krithivas wrote:Though a regime change in Iran would have been far more preferrable.
R. Krithivas
arunsrinivasan wrote:I think this is great news, if US & Russia build better relations, it will reduce TSP's leverage, hopefully stop from Russia from getting too close to China.Ekjaktlee!
Not for the sake of transit. Iran in its current constellation leaves the transit route with permissions exclusively for India. US/NATO/ISAF do not get to share it. On the one hand, India can boast of a secure route into Central Asia, while on the other hand Iran would want this route to get strategic value through active use, and would want India to keep using it.
Secondly this allows the USA to rethink its relationship with Russia. Any US presence in Central Asia, which occurs without Russian approval usually forces the Russians into a defensive mode, because of which they run into the eager arms of PRC. Secondly any US dependence on Russia also precludes too much US support to countries like Georgia, Ukraine, etc viz-a-viz Russia. Russia does not like NATO encroachment into its near abroad. Any encroachment pressure again forces the Russians to run to PRC to strengthen SCO as a counterweight to NATO. Caucasus and Central Asia remain Russia's soft belly, and Russia is wary of US intentions there. All of this G2 Talk would also put off Russia against bolstering China's prestige too much at the international level. So NATO dependence on Russia is a very good thing in the large scheme of things.
First and foremost, NATO-Russia cooperation on transit addresses West's over-dependence on Pakistan as a transit route.
USA is also very eager to see a stabilization of Afghanistan, so that it can take much of its troops home. Earlier the USA hoped for Pakistan's cooperation to curtail the activities of Afghan Taliban. As USA saw, that no such cooperation was forthcoming and that Pakistan was playing a double-game, it came up with the next-best strategy to relieve pressure from US troops in Afghanistan. Push the Taliban fighters to a different war theater, where the US troops are not the first in the line of fire. For that reason, the recent fighting between Pakistani troops and Taliban is a major development. The recent years of Taliban expansion into Pakistan has given the impression first and foremost to the Taliban and its Islamist allies like Al Qaida, as well as to Pakjabi Jihadists, LeJ, JeM etc that Pakistan is indeed a low hanging fruit, and can be picked. It is worth trying. As such many of the Taliban could be diverted into Pakistan itself, or encourage the Pakistan Taliban to do their hunting at home, rather than in Afghanistan.
Now the USA or the world, cannot allow those of Taliban ilk to take over Pakistan completely. India too would not like that. For a reason of factors, mostly financial, the US has been able to persuade Pakistan to go to war with their former allies and offspring, the Taliban. Pakistani Army's usefulness to USA and credibility was also on the line. More importantly the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal was on the line. Any dithering in pushing back the Taliban could have meant that the US would have moved in to secure this arsenal. All those rumors of India-US cooperation in recovering Pakistan's nukes proved to be a successful psy-ops, and made the Generals jittery.
The war with Pakistan gives the Taliban another reason to shift its fighting power to Pakistan and decrease the pressure on America in Afghanistan. Revenge against an apostate and whore Army of Pakistan becomes a strong motivation even for the Afghan Taliban to come and fight in Pakistan, relieving even more pressure in Afghanistan.
The shift of policy by Hafiz Gul Bahadur and Maulvi Nazir are important developments in this regard. The more fighting that takes place between Pakistani troops and these two gentlemen in Waziristan, the deeper will be the gulf and the longer will this war continue, in the longer term formalizing an irreconcilable split between a mostly Pakjabi Army and the Pushtun Islamists. Any lull in the fighting only allows Bailtullah Mehsud to regroup and consolidate his position, which the Pakistani Army also cannot allow. So the fighting has to go on. Besides USA is holding a close watch on whether Pakistan does proceed to shut down the Taliban, which had been giving USA a hard time in Afghanistan also. Big money is on the line for many a Pakistani General.
2.5 million IDPs build up another possible pressure point for Pakistan. Many new Taliban recruits will find their into Taliban ranks from these IDP camps, bolstering Taliban numbers.
Following factors are important to shift the Taliban insurgency southwards, namely:
o A perception of low hanging fruit
o Revenge for killing of Taliban
o A loss of Islamic credentials of the Pakistani Army through its whoring for the US
o continuing military operations and fighting in FATA, Swat, etc.
o Wide-spread disenchantment with the Pakistani Army for causing wide-spread 'collateral' damage, aka IDPs.
o Steady supply of weapons to the Pakiban, from weapon-producing SMEs in Pushtun lands, Wah-thefts, earlier Afghan wars, open world markets, through Karachi, etc.
o Steady flow of cash to the Taliban, from the Gulf, drugs, extortion, bank robberies, illegal mining, timber, etc.
On the whole both NATO-Russia transit accord and the fighting in Pakistan will relieve USA of its over-dependence on Pakistan. Right now we are seeing a peak in the US-Pak dependence graph with a subsequent fall. There is a bit of optimism invested in this outlook, but not overly so.
