Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Posted: 31 Jan 2017 20:03
Looks like real estate is in for more beating in blr with the h1b restrictions.
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raj-senthil wrote:Gurus..Need some help on a situation that my friend is facing..
He is in Land of Honey & Milk for past few years..He locked up close to 2L in 500 and 2000 in his home and no one back there to help him. He is wondering how to exchange/deposit his money.. Now he is cribbing his 2L became paper and more than that it became illegal. He may be going back somewhere in April..He wants to know if there is any way he can deposit his money..
I can help. Promise to help take away his fear of losing two Lacs.raj-senthil wrote:Gurus..Need some help on a situation that my friend is facing..
He is in Land of Honey & Milk for past few years..He locked up close to 2L in 500 and 2000 in his home and no one back there to help him. He is wondering how to exchange/deposit his money.. Now he is cribbing his 2L became paper and more than that it became illegal. He may be going back somewhere in April..He wants to know if there is any way he can deposit his money..
That's not how a partnership company works. When GoI asks about a property, you don't simply say it was transferred into your LP and therefore 'can keep it secret'. Because you'll have a paper trail of it going into your partnership. No company structure, PuLC, PrLC, LP anything, lets you use it openly as a tax dodge. That sort of claim implies the government literally has in place a set of structures that directly contradict its tax collection imperative. That does not exist. Government's first imperative is collecting money.TKiran wrote:Suraj sir, even after demonetization, the bribe takers are taking bribes in cash. Nothing has changed on the ground. In fact this demonetization has made these follows learn very good lessons which was there at the back of their mind for a long time, ie keep the financial information secret.
For example, you need to use benami s if your company is a private Ltd company, because a Pvt Ltd company is an entity on its own, and regularly you need to disclose the financial information to ministry of corporate affairs. For example vasan eye care, p chidambaram was caught with his cheddies down. But look at Tata sons, which is a partnership company, they have every right to keep the financial information secret, they just need to file the returns, and they are clear.
I agree that government won't find everything. But that's because lots of people are crooks. Crooks who morally grandstand about why they're doing the world a favor with their behavior, lacking the guts to simply state that they're committing a crime because they don't like the law and therefore will accept whatever punishment it brings.TKiran wrote:The corrupt people now opening huf accounts and keeping their assets in huf companies, nobody can question such companies. They don't even need to put benaamis in charge of their assets. It's all white. Ie every day you can covert black money into white.
No sorry. "Bribery is still going on so it's back to normal" is just personal cynicism. In reality, data shows there's not even half as much cash in circulation anymore. Claiming 'I see everyone's back to using cash' is not a contrarian position. That's simply proof that the cash disbursal and daily liquidity concerns are gone.TKiran wrote:It's all back to normal, believe me.
This is just the first phase, as explained above.Under the demonetisation drive, seven million PAN (permanent account number) card holders deposited high-denomination currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000, of which 1.8 million persons’ cash deposits are not matching with their tax profile, according to the income tax (I-T) department. These deposits aggregated to Rs 4.17 lakh crore, a senior tax official told Business Standard.
Most of these 1.8 million persons have deposited over Rs 5 lakh during the period of exchanging old notes and identified to be suspicious. The tax department has sought explanation from them within 10 days to avoid tax notices.
“We have compared a large amount of data with the income profile, turnover and various other particulars of income available in the I-T data bank. In the first phase where the deposits in accounts are not matching with our data, we are putting them on our e-filing portal, seeking explanation of source of income,” the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) chairman Sushil Chandra said in a press conference.
This has come when the CBDT on Tuesday launched Operation Clean Money project, which enables data analysis and profiling of assessees. The project would help in sending e-mails/texts to people whose cash deposits after the November 8 note ban do not match their income. E-mail and texts will also be sent to the taxpayers for submitting online response on the e-filing portal, the CBDT said in its press release.
UlanBatori wrote:I thought the exchange provision extends up to June? I mean with proper certification at port of entry and RBI deposit. My guess is that PMO will decide to create some vent for these problems involving Embassies/Consulates, but not sure. The idea that you have to travel to India at a cost of 2L to deposit 10K is rather, well, baboon-cratic. At some point the idiocy will occur to the GOI, maybe through a couple of lawsuits.
For small baksheesh of 10% I will be glad to write a letter recommending that the Indian Ambassador in Ulan Bator take up his case.He wants to know if there is any way he can deposit his money..
What govt has to do is to accelerate the investigation for few solid cases and make examples out of them for rest of the people. If they can send massage to BM hoarders that it is not just Rs 4.17 lac crores that is at stake but everything else that demonetization didn't touch, such as benami real estate etc. That should trigger panic and start beeline to declare BM money before March 31st and pay 50% tax and 25% no interest deposit for 4 years.Suraj wrote:Talking about GoI being serious, here's 'just' about a quarter of the DeMo money already under the scanner - about $65 billion at stake.
I-T lens on deposits of Rs 4.17 lakh crore by 1.8 mn personsThis is just the first phase, as explained above.Under the demonetisation drive, seven million PAN (permanent account number) card holders deposited high-denomination currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000, of which 1.8 million persons’ cash deposits are not matching with their tax profile, according to the income tax (I-T) department. These deposits aggregated to Rs 4.17 lakh crore, a senior tax official told Business Standard.
Most of these 1.8 million persons have deposited over Rs 5 lakh during the period of exchanging old notes and identified to be suspicious. The tax department has sought explanation from them within 10 days to avoid tax notices.
“We have compared a large amount of data with the income profile, turnover and various other particulars of income available in the I-T data bank. In the first phase where the deposits in accounts are not matching with our data, we are putting them on our e-filing portal, seeking explanation of source of income,” the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) chairman Sushil Chandra said in a press conference.
This has come when the CBDT on Tuesday launched Operation Clean Money project, which enables data analysis and profiling of assessees. The project would help in sending e-mails/texts to people whose cash deposits after the November 8 note ban do not match their income. E-mail and texts will also be sent to the taxpayers for submitting online response on the e-filing portal, the CBDT said in its press release.
jamwal wrote:
Am I happy about it ? Yes. Some businesses like mine did need a moderate kick in ass to get in line. Some need much more.
What do I think of shameless chors whining like you are ? Screw them. Happy to see them crying.
Does it make me a scoundrel pretending to be a patriot ? If yes, screw you. If no, screw you even then.
This is the point - now he might be a criminal when he travels to India with illegal money!! I do not know what the answer or the solution to this is, but seeing the responses to your query here makes me puke. One guy above calling Indians as "Most people are crooks.." Probably has no clue why I am quoting him.raj-senthil wrote:Gurus..Need some help on a situation that my friend is facing..
He is in Land of Honey & Milk for past few years..He locked up close to 2L in 500 and 2000 in his home and no one back there to help him. He is wondering how to exchange/deposit his money.. Now he is cribbing his 2L became paper and more than that it became illegal. He may be going back somewhere in April..He wants to know if there is any way he can deposit his money..
CBDT chairman Sushil Chandra said the Tax Department has data that show over one crore bank accounts with deposits of above Rs 2 lakh and involves 70 lakh permanent account numbers (PAN). While the online platform, which is part of 'Operation Clean Money', will ask the identified taxpayers to fill in the details of their cash deposits, including money received from others, the sources suggested that the department was bracing for a duel in case it felt that the responses were not satisfactory. " The department has accessed a lot of data but the message is clear that only when there is strong evidence should we go after someone. If the accounts look okay then the taxpayer will be given the benefit of doubt," said a source.
Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst
MUMBAI: The amount of potential black money in the system could be Rs 3 lakh crore or Rs 7.3 lakh crore, says the Economic Survey.
To estimate amount of black money, the Survey has used assumptions of soil rates - rate at which notes are considered to be too damaged to use and have been returned to the central bank - of other countries.
..............
Low denomination notes have highest soil rate. As per RBI data, low denomination notes have a soil rate of 33 percent per year, Rs 500 note 22 percent, and the Rs 1000 just 11 percent.
Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst
An idea was always there in my mind, but did not bother penning it down. Can GoI or the various IT departments use an approach ofrahulm wrote:The NaMo modus operandi is to use interstate bureaucracy to investigate and unearth fraud during DEMON. So a bureaucrat from, say Goa, can be sent to MP to spear head the investigation.
Did you actually read the posts?venkat_r wrote:raj-senthil wrote: This is the point - now he might be a criminal when he travels to India with illegal money!!.........
One big question is - will a person be comfortable taking that 2 L in cash to India? Most people are not sure and scared which is why it makes me uncomfortable with this program from GOI.
How then with the GOI prevent people who they want to protect form being identified ? I do believe the GOI will selectively let some people go scot free. It would be naive to think the BJP has only doodh ke dhule in its ranks.An idea was always there in my mind, but did not bother penning it down. Can GoI or the various IT departments use an approach of .............
That's what posters like Habal & etc do - just post unsubstantiated info & allegations like the one Habal did a few days before i.e the primary reason for DeMo was for BJP to win the UP elections. WTH - what level of stupidity in such a line of thinking. So many BJP leaders have been hit by the DeMo (some in TN, MH have been caught .. as much info i could glean ... from the very minimal amount of reading of newspapers that i do these days because of the level of prestitution visible across all media businesses these days). Many BJP leaders on the ground will get hit by the Anti-Benami Property Transactions too. But i don't want to waste my time here - posting those media articles and police statements .. just to disprove Habal-isque type posts. I like Modi for what he is doing and if somebody does more than what Modi is doing & does it in a consistent manner ... i will comparitively like him/her more than how much i like Modi. But as of now i ignore Habalisque posts .... after all every god whether Krishna or Shiva or Rama .. was misunderstood & were even wrongly accused by so many people of their time too (not comparing Modi to god here).Supratik wrote:Again you are making allegations without proof. Wait for mischief from BJP before jumping the gun. Per twitter many BJP leaders have lost money. It is Modi and his team and not BJP who is running the show.
The most BJP could have done is tell its people in no uncertain times to declare all their income during VIDS.rahulm wrote:How then with the GOI prevent people who they want to protect form being identified ? I do believe the GOI will selectively let some people go scot free. It would be naive to think the BJP has only doodh ke dhule in its ranks.An idea was always there in my mind, but did not bother penning it down. Can GoI or the various IT departments use an approach of .............
Budget 2017 gives clues about demonetisation deposits in banks
About Rs10.38 lakh crore in demonetised currency was deposited in 2.57 lakh bank accounts, showing that a large chunk of the amount came from the super-rich
Roshan Kishore
Thu, Feb 02 2017.
The figures as disclosed in Union Budget 2017 also tell us that 31% of total value of demonetised currency has come back in individual deposits of Rs80 lakh or more.
The figures as disclosed in Union Budget 2017 also tell us that 31% of total value of demonetised currency has come back in individual deposits of Rs80 lakh or more.
New Delhi: One of the biggest expectations with Union Budget 2017 was that the government would divulge details of how much money has come back to the banking system after demonetisation. While the budget has disappointed in terms of giving overall statistics on this count, it does give an idea about the extent of money which has come in deposits of Rs2 lakh and above.
This is what Arun Jaitley had to say in his budget speech: “After the demonetisation, the preliminary analysis of data received in respect of deposits made by people in old currency presents a revealing picture. During the period 8th November to 30th December 2016, deposits between Rs2 lakh and Rs80 lakh were made in about 1.09 crore accounts with an average deposit size of Rs5.03 lakh. Deposits of more than 80 lakh were made in 1.48 lakh accounts with average deposit size of Rs3.31 crores.”
Union Budget 2017: Key highlights and themes
The total amount which has been deposited under these two categories can be calculated by multiplying the number of accounts with the average deposit figures mentioned by Jaitley. This gives a figure of Rs5.48 lakh crores for deposits worth less than Rs80 lakh and Rs4.89 lakh crore for more than Rs80 lakh. The aggregate deposits under the two categories amount to Rs10.38 lakh crore. This works out to around two-third of the total value of demonetised currency, which was valued at around 15.44 lakh crore. These figures also tell us that around 31% of total value of demonetised currency has come back in individual deposits of Rs80 lakh or more. These figures show that a large chunk of the demonetised currency which has come back into banks is from the super-rich.
How much of the deposits reflect unearthed black money?
According to Jaitley, there are more than 3 lakh companies which show profits. There are 76 lakh individuals who report annual income greater than Rs5 lakh. Out of this 56 lakh individuals belong to the salaried class, which means that their avenues for tax evasion are extremely limited. The rest 20 lakh individuals include businessmen and professionals.
It is possible that several of the high-deposit accounts belong to those who are already in the tax net, and have legitimate reasons for holding on to cash. The finance minister has not said anything about whether these are individual or business accounts. In the latter category, a lot of cash could be classified as cash in hand for business purposes, and it would be difficult to say whether these deposits reflect unearthed black money.
However these numbers point to one unequivocal conclusion: most of the super-rich did not flush their cash stocks down the pit. Instead, they have chosen to park their money with banks, fully aware that this might invite scrutiny from taxmen. It is therefore likely that they will have good answers ready if and when the taxmen come to ask questions.
There is very little reason to hope that the post-demonetisation data mining exercise will help unearth a significant amount of black money. This should not come as a surprise to those who have taken even a cursory look at the findings of taxmen on black money, who have reported in the past that cash is the least preferred way of holding unaccounted money.
venkat_r wrote:jamwal wrote:
Am I happy about it ? Yes. Some businesses like mine did need a moderate kick in ass to get in line. Some need much more.
What do I think of shameless chors whining like you are ? Screw them. Happy to see them crying.
Does it make me a scoundrel pretending to be a patriot ? If yes, screw you. If no, screw you even then.![]()
- this is the attitude to defend a shitty program ? Wonderful !!
chetak wrote:Budget 2017 gives clues about demonetisation deposits in banks
Budget 2017 gives clues about demonetisation deposits in banks
About Rs10.38 lakh crore in demonetised currency was deposited in 2.57 lakh bank accounts, showing that a large chunk of the amount came from the super-rich
Of the total deposited money, Rs.10.38 lakh crore was deposited into just 2.57 lakh accounts. That's an average 4+ crore per deposit. Of course in reality there's a lot of skew but it doesn't hurt the thought process to assume everyone's depositing that much.Suraj wrote:Another piece of information, regarding the anger about few tax sops above 10L (or other brackets). Here's a breakdown of assessee count and returned income:
The 2-5L bracket constitutes 35% of taxpayers, but only 8.5% of revenue. GoI expect to make it up from the highest tax slabs. The other major middle class brackets: 5-10L constitutes <10% of assesses, and 10L-1CR are <5% of assessees, but the latter i particular accounts for almost half of taxes.
Now type of IT paid:
Among individuals, salary constitutes over half of declared income. Most of the rest comes from business income. LTCG/STCG are practically negligible, as are house/property income. This is unlike the US or other major developed economies where the income of the wealthy, who pay most of the income taxes, comes mostly from business income + capital gains. Here's US IT breakdown.
As the data above shows, it's not even the case that 'only 30 million people in India pay income tax'. In fact, that's the number of people filing returns. Out of that, half pay taxes. 50% of income tax is paid by the 13 lakh people with declared incomes of Rs.10L to 1CR . Another 16% is paid by the 33K people with incomes of 1-5CR, and only 2700 people clain incomes above 5CR. Do any of these numbers sound realistic ? Until more undeclared income is unearthed by DeMo and the >1CR brackets gain many more members - remember IT just sent notices to 18 lakh people for undeclared deposits of 4.17 lakh crore - GoI doesn't have a lot of hands to play. I hope DeMo changes the tax brackets to such an extent that they can easily provide a significant tax benefit to the upto 10L brackets.
Source: Making tax data public will facilitate policymaking and administration
I can understand digitally certified. What do you mean by negotiable instruments? Asset backed account guaranteeing payment?SaiK wrote:The easiest and cheapest way to cashless economy is ensuring that your cheque/check book is digitally certified and valid negotiable instruments. Ask me for solution for guaranteed payments.
Many of them would be business accounts, perhaps. Of course, why would businesses carry so much cash unless it was black?Suraj wrote: Of the total deposited money, Rs.10.38 lakh crore was deposited into just 2.57 lakh accounts. That's an average 4+ crore per deposit. Of course in reality there's a lot of skew but it doesn't hurt the thought process to assume everyone's depositing that much.
The previously quoted data shows that 33K assessees reported >1Cr income, with a total assessed income of 2.6 lakh crore, for an average 7.8 crore in income. However, the DeMo deposit data shows that there are quarter of a million people with an average 4Cr in liquid wealth. IT assessment data shows 36K people with assessed income over Rs.1Cr . Those 2.57 lakh people will largely have incomes in the 1Cr range, since it takes years, if not decades, decades to accumulate an average 4Cr in liquid cash, indicating even more in more illiquid assets.
Interesting times ahead.
Madarassa math in that article.Suraj wrote:xposting from economy thread: Here's some data that shows just how badly misused the taxation setup is:
Of the total deposited money, Rs.10.38 lakh crore was deposited into just 2.57 lakh accounts. That's an average 4+ crore per deposit. Of course in reality there's a lot of skew but it doesn't hurt the thought process to assume everyone's depositing that much.Suraj wrote:Another piece of information, regarding the anger about few tax sops above 10L (or other brackets). Here's a breakdown of assessee count and returned income:
The 2-5L bracket constitutes 35% of taxpayers, but only 8.5% of revenue. GoI expect to make it up from the highest tax slabs. The other major middle class brackets: 5-10L constitutes <10% of assesses, and 10L-1CR are <5% of assessees, but the latter i particular accounts for almost half of taxes.
Now type of IT paid:
Among individuals, salary constitutes over half of declared income. Most of the rest comes from business income. LTCG/STCG are practically negligible, as are house/property income. This is unlike the US or other major developed economies where the income of the wealthy, who pay most of the income taxes, comes mostly from business income + capital gains. Here's US IT breakdown.
As the data above shows, it's not even the case that 'only 30 million people in India pay income tax'. In fact, that's the number of people filing returns. Out of that, half pay taxes. 50% of income tax is paid by the 13 lakh people with declared incomes of Rs.10L to 1CR . Another 16% is paid by the 33K people with incomes of 1-5CR, and only 2700 people clain incomes above 5CR. Do any of these numbers sound realistic ? Until more undeclared income is unearthed by DeMo and the >1CR brackets gain many more members - remember IT just sent notices to 18 lakh people for undeclared deposits of 4.17 lakh crore - GoI doesn't have a lot of hands to play. I hope DeMo changes the tax brackets to such an extent that they can easily provide a significant tax benefit to the upto 10L brackets.
Source: Making tax data public will facilitate policymaking and administration
The previously quoted data shows that 33K assessees reported >1Cr income, with a total assessed income of 2.6 lakh crore, for an average 7.8 crore in income. However, the DeMo deposit data shows that there are quarter of a million people with an average 4Cr in liquid wealth. IT assessment data shows 36K people with assessed income over Rs.1Cr . Those 2.57 lakh people will largely have incomes in the 1Cr range, since it takes years, if not decades, decades to accumulate an average 4Cr in liquid cash, indicating even more in more illiquid assets.
Interesting times ahead.
just think how you can use your cheques as cash... how will you bring in technology to make it negotiable, as it is an instrument now that is not trusted by public much. They use DD.vijayk wrote:I can understand digitally certified. What do you mean by negotiable instruments? Asset backed account guaranteeing payment?SaiK wrote:The easiest and cheapest way to cashless economy is ensuring that your cheque/check book is digitally certified and valid negotiable instruments. Ask me for solution for guaranteed payments.
This has been mentioned on this very thread before.nandakumar wrote:Cheques are negotiable instruments. ................. But if there is some mechanism by which the bank promises that equivalent value as mentioned in the cheque has been frozen from the account of the issuer and hence the person accepting it in exchange for sale of some good or service is not exposed to the risk of default..............