. So they want to internationalise the incident

I think Shyam D's assessment of the the future for President Assad and the Ba'ath Party to be correct. His enemies are too many and too strong, and once the economy is ruined, all his supporters who do not belong to the same religious sect/tribe/his close family, will start to abandon Assad.

I would do a few things before the curtain closes (in President Assad's place):

1. Give the Kurds full autonomy, arm and train the Kurds, also in the use/handling of chemical and biological weapons: embed some of your most loyal military officers/intelligence officers/scientist with the Kurds with the mission to carry out attacks with nerve agents and such, in Ankara, Istanbul and other Turkish cities, particularly on military bases and academies. Give the Kurds lots of anti-tank missiles, MANPADS, RPG, mortars and other such weapons.

2. Strike a deal with the Al Qaeda: You (President Assad) provide them with the above types of weapons, intelligence and help to smuggle the hardware into West European countries as well as Saudi Arabia, and then use carry out attacks in Milan, Rome, London and other such cities.

I would use my final days to really screw those who betrayed me/Syria and are behind this "revolt". If the Europeans/Americans can use Islamists/terrorists to undermine/destroy their rivals, then why should the Ba'ath Party/Shia minority hold back in this dirty fight? Two can play the game and it seems to me that many in the present regime have nothing to lose, so why not go for it?

Austin wrote:Most likely the news of mass defection are just psych ops by Western Intel front ended by their media .....there could be few defection here and there but not a pattern thats rising and could over throw rule of Assad.

Creates mistrust within the regime and weakens its organization. Perhaps this is a call for defections instead of news coverage.

Re Turkish F4 downing . Source says won't be any military response as it is too drastic right now given Russia is in the picture. But the picture may change over time. As always media has no clue about strategy and just raise unnecessary alarm

Erdogan's best case scenario hope was that the threat of military action combined with safe haven for the FSA will lead Alawite officers to oust Asad and negotiate something with the opposition. Its just not going to happen.

Turkey has a lot of contradictory desires with the Syria situation that its trying to resolve through wishful thinking. A major issue with using the Turkish military as a stick, even a threatening stick is that (a) Erdogan is still busy cutting the secular military to size with purges of the officer corps, which means hes very reluctant to have the military's prestige enhanced by a major confrontation or operation in Syria, or potentially embarrassed if the military performs poorly because of the turmoil at the top (b) the majority of troops are conscripts so it will take a huge amount of national public support to put on a campaign of the size needed for quick, decisive results

KLNMurthy wrote:@Carl I believe the sanskrit equivalent for golem is vibhishika. In colloquial Telugu we might call it "boochi." Bhagavatam has a tale of Durvasa creating a manlike creature out of negative energy. It is called kritya.

Looks like this narrative of trying to harness negative energy as a weapon is shared between anglosphere and the pakis but not so much by Indics (otherwise zakir naik will have been made high commissioner to UK.) This commonality is consistent with TSP and the anglos being natural allies against India which is then a threat because it has the better long-term survivable philosophy, though vulnerable in the short term.

KLN Murthy garu, you are right in principle. But when the strand of hair has been cast and the demon is already on the loose, one has to do something about it to survive the course of events. According to the "jinn technology" of the Bhagavatam, the secret is that if such a demon cannot annihilate its target, then it returns to finish off its master.

The Anglosphere has unleashed this force. To "duck" its trajectory, India must do two things:

1. Resist the temptation to try to confront it with a strategy based on equal and opposite force. Hold one's ground and throw it off balance by apparent 'yielding' maneuvres, rather than stepping out to meet it or pushing it back.

2. Post yielding, direct the demon back to its maker - the British Isles. Take out the British Isles... and an important aural circuit in America's head goes quiet. Then America may come around to listening to India, and thereby move themselves and the world to the next iteration.

Just some thoughts.

There is little or no chance of a war by Turkey. The best possible solution for Erdogan's party's long term Islamist agenda is to de-secularize the Turkish army and Islamize it. Under the current pressures from within NATO to be "decisive", Saudi desperation, and Russian and Iranian fear - Erdogan can best turn the attention inwards and sacrifice the downed crew, by blaming another conspiracy by the Turkish military and putting the entire blame on his targets inside the military.

American pressure may change things a bit.

x post
A Saudi coordinated op

Posted on June 25, 2012
For Indian investigators to properly ascertain the man who they have in their custody would need them to re verify the recordings of 26/11 they have on them. The voice samples will need to be matched with the recordings before they can come to a proper conclusion on the exact identity of the man.
However the operation to bring Hamza down to India would not have been possible had India not had the support of both the Saudi Arabian and Nepal police.
The questioning of an operative by the name Ahtesham helped the police get more clues on Abu Hamza. It was found that he shuttled between Nepal, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The first of the intercepts came to India when Hamza had moved to Nepal. From Nepal he is said to have moved to Saudi Arabia and this information was passed on by the Nepal police which again was shared with Saudi Arabia.
However Indian agencies say that he was not arrested in Saudi Arabia and deported. We had information that he was coming down to India from Saudi Arabia and managed to nab him at Delhi.
India has been working closely with Saudi Arabia and it is just the begining of the many operations that the two nations will carry out in the future. Saudi was considered to be a happy hunting ground for terrorists from Pakistan, but now that is likely to change, IB sources say.

I really have problems understanding Erdogan's active involvement in regime change in Syria. After all, it antagonises two big neighbours - Iran and Syria. What does he gain? Unkil's congrats and warm hug? We all know that is valid only for 24 hrs that too if you are lucky. Furthermore, it weakens his 'Islamic' credentials as he is so solidly on the side of the 'satan' Unkil.

Not that I feel Assad has to stay...just trying to understand..

Syria and Turkey have had bad relations in the past, a sunni regime would be seen as friendly, also money aspects - More biz opportunities and pipelines from GCC through jordan and syria into Turkey. Syria would be under Sunni GCC influence and Turkey is part of the alliance of Sunni countries against Iran, so birathers onlee. They want to transform that area altogether and it has big economic potential

ShyamD garu,

When you have time, could you please give some insight on the following -

1. The inter-national equations of Shia and Sunni camps. How Shia populations of various nations behave compared to Sunni populations of various nations in participating manufactured color revolutions.

2. Why Sunni block doesn't think it is tactical brilliance to allow a Shia-bum, which will take care of their (sunni) major enemy of Y-Y combine in a MAD (I mean I-I confrontation), without wasting any of their energies. And then the Sunni-block can go on a jeehad to do Ghazva-e-Hind or whatever they want, given both of their primary enemies are taken care of.

3. What solid benefits India and Indians are expect to get in the GCC - really appreciate if you can give country by country summary. Please provide the benefits in Religeous, Political, Social and economic areas.

TIA

^^ Shyamd ji in addition to the above -
1) Is there a Sunni BLOCK at all ?
2) What does Islamist's victory in Egypt and the expected ascendance of Al-Azar's standing bode for the intra-Sunni solidarity - say between the Sunni petro states of Arabian peninsula led by SaudiA and African Sahara (led by Egypt-Libya) and then the Sunni Turks ?
3) How long before some one important in the neo-Islamist worlds points out that the King (of SA) has no clothes - with respect to Holy King's unholy relationship with the West.

Islamic fundamentalists have had a relationship with the anglos for centuries. Anglos know that there is only one way to control the mullahs, and that is to give them somebody to hurt (muslim women or kaffirs).

^ Beautiful. So we are back to mad-dog and its owner. Now what should the opponent do? Kill the mad dog and leave its deceptive owner OR Kill the owner and leave the dog OR put both the mad owner and dog to rest?

Of course there is the minor issue of the Kurds in Syria. Erdogan is probably hoping that the new the Sunni group in Syria will be less supportive of its large and unstable Kurdish population.

Theo ji, Kurds are pro GCC, but they are quite slippery as they have good relation with Iran.
The plan is to make all the Kurdish regions autonomous and connect them via rail and road, all 4 nations will make sure an independent state will not be created, the Kurds are not fools they know they won't get anything more than autonomy.
That region is going to be a flourishing hub for business. Iraqi Kurdistan is already the most stable and have Masses of oil and gas. They'll be getting apaches soon

shyamd,

the Kurds can wait till they are a majority in Turkey.

RajeshA ji, I agree it could change overtime. KRG is under US protection and closely coordinate on security

RamaY wrote:ShyamD garu,

When you have time, could you please give some insight on the following -

1. The inter-national equations of Shia and Sunni camps. How Shia populations of various nations behave compared to Sunni populations of various nations in participating manufactured color revolutions.

2. Why Sunni block doesn't think it is tactical brilliance to allow a Shia-bum, which will take care of their (sunni) major enemy of Y-Y combine in a MAD (I mean I-I confrontation), without wasting any of their energies. And then the Sunni-block can go on a jeehad to do Ghazva-e-Hind or whatever they want, given both of their primary enemies are taken care of.

3. What solid benefits India and Indians are expect to get in the GCC - really appreciate if you can give country by country summary. Please provide the benefits in Religeous, Political, Social and economic areas.

TIA

I'll make this quick due to lack of time today

1) This is a very deep question and requires a person to write an essay or a bloody PhD thesis. I have time for neither!
I really dont know where to start.

2. Your assumption is that GCC hate Israel. Have you seen Meir Dagan's interview on the subject and what he thinks of it? See his interview on BBC Hardtalk. And do you think Iran is stupid enough to kill as many palestinians in the MAD attack against Gaza/WB and destroy the islamic holy sites? They are not stupid and don't bite the propaganda and the big bravado they show in public.
Ghazwa e Hind is for Paki's and paki's only. Islamic Extremism is a motivation tool to fight and pump them up but the challenge has always been managing it after the war.
You know Iran was sekular and Jordan, West, Gulf and Iraq took on the might of Iran in 1980. Believe me the west threw everything at the Iranians - MI6 taught their Iraqi counterparts everythign and gave them all the latest tech. Gone are the days of fighting, its simply not worth it any more. Thinking and strategy has changed. You are thinking in a very ideological view, which today doesnt even exit amongst the strategists. The rulers just think about ideology only when they have to sell policies to the public - only KSA has this thinking and islamic imperatives. Its not a big issue in Qatar, UAE, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait. Go visit these countries and see how "islamic" they are and the elite are. Its just for show and its a tool for control - the strategists know that, the people don't (as always). Deep down these guys are just the same as any other regime and will do what is necessary to survive in a hostile envt.

3. Cooperation in every area. I notice you put religious first. Its been 6 years since the first strategic agreement was signed with KSA (UAE since 2002 and Oman even before that). Where are these mosques that people are talking about? If they wanted to get money into the country, the door has been open since hawala has existed, some organisations have been receiving money for a long time. the MB(they havent got much to do with GCC) (with none other than Yusuf Qaradawi as chairman) run a engineering(I think medical aswell) university in Kerala since 1950's and their charter talks about spreading Islam in India.

Then Egypt was part of this grouping under Mubarak - but look at Egypt, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman. No forceful wearing of hijab, you can find mujra clubs, belly dancing, nightclubs, prostitution netowrks run by the police and what not... these are the islamic states for you!

Lilo wrote:^^ Shyamd ji in addition to the above -
1) Is there a Sunni BLOCK at all ?
2) What does Islamist's victory in Egypt and the expected ascendance of Al-Azar's standing bode for the intra-Sunni solidarity - say between the Sunni petro states of Arabian peninsula led by SaudiA and African Sahara (led by Egypt-Libya) and then the Sunni Turks ?
3) How long before some one important in the neo-Islamist worlds points out that the King (of SA) has no clothes - with respect to Holy King's unholy relationship with the West.

1. Sort of but not really - just nations want to suck up to the most influential islamic group - GCC who keep their policies fairly similar.

2. I wanted to talk about this today but above has consumed most of my time. Basically, to cut the long story short - MB are prone to making big mistakes - if they forge ties with Iran, they will get royally screwed to find Egyptians slowly getting kicked out of GCC states where they work - the egyptian economy is in the dumps, GCC will stop giving money and funding budgets... All this means what ? Egypt have no choice but to stay in GCC camp and are not going anywhere. BUT MB are prone to making big strategic mistakes because they do have freedom of choice in their policies. Will Egyptian vested interests be stronger than MB's ideological complusions? Probably. They better pay attention to the egyptian economy or the people will kick them out..


3. Yawn, this has been made to the King since the 1920's and is not a new problem. They barely survive as it is with Washington and Iran, MB (for a long time) conspiring against them . (and some of them conspiring against each other)

---------------
Question for all you people, the most alarming estimates say Iran could have nuclear weapon by 8 - 10 months. Meir Dagan said we dont know for sure whether decision has been made for Iran to go for the bomb. If you were Israel what would you do?

Washington answer to every problem that is put to them - Not going to move until after elections. Putin wants Obama to win

Out of time - good night.

Suppiah wrote:I really have problems understanding Erdogan's active involvement in regime change in Syria. After all, it antagonises two big neighbours - Iran and Syria. What does he gain? Unkil's congrats and warm hug? We all know that is valid only for 24 hrs that too if you are lucky. Furthermore, it weakens his 'Islamic' credentials as he is so solidly on the side of the 'satan' Unkil.

Not that I feel Assad has to stay...just trying to understand..

Erdogan took half of 2011 to come to the current position.

Erdogan was Asad's best friend in the region after Iran for 10 years from 2001 to 2011. They were instrumental in Syria's economic transformation in that period.

Turkey saw Syria as its main connection to the larger Arab market both in the Levant, and down to the Gulf. That in turn enhances Turkey's value as a crossroads to the EU, Russia and Iran not to mention the Arabs.

However the Arab Spring changed everything. There's two main Turkish considerations - the effect on the economic picture, and second, Arab public opinion, which Erdogan and AKP highly value.

The unrest started in Syria's countryside and spread to the cities, choking trade and tourism. Erdogan at first acted as Asad's advisor, offering advice on a specific reform program that would meet public demands that the Baath Party's control on public life while still leaving Asad in a commanding position.

That advice was ignored, and the repression used provoked more protest rather than silencing it. When it became clear that Asad would not reform, and could not crush the protests, Erdogan's position changed.

He started to come out much more strongly against Asad, and for the opposition movement, a position that resonated strongly with Arab public opinion. So far he's played it perfectly with the Arabs, never getting too far ahead of them, and never lagging too far behind.

ShyamD ji - Thanks for the answers.

You made a few interesting points.. I have few followup questions/comments... reply when you get a chance...

1. Israel is not a strategic threat/enemy to Sunni block
So is Palestine only the reason for not officially recognizing Israel?

2. Iran is not stupid enough to indulge in a MAD war with Israel

Then why is Iranian leadership/strategic-community making Israel an unnecessary enemy? After all Iran was the second muslim state to recognize Israel after Turkey. If Palestine is the reason, why are they not showing the same sophistication as GCC?

Why is Israel so adamant about Israel's nuke ambitions? Does it mean the GCC and Israel doesn't see Pakistani nuke capability as Sunni-bomb?

3. Islamic extremism is a motivation tool before and during a war (but not after)

Doesn't it mean they have to keep the motivation alive all along to make it a tool before and during hostilities? Isn't peace the time between wars, hence the "before war" period all the time?

How do you keep extremism contained, unless you have a dictatorship? Is this why they are "selectively" supporting color revolutions in only the places where they want to unleash extremism? (something similar to undoing the safety dome in nuke reactor).


4. Ideology is hardly a consideration among strategic community

If so then why is west failing to undo ideology in places like Iran?

Then what motivates the WANA strategic community (I am not talking about the regimes)? What is stopping them from undoing the virulent ideology that upsetting their own national fabric?


5. Ideology is only to manage their local audience
I can understand this point.

So ideology is a tool to manage local audience and to motivate the cannon fodder against their enemies. Then how can this be NOT a consideration for strategic community? After all it is covering two key constituencies of any nation-state: The citizenry and the enemy/competitors.


6. KSA has (some) ideological thinking and imperatives (interesting choice of word)

I understood the imperative part. What influence this ideological thinking this has in KSA's foreign policy and strategic alignment? What are the red lines that KSA cannot cross (something like accepting a temple in its territory etc) and what are the green lines it can extend (something like publicly advising Indian Muslims to give up their claims on certain religious sites)



7. These societies have all the behavioral patterns that do not fit an ideal Islamic society (No forceful wearing of hijab, you can find mujra clubs, belly dancing, nightclubs, prostitution netowrks run by the police and what not)

This is very interesting. Do you really think some these things were not happening in the Arabian society when prophet Muhammed was ruling? Isn't Islamic nikkah (when compared with Talaq) itself is certified/glorified prostitution, given the lesser value woman have in Islamic religion?

Are we confusing the general social behavioral patterns with constitutional obligations such as secularism?


8. Coming to Pakistan

Then why KSA funds Pakistan, often going to extreme lengths? Is it on the prompting of west or due to it's ideological imperatives or what else? Why does KSA or GCC care for Pakistani existence?

Does KSA believe and consider Pakistani bomb as sunni-bomb?

Then Egypt was part of this grouping under Mubarak - but look at Egypt, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman. No forceful wearing of hijab, you can find mujra clubs, belly dancing, nightclubs, prostitution netowrks run by the police and what not... these are the islamic states for you!

every now and then my bullsh1t sensor goes off

I am not going to pretend to know about all of the above but Qatar we have some recent experience.

Friend's son works in Qatar .. Lebanese in origin and has contacts up the chain. His American girlfriend recently stepped out of their gazillion dollar apartment complex in shorts and was arrested.

Had to pull strings high up to get her released without drama.

So Qatar is part Saudi part dubai (get into an accident and only the Qatari's word matter)

and last I knew not all of UAE was a liberal paradise.

^^ same goes for men by the way.. Nightclubs do exist and so does alcohol but at the same time you get these sort of weird rules where you might get stopped for wearing shorts (revealing clothes) which they consider as crossing a barrier. As you said you haven't been There to comment.

As for the UAE not being a liberal paradise - they will limit things like Kissing in public but they allow very Islamic things such as alcohol, nightclubs, mujra clubs.
They aren't liberal by western standards but they are getting slightly closer to what they think is acceptable.

As for the accidents - same in all the countries - thats how the rulers keep power, give the locals benefits such as that - don't think there is anything Islamic to it

RamaY,

1. Yes, see Meir dagan and what he thinks about it

2. Palestine and they're doctrine is different to others. A lot of people tried to change the thinking to no avail. Once regime changes things will be back to normal . As for Iran and their nuke ambitions - they are worried about them giving cover for Hezbollah and other terror groups.

GCC and pakis have had a bomb and they have been close to war before. Israel and GCC have a good understanding today. But that may change after Iran ceases to be a threat.

3. Yes, they have to build up the ideology during peacetime and unleash it as and when necessary. But management is the most difficult part - they need a punch bag to let the monster through. This can be Kashmir, Syria Iraq, Bosnia, Israel, Afghanistan. West etc won't open it's mouth until it hit them. But it gets even more complicated because these people can turn against these govts, since 2007 there has been an effort to keep the leash tighter.

4. Iran is different altogether. Don't generalise all of them together. Today GCC trades with Israel but at the same time officially they don't allow Israeli's or people who have visited Israel. Officially no issues, they just wont let you in with an Israeli passport.
Israel will be the biggest beneficiary of peace as it will open the market and demand for Israeli goods even more.
5. It isn't at all - survival is the most important - Islam is just people's perception, or how to sell a policy to the public. Only Saudi has more islamic imperatives than other states. Their thinking is first circle - gulf Arab, then wider Arab then Islam. They Arabs first before Muslims you have to remember this

6. They slowly want to move away, but they can't move too fast because they have a very village mentality. You should see what some rural Saudis from the middle of no where think when they cross into other gulf states - they are like WTF is going on here, women driving, no hijab! The 'modern' Weekend activity is heading to Bahrain to get drunk and screw prostitutes.

7. I am not going to debate Islam - you'll need to speak to a scholar for an answer

8. What extreme lengths? The pakis were beging for cheap oil and money. They didn't get it until after Bahrain uprising. TSP is integral for the defence of the kingdom but that is changing slowly. They don't trust the paki's but they need them for their defence - thanks to US for integrating them into it.

Why did Saudi's help India with 26/11 handler? Serious question? B-ji others? (ShyamD-ji, I already know your answer and do not agree so if you wish to reply do keep it in mind)

^^ Sankuji , can i know your opinion too ?

ShyamD ji, thanks for your insights into MB in egypt.

shyamd wrote:Question for all you people, the most alarming estimates say Iran could have nuclear weapon by 8 - 10 months. Meir Dagan said we dont know for sure whether decision has been made for Iran to go for the bomb. If you were Israel what would you do?

I suspect that Iran wants a nuke at this point not to threaten anyone with (including israel through hezbollah with a nuclear backing) but rather as an ultimate guarantee to stave off future necon aggression against them.
Assuming that this thinking is known in mossad ... Meir Dagan might be airing the opinion of the block of Israelies who dont view israeli and neocon interests in common terms.

There is also the question of wether Iran will go to the extent of announcing its capability ... after acquiring it ... or if will imitate Israel in this case.

Expectation is for all this to get dragged out into Nov post US elections
'Fierce clashes' around elite unit posts near Damascus

AFP
June 26, 2012

Damascus: Rebel forces and Syrian army units waged deadly clashes around elite Republican Guard posts in the suburbs of Damascus on Tuesday, as 15 people were killed across the country, a monitoring group said.

"Violent clashes are taking place around positions of the Republican Guard in Qudsaya and Al-Hama," eight kilometres (five miles) from central Damascus, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights head Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP.

Six people were killed in Qudsaya, according to the Observatory, without specifying if they were civilians or fighters.

Fighting has intensified in past weeks in and around the capital, where government buildings and security posts are heavily defended, but the violence on Tuesday was the most intense in the area, Abdel Rahman said.

"This is the first time that the regime uses artillery in fighting so close to the capital," he said. "This development is important because it's the heaviest fighting in the area and close to the heart of the capital."

"These suburbs are home to barracks of troops which are very important for the regime like the Republican Guard. This is also where families of (army) officers live," he said.

The rebels blew up an artillery gun at the entrance to Qudsaya, according to Abdel Rahman.

The Observatory also reported that regime forces, backed by "large military vehicles," stormed the Barzeh neighbourhood of the Syrian capital, amid heavy shooting.

Elsewhere, five people were killed, including a child, in the eastern city of Deir Ezzor, where several neighbourhoods came under bombardment by regime forces.

And at least four members of the security forces were killed in a car bombing in the town of Khan Sheikhun in the northwestern province of Idlib.

Elsewhere in Idlib, the town of Saraqeb was hit by "more than 20 shells in half an hour" after midnight, according to the watchdog, which gave no casualty toll.
On Monday, 95 people were killed, including 61 civilians, as the army pounded rebel strongholds and other towns and cities.

According to the Britain-based Observatory, the government's suppression of an anti-regime revolt in Syria since March 2011 has cost more than 15,000 lives.

The unit is responsible for the protection of Damascus.

shyamd

whther its Islamic or not is immaterial to me but since they all aim to flag bearers of Islam its going to rub off

same you can claim that the rulers are benign but the public or culture demands it .. whatever.

the basic fact is that Qatar is more Saudi arabia than dubai so try not to spin it like Egypt (for now) or Dubai