Bharat Rakshak

According to DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources, the al Qaeda offshoot has already carried out one attack:

On Aug. 30, bombs were set off at two Hamas security compounds in the Gaza Strip.

There were no immediate reports of casualties or claims of responsibility for the attacks on the Ansar-2 prison where the central Hamas command is situated and its internal security headquarters in the former Gaza residence of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, whom Hamas deposed in Gaza in 2007.

Suicide bomber Abdullah Asiri had inserted around half a kilogram of explosives into his own body to carry out his failed assassination attempt of Prince Muhammad Bin Naif,

The defence ministry on Monday sought a clarification from the UAE over one of its air force aircraft that had been stopped at the Kolkata airport after it was found to be carrying weapons and explosives.

The ministry got in touch with the UAE embassy to check on the China-bound aircraft. Nine crew members of the plane were interrogated at Kolkata's Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose International Airport.

The Indian Air Force (IAF), Kolkata Police and the Intelligence Bureau (IB) officials interrogated the captain and his eight colleagues. On Sunday evening, the crew was deplaned as the aircraft made an emergency landing for refuelling.

The plane, a C-103 Hercules, was stranded at the Kolkata airport till reports last received and the crew members were awaiting clearance from customs officials before resuming their journey to China.

There was no clarity on how long the customs clearance would take. The aircraft was allegedly carrying arms and explosives in violation of a declaration that allowed them to land for refuelling in the city.

According to reports, the chaos erupted as the plane made an unscheduled stop in Kolkata. The huge cache of explosives was found when the customs officials from Kolkata airport boarded the aircraft for a customary check.

Hezbollah has maintained an ambiguous silence about the report it has had chemical weapons since December 2008, which have been reportedly stored in the Bekaa Valley in northeastern Lebanon, Hezbollah's heartland, and in the south, the main zone of conflict with Israel.

That report was published Thursday by Kuwait's al-Seyasseh newspaper, which opposes the Shiite organization and its mentors, Iran and Syria.

The daily quoted unnamed Western intelligence sources as saying that a suspected Hezbollah arms dump in the southern village of Khirbet Selim that blew up under mysterious circumstances July 14 contained chemical arms.

At least three Hezbollah members died from chemical contamination caused by the explosion, the sources were quoted as saying.

Al-Seyasseh reported that U.N. peacekeepers in south Lebanon found traces of chemical residue in soil samples taken from the site.

The U.N. force has made no comment. But the Israelis have long suspected that Hezbollah, heavily outnumbered and outgunned by Israel's military, was seeking to acquire chemical weapons, as well as air-defense missiles to challenge Israel's long-held aerial dominance.

Despite the alarming reports, Israeli analysts were skeptical that Hezbollah would actually use chemical weapons against the Jewish state.

"Chemical weapons are a doomsday weapon and I don't think Hezbollah will go there," Mordechai Kedar of Tel Aviv's Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies told Israel's Media Line agency.

"I can't see them using chemical weapons against Israel because that would be the end of them. Their objective is to create a state, not eradicate Israel. So the war against Israel is merely a means, not an aim in itself."

It should be noted, however, that Hezbollah calls for the destruction of Israel and the "liberation" of Jerusalem.

Its fighters have conducted suicide attacks in the past and are prepared to do so again. But if Hezbollah used chemical weapons against Israel or its military, that would provoke massive retaliation that could devastate tiny Lebanon.

In a statement released on Tuesday, the ministry said the plane's captain had told Indian customs the plane was carrying arms, ammunition and explosives, but that these had not been mentioned in an initial application.

Authorities at the airport in the country's east held the plane for further investigation.

"The UAE authorities both here and in Abu Dhabi have since formally regretted the omission in clearly indicating items carried by the aircraft and have described it as a 'technical error'," the statement said .

"In the light of the above, the matter will be resolved in the spirit of the close and friendly ties between India and the UAE, and we will facilitate early release of the aircraft."

The detention of the aircraft, that entered its third day on Tuesday, was threatening to turn into a diplomatic row till the UAE authorities apologised.

The Indian customs authorities found a cache of ‘undeclared’ arms and ammunition on board the plane that has been stranded since Sunday night in the eastern city, where it had landed for refuelling. The aircraft’s crew when questioned by the customs authorities said that the arms consignment was on a ‘schedule transit’ to Hanyang in China from Abu Dhabi.

Earlier, the UAE Foreign Ministry’s Director General Juma Al Junaibi, in a statement issued to the WAM news agency in Abu Dhabi late on Monday said the ministry “is in constant contact with the Indian government to follow up the issue.”

He also stressed the deep-rooted relations between the UAE and India and reiterated UAE’s respect for the 
sovereignty of India.

Top government authorities were quoted in Indian media reports as saying the arms consignment was not declared to the customs officers, apparently because of some ‘communication gap’ on the part of the UAE authorities.

India’s customs rules say that if an airplane is carrying such a consignment, and seeks permission to land in India for refueling or any other technical reason, it requires a ‘military clearance’ for transit and 
not a ‘civilian clearance’.

“The UAE airplane did not make such a declaration. The plane was undergoing routine check when it was found that there were arms and ammunition on board,” a Ministry of Defence spokesperson was quoted in media reports. Meanwhile, according to an agency report, India’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday it would help bring about the quick release of the UAE air force plane.

KOLKATA: Part of the cargo that the UAE Air Force C-130 Hercules aircraft, now parked in a remote bay near hangar 14 at Kolkata airport, could be ammunition procured from Egypt. This was allegedly being transported to Xiangyang in China.

This was revealed in a document that the customs department seized from the crew of the aircraft during interrogation. According to this document, an agreement exists between China and UAE through which, the former supplies weapons in return for ammunition from Egypt.

While this may have solved the mystery behind the ammunition in the cargo hold, officials are still not sure about the contents of three metal boxes that were also found. While the crew said that these boxes contained explosives, no details were provided as to their nature. In its report, the customs department has clearly mentioned that the cargo is hot'. This implies that it consists of ammunition and explosives.

In a statement released in Delhi by the external affairs ministry, it has been confirmed that the aircraft is carrying weapons which include "combat" missiles.

The unknown cargo has led to an impass? as India cannot be party to transit or proliferation of any banned material' through its soil. "If the goods in the boxes are illegal, diplomatic immunity will not work despite the friendly relations between the two nations," a source said.

If UAE refuses to disclose the mysterious contents, India may have to cancel the flight plan of the aircraft to China and escort' it back to the edge of Indian airspace over Arabian Sea. Indian Air Force fighter jets may do the escorting through Indian territory. According to defence ministry sources, they have not yet received any instructions to clear the aircraft.

Even as the UAE embassy is trying to pass off the incident as just a faux pas by an inexperienced employee, Indian authorities are trying to find out why the aircraft chose this particular flight path on its way to China.

"The aircraft could easily have flown across Pakistan and the area bordering Afghanistan into China. Did it avoid that route as US forces are active in the area?" an officer wondered.

Indian immigration authorities made it clear on Tuesday that the nine persons who landed in trouble after touching down at Kolkata on Sunday evening could leave if they wished to. But they would have to
take a commercial jet instead of the C-130 Hercules. The team, all confirmed as UAEAF personnel, have
refused to leave the country without the aircraft.

The nine-member team has been stranded in Kolkata for over 60 hours now following the aircraft's seizure by Indian Customs officers on charges of issuing false declaration.

Army intelligence officers are probing the role of a Delhi-based private agency that had made the flight arrangements and organised ground handling by Air India during its touchdown in Kolkata.

uddu wrote:If the aircraft is allowed to leave, then the cargo need to be seized. If the crew has objection, then it's better to jail them.

JEDDAH – The tenure of Prince Bandar Bin Sultan as Secretary General of National Security Council was extended by four years Wednesday.

King Abdullah, Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, issued a Royal Order for the extension. Prince Bandar holds the rank of minister.

shyamd wrote:

uddu wrote:If the aircraft is allowed to leave, then the cargo need to be seized. If the crew has objection, then it's better to jail them.

I dont think there was foul play. Pilot wasn't lying, but the forms weren't done correctly. But customswallah said you didn't declare it before. Its just a stupid mistake. Immigration have said that the crew are free to leave. Its a good time to tell Abu Dhabi that as a gesture of good will, they should transfer terror suspects from DXB (subject to HH Sh. Mohd of Dubai).

Israel was linked to the interception of the missing cargo ship Arctic Sea last month, a senior figure close to Israeli intelligence has told the BBC.

The source said Israel had told Moscow it knew the ship was secretly carrying a Russian air defence system for Iran


...the Israeli source told the BBC that the piracy story was a cover and that Israel told Moscow it was giving officials time to stop the shipment before making the matter public.

...Israeli media are linking the Arctic Sea incident to reports in the Hebrew language daily Yediot Aharonot of a clandestine visit by Mr Netanyahu to Moscow on Monday.

The prime minister's office insisted that he had been visiting a "security installation inside Israel".

MOSCOW, August 10 (RIA Novosti) - A Russian maritime expert said on Monday that "something extraordinary" must have happened to a cargo ship that went missing off Portugal's Atlantic coast.

The Russian maritime journal Sovfracht reported on Sunday that the Arctic Sea dry cargo vessel, expected to arrive at the Algerian port of Bejaia on August 4, was missing.

It said "the vessel literally disappeared on July 28: there has been no communication, and neither the ship-owners nor the relatives [of the crewmembers]...have any information about its whereabouts."

...On July 24, people who claimed to be police stopped the Arctic Sea in the Baltic Sea, tied up the crew and searched the vessel for 12 hours. The Arctic Sea resumed its voyage after they left the ship.

............A young man from Islamabad, a welder, had been offered a job in Medina but on his arrival was told that the factory had been relocated – some 50km down Tabuk highway. It was the middle of nowhere, the factory was an illegal set-up and this welder was the only worker. The little water and food that was delivered fortnightly he had share with the camels and goats.

He tried to talk things over with his employer but it didn't work out. One moonlit night the welder decided to call it a day, walked through the rugged terrain, reached the highway, hitched a ride and surrendered to the police. For a small fee of 500 riyals the police agreed to deport him. Six months have gone past but the welder is still waiting for a passage to Pakistan............


In Jeddah prison I met hundreds of inmates from Burma (Myanmar). Thousands of Burmese Muslims from Arakan – often called Rohingyas – were offered permanent residence in Saudi Arabia by King Faisal but with the change of rulers in Riyadh the rules underwent a change too. The haven of peace that was offered to these refugess is now nothing less than a chamber of horrors.

Sudanese, Nigerians, Erirteans, Ethiopians and Somalis usually go to Saudi Arabia for pilgrimage but with turmoil back home they overstay, do odd jobs, get caught and get deported. African inmates are usually the ones most aware of what's happening around the world. I spotted a number of "Man United for the Cup" graffiti.

Going back to "business" in Saudi prisons, the Burmese Muslims – having been there for around three years – had developed a good working relationship with the guards. They sold soap, shampoo, razors, trousers, shirts, painkillers, toothpaste and other items. Then there were "restaurants" offering biscuits, tea and coffee. Dare-devil young men would recharge mobile phones – for a fee of 10 riyals – by tapping into the electricity wires.

MAKKAH: Six hundred and sixty Chinese nationals working on the Haramain train construction project have embraced Islam in a ceremony in Makkah.

Abdul Aziz Al-Khudhairi, Makkah Governorate Undersecretary, who witnessed the declaration of the shahada described the event as a “direct response to critics of the government for contracting Chinese company.”

“We received hundreds of letters opposing the signing of a contract with the Chinese company and demanding that Muslims be contracted,” Al-Khudhairi said. “Six hundred and sixty of them have now embraced Islam.

Now those who were calling for them to be dismissed are happy at their embracing Islam.

The numbers will also go up, as this is only the beginning, and represents around ten percent of the 5,000 working on the Haramain train.”

Al-Khudhairi demanded that “our conduct reflect the teachings of our religion and our words should match our deeds to have an effect on people”. “We must also respect human rights,” he added.

Meanwhile, as many as 2,722 people have embraced Islam at the Cooperative Office for Call, Guidance and Awareness of Communities in Al-Taif Governorate.

The Office’s Director General Sheikh Mohammed Bin Ibrahim Al-Sawat pointed out that the office has also distributed during that period 1,247,694 copies of the Holy Qur’an, religious books and pamphlets as well as 225, 901 religious cassettes.

pgbhat wrote:MAKKAH: Six hundred and sixty Chinese nationals working on the Haramain train construction project have embraced Islam in a ceremony in Makkah.

......

The numbers will also go up, as this is only the beginning, and represents around ten percent of the 5,000 working on the Haramain train.”

Omani Foreign Minister Yousuf Abdullah ibn Alawi chaired the meeting, which was also attended by GCC Secretary-General Abdul Rahman ibn Hamad Al-Attiyah. Established in the early 1980s, the council includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain.

“All countries of the region should be committed to the principles of good neighborliness and the policy of noninterference in the internal affairs of each other,” the council said in a communiqué at the end of the meeting.

The council also praised the positive results of Chairman of the GCC Summit Sultan Qaboos of Oman’s recent visit to Tehran, adding that it would further enhance security and stability in the region.

.....
The council also lent its support to the sovereignty of the United Arab Emirates over three islands that both the UAE and Iran claim and called for a peaceful settlement to the dispute.

Meanwhile, Al-Alawi told reporters at the end of the meeting that the council had decided to dispatch GCC Secretary-General Abdul Rahman Al-Attiyah to Yemen for consultations with officials there. The Yemeni government is currently fighting Shiite rebels in the north. The secretary-general will also present a report on the results of his visit to the council.

Asked about the attitude of the GCC countries toward the recent incidence in Iran following the presidential elections, Al-Alawi said what was happening in Iran is an internal affair and that GCC countries would never meddle in Iran’s internal affairs.

JEDDAH: Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal has undergone a successful spinal surgery at a hospital in the United States, a Royal Court announcement said on Saturday, adding that the prince would return to the Kingdom shortly after completing the convalescence period. The Saudi Press Agency said Prince Saud had surgery on the vertebrae in his neck. Prince Saud has been the Kingdom’s foreign minister since 1975.

Akshut wrote:
What's wrong with the map?
.
Paki map does not cover full Kashmir, so IMO it's not a Paki trick. Also the color of Kashmir is different from rest of India(light grey vs. dark grey).

Saleh Ali Nabhan, 28, was sought for 11 years on suspicion of taking part in al Qaeda's 1998 attack on the US embassy in Kenya, in which 300 people were killed including 13 Americans, four years later, orchestrating the 2002 bombings of a Mombasa hotel, which left 12 Kenyans and three Israelis dead, and firing a missile at an Israeli airliner carrying tourists to and from Kenya - and missing.

Accounts of the US raid are still confused. Some Somali sources described six helicopters as Monday, Sept. 14 attacking two vehicles in the southern Somali Barawe district, which is controlled by Islamist al-Shabab rebels fighting Mogadishu. Somalia has had no effective central administration since 1991.

A US official confirmed that special forces were flown in by helicopter from a US Navy ship offshore in the Indian Ocean and fired on a vehicle reported to be carrying Nabhan. The body believed to be his was removed.

DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources confirm that the raid was carried out by special forces of the new US African Command - AFRICOM, commanded by Gen. William Ward. Its main mission now was and remains to capture or kill al Qaeda's senior commander in East Africa and the Horn, Muhammad Fazul, who has come very near to being caught more than once in recent years.

Some witnesses of the raid said the helicopters and commandos were French, although the French military denied any involvement in the helicopter raid. The al-Shaba, which is closely linked with al Qaeda, are holding one of two French agents kidnapped in July. The second managed to escape. The US and France both have troops stationed in neighboring Djibouti.

Illus: P K Job
M P Prashanth
First Published : 17 Sep 2009 01:19:00 AM IST
Last Updated : 17 Sep 2009 07:58:07 AM IST

KOZHIKODE: The distance education centres of some universities in Kerala, situated in west Asian countries, have become recruiting centres of the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI).

Sources told Express that some of these centres were managed by C A M Basheer, one of the most wanted terrorists operating from the Gulf countries. He recently shifted his base from Sharjah to Riyadh in Saudi Arabia when the intelligence agencies tracked down his hub. Security agencies suspect that Basheer still frequents the state using a Canadian passport. Sources said the SIMI network was very active in West Asia.

Youngsters who join the distance education institutes are lured into the network. They later become modules of the network which operates in India with the active support of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and Harkat- ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI).

It may be recalled that the the email message sent to some media organisations in the state from an obscure outfit called Malabar Mujahid had its origin in Sharjah.

The sender, who introdued himself as the commander of the outfit, threatened to orchestrate blasts in Kerala if the demands of the organisation were not met. Sarfaras Nawas, who was picked up from Muscat for his involvement in the Bangalore blasts, has detailed the working of the SIMI network in the Gulf countries. (We really have to thank His Majesty Sultan Qaboos bin Said, Lt. General Malek Bin Sulaiman Al Ma'amari (head of the Royal Police in Oman) for shutting down the Lashkar network in Oman and handing over Sarfraz Nawaz)

It was the Malayali SIMI network in the Gulf that enabled him to contact the Lashkar operatives and seek their help for operations in India.

Security agencies have identified another SIMI activist from the State who is a vital figure in the terror network.

A former student of a private college in Malappuram, he was the one who arranged a meeting of bomb expert E T Sainudheen and Indian Mujahideen leader Riyaz Bhatkal at Kuttippuram in Malappuram. It was after the meeting that Sainudheen made the bombs suspectedly used in the Delhi blasts in 2008. The person believed to have shown the path of jihad to Sainudheen is now operating from Dubai. (You will not get this guy arrested. Sheikh Mo is not supportive of India's anti terror drive. Only way I suppose is Gandhi scions speak to him whom he deeply respects.)

The non-cooperation shown by some of the governments in West Asia is proving a major hindrance in busting the SIMI modules there. (i.e KSA, UAE)

Many of the governments are hostile to Indian intelligence agencies, who work through diplomatic channels.

The leaders of the module operate in these countries for years with complete impunity.

An Iranian rebuff would carry a price

At the same time, the US administration signaled that a rebuff would carry stiff penalties. Sending Sultan Qaboos away empty-handed, namely with a negative reply or no a date for negotiations to begin, would set in motion a negative process consisting of four steps:

First: Last week, a string of top security and intelligence US officials, led by defense secretary Robert Gates and national security adviser James Jones, touched down in Israel for conferences on a coordinated bid to build up the military pressure on Iran.

(More details about US military planning appear in a separate item in this issue.)

The week was capped on Friday, July 31, with the arrival of Saudi foreign minister Prince Saud al-Faisal in Washington.

Although Saud confined his comments after talking with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to a blunt rejection of the US President's request for ties with Israel, his closed-door meetings with US officials and military and intelligence officers focused on Riyadh's real worry, Iran and its nuclear drive. He was given a briefing on the White House's new three-point policy on Iran, best defined as: First: Political engagement, Second: Sanctions, Third, but not last: Military Confrontation.

Monday, August 3, the Pentagon announced through US Air Force spokesman Andy Bourland: "The Air force and Department of Defense are looking at ways to accelerate" the deployment of the giant bunker buster bomb called Massive Ordnance Penetrator and put it into service by July 2010, which is to say, within a year.

Shortly after this notice, the Times of London citing intelligence sources reported that it would take Iran six months to enrich enough uranium and another six months to assemble the warhead for mounting on its long-range Shehab-3 missile.

The industry was only waiting for supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's go-ahead for the first bomb to be produced.

The estimated target date for the accelerated US bunker buster's deployment tallies closely therefore with the timeline for Iran's prospective nuclear capability.

US could manage tighter sanctions unilaterally

The next development, Tuesday, Aug. 4, was another leaked report, this one to The New York Times, revealing that the US was talking to several European allies about restricting sales of gasoline and other refined petroleum extracts to Iran if it refused to discuss its nuclear program. Israel was briefed on this by Jones. Washington was said to be mulling sanctions against companies which supply Iran with 40 percent of its gasoline, cutting off their exports to the US and freezing their financial and shipping insurance.

Since Iran lacks the refinery capacity for supplying its gasoline needs, these sanctions could cripple its economy and undercut its regime.

The reports did not address the question of whether or not Russia and China would endorse such sanctions - for good reason, DEBKA-Net-Weekly Washington sources report: Administration strategists have concluded that the US can go it alone in the first stages of a gasoline and petrol product embargo, without resorting to the UN Security Council or running the gauntlet of Russian and Chinese vetoes.

In any event, US experts do not believe a total embargo on all Iran's imports to be feasible in its early stages and would hope to cut down no more than around half.

On the plus said, they also estimate that while Russia and China will not want to participate in the embargo, neither would they want to be seen openly busting one at the risk of serious fallout in their diplomatic and economic relations with the US.

Furthermore, if the US decides to raise its sanctions to a full naval blockade of Iran, Russian naval support would suffice without Chinese help. Washington may therefore break dramatically with historic precedent and seek US-Russian naval cooperation in the Persian Gulf for imposing such a blockade. Moscow would then have to choose between siding with the United States and continuing its ties with Iran. (The two articles below are linked to the issue IMO.)

In the second half of his first year in office, President Obama is therefore discerned to have embarked on a frankly independent foreign policy. He appears to be willing to embark on solo action without resorting to the UN Security Council or other nations, be they friendly or not.

Obama's cards on the table for Tehran - and Pyongyang

The US president is not proposing to take unilateralism to the same extremes as did his predecessor George W. Bush when he prepared to fight in Afghanistan and Iraq from 2001-2003, but the go-it-alone tendency is jelling at the core of his external and security policies.

It was noted by the Israelis in last week's conversations with Gates and Jones and also by other Middle East leaders. The two US officials emphasized that Iran and its nuclear program were America's call. Their message was: Leave handling Iran to the US which accepts its responsibility as a world power to solve such problems - up to and including military solutions.

(A separate item in this issue examines Obama's attempts to stop a nuclear arms race in Middle East and Asia).

The heads of the Iranian Islamic Republic now have a full picture of what the Obama administration has in store for them if Sultan Qaboos fails to bring Tehran to the negotiating table on their nuclear program. The penalties have been thrust up front: harsh new sanctions leading to a possible military confrontation - not just with Israel but with the United States.

In the first half of 2009, Iran stood on the sidelines and watched as Washington stood by and let North Korea get away with another nuclear test and multiple ballistic missiles tests. Now, US officials reckon Tehran and Pyongyang will switch roles. The North Koreans will stand by as observers to see how matters shape up between Washington and Tehran. Before determining their own course, they will want to see whether Tehran opts for the path of concessions and accommodation or adopts a hard line at the risk of a diplomatic collision leading to unilateral US sanctions and a possible transition into a limited military showdown?

The cards are now on the table.

Two answers, tough choices

The Obama administration hoped Bill Clinton would have a message to deliver from Pyongyang, along with the two American women he rescued on Wednesday, Aug. 5 from a North Korean jail where they were held for illegally crossing the Chinese-North Korean border. In seeking - and obtaining - a pardon for the women from Kim Jong-Il, Clinton was also after the North Korean leader's consent to his suspend nuclear and missile activity and return to the Six-Party forum with China, the US, South Korea, Japan and Russia to negotiate the termination of this activity. It was restarted at the Yongbyon nuclear facilities when Kim broke off talks in April 2009.

The White House is now on tenterhooks for answers from Pyongyang and Tehran as reported by the former US president and the Omani ruler. Those answers could saddle the Obama administration with some hard options regarding the next stage of US policy on the interlinked Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs.

Less Is More for Military Strike on Iran
US Could Manage to Knock out Iran's Nuclear Sites with Missiles (and a Few Bunker Busters)


In a striking reversal of conventional thinking, US military and intelligence leaders are talking in incredibly minimal terms about the size of the strength required to knock out Iran's nuclear facilities and disable its elite Revolutionary Guards Corps. The dimensions bruited about in Washington today would be unrecognizable to Bush administration strategists.

The main principles of the military doctrine still on the Obama administration's drawing board are outlined here by DEBKA-Net-Weekly's exclusive military and Washington sources:

1. Iran's Arab neighbors and Israel do not need a US defense umbrella against a possible Iranian missile attack because the Islamic Republic's missile arsenal will be destroyed on the ground or immediately after launch.

The Obama administration appears to have gone back on the US secretary of state Hillary Clinton's pledge of a defense umbrella for the Middle East against Iran's nuclear threat, a pledge which was taken to imply US acceptance of a nuclear-armed Iran.

Clinton denied this, saying she adhered to the current policy involving a mix of diplomatic outreach to Iran and sanctions, but suggested that US officials were looking ahead in case this approach failed.

But in the last few days, US officials have pointedly omitted reference to the defense umbrella concept in their briefings to regional leaders.

2. The United States can make do with the ground, air and naval forces already present in the Gulf region for disrupting, scuttling or crippling Iran's nuclear program. They consist of some 15,000 troops backed by a single aircraft carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan, which cruises in the Gulf of Oman, plus the air force and missile strength waiting in bases across the region and in Iraq.



Missiles (and a few bunker busters) could wipe out Iran's nuclear sites



3. Gone are the days, as recent as early 2008, when at least four aircraft carriers were considered essential for an American military strike against Iran. Their restless movements in and out of Gulf waters were the barometer for rising and falling tensions.

Obama administration strategists believe the present US strength centering on the Fifth Fleet, which is headquartered in Bahrain and includes only one carrier, is quite capable of contending with any Iranian military, aerial or naval menace to Gulf nations, the Middle East or the Straits of Hormuz oil routes to West Europe and Japan.

The new doctrine states that at its current strength, the Fifth Fleet would be able to reopen the Straits of Hormuz within 36 to 48 hours after it is blocked by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, whether by ships, deep- sea mines, or both.

4. Very few warplanes - just the B-2 stealth bombers carrying MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) bunker busters - would be needed to smash Iran's nuclear installations. Most of the work would be left to missiles launched from a distance. There would be no need to land troops on Iranian soil.

Gone and forgotten are the former US estimates that given the dispersion of Iran's nuclear sites across a large country, only vast air capabilities on a scale which only the US can muster, could wipe them all out and even then, it would take a heavy two-to-three week blitz.

Nuclear Chill Is His Top Order of Business


US President Barack Obama's Middle East peace round table project is taking shape. DEBKA-Net-Weekly sources in Washington report that the White House his preparing his winter trip to the Middle East for some time between November 2009 and January 2010 to wind up his first year as president.

Nothing is final, but Obama would like to kick off his tour in Damascus followed by trips to Jerusalem, Ramallah and, then, Amman, Jordan.

Depending on security considerations, he may squeeze Beirut between the Syrian and Israeli capitals. He would become the first US president to visit Syria or Lebanon. A second visit to Cairo would depend on whether Hosni Mubarak is still president by the end of the year.

(See separate article on Mubarak's plans for stepping down.)

The year's-end Obama tour will be billed as the inauguration of a historic process for ushering in peace between Israel and its neighbors, Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinians. It will be launched at a multinational conference, which the US president will ceremonially open (as we reported in the last issue of DEBKA-Net-Weekly, No. 407 of July 31.)

Its agenda will also cover the issues of arms control and water-sharing in the Middle East.

The centrality of the Syrian-Israeli peace track will depend on Syrian president Bashar al-Assad proving he has severed his ties with Tehran and stopped supplying Hizballah with arms. In that case, Washington will move into a more active role.


US calms Middle East concerns: Iran's nuclear program is on hold

Obama's intermediaries on the Syrian track will be special presidential envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell and his staff, headed by Fred Hoff, who for years quietly kept America's backdoor open for contacts with Syria's political and intelligence establishments.

But the US president's top priority is preventing a nuclear arms race from developing in the Middle East and his administration is already working hard towards this goal. Washington hopes that its tough new policy for Iran (as outlined in the previous article) will hold the race in check until the president visits the region.

Their efforts focus on three directions:

1. Allaying worries in Gulf, Middle East and Israeli capitals about the Iranian nuclear threat;
2. Direct pressure on them to refrain from nuclear program start-ups or building atomic reactors;
3. US disincentives for providers of nuclear equipment, especially in Europe, to deter them from selling their wares to any Middle East client.

To ease concerns, US emissaries are hawking around the region intelligence input as evidence that Iran has not accelerated the pace of uranium enrichment either at Natanz or any of the sites under the control of the Iranian Defense ministry's secret agency Amad (Supply in Farsi). This unit is headed by Mohsin Fakhri Zadeh, a physics professor and senior member of the Revolutionary Guards Corps Council.

After enriching 1,010 kilograms of uranium to 3.9 percent, sufficient for 30 kilograms of weapons-grade (95 percent) fuel, the Iranians are able to build "only" one bomb, say the US envoys.

Furthermore, the Americans deduce from two pointers that Tehran is not at present trying to build a stockpile of bombs and warheads:

First: Centrifuge production for speeding uranium enrichment has not increased;

Second: No signs of nuclear collaboration between Iran and Pakistan are visible in Tehran or Islamabad. Therefore, Iran has not turned to Pakistan for aid and advice for expediting its program.

Jimmy Mubarak is determined to bring nuclear power to Egypt



According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Middle East sources, Washington has sent out warnings to Arab rulers and Israel in the last fortnight to avoid "sudden and imprudent" actions for acquiring nuclear assets for fear of jerking Tehran into switching its program to fast forward.

We are in a very delicate stage of the nuclear arms race, explained the Americans, and any sudden move could upset the region's nuclear status quo.

In general, Washington is saying that while Iran has mastered the technology for building nuclear bombs and warheads, its rulers have not yet decided to go into production. The US believes this go-ahead will remain in abeyance for a year or two - or more - just as long as no one rocks the boat by redrawing the region's nuclear landscape.

According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly intelligence sources, the US secretly approached Egypt and Jordan with a request to suspend their plans for building nuclear reactors. President Mubarak, in particular was asked to stop work on five nuclear power plants at Inshas, near Alexandria. This placed him in a quandary. The Egyptian president is in the process of retiring and handing the presidency over to his son Gemal (Jimmy), who has made the nuclear power plants project his pet scheme.

(The next article discusses this transition)

Three years ago, in September 2006, Gemal Mubarak told the general convention of the ruling National Democratic Party: "The whole world — I don’t want to say all, but many developing countries — have proposed and started to execute the issue of alternative energy,” he said. “It is time for Egypt to put forth, and the party will put forth, this proposal for discussion about its future energy policies, the issue of alternative energy, including nuclear energy, as one of the alternatives.”

He added a sly dig at the Bush White House: “We do not accept visions from abroad that try to dissolve the Arab identity and the joint Arab efforts within the framework of the so-called Greater Middle East Initiative.”

The incoming Egyptian president is now being asked to conform with President Obama's new Middle East policy, especially on nuclear restraint.

.....DEBKAfile reports that Barack Obama's decision prompted Russian president Dmitry Medvedev's surprise comment Monday, Sept. 14, that his government no longer rules out further sanctions against Iran - although the Kremlin has always denied its cooperation with the US on the Iranian nuclear issue was contingent on the removal of the US missile shield plan.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly in its coming issue (out Friday) will reveal how the shared US-Russian wish to avert an Israeli military strike against Iran produced Obama's decision to ditch the missile shield in East Europe.

Our Washington sources report that the decision follows a 60-day assessment of the issue ordered by Obama. "The US will base its decision on a determination that Iran's long-range missile program has not progressed as rapidly as previously estimated, reducing the threat to the continental US and major European capitals," said unnamed current and former US officials.

On Aug. 29, DEBKAfile reported exclusively from East European sources that Washington was considering the transfer of its missile plan from Poland and the Czech Republic possibly to Israel and Turkey. Click HERE

This decision is an important foreign policy step for Obama; it is a prize for Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin, who fought the US shield plan on Russia's doorstep tooth and nail, and a major strategic reversal for Iran.

Moscow's cooperation would remove a key obstacle on the road to harsh sanctions against Iran. Acting in concert with Moscow, Washington could dispense with Beijing's endorsement.

Nonetheless, DEBKAfile's Moscow sources stress, it is not entirely clear how far the Kremlin is willing to go in partnering the US drive against Iran. Russian leaders will take good care not to appear to the Muslim and Arab world as Iran's enemy or a trading and diplomatic partner who reneges on its commitments.

Deputy US army chief, Gen. James Cartwright and defense secretary Robert Gates amplified President Barack Obama's statement on the US missile shield in East Europe in Washington Thursday, Sept. 17, by announcing that a new and better anti-missile missile system would be deployed in Israel and the Caucasus.

DEBKAfile discloses exclusively that the system would be installed at a Russian military base in Azerbaijan. Referring to the Israeli component, he said: "It is already working perfectly."

DEBKAfile's military sources disclose he was referring to the advanced American FBX-T radar system deployed last year in Israel's Negev base at Nevatim, which is capable of tracking a missile launched from the Persian Gulf, the Middle East and beyond. The system, product of Raytheon, is mobile and capable of detecting incoming bodies the size of a baseball from a distance of 4,700 km, determining its speed and angle of flight and transmitting the data to an interceptor at any point on earth.

A senior US military official summarily dismissed rumors of a coup in Qatar on Wednesday, Aug. 5, saying: "We have no evidence to corroborate this."

The question was put to him after various Arab news websites reported that senior Qatari military officers had been sacked after failing to overthrow the ruler, Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani.

According to the liberal Saudi Alssiyasi, Qatar's chief of staff Hamad bin Ali Al-Attiya may have been involved in the coup attempt.

The Jordanian online daily Al-Haqiqa Al-Douliya claimed that after the failed putsch, the Emir of Qatar was considering curtailing the powers of senior regime officials, including prime minister and foreign minister Hamad bin Jasem Aal Thani.

The London-based Elaph website reported disagreements on foreign policy among top Qatari officials after its chief of staff's visit to Tehran a month ago.

(Elaph was launched in 2001 by Saudi journalist and businessman Osman el-Omeir, former editor-in-chief of the moderate, pan-Arab, London-based Al-Sharq Al-Awsat daily)

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's intelligence and Gulf sources are able to confirm that an attempt to oust the Qatari ruler did in fact take place in the past two weeks during which mass arrests were staged under his personal supervision. The chief of staff was indeed taken into custody along with about 40 officers loyal to him who took part in the plot. Also arrested were five members of the Emir's personal guard, a measure of how deeply the conspirators had infiltrated his closest circles.

At least 20 princes of the al-Thani family are under house arrest, suspected of involvement to one degree or another in the plot.



Washington: Stop cozying up to Tehran



According to our information, the plotters planned to take advantage of one of the Emir's frequent trips to Switzerland to seize the royal palace in Doha when his plane took off and announce his deposition.

There is nothing new for Qatar in this method of usurping power; in 1995, the incumbent ruler, then Crown Prince, ascended the throne himself by deposing his father.

He has since become notable for introducing some liberal reforms.

Why the tiny principality of no more than 800,000 souls was beset by an attempted coup at this time is not clear. Motives range from a succession struggle to a contest for influence in this strategically important emirate among pro-US, pro-Saudi and pro-Iranian elements.

The emirate's three dominant clans are traditional rivals.

The al-Thani clan has produced the Emir and prime minister. The Emir's influential wife Sheikha Moza bint Nasser belongs to the al-Misnad clan. She is considered one of the most beautiful women in the Gulf region. The al-Attiya family holds senior positions in the Qatari military and security services.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Gulf sources say that several motives may have combined to create the conditions for a putsch.

Our military and Washington sources report that in early May, the Obama administration warned Qatar's rulers that if they don't stopping building up their ties with Iran, the US would evacuate its big military headquarters at Al Udeid near the capital.

(A separate article in this issue reveals the transfer has begun of some US military facilities from al-Udeid to Talil in Iraq.)



Court intrigue masquerading as foreign policy



Heeding the US warning, the Emir took Qatar's foreign relations out of the hands of prime minister Hamad bin Jasem al-Thani and passed the portfolio to his son, Misnad, who embarked on steps for placating the Americans, the Saudis and the Egyptians. They were informed that Doha would chill its relations with Tehran and withdraw its cooperation with the Islamic Republic on Lebanese and Palestinian affairs.

Prince Misnad is the son of the beautiful Moza. The concentration of great power in his hands caused the other al-Thani princes to suspect that the pro-Western/Arab shift in the Emir's policy was intended to pave the way for strengthening Prince Misnad's position as heir.

This would account for the house arrests imposed on a large group of princes accused of involvement in the coup attempt.

Despite the Qatari ruler's bid to placate the US, his army chief visited Iran early July, which would indicate that the ruling families of Doha are still in the throes of a power struggle.

None of this stops the heads of this tiny, albeit vastly wealthy, monarchy from behaving like a big power.

In mid-July, the Qatar Investment Authority took control of a 17% stake in Volkswagen AG.

This week, on August 4, Qatar announced plans to build a huge indoor stadium to advance its bid to host the 2022 FIFA Football World Cup.

The next high-profile raid took place in the least likely of places, on the island nation of Madagascar. In January 2007, US commandos struck at Mohammed Jamal Khalifa, one of Osama bin Laden's brother-in-laws with deep roots in al Qaeda as a financier and facilitator, as he visited his home there.

US intelligence had waited for Khalifa to leave the safety of Saudi Arabia and targeted him when he was most vulnerable, US intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal. The raid was made to look like a robbery; Khalifa's computer and other documents were stolen.

In a CNN interview Sunday, Sept. 20, Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said "Israeli colleagues" had told him they are not planning to attack Iran. He confirmed Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu had visited Moscow two weeks ago and had also met with him, but asked to keep the visit secret.

When Israeli President [Shimon] Peres was visiting me in Sochi recently, he said something very important for all of us: 'Israel does not plan any strikes on Iran, we are a peaceful country and we will not do this'," according to Medvedev.
DEBKAfile adds: Unless Medvedev's assertion is denied by Jerusalem, the Israel government has abandoned its military option to pre-empt a nuclear-armed Iran, but neglected to inform the Israeli public of this radical change of policy. For nine months, Prime minister Netanyahu has insisted that halting Iran's attainment of a nuclear weapon, even by military means, was his highest mission as prime minister.

According to the Kremlin transcript, the Russian president said: My Israeli colleagues told me they are not planning to act in this way and I trust them." he said. Although Russia has no defense agreement with Iran, "this does not mean we would be indifferent to such an occurrence…"

These words indicate that the Kremlin is not absolutely sure that Israel has indeed abandoned a possible strike against Iran and is holding an implicit threat of Russian military intervention over Israel's head - just in Regarding the contract Russia signed two years ago to sell Iran S-300 air defense missile systems Medvedev said that "any supplies of any weapons, especially defensive weapons, cannot increase tension; on the contrary, they should ease it." Israel has repeatedly protested this sale as a boost to the defense of Iran's nuclear sites. His words indicate that Moscow intends to go through with the sale to Iran and possibly Syria too.

"Iran must cooperate with the IAEA, this is absolutely obvious, if it wishes to develop its nuclear dimension, its nuclear energy program. This is a duty and not a matter of choice," said the Russian president. He made no mention of possible cooperation with Washington in arresting Iran's nuclear program or imposing harsh sanctions on Tehran.

shyamd wrote: ----------
Kuwait is also thinking along the same lines as KSA, the royal family feel that they are over reliant on Washington.

India is going to have the biggest opportunity to extend its sphere of influence massively in the ME over the next 5 years and position itself as a powerful power.

shyamd wrote: So he entrusted the project to Bandar, who reportedly is camping in Moscow.

Russia may also construct nuclear power plants in the Kingdom. Bandar has been personally offering russian engineers working in Bushehr 3 times the salary they are getting, if they return to Moscow.

shyamd wrote:I am sure, if he read your statement. He would give the famous " SO What!".