Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

dinesha · Post by **dinesha** » 18 Sep 2009 09:26

Arun_S
Can’t the 25KT boosted device be scaled up to deliver high confidence150-200KT FBF without proof test? What’s keep these from being weaponisation? In the IDR article you have estimated the weight Of 150 KT Boosted device to be 450 kgs. Is this the weight of complete package? Will not 3 of these 150kt FBF be MIRVed in land based Agni’s will work as deterrence against China?

What will INS Arihant carry in absence of suitable device?

dinesha · Post by **dinesha** » 18 Sep 2009 09:32

No voice vote over result: Mishra
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/index.php? ... tionid=114

On why the government did not conduct a sixth nuclear test in 1998 to clear the doubts, Mishra said it was not necessary as all five tests were successful. " The question did not arise at all. In fact, there were never any doubts in my mind regarding the tests.

Confirmation of Sixth device that was ready to be tested..

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 18 Sep 2009 09:32

Posting in full because it has additional information:

dinesha wrote:Dud bomb was made a success by govt diktat
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/Story ... iktat.html

Dud bomb was made a success by govt diktat
New Delhi September 18, 2009

The government is choosing to ignore evidence that India's 1998 hydrogen bomb test at Pokhran was a failure.

It has disregarded the report of the Defence Research and Development Organisation ( DRDO) team led by scientist K. Santhanam that carried out the test which had said it was effectively a fizzle.

Also, little attention has been paid to the detailed information provided by a supersecret facility of the Aviation Research Centre ( ARC) - the technical wing of India's external intelligence agency, the Research & Analysis Wing ( R& AW) - which had endorsed the recording of the test by DRDO. Santhanam had recently said that the 1998 hydrogen bomb test was a " fizzle". He has now made another sensational disclosure - that Pokhran- II was declared a success by a " political fatwa" of the NDA government ignoring technical data to the contrary.

There might be no ' fatwa' this time, but there is the same disregard for the facts pertaining to the 1998 test. The government approach seems to be more in keeping with political expediency than a desire to find out what really happened.

On Tuesday, the Atomic Energy Commission ( AEC) upheld the figure of 45 kiloton yield for the hydrogen bomb test of May 11, 1998. But, the Karnal seismic array maintained by the ARC had come up with a figure of just 20- 25 kiloton yield. This was in consonance with the figures that the DRDO instruments had recorded.

The facility at Karnal in Haryana, which was specifically set up in association with the US's National Security Agency ( NSA) and the Central Intelligence Agency ( CIA) in the wake of the first Chinese nuclear test in October 1964, has ultra- sophisticated instrumentation obtained from the US. " These are more sophisticated than anything that the Department of Atomic Energy ( DAE) has," said a source. They are designed to track underground nuclear weapon tests and have their instruments in a deep vertical shaft dug deep into the ground, in contrast to the system mounted on the surface at the DAE facility at Gauribidanur in Karnataka.

The R& AW collated all its findings and after analysing them, sent them on to the government, presumably the Prime Minister's Office ( PMO)- Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the PM then. These findings, which were in agreement with those of the instruments set up by the DRDO on the test site, created consternation within the government.

Meetings were held to reconcile the reports it had received from the DRDO, the DAE and the ARC. Finally, the then national security adviser Brajesh Mishra convened a meeting of the DAE and DRDO representatives along with the three armed forces chiefs sometime in October 1998.

Since the two scientific organisations stuck to their positions, Mishra took a " voice vote" which decided that the DRDO was wrong and the DAE was right. An official familiar with the meeting noted that the

ARC representative was not invited for the meeting. " The decision to declare the hydrogen bomb a success was more of a political fatwa than a considered scientifictechnical determination," says Santhanam.

The NDA government's response was an outcome of two interconnected factors.

First, the admission of failure would have been politically damaging. Second, the tests had enraged the US and New Delhi was simply not willing to prolong the process and it quickly declared a unilateral moratorium on further testing.

Santhanam has since spelt out the reasons why he made his claim that the test was a fizzle. He has pointed out that the key instrumentation - those for measuring acceleration and the ground movement- were all put in place by the DRDO. " They were in the shaft and radiating outward from the location of the device to the bunkers where the recording instruments were some 2- 3 km away," he said.

He said these had been calibrated "several hundred times" and had little room for malfunction.

The readings of the instruments were then factored into mathematical equations that provided estimates of the yield.

He has also pointed to the fact that the shaft with the hydrogen bomb device had remained intact, in contrast to the fission bomb, one which had produced a crater some 35m wide.

While the DAE has claimed that the DRDO's seismic systems had malfunctioned, they have not yet responded to the fact that there was another, more sophisticated test, called the CORRTEX test which also confirmed the DRDO finding. The CORRTEX estimates the size of the explosion by measuring the time it takes to crush a cable inserted into the test shaft.

In the case of the Pokhran tests, the Terminal Ballistics Laboratory, Chandigarh, had a more sophisticated and sensitive system using a fibre- optic cable which gave an estimate of the yield in terms of the time the shock wave takes for the light to be extinguished in the cable.

The ARC is now part of the National Technical Research Office and the scientist who carried out the analysis is still in service with the outfit. Another source has pointed out, that the same facility had given a yield for the 1974 test as being below the one claimed.

The history of American technical involvement in monitoring Chinese weapons of mass destruction activity is well- known because of the infamous Nanda Devi episode. A nuclearpowered communications intelligence device was emplaced high up on the mountain in the Uttarakhand Himalayas.

It later vanished, provoking fears of nuclear contamination of the rivers of the Ganga system.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 18 Sep 2009 09:44

In 1999 and 2000 I took R.Chidambram's claim of 42 kt for S1 and 15 kT for S2 as Brahma Satya and analyzed the effect of seismic interference pattern on Azimuthal plane. Becuse one explosion was 3 times bigger than the other, the interference pattern on Azimuthal plane was not as impressive. Thus it did not help me justify why the western sensors read lower value.

From what we know today the S1 and S2 were much more comparable and the seismic energy will radiate out with a very significant ratio between maxima & minima depending on azimuthal orientation.

The above factor should be considered when understanding the ARC's 20-25 kt measurement. Few observations:

1) If S1 was 42 kT and S2 was 15 kt, the effect of interference will be less significant and the reading will approach the value of 35-57 kT (actual value dependent on relative azimuth)

2) If OTOH S1 was 27 kT and S2 was 15 kt, the effect of interference will be very pronounced and the reading vary 20-42 kT (actual value dependent on relative azimuth)

I will have to pull out or create afresh ( don't have time for that) my spreadsheet with those calculations

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Sep 2009 10:02

let the current situation play out.

vina · Post by **vina** » 18 Sep 2009 10:21

The above factor should be considered when understanding the ARC's 20-25 kt measurement. Few observations:

1) If S1 was 42 kT and S2 was 15 kt, the effect of interference will be less significant and the reading will approach the value of 35-57 kT (actual value dependent on relative azimuth)

2) If OTOH S1 was 27 kT and S2 was 15 kt, the effect of interference will be very pronounced and the reading vary 20-42 kT (actual value dependent on relative azimuth)

To do that you will at the bare minimum need to know 1) The distance between the two shafts and 2) The orientation of the axis to be able to do that and then assume fully homogeneous medium to calculate the phase differnence and the amplitude along the interference pattern of the two wave fronts and calculate the amplitude at a given distances from the "dipole" knowing the speed of propagation of the shock through the earth's crust.

Further complications , there will be reflected waves (totally internally reflected) and multipath waves at a particular point that could cloud the picture. I guess if you take a simplistic 2D analysis, you could possibly arrive at some rough /approx ball park numbers.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Sep 2009 10:22

ShauryaT wrote:
NRao wrote: IF "The fission bomb" created a crater of "25 meters in diameter", then how can he claim that "There was no crater"? either there was no crater of the fission part left a crater of 25 meters dia.

If you read Carey Sublette's analysis he says there was no crater.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Sep 2009 10:35

In India the systems work extremely beautiful. Even if you put a bunch of anti-national who are determined to destroy the country they simply will not be able to do what they want. They can't even move an inch ahead in their agenda. Great going!!!

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 18 Sep 2009 11:06

No voice vote over result: Mishra
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/index.php? ... tionid=114

On why the government did not conduct a sixth nuclear test in 1998 to clear the doubts, Mishra said it was not necessary as all five tests were successful. " The question did not arise at all. In fact, there were never any doubts in my mind regarding the tests.

Good job by Chidambram and APJ Kalam.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 18 Sep 2009 11:12

I recall Air Chief Mehra's words as he explained to me how Brijesh Mishra (the NSA) had no leverage (helpless) to command R Chidambram to do what he wants him to do.

And some one else from Pok-II vintage telling me how babu R.Chidambram would even intimidate PM Vajpayee.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Sep 2009 11:20

we worship false gods in dark, confined temples

if we had a long running test program like rest of P5, I suppose a separate
dept would be there to measure and audit the tests. but our minimal, apologetic
test pgm left no room for that. judge, jury and police all in one dept.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Sep 2009 11:44

Arun_S wrote:No voice vote over result: Mishra
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/index.php? ... tionid=114

On why the government did not conduct a sixth nuclear test in 1998 to clear the doubts, Mishra said it was not necessary as all five tests were successful. " The question did not arise at all. In fact, there were never any doubts in my mind regarding the tests.
Good job by Chidambram and APJ Kalam.

You mean Brajesh Mishra is innocent because he has been brainwashed by these two people. Is that what your sources tell you or are you absolving Mishra or implicating others?

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 18 Sep 2009 12:41

Arun_S, if possible can you elaborate on the following that you wrote. In terms of whether it is doable or not and is there any move on that front.

It will be erroneous to think that FBF weapons are not scalable 50 - 150 KT, that will be the last resort if TN does not get tested. With all associated penalties in terms of requiring:
1) more missiles (and ATVs) to compensate for oomph, and
2) bigger missiles (bigger ATVs) to account for heavier payload, and
3) more reactors/reprocessing/stockpile to account for poorer fission efficiency of conversion to energy (compared to TN)

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Sep 2009 13:45

ALL these news reports, coming out, NEED to be proofed by their editors. The written English is rather poor, which leads to further confusion.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Sep 2009 13:57

As random timepass let me post what seems to have been given the go-by in the flurry of posts on the subject. Now here is what Santhanam says:
http://beta.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/article21311.ece

No country having undertaken only two weapon related tests of which the core TN device failed, can claim to have a CMD. This is corroborated by fact that even after 11 years the TN device has not been weaponised by BARC while the 25 kiloton fission device has been fully weaponised and operationally deployed on multiplate weapon platforms.

What strikes me about this message is not just the fact that I can't find the word multiplate in any online dictionary. No that is not what I am trying to point out.

We now know that the so called thermonuclear test was a fizzle (as narrated by Santhanam to the media). We also know (from Santhanam) that the nation has been told lies.

But what is curious is that (as per Santhanam's narrative) those same lies have not been fed to the people who make the actual bombs for India's deterrent. After all - many people have assumed, and some people have stated that India's deterrence is based on lies and that the thermonuclear bombs do not work. But Santhanam says that the thermonuclear device has not been weaponized and only the 25 kt fission device has been "fully weaponized". If "the lies" had been carried through to their logical conclusion, the fizzling thermonuclear designs should have been weaponized by now confirming that the liars fully stand by their lies and will not retract at any cost - which is what is normal for the liars I meet.

But that has not occurred. If Santhanam is to be believed the lies have not spread to the weapon makers and they were not been intimidated by their own boss/former boss the way the Prime Minister of India is alleged to have been intimidated. The actual people in the weapon making business have been told the truth and have been told to weaponize only designs that are known to work. Interesting way to tell lies.

So who has lied to whom and for what reason? I wonder if Santhanam will be able to explain.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Sep 2009 14:15

shiv wrote:
ShauryaT wrote:

If you read Carey Sublette's analysis he says there was no crater.

Curious. What does he say the yield was - if any?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Sep 2009 14:29

Shiv,

It seems to me that the lie was packed off.

B Raman wrote: Santhanam retired in 2001 and was appointed the Director of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, in place of Air Commodore Jasjit Singh. In that capacity, he replaced Jasjit Singh as a member of the third NSAB in 2002. According to sections of the media, it reportedly suggested some amendments to the recommendations made by the first board. Despite being a member of this NSAB, Santhanam does not appear to have shared with it his conclusion that the test was a fizzle. As a result whatever recommendation was made by the third NSAB, of which Santhanam was a member, was also reportedly based on the belief that the test was a success.

I have to guess that he did not bring up this very important point for some reason. Santhanam must have known what is and what is not weaponized at that time.

That reason I suspect is that ALL of them knew then it was a lie and therefore decided to pack it off. Which is perhaps why MMS also changed the tune to MCD.

This is farcical too.

However, in a way I am very glad. This - hopefully - would force a lot of issues to be resolved one way or the other. With MMS stating during the 123 debate 'my scientists tell me we do not have to test', perhaps has locked India into a corner from some PoVs. However, India has a few 'jail break' cardS, so testing, I think, is not an issue.

The issue is does India really need a TN.

I am still waiting for RC/AK to drop another shoe. Curious about why Sikka backed out of his talk too.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Sep 2009 14:30

NRao wrote:
Curious. What does he say the yield was - if any?

Check it out - there is a lot here
http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/India/I ... ields.html

The fact that the Shakti I shot was completely contained, and produced no subsidence crater allows some consistency checking, but without placing significant constraints on yield. The reported mound (not visible in available photographs) is not a retarc, such low relief structures are not infrequently produced by deep shots (

and

Using the scaling law and constants for granite found here it can be determined that a 43 kt explosion at a depth of 200 m (the limiting case) in granite would produce a cavity with a radius of 42 - 44 m, and a chimney rising 176 - 300 m (i.e. reaching the surface) given that the chimney formation would be through porous non-granitic rock. Since the near surface of the Pokhran site is composed of loose material (sand and perhaps alluvium) that cannot cap chimney formation it seems unlikely that a 43 kt shot at 200 m could have avoided producing a subsidence crater. If the depth was 250 m the cavity would have been modestly smaller 40 - 42 m, and the chimney height similarly reduced. This makes capping of the subsidence chimney plausible, though a crater could still have occurred under favorable circumstances. The combination of geological factors, depth and yield reported from Indian sources thus is consistent with the observed effects. The observed effects are also consistent with lower yields of course. The absence of a subsidence crater however effectively rules out a burial depth of only 200 m however with the reported yield.
By comparison the Shakti II fission shot, at 12 kt, produced a large subsidence crater in a shaft "over 150 m" deep [Chengappa 2000; p. 422]. If the depth were exactly 150 m the scaled depth would be 215 feet, consistent with the crater formation, though it could easily be deeper and produce the observed effects. The expected cavity radius would also be about 42 m, due to the shallower burial depth and softer rock, and the chimney would be certain to reach the surface. This is also consistent with the roughly 80 m crater shown here, since the radius of the chimney and subsidence crater is usually about the same as the original cavity (cf. Smiling Buddha above).

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Sep 2009 14:42

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 18 Sep 2009 14:49

I think the scientists were done in by the netas. The netas went in for the bomblastic success claim and left the scientists holding on to the sada hua lemon to explain away under pain. Today as it seems the stench of the sada hua lemon has premeated every level of our national fibre, and everyone knows, the scientists will be made the scapegoats.

I feel that Atal Bihari Vajpayee needs to now come out in the open (Wouldn't the congress love it) since he was PM at the time the obfuscation was made and force India's hand.
This will prevent MMS from sweeping this under the carpet as GoI currently desperately wants to do.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 18 Sep 2009 15:20

Gagan wrote:Russia gave India the design or hand held BARC men to rectify the TN just as Russia hand held BARC/Kalpakkam on arihant's reactor?

Since you are making such a serious allegation, could you please post any proof or references that you may have for such a claim? In case you dont have any, can we please not make completely baseless and unfounded claims and get your post deleted?

You are providing fuel to every NPA's wildest fantasies.

kit · Post by **kit** » 18 Sep 2009 15:25

NRao wrote:Shiv,

It seems to me that the lie was packed off.

B Raman wrote: Santhanam retired in 2001 and was appointed the Director of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, in place of Air Commodore Jasjit Singh. In that capacity, he replaced Jasjit Singh as a member of the third NSAB in 2002. According to sections of the media, it reportedly suggested some amendments to the recommendations made by the first board. Despite being a member of this NSAB, Santhanam does not appear to have shared with it his conclusion that the test was a fizzle. As a result whatever recommendation was made by the third NSAB, of which Santhanam was a member, was also reportedly based on the belief that the test was a success.
I have to guess that he did not bring up this very important point for some reason. Santhanam must have known what is and what is not weaponized at that time.

That reason I suspect is that ALL of them knew then it was a lie and therefore decided to pack it off. Which is perhaps why MMS also changed the tune to MCD.

This is farcical too.

However, in a way I am very glad. This - hopefully - would force a lot of issues to be resolved one way or the other. With MMS stating during the 123 debate 'my scientists tell me we do not have to test', perhaps has locked India into a corner from some PoVs. However, India has a few 'jail break' cardS, so testing, I think, is not an issue.

The issue is does India really need a TN.

I am still waiting for RC/AK to drop another shoe. Curious about why Sikka backed out of his talk too.

Your adversary has weapons to take out entire Indian cities with a few missiles carrying fusion weapons .. even assuming India to have a modest ABM capability.Arent your General calling for a revision of Indian nuclear no first use when faced with an increasing PK stockpile ? Nuclear weapons especially the megatons are the more 'peaceful' weapons in the sense they would deter the enemy not to enter into a nuclear war scenario.Sub megaton weapons have no place for keeping peace in the India - China context Both are big countries and can really take kiloton hits and continue an ugly war .I suggest some war gaming scenarios with kiloton weapons in the India China context and see what happens., its ugly doesn't defeat anyone and is bad for both.But megaton weapons are designed to take entire metropolises like shanghai or mumbai in one go .They deter a war , and that is best.As I said nuke wars are a real possibility in this world and the best way to win a strategic nuclear war is never to go into it and having said that never tempt your enemy into thinking you are weak., for then you would have already lost the first round .

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 18 Sep 2009 15:37

Tanaji wrote:
Gagan wrote:Russia gave India the design or hand held BARC men to rectify the TN just as Russia hand held BARC/Kalpakkam on arihant's reactor?
Since you are making such a serious allegation, could you please post any proof or references that you may have for such a claim?

Tanaji, can you post proof to the contrary? I can't post any proof, and neither can you.

Since the nation is a victim of a fraud played upon it by the powers that be, one wonders how bad the rot really is. It is speculation only, which is why I have a question mark after the statement.

Tanaji wrote:You are providing fuel to every NPA's wildest fantasies.

Saar, the NPAs don't need fuel to be added to their vivid imaginations. It turns out we got fuel added to our imaginations by a white lie. We on BRF had the 'war inside tibet' thread - which no one posts on anymore, turns out the enemy not deterred by the fizzle is indulging in cross LAC incursions and we now have the ' Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis' dhaga.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Sep 2009 15:40

People keep asking whether smaller bombs will do etc. It's a public holiday today (Mahalaya Amavasya) and a rainy no golf afternoon.

Thermonuclear bombs are best not because they are big, but because they save a lot of fissile material and make a little go a long way.

As regards the relative effects of larger bombs versus smaller bombs here is a table I generated that shows the relative sizes of bombs and relative areas that they will affect.

I have taken 25 kt as the basic bomb unit and the area affected by 25 kt as one area unit.

Note that:

Three 25 kt bombs (total 75 kt) will affect a larger area than one 100 kt bomb
Three 100 kt bombs (total 300 kt) will affect a larger area than one 500 kt bomb
Three 200 kt bombs (total 600 kt)will affect a larger area than one 1 megaton bomb
Twelve 25 kt bombs (total 300 kt) will affect a larger area than one 1 megaton bomb
More bombs mean more delivery vehicles which are more expensive.
More fission bombs means more fissile material expended - so smaller arsenal

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 18 Sep 2009 15:44

More than the issue of economy of fissile material use and lightweight=> longer ranged missiles, I feel this is a scientific issue.
If there is a science associated with TN weapon making, India must posses it if others do. Developing this may have some important offshoots.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 18 Sep 2009 15:45

Gagan wrote:
Gagan wrote:Russia gave India the design or hand held BARC men to rectify the TN just as Russia hand held BARC/Kalpakkam on arihant's reactor?

Tanaji, can you post proof to the contrary? I can't post any proof, and neither can you.

Since the nation is a victim of a fraud played upon it by the powers that be, one wonders how bad the rot really is. It is speculation only, which is why I have a question mark after the statement.

Sorry, this is curious logic.

Mods have constantly ruled saying accusing MMS etc as traitors is not kosher since their is no proof behind the assertion. IOW, assumed innocent till proved guilty. You are the one that has made the assertion, ergo its up to you to provide the proof. BARC remains innocent till proved guilty of the claim.

Nothing personal, but I would ask mods to decide either way.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Sep 2009 15:46

Gagan wrote: If there is a science associated with TN weapon making, India must posses it

Absolute truth.

kit · Post by **kit** » 18 Sep 2009 15:50

Tanaji wrote:You are providing fuel to every NPA's wildest fantasies.

Saar, the NPAs don't need fuel to be added to their vivid imaginations. It turns out we got fuel added to our imaginations by a white lie. We on BRF had the 'war inside tibet' thread - which no one posts on anymore, turns out the enemy not deterred by the fizzle is indulging in cross LAC incursions and we now have the ' Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis' dhaga.[/quote]

Quite possible that China knows the real capability of an Indian retaliatory (sic) nuclear strike if push comes to shove !

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 18 Sep 2009 16:01

China of all nations would know exactly where india stands. The one nation that India seeks to deter knows the truth. China has a very sympathetic political constituency in India, with such a large constituency which was in power not too long ago how is it possible that the chinese were not updated on the latest gyaan? This is besides the fact that chinese intel within india is efficient enough.

That begets the question, who was the obfuscation directed at? Since other nations would have found out sooner or later.
1. From the scientists to the netas?
2. From the Netas to the Indian public?

There seems to be an element of both here, although the netas seem to be responsible more.

I can understand that after the TN fizzle, to keep the veil of deterrence intact, the netas and scientists exaggerated the yeild of S-1. But for gods sake, why did the 8KT yield of the Smiling Buddha become 13KT?

kit · Post by **kit** » 18 Sep 2009 16:21

Gagan wrote:China of all nations would know exactly where india stands. The one nation that India seeks to deter knows the truth. China has a very sympathetic political constituency in India, with such a large constituency which was in power not too long ago how is it possible that the chinese were not updated on the latest gyaan? This is besides the fact that chinese intel within india is efficient enough.

That begets the question, who was the obfuscation directed at? Since other nations would have found out sooner or later.
1. From the scientists to the netas?
2. From the Netas to the Indian public?

There seems to be an element of both here, although the netas seem to be responsible more.

I can understand that after the TN fizzle, to keep the veil of deterrence intact, the netas and scientists exaggerated the yeild of S-1. But for gods sake, why did the 8KT yield of the Smiling Buddha become 13KT?

Yeah , that being I am concerned at another developing angle to the developing 'strategic' context .. namely the US of A .. with India going big time for all sorts of American weapons what political or military will would be there to conduct another test ? If your government was scared of American wrath after Pokhran 2 and stopped the sixth test , judge for yourself what kind of pressure the american government will be able to bring on successive Indian administrations ! India is literally between the devil and the deep sea and that too of the making of its 'leaders' .Strategically speaking America is as bad for Indian health as the Chinese and It looks like the babus have decided to go with the seemingly seductive 'lesser' evil

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Sep 2009 16:28

Gagan wrote: But for gods sake, why did the 8KT yield of the Smiling Buddha become 13KT?

That was necessary to match the curves after Santhanam said 27 kt.

kit · Post by **kit** » 18 Sep 2009 16:29

And there seems to be only one way out ..get the help of an old friend , weakened but still a friend. lets hope some people would wake up , put things in the proper perspective and do what one has to do.There are ways to test still ., newer and better weapons, and not just weapons but more important is to cultivate a patriotic and nationalistic spirit among those who matter .Those trillions of Indian money in Swiss and German banks are just a harsh reminder of how India's politik has become

dinesha · Post by **dinesha** » 18 Sep 2009 17:02

Santhanam says it's standard procedure in science to form a group of stalwarts to probe a claim of this kind, and that the probe must be based on scientific facts.
"It is a standard procedure in science and engineering. If standard proceedings are contested then a group of stalwarts must be formed to look into relevant facts, to look into claims that dispute. The committee must be allowed to form its own rules. If there is classified information that is made available for anaylysis, then classification status must remain. A classified report should be given to the government and an unclassified one to media," he said.
"The image must be rooted in scientific facts. The creation of myth surrounding events or persons must be avoided in pursuit of scientific truth," he added.

Form group to probe Pokhran dud claim: N-scientist

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 18 Sep 2009 17:09

guys Now that Fizzle story is looking more plausible(at least at this point of time) What should be our next course of action?How do we rectify the situation and verify our TN weapon in a way that is least damaging to our interests(in terms of international isolation) ?

I can think of the following options.

1.Should we rely only on simulation?

2.can we conduct secret tests?For eg somewhere in Indian Ocean.Special forces can prepare the area covertly if need be.Civilian fishing trawlers/ships/vessels can be used for logistics purposes.In fact there is a rumor floating that Israel in collusion with South Africa conducted such a test.Both were nuclear capable(israel still is) and till date they haven't conducted a single official test.

3.Should we collaborate with countries like israel to verify our designs?

4.Or should we again resort to open testing?

This is truly a catch 22 situation and will require unconventional thinking and actions to rectify it now.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 18 Sep 2009 17:23

Indian scientists actually research inspite of lack of interaction with peers internationally. I can imagine the era when GoI just didn't have to money to allow scientists to interact with peers in the west, moreover those were the days of the 'CIA agent' bogie.
Collaboration with USSR was halaal because the soviets were biradhers, and inexpensive just like the yindoos. (I recall the words of the late guru J N Dixit, 'dono gareeb mulk, ek doosrey ka dukh dard baant rahe they').

In such a mileu, it must have been stifling to continue to do the research, at very little pay and future to look forward to. RAW would have provided some help, but RAW's exploits would have been at best short of brilliant.
I've seen my father's generation soldier on nevertheless, they were the people who safely delivered india intact to this juncture where dreams may soar.

Our scientists fail just like any other. Problem is that our government does not have the cajons to do what is needed to be done. Our netas have their balls in the hands of the videshis because of the skeletons in their closets, they thus have a pressing need to play chanakyan needlessly. Whenever something that's so simple to understand, does not seem to be happening, it means that some chai-biskoot has taken place somewhere.

GoI seems to be forever caught in the trap of protecting the nations today. They fear sanctions that will be brought on today during their rule. They are afraid that the big businesses and the exporters who paid for their elections will lose out in those sanctions, they are afraid that videshi money for re-election will be withheld. This fear is not entirely borne out of an attitude of national service. There is an aspect of personal loss that our netas fear.

GoI needs to have the muscle to raise the middle finger. Now is as good a time as any. Tomorrow the excuse will be we are even more economically intermixed, our leeway will be even lesser. Tomorrow some PM from some nation will simply whisper, don't test or our $10B trade will be affected, we will both lose. This status quo means that we are heading into second rung power status, the delay is bad for india. If this nuclear deal goes away, so be it. There will be another nuclear deal which will follow, as sure as night turns into day. The nuclear deal despite all the good things is just CTBT from the backdoor anyway. Get the uranium that is needed. Grandfather all deals to be in force in perptuity (Just like shitty bitty and En Pee Tea are proposed to be in perpetuity) and go ahead and test for godssake.

MMS should ensure that before he demits office, India has CMD, a weaponized proofed TN, K-xx SLBM with TN MIRVs, the third Arihant class is in the waters.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 18 Sep 2009 17:28

darshan,
I am nowhere related to nuclear science or have deep knowledge. But my gut feeling is that one of the reason this got raised up now is that the scientists and babucracy feel that the TN is rectified and needs proofing before series production can begin, and the Arihant can have its teeth.
I don't think india wants to do any more simulation or subkiloton tests.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 18 Sep 2009 17:35

Gagan wrote:darshan,
I am nowhere related to nuclear science or have deep knowledge. But my gut feeling is that one of the reason this got raised up now is that the scientists and babucracy feel that the TN is rectified and needs proofing before series production can begin, and the Arihant can have its teeth.
I don't think india wants to do any more simulation or subkiloton tests.

I myself feel that scientists have corrected the TN design.But how do we verify.Should we depend only on computer simulations?Should we go for covert testing?(see my earlier post).Should we match our designs with some other nuclear weapon state?Or should we go for open testing?

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 18 Sep 2009 17:50

No computer simulations:
1. There is not enough data. (I think the scientists were trying to make lemonade when they announced they had enough data for simulation, akin to "Ashwathaama haati mara gaya". What the scientists said was "We have enough data for simulations for now" )
2. As per what Shiv-ji wrote, a thermonuclear fusion reaction can't be simulated in parts. It needs high temperature and the x-rays from the primary.
The engineering precision required is supposed to be somewhat unforgiving.

The LIF that Arun_S-saar talks about will also get you there, but that would again be just about.

Nothing like a full yield proof test that verifies both the science and the robustness of the construction of the thing.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 18 Sep 2009 17:59

Again the mere possession of a bomb is not where the story ends. Now you are in the game.

# So you need to test the bomb in various atmospheric conditions.
# You need to test if the bomb will actually survive the journey by a ballistic missile.
# You have to ensure that the bomb is safe, will not go off even if the storage bunker it is stored at catches fire or is targeted by the enemy.
# As the bomb ages is it still reliable? an older bomb needs to be tested for reliability.
# TN weapons have LiD or Tritium, which reportedly degrades. The canister needs to be replaced periodically. Our faujis or scientists will be doing that. There is a need to ensure the bomb will go off as planned after the servicing.
# The bombs need to be PAL-ed to ensure only the leadership can allow their use.

So it is a long haul. And here we are talking about testing to have one perfected.

Finally, if our netas don't have the cajons to even test, do you think they will have the cajons to retaliate with N-weapons should India suffer a first strike?

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 18 Sep 2009 19:15

The most notable feature of this episode is that a so called Nationalist government pulls of a scam on national security and the top notch "BARC" produces a scientist who is not ready to defend or allow second opinion of his work.

In fizlle they have blasted the myth about Indian science and Indian nationalist leaders.

I suggest Ramar Pillai as head of BARC, he was ready to demonstrate his water to oil contraption in front of august audience of APJ...

Now wait and see Dr. Santanam will be given the medicine they gave to Capt Subba Rao