Indian Nuclear Submarines -3

[RoyG]

Massive retaliation is here to stay. This is just one of those stupid debates that everyone likes to kill time on.

Once a warhead goes off, no matter the yield, it is impossible to keep from skipping the escalation ladder altogether and unloading a substantial portion of the inventory (massive).

If a nuke goes off over an armored column/population center it will be done with the approval of the PA. It is simply not possible that non-state actors/rogue military men can take control of some of the inventory and have the technical know how to activate and launch. US and Israel would have destroyed the country by now if it were that easy.

India will ensure that Pakistan is finished off forever if they authorize code release. Our society is complex enough. No need to add to it. Keep it simple - "Live or perish. You decide."

[Aditya G]

Which agency is responsible to validate and confirm to prime minister ... Who is nestled in an underground bunker ... That a nuclear attack has indeed occurred?

[krishna_krishna]

^1 royg

[Gagan]

Massive retaliation is here to stay. This is just one of those stupid debates that everyone likes to kill time on.

Once a warhead goes off, no matter the yield, it is impossible to keep from skipping the escalation ladder altogether and unloading a substantial portion of the inventory (massive).

This, statement, saar as we have seen is dependent on the GoI in power in that situation.

The fact is:
1. At least two powers, the US and Russia, will know that there has been a surface nuclear blast, possibly before GoI knows it, if this is in a remote area.
2. You can bet that the POTUS will be calling PM @GoI, Russian President will be calling PM@GoI in the next 10 mins or so.
In addition there will be calls made to every minister, party netaji who has videshi contacts within the next half hour, with the expressed direction/request not to retaliate.

Or There could be a GoI in power (God forbid if it is some antinationals in power), who will already have given reassurances to their masters, that there will not be any N retaliation. These are the people who have delayed offensive military modernization as a CBM, splurged on expensive kickback laden goods, which are force multipliers and NON FRONTLINE military articles.

IMHO, only the P3 (USA, Russia and China) will ever use nuclear weapons. TSP may use them or terrorists may use them as proxies from TSP Army.
Indian nuclear retaliation, is like the N retaliation of the Non P3 nations - very iffy.

[shiv]

This, statement, saar as we have seen is dependent on the GoI in power in that situation.

The fact is:
1. At least two powers, the US and Russia, will know that there has been a surface nuclear blast, possibly before GoI knows it, if this is in a remote area.
2. You can bet that the POTUS will be calling PM @GoI, Russian President will be calling PM@GoI in the next 10 mins or so.
In addition there will be calls made to every minister, party netaji who has videshi contacts within the next half hour, with the expressed direction/request not to retaliate.

Or There could be a GoI in power (God forbid if it is some antinationals in power), who will already have given reassurances to their masters, that there will not be any N retaliation. These are the people who have delayed offensive military modernization as a CBM, splurged on expensive kickback laden goods, which are force multipliers and NON FRONTLINE military articles.

IMHO, only the P3 (USA, Russia and China) will ever use nuclear weapons. TSP may use them or terrorists may use them as proxies from TSP Army.
Indian nuclear retaliation, is like the N retaliation of the Non P3 nations - very iffy.

According to me, the first "news" released by "western sources close to the White House" to The Hindu and NDTV after they detect Pakistan's first nuke on us will be that it is not at all certain that an atomic explosion has occurred. Something quite minor may have happened or Indian forces carrying a nuclear warhead with them to the frontline (which moronic SDREs will be expected to do according to our patrio-nationalistic media) have had an accident due to poor training and that nuclear retaliation by India will be a mistake.

Our decision making apparatus not only has to be immune to such pressure but the government has to show some openness in discussing such possibilities - otherwise the media will blame India or stating nuclear war and welcome nuclear retaliation on Indian cities because of the rise of rightwingers. Already the views of people like you and me are being declared as EXACTLY like ISIS and Taliban while the peace and tolerance of Kanhaiya is highlighted

The openness that Adm Prakash and others call for is precisely to keep more Indians in the loop. Gone are the days when the average Indians was uninformed and could be left out. Now the media are right up there to destroy any independent action by India by pulling down the government of the day and smear the armed forces simultaneously.

I am afraid we on BRF too need to "move on" and not reassure ourselves that the promise of "massive retaliation" is sufficient in itself. We have to think of all these other added complications and talk about them out in the open.

[shiv]

Which agency is responsible to validate and confirm to prime minister ... Who is nestled in an underground bunker ... That a nuclear attack has indeed occurred?

Precisely! Everyone will blame "fog of war" and decision makers can get cold feet.

[shiv]

Reposting an old story maybe I need to update it?

"Massive blast in Jingorampur"

"A mysterious blast has devastated large areas of Jingorampur. The blast which occurred at 10 AM caused the ground to shake and people in surrounding villages reported seeing a bright flash. People ran out their houses suspecting that an Earthquake had occurred.

The district officials in the nearby city of Whacknagar said that although all communication had been cut off with Jingorampur - there was nothing to "be concerned about. This is a common occurrence due to power failures in summer. The official said everything was under control. He confirmed that an earthquake could have occurred as the town was near a seismic zone - but there were no reports of any deaths so far."

A few hours later..

"Jingorampur flattened"

Thousands of people have been killed in what appears to have been a massive earthquake in Jingorampur..relief efforts are on..The central government is seized of the matter and an ex gratia payment of Rs 10,000 for the families of the bereaved has been announced."

The next day

"Death and misery in Jingorampur Quake"

"Eyewitnesss reported a blast and many people have been severely burned. Even people on fields have been killed. "I was reminded of pictures of the tsunami" said one witness. Jingorampur is located 400 Km from the coast. and a tsunami has been ruled out."

Some people have blamed the Army which had an ammunition dump in the area. An army rescue team member denied this. Asked why the Army team were seen wearing protective suits and masks the response was because the disaster was caused by a nuclear bomb explosion"


A day later..

"Has Jingorampur been nuked?"

"Reports from the Army and defence ministry sate that the disaster was caused by a nuclear explosion. NGOs were quick to blame the Atomic Energy Commission in India which is known to have a poor safety record.

A demonstration in Delhi to protest against slow relief efforts was lathi charged by the police. One protester blamed Pakistan for the disaster. This was rejected by the minister of state for lame excuses. Anti national elements of the right wing are trying to harm the peace process."

One week later...

"It has been confirmed that Jingorampur has been devastated by a nuclear bomb. A high power governmental enquiry has been constituted, headed by retired chief justice Blahblah to try and establish the source of the bomb. In the meantime the government has asked the people to maintain communal harmony. It thanked the government of Pakistan for its offer of aid, and rejected reports in the US media that a rogue Pakistani nuclear bomb had been exploded. "The US has so many bombs - it could have been a US bomb" said a minister - not wishing to be named""

Four days later

"Sehwag dropped from Cricket tour of Australia due to injury"
"Price of kerosene not to be raised even as Oil prices rise to $120 a barrel"
"TV returns to Jingopura - the first signs of normality"..

[Yagnasri]

If Pakis use WMDs on India ( including Indian army formations etc.) then there shall be immediate and existence termination level response of Paki nation. Allowing Pakis to exist after using a nuke is not an option. It is will serve as a model for later wars and also islamic Jihad on the nonmuslim world.

[RoyG]

Shiv,

It's highly unlikely that we'll be crossing any red lines to begin with. Pakistan at the moment is well protected against disintegration given that their TNWs are pointed at their own citizenry outside of Punjab. Anyone dreaming of cold start being put into motion with thousands of tanks crossing the IB should take a cold shower. PA will be propped up for the foreseeable future.

As far as pre-preemptive action is concerned, if the Pakistanis had any doubt about lack of early warning mechanism in place on our side, they would have already done it. Flight profile for BM from their side to Delhi/Mumbai is ~15 min. Prep maybe another 10. So we're looking at ~30 min after authorization for weapons release goes out.

This isn't a lot of time for our side to act. There are obv some systems in place to detect detonation and launch. I'm all for transparency and gaming. However, we shouldn't retreat into the cave of melancholy. We will do what is required if the time ever comes. Pakis know this.

[shaun]

the above scenario posted by shiv saab is cent percent genuine . In thick of war , that scenario might play in a different way but the "massive retaliation" sounds like "mooh toor jawab" !!

[shiv]

I'm all for transparency and gaming. However, we shouldn't retreat into the cave of melancholy.

No. No question of melancholy.

But I have been a spoilsport of sorts on this thread. It started off when I read many (justifiably) satisfied posts that said that India's triad was complete with the Arihant. I deliberately put brakes on that by pointing out all the "anomalies" that I have been reading about over the years. Don't want to rehash - but any libtard who has been following nuclear deterrence news will see red at the thought of deterrence patrols started by a rightwing government.

These are all political games - any other government may also start such patrols - but these political games are picked up by the media to smear the country and finally you have all sorts of ramifications. You know Pakis proliferate. You know they threaten nuclear war - but because of our own media and political fights it is India that gets excluded from NSG, India that people refuse to supply Uranium ore and Shitistan gets F-16 from Khan and Plutonium producing reactors from China.

So the nuclear environment that we live in must be openly debated rather than the understated threat of certain retaliation - which is only see as rightwing jingoism. Not enough people seem to know the kind of nuclear threat that we face. The threat of "massive retaliation" that our doctrine promises is good but too many people fail to understand why that is good - and by "too many people" I mean even politicians and bureaucrats whose children get easy seats in US universities and tend to feel that it is India that is being harsh on a long suffering Pakistan.

This sort of nonsense can only continue unless we keep churning and redoing the debate.

[NRao]

[quote="Aditya G"]Which agency is responsible to validate and confirm to prime minister ... Who is nestled in an underground bunker ... That a nuclear attack has indeed occurred?[/quote]

Did not know the Indian PM lives in a bunker.

Was under the impression that once an attack is detected, only then he is taken to a safe place - bunker possibility is only if he were in Delhi and that too within a certain radius.

BR is getting to be a live script for a Bollywood movie.

People here really believe that Indian response mechanism is that rotten.

[Shreeman]

the above scenario posted by shiv saab is cent percent genuine . In thick of war , that scenario might play in a different way but the "massive retaliation" sounds like "mooh toor jawab" !!

I am sauri, but it does not sound like "mooh toor jawab". This starts with "Mh..." and ends with "....hb" where as the scenario has a left testiMonial riding on it.

Just to be clear, it sounds like "chhappan inch chhati". So there.

And no, there will be no nuking of beasephul lands, whether nukker or nikkar nude.

[PratikDas]

the above scenario posted by shiv saab is cent percent genuine . In thick of war , that scenario might play in a different way but the "massive retaliation" sounds like "mooh toor jawab" !!

I am sauri, but it does not sound like "mooh toor jawab". This starts with "Mh..." and ends with "....hb" where as the scenario has a left testiMonial riding on it.

Just to be clear, it sounds like "chhappan inch chhati". So there.

And no, there will be no nuking of beasephul lands, whether nukker or nikkar nude.

Yeah, ok.

[partha]

One week later...

"It has been confirmed that Jingorampur has been devastated by a nuclear bomb. A high power governmental enquiry has been constituted, headed by retired chief justice Blahblah to try and establish the source of the bomb. In the meantime the government has asked the people to maintain communal harmony. It thanked the government of Pakistan for its offer of aid, and rejected reports in the US media that a rogue Pakistani nuclear bomb had been exploded. "The US has so many bombs - it could have been a US bomb" said a minister - not wishing to be named""

OR if there is a pappu like PM at the time of attack, it could even play out like this -

"Prime Minister Gandhi has condemned Pakistani nuclear attack on Jingorampur from an undisclosed location but has ruled out any nuclear retaliation and has warned Pakistan against any further aggression. The Indian PM in a press release has said it is immoral and unethical to kill millions of innocent people across the border and that it is against the idea of India as envisioned by the founding fathers. He praised the spirit of the people of India and called for nuclear disarmament across the world. Various world leaders including US President Hillary Clinton have hailed the Indian PM as statesman and savior of humanity. President Clinton further praised Indian PM for showing extraordinary restraint in the face of extreme provocation and announced imposition of sanctions on Pakistan. Meanwhile peace activists on both sides of the border met at Wagah and called for an early resolution of Kashmir dispute."

Pappu like PM could become hero from zero overnight and even win Nobel peace prize.

[Shreeman]

They did not just "meet at wagah". You neVer just meet there. You will bankrupt the candle industry. The bees will starve.

They held a candle light vigil -- with k i s s e s, of course.

[Aditya G]

In this post "underground bunker" is a metaphor for this safe place that you speak of. The PM and his cabinet may not have a balcony view to a mushroom cloud rising on the horizon. He will need direct reports to confirm and inform him that such first strike has indeed taken place, which will then have to be responded by us accordingly.

I do not believe our response mechanism is rotten. I am just questioning what the mechanism is. This debate comes at this point due to the impending induction of INS Arihant - which can potentially be armed with nuclear warheads mated to missiles. This will be new for India as we have never deployed nuke tipped missiles in the field.

I don't expect the country to spill out all secrets to the public - but it is pertinent to see some form of signalling from GoI to citizens that they have adequate mechanims in place. It has to be done periodically.

Being opaque about it is not a problem per se. Israel is also opaque about its nukes. But it is widely believed that they have a second strike capability (on Doplhin u-boats) and they will not hesitate to use it. Their willingness to respond to conventional attacks with conventional attacks reinforces the belief that they will hit back with nukes as well when time comes. By that yardstick GoI does not give the same confidence.

Which agency is responsible to validate and confirm to prime minister ... Who is nestled in an underground bunker ... That a nuclear attack has indeed occurred?

Did not know the Indian PM lives in a bunker.

Was under the impression that once an attack is detected, only then he is taken to a safe place - bunker possibility is only if he were in Delhi and that too within a certain radius.

BR is getting to be a live script for a Bollywood movie.

People here really believe that Indian response mechanism is that rotten.

[member_22539]

^Don't worry. The only reason why politicians in India hesitate to attack our enemies are because they are worried about the next election. If a nuke attack happens on India, they better retaliate, or they can run away from India before a lynch mob finds them. That is all there is to it.

[nirav]

We must have a wallowing thread for deterrence issues.can collectively dhoti shiver there and front khan propagandu of having public "debate & discussion" on such a vital national security issue.

[Chinmayanand]

I don't know how many calls the US made to IG to not attack their attack dogs in 1971 . Well , India went ahead and did what it deemed fit.
India which did not take kindly to refugee influx , how will it take a nuke influx in kind.
I guess , too much dhoti shiver and flutter is not good.
US is not the master of the universe that many think it to be. For all its military and economic power, it keeps getting shafted by the two bit pakis who take its money, weapons along with its soldiers' lives.
Nobody can stop India from responding to a nuke attack if India chooses to respond.
The only problem i see is not in external pressure but our politicians choice. Even the 56inch guy can revert and go worse than the dove card guy.

[vishvak]

Wasn't there chatter abt US navy warships on port call to A&N - that too in India-Japan cooperation and china threat thread? Who is 'internationalizing' that? 56inch chaiwala or dove card or who else. In fact, have any Russian ships seen at A&N on port call - this when some India company is building refinery on the east coast to store the imported oil from Russia in future.

OT only.

[shaun]

Well sreemanji , I love sarcasm and maybe the same is true with the custodian of our "bums" !!

[Gagan]

N retaliation in a BIG HUGE thing.
Come to think of it, using it for the first time by the Pakistanis is also a BIG HUGE THING.
Those generals or even their Jihadis have enough intelligence (& don't have the balls) to use them. [These are the jokers who had two odd weeks of nonstop brown pants between the 11th May and 28th May after India had tested. People should remember the total chaos in their political, military and media circles in haramkhor-istan after May 11th]

In india, ministers in a government are suspected to have changed paperwork, so that a terrorist becomes a victim, law enforcers are hounded and jailed, while the netas enriched themselves.

Now after 26/11 there were actual steps put in place to better tackle a terror strike. We see the commandos practising drills in different parts of the country.
1. I just don't see any such display in SFC. Media has to be thrown some bone so that they can tom tom india's case
2. At the political level, regular announcements (Bi-annual for eg) should be made about nuclear preparedness. One such occasion I see is the Arihant commissioning, which I hope the PM will attend. We do need to hear about N policy then.
3. Maybe India also needs to find some sucker 2 bit country to whack around every six months like the superpowers to show everyone how mean and badass we are. It'll help to hone and battle test mil planning.

[Shreeman]

Well sreemanji , I love sarcasm and maybe the same is true with the custodian of our "bums" !!

I see this nukular option as a sort of cat fight. A lot of posturing, hissing, raising heckles, and most of the time no more than a raised claw or two. The exceptions are food, disease, and sex (which you can call a disease if you like). Those reasons will get a cat to have its paws or ears bitten if it takes too much of a risk. Most cat injuries happen with *other* wild life or with automobiles.

So, given that goats are plentiful we are left with food and disease. Food is not too bad, how hard is it to grow grass (which one must eat if desiring to be a bum). Thats disease left. Disease is a curious one. It weakens the animal, but also makes it eager to snap at whatever is within reach. If left alone, 99% of the time rabies transmission is avoided. The other 1% is reserved for genetically rabid, which the converted sdre types dont qualify for.

Thus, personally keeping a safe distance is 99% effective in this case at avoiding ever getting into this tangle at all. If we can avoid the whole, here pussy pussy let me pet you attitude. Unfortunately, this runs counter to the ecternal distractions are better than internal development polity. None the less, the solution is keeping safe distance. And posturing. Which the toys demonstrated do quite well.

This is why you can afford to write satire about the *western* front. Now on the east is a wild life or automobile type of situation. One life was lost in 62, the other 8 are being counted. There is nothing to be satirical there. Its sad plain sad.

I posit there is no need for the whole institutionalization of a launch control chain other than internal ego massaging. The baki weapons are guarding their sovirginity threats from the west, some of their best friends there. Leave em alone, and get on with the job at hand. But no,...

[shaun]

but alas , for the diseased , pole vaulting is a national time pass ,as they happen to love our grass and have our goats too !!!

wish , a detail doc on Arihant comes out during its formal induction.

[ShauryaT]

Posting a US view point on why they choose NOT to build their next SSBN replacement based on their SSN design.

Facts We Can Agree Upon About Design of Ohio Replacement SSBN

Virginia-based SSBN design with a Trident II D5 missile. An SSBN design based on a Virginia-class attack submarine with a large-diameter missile compartment was rejected due to a wide range of shortfalls. It would:

Not meet survivability (stealth) requirements due to poor hull streamlining and lack of a drive train able to quietly propel a much larger ship
Not meet at-sea availability requirements due to longer refit times (since equipment is packed more tightly within the hull, it requires more time to replace, repair and retest)
Not meet availability requirements due to a longer mid-life overhaul (refueling needed)
Require a larger number of submarines to meet the same operational requirement
Reduce the deterrent value needed to protect the country (fewer missiles, warheads at-sea)
Be more expensive than other alternatives due to extensive redesign of Virginia systems to work with the large missile compartment (for example, a taller sail, larger control surfaces and more robust support systems)
We would be spending more money (on more ships) to deliver less deterrence (reduced at-sea warhead presence) with less survivability (platforms that are less stealthy).

Virginia-based SSBN design with a smaller missile. Some have encouraged the development of a new, smaller missile to go with a Virginia-based SSBN. This would carry forward many of the shortfalls of a Virginia-based SSBN we just discussed, and add to it a long list of new issues. Developing a new nuclear missile from scratch with an industrial base that last produced a new design more than 20 years ago would be challenging, costly and require extensive testing. We deliberately decided to extend the life of the current missile to decouple and de-risk the complex (and costly) missile development program from the new replacement submarine program. Additionally, a smaller missile means a shorter employment range requiring longer SSBN patrol transits. This would compromise survivability, require more submarines at sea and ultimately weaken our deterrence effectiveness. With significant cost, technical and schedule risks, there is little about this option that is attractive.

[sum]

^^ Was this posted earlier?

India’s Nuclear Submarine Programme

The first major challenge was to reorient the s/m design team from a conventional single hull design framework to a double hull nuclear powered s/m concept. Besides, having to put aside all the design normative and processes learnt at the Professor Gabler’s s/m Design Institute in Lubeck, it required a complete mindset change. Next, came the enormous challenge of innovating, the unique fuel package required for a compact s/m reactor. The Indian establishment had vast experience in developing the ..

Due to severe constraints on the accessibility to authentic information, there are many misconceptions afloat on Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV), the Indian nuclear submarine (s/m) programme. Most defence analysts and writers have had to rely on interpolation/extrapolation of informal personal interviews of retired officials. Hopefully, with the commissioning of INS Arihant in Mar
Recent writings of Yogesh Yadav and Balaz Szalontoi have unearthed some authentic documents from Russian and Hungarian national archives which have provided fresh insight into the subject. After INS Arihant was launched and the reactor became critical – Dr Anil Anand also released some historical facts linked to the compact nuclear reactor project in which he had a lead role to play

An attempt is being made here to put together – as realistic a picture as possible and try to correct som ..

Read it all

The Lease Agreement for the boat, initially designated S1 and subsequently christened ‘Chakra’, was concluded in December 1986. Finally, it was transferred to the IN in September 1987 and returned after expiry of the lease in December 1990.The initial objective of the exercise was to provide:

i. SSGN operation and maintenance experience to the IN before induction

The replacement SSGN of Akula class, christened Chakra II, was leased out from 2012 onwards.
Another SSGN is expected to be delivered this year.
Possibly – the acquisition of the third s/m is also being seriously contemplated.

By Rear Adm AP Revi

[Singha]

data point from bosporus ship spotters - so Arihant induction should be any day now.
28-March-2016
The Black Sea Fleet’s salvage vessel Epron has completed her taks of supervising the acceptance test of India’s first SSBN Arihant and returned home.

[JTull]

IN needs more investment in these support vessels.

[Austin]

data point from bosporus ship spotters - so Arihant induction should be any day now.
28-March-2016
The Black Sea Fleet’s salvage vessel Epron has completed her taks of supervising the acceptance test of India’s first SSBN Arihant and returned home.

Atleast we can infer the critical Deep Sea Trials of Arihant has been successfully completed , there could be other trials as well of a smaller nature.

[shiv]

Maybe bosphorus. Maybe phosphorus. But those are SDREs in orange life jackets

[JTull]

Maybe bosphorus. Maybe phosphorus. But those are SDREs in orange life jackets

You seem very sure.

The architecture at the back does not seem like any coastal location in India.

[Singha]

Shiv pls spend more time on info gathering than smart comments ...

Thats from turkishnavy.net a band of ppl who track Bosporus naval movements both ways. They catalogue the Syrian express for example

[Singha]

IN needs more investment in these support vessels.

+108

A motley band of ugly but useful supply ships keep the Russians and Syrians resupplied from black sea. See the site I mentioned.

[shiv]

Shiv pls spend more time on info gathering than smart comments ...

Thats from turkishnavy.net a band of ppl who track Bosporus naval movements both ways. They catalogue the Syrian express for example

Not disputing that. The ship has Russian markings and the port does not look Indian. But I just enlarged the image because I did not see white faces. Try that. I am not saying I am right but that is what it looks like to me. Why? Could there have been an Indian component among the crew? After all it was our sub they were accompanying.

[shiv]

I can see maybe 1 white face - or a white cap


For contrast see the person in the brown uniform at the back of the Turkish(?) pilot boat



..suggest looking at photo details carefully also before commenting

[Austin]

from Saurav Jha

India’s Undersea Deterrent

What role will India’s expanding submarine fleet play?

[Shreeman]

shiv,

the location is bosphorus, eg https://turkishnavy.files.wordpress.com ... 1248&h=936

it is not unheard of for russian salors to use tourist masks in this fashion, poor image quality, yada yada, not necessarily sdre.

[shiv]

Shreemanji I do not dispute the location and I would be totally convinced if you could show me one single image of Russian sailors on their own ships wearing tourist masks whatever that might mean

[Shreeman]

Difficult to say what is under the orange vests. But the little green men were marines from sevastopol, werent they? Marines (including the infamous sam holder during bosphorus passage) wouldnt look much different from a distance. If I recall right those images also had marines on deck in little green men uniform.