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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 30 Jan 2017 13:35
by kvraghav
So some one talks about avoiding taxes and caring for the poor in the same sentence? Sounds contradicting to me unless we all decide to not pay taxes and just help the poor in whichever way we want. People choose their lively hood. Some choose business accepting the risks and gains whereas others choose jobs. All have risks and relative earnings. IT guys accept the risk of getting thrown out and entire life going upside down in a single email. Doctors have to slog till their 50s to earn good money. Govt official had to take the risk of taking exams till success else risk a total failure in career. All the risks does not remove the fact that we have to still pay taxes.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 30 Jan 2017 18:06
by jamwal
kiranA wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:Sorry, KiranA, all the disruption due to demonetization is the responsibility of those who made the black economy in India in the first place.

When termites attack a house here, the people have to leave, the house is enclosed in a tent, and the termite poisons are released. Yes, people are inconvenienced.

You are in the position of the termites complaining about the people who were inconvenienced.
Don't be a righteous termite!
So you do admit there was disruption and there was suffering. This is not what your implied before in the previous post. What do you mean I am in position of termites because i complain about sufferings (DEATHS not "inconvenienced" - the righteous heartlessness is amazing! - Don't be that)?

No the suffering is clearly on the hands of the incompetent, venal govt and bureacracy. they know who are black money hoarders (they themselves are), they can raid them , they can catch them but they are too corrupt to do it. Instead they attacked the millions who kept that now worthless toilet paper because they believed in the sanctity of the promise "I promise to pay the bearer ...".

If inconsiderate , dishonest, hypocrite chors like you are defending and representing paid their taxes honestly then there would have been no need of this demonetisation. I am a very small fry, lost nothing in terms of black money, but my business did suffer for a while.

Was I inconvenienced and lost some income ? Yes.

Do I think execution was perfect ? No , could've been better.

Will my declared taxable income be higher this year ? Yes.

Am I happy about it ? Yes. Some businesses like mine did need a moderate kick in ass to get in line. Some need much more.

What do I think of shameless chors whining like you are ? Screw them. Happy to see them crying.

Does it make me a scoundrel pretending to be a patriot ? If yes, screw you. If no, screw you even then.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 30 Jan 2017 18:18
by rahulm
No cash withdrawal limit from ATM from Feb 1: RBI
limits placed on cash withdrawals from ATMs stand withdrawn from Feb 1. However, the weekly withdrawal limit of Rs 24,000 will continue. The central bank also said that all limits on current account and overdraft accounts stand withdrawn with immediate effect. The RBI, however, allowed the banks to maintain their discretion on own operating limits.
On a review of the pace of remonetisation, it has been decided to partially restore status quo ante,”
RBI Is injecting more cash liquidity into the system. This move is retrograde as it will slow the transition to epayments by businesses and encourage the black economy. It's timing, less than a week before the poll means it could be a poll sop.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 30 Jan 2017 18:56
by A_Gupta
If some businesses pay taxes scrupulously and their competition does not, the law-abiding businesses may be placed at a disadvantage. All the tax-evading businesses need to be penalized.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 30 Jan 2017 19:02
by A_Gupta
rahulm wrote: RBI Is injecting more cash liquidity into the system. This move is retrograde as it will slow the transition to epayments by businesses and encourage the black economy. It's timing, less than a week before the poll means it could be a poll sop.
Contrast with this news-item:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mar ... 867947.cms
RBI may lift cash withdrawal caps but govt could scuttle plan
Banks expect cash withdrawal restrictions to ease from mid-February, especially for people engaged in business. However, some believe that the government may advise the Reserve Bank of India against lifting the restrictions completely before the assembly elections in five states including Uttar Pradesh and Punjab conclude in mid-March.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 30 Jan 2017 19:03
by Neela
ANIVerified account
‏@ANI_news
IT Dept attached 42 properties during the last few days, issued 87 notices under prohibition of Benami property transaction Act: IT sources
2:16 PM - 30 Jan 2017 from New Delhi, India
Ignore the words of PMO at your own peril.
The war has begun.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 30 Jan 2017 20:18
by habal
A_Gupta wrote:
rahulm wrote: RBI Is injecting more cash liquidity into the system. This move is retrograde as it will slow the transition to epayments by businesses and encourage the black economy. It's timing, less than a week before the poll means it could be a poll sop.
Contrast with this news-item:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mar ... 867947.cms
RBI may lift cash withdrawal caps but govt could scuttle plan
Banks expect cash withdrawal restrictions to ease from mid-February, especially for people engaged in business. However, some believe that the government may advise the Reserve Bank of India against lifting the restrictions completely before the assembly elections in five states including Uttar Pradesh and Punjab conclude in mid-March.
this is a govt with really lofty ambitions. Remove cash withdrawal cap after UP elections so that the playing field is tilted towards ruling party. This is the height of BJPs imagination.

this was main objective of demonitisation from get go. It was entirely a political stunt. When is the next main election ? GJ on Jan 18 and KA on May 18, ₹2000/₹500 will be banned on that date and some new fangled note will be issued 'in drip feed' to only those a/c holders who say 'vande' to bank teller.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 30 Jan 2017 20:28
by Singha
Rush in blr to use gift deed to spread property to family ahead of property card aystem being started. ...plus any bensmi heat from center

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 30 Jan 2017 20:54
by Supratik
@habal,

Withdrawal limit is being lifted from Feb 1.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 30 Jan 2017 22:46
by pankajs
Singha wrote:Rush in blr to use gift deed to spread property to family ahead of property card aystem being started. ...plus any bensmi heat from center
That still leaves a trail all nicely documented via deeds. Wife/children can explain the gift but the husband/father/mother will have to account for the original purchase. At least that is how I see it.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 00:09
by hanumadu
habal wrote:
this is a govt with really lofty ambitions. Remove cash withdrawal cap after UP elections so that the playing field is tilted towards ruling party. This is the height of BJPs imagination.

this was main objective of demonitisation from get go. It was entirely a political stunt. When is the next main election ? GJ on Jan 18 and KA on May 18, ₹2000/₹500 will be banned on that date and some new fangled note will be issued 'in drip feed' to only those a/c holders who say 'vande' to bank teller.
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

I thought you were a Hidutvawadi and BJP supporter.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 00:46
by Suraj
pankajs wrote:
Singha wrote:Rush in blr to use gift deed to spread property to family ahead of property card aystem being started. ...plus any bensmi heat from center
That still leaves a trail all nicely documented via deeds. Wife/children can explain the gift but the husband/father/mother will have to account for the original purchase. At least that is how I see it.
Exactly. Gift deeds do nothing more than formally record the original benami holder's title ownership and ensures he can't claim he's not the owner in the first place. The smartest thing one can do in such a situation is eliminate any plausible paper trail, not CREATE one. GoI is just going to tell them all 'thank you for pasting Kick Me to your own mush'.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 01:38
by SBajwa
I have some rupees that I plan to convert at IGI sometimes in February. My sister did it at airport in December.
I have been traveling back and forth from India from last 30 years and now it is habit to keep minimum of Rs 25,000 with you.
This is to buy a local phone, bribe police if getting harassed, pay for petrol/tolls, pay for vehicle issues, pay for food/travel to punjab from delhi various other things. You need some amount for at least first few days., before you can go to the local bank and get the money out. Many of my debit/credit cards did not worked in past (due to restrictions by the credit card companies ) as soon as you get out of IGI (only work in Five star places).

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 02:32
by vijayk
Supratik wrote:@habal,

Withdrawal limit is being lifted from Feb 1.
Lets Facts not come in their way

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 09:07
by tandav
So what is actually the total amount of demonetized money that have been deposited with the RBI after the the DEMO exercise?

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 09:09
by A_Gupta
Minhaz Merchant:
http://businessworld.in/article/Is-Indi ... 17-112152/
"Chidambaram and Manmohan Singh's assessment of the economic impact of withdrawal of high denomination bank notes was wrong"
In the days and weeks following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement withdrawing Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 bank notes, prophets of doom rose in chorus: the end, they said, is nigh.

Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh declared in parliament that India’s GDP in fiscal 2017 would plunge by 2 per cent. He added darkly that the implementation of demonetisation reflected “monumental mismanagement ”.

Former Finance Minister P. Chidambaram was even more scathing. He appeared on a series of television shows to warn that bank liquidity would take “seven months” to normalise.

Dr. Manmohan Singh and P. Chidambaram have, for the better part of two decades, run the Indian economy in one capacity or the other. How accurate has their assessment of the impact of demonetisation proved?

Not very. To be fair, both Dr. Singh and Chidambaram were right to describe the implementation of demonetisation and remonetisation as deeply flawed. But their assessment of the economic impact of withdrawal of high denomination bank notes was wrong.

Here’s why. Aditya Puri, Managing Director and CEO of HDFC Bank, is the epitome of rectitude. He runs one of the most successful and professional banks in the country. His views on the after-effects of demonetisation are thoughtful and precise:

“The transitory and long-term effect should be viewed separately. The transitory pain is largely behind us. Increase in deposits has brought down interest rates. The process of digitisation has been speeded up by three to five years. This will increase transparency, reduce rent seeking, improve financial inclusion and reduce costs. Now, we have 4 lakh point of sales (PoS) terminals, compared with 2.9 lakh pre-demonitisation. Card swipes have gone up by 300 per cent. We feel excessive pessimism is not warranted. We spoke to top executives across industry from Reliance and Mahindra Finance to Birla Finance, ITC, HUL, Pidilife, Marico and even Jaguar. The response was the same – recovery has been far more V-shaped than they expected. Activity is close to normal and there is general expectation of recovery in this quarter.”
But I hope, permanent pain for those for whom "kithna gaya?" is applicable. :)

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 09:10
by kiranA
Suraj wrote:
kiranA wrote:
A woman suffers for childbirth because there is a clear realisible benefit of that suffering - the birth of her child.
So what ??!! Childbirth causes DEATHS! It's not an inconvenience!! It should be banned!

Sounds silly ? Yeah, that's because that's how YOU sound when you try to dance around talking about deaths and demonetization.

You don't like the demonetization act ? Fine. It inconvenienced you. It affected business plans maybe. You think it's unfair that government is corrupt. Regardless, everyone's black money became equally useless on Nov 8 2016.
kiranA wrote:And its own promise " To pay the bearer". And despite such massive suffering there is nothing to show for it .
Your opinion. Not a fact. This thread has shown repeatedly that those who squeal loudest and resort to the most histrionics typically end up admitting they had their own fingers burnt.
kiranA wrote:I did not say using black money is good. But its clear many people who may have black money are very productive people and extremely useful to society. Not paying tax is ofcourse a crime but its not a sin.
It's not your choice to decide whether or not it's a sin. When a person chooses to avoid paying taxes or disclosing income, they have no further claim to asserting what the nature of their act is, or making up definitions of crime and sin as you go along.

The most respectable position you can take is to assert that you concealed income or didn't pay taxes because you fundamentally feel the government will mismanage it, and that you are willing to accept the consequences of that action. That means you're willing to accept the burden of punishment for your act to make your point. Any further verbal embellishment of your actions is an insult to other peoples' intelligence. If you want to receive *some* respect, just say you broke the law because you believe the law to be unfair. Even I can respect a person to an extent for being willing to accept the consequences of his voluntary choice in order to make a point. But don't run around saying nonsense like how someone died standing in a line therefore DeMo is bad, or 'crime but not a sin'. That sort of noise gets people banned.
I havent lost a paisa due to demon. I havent broken a law anywhere. I dont have a dime in "black money". I did my engg in IIT and mba(major in finance) from very reputed institute. I have been a source of pride to whoever surrounded me - whether parents, college or colleagues. You wont get more upright citizen than me.

I dont recall any place where my personal integrity was questioned or slandered like here , an accomplished Indian, in a forum labelled "bharat rakshak".

I ignored initial taunts as I was naive enough to think that eventually you as moderator will involve on behalf of me as such personal slander is unfit for civilized debate. But I was wrong and I had enough harassment. I voluntarily withdraw from this thread until YOU apologize to me for disgracefully attempting to slander my personal integrity.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 09:19
by Dasari
habal wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:
Contrast with this news-item:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mar ... 867947.cms
RBI may lift cash withdrawal caps but govt could scuttle plan
this is a govt with really lofty ambitions. Remove cash withdrawal cap after UP elections so that the playing field is tilted towards ruling party. This is the height of BJPs imagination.

this was main objective of demonitisation from get go. It was entirely a political stunt. When is the next main election ? GJ on Jan 18 and KA on May 18, ₹2000/₹500 will be banned on that date and some new fangled note will be issued 'in drip feed' to only those a/c holders who say 'vande' to bank teller.
For last two months (after the first 2 weeks of euphoria) the argument has been that demonetization was ill conceived and BJP would pay heavy price for it. Even strong BJP supporters lamented and argued what good a demo is when BJP is going to pay heavy price for doing the right thing for the country and at the end it would lose next elections.

Now when pundits were proven wrong on the severity of negative aspects of demo and it appears that it may infact turn out to be positive for BJP, you start accusing them that it was all done for political reasons. You can't have both ways. Is demo good for the country or not? Take a position on this, not on whether BJP is going to cash it or not. We don't care about fortunes of political parties, although there is nothing wrong if they cash on a job well done.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 09:23
by Shaktimaan
Saars, after the cash ban a grocery store near me in Mumbai started accepting Paytm payments sometime in December. Yesterday, he told me he had stopped accepting Paytm and was now back to 100 percent cash. The end of the cash squeeze also means the end of cashless transactions for many people.

What is the long term way to pressurize people towards cashless? I hope the Union Budget shows the way tomorrow.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 09:26
by hanumadu
kiranA wrote: I voluntarily withdraw from this thread until YOU apologize to me for disgracefully attempting to slander my personal integrity.
Yeah, Right. :lol:
I guess we got rid of you then.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 09:38
by Supratik
Long term solution is to have a digital database of all shops seeded by PAN and Adhaar.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 09:46
by sudarshan
hanumadu wrote:
kiranA wrote: I voluntarily withdraw from this thread until YOU apologize to me for disgracefully attempting to slander my personal integrity.
Yeah, Right. :lol:
I guess we got rid of you then.
That's a paki withdrawal. Blame the other person, and downhill ski with H&D intact. Very tactical (but not very strategic).

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 10:12
by Dasari
Shaktimaan wrote:Saars, after the cash ban a grocery store near me in Mumbai started accepting Paytm payments sometime in December. Yesterday, he told me he had stopped accepting Paytm and was now back to 100 percent cash. The end of the cash squeeze also means the end of cashless transactions for many people.

What is the long term way to pressurize people towards cashless? I hope the Union Budget shows the way tomorrow.

This is my dream scenario. I don't know whether this is ever feasible.

RBI and Indian electronic industry comes up with a new kind of a very secured ATM that prints Rs 50 currencies on demand. It communicates with a central server through secured media ( 128 bit encryption and that good stuff) and gets the instructions from the central server everytime a customer requests currency. Once the central server authorizes, it retrieves the numbers to be assigned and prints the currency on demand.

So there is no question of central printing and shipping. The currency is printed on demand through RBI ATMs distributed across the country. The other ATMs will do BAU job of distributing currency already printed and in circulation. But these RBI ATMs placed strategcally in several bank premises across the country will print unlimited currency on demand. The people who maintain the ATM don't place notes in these machines but raw material required to print.

Now once this is in place, they will ban all Rs 100, Rs 500 and Rs 2000 notes. They should also make the Rs 50 much bigger and unwieldy to handle large bundles than what it is now. They can print as much as they want (probably add some fee). But it may take a suit case to have few lacs of rupees in Rs 50 denomination. Govt doesn't need to promote anything. People will start hating currency and everybody will switch to cashless transactions due to convenience. It will also make black money transactions that hard.

I hope this crazy dream is realized one day.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 10:51
by Pathik
kiranA wrote: I have been a source of pride to whoever surrounded me - whether parents, college or colleagues. You wont get more upright citizen than me.
:rotfl:

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 10:52
by Pathik
Pathik wrote:
kiranA wrote: I have been a source of pride to whoever surrounded me - whether parents, college or colleagues. You wont get more upright citizen than me.
:rotfl:
bradmins, have age restrictions been lifted? :D

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 10:59
by Marten
kiranA wrote:I havent lost a paisa due to demon. I havent broken a law anywhere. I dont have a dime in "black money". I did my engg in IIT and mba(major in finance) from very reputed institute. I have been a source of pride to whoever surrounded me - whether parents, college or colleagues. You wont get more upright citizen than me.

I dont recall any place where my personal integrity was questioned or slandered like here , an accomplished Indian, in a forum labelled "bharat rakshak".

I ignored initial taunts as I was naive enough to think that eventually you as moderator will involve on behalf of me as such personal slander is unfit for civilized debate. But I was wrong and I had enough harassment. I voluntarily withdraw from this thread until YOU apologize to me for disgracefully attempting to slander my personal integrity.
Since we are at it, I am a Professor at an IIT and teach courses across the world.
I haven't lost a single dime or rupee due to DeMo.

One of those statements is a lie, but thank you for withdrawing. If a few decades ago, someone else had done the same, we would not have had the pleasure of having your vast intellect and the upper-hand you hold in economics? or perhaps finance?.
Thank you all the same. Good riddance. Come back when you can use your B.Tech. and M.B.A. to fetch data to support your anal-e-cysts.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 11:15
by Zynda
Yesterday, I had to go to a diagnostic lab and I saw most of the transactions were carried out in Cash. I got to witness a sample size of around 10-12, in that, apart from me, only one other person paid by card. Some of the transactions were heavy...5K INR plus. All paid by cash onlee...

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 11:42
by Sachin
habal wrote:next week RBI will start accepting old notes once again, for limited time. Details are unclear whether old notes have to be submitted to your bank or direct to RBI. Further details are awaited.
Sir, where did you get this information from?? Is it from http://www.mathrubhumi.com by any chance? This news paper (started by freedom fighters of KL) is now in the hands of a political pimp, and the quality of the reports generally prove that. Checked with SHQ, she has not seen any new circular about old notes being accepted. At least in her branch, life is now back to 100% normal.
tandav wrote:So what is actually the total amount of demonetized money that have been deposited with the RBI after the the DEMO exercise?
The RBI and GoI has been very silent on this count, and to be honest that makes me suspicious. So far I have been pretty confident on how GoI has been handling issues after issues, quite efficiently. But when I see NaMo on TV these days, the body language does not look very positive. Let us see how the budget session goes on. I think the session starts from today, with the actual budget being tabled tomorrow.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 12:04
by TKiran
I havent lost a paisa due to demon. I havent broken a law anywhere. I dont have a dime in "black money". I did my engg in IIT and mba(major in finance) from very reputed institute. I have been a source of pride to whoever surrounded me - whether parents, college or colleagues. You wont get more upright citizen than me.

I dont recall any place where my personal integrity was questioned or slandered like here , an accomplished Indian, in a forum labelled "bharat rakshak".

I ignored initial taunts as I was naive enough to think that eventually you as moderator will involve on behalf of me as such personal slander is unfit for civilized debate. But I was wrong and I had enough harassment. I voluntarily withdraw from this thread until YOU apologize to me for disgracefully attempting to slander my personal integrity.

I feel sorry for you KiranA. I can understand your feelings as I was in your position a couple of months ago, when I said that demonetization is for getting rid of the FICN,

The people in this forum think that the demonetization is for eliminating Black Money.

My argument has been that, demonetization is a phenomenal success, all FICN has been eliminated.

But some of the stalwarts want to prove that black money has been eliminated, because of this demonetization. So any argument that says that the things are back to normal, will see huge resistance and uproar and personal abuse.

Onus is on those to provide data to prove that the cash component is more than 5% of the black assets, that eliminating cash would eliminate the black economy.

The black money is different beast altogether is not an argument acceptable to some of the stalwarts here.

But I don't agree with some of the arguments you have made that ordinary people suffered from this demonetization. Nobody suffered, including the chief secretary of Tamilnadu, as the money doesn't belong to him. He lost his job, but it is not a suffering, he will come out of the cases when things cool down. I can talk a more about the black money, how it works. It is the corruption in the private sector, which is more dangerous than government corruption, as at least we can blame the government employee of taking public money as salary, and shame them, but when a big corporate official demands bribes for giving you business, what will you do? Well I think I know a lot more about the black money, but sharing that gyan would require a lot of my time., but I will share whenever I could.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 12:18
by Suraj
Onus is on those to provide data to prove that the cash component is more than 5% of the black assets, that eliminating cash would eliminate the black economy.
That's so easy to prove. It's been proven multiple times and you just ignore it.

Lets say you are a BMer who owns a set of palatial homes and other property all obtained using black money. You have very little cash. Less than 5%, or whatever number you want to throw out. Doesn't matter what the number is - pick what you like.

Post demo, you have no cash and need liquidity. Tell us how you're going to sell into a market where:
a) there are no cash buyers with the volume of cash involved (remember all black money assets can only be transacted in cash)
b) sell to a white buyer and explain the purchase price to the tax man to pay capital gains, without any record, or a ridiculously lowballed white price for lowering property taxes.
c) GoI has Benami Act radar upon you
d) Once govt finds that you're sitting on a fat collection of properties, how you're going to avoid 50% penalty + 25% into PMGKY for 4-5 years.

You talk about assets and values. An assets that's not on the market has no notional value. An asset that cannot be sold or is hard to sell without penalty, has no relation to its mark-to-market value. In fact, every person holding a black asset, whether land, gold or forex, now has to deal with lack of a liquid black economy to sell into. Which means their valuations fall. When valuations fall, the proportion of cash to asset base rises, because the assets are worth less. People talk about 'black assets'. Excuse me, but an asset you cannot sell or transact without incriminating yourself and being subject to 50% minimum penalty, is in fact, a liability.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 13:01
by TKiran
Suraj wrote:
Onus is on those to provide data to prove that the cash component is more than 5% of the black assets, that eliminating cash would eliminate the black economy.
That's so easy to prove. It's been proven multiple times and you just ignore it.

Lets say you are a BMer who owns a set of palatial homes and other property all obtained using black money. You have very little cash. Less than 5%, or whatever number you want to throw out. Doesn't matter what the number is - pick what you like.

Post demo, you have no cash and need liquidity. Tell us how you're going to sell into a market where:
a) there are no cash buyers with the volume of cash involved (remember all black money assets can only be transacted in cash)
b) sell to a white buyer and explain the purchase price to the tax man to pay capital gains, without any record, or a ridiculously lowballed white price for lowering property taxes.
c) GoI has Benami Act radar upon you
d) Once govt finds that you're sitting on a fat collection of properties, how you're going to avoid 50% penalty + 25% into PMGKY for 4-5 years.

You talk about assets and values. An assets that's not on the market has no notional value. An asset that cannot be sold or is hard to sell without penalty, has no relation to its mark-to-market value. In fact, every person holding a black asset, whether land, gold or forex, now has to deal with lack of a liquid black economy to sell into. Which means their valuations fall. When valuations fall, the proportion of cash to asset base rises, because the assets are worth less. People talk about 'black assets'. Excuse me, but an asset you cannot sell or transact without incriminating yourself and being subject to 50% minimum penalty, is in fact, a liability.
Suraj San, a black money horder would not sell his assets till he sees that he is getting benefit out of such transaction. He will not sell it for cash. Do you know about quid pro quo? Vijay mallya is an example.

I will give you another example, there is an mla who purchased huge land with black money, the road didn't come there, he converted that land into Agricultural land and he really put a lot of effort to convert the baren land into Agricultural land. It took 5years, but now making a lot of money. It's all white money now. He got all the money back in the form of white money, and also lucky fella got big rocks, and started granite processing now, all white. He has got himself allotted with APIIC unit in Hyderabad, small one, but the rocks come from rayalaseema for free. The ways these people use are very innovative.

You might have heard about jagan, all his black money is through the quid pro quo's.

A man cannot fly to USA, that's against nature. At the maximum, he can run a few kilometers if he is fit, still it would take months together to reach USA, even if he is a good swimmer, but a person who can walk and sit in a aeroplane, can reach USA. The reason I have given this analogy is because you are thinking that a man cannot reach USA, because he is not fit, but in black money world, a man can fly. Their thinking is different.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 13:23
by Suraj
All your examples are pre-demonetization. I asked you what you'd do TODAY. There's no 'black money' in any significant volume backing up the black economic asset base. After all it' your very contention that black money itself was small to begin with, even before DeMo.

'Quid pro quo' (fancy latin for 'barter trade') does not transmit price effectively. Anyone who wants something for his property WILL pay less because he has no other negotiating base, and no liquid market to sell into. You always get the best price in a liquid market. Every quid pro quo deal occurs at a loss to the seller. More so today, because the seller knows he could be caught by IT, and therefore wants enough buffer in case he has to cough up 50% penalty on being caught.

This also means that quid pro quos absolutely do not eliminate future prosecution risk. More so now that GoI is applying the Benami Act in force. You can run, but you cannot hide. And while you're running, you're losing money on quid pro quo deals. Good luck :)

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 13:33
by asgkhan
Black money is not eliminated. In my construction travails, bribery rates have gone up 2x 3x because the AE/JE/Afsar had a loss due to demonitisation process. So we are back to square one.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 13:35
by asgkhan
Also the tax sleuths are the scummiest of the scum. They harass all taxpayers honest or not and threaten them with notices if they do not comply by paying them a %age of commission to close the file. Dad is still being harassed because the Income Tax goon has discretionary powers to arrive at number and put a fee on that transaction. keyword discretionary.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 14:04
by TKiran
Suraj sir, even after demonetization, the bribe takers are taking bribes in cash. Nothing has changed on the ground. In fact this demonetization has made these follows learn very good lessons which was there at the back of their mind for a long time, ie keep the financial information secret.

For example, you need to use benami s if your company is a private Ltd company, because a Pvt Ltd company is an entity on its own, and regularly you need to disclose the financial information to ministry of corporate affairs. For example vasan eye care, p chidambaram was caught with his cheddies down. But look at Tata sons, which is a partnership company, they have every right to keep the financial information secret, they just need to file the returns, and they are clear.

The corrupt people now opening huf accounts and keeping their assets in huf companies, nobody can question such companies. They don't even need to put benaamis in charge of their assets. It's all white. Ie every day you can covert black money into white.

Coming back to the basic question of "is this demonetization is to check the black money?" You will get the answer when you can justify remonetization.

It's all back to normal, believe me.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 14:35
by habal
Sachin wrote:
habal wrote:next week RBI will start accepting old notes once again, for limited time. Details are unclear whether old notes have to be submitted to your bank or direct to RBI. Further details are awaited.
Sir, where did you get this information from?? Is it from http://www.mathrubhumi.com by any chance? This news paper (started by freedom fighters of KL) is now in the hands of a political pimp, and the quality of the reports generally prove that. Checked with SHQ, she has not seen any new circular about old notes being accepted. At least in her branch, life is now back to 100% normal.
no sir, I got this info from banking circles when I expressed interest to exchange some old notes for a relative who had kept some old notes in a book and forgot. So I was informed by this banker that RBI was coming up with a scheme next week for exchanging small denominations for emergencies, so need need to worry. No circular has been issued yet only grapevine gossip. Confirmed again with a bank union leader who networks with RBI and another bank staff who regularly goes to RBI to collect currency. They were not bluffing me since I speak/interact with these folks daily. Since it is not any emergency, I am also waiting to see what will happen. No circular etc issued yet, so only wait & watch.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 15:03
by habal
Sachin wrote: But when I see NaMo on TV these days, the body language does not look very positive. Let us see how the budget session goes on. I think the session starts from today, with the actual budget being tabled tomorrow.
ok, last saw Mr. Modi on TV @ republic day. Got very negative feedback. He had body language of a person whi trusts none, not even Manohar Parikkar. There was palpable friction between him and parikkar. Usually during UPA, def min AKA used to sign at register and receive dignitaries including PM. The then PM used to stand behind DefMin. But this time it was all ulta. Modi signed, Modi received, Modi did salute at AJJ, Modi received Chief Guest, Modi waved off Chief Guest, Modi did a small walk around for crowd. All Modi show, no space for Parikkar or anyone else. During all this time, he was walking with glum face with very negative body language and fully intent on sidelining anyone who would come close to sharing his limelight. This guy doesn't like to share anything. All glory is mine alone, types.

Parikkar at times looked sideways at Modi, but Modi doesn't bat an eyelid. Felt sorry for Parikkar. Next day news came that he may go back to Goa.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 15:07
by Marten
habal wrote:
Sachin wrote: But when I see NaMo on TV these days, the body language does not look very positive. Let us see how the budget session goes on. I think the session starts from today, with the actual budget being tabled tomorrow.
ok, last saw Mr. Modi on TV @ republic day. Got very negative feedback. He had body language of a person whi trusts none, not even Manohar Parikkar. There was palpable friction between him and parikkar. Usually during UPA, def min AKA used to sign at register and receive dignitaries including PM. The then PM used to stand behind DefMin. But this time it was all ulta. Modi signed, Modi received, Modi did salute at AJJ, Modi received Chief Guest, Modi waved off Chief Guest, Modi did a small walk around for crowd. All Modi show, no space for Parikkar or anyone else. During all this time, he was walking with glum face with very negative body language and fully intent on sidelining anyone who would come close to sharing his limelight. This guy doesn't like to share anything. All glory is mine alone, types.

Parikkar at times looked sideways at Modi, but Modi doesn't bat an eyelid. Felt sorry for Parikkar. Next day news came that he may go back to Goa.
MP was anyways head back to Goa this year. The idea was for him to shore up Goa but if they lose there, it will be curtains for MP.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 18:13
by A_Gupta
asgkhan wrote:Black money is not eliminated. In my construction travails, bribery rates have gone up 2x 3x because the AE/JE/Afsar had a loss due to demonitisation process. So we are back to square one.
Or the risk is higher, so they need more money for the same corruption.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Posted: 31 Jan 2017 19:33
by rahulm
Last assembly elections, the Church in Goa instructed the flock to vote BJP ato give BJP a chance. The flock complied.

This year, the directive is different. Instructions are to vote for Congress just like old times. There is anger and disappointment In the Church and flock.

Even if LP wins from Mandrem, and there is a good chance he may not or may win by a slim margin, he is not expected to be CM if BJP wins. Grapevine and tea stall chatter is that he has treated people very badly and has become arrogant. Watch Naik.

Also, all infra contracts have gone to BJP chamchas.

The BJP camp while, putting up a brave face, are a bit concerned. There have been significant defections at panchayat level from BJP to Congress.

I personally feel MP will not return to Goa. But who knows. Forecasting polls makes economists look good and that's saying something. My samples are limited to North Goa.