2-0-1 {best case with Vijender} will see us end in the top 30.. 1-1-1 in the top 40.. 1-0-2 {worst case scenario} in the top 45.. If someone else helps along {see below} and the stars align, 27 or 28 might be the final position.
whats left: Rajiv Tomar in wrestling, Vijender's final medal color, 4x400 womens.. All three are "dont give up so soon" scenarios. Anything is possible.
The womens team will enter the finals if they dont fck up the baton xchange like they did in one of the qualifying races and if Mandeep has fully recovered. After that, one has to pray that the Oiropeans have a terrible day for a medal. Btw, the team had their best timing minus Mandeep which led to some dramabaazi as it came after some imaginary cutoff qualifying date with the IAAF. So even if Mandeep is out, the other 4 are all well experienced. Mandeep is the young gun, the power bomb so 2 speak. She did nt take part in the 400 ms all along just to conserve herself for this. Hope she does nt have a heart break like Anju. Likelihood out of 100: 30-70.
Rajiv Tomar, like Sushil, is coming to the spotlight now. There will be lotsa gazes on him. Good chances that he will feel the pressure of a billion+ all of a sudden from complete obscurity. The coach has said that Rajiv has gone an experience trip since he is in the heavyweight division. He could spring a surprise if he does nt end up facing the finalist in the first rd like Sushil. There are no seeds in wrestling matches, so anyone can face anyone even in the first rd. Thats why they have the repechage. Likelihood: 40-60.
Vijender was our best bet in boxing from the horse's mouth {the Cuban coach}. The defending OG Gold medalist and the person he beat very recently, Bakhtyar Artayev is out. he faces the Cuban Emilio Correa now. Chances are 60-40 in Vijender's favor.
All my guess onlee

. Usual disclaimers hold.
Added: OTOH, Emilio Correa now has the Dronacharya on his side. Its the Eklavya scenario. Sorry, could nt find a better one than this. Expect some fireworks in terms of verbal diarrhoea soon. I expect both sides to up the ante.