Bharat Rakshak

Sanjay M wrote:The fact is that any nuclear test in any location can be measured by seismic monitors around the world, and its yield deduced to reasonably accurate approximation. If you really want to be secretive, have the NoKoreans make it an undersea test. That'll limit the data the ChiComs can get out of it.

It doesn't matter if the South Koreans and Japanese were ticked off - their international clout is a drop in the bucket, compared to those who'd be upset over an Iranian nuclear test.
Plus the economies of SKorea and Japan are export-dependent, and they simply can't afford to cut themselves off from our market. They're all hoping to sell their small cars here.
KSA has more economic power projection against us than SKorea does.

Sanjay M wrote:The NKoreans are in a much more precarious position, and wouldn't be as likely to muck around with us, when they need a liferope.
China can't make Kim's regime fall - whether in a day or a month - not when the issue of succession is very thorny and sensitive. The last thing China would want is to see its NKorean buffer state collapse prematurely before its time, thus potentially bringing US troops upto the Chinese border.

Sanjay M wrote:Sorry, but everything there is kept in very tight balance, which can't just be thrown away on a moment's notice, because of the heavy investment in keeping that balance.

Sanjay M wrote:The US has more options against Iran than against NKorea. There are more international backers for military action against Iran than against North Korea.
The US could pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan in a pinch, to free up the possibility of military strikes on Iran. But the US can't pull out of Japan and SKorea. That's a non-starter. The Americans there are like Atlas holding up the sky - if somebody tickles their arm-pits, they don't have a free hand to throw a punch back.

Sanjay M wrote:Besides, the Iranians sit astride the oil jugular, and if any problems grow in their region, we'll only feel the fallout at the gas pump. The same can't be said of North Asia.

TEHRAN: Several senior officers in Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards Corps were killed in an attack early on Sunday in the south-eastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan, Fars news agency reported.

"In this terrorist act, General Nur-Ali Shushtari, deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards land army, General Mohammad-Zadeh, commander of the Revolutionary Guards in Sistan-Baluchestan province, the Guards' commander for the town of Iranshahr and the commander of the Amir al-Momenin unit died," the news agency reported.

shyamd wrote:Yes. He has been ill for many years now. The western intel has been working over time to find a suitable successor. I posted some stuff about it in the Middle East thread. His son is one of the name that has been mentioned.

Tamang wrote:Iran military officers killed in terror attack

TEHRAN: Several senior officers in Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards Corps were killed in an attack early on Sunday in the south-eastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan, Fars news agency reported. .....................

Page last updated at 01:13 GMT, Monday, 19 October 2009 02:13 UK

Iran accuses Pakistan over attack

Iran's president has accused Pakistani agents of involvement in a suicide bombing in south-east Iran targeting a group of elite Revolutionary Guards.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on Pakistan to apprehend the attackers, whom Iranian officials suggested had arrived from Pakistan.

At least 35 people died in the attack, in south-eastern Sistan-Baluchistan. .........................

Mr Ahmadinejad pointed towards Pakistan.

"We were informed that some security agents in Pakistan are co-operating with the main elements of this terrorist incident," he was quoted as saying by the semi-official Fars news agency.

"We regard it as our right to demand these criminals from them," he said, without elaborating.

"We ask the Pakistani government not to delay any longer in the apprehension of the main elements in this terrorist attack."

Iranian authorities summoned a senior Pakistani diplomat in Tehran, claiming that the assailants had arrived in Iran from Pakistan, Iranian state media reported.

The Iranian foreign ministry also "protested against the use of Pakistani territory by the terrorists and rebels against the Islamic Republic of Iran," the Isna news agency reported. .........................

BBC

Iran vows revenge after claiming bomb attack was carried out by Britain
A bomb attack on Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard that killed over 40 people including top generals was carried out by terrorists trained by America and Britain in nearby Pakistan, a senior commander said on Monday.

By Richard Spencer in Dubai
Published: 9:15AM BST 19 Oct 2009

Iranian medical personnel bring an injured person to a medical facility in the Pishin district in Iran Photo: AP
"The terrorists were trained in the neighbouring country by the Americans and British," General Mohammad Pakpour, head of the Guard's ground forces, told state television. "The enemies of the Islamic Republic of Iran are unable to tolerate the unity in the country."

Gen Pakpour, whose deputy Gen Nour Ali Shoushtari was the most senior officer killed in the attack, said there would be retribution.

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Three hanged for mosque bombing in Iran"The Guards will give a very harsh and crushing response to this group, so the group will never be able to launch another act like this in the country," he said.

The Islamic regime in Iran regularly blames all opposition on America and Britain, but there have been claims outside the country for a number of years that the Bush administration provided funding to Jundullah, the militant group which claimed responsibility for the attack on Sunday.

A suicide bomber detonated explosives at a sports hall in Sistani-Baluchistan province, near the Pakistan border, where the Guard officers were meeting tribal leaders, purportedly to promote ethnic unity.

State television said today that at least 42 people died, including ten local tribal leaders and at least five senior Guard officers, and dozens were wounded. The injured were flown to the nearest hospitals more than 120 miles away.

The meeting was said to be intended to win support against terrorism from the local Baluchi, Sunni Muslim minority, which Jundullah claims to represent. But the region is also a base for drugs and smuggling, banditry and kidnapping.

Its closeness to both Pakistan and Afghanistan makes it a particularly sensitive area. Iran, Pakistan and its American backers all accuse each other of sponsoring terrorism across the Middle East and in Afghanistan in pursuit of their strategic goals.

Gen Shoushtari as well as being deputy head of its ground forces was also senior in its al-Quds, or Jerusalem, Brigade. The brigade is the force's special unit to oversee Iran's foreign ventures and thus at the heart of what Washington says is Iran's terror-supporting activities.

Pakistani and Iranian relations have improved in recent years, but Iran claims that while the United States, and possibly Saudi Arabia, may have funded Jundullah, as they did with the Mujahidin in Afghanistan, the Pakistanis, or elements in its military, provide the logistics.

On Sunday night, a senior Pakistani diplomat in Tehran was summoned and informed Iran had evidence the attacker came over the border. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed security agents in Pakistan were co-operating with the group.

Pakistan's government condemned the attack, and its foreign ministry denied being involved in terrorist activities. "We are striving to eradicate this menace," a spokesman said.

The Pakistani military are themselves involved in an all-out offensive against the Taliban in South Waziristan.

The United States also denied being involved in the attack, which the state department said it condemned. The Foreign Office also condemned the bombing.

The attack threatened to overshadow a resumption of talks today on Iran's nuclear programme.

A spokesman for the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency denied that the negotiations with Russia, the United States and France would lead to an end to the country's uranium enrichment programme.

"Buying nuclear fuel from abroad does not mean Iran will stop its uranium enrichment activities inside the country," a spokesman said.

The talks aim to cement a deal whereby enrichment to 20 per cent, the level needed to run nuclear power reactors, would be carried out abroad in return for guarantees Iran would not attempt further enrichment to the much higher levels needed for nuclear weapons.

The head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards today vowed to take revenge against Britain and the United States whom he claims backed the group that killed six commanders.

Mohammad Ali Jafari, the Guards commander-in-chief, said that he had seen documents indicating direct ties between Jundollah, which carried out yesterday's suicide bombing in southern Iran, and the US, British and "unfortunately" the Pakistani intelligence organisations. The explosion killed 42 people.

shyamd wrote:Iran is taking the issue very seriously. Watch, Iranians will get a few ISI guys being bumped off and a massive IED Mubarak in NWFP government installation, just like the last time there was a Jundullah attack in Iran.

arun wrote:
TEHRAN: Several senior officers in Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards Corps were killed in an attack early on Sunday in the south-eastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan, Fars news agency reported. .....................

X Posted.

The Islamic Republic of Iran accuses the Islamic Republic of Pakistan of involvement in the above sucide bombing :



BBC

According to sources, Iranian authorities suddenly informed the Taftan administration and Pakistani border officials that they had brought the bodies.
‘A letter was handed over to Pakistani border authorities with the bodies,’ the sources said.
However, Pakistani border officials expressed doubt about the claim of Iranian authorities.

A police officer in Taftan, Abid Khan, said the cause of deaths appeared to be torture. ‘I am sure they were not killed in a bomb blast.’

He said blood was oozing from the ears and noses of two bodies. Although only medical examination would determine the cause of death, they appeared to have been tortured, he said.
The bodies were received by an official of the Taftan administration, Syed Zahid Shah. He said four of the men hailed from Yaro, in Pishin district, and from Nawan Killi, near Quetta.

President Obama’s policy of diplomatic engagement with Iran is close to collapse as Tehran backtracks on a crucial deal aimed at cutting its stockpiles of nuclear fuel.

Iran agreed a deal “in principle” at talks in Geneva to ship the majority of its low-enriched uranium overseas for reprocessing into nuclear fuel that could be used for a medical research reactor.

A deal outlining this was finalised in Vienna this week and a deadline of midnight tonight was set for the agreement to be sealed with Tehran.

The framework deal, along with an offer to allow international inspectors into its newly-revealed enrichment plant at Qom, was hailed as evidence that Iran was responding positively to the diplomatic track.

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Today, however, with just hours until the deadline, Iran has turned the table on its foreign interlocutors with a rival proposal, demanding that it be allowed to buy higher enriched uranium directly from abroad.

Later, the Islamic Republic issued a statement saying that it would report to Mohammed El Baradei, the UN's atomic watchdog, next week.

"Iran is precisely examining different dimensions of the contents of the proposed agreement about the provisional supply of fuel for the Tehran research reactor,” Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s envoy to the UN atomic watchdog, was quoted as saying on state television’s website.

“After final evaluation, I will give the result to Mr. ElBaradei when I return to Vienna next week."

Tehran’s proposals fall far short of the deal drawn up in Vienna by the United Nations atomic watchdog and endorsed by the UN, the US, Russia and France. It would not only fail to reduce Iran’s stockpile of low enriched uranium — now large enough to fuel one nuclear warhead — but it would also require the waiver of pre-existing UN sanctions.

The counter-proposal was outlined on Iranian state television today as the clock ticked down to the midnight deadline. “The Islamic Republic of Iran is waiting for a constructive and confidence-building response to the clear proposal of buying fuel for the Tehran research reactor,” state television quoted an unnamed source close to Iran’s negotiating team as saying.

Western diplomats have warned that Tehran’s failure to agree to the deal could jeopardise talks in Geneva next week between Iran and the E3 plus 3 — the US, Russia, China, France, Germany and Britain — and open the door to a new regime of punishing sanctions.

Bernard Kouchner, the French Foreign Minister, said during a visit to Lebanon today that “via the indications we are receiving, matters are not very positive”. He added: “If these indications remain negative . . . this will reflect negatively on the continuation of the political contacts . . . in Geneva.”

Russia and China’s reluctance to consider new sanctions is forcing Washington to seek a coalition of willing allies to impose their own economic blockade on Iran if efforts to get UN sanctions fail.

Tehran’s latest move comes straight from a well-thumbed Iranian playbook and looks like yet another stalling tactic to test the West’s resolve and buy time to avert new sanctions. But Western patience is growing thinner by the day, with diplomats warning that the apparent breakthrough in Geneva on October 1 may be less positive than it first seemed.

Anxiety is now growing about what will happen on Sunday when inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) arrive in Iran to inspect the long-hidden nuclear plant at Qom.

“It’s like Groundhog Day,” a senior Western diplomat involved in the Iran negotiations said. “Except in Groundhog Day you wake up every day and everything’s the same. With this, you wake up every day and everything’s just a little bit worse.”

Under the IAEA deal Tehran would export 1,200kg (2,650lbs), or 80 per cent, of its low-enriched uranium stockpiles to Russia, where it would be further enriched. Russia, subcontracting for France to skirt Tehran’s objections to dealing directly with Paris, would send the material on to the French, who would convert it into special fuel rods. Those would be used to fuel the Tehran research reactor, which would produce isotopes for medical research.

The UN deal was proposed specifically to head off Iran’s request to buy the fuel ready-enriched, which Western governments feared was simply a ruse to justify them carrying out their own re-enrichment.

Iran says that its nuclear energy programme is only for producing electricity but it is years away from having any nuclear power plants that would use the low-enriched uranium that it has stockpiled and Western capitals fear that its true goal is to acquire a nuclear weapon.

Britain, France and Israel believe that Iran has all the know-how it needs to build a bomb and that weaponisation studies have continued despite Tehran’s insistence that it halted them years ago.

The IAEA has called Western intelligence on weaponisation “compelling” and chided Iran for refusing to answer questions on the subject. Iran remains in breach of five UN resolutions calling on it to halt enrichment until outstanding questions about a military dimension to the programme are resolved.

Nuclear brinkmanship

March 20, 2009 After years of US attempts to isolate Iran, President Obama calls for “engagement grounded in mutual respect”

April 9 President Ahmadinejad says Iran has mastered nuclear fuel cycle and tested enrichment machines

June 12 President Ahmadinejad is re-elected. Mass protests by moderates who say election rigged

August 21 Diplomats say Iran has co-operated with IAEA at two sites

Sep 1 Iran says it’s ready to resume talks with world powers

Sep 2 IAEA says Iran will not produce a nuclear weapon in the near future

Sep 11 US says it will accept Tehran’s offer of talks

Sep 17 Iran says it will never abandon nuclear programme

Sep 24 China dampens expectations of further sanctions

Sep 25 Western leaders make dramatic announcement that Iran is constructing secret plant

Sep 27 Iran begins two days of missile testing

Oct 1 Iran meets six world powers in Geneva

Oct 4 IAEA says it will inspect secret site on October 25

Oct 6 US threatens sweeping sanctions if talks fail

Oct 19 Vienna talks start well, despite Iran’s refusal to negotiate with France

Oct 21 IAEA presents draft deal to reduce Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium

Oct 23 Iran fails to accept deal and offers own proposals

Source: Reuters

Pakistan arrests 11 Iranian guards close to border
(AP) – 49 minutes ago

QUETTA, Pakistan — Pakistani police say they have arrested 11 Iranian Revolutionary Guards on suspicion of illegally entering the country.

Police officer Dadur Raman says the 11 were arrested Monday in southwestern Pakistan close to the border with Iran.

Eight days ago a suicide bomber killed 42 people, including six revolutionary guards, on the Iranian side of the border near Pishin.

Iranian officials have been quoted as linking Pakistani security forces to the attack.

Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Porous borders, angry neighbours By Irfan Husain

Saturday, 24 Oct, 2009
Terrorists have been exploiting Pakistan’s lax control of its frontiers for years, says Irfan Husain.
Above: A paramilitary soldier patrols at Abbato Karaz village near Chaman, a town in Pakistan southwest along the Afghanistan border. —File photo by AP

Any general’s worst fear is to have to fight on two fronts. This is one reason our army has been reluctant to move troops away from our border with India, as the GHQ’s perception is that our old foe is still our biggest threat.

And even though 28,000 troops are now fighting the Taliban in South Waziristan, the bulk of the army still faces east.

Against this backdrop, imagine how many sleepless nights the prospect of a third front must be causing. The recent attack by Jundallah in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province has raised the spectre of hot pursuit into Pakistani Balochistan.

Although this is not an imminent prospect, there are Iranians who are itching to cross the border to crush this terrorist group that has been a thorn in their country’s side since it was established in 2005 by its leader, Abdolmalek Rigi.

Jundallah (not to be confused with Jandola, a Pakistani terrorist group) came into being to supposedly protect the rights of the Sunni Baloch in Iran. However, its close links with drug smugglers and the Taliban in Afghanistan make it anathema to Tehran, and its deadly campaign against the Iranian state has caused scores of casualties.

But even more controversial are the allegations that it has enjoyed CIA support, at least in the recent past. In April 2007, ABC, the American network, carried a report by Brian Ross and Christopher Isham alleging that Jundallah was receiving covert American support.

The story also alleged that the group was based in Pakistan. Other reports asserted that the then US Vice President Dick Cheney discussed Jundallah with Musharraf on a visit to Islamabad.

These allegations tied in neatly with a report by Seymour Hersh, the prize-winning reporter. Published by the New Yorker in July 2008, Hersh wrote that congressional leaders had secretly approved a request for $400m from George Bush to finance covert operations against Iran in a bid to slow down or halt its nuclear programme.

These efforts included clandestine operations, anti-Iran propaganda, and support for terrorist groups like the Mujahideen-i-Khalq. It is unclear whether the Obama administration has terminated this campaign.

Obviously, no Pakistani official in his right mind would wish to be involved in a suicidal policy to help Jundallah in its attacks against Iranian targets. Despite the ups and downs in our relationship with Iran, we have tried to minimise differences, even at the time of tension when Pakistan supported the Taliban, even while they persecuted Afghanistan’s Shia minority when they were in power.

Nevertheless, all too often in Pakistan, the right hand doesn’t know what the left is doing. Some arrested Jundallah militants in Iran have confessed they were trained at a secret camp in Pakistani Balochistan. Whether there was an element of official connivance is hard to say.

Many years ago, while driving from Europe, I crossed the bleak vastness of Sistan. The desert stretched for miles, and there were few signs of human habitation in that barren moonscape. Entering Pakistan, the landscape was much the same.

Although I have not been to that part of Balochistan for some years now, I doubt if much has changed. The terrain is inhospitable and forbidding, and sealing off this border between Iran and Pakistan is clearly not feasible.

Nevertheless, the presence of Jundallah in this desert is causing grave concerns in Tehran and Islamabad. Should the evidence Iran says it has linking Jundallah to Pakistan prove to have weight, our deadly dalliance with extremist terror groups will further erode our security instead of strengthening it.

An issue no Pakistani government has yet faced relates to our open, often unmarked and poorly defended borders. With the exception of our border with India — probably the most militarised in the world — our Kashmir, Afghan and Iranian frontiers are either porous or disputed, or both.

In Gwadar a few years ago, I was surprised to see a large number of pick-ups full of goods driving along the long, flat beach. I was told they were the normal traffic between the city and Iran, and brought in everything from chickens to petrol. Nobody has tried to halt this flow of smuggled goods as it’s cheaper to get them from Iran than it is from Karachi.

This same pattern can be seen on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Called the Durand Line, it has not been accepted by any Afghan government since the British imposed it on Kabul in 1892. I don’t know about current tastes, but when I was there a long time ago, Pakistani K-2 cigarettes were the most popular brand in much of Afghanistan. Pakistani toiletries were available everywhere.

Needless to say, these items were smuggled across, just as imported electrical goods destined for Afghanistan are still being sold across Pakistan.

All this easy movement across borders might have been a good thing had it been limited to bars of soap and other items. But over the years, these smuggling routes have witnessed large numbers of poor people trying to find the promised land in Europe; drug smugglers moving large quantities of heroin and opium; and gunrunners transporting sophisticated arms across Pakistan.

Complicit in this illegal cross-border traffic on both sides are security forces as well as immigration and customs officials. Exploiting these laxly controlled borders, terrorist groups have operated with impunity for years, sending militants to launch attacks without let or hindrance.

Thus far, these militant operations have caused Pakistan to be placed on the defensive by the Afghan and Indian governments. Now Tehran has joined this list of angry neighbours. China has privately expressed its concerns about the activities of Pakistani extremist groups in its Muslim areas.

Even more than porous borders, it is the increasingly religious environment in Pakistan that is proving conducive to the most rabid and violent activism. Those of us who are still in denial about this phenomenon need to ask themselves why it is that Pakistan has become a magnet for extremists from all corners of the globe.

Of course the other factor that is driving Islamic militancy in Pakistan is the steady erosion of the writ of the state. Permitting millions of Pakistanis in the tribal areas to bear arms because it was their custom has resulted in a proliferation of weapons across the country. And all too often, militants get off scot-free after committing the most bloody deeds.

Now that the army has finally gone into action to crush the Taliban in South Waziristan, we need to ensure that the momentum of the fight is maintained, and these killers are not granted safe haven anywhere on Pakistani soil.

Philip wrote:A Paki scribe on the shady happneings on the Paki-Iran border thanks to US mischief against Iran,opening a "third front" for the beleagured Paki army.

Porous borders, angry neighbours By Irfan Husain

Saturday, 24 Oct, 2009
Terrorists have been exploiting Pakistan’s lax control of its frontiers for years, says Irfan Husain.
Above: A paramilitary soldier patrols at Abbato Karaz village near Chaman, a town in Pakistan southwest along the Afghanistan border. —File photo by AP
............

But even more controversial are the allegations that it has enjoyed CIA support, at least in the recent past. In April 2007, ABC, the American network, carried a report by Brian Ross and Christopher Isham alleging that Jundallah was receiving covert American support.

Obviously, no Pakistani official in his right mind would wish to be involved in a suicidal policy to help Jundallah in its attacks against Iranian targets. Despite the ups and downs in our relationship with Iran, we have tried to minimise differences, even at the time of tension when Pakistan supported the Taliban, even while they persecuted Afghanistan’s Shia minority when they were in power.

Nevertheless, all too often in Pakistan, the right hand doesn’t know what the left is doing. Some arrested Jundallah militants in Iran have confessed they were trained at a secret camp in Pakistani Balochistan. Whether there was an element of official connivance is hard to say.

Thus far, these militant operations have caused Pakistan to be placed on the defensive by the Afghan and Indian governments. Now Tehran has joined this list of angry neighbours. China has privately expressed its concerns about the activities of Pakistani extremist groups in its Muslim areas.

October 29, 2009

Tehran court gives British Embassy ‘plotter’ a four-year sentence
Hossein Rassam was sentenced in a closed courtroom

Catherine Philp, Diplomatic Correspondent

A senior Iranian employee of the British Embassy in Tehran has been given a four-year prison sentence after being found guilty of fomenting violence at the behest of the British Government, The Times has learnt.

Hossein Rassam, 44, the embassy’s political counsellor, was sentenced in a closed courtroom this week, although the outcome is yet to be publicly announced. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office learnt of his sentence on Tuesday and summoned the Iranian ambassador in protest. The British ambassador in Tehran has also lodged an official complaint.

Mr Rassam was one of eight Iranian staff at the British Embassy arrested after mass street protests that erupted in cities across Iran following the disputed re-election of President Ahmadinejad on June 12.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, blamed the protests by opposition supporters on a British plot to bring down the regime. Britain denies any involvement. The embassy staff were among hundreds of people rounded up and detained after the disturbances. Seven others were released without charge but Mr Rassam was sent to the notorious Evin prison in Tehran and charged with being the “kingpin” behind a British plot.

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In a statement to The Times, David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, said that Mr Rassam’s sentence was unacceptable and urged that it be immediately repealed. He dismissed the charges against Mr Rassam as “wholly without foundation”.

He added: “We understand the sentence can be appealed. I urge the authorities to conduct this quickly and overturn this harsh sentence. Such a decision is wholly unjustified and represents further harassment of embassy staff for going about their normal and legitimate duties.”

Mr Rassam is still on bail after his release from Evin prison in August. It is unclear whether he will have to return to jail immediately or remain on bail pending his appeal. Last night he was returning from a trip to the north of Tehran to break the news of his sentence to his elderly mother. His wife and son are no longer in the country.

Foreign journalists were barred from attending any of Mr Rassam’s hearings but the state news agency reported that he had told the court that a £300,000 budget had been allocated to establishing contacts with political groups before the election, including Mir Hossein Mousavi, the reformist opposition candidate who claims that he was robbed of victory.

Mr Miliband warned of negative consequences for Iran from countries other than Britain, calling Mr Rassam’s treatment “an attack on the entire diplomatic community”.

He was arrested on June 27 and accused of “acting against national security” — a catch-all charge for any kind of political dissent. He has worked at the embassy since 2004.

The first details of other charges were published in July by Fars, the state news agency, which also reported that he had given confessions that would “cast light on many hidden angles of the interference of Britain in Iran’s internal affairs in recent years”.

Fars said that Mr Rassam was accused of spying for Britain and feeding anti-Iranian reports and “internal intelligence” to the British Government in his role as the embassy’s chief political analyst. A government newspaper headline that greeted his first court appearance in August read: “The British Embassy: headquarters for the coup command.”

Fars reported: “He has proved his strong anti-Iranian approaches by linking British ambassadors with elements from anti-government spectrums.” Mr Rassam had also provided “internal intelligence” to Sir John Sawers when he served as political director of the Foreign Office, it said. Sir John is now head of M16, where one of his most important jobs is to oversee intelligence gathering on what Britain suspects is Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.

Mr Rassam was also accused of giving “strategic advice” to foreign journalists in Iran including the BBC, whose correspondent was expelled after allegations of provoking unrest. Fars said that Mr Rassam had been arrested for attending a demonstration on June 28. In fact, the embassy employees were arrested a day earlier.

News of Mr Rassam’s sentence came as Britain and other major powers awaited Iran’s reply on a proposed deal over its uranium stockpiles that may determine the future of diplomatic negotiations with the country.

shyamd wrote:Iran is taking the issue very seriously. Watch, Iranians will get a few ISI guys being bumped off and a massive IED Mubarak in NWFP government installation, just like the last time there was a Jundullah attack in Iran.

...The position of the Iranian Government is neither absolutely safe nor absolutely vulnerable like Eastern Europe 1989. There is growing dissent among former members of the government and the elite’s clerics. Finally, the Government’s policies on access to information are neither open like those during the Eastern European uprisings nor utterly closed like those in China. Although pro-Green media have been largely blacked out now, before the protests the anti-establishment faction of the population had relatively good access to news and analysis.

Given these circumstances, the best way to describe the situation in Iran is that of stalemate. The government cannot possibly attempt to repeat the Tiananmen Square suppression of 1989 because it could bring undesired results. It would alienate the already-raging opposition clerics, politicians within the government who are sympathetic to Greens, and supporters of the government within the population. This could prove disastrous.

The Greens, on the other hand, do not have a quick victory in sight. Even if Mir Hossein Mousavi marched his supporters and took over government buildings, the Revolutionary Guard would step in and massacre them. The idea that three million protesters are unstoppable because no one can halt millions is naïve.

There is an old fable in Persian: If 20 sparrows are perched on a tree and you shoot one, how many sparrows remain? The answer is none. You don’t have to kill a million people to scatter two million. You only need to kill a thousand or so, and the government of Iran seems to have the power to do so if it is pushed too far too soon.

So, for now, both sides are reluctant to escalate the situation further because neither is prepared or ready to strike a killer blow. Tomorrow’s 13 Aban protests throughout Iran will be yet another replay of strategies. The protesters will attempt to isolate the government further, and the government will attempt to emerge with minimal casualties inflicted upon the populace and minimal damage to its grip on power. Both sides will likely retire after the showdown to prepare for forthcoming rounds. Unlike China and Eastern Europe in 1989, we are in for a very long haul.

Iran 'tested advanced nuclear warhead design'
The United Nations nuclear watchdog has demanded that Iran explain evidence indicating that its scientists have experimented with the design of an advanced nuclear warhead, it emerged last night.

By Our Foreign Staff
Published: 12:14AM GMT 06 Nov 2009

According to leaked documentation from a dossier compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iranian scientists may have tested high-explosive components of the design of a secret technology known as a "two-point implosion" device.

The technology can enable the building of warheads that are simpler and smaller than older ones. By reducing the size of warheads, it is easier to put them on a missile.

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'Space travellers' emerge after simulated mission to MarsDocumentation from the dossier, entitled "Possible Military Dimensions of Iran's Nuclear Program" and leaked to The Guardian, refers to experiments testing a two-point detonation design.

The information was partly drawn from reports submitted to the IAEA by Western intelligence agencies. It is part of the evidence of nuclear weaponisation collated by the IAEA that has been presented to Iran for its response.

In the past, the IAEA has regarded such information from Western intelligence agencies with scepticism, particularly since the Iraq war and the faulty reporting of the existence of weapons of mass destruction.

But Mohamed ElBaradei, the IAEA's director general, has said the evidence of Iranian weaponisation "appears to have been derived from multiple sources over different periods of time, appears to be generally consistent, and is sufficiently comprehensive and detailed that it needs to be addressed by Iran".

Some extracts from the dossier had already been made public but it had not been known that it had contained documentation about such an advanced warhead.

"It is breathtaking that Iran could be working on this sort of material," a European government adviser on nuclear issues told The Guardian.

Details of the documents have emerged amid tension over Iran's rejection of a deal that would remove most of its enriched uranium stockpile for a year and replace it with nuclear fuel rods that would be more difficult to turn into weapons.

Tehran has also rejected negotiations, were due to start last week, over its uranium enrichment programme, which is in breach of UN Security Council resolutions.

In the first high-level bilateral meeting after the recent elections in both countries, Foreign Ministers of Iran and India will discuss prospects of closer cooperation in the energy sector and developing transit routes to Russia, Central Asia and Afghanistan during Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki’s two-day visit next week.

“We are very keen on the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, the sources asserted while pointing out that critical issues of security and pricing remain to be addressed to India’s satisfaction especially after the blast in Iran’s Sistan province on October 18 that killed several high level Iranian security officials. They described as “speculation” reports of China replacing India as a partner in the pipeline.{It is not speculation. China has been cleverly developing its energy security and more often, it has been at the cost of Indian interests.}

In case Iran and India are able to resolve details relating to closer energy cooperation and trans-Iran transit routes at subsequent meetings, Dr. Singh could visit Iran in February, other sources said.

The sources said India was very keen on the integrated development of the Iranian Chabar port and building a railway line from there to Bam on the Iranian-Afghanistan border. From there goods could be taken to the Afghan garland highway through the Zaranj-Delaram highway built by India in Afghanistan. . . . The two sides will also touch upon the North-South corridor agreed upon by Iran, Russia and India.

No stranger to India, Mr. Mottaki earlier visited India in 2006 but had an even earlier acquaintance as a student at Bangalore’s Al Amin College.

Indian Foreign Minister S. M. Krishna (L) gestures as he arrives with Minister of Foreign Affairs of Islamic Republic of Iran, Manocheher Mottaki for a meeting in New Delhi on November 16, 2009. The Iranian foreign minister is on a two day official visit to India till November 17.

India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (R) speaks with Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki (L) during their meeting in New Delhi November 16, 2009. Mottaki is on a two-day visit to India.

Iran's foreign minister has arrived in India for an official visit that will include talks on economic cooperation as well as regional and global developments.

After getting off his plane at the airport in New Delhi on Monday, Manouchehr Mottaki told reporters that his two-day visit to the Indian capital would focus on economic cooperation talks and political negotiations.

Among the high-ranking officials that Mottaki is scheduled to meet during his stay in New Delhi are his counterpart Somanahalli Mallaiah Krishna and the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

In an interview that was conducted on the eve of Mottaki's trip to India, the Iranian ambassador in New Delhi gave a more detailed overview of what the two sides plan to discuss in the upcoming meetings.

Seyyed Mehdi Nabizadeh said that the economic talks would cover topics such as energy cooperation, the planned North-South corridor, development of Iran's railway system and sale of electricity to India.

He said discussing the possibility of greater banking cooperation between Iranian and Indian financial institutions such as the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) and the Reserve Bank of India would also be on the agenda.

Joint projects in scientific, cultural and educational fields would also be part of the talks.

Before leaving Tehran for New Delhi, Mottaki said that the visit which is his second trip to India in a period of four years, is expected to end with a four-year road map for mutual ties.

“The long-held ties between our two countries need to be reengineered with a new design and a fresh road map considering the developments of the past few years,” he told reporters.

When Iran and India sit across the table for a high-level series of talks next week, the common link of two troubled neighbours — Pakistan and Afghanistan — will dominate discussions. A new trade route to Afghanistan and the common threat of terror originating from Pakistan will come up for discussions when Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki comes for his two-day visit here starting Monday.

Mottaki, who will be the first senior leader to visit India since the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad in July, will hold a series of discussions with his Indian counterparts on a variety of issues, including energy security, the proposed gas pipeline project as well as terror groups in Pakistan that are targeting both India and Iran.

India is keen to take forward discussions on the development of the Chabahar port in south Iran and an integrated railway line to Bam that would provide a direct trade route to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

With the Zaranj-Delaram road link in Afghanistan already completed by the Border Roads Organisation (BRO), India is keen that the rail link from the Iranian deep sea port of Chabahar to Bam gets completed at the earliest, connecting it to the main Garland highway in Afghanistan.

Sources said the rail link and port expansion project would also be discussed at a joint working group meeting between the countries that would be convened shortly. “We are keen to see it through so that it can be used for trade with Central Asia and Afghanistan,” they said.

The two sides will also discuss the proposed gas pipeline that would come through Pakistan. While India has expressed its keenness for the project, the proposed pipeline is not on the immediate horizon, given safety concerns and differences on pricing. However, the sources pointed out that both sides were working to sort out differences and were keen on the project.

Mottaki, who will call on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and will hold discussions with his Indian counterpart S M Krishna, is also expected to discuss the security situation in Pakistan that is affecting both the countries.

Manmohan, Krishna hold talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki

India and Iran on Monday held talks on closer cooperation in energy, transit routes to central Asia and sharing of information on militant activity in the Pakistan-Afghanistan belt.

In the first high-level talks after elections in both countries, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna, in talks with visiting Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, flagged New Delhi’s interest in the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.
Trilateral dialogue

They also discussed prospects of trilateral dialogue between India, Iran and Afghanistan on transit routes to central Asia, with the Iranian port of Chabar to be the staging point for goods.

In four hours of talks with Mr. Krishna, including a luncheon in his honour, Mr. Mottaki discussed issues relating to security, pricing and guaranteed supply, and resolved to convene a meeting of the Joint Working Group to discuss the finer details of this and other energy related projects.

“Our interest in having a trilateral agreement was underlined,” said informed sources about the transit route beginning from the Chabar port. It was planned to construct a railway line from Chabar to Bam. From there, goods would be taken from the Afghan border town of Zaranj to Delaram on an Indian-built road to the Afghan garland highways, which provide access to several central Asian republics.
Economic content

The need to add greater economic content was also recognised during delegation-level talks between the two Foreign Ministers.

Both sides touched upon increasing contacts in the banking sector, civil aviation cooperation, double taxation avoidance agreement, bilateral investment protection agreement and civil aviation cooperation.

Mr. Mottaki renewed an invitation to Dr. Singh to visit Tehran, and it was agreed to work out the details through diplomatic channels.
LNG deal

India also raised the issue of the implementation of the Liquefied Natural Gas deal signed in 2005 for the supply of five million tonnes per annum of gas.

New Delhi maintained that as far as it was concerned, the agreement was signed and reopening it to accommodate Tehran’s desire for higher rates was unacceptable.

The two countries decided to expand their counter-terror cooperation through intelligence-sharing and coordination between their intelligence agencies, the sources said.

A horrific suicide attack in southeast Iran in October that targeted the country’s Revolutionary Guards was blamed on Pakistan-based Jundallah, a Sunni extremist outfit which claimed responsibility. It was the first time terror outfits in Pakistan targeted Iranian territory - a development that has led Tehran to deepen counter-terror cooperation with New Delhi.

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With a recent attack in the southeastern province of Sistan-Balochistan, near Iran’s border with Pakistan, masterminded by a Pakistani extremist outfit as a backdrop, the talks are expected to be dominated by cross-border terrorism, official sources said here.

Pakistan-based Jundallah had claimed responsibility for the Oct 18 attack in which a suicide bomber killed five senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guard and at least 37 others in Pishin district near the Pakistan border.

The attack, for which Iran accused Pakistan of shielding operatives of Jundallah, has brought it closer to India which has been a victim of cross-border terrorism for decades.

The two sides will also discuss the volatile situation in Afghanistan, in whose stability they have high stakes. Both New Delhi and Tehran oppose the Taliban and had backed the Northern Alliance in the run-up to the ouster of the Taliban regime from Afghanistan in 2001.