johneeG wrote:Generally, one assumes that Bakis did not start war with Bhaarath after 1971 due to defeat of 71. But, I was thinking, is it possible that the Bakis have not started the war after 1974 because of missiles?
I have no idea on this, so just consider this as thinking aloud:
Project Devil and Project Valiant seem to be two projects which were pursued. Project valiant was discontinued in 1974 and project devil was discontinued in 1980. Both were declared as failures. But, were they really failures?
wiki wrote:The Government of India launched the Integrated Guided Missile Development Program in 1983 to achieve self-sufficiency in the development and production of wide range of Ballistic Missiles, Surface to Air Missiles etc.
Prithvi was the first missile to be developed under the Program. DRDO attempted to build Surface-to-air Missile under Project Devil.[1]
Variants make use of either liquid or both liquid and solid fuels. Developed as a battlefield missile, it could carry a nuclear warhead in its role as a tactical nuclear weapon.
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Thinking further along these lines:
Is it possible that Bakiland's strategic depth concept is also to counter Bhaarath's missile program?
It seems that Aslam Beg is instrumental in the new war doctrines of Bakiland.
About Aslam Beg:
wiki wrote:Academia and professorship
After the 1965, Mirza was promoted as Lieutenant-Colonel in 1967 and entered in the National Defence University (NDU) to continue his higher education. His course mate included Lieutnenat-Colonel Zahid Ali Akbar who would later directed the Program-706 in the 1970s.[16]
He earned Master of Science in War studies from NDU and published his master's thesis, entitling, "A journey of pain and fear" which provide critical analysis of state sponsored terrorism and its effects on geo-military positions of the countries.[17] In 1971, he was called back to the battle assignments and commanded a SSG regiment during the 1971 war with India. After the war, he left special forces after being promoted to one-star rank, Brigadier, and moved onto to accept the war studies professorship at the NDU.[18] From 1975–78 Brigadier Mirza Aslam BeG tenured as the professor of war studies and remains Chief Instructor of Armed Forces War College (afwc) at the then National Defence University until January 1978.[18]
About the 1971 war, Beg maintained that Pakistan Armed Forces "learned a valuable strategic lesson", and that quoted that the government also learned that "there is no point in going to war unless you are absolutely certain you have the capability to win".[19] From 1994–99, Beg continued his teaching at NDU and published his two books on national security, nuclear weapons development, defence diplomacy and international relations.[20][21]
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wiki wrote:In reference to Pakistan
In Pakistan, the idea of strategic depth was perceived in 1980s by the NDU professor General Mirza Aslam Beg (later Chief of Army Staff working under Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in 1980s).[1] Since then, the Pakistan military establishment has been repeatedly accused of forming a policy that seeks to control Afghanistan, a policy often referred to by the media as "strategic depth". This is given as the reason why Pakistan has supported certain factions of the Taliban in Afghanistan. The current Pakistan military leaders have denied these claims.[citation needed]
Accusations against the Pakistan military
The term "strategic depth" has been used in reference to Pakistan's utilization and contact with Afghanistan following the neighboring country's Soviet intervention, to prevent encirclement from a hostile India and a USSR-supported Afghanistan.[1] Some sources state that the policy to control Afghanistan was formulated by NDU professor, General Mirza Aslam Beg,[2] and an Indian source claims this was continued as an active policy by the Pakistan Armed Forces until the policy was "de jure abolished in 1998 and de facto abolished in 2001", period when General Pervez Musharraf was the Chairman joint chiefs.[3]
According to Richard Olson, U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan, Pakistan military's doctrine of "strategic depth" is a concept in which Pakistan uses Afghanistan as an instrument of strategic security in ongoing tensions with India by attempting to control Afghanistan as a pawn for its own political purposes.[4]
It has been speculated that the Pakistan military's "strategic depth" policy is either military or non-military in nature. The military version would state that the Pakistan military wishes to use Afghan territory as a "strategic rallying point" where they can, in the event of a successful Indian attack, retreat to and re-group for a counter-attack. The non-military version would be based on the idea that Pakistan can improve relations with other Islamic countries and former Soviet states such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, developing improved economic and cultural ties with them and thus making them into strong allies against India.[5]
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So, strategic depth has two components: defensive and offensive.
- Offensive aspect: to use Afghanisthan as the area to train and create terrorists. This is to avoid a full scale war against Bhaarath because Bakiland doesn't have the capability to win the war against Bhaarath.
- Defensive aspect: Before the addition of missiles, bakiland's calculation was whether they can win the war or not or atleast if they can do a stalemate. But, after the addition of missiles, Bakiland has to calculate the additional aspect that the cost of war could be unaffordable for the bakis. Because, most of the bakiland seems to be covered by the Bhaarath's missiles. So, Afghanisthan is supposed to provide the strategic depth against the Bhaarath's missiles. This is just my guess. That means, perhaps the Bakis think that Bhaarath's missiles don't have the range to cover Asthan.
I just checked google. It seems that Afghanisthan is just above 600 KM. A missile of 600 KM range would cover most of Bakiland but would not be able to cover Asthan. So, perhaps, Bakis believe that Bhaarath's missiles have a range of 600 KM.
If Bakis also have similar range missiles, then Bakis would be only able to cover a little part of northern Bhaarath. Given that Baki navy is very weak compared to Bhaarath's navy, this becomes important. So, the question is why didn't the Bakis concentrate on developing their navy?
Generally, one assumes that strategic depth is a concept to be used against IA's ground occupation or air attacks. But, ground occupation and air attacks will meet with stiff resistance and it would not be so easy to gain swift control for Bhaarath in Bak. Further, Bakis can start guerrilla warfare using their vast terror network to tieup the ground forces in urban warfare. So, Bakiland needing strategic depth as a defense against IA seems far stretched. Further, if IA and IAF are the main threats, then the concept of strategic depth should have been formulated much before.
Why was it developed in 1980s when Bhaarath's missile program was around completion or completed?
I think Strategic depth is primarily a defence mechanism against Bhaarath's missiles.
Now, in 1984, Bhaarath went ahead and occupied Siachin and dared Bakis to go to the next step.(I know that Bakis already had the plans of occupying the Siachin and Bhaarath pre-empted it). Bakis didn't take it to the next step. They seem to have retaliated via their proxy outfits by creating terrorism in Bhaarath. After that, Bakis may have had similar plans of occupying the Kargil area.
Finally, mushy seems to have executed them. Perhaps, Bakis thought that just as Bakis kept quiet after Siachin was taken by Bhaarath, similarly, Bhaarath would keep quiet when Kargil is occupied by Bakis. But, Bhaarath didn't keep quiet.
The reaction of Bhaarath seems to have been unexpected by the Bakis. They perhaps feared a fullscale war and missile attacks. So, they threatened to take it to MAD level of bombarding each other with missiles. Dilli would be under the Baki missiles while lahore would be under the Bhaarath's missiles.
Bhaarath decided not to risk it and keep within LOC. Bhaarath meanwhile asked Amirkhan to reign in the Bakis or it would be a full-blown war. Amirkhan promised to do it provided Bhaarath does not occupy any additional land.
After Kargil, Bhaarath realized that Bakis will continue to raise the MAD scenario. So, Bhaarath started development on missile defence program. I think this time, the new-clear wailing is not being raised because Bhaarath has missile defence program that is effective against Baki missiles. Baki missile defence program is Afghanisthan i.e. strategic depth.
