Bade wrote:So it seems price inflation is not limited to select cities and is quite widespread across the country. What does it really indicate then ? Rupee is overvalued at present and people have taken into consideration the future value of a deflated rupee ? Invest in real estate to hedge against this ? Or is it pure black money finding a place to park itself within the country ?
Bade saar, that is mucho complicated explanation for a simple phenomenon - too much money (and please read it as BLACK MONEY) chasing too few assets in Indian RE Sector. For those who are in USA, please compare the number of large cities (not by population alone) with strong economic base in India and USA. And that sir, should tell you why prices are at idiotic levels.
Take for example Gurgaon - in the entire North India, is there any other economic center with sustained demand from end-users for commercial, retail, hospitality and residential segments? NONE. Delhi has its own restricted usage regulations and NOIDA is still playing catch-up with Gurgaon. The RE Development Cycle follows a simple pattern - Commercial->Residential->Retail.
Why do you think Navi Mumbai was languishing in boondocks for such a long time? There was no commercial activity. And how many know that Government of Maharashtra had decided to shift the Mantralaya and other infra to Navi Mumbai when it was first conceived. Nariman Point realtors never allowed this to happen for they correctly surmised that w/o government machinery as demand driver, Nariman Point will not be the same again.But we digress.
This concentration of economic activity in few pockets like Gurgaon, Chennai, Hyderabad (worst of all cases in terms of speculation), Bangalore etc means that investment in RE (read black money) ends up chasing few assets in these areas. And you've the steep price rise. Even today in Noida, 80% buyer is an investor - and this investor base stretches from Rajasthan in west, Kashmir in North to TN in South.
And please to remember - BLACK MONEY does not come (always) with time value concept as fancy excel sheet gurus see it; the choice is between hiding the money below the mattress or investing in RE asset and getting something tangible for your ill gotten wealth. Do you know that people buy commercial (when I say commercial, I mean office space) assets in NCR for 6%-7% yield? Now what kind of capital value appreciation is one like to get to justify such yields?
There is one another unique feature of the Indian RE market - and especially the residential segment: The price increase does not always reflect the high volume of transactions (aka strong demand). Prices tend to increase more often than not because someone somewhere ( a location inferior to yours) achieved higher price and people automatically build premium for their properties.
Having said that - I'm a bit worried about the Gurgaon market. I think we're stuck with a situation where market will generally stagnate for foreseeable future.