Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stability

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vsudhir
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by vsudhir »

In fact if you look at the history of governance in the world - no religion has ever managed to unite hundreds of millions. Only democracy and communism have done that so far.
'Religion; in the western sense, you mean? Democracy and communism too have 'religious' overtones, IMO.

Coz the eastern belief systems in general and the Indic ones in particular have managed to do that spectacularly without raising end-of-days visions in any quarters. Its no secret that the same wily dudes that planned and played the great game also counted on India splitting up into a 100 pieces within years of the Brits leaving. So much the easier to manipulate, dominate and asset-strip in continuation of their colonial plunder by other means, I guess. Too bad they singularly failed to understand the Indic ethos that binds Indians together from kargil to kanyakumari. Heck, even the man they thought they understood, JLN, refused to get drawn into the western bloc post WWII and instead went on a psychedelic NAM trip instead.

What Sardar Patel managed to achieve (as documented also by VP Menon) should not be understated but the fact remains that his achievement wouldn't have lasted this long but for the Indic ethos that provided superglue and allowed the super majority of people in today's India to be governed by secular law whilst assuring those citizens outside the Indic way of life - peace, dignity and security.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by shiv »

vsudhir wrote: 'Religion; in the western sense, you mean? Democracy and communism too have 'religious' overtones, IMO..

Yes but the religious overtones of democracy in the west does not stop someone depicting Jesus Christ with a hard on. In fact this is allowed as part of the freedom of secularism that those democracies provide. This is a far cry from the religion we are talking about wrt to islam.

Every religion in the world has been thrown into the scrap heap of obsolete governance systems except Islam. And Islam is heading there.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by namit k »

vsudhir wrote:
In fact if you look at the history of governance in the world - no religion has ever managed to unite hundreds of millions. Only democracy and communism have done that so far.
'Religion; in the western sense, you mean? Democracy and communism too have 'religious' overtones, IMO.

Coz the eastern belief systems in general and the Indic ones in particular have managed to do that spectacularly without raising end-of-days visions in any quarters. Its no secret that the same wily dudes that planned and played the great game also counted on India splitting up into a 100 pieces within years of the Brits leaving. So much the easier to manipulate, dominate and asset-strip in continuation of their colonial plunder by other means, I guess. Too bad they singularly failed to understand the Indic ethos that binds Indians together from kargil to kanyakumari. Heck, even the man they thought they understood, JLN, refused to get drawn into the western bloc post WWII and instead went on a psychedelic NAM trip instead.

What Sardar Patel managed to achieve (as documented also by VP Menon) should not be understated but the fact remains that his achievement wouldn't have lasted this long but for the Indic ethos that provided superglue and allowed the super majority of people in today's India to be governed by secular law whilst assuring those citizens outside the Indic way of life - peace, dignity and security.
They weren't entirely wrong on the Indic perceptions and habits of disintegration and feuds within , as was evident historically because there was none capable enough to invade India before islamics, what went wrong is that brits were late to realise that Indians wont disintegrate on grounds of 're-invasion' i.e, learning from past experiences , and they never noticed what congress,rss,arya samaj were filling in peoples' minds ,plans about new India were the inner strength of freedom struggle.
They ultimately divided it into 3 parts but a big republic was left and India was strengthening itself day by day , which they never liked,because it hampered their recolonization plans .western strategy seems to be locked at that point of disintegrating it again,even today..where porki land is their last hope to sneak in again, our today's leaders seem complacent enough to let them do so again.. may be that's a big political issue after few years, cpi wasn't smart enough to cash on us nuke deal,though it will enjoy its long awaited gains as time passes and as the pentagon/cia control more..
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by brihaspati »

RayC wrote:

If we capture Pakistan Punjab, where will they go to be the overlords that they are? It will hardly give India any strategic depth unless we are looking at it Indian Punjab centric! Or have I not understood your drift?
We get no "strategic depth" by taking Pakjab. We get a strategic liability. Pakjab would better serve as a buffer state between the badlands of a new Pashtunistan and India. IMO And we can help bring stability to Pashtunistan perhaps.

RayC wrote:
The Taliban and all these terrorist organisations are a great help to Pakistan and its Army and it has the patronage of the ISI. These are their strategic arm - covert and effective.

As I see it, Pakistan will never be able to contain the Pashtuns. Their affinity is closer to the Afghan Pashtuns!
Indeed, it is now payback time and India must exploit the situation.
Exploit the divisions in Pakistan – covertly!
There are a lot of assumptions here. Primarily, the belief that even if Pakistanis fight a war of attrition with Pashtuns, that they will not come to a compromise about joining hands to attack India. Not occupying Pakjab allows Talebs to operate up to Indian Punjab and mount attacks also on united Kashmir as part of India. There are subnationalist fights going on even now - Balochis, Sindhis, Pashtuns - but they all provide recruits to fight in Kashmir against India. Afghanistan/pashtuns before Qaeda/Taleban was as different from "after", as Kashmir Valley was different before expulsion of Kashmiri Hindus. Certain changes, especially of the fundamentalist type in popular psyche can never be reversed peacefully - unless the movement/people suffer crushing military defeat.

Allowing Pakjab to exist retains hope in its sponsors, UK, China and USA to use it as a lever against India. Who knows, we may even see USA/UK/PRC supplying Pakjab through AFG and the Pashtuns happily joining in!

Occupying Pakjab and uniting it eventually with Indian Punjab, and allowing our Sikh brothers to take care of the demography, we can socially incorporate Punjab back into India, after initial cleaning of theologians.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by shiv »

brihaspati wrote:
Allowing Pakjab to exist retains hope in its sponsors, UK, China and USA to use it as a lever against India. Who knows, we may even see USA/UK/PRC supplying Pakjab through AFG and the Pashtuns happily joining in!

Occupying Pakjab and uniting it eventually with Indian Punjab, and allowing our Sikh brothers to take care of the demography, we can socially incorporate Punjab back into India, after initial cleaning of theologians.
I believe that even the US is not and cannot be a conqueror in the model of old conquerors. And neither can India. Don't kill me for saying this - but the US is too dharmic. I believe that people have a romantic notion of what it takes to capture territory, hold on to it and make it one's own when there is a hostile population in that territory.

Let me put it bluntly.

If I was a conqueror who conquered Pakistani Punjab and wanted to hold on to it, I would not do an Iraq or Afghanistan. That is the wrong way to impose your will on a hostile population. The way to do it would be to kill and kill and kill and kill. Capturing territory means genocide. Anything less and you are setting yourself up for short term defeat.

If you kill enough people and wipe out the memes and impose your culture, you can make a dent that lasts for several centuries into the future. But for that you must kill and kill properly.

The reason why Roman Christianity and Islam were such successful territory grabbing governance systems in the past was that they set up a strawman leader ("God") who could not be arrested or brought to justice and they killed and killed and killed in the name of that strawman leader and eventually managed to wipe out all cultures/religions through most of the world.

The imperialist powers did pretty much the same thing later in the name of a king. All opponents must be killed. People must be subjugated. Exiled opposition is a liability. Political prisoners are liability. Killing is better.

Pakistani Punjab will have to see a bloodbath. If you think of the practical difficulties of bringing a hostile and indoctrinated population of Pakistani Punjab into line you will see what I mean. "Recapture" of Pakistani Punjab would be a bad move. Temporary occupation and redrawing of lines is another matter but the same problems arise to a smaller extent.

We tend to wax eloquent about Sun Tzu and Chanakya on this forum but I believe we do not give enough credit to Islam which is actually an absolutely super exposition of what it takes to gain power and stay in power. Those who talk of power and conquest need to worship the knowledge that Islam has codified as an avatar of Goddess Saraswati on that subject.

"With me or against me" is a 1300 year old principle that Bush did not invent. Hudaibiya (in BR parlance) of course refers to signing a peace deal when weak and abrogating that when times change. "Munafiq" refers to the insincere who only pretend to follow your rules.. The Munafiq are traitors who need to be weeded out. These are not just Islamic concepts - but they are fundamental pillars of exerting political power. It is worth studying Islam with an open mind out of sheer admiration for the details that have been codified.

But in the current world environment, even the great knowledge of gaining power that Islam has brought with it is not good enough to capture territory. The Taliban did that for a while in Afghanistan, but not without a wink and a nod from some of the most powerful and rich forces in the world who did not themselves have the stomach to commit the necessary degree of murder to capture territory and hold on to it.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by brihaspati »

Shivji,
I understand your reservations, and they are justified from the dharmic principles you espouse. I am not proposing genocide. But I am thinking more along lines of Ferdinand/Isabella's strategy of reabsorbing Moorish Spain. I do not want to go into details, which are anything from "nice", but they did not involve genocide - not in the sense of what you imply. This was more a pressure to "move out", either "out of religion" or "out of territory" - in fact offers were mostly to choose between the two. F/I insisted on Christianity, but in modern period a simple allegiance to common civil law and renouncing the original "faith" should be sufficient. If they do not like it they can be offered courteous passage to NE China. :)

This is of course speculation, but actual situation may force us to do things we cannot even imagine now, or are most reluctant to even conceptualize.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ShauryaT »

brihaspati wrote: Allowing Pakjab to exist retains hope in its sponsors, UK, China and USA to use it as a lever against India. Who knows, we may even see USA/UK/PRC supplying Pakjab through AFG and the Pashtuns happily joining in!

Occupying Pakjab and uniting it eventually with Indian Punjab, and allowing our Sikh brothers to take care of the demography, we can socially incorporate Punjab back into India, after initial cleaning of theologians.
What does that mean?

Also, think through, why the west has been using TSP. The reasons are rooted in geo-politics. Take some of that geography away and the value of Pakjab to the west detoriates substantially. You do not need that Pakjab population with you, not now. We cannot handle it.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ramana »

ShauryaT, All that happened when India was economically weak.
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Post by ShauryaT »

ramana wrote:ShauryaT, All that happened when India was economically weak.
Yes, but it was also about, what the west thought its core interests in the region were about and to what degree they would go to act on it.

Different reasons every time, pre-partition, for the partition, for the cold war, for access to China, the Afghan Campaign I and II but in every single instance, geography played the key role, in the final choice.

When push comes to shove, for all of India's willingness to work with the US on the WOT, geography made the difference in their eventual choice.

We have to take back the borrowed head TSP has been living on and change the geo-politics of the region.
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Post by brihaspati »

and allowing our Sikh brothers to take care of the demography,
...What does that mean?
Sikh representation to the Cripps mission: "Why should a province that fails to secure three-fifths majority of its legislature, in which a religious community enjoys statutory majority, be allowed to hold a plebiscite and given the benefit of a bare majority. In fairness, this right should have been conceded to communities who are in permanent minority in the legislature.
From the boundry of Delhi to the banks of Ravi River the population is divided as follows: Muslims, 4,505,000; Sikhs and other non-muslims, 7,060,000. To this may be added the population of Sikh states of Patiala, Nabha, Jind, Kapurthala and Faridkot, which is about 2,600,000, of this Muslims constitute barely 20 percent and this reduces the ratio of Muslim population still further....." (The Heritage of the Sikhs by Sardar Harbans Singh ji). Roughly three and a half million Hindus and Sikhs migrated from West Punjab to India and five million Muslims from East Punjab to Pakistan. The Hindus and Sikhs had to abandon 6.2 million acres of land in West Punjab, the Muslims only 3.96 million acres in East Punjab. (Encyclopedia of Sikhism - by the same author).

Any conflict over Punjab is likely to lead to collateral damages, both in material as well as population terms. We will need to "build and restore", and Sikhs by their very history would excellent leaders in both material and social sense.

Maharaja Ranjit Singhji ran a "secular" state, including all religious groups in administration, and Sikhs as sons-of-the soil would be more acceptable in western parts of a united Punjab. Many important Sikh shrines and places of religiou significance exist in Pakjab. Sikhs can be agents of social integration. To discuss more will bring in discussion of "religious" attitudes to social admixture, and I would like to avoid that.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ShauryaT »

Brihaspati ji, The history is known. Even after the 1946 elections, the ML could not form a government on its own in a united Punjab. Present reality is different. What you say about Pakjab is an issue of time. All good things to come in easy chunks. No need to eat the whole apple in one go.
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Post by brihaspati »

I mentioned the history simply to indicate motivations for a potential redistribution - thats all. :)
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by RayC »

On the issue of capturing Pak Punjab, the only 'strategic' value that it will accrue is that it will bifurcate Pakistan and this will lead to independence of the various provinces of Pakistan since they will assert their subnationalism in a more open way and finally obtain it.

As Shiv has stated, Islam should be studied in depth and not perfunctorily on the basis of the Mullahmen's rants. Political Islam is what should be studied.

However, while one would have destroyed Pakistan, there will be a whole lot of 'Bangladeshes' created - unsustainable in their independent avatar and being a constant headache for India as is Bangladesh, which blames India for all its self generated woes!

To the kitty of insurgency, one more will be added!

And some distance added to the cry - Dilli bahoot door!

It is easy to say capture A, B or C.

One requires the wherewithal to do so and more importantly, hold on to the area captured! The latter is the tough tittie!

Ask Bush.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by renukb »

On the issue of capturing Pak Punjab, the only 'strategic' value that it will accrue is that it will bifurcate Pakistan and this will lead to independence of the various provinces of Pakistan since they will assert their subnationalism in a more open way and finally obtain it.
Bifurcating Pakistan didn't help in 1971, and it will not now as well. You need to get back everything we lost in 1947, if regional stability is expected.
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Post by brihaspati »

RayCji,
My calculation was based on incorporating both Pakjab and Sind. I could be wrong. But my sense in including Sind was both to retain access to the sea and a front to the Balochs, a flank to Pakjab, as well as considering the substantial non-Muslim populations. Just occupying Pakjab will give rise to exactly what you say. Some have suggested incorporating Balochis - but I think given the state of the Balochi mind, it is better not even suggested. As to political Islam, I have tried to study this formally as part of academic collaboration with experts in the field - although humanities is not my professional line. I am very much aware of the social/psychological/group reasons behind political Islam's success and persistence, and I have quite a few collaborative papers on this. I have tried to outline our current academic understanding of this in various threads, but they have been typically categorized as "religious diarrhoea" or "degeneration into religion" bashing etc., and deleted. Having said that, my personal opinion goes against the copying of political Islam's methods, again because perhaps my definition or concept of what it means to be human does not coincide with the assumptions required to copy. There are means of disrupting the mobilization that political Islam manages, but adopting such means requires an acknowledgement of the driving forces, especially the particular role of ideology and memes. This is something we are most reluctant to do. By disjointing the two - ideology from specific manifestation, like TSP, we miss a crucial link - and think that each manifestation is a special case. This is what protects the driving engine, and the whole thing regenerates and persists.

Renukbji,
I am not sure that the entire area lost in 1947 could be recovered. It would be good if possible, but parts of the north west - essentially west of the Indus could be dicey. Having said that, if we can see it to be feasible to hold on to given the circumstances in which we hope to achieve it - should be given a serious try.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ramana »

Acharya wrote:http://www.newscentralasia.net/Articles ... s/392.html
American Dilemma: The US military is burning nearly 600000 gallons of fuel per day. More than 80% of this comes from Pakistan, through 700 or so road tankers that are vulnerable to all kinds of attacks on their long journey from facilities in Pakistan to American bases in Afghanistan.

The reserves in Afghanistan will suffice for only two weeks if the supply line is disrupted.

Aware of this, the Americans have been trying to create an alternate route through Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Even if the alternate route is opened fully, it is very long and inefficient and there are risks that Americans are not in a position to counter at present.

There is need to abandon the Pakistan route but there is nothing to replace it.

Bifurcating Pakistan: The solution that is agreed to nearly unanimously by the American policymakers is that Pakistan must be split into two parts: the Americans would like Balochistan province to become an independent country and they don’t care where the rest of Pakistan goes.

In fact, it is a goal the Neocons have been pursuing for a long time. A few years ago, they pumped Baloch insurgency but it proved an exercise in futility.

Vickers, in one position or the other, has never been far away from the process of decision-making. He sees many advantages in splitting Pakistan into two parts.

Benefits of bifurcating Pakistan: From American point of view, there are many benefits in creating an independent Balochistan:

* An independent Balochistan will be an ideal territory to keep supply lines open to the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan.
* Independent Balochistan will provide Americans with excellent locations for putting up their military and naval bases to police the Persian Gulf and make sure that no other naval power including India, China and Russia ever gets upper hand in the Indian Ocean.
* An independent Balochistan will be the place from where Americans can maintain permanent pressure on Iran, even in the remote possibility that they may have to eventually leave Iraq.
* China and Russia will be denied any access to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean.
* The Gulf countries will remain dependent on the USA for export routes of their hydrocarbon products.
* Full control of the entrance to the Gulf will enable USA to allow or deny oil flow by tankers to any country in the world.
* Central Asia is a land-locked region and the whole region would be on the mercy of the United States.
* If Balochistan is detached from Pakistan, the rest of Pakistan is likely to exist as a perpetually unstable entity, creating a permanent source of trouble for India. This fits nicely with other American plans because India has come very close to becoming an economic rival of the United States.

Why Mumbai incident: One doesn’t need to be an exceptionally brilliant person to understand immediately that Pakistan had nothing to gain and everything to lose from Mumbai incident.

If we assume that it was done by a jihadi outfit on its own, it would be the most foolish thing to do because of the consequences that should have been discernible at the time of planning.

However, if we agree to the assertion that Vickers planned it, through proxy forces, for advancement of American objectives in the region, everything suddenly makes sense.

Here are some pointers:

* One logical consequence is that India and Pakistan would probably go to war or at least move their forces to the borders in a position of war readiness. Every expert knows that keeping forces ready for war is nearly seven to eight times more expensive than keeping them in the barracks. This is an excellent way to make sure that Indian and Pakistani economies would be crippled for a long time to come.
* India and Pakistan are negotiating for two gas pipelines, one from Iran and the other from Turkmenistan. There are also plans to put oil pipelines from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to South Asia. USA would use every method to deny India the energy resources of Central Asia and IranIndia is not what USA has in mind. The tide has reversed already and it is not to the liking of the Americans. Students from the United States are now coming to India, Indian businessmen are giving tough time to American corporations worldwide, and India has entered some of the export markets that were traditionally dominated by the west. In short, a weak India will be acceptable as a friend but a strong India will be a pain in the neck for Americans. because an economically strong
* The global financial and economic crisis was triggered by the follies and dishonest practices of the American corporations; the American economy is still in free fall and the end is nowhere in sight. On the other hand, the Indian economy has not suffered a proportionately comparative loss. The steep fall on one side and the lesser fall on the other means that the real gap between the American and Indian economies has somewhat narrowed down because of the twin financial and economic crises. Mumbai incident is an attempt to remedy the situation in favour of the United States.
* In a way, Mumbai incident is similar in concept to Bin Laden tapes. With dependable regularity, Bin Laden tapes appeared whenever Bush was going through difficult times. The Mumbai incident magically appeared when Americans needed to remove Pakistani forces from the Afghan border so that American forces could operate freely in the Frontier province of Pakistan, and push for bifurcation of Pakistan to solve their supply problems permanently.



Reaction in India: As far as we have been able to confirm through our sources, Indian leadership is trying to handle the situation in a calm and measured manner. However there are two kinds of pressures on the Congress government: From one side they are being pressed by BJP and other parties through public protest, and on the other side they are being pressured by the Americans to act fast and hard against Pakistan.

For instance, we know for sure that the name of Hamid Gul was included in the list of people wanted by India on the insistence of Americans. India never wanted to put Gul on the list. Americans forced them to include his name because it is an impossible demand; refusal by Pakistan to hand over Gul would give opportunity to Americans to push India for war.

India-Pakistan confrontation: As mentioned, Americans have maneuvered India to place impossible demands on Pakistan. The next logical step would be to encourage India to deploy its forces along the Pakistan border, forcing Pakistan to do the same on its side of the border.

By any degree of confrontation, both the countries would be net losers; the only winner would be the United States.

After reading Gen Paddy's book this possiblity is always on the back of my mind. And the need to appease Omar Khalidi.

There is still the matter of Heywood's Wifi acct being hacked in Mumbai.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by krisna »

Benefits of bifurcating Pakistan: From American point of view, there are many benefits in creating an independent Balochistan:

* An independent Balochistan will be an ideal territory to keep supply lines open to the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan.
* Independent Balochistan will provide Americans with excellent locations for putting up their military and naval bases to police the Persian Gulf and make sure that no other naval power including India, China and Russia ever gets upper hand in the Indian Ocean.
* An independent Balochistan will be the place from where Americans can maintain permanent pressure on Iran, even in the remote possibility that they may have to eventually leave Iraq.
* China and Russia will be denied any access to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean.
* The Gulf countries will remain dependent on the USA for export routes of their hydrocarbon products.
* Full control of the entrance to the Gulf will enable USA to allow or deny oil flow by tankers to any country in the world.
* Central Asia is a land-locked region and the whole region would be on the mercy of the United States.
* If Balochistan is detached from Pakistan, the rest of Pakistan is likely to exist as a perpetually unstable entity, creating a permanent source of trouble for India. This fits nicely with other American plans because India has come very close to becoming an economic rival of the United States.
1) Why only bifurcation why not split bakistan into more-3-5 pieces. India may have to deal with refugees.
2) There will be trouble for India, but as breakaway lands are smaller it is more easier for India to have a hand in the internal affairs of these states. Trouble will also be for USA also if their personnel are in the region. Importantly there will be internal fights among these breakaway states that will keep them occupied. Ulema is less powerful than the local issues(culture/ethnicity etc) as all are followers of piss only.
2) Balochistan is rich in natural resources, what is the guarantee that they will remain loyal to uncle sam. Regional players of the day will also exert their own influence.
3) Idea is good on paper but reality is something only time will tell.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by brihaspati »

By any degree of confrontation, both the countries would be net losers; the only winner would be the United States.
I would be rather careful of such a remark - it could be a pointer to the source of this piece, another psy-ops to prevent India from mobilizing to do anything that threatens/destabilizes TSP.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Keshav »

brihaspati wrote:I would be rather careful of such a remark - it could be a pointer to the source of this piece, another psy-ops to prevent India from mobilizing to do anything that threatens/destabilizes TSP.
Better to give him the benefit of the doubt and argue it on its own merits. We should be talking about all of the possible ways to tackle terrorism in Pakistan and through that, expand Indian national interest.
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Post by samuel »

King of England Honors Rajah to Combat Russia, May 17, 1931 (Chicago Tribune). Behind the announcement a few days ago that Sir Hari Singh, maharajah of Kashmir, had been made personal aid de camp to King Emperor ...
Any chance anyone has this article I need to read for my research. It can be obtained for a price, but the costs will add up as I look at my stack and thus wonder...

S
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Post by ramana »

Samuel what you really need are the refs to the British fight with Russia post Revolution. I suggest you find a book "Man called Interpid" by William Stpehenson. It has details of the British secret services fights between the two WWs. There was an operative who managed the fight in teh Central Asian stans.

And read those two google books on British Foreign Policy that are posted in the Futre Scenarios thread.
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Post by samuel »

OK, thanks, I will.

I started with a hypothesis that Pakistan was created to prevent Russia from getting to the Arabian Sea, East Bengal was collateral. This cut out was eminently manageable because the deobandis were given new jihadi targets via Jinnah who was the perfect via media.

Another hypothesis is that the first Kashmir snatch was a bit too quick even for the new Pakistan (it was orchestrated via Messervy). This was expressly meant to eliminate any linkup with CAR. I was looking for evidence of this, and have come close, namely that the British had intended to deliver Kashmir to Pak but for the last minute flip by the Maharaja. There was a huge degree of cultivating of Kashmir going on, as the article I cited alludes to.

Later, the UK handed off Pak to the US for safe-keeping as the cold war continued the great game. It has done the same with other "assets." There is obviously a fleeting wish for the empire to strike again in British quarters. That's besides the point here of course, what is is to trace the real creation of Pakistan, the cultivation of Nehru and Jinnah and a whole host of others, and present that in an easily digestible way using the very words that are in print. Of course, I am prepared for the hypotheses to be proven wrong during the research.

So, I've been scouring all the newspapers I can get my hands on (much better than reading current news, in fact, which seems just like a damn repeat of the same story back in time).

S
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by shiv »

samuel wrote:OK, thanks, I will.

I started with a hypothesis that Pakistan was created to prevent Russia from getting to the Arabian Sea, East Bengal was collateral. This cut out was eminently manageable because the deobandis were given new jihadi targets via Jinnah who was the perfect via media.

Another hypothesis is that the first Kashmir snatch was a bit too quick even for the new Pakistan (it was orchestrated via Messervy). This was expressly meant to eliminate any linkup with CAR. I was looking for evidence of this, and have come close, namely that the British had intended to deliver Kashmir to Pak but for the last minute flip by the Maharaja. There was a huge degree of cultivating of Kashmir going on, as the article I cited alludes to.

Leter, the UK handed off Pak to the US for safe-keeping as the cold war emerged, but that war itself, the great game is very old. It has done the same with other "assets." There is obviously a fleeting wish for the empire to strike again in British quarters. That's besides the point here of course, what is is to trace the real creation of Pakistan, the cultivation of Nehru and Jinnah and a whole host of others, and present that in an easily digestible way using the very words that are in print. Of course, I am prepared for the hypotheses to be proven wrong during the research.

So, I've been scouring all the newspapers I can get my hands on (much better than reading current news, in fact, which seems just like a damn repeat of the same story back in time).

S

Samuel - all you need to do for a confirmation of your hypothesis is to get hold of the book "In the shadow of the Great Game" by Narendra Singh Sarila. If you have not alerady read it - it makes an exellent read.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by samuel »

Many thanks, I will. This game needs to be changed in its entirety and we must not just find a way to "play it better." All this begins from a valid alternative to the heartland theory, which I hope we'll hack in the other or maybe this thread.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ramana »

One has to look at the rise of the West to get the complete picture. There is a story there. I now understand Balagangadhra's off chance remark about the struggle between Rome and C'pole.

Anglo-Saxon mollycoddling Arabist Islam is seen in India as a arrow against Ottomons. However it had a secondary goal against Tsarist Russia too. So it was one arrow two targets. Where it went wrong was in Clinton Bahadur (Quigley and Oxford trained) misguided attempt to use the Taliban for Central Asia.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ShauryaT »

shiv wrote:

Samuel - all you need to do for a confirmation of your hypothesis is to get hold of the book "In the shadow of the Great Game" by Narendra Singh Sarila. If you have not alerady read it - it makes an exellent read.
I second the suggestion.
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Post by svinayak »

ramana wrote:One has to look at the rise of the West to get the complete picture. There is a story there. I now understand Balagangadhra's off chance remark about the struggle between Rome and C'pole.

Anglo-Saxon mollycoddling Arabist Islam is seen in India as a arrow against Ottomons. However it had a secondary goal against Tsarist Russia too. So it was one arrow two targets. Where it went wrong was in Clinton Bahadur (Quigley and Oxford trained) misguided attempt to use the Taliban for Central Asia.

Fall of Constantinople 1453

Spanish expansion and Rise of Spanish Empire 1400-1700 - (1521–1643)

Russian expansion from European region to the Heartland/Pacific region 1500-1700
At the beginning of the 19th century, Russia was the largest country in the world,
extending from the Arctic Ocean to the north to the Black Sea on the south, from the
Baltic Sea on the west to the Pacific Ocean on the east.

By the end of the 19th century the size of the empire was about 22,400,000 square kilometres
(8,600,000 sq mi) or almost 1/6 of the Earth's landmass; its only rival in size at the
time was the British Empire.

To counter this expansion the British started their expansion from 1600 towards the southern
rim of the Asian continent.

They came to India by 1650 and were expanding in North America by 1750s.

After British defeated French they were ousted from Americas and British consolidated India Rule.

After every expansion of Tzarist Russia into central Asia the British expanded in the subcontinent -


At the heart of the Great Game lay the willingness of Britain and Russia to subdue,
subvert, or subjugate the small independent states that lay between Russia and British India.
The British became the major power in the Indian sub-continent after the Treaty of Paris (1763)
and began to show interest in Afghanistan as early as their 1809 treaty with Shuja Shah Durrani.


1795 Defeat of Tipu Sultan

1805- Defeat of Marattas

First Anglo–Afghan War lasted from 1839 to 1842

1848 - Anglo Sikh War

Second Anglo-Afghan War, 1878–1880

1919- Third Anglo-Afghan War and Independence


At the start of the 19th century there were some 2000 miles separating British India
and the outlying regions of Tsarist Russia. Much of the land in between was unmapped.
The cities of Bukhara, Khiva, Merv, Kokand and Tashkent were virtually unknown to westerners.

As Imperial Russian expansion threatened to collide with the increasing British dominance
of the occupied lands of the Indian sub-continent, the two great empires played out a subtle
game of exploration, espionage and imperialistic diplomacy throughout Central Asia.
The conflict always threatened, but never quite developed into direct warfare between
the two sides. The centre of activity was in Afghanistan.

After the first WWI Persia was freed from Tzarist Russian Influence.



With the end of the Second World War and the beginning of the Cold War, the United States
displaced Britain as the global power, asserting its influence in the Middle East in pursuit
of oil, containment of the Soviet Union, and access to other resources. This period is sometimes
referred to as "The New Great Game" by commentators [5], and there are references in the military,
security, and diplomatic communities to "The Great Game" as an analogy or framework for events
involving India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and, more recently, the post-Soviet republics of Central Asia.

Iran was forced into a Revolution in 1979 cutting off Iran from Soviet Russia.
Soviet invasion of Afghaistan in 1980 brought the Anglo Americans into the Subcontinent again and their support
for Islamic fundamentalism changed the world after 100 years.

This Anglo American support to Islamic radicals in the modern globalized world changed the old Great Game.
Clinton administration support to the TALIBAN in the 1990s was the biggest input to the Central Asia which will have the longest impact in the history of the world.



In 1997, Zbigniew Brzezinski published "The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic
Imperatives" which advocated a 21st century version of the Great Game. Popular media have referred to
the current conflict between international forces and Taliban forces in Afghanistan as a New Great Game.

However interesting the possibility of intrigues as they appear it is doubtful that the Great Game
unfolded in such dramatic fashion. In fact, the entire concept of the Great Game may have greater root
in the British imagination than in the rugged passes of the Hindu Kush. Indian historian J.A. Naik cites
several British historians who claim that the Tsarist government never took military operations against
India seriously.

In addition, the meaning of “The Great Game” that is popular now does not reflect the real concerns of
the British in relation to India in the 19th century. The primary concern of British
authorities in India was control of the indigenous population, not preventing a Russian invasion.

But however spurious the assumptions regarding the Anglo-Russian rivalry of the 19th and early 20th centuries,
they are no less compelling. According to Yapp, “reading the history of the British Empire in India and
the Middle East one is struck by both the prominence and the unreality of strategic debates.” And the
prominence of the debates serves to obscure the real challenge the British faced in India which was their
internal control, not the external threats from the far side of the Himalayas. Nonetheless, the power of
the expanding Russian autocracy was a reality in Asia.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_empires
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Samay »

anyone has latest updates on 'the great game',?
keeping in view the fresh stimulus and changing stategy of nato allies towards the terrorist state?
what's their short term plans for south asia these days?
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Paul »

Ramana: i have been thinking the same thing on parallel lines.

The Khliafat movement which started out as pro ottoman agitation is acually Pakistan movement version1. Related to the Mohajir - Kabila linkage.

I will get back with a detailed reply. ( I still owe a reply to you :( )

++++++++++++++++++++

Please see our Saar's presentation on youtube. (minute 5:00 onwards...has a fleeting reference to the Great game - British machinations.....we need to come up with a video to explain this thread to the lay audience). The role of Caroe and other british thinkers needs to explained in a crisp fashion to everyone....we cannot afford to lose this thread and have the next group reinvent the wheel.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONXcYnAj ... re=related
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Post by Atri »

India proposes gas highway from Turkmenistan
NEW DELHI: India has proposed to set up a Rs 8,000 crore fertiliser plant in Turkmenistan and has mooted an 'International Gas Highway' to take the fuel from the Central Asian nation to deficit countries like India. Petroleum Secretary R S Pandey, on a two-day visit to the gas-rich Central Asian country on April 23-24, proposed to set up a 1-2 million tonne fertiliser plant.
Dear Adminullahs,

can a new thread for compilation of news and discussion about Central Asia be started?
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Sanjay M »

The Revenge of Geography, by Robert Kaplan

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms. ... 62&print=1
ramana
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ramana »

pay dirt.....

X-posted...
http://www.newstatesman.com/asia/2009/0 ... j-pakistan


Legacy of the Raj

Mihir Bose

Published 23 April 2009

Born in Mumbai, Mihir Bose has won numerous awards for his wide-ranging journalism over four decades. Now the BBC’s sports editor, he reflects here on democracy in India – and asks if the British really wanted their former colony to survive

As last viceroy, Lord Mountbatten (in white dress uniform, centre right) handed over to Jawaharlal Nehru (far right). It was Nehru’s work that made secular democracy thrive in India

At one point during the recent general election campaign in India, the leader of the BJP opposition, L K Advani, accused the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, of being “weak”. Singh and his colleagues reacted with fury. This was an abusive term, they said, that insulted both the office of the prime minister and the country itself. Not to be outdone, Advani reacted by claiming he was “hurt” by the attacks on his record, and for good measure then failed to attend an all-party dinner in honour of the departing speaker of the Indian parliament.

Such exchanges suggest that levels of debate in the Indian political class are not particularly elevated. But to be fair to the participants, they have not been helped by the historical inheritance the new state received at its birth. It may be hard to credit now, as 700 million voters go to the polls in the world’s biggest elections, but back in the 1940s the wise men of the British Raj predicted that while Pakistan would prosper, India would soon be Balkanised. Pakistan, it was thought, would become a vibrant Muslim state, a bulwark against Soviet communism. India’s predominantly Hindu population, however, was presumed to be a source of weakness and instability.

Nobody expressed this view more forcefully than Lieutenant-General Sir Francis Tucker who, as General Officer Commanding of the British Indian Eastern Command, had been in charge of large parts of the country. His memoirs, While Memory Serves, published in 1950, the year India became a republic, reflected the view of many of the departing British.

Hindu India was entering its most difficult phase of its whole existence. Its religion, which is to a great extent superstition and formalism, is breaking down. If the precedents of history mean anything . . . then we may well expect, in the material world of today, that a material philosophy such as Communism will fill the void left by the Hindu religion.

Tucker was hardly alone among Raj officials. By then, it was almost an orthodoxy to believe that Hinduism was, if not an evil force, at least spent and worthless. Islam, on the other hand, was a religion the West could understand and with whose political leaders it could do business.

Rudyard Kipling, the great chronicler of the Raj, had long made clear his fondness for Muslims and his distrust of Hindus. He was appalled by the Ramayana and the Mahabharata, the two great Hindu classics, and repulsed by the jumble of the faith’s beliefs. In contrast, Kipling claimed that he had never met an Englishman who hated Islam and its people, for “where there are Muslims there is a comprehensive civilisation”.

The British had seized power in the subcontinent mainly from Muslim rulers, and the crushing of the 1857 revolt, after which the last Mughal emperor was removed, put paid to any chance of Muslim revival. By the beginning of the 20th century, however, the Muslims had become the allies of the Raj as it struggled to quell the agitation for freedom led by the Indian National Congress. [b]The Raj encouraged the formation of the Muslim League and determinedly portrayed the INC as a Hindu party, despite its constant promotion of its secular credentials and advertisement of its Muslim leaders. (True, the party was mostly made up of Hindus; but as India was overwhelmingly Hindu, this was hardly surprising. The Raj just could not believe that a party made up largely of Hindus could be truly secular.)[/b]

Such was the hatred for the Hindus, particularly Brahmins, that the Raj could not be shaken from this fixation – even when the Congress Party had political victories in diehard Muslim provinces, the most remarkable of which was in the North-West Frontier Province. Today, parts of the province (which voted to join Pakistan in 1947) are adopting sharia law, but in the 1930s a secular Muslim movement had grown up there, led by Ghaffar Khan and his brother Khan Sahib. They joined the Congress Party and won successive election victories from 1937 onwards, defeating established Muslim parties.

But the Raj pictured these secular Muslims as dupes of the wily Hindus. The only consolation for Sir Olaf Caroe, considered to be the supreme Raj expert on the local Pashtuns, was that they would soon come to their senses, “It is hard to see how the Pathan [Pashtun] tradition could reconcile itself for long to Hindu leadership, by so many regarded as smooth-faced, pharisaical and double-dealing . . . How then could he [the Pathan] have associated himself with a party under Indian, even Brahmin, inspiration . . .”

What would the West not give now for such secular Muslims to return to power in this playground of the Taliban and al-Qaeda – even if under the spell of “pharisaical Brahmins”?

Such caricatures of Hindus were not uncommon (featuring, for instance, in Evelyn Waugh’s Scoop), but it was when this view was espoused by major politicians such as Winston Churchill that it became truly dangerous. When Churchill argued vehemently against Indian independence in the 1930s, his fire was directed mainly at the Hindus (in contrast, he praised Muslims, whose valour and virility he admired). As the Second World War neared its close, the British prime minister was so consumed by hatred of the Hindus that he told his private secretary John Colville that he wanted extraordinary destruction visited upon them. Colville’s The Fringes of Power records the extreme nature of his master’s feelings in February 1945, just ­after his return from Yalta:

"The PM said the Hindus were a foul race “protected by their mere pullulation from the doom that is due” and he wished Bert [Bomber] Harris could send some of his surplus bombers to destroy them." :x

Clement Attlee, who came to power within months, did not share Churchill’s Hindu-phobia. There were also historic ties between Labour and Congress. Yet his government nevertheless agreed that a separate Pakistan was vital to Britain’s global interests. By early 1947, British policymakers realised they had to withdraw from the subcontinent, but still wanted a military presence there: to protect Britain’s position in the century-long Great Game with Russia, and to protect the sea routes to Arabian oil wells. Partition, the foreign secretary Ernest Bevin told the Labour party conference that year, “would help to consolidate Britain in the Middle East”.

British strategy was also shaped by Pakistan’s wish to remain in the Commonwealth, while India wanted out. By the end of the war, what little love there had been between the Raj and Congress had long evaporated, as most of the party’s leaders spent much of the war inside British jails. They had refused to co-operate with the war effort unless their masters promised freedom when peace came. Regarding this as blackmail during the empire’s “darkest hour”, the British made mass arrests and banned the party. In such circumstances, it was understandable that the pleas of both Churchill and Attlee that the king-emperor should remain as head of state were ignored.

British hopes for the country that emerged were not high. Just before he left India in 1943, the Viceroy of India, Lord Linlithgow, forecast that it would take Indians at least 50 years to learn how to practise parliamentary democracy. Even then, he felt it would require much tutoring from the British and other Europeans, whom he thought could be tempted to the subcontinent by the arrival of air-conditioning. (Once they didn’t have to worry about the heat, he reasoned, some six million Britons could be persuaded to settle in India to take on the task.)

That democracy took root so quickly and successfully owes much to Jawaharlal Nehru, the first and longest-serving prime minister of India, who was in office from 1947-64. So well did the system embed itself that when his daughter Indira imposed emergency rule in the 1970s – the closest India has come to a dictatorship – it was ended not by tanks rolling down the streets of Delhi, but through the ballot box. That election showed, as have many since then, that ordinary Indians, many of them poor and illiterate, value their vote (perhaps even more than the rich, who feel money can buy them influence). They queue for hours in the baking heat to cast their ballots.

Before the Second World War, the Raj’s relationship with India was like a father promising to allow his stepson to come into his inheritance at some unspecified date in the distant future. It never quite believed that there could ever be a time that this brown person would be capable of managing the estate.

This general election campaign may have exposed just how fractured the political classes are today, with numerous caste, religious and communal groups competing and doing deals with each other. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance may have completed its five-year term of office, but many of its allies, including cabinet ministers, are opposing Congress at local level. Some of them make no secret that they aspire to the prime ministership, and all of them are aware that, as the Times of India put it: “Opportunistic post-poll equations will be more important than the pre-poll pitch of the parties.”

Yet the patchwork quilt that is made up of British India and the hundreds of princely states united and survived, and still manages to do so despite all the challenges that could have led to that Balkanisation predicted by old Raj hands. The likes of Tucker, Churchill and Kipling were proved wrong: constructing the new nation of India was not, after all, beyond the Indians.

Mihir Bose will be reporting on India for “Newsnight” on 23 April (BBC2) and for BBC World and BBC News in early May
Tucker and Caroe were part of the Viceroy Study Group (VSG) and were the mentors of the new Great Game.

Looks like in one article validated many of BRF's thoughts in print. And folks were saying all this was conspiracy theory!
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Prem »

And now , six decade latter Brytish are left with Fryfish and Pakistanis onlee. No more empire or economy and welcome IMF. Ca-roe , Tukcer , Chorchill and Kipling RIP..iss. BTW have British government paid the beer bill of Chorchill to Bangalore Club? If not , HMG should do so before filling bankruptcy.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ShauryaT »

Paul wrote:The Khliafat movement which started out as pro ottoman agitation is acually Pakistan movement version1. Related to the Mohajir - Kabila linkage.
Paul: Where will one place the Bengal partition by Curzon, in the scheme of things?
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by svinayak »

As per most estimates, India had 25% of world GDP just before the Europeans arrived in India. According to economic historian Angus Maddison in his book 'The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective', India had the world's largest economy from the 1st century to 11th century, with a 32.9% share of world GDP in the 1st century to 28.9% in 1000 CE. As per Jawaharlal Nehru, in his book 'Glimpses of World History', the Czar of Russia, Peter the Great wrote in his will in the 18th century, that the country that will rule India, will be the sovereign of the world (click here to read his will.).


http://www.antipas.org/magazine/article ... great.html
he Will of Peter The Great


In which he prescribes to his successors the course which they ought to follow,
in order to acquire universal dominion.

Taken From: The Herald of the Kingdom and Age to Come, Vol. 1, page 224

9. Do all in your power in approach closely Constantinople and India. Remember that he who rules over these countries is the real sovereign of the world. Keep up continued wars with Turkey and with Persia [modern day Iran]. Establish dockyards in the Black Sea. Gradually obtain the command of this sea, as well as of the Baltic. This is necessary for the entire success of our projects. Hasten the fall of Persia. Open for yourselves a route towards the Persian Gulf. Re-establish, as much as possible, by means of Syria, the ancient commerce of the Levant, and thus advance towards India. Once there, you will not require English gold.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ramana »

Sanjay M wrote:The Revenge of Geography, by Robert Kaplan

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms. ... 62&print=1

While I acknowledge the pre-eminence of Mackinder in his path breaking study of the field of geo-politics and his followers in perpetuating his eminence, I cannot but wonder at his idea that Indian sub-continent is a peripheral area and a shatter zone. When we look at the genetic evidence of "Out of India" migration which has populated the known and unknown world, the spread of orality or speech from proto-Sanskrit(Third Ape by Jared Diamond), the fact that for most of the known history India was an economically well developed region, the spread of Indic thoughts in the Axis age of Buddha, the non-violent spread of Indic civilization for five centuries after Ashoka in East and South East Asia I wonder at his lack of knowledge. How much else of his theory is breaking the wind?
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Arun_S »

Prem wrote:And now , six decade latter Brytish are left with Fryfish and Pakistanis onlee. No more empire or economy and welcome IMF. Ca-roe , Tukcer , Chorchill and Kipling RIP..iss. BTW have British government paid the beer bill of Chorchill to Bangalore Club? If not , HMG should do so before filling bankruptcy.
Incidentally one of Kipling's progeny worked with me and he was in awe of this Yindu Indian (we were on a mission in Japan). He still had a residue of his great grandfather in thinking that Indian characters as brought out by him were true reflection of the real India. From what I know I think the fellow is now cooling his heels in poverty. Soon he will be RIP'ped.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ramana »

Google Books

Global Geostrategy:Mackinder and the Defence of the West

Also read this book:
Google Book linked by paul

Intelligence and Imperial Defence



it has good inof on the British fears of Russia that led to the great Game.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by SSridhar »

Achraya, please explain what does the above post signify or what relevance it has got to this thread ? To me, it appears enigmatic.
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