Bharat Rakshak

sanman wrote: ↑28 Oct 2024 23:16 How USA's new missile system is posing a problem for China

[youtube]WOb7ctGfPtE[/youtube

its not the interceptor missile per se but the powerful X band radar [ AN/TPY-2 ] that can search and track upto 4700 km .. these radars can link to other similar US radars like the SPY 1 deployed in many of Japans warships .. literally creating a sensor umbrella across the South China region

ramana wrote: ↑29 Oct 2024 04:57 Many retired jingo generals and experts are unhappy that Kazan meeting happened.
BTW news reports say 90% disengagement already happened.
Oct 29th is the milestone date.
Again 20 October was 62nd anniversary of the 1962 Chinese aggression.
No one remembered it.

Is it true Chinese have withdrawn from Depsang? All of it?

China's Dessert Reclamation is Pretty Impressive

I was watching this CNA documentary on a Chinese family using the donkey route to US via Mexico. If all this is being discussed openly then looks like Party is OK with citizens making use of this route to become refugees in US.

Typical asylum seeker process like UK/CAN is also available by writing a fake article against Beijing and claiming oppression. Looks like 20-30K USD is enough to get a family through safely. At one point the Dad indicated that the US is open to this kind of migration because they want cheap Labour. In the border US town they indicate that daily rates for renovators are already dropping from 150 to 100 USD for these Chinese migrants

One example is of a Shanghai financier who ran with 3M USD of his client money and used it to enter US

9K Chinese known to have entered in Q1

On our side I guess Kstanis and Nirav Modi types will be happy to take chances ! Everyone is on the take !

https://youtu.be/ukkLIFQWG4g?si=l27yMdlThYN4MXfX

China Strives to be Leader of Global Souith

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/26/tech ... end_recirc

Huawei unveils its own Harmony OS for Mobile Phones becoming a rival to iOS and Android.

Excerpts :
On Saturday, Xu said Huawei was aiming for 100,000 applications to be developed for its operating system over the next year. He said it was “crucial” to have a large number of apps and devices.

tandav wrote: ↑26 Nov 2024 17:01 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/26/tech ... end_recirc

Huawei unveils its own Harmony OS for Mobile Phones becoming a rival to iOS and Android.

Excerpts :
On Saturday, Xu said Huawei was aiming for 100,000 applications to be developed for its operating system over the next year. He said it was “crucial” to have a large number of apps and devices.

Huwaei, have been going hammer and tongs at pushing HarmonyOS. We need to look at this as a whole, rather than just a push for their OS. They are trying to develop the whole Tech Stack. Over the past year and a half I have been seeing an increased push from the company in trade shows. Theya re offering fabulous discounts and facilities to woo people to their cloud. Tomorrow, if all Chinese mobile manufacturers move to HarmonyOS, there will be developer interest in developing Apps for their mobiles. They will leverage access to the Chinese market to develop their whole ecosystem, and then cheaper markets in LatAm, and Africa are next on the radar.

I wonder, when India will get it's act together?

I hope the mods will excuse the use of AI for this post, this emerged after an hour of back and forth FWIW.

After extensive prompting, I developed a comprehensive strategy to counter China's grey zone tactics. Below are the strategies with the greatest element of surprise, targeting unexpected weaknesses in China's approach, leveraging unconventional domains, and challenging assumptions about India's capabilities:

---

1. Develop and Deploy Asymmetric Capabilities
Why it’s surprising:
China often assumes it has technological superiority in cyber warfare and information operations. A well-coordinated offensive by India targeting Chinese critical infrastructure (e.g., logistics, digital networks) would catch China off-guard.
Key moves:

• Launch cyberattacks on Chinese logistics or financial networks during grey zone operations.
• Conduct psychological operations (PsyOps) to undermine Chinese troop morale in contested areas.
• Leak sensitive, accurate details about China's covert operations to expose vulnerabilities.

---

2. Deploy Agile and Special Forces
Why it’s surprising:
China uses irregular forces like the People’s Armed Police or civilian militias in grey zone operations. Deploying India's covert units (e.g., the Special Frontier Force) to preempt or neutralize these forces would counter Chinese tactics in ways they are unprepared for.
Key moves:

• Conduct stealth operations to dismantle Chinese encampments or surveillance equipment in contested zones.
• Use special forces for symbolic victories that demonstrate India's tactical superiority without escalating to open conflict.

---

3. Proactively Shape the Narrative
Why it’s surprising:
China heavily relies on controlling the global narrative. A well-coordinated information campaign by India, exposing China's grey zone tactics and illegal actions, could shift diplomatic and public perception.
Key moves:

• Leverage international platforms (e.g., Quad, ASEAN, EU forums) to expose China's salami-slicing strategies.
• Publicize satellite imagery or videos of Chinese intrusions.
• Coordinate with global media to undermine China's propaganda advantage.

---

4. Strengthen Local Communities
Why it’s surprising:
China expects India to focus on military solutions, not empowering local populations. Strengthening border communities could turn them into a first line of deterrence, complicating China's plans for incremental gains.
Key moves:

• Arm and train local volunteers in defensive tactics while keeping them below the threshold of a militia.
• Establish rapid communication networks for real-time reporting of Chinese activities.
• Build infrastructure that enhances the livelihood and visibility of local populations in contested areas.

---

5. Broaden Economic and Trade Pressure
Why it’s surprising:
China assumes India is economically dependent on it. A sudden and significant reduction in reliance on Chinese goods, coupled with a shift to domestic manufacturing ("Make in India") or alternative markets, could signal India's intent to reduce vulnerability to economic coercion.
Key moves:

• Impose targeted tariffs on Chinese imports or block specific products.
• Create alliances with countries like Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea for alternative supply chains.
• Leverage India's tech talent to outpace China in key industries like AI or renewable energy.

---

6. Escalate Through Controlled Military Measures
Why it’s surprising:
China may not expect India to respond militarily to grey zone tactics, as they operate below the threshold of traditional conflict. A calibrated military response could alter China's risk calculus.
Key moves:

• Surprise deployments of advanced weapons systems (e.g., BrahMos missiles) in contested areas.
• Use naval forces to challenge Chinese ambitions in the Indian Ocean, an area where India holds an advantage.
• Execute unannounced military exercises near the LAC to demonstrate readiness.

---

7. Counter Chinese Counter-Surveillance
Why it’s surprising:
If India deploys counter-surveillance techniques effectively, such as stealth drones or jamming systems, it would negate China's technological edge and catch them off-guard.
Key moves:

• Employ electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons or jamming to neutralize Chinese communication and surveillance tools.
• Use low-visibility drones for intelligence gathering and border monitoring.
• Deploy fake infrastructure projects to mislead Chinese surveillance systems.

---

8. Leverage Asymmetric Naval Power
Why it’s surprising:
China focuses on the land border, expecting limited Indian naval pressure. Shifting pressure to the maritime domain in the Indian Ocean would be unexpected and force China to overstretch its resources.
Key moves:

• Increase India's naval presence near Chinese trade routes, specifically in chokepoints like the Malacca Strait.
• Conduct joint naval patrols with Quad partners, signaling India's resolve to contest Chinese aggression.
• Deploy submarines or maritime surveillance systems to track Chinese vessels covertly.

---

Key Recommendation for Surprise
The greatest surprise would come from a combination of asymmetric capabilities (cyber, special forces, and information warfare) with unexpected actions in the maritime domain. These moves would challenge China's perception of India's capabilities and force Beijing to reconsider its strategy.

Comprehensive Action Plan to Counter China's Grey Zone Tactics with Surprise Elements
This plan integrates asymmetric capabilities, unconventional responses, and unexpected domain shifts to neutralize China's grey zone tactics effectively. Each step outlines actionable measures, intended outcomes, and responsible entities.

---

Phase 1: Preparation and Capacity Building (6–12 Months)

1. Develop and Deploy Asymmetric Capabilities
Action Steps:

• Establish a dedicated cyber-offensive unit under India’s National Cyber Security Coordinator to target vulnerabilities in Chinese systems (e.g., logistics, finance, communication).
• Train the Special Frontier Force (SFF) and other elite units in covert grey zone operations, including sabotage, intelligence gathering, and PsyOps.
• Invest in AI-based tools to monitor and counter Chinese misinformation campaigns globally.

Intended Outcome: Create disruptive capabilities that can impose costs on China's operations.
Responsible Entities: Ministry of Defence (MoD), National Cyber Coordination Centre (NCCC), Research and Analysis Wing (RAW).

---

2. Strengthen Local Communities
Action Steps:

• Launch an Integrated Border Development Program to empower border communities with economic incentives, skill training, and improved infrastructure.
• Form Community Defense Units (CDUs) to act as a first line of reporting and defense against Chinese intrusions, ensuring they remain under civilian control to avoid escalation.
• Install solar-powered communication hubs for real-time information sharing in remote border villages.

Intended Outcome: Increase human presence and resistance in contested areas, complicating Chinese incursions.
Responsible Entities: Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), Border Roads Organisation (BRO), local governments.

---

3. Strengthen Naval Capabilities for Asymmetric Pressure
Action Steps:

• Deploy advanced Indian Navy platforms (e.g., INS Arihant, P-8I Poseidon aircraft) to monitor Chinese activities in the Indian Ocean.
• Conduct joint naval patrols with Quad nations in the Malacca Strait and South China Sea.
• Establish listening posts in strategic locations like the Andaman and Nicobar Islands to track Chinese vessels.

Intended Outcome: Shift China's focus to maritime vulnerabilities, forcing resource redistribution.
Responsible Entities: Indian Navy, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).

---

Phase 2: Execution and Active Operations (12–24 Months)

4. Proactively Shape the Narrative
Action Steps:

• Launch a global information campaign exposing China's salami-slicing tactics using satellite imagery, real-time videos of incursions, and local testimonies.
• Collaborate with global media outlets (e.g., BBC, Reuters) and leverage social media platforms to counter Chinese propaganda.
• Partner with international think tanks to publish white papers and reports on China's grey zone operations.

Intended Outcome: Shape international opinion, isolating China diplomatically and weakening its narrative.
Responsible Entities: MEA, Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, Indian media.

---

5. Deploy Agile and Special Forces
Action Steps:

• Conduct stealth operations using the SFF to dismantle Chinese encampments or infrastructure in disputed areas.
• Train and deploy high-mobility units with helicopter support for rapid response to intrusions.
• Establish covert operations to create symbolic victories (e.g., reclaiming lost territory or exposing Chinese vulnerabilities).

Intended Outcome: Impose physical and psychological costs on China's grey zone forces without overt escalation.
Responsible Entities: MoD, SFF, Indian Air Force (IAF).

---

6. Counter Chinese Surveillance and Propaganda
Action Steps:

• Deploy low-visibility drones for covert monitoring of Chinese activities in contested zones.
• Use electronic warfare capabilities to jam Chinese communications and surveillance systems along the LAC.
• Establish AI-based misinformation detection systems to track and counter Chinese social media bots.

Intended Outcome: Neutralize China's technological edge in surveillance and information warfare.
Responsible Entities: Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), NCCC, MoD.

---

7. Shift Focus to Maritime Pressure
Action Steps:

• Increase naval presence near Chinese trade routes, focusing on chokepoints like the Malacca Strait.
• Conduct covert submarine patrols near Chinese ports and naval bases in the Indian Ocean.
• Use maritime surveillance to track Chinese vessels and share intelligence with Quad partners.

Intended Outcome: Force China to divert resources to secure maritime interests, reducing pressure on land borders.
Responsible Entities: Indian Navy, MEA, Quad partners.

---

Phase 3: Consolidation and Strategic Advantage (24+ Months)

8. Broaden Economic and Trade Pressure
Action Steps:

• Accelerate the "Make in India" initiative to reduce reliance on Chinese imports, particularly in critical sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals.
• Impose targeted tariffs on Chinese goods and incentivize domestic production or imports from alternative partners.
• Collaborate with regional players like Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan to create a resilient supply chain alliance.

Intended Outcome: Reduce India's economic vulnerability to Chinese coercion while creating economic costs for China.
Responsible Entities: Ministry of Commerce, NITI Aayog, industry associations.

---

9. Leverage Regional and Global Diplomacy
Action Steps:

• Deepen ties with Southeast Asian nations by offering economic and military cooperation to counter Chinese aggression.
• Strengthen India’s leadership in the Quad and actively involve ASEAN members in discussions on grey zone tactics.
• Use India’s role in international organizations (e.g., UN, G20) to highlight China’s actions as destabilizing and illegal.

Intended Outcome: Build a coalition that diplomatically isolates China and enhances India’s strategic standing.
Responsible Entities: MEA, PMO.

---

10. Escalate Controlled Military Measures
Action Steps:

• Deploy advanced weapons systems (e.g., BrahMos missiles) along critical sectors of the LAC as a deterrent.
• Conduct surprise military exercises with full media coverage to signal India’s readiness.
• Develop and deploy mobile artillery units for flexible, rapid responses in disputed areas.

Intended Outcome: Escalate selectively to deter further Chinese provocations without triggering full-scale conflict.
Responsible Entities: MoD, Indian Army, IAF.

---

Risk Mitigation and Contingency Planning
Escalation Management: Establish clear rules of engagement and communication channels to avoid unintended escalation.
Economic Diversification: Mitigate Chinese economic retaliation by strengthening trade ties with other partners.
Public Support: Keep domestic audiences informed about the rationale behind these actions to ensure sustained public and political backing.

Mukesh.Kumar wrote: ↑26 Nov 2024 17:19

tandav wrote: ↑26 Nov 2024 17:01 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/26/tech ... end_recirc

Huawei unveils its own Harmony OS for Mobile Phones becoming a rival to iOS and Android.

Excerpts :
On Saturday, Xu said Huawei was aiming for 100,000 applications to be developed for its operating system over the next year. He said it was “crucial” to have a large number of apps and devices.

Huwaei, have been going hammer and tongs at pushing HarmonyOS. We need to look at this as a whole, rather than just a push for their OS. They are trying to develop the whole Tech Stack. Over the past year and a half I have been seeing an increased push from the company in trade shows. Theya re offering fabulous discounts and facilities to woo people to their cloud. Tomorrow, if all Chinese mobile manufacturers move to HarmonyOS, there will be developer interest in developing Apps for their mobiles. They will leverage access to the Chinese market to develop their whole ecosystem, and then cheaper markets in LatAm, and Africa are next on the radar.

I wonder, when India will get it's act together?

India should also promote alternate open source OS along with mobile phone manufacturing Tech Stack. We are currently digital slaves of Android and iOS and very shortly under Harmony OS

I thought we already made a mobile OS on a unix kernel last year IIRC ? Cant remember its name.

Cyrano wrote: ↑27 Nov 2024 17:42 I thought we already made a mobile OS on a Linux kernel last year IIRC ? Cant remember its name.

Launched last year, but since then not much news. BharOS developed at IIT-Chennai. Closed source, Linux kernel.

Their website is literally dead.

Indian Army completes patrols of Patrol points along Depsang plains.

https://theprint.in/defence/photos-take ... s/2387299/

Most satisfying that Couptaji's rag printed this report.

sanman wrote: ↑24 Nov 2024 15:55 China Strives to be Leader of Global Souith

China is dumping goods in Global South and stifling their nascent mfg capacity.

Can't be a leader without followers

ramana wrote: ↑06 Dec 2024 07:33

sanman wrote: ↑24 Nov 2024 15:55 China Strives to be Leader of Global Souith

China is dumping goods in Global South and stifling their nascent mfg capacity.

Can't be a leader without followers

China is debt-trapping Global South

China was until recently puffing out its chest and talking about 'G2' -- bipolar world dominated by US and China.

Now wind has been taken out of China's sails, and so it's scrambling to call itself 'Leader of Global South'
They're just scrambling to save face, and looking for a fallback position.

Cyrano wrote: ↑27 Nov 2024 17:42 I thought we already made a mobile OS on a unix kernel last year IIRC ? Cant remember its name.

Churning out an OS is not a big deal. You need the hardware ecosystem where it can thrive. India being such a large market for mobile phones should be in the business of manufacturing many local brand smart phones and then perhaps an India OS can thrive in such a system. University kids creating another OS is of no use, if no entrepreneur backed by the right investors can take it and build an ecosystem around it. That is a huge risk of course. But our IT giants have no appetite to take such risks even though they can churn out and sustain large amounts of capital for a long time.

The good Lt Gen P. R. Shankar is saying that the decline (People's daily - the official CCP news) in China is now official. Apparently some inside economist in China has stated that GDP numbers were inflated by at least 3% in reporting. Consumer inflation rate is near zero, i.e. no domestic consumption which hikes up inflation. China's factory gate inflation is negative i.e. wholesale price from factory has dropped and is now negative to where it was a few years back. Floor space under construction is -12%. Real Estate/Building sector has huge negative impact which is approx 30% of GDP. Guangdong (their export engine) is under severe retrenchment, unemployment is raging high, factory workers are back to their village. 2/3 of private firms are under loss. Emperor Eleven has been firing all top generals, officials in PLA, CCP, etc., scared stiff who will replace him. BTW China is now worried about shrinking population, the decline is serious, the 1 child policy is now biting them big time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vLyMrOAX_4

YouTube channels worth a listen:

China Update
https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaUpdate

Digging to China
https://www.youtube.com/@diggingtochina

Changes in Youtube's algorithm means these guys have to give their podcasts click-bait titles; but the content is good.

India's NSA Ajit Doval to travel to Beijing on 17-18th Dec for SR (Spl Rep) level talks on border issues with Chinese Foreign minister Wang Yi; This marks the resumption of SR level talks between India-China & was agreed during PM Modi, China Prez Xi meet in Kazan.

War has become bimodal.
At low end you have terrorist groups with cheap drones. Some nations fall in this category.

At high end you have great powers with ballistic missiles armed with non nuclear warheads.

Eg Russian Oreshnik.

US has CPGM

While we sleep and wade like headless chickens, this is what is happening in China.

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/manufactu ... irect=true

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/17/opin ... uring.html

China had its Sputnik moment — his name was Donald Trump,” Jim McGregor, a business consultant who lived in China for 30 years, told me. “He woke them up to the fact that they needed an all-hands-on-deck effort to take their indigenous scientific, innovative and advanced manufacturing skills to a new level.”

In 2000, “the United States and its allies in Asia, Europe and Latin America accounted for the overwhelming majority of global industrial production, with China at just 6 percent even after two decades of rapid growth.” By 2030, Smith wrote, the U.N. agency predicts “China will account for 45 percent of all global manufacturing, single-handedly matching or outmatching the U.S. and all of its allies.

In 2019, as Trump was finishing his last term, net lending by Chinese banks to domestic industries was $83 billion. Last year it swelled to $670 billion

India and China concluded the SR talks between Sri Ajit Doval and Mr. Wang Yi. They had six points agreement.

https://x.com/sidhant/status/1869383427 ... XcHpg&s=19

Can someone post the pictures of the agreement?

Single page summary below. Was not able to locate detailed agreement, if released



(Apologies for large image, pls. resize / delete post if not ok)

Thanks Manish.

Meantime: https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india ... for-india/

In Jaipur Dialogues, Lt Gen P R Shankar is clearly stating that Bangladesh play is a China play. The US replaced Sheikh Hasina with their chamcha YouAnus simply because they don't like the cozy play between Hasina and Modiji. But the US played their cards towards China actually. The Paki Army is in tight embrace with the Chinese and the Puke Navy is being expanded via China. China is using the Pukes to test out its weapons and is being generous about sharing its maal. China has the Puke army at its beck and call. China's main aim is to get neighbors of India on its side.

The recent China India talks simply yielded a tactical retreat for China to the tune of 15-20 km backup. Nowhere has China retreated back, in the south china sea area it has not given up an inch. The US and China are actually in tussle in the China seas with Taiwan, Japan/Korea and Phillipines. With DJT maybe there will be realization about BD and India can regain Hasina. Also the Rus-Ukr war stoppage could hurt China big time. DJT has his guns on China economically. India has to prevent China to enter into India via investments to transfer is manufacturing clout into India.

India has to realize that all its neighbors are like pawns in US/China game - Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, BD and of course the Pukes. Failing neighbors are an issue and India has to deal with the fall out and absorb the implosion if any. This is where a Chanakya type thinking is needed. India has to coax the neighbors into folding into India as an entity, they get economic benefits and are treated like a state of India, no armies, no bases possible with either China or the US. Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka are prime candidates. BD is next but its jihadi population is not welcome into India. Pukes we can do without but maybe Balochs, Sindhs yes, this will neuter China and US playing games with India.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTP6Il6CCi4

A Comparison of the Statements from India & China after the SRs Meeting - C3S

https://www.twz.com/air/china-stuns-wit ... appearance
China Stuns With Heavy Stealth Tactical Jet’s Sudden Appearance (Updated)
This is the most advanced flying machine we have seen out of China, lacking any tails and packing stealth and long range.

Chinese EV-makers in Thailand Are Ousting Japan

bala wrote: ↑24 Dec 2024 08:28 In Jaipur Dialogues, Lt Gen P R Shankar is clearly stating that Bangladesh play is a China play. The US replaced Sheikh Hasina with their chamcha YouAnus simply because they don't like the cozy play between Hasina and Modiji. But the US played their cards towards China actually. The Paki Army is in tight embrace with the Chinese and the Puke Navy is being expanded via China. China is using the Pukes to test out its weapons and is being generous about sharing its maal. China has the Puke army at its beck and call. China's main aim is to get neighbors of India on its side.

The recent China India talks simply yielded a tactical retreat for China to the tune of 15-20 km backup. Nowhere has China retreated back, in the south china sea area it has not given up an inch. The US and China are actually in tussle in the China seas with Taiwan, Japan/Korea and Phillipines. With DJT maybe there will be realization about BD and India can regain Hasina. Also the Rus-Ukr war stoppage could hurt China big time. DJT has his guns on China economically. India has to prevent China to enter into India via investments to transfer is manufacturing clout into India.

India has to realize that all its neighbors are like pawns in US/China game - Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, BD and of course the Pukes. Failing neighbors are an issue and India has to deal with the fall out and absorb the implosion if any. This is where a Chanakya type thinking is needed. India has to coax the neighbors into folding into India as an entity, they get economic benefits and are treated like a state of India, no armies, no bases possible with either China or the US. Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka are prime candidates. BD is next but its jihadi population is not welcome into India. Pukes we can do without but maybe Balochs, Sindhs yes, this will neuter China and US playing games with India.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTP6Il6CCi4

Erroneous analysis.

India is doing all that is being suggested.
Look at Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bhutan, and Nepal.
BD was a slow melt towards Jihadis even under Sheikh Hasina.

ramana wrote: ↑06 Dec 2024 07:29 Indian Army completes patrols of Patrol points along Depsang plains.

https://theprint.in/defence/photos-take ... s/2387299/

In retrospect I think India used random tit for tat strategy to bring about cooperation by China.

Axelrod wrote in his book "Evolution of Cooperation" that random tit for tat strategy brings about cooperation in a two person game. He considered the game as a repetitive Prisoner's Dilemma.

One side attacks and the other side has three choices
Respond
Do nothing
Leave the game aka surrender.
From 2012 onwards China did repeated attacks and India chose to do nothing. Dokhlam was first time India redeployed forces to counter the attack. Again at Galwan in 2020 and Yangtse in 2022 India responded.

All these exchanges lead to the 2024 agreement.

ramana wrote: ↑08 Jan 2025 06:10
In retrospect I think India used random tit for tat strategy to bring about cooperation by China.

Axelrod wrote in his book "Evolution of Cooperation" that random tit for tat strategy brings about cooperation in a two person game. He considered the game as a repetitive Prisoner's Dilemma.

All these exchanges lead to the 2024 agreement.

We have finally a foreign ministry that understands this. In the past, our foreign policy was either clueless on how such games work, or compromised. Hope we have some process to keep and grow our understanding and scholarship within foreign ministry. Just taking one exam wonders and hoping they would make great foreign policy workers is not going to work against China.

China cooking the books
https://youtu.be/ki0DHcngRPc?si=qin9xwAX-KcXgc7x

China is apparently caught in a deflationary spiral. My concern is that war is one way of getting out of this spiral.

Wiki: A deflationary spiral is a situation where decreases in the price level lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and demand, which leads to further decreases in the price level.Since reductions in general price level are called deflation, a deflationary spiral occurs when reductions in price lead to a vicious circle, where a problem exacerbates its own cause.

China Crashes as Investors Jump Ship | Chinese Economy | US-China: AI Race
https://youtu.be/LezB2iVcScg?si=PVsdUoWtZHeCWKdr via @YouTube

@VGokhale59·4h

My piece for India Today on why China’s moves to apply industrial ‘sanctions’ on India is likely to be the biggest challenge for India’s relations with China in 2025.

A_Gupta wrote: ↑12 Jan 2025 02:09 China is apparently caught in a deflationary spiral. My concern is that war is one way of getting out of this spiral.

Wiki: A deflationary spiral is a situation where decreases in the price level lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and demand, which leads to further decreases in the price level.Since reductions in general price level are called deflation, a deflationary spiral occurs when reductions in price lead to a vicious circle, where a problem exacerbates its own cause.

China Crashes as Investors Jump Ship | Chinese Economy | US-China: AI Race
https://youtu.be/LezB2iVcScg?si=PVsdUoWtZHeCWKdr via @YouTube

That would hasten China's downfall. Think about it.

https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/ ... as-sinopec

Sri Lanka's foreign minister said on Wednesday that the South Asian island nation had signed an agreement with Chinese state energy giant Sinopec to fast-track a proposed $3.7 billion oil refinery in its southern port city of Hambantota.

Sinopec and Sri Lanka will jointly decide the share of refined fuel that will be exported from the facility, Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath told reporters.

A_Gupta wrote: ↑08 Jan 2025 09:25 China cooking the books
https://youtu.be/ki0DHcngRPc?si=qin9xwAX-KcXgc7x

Richard Koo calls it a balance sheet recession similar to Japan in the 90s where any new money provided(printed) by govt to companies/citizens is used for paying the enormous debt and saving for a rainy day. Took Japanese companies 20 years or so to feel comfortable spending again but they could not be forced unlike a commie state

https://youtu.be/KRSpfG6hRTQ?si=dgS8FrklxfzIQoXL

Giant Beijing military city:
https://youtu.be/1knOk3OpgQ0?si=df_mgk337AZstvi_

China deliberately hampering iPhone production in India in three ways, say reports
https://9to5mac.com/2025/02/18/china-de ... y-reports/

https://youtu.be/PlPk9J0yYIg?si=J1DwJRx-AOJyAsow

When Economic Collapse Becomes the Only Path to Change

The downfall of modern dictatorships often hinges not on armed uprisings but on economic pressures. The South Korean democracy movement in 1987 serves as a key example, where mass protests, labor strikes, and international financial pressures forced a dictatorship to step down without violence. In China, while protests like the 1989 Tiananmen and the White Paper Movement failed to topple the regime due to economic resilience, the country may soon face a crucial moment. As China attempts to transition from a labor-based economy to a high-tech, silicon-based economy, the balance between authoritarianism and technological innovation may determine whether the Communist Party can survive the coming economic challenges.

^^^ Another western wet dream!

It never occurrs to them that Chinese culture and people are perhaps wary, untrusting of democracy which they may perceive as chaotic and impeding 'progress' and may actually prefer the order and predictability imposed by an authoritative communist model. Outsiders may argue that it is an illusion but Chinese people may hold a different view. (They only have to look at India )

Democratic self rule requires/comes with a certain degree of individual decision making and responsibility taking that has been bred out of Chinese psyche over several generations. Not sure they are ready or care for democracy. IMHO only.