Re: Book Review Folder - 2008/2009/2010/2011
Posted: 29 Jul 2011 11:50
POLITICAL SCIENCE
History Strikes Back
The Origins of Political Order From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution by Francis Fukuyama Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York, 2011. 601 pp. $35. ISBN 9780374227340.
Science 29 July 2011: Vol. 333 no. 6042 pp. 525-526
History Strikes Back
The Origins of Political Order From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution by Francis Fukuyama Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York, 2011. 601 pp. $35. ISBN 9780374227340.
Science 29 July 2011: Vol. 333 no. 6042 pp. 525-526
Francis Fukuyama came to prominence for his 1989 essay “The end of history?” (1) and subsequent book (2). In them, he argued that all the world's political systems were converging to liberal democracy and that this was to be a sort of historical absorbing state. After making such an ahistorical argument, Fukuyama (a political scientist at Stanford University) has now produced the first half of a two-volume work on the historical evolution of political institutions. The Origins of Political Order focuses squarely on how three big things—the state, the rule of law, and representative democracy—emerged historically and why they did so in some places and not others.
Very well written, the book is packed with clever ideas and fascinating information. It reflects a huge amount of reading and reflection across the social sciences. As ambitious as Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel (3) in its scope, it starts even earlier, tracing the emergence of human societies from their primate ancestors. Fukuyama argues, however, that the type of parsimonious theory proposed by Diamond is simply not possible. In its place he offers a “middle-range theory” based on analogies with the theory of evolution. Human societies developed from roots in primate social behaviors. Over time, some grew from bands, through tribes, to larger entities. Some eventually formed states with representative institutions. Innovations fueled the development of human societies, and those societies that survived were well adapted to their circumstances.
The circumstances that Fukuyama believes are relevant are quite complicated, and they combined in various ways in different contexts and time periods. Although he mentions the importance of geography, often his discussions of one factor that might make a particular set of human institutions adaptive (or tend to create innovation) is immediately followed by consideration of other factors. These factors include ideas, satisficing nonrational behavior, religion, and leadership. Fukuyama places heavy emphasis on warfare and competition among societies. For instance, he argues that bands transformed into tribes because tribes are much better at waging war.
An early quartet of chapters focuses on China as the first part of the world to develop a centralized modern state. Whereas Fukuyama sees “unrelenting warfare” as the key driving force behind this, he also notes that almost all recorded societies fought each other intensively. (I think he is wrong about the evidence on the San people of southern Africa.) Thus warfare is certainly not sufficient for the development of a state and probably not even necessary. Rather, he points out, it was war in conjunction with other factors that led to a state in China. In contrast, despite constant conflict between the Nuer and Dinka in the south of Sudan, neither society developed any sort of political centralization because they lacked these other factors.
Exactly what these other factors are and how they interact with warfare are things that Fukuyama finds too complex to describe in any general way, even though he tries in many contexts. But if we can't precisely describe these factors or their interactions with warfare, then it seems difficult to conclude that warfare played such a crucial role in developing the state. After all, following the Glorious Revolution of 1688, Britain was not forced to build a state by the threat of invasion; it could easily have sat out interstate warfare as it had done for most of the previous 150 years. In fact, Britain's development of the state and fiscal system was created by desires to be a big player in international politics and to create a mercantile empire. The simple correlation between state-building and warfare doesn't establish a causal relation, and other factors might have created a Chinese state, which then waged war. Indeed, Fukuyama discusses various other things (such as the lack of a European-like landed aristocracy) that might help explain the path along which China developed.
At a general level, the analogy to evolution is appealing. However, throughout the detailed historical examples that fill the book, it is hard to understand exactly how the pieces relate to the broader theory. Although you may not accept Diamond's argument in Guns, Germs, and Steel, at least it is easy to see what answer that offers to a question such as why Britain developed an effective centralized state in the early modern period. To apply Fukuyama's ideas, you have to immerse yourself in a complex historical story that interweaves the nature of Anglo-Saxon local government; the relative strengths of the monarchy, aristocracy, and gentry; the role of religion in changing underlying social relations; 17th-century political conflicts over domestic absolutism; military competition with France; etc. And it is difficult to determine whether or not the various institutions involved in the centralized state's development were adaptive. Were the pre–Magna Carta political institutions of Britain ever well adapted to their circumstances? Did forcing King John to sign the Magna Carta make them more adaptive? While emphasizing adaption, Fukuyama also includes discussions of maladaption and considerations of arguments about how institutions tend to persist over time even though the circumstances that made them appropriate change. There can be no presumption that any particular change of institutions is better or worse. Ultimately, the answer to that question involves a very complex series of historical contingencies.
Fukuyama seems quite correct to grasp for this type of contingent theory, but I think he is wrong to believe that it cannot be formulated much more systematically, even mathematically. Although human society is immensely complex (as he observes), so are many physical systems. In the natural and social sciences alike, it is all a matter of getting the right abstraction. Incredibly ambitious and fun as The Origins of Political Order is, in a sense Fukuyama has not been ambitious enough. He finished too far toward the trees in the forest-trees trade-off. While there is a lot to enjoy among the trees, I hope for more forest in the next volume—which I eagerly await.
References
1. ↵ F. Fukuyama, Natl. Interest 16, 3 (1989).
2. ↵ F. Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (Free Press, New York, 1992).
3. ↵ J. M. Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies (Norton, New York, 1997)