Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 14 May 2014 06:51

vivek.rao wrote:Amrikhaans are pooping all over.

one question - If Modi puts a condition that to normalize ties and allow US to be considered for any contracts, US has to stop all funding NGO/missionary work, what would be their reaction? Unofficially ofcourse!

http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/05/12 ... tions/han1

NM is not going to do that. Expect an overtly soft pedalling on core "Hindutva" issues, even antagonistic behaviour. Its the "Hindutvavadis" who are most likely to be surprised over the next few years.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 14 May 2014 07:00

Why do we have to BEG them to stop missionary work?? We just kick out all missionaries from entering India. Onus is on us, we do not beg them not to send their filthy Yasu p|mps.

brihaspati, if he does a ABV, then he can say buh bye to re-election and Pappu will become next PM.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 14 May 2014 07:15

I do not expect him to be a hindutvavadi. He is going to be neutral with out appeasing Mullahs and missionaries. that is good enough for us. Expect foreign missionaries ban law to come back again, but no support for Pravin Togadia types either. But expect RSS to grow in leaps and bounds in the next few years. RSS will become mainstream and just like Modi bulldozed the propaganda, RSS would do the same. Even if he wants Modi cannot stop the RSS.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 14 May 2014 07:17

NaMo will lose onlee.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 May 2014 07:20

Anantha wrote:I do not expect him to be a hindutvavadi. He is going to be neutral with out appeasing Mullahs and missionaries. that is good enough for us. Expect foreign missionaries ban law to come back again, but no support for Pravin Togadia types either. But expect RSS to grow in leaps and bounds in the next few years. RSS will become mainstream and just like Modi bulldozed the propaganda, RSS would do the same. Even if he wants Modi cannot stop the RSS.

---

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 14 May 2014 07:23

KJoishy ji,
no he will still carry the popn if he is not halaaled. Already a huge segment of the industry switched boats - the same way they tagged onto MKG/JLN. RSS/BJP should put up a "Hindu Left voice" within the team/around NM. So that the negative fallouts can be blamed on extra-right and the "left" voice can be pushed as the alternative from same source.

Problem is that when big-capital lands up, its not about yours/my concerns about missionaries - if the missionaries pull the proper levers offshore, to make the big-biz laddies shake their chaddies.

For NM the real challenge will be to deliver on the economic front, and there will be enough talking heads around him to make him play safe with going hard and fast against missionaries, "agrata bhai".

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 14 May 2014 07:26

Anantha wrote:I do not expect him to be a hindutvavadi. He is going to be neutral with out appeasing Mullahs and missionaries. that is good enough for us. Expect foreign missionaries ban law to come back again, but no support for Pravin Togadia types either. But expect RSS to grow in leaps and bounds in the next few years. RSS will become mainstream and just like Modi bulldozed the propaganda, RSS would do the same. Even if he wants Modi cannot stop the RSS.

Togadia is too extreme. His views are unworkable. NM should go neutral but not appease anyone. If he does that, he would have succeeded.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2014 07:27

A lot of ej can be caught on visa fraud alone. A lot come as tourists or to learn Yoga, dance, music or teach English per visa applications.

Sanju · Post by **Sanju** » 14 May 2014 07:31

vivek.rao wrote:Amrikhaans are pooping all over.

one question - If Modi puts a condition that to normalize ties and allow US to be considered for any contracts, US has to stop all funding NGO/missionary work, what would be their reaction? Unofficially ofcourse!

http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/05/12 ... tions/han1

Obviously, engagement will not come easily because of the uncomfortable fact that Washington and Modi managed to start out on the wrong foot. <snip>

That is sharing the blame, when the blame squarely lies with Washington and not Modi....It was Washington that played to its galleries without verification and awaiting the decision by the Supreme Court of India! So please have the grace to admit your blunder.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 May 2014 07:50

Gentlemen,

Lets get back to exit poll discussion

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 14 May 2014 07:52

^^^Any new update from 5forty3? I haven't seen anything for phase 9 yet.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 14 May 2014 07:55

Singha wrote:A lot of ej can be caught on visa fraud alone. A lot come as tourists or to learn Yoga, dance, music or teach English per visa applications.

Ya but the major problem is INDIAN ejs. These are mainly South Indian types with a sprinkling of Bengalis per my experience. As rabid and slimy as the worst Bible Thumpers from Atlanta. These guys are making inroads into Majuli Island with help of govt. Its like building a Hare Rama temple in the Vatican--will that ever be allowed?

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 14 May 2014 07:56

brihaspati wrote:KJoishy ji,
no he will still carry the popn if he is not halaaled. Already a huge segment of the industry switched boats - the same way they tagged onto MKG/JLN. RSS/BJP should put up a "Hindu Left voice" within the team/around NM. So that the negative fallouts can be blamed on extra-right and the "left" voice can be pushed as the alternative from same source.

Problem is that when big-capital lands up, its not about yours/my concerns about missionaries - if the missionaries pull the proper levers offshore, to make the big-biz laddies shake their chaddies.

For NM the real challenge will be to deliver on the economic front, and there will be enough talking heads around him to make him play safe with going hard and fast against missionaries, "agrata bhai".

Interesting perspective. Are we seeing a conversion to Nehruism

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 May 2014 08:08

Victor wrote:
Singha wrote:A lot of ej can be caught on visa fraud alone. A lot come as tourists or to learn Yoga, dance, music or teach English per visa applications.
Ya but the major problem is INDIAN ejs. These are mainly South Indian types with a sprinkling of Bengalis per my experience. As rabid and slimy as the worst Bible Thumpers from Atlanta. These guys are making inroads into Majuli Island with help of govt. Its like building a Hare Rama temple in the Vatican--will that ever be allowed?

exit polls please

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 May 2014 08:09

Mort Walker wrote:^^^Any new update from 5forty3? I haven't seen anything for phase 9 yet.

Yup, very surprising, he seems quiet. Maybe he is still crunching all his numbers.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 14 May 2014 08:21

On Friday, we'll have to collate all of the polls and show which was closest for each party and determine if it was dumb luck or any real statistical analysis.

In my wildest dreams I hope Congress is reduced to less than 55 so they can't even be the opposition party in parliament. This election isn't just about winning for the BJP, but about Congress mukt Bharat.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 14 May 2014 08:28

Diggy tweets today
It took Germany a few decades to come back on track. We shall fight communal fascists till our last breath

1. Diggy has thrown the towel
2. He believes it will take decades for his ilk to comeback
3. They will fight till their last breath.... keep whining..Tathastu

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2014 08:34

he could go on to his next paramour, I dont think he wants to commit to the current one now that potential love-child is in picture...

habal · Post by **habal** » 14 May 2014 08:34

Congress has a chance if it throws out the dynasty.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2014 08:40

without the dynasty , some individual state level leaders might have a chance to forge their regional entities. KA, telengana, KL must have viable leaders...
the central durbaris like digvijay, ramesh, sibal, patel, dwivedi,kursheed will have no base and nowhere to go.
pawarful is already an example of a strong state level leader who built a viable party after breaking away and koi kuch ukhar nahi paya usko...not even the wrath of 10Jpath...maybe he has extensive files to hold them in check.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 14 May 2014 08:44

It'll be interesting if Putin send the first official invitation to NaMo. Capitalist Russia can invest heavily in Bharat and vice versa to avoid massa's unpredictable/unriable behavior.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 May 2014 08:48

What are CSDS numbers for NDA?
Prasannavishay says they are reliable.

habal · Post by **habal** » 14 May 2014 08:49

there is a strong age bias in pro-Modi and anti-Modi, the main anti-Modi votebank are those above 50, mainly among muslims and even among hindus the older lot is more liable to argue and reason against Modi. The youth is pro-Modi and even Muslim youth may have voted for Modi this time except in Western UP.

Sonia image has been rubbed into dirt in this election. She is like the jealous Italian/European who came to power in sneaky way to put brakes on Indian economy and Indian people getting prosperous. She has lost her entire votebank and charisma in North India due to this perception gaining ground. Also because of zero policy on Pakistan sponsored terror and beheading of soldiers which did not evoke any emotions in her or manly. They are now firmly branded anti-national .. and rightly so.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 14 May 2014 08:55

Kati wrote:It'll be interesting if Putin send the first official invitation to NaMo. Capitalist Russia can invest heavily in Bharat and vice versa to avoid massa's unpredictable/unriable behavior.

Gut feeling is he will visit China or japan 1st. these two nations gave him respect when even Indians did not

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 May 2014 08:56

Habal tweet the premise of how Soniaji lost.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 14 May 2014 08:58

ramana wrote:What are CSDS numbers for NDA?
Prasannavishay says they are reliable.

276 for NDA, 236 BJP, 77 congis

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 14 May 2014 08:58

Anantha wrote:Diggy tweets today
It took Germany a few decades to come back on track. We shall fight communal fascists till our last breath

1. Diggy has thrown the towel
2. He believes it will take decades for his ilk to comeback
3. They will fight till their last breath.... keep whining..Tathastu

If he gets married, he will be wasting his breath in becoming Mortullah Ver 2.0

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 14 May 2014 09:03

https://www.google.com/search?q=2014+ex ... B728%3B387

Ramana, these are the numbers, except for the Timesnow which has been revised to 292 from 257.
No opinion poll gives NDA less than 272

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2014 09:08

Times now is indeed showing 292 for NDA...quite a chance from 249 just a day ago!
http://www.timesnow.tv/videoshow/4454647.cms

I think he has abandoned the ORG , gone for PollofPolls and taken the avg of the others including Chanakya...which being 330 drags the avg up. if we exclude Chanakya the avg of the others are around 275.

I am hoping its a safe and solid number like 290-300.

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 14 May 2014 09:08

IIRC someone said here 5forty3 had a sample size of 80,000! Even CSDS managed 21,000 only and that too with 620 field agents. Also Hansa Research, C-Voter (roots in YRD Media) and RNB (Chanakya) leveraged their primary skill in qualitative market analysis (mostly Omnibus Surveys and Viewership/Consumer Targeted Surveys) and their larger capital to have sample sizes of around 50,000-100,000. Then again IIRC Hansa research has 150+ full time agents only as per some sources - so some may be sub-contracted or @ daily wages.

Remember that brouhaha about a CIA sponsored survey in Muslim areas of Kerala. The contract was apparently subcontracted to India was subcontracted to a labor supply type company which used largely untrained daily wages basic qualifications types for the survey. CSDS, and YRD to an extent, have been around for a long time AND massively involved on sociology/readership AND elections. Grandaddy AC Nielsen has used ORG-MARG which has been on this since '96 AFAIK. The others are n00bs comparatively with regard to elections - I mean, how refined are their models for India?

And even CSDS has apparently taken Blind Draw method for 310 constituencies right out of the gate (and hopefully use the better randomization methods to make the subsequent selections). Some firms primarily use social media and online advertising companies and that makes respondents primarily from certain "narrow" demographics.

Now the above is regarding Opinion Poll. When it comes to Exit Poll a lot depends on things like time of taking response, block voting tendencies, booth, climate, etc etc. And this is when pollsters wait outside booths. So there's possibility of the error here as well. Some visit the voters within a few days or even hours after voting and the way these targets are chosen are same as that of the opinion poll process (PPS/SRS/Blind Draw etc).

So, I would wait till actual results are out. There may be compounding errors.
But then again, these are all staffed by ESOMAR/WAPOR ninjas who do this thing for a living and probably are...... more accurate this time. For all the high falutin' models and math, a critical weak link is the boots on the ground and the "NCOs" commanding them. And then there was that sting on some research agencies which showed they are ....open to reinterpretation.

PS: Any marketing MBA type or serious stats type here who has done some deeper research into Indian opinion/exit polling? I'm interested 'coz I'm now involved in some sneaky brave new market research initiative - I see that the contract (with the executing agency) alone, w.r.t scope, method & exclusions, is a nightmare.

habal · Post by **habal** » 14 May 2014 09:13

NDTV exit poll ka kya hua. Why are they not releasing it.

rji not on twitr or fbook.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 14 May 2014 09:14

Of all people S Swamy was accurate. He said even before the exit polls started it was 260-320 as some were close and others were due to booth capturing and EVM rigging. Let us see on Friday how close he is.
Given the trend is towards a BJP wave, dont be surprised if BJP by itself gets 272 on friday

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 14 May 2014 09:16

habal wrote:NDTV exit poll ka kya hua. Why are they not releasing it.

rji not on twitr or fbook.

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/e ... how-523222
?

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 14 May 2014 09:18

^^^^ This is not their own poll. They are discussing other polls.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 14 May 2014 09:24

Modi's first visit will be to Argentina ( halt in Germany or France or Via South Africa which should be avoided for Security reason) then to China on way to Japan SOKO,IMHO only.
Then Iran, Russia,
Indonesia ,Singapore, Vietnam
Europe

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 14 May 2014 09:24

Singha wrote:Times now is indeed showing 292 for NDA...quite a chance from 249 just a day ago!
http://www.timesnow.tv/videoshow/4454647.cms

I think he has abandoned the ORG , gone for PollofPolls and taken the avg of the others including Chanakya...which being 330 drags the avg up. if we exclude Chanakya the avg of the others are around 275.

I am hoping its a safe and solid number like 290-300.

I was surprised, he was conducting his circus with a new number of 292. He was talking about PollOfPolls like it was his baby. His clowns were debating Congress without dynasty. Arnab and Shankarshan were baying for Rahul's head. Except a few clowns, the whole bunch of jokers were lamenting. Sabha is so pissed off at Congress for losing.

How can Moronob shamelessly ignore the 249 and move to 292, as if it was his number all along. He even claimed some credit. Moron.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 14 May 2014 09:27

Anand K wrote:PS: Any marketing MBA type or serious stats type here who has done some deeper research into Indian opinion/exit polling? I'm interested 'coz I'm now involved in some sneaky brave new market research initiative - I see that the contract (with the executing agency) alone, w.r.t scope, method & exclusions, is a nightmare.

I am in MR, and I know what you are saying about the nightmare of managing an MR project on ground.

BTW, that 'CIA' project you were talking about - it was 'handled' by my agency. In fact, it was done by a girl in my own department.

I can tell you the real truth about it - it is too banal. But only offline. (There was no CIA, there was only the hyperactive imagination of armchair patriots).

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 14 May 2014 09:28

Jhujar wrote:Modi's first visit will be to Argentina ( halt in Germany or France or Via South Africa which should be avoided for Security reason) then to China on way to Japan SOKO,IMHO only.
Then Iran, Russia,
Indonesia ,Singapore, Vietnam
Europe

Why Argentina? Are we planning to take over Falklands in a joint operation?

sum · Post by **sum** » 14 May 2014 09:28

From Dr.Patil of five forty3 :

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 6s

Reworking all the numbers with two of the best statisticians; BJP getting clear majority if we refrain from over analyzing demographics

habal · Post by **habal** » 14 May 2014 09:31

Do not fly on Boeing, varna dhoondte rah jaoge.