RajeshG wrote:So the barometer for the health of TSP would be the legitimacy of Islam as a governing system and identity within TSP. This is what TSPians identify with.
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But here in the present day TSP, we have a core which absolutely would swear by Islam and Islamic governance. So failure of TSP would be when a significant chunk of population stops identifying with Islam. That would be a failure of TSP.
There is some confusion, as to what constitutes
"Failure of Pakistan". I'd like to contribute to that confusion.
For there to be a failure of something, there must be a mission statement. For Pakistan, I would consider a potential mission statement to be:
Pakistan is a collective of humans within a geographical space with the goal of furthering Islam.
So all the vectors of failure would be:
1)
Humans (Nature) - If humans are to be understood as biological entities, then except for the Pindi Chana Gas, and some Foreskin Loss, Pakistanis are humans. But if humanity also constitutes an aspect of humans, then the increasing barbarity of the people in Pakistan, towards self and through terrorism towards others, the retrogression, is a sign of failure.
2)
Humans (Survival) - Population-wise Pakistanis are gold medalists. Within a 100 years, they would have increased their population 10 fold. However the resources are limited - food, water and medical care. Considering that Pakistan will be facing a water problem in the near future and their revenue generation is pathetic, there will be a decreasing capacity to feed the populace. Famine could function as a limiting factor. So too can medical care. With growing Talibanism, and flight of qualified medical personnel, new viruses, and little money, the health of the Pakistani nation can also take a beating. However right now, there is no failure to be observed in this aspect. Also Baitullah (RIP) has left too early.
3)
Humans (Quality of Living) - The quality of living could be judged by water and power availability, by purchasing capacity of the individual, by levels of education, and other HDI. As the distribution of resources in Pakistan is getting ever more skewed, a small elite seems to be in control of ever bigger portions of the economy. So for the majority of Pakistanis, the quality of living, would take a hit, despite the new consumer goods available in the market. Agricultural losses, standstill in manufacturing, inflation, population explosion will all contribute to the fact that mango abduls standard of living would plummet from year to year. So here one can speak of approaching failure.
4)
Collective (Adhesion) - Even as a newborn, the unity of Pakistan was a huge challenge. Islam was to provide the glue. This can be useful if there are substantial minorities, which pose a challenge. As the minorities in Pakistan have decreased to about 4% and they have stopped revolting against the order of Islam, Islam has lost its significance as an adhesive. The inner-tensions within the Muslims become more prominent. In order to overcome ethnic and sectarian divisions, there are several methods applied.
One could try homogenization, i.e. one could try to suppress the sectarian divisions, either by resorting to favoring one sect and suppressing all others. This is the Deobandization and subsequent Wahhabization of Pakistan, and it is being tried. The other method would have been to completely ease the tensions between the sects, but in a one-path ideology like that of Islam, inner-sectarian tension is built-in.
As far as ethnicities are concerned, the gulf between them has only increased. All are feeling alienated from the powerful Punjabi majority. The Baluchis are fighting for their own country. The Pushtuns under the garb of Talibanism are already T-10 years from having their own Pushtunistan. The Sindhis are feeling restless because of water shortages and distrust of Punjabis. The homogenization at the ethnicity level would not work here that well, because Muslims in Pakistan tend to marry within the extended family.
So the only salvation for Pakistan as a collective is through sectarian homogenization and a strong authoritarian hand over the sect. The continued Talibanization of Pakistan allows them to score on this point, but on the whole the growing ethnic gulf would start tearing Pakistan apart. Also the Talibanism adhesive being tried, could cut through society like an acid and also prove destructive. Major failure approaching here, unless Talibanism succeeds.
5)
Collective (Functioning) - The administrative capacity of Pakistan seems to be from reports in free-fall. Nepotism, cronyism, corruption, system of entitlement, bad governance, brain-drain, resources crunch, everything is going to compound failure in this aspect. So major wreck expected here. Even if there is a revolution and Taliban come to power, the resource crunch would not dissipate.
6)
Collective (Leadership) - The life-expectancy of RAPE class is approaching its end. The next in line, the Taliban have not yet assumed power. It is a stage of transition, which could well take another 20 years. So the leadership of the collective is going to transit to a group with radically different cornerstones. So whereas the transition itself does not constitute failure, the question arises about the capacity of the new power structure to ensure both the adhesive and the functioning of the collective. Adhesion would be based on fear and conformity. The functioning however may collapse. The RAPEs were in one way capable and resourceful. After all they have provided leadership to Pakistan for the last 63 years, and their HDI are not that much different than those of India. Would the Taliban have the capacity to administer 309 million people and provide them with food, water, power, jobs and justice. I doubt it. So a failure here is preprogrammed.
7)
Collective (Solvency) - Pakistan has both nuclear weapons as well as the largest manufacturing capacity to create Jihadis. For fear or for national interest, some countries have decided to invest in Pakistan. Since 2001 Pakistan has been able to generate revenue from this support base to the tune of billions of US dollars. This revenue flowed in connection with the American GWOT, from anti-Indian alliance with PRC, from Oil money of Saudi Arabia and UAE. In fact, it is known that no single country can keep Pakistan afloat, so all are trying to share the burden.
But revelations in America about Pakistan duplicity, scaling down and withdrawal from Afghanistan, waning of financial muscle of America would all contribute to the fact, that America will not be wiling to bear the whole burden of keeping Pakistan solvent. PRC is willing to help only on project basis and in security field. Saudi Arabian Oil would probably see its last days in the next 25 years. The combined willingness and capacity to keep Pakistan alive by external patrons would decrease.
Secondly the growing Talibanism and Global Jihadism would make it all the more difficult for these countries to cough up the moolah.
Also the expectation that Pakistan suddenly changes into a highly productive society is nil. The external debt keeps on increasing. So there is going to be major failure on this question in the next 15-20 years.
Geographical Space (Borders) - In 1971 Pakistan has already been bifurcated. The Pushtuns separating from Pakistan is only a matter of time, this is going to be especially so, as Pakistan reaches the economic doldrums. Already the state control only extends to about 40-50% of Pakistan, and this will steadily worsen. Failure on this score is expected by many, but it may be a couple of decades in coming.
9)
Geographical Space (Location) - Pakistan has created a Frankenstein's Monster in the form of a very aggressive strain of Pushtun. The Pakistanis would be losing their West. It is questionable how long they would also be able to hold on to Baluchistan, as the Army gets tied down in the heartland, fighting against the Pakjabi Taliban groups. So should Pakistan either lose Baluchistan or PoK, it will signal the end of Pakistan's strategic geographic location.
The security situation in Baluchistan, on the route from Karachi to Afghanistan, and in PoK to a large extent also influence the worth of strategic location of Pakistan.
External factors like an alternate access route from IOR to Central Asia through Iran could also decrease Pakistan's worth. Similarly a warming up of relations between USA and Russia could also change the dynamic.
10)
Furthering Islam (By conquest) - Pakistan was able to take away a big chunk of Indic Civilization away from it. That was a roaring success of Pakistan's mission statement. However, Pakistan has in the last 63 years made no progress on this score in India. It has been able to radicalize the Kashmir Valley youth, but that in itself does not constitute success, and there is little chance for Pakistan to either capture Kashmir Valley or do Ghazwa-e-Hinds.
Also it is debatable whether Pakistan has acquired strategic depth in Afghanistan through their Taliban proxies, or whether they will lose land in the end. But Islam has triumphed in Southern Afghanistan nevertheless, so it is a measure of Pakistan's success.
Other places which Pakistan could claim as successes are places like Britain and Norway, where their kin have expanded and contributed in the Islamization or Population Export. On the whole, slight success here.
11)
Furthering Islam (By Purification) - Here Pakistan seems to be a roaring success. The Kafirs are being forced into Islam, the Sufis are becoming Deobandis, and Deobandis are becoming Wahabandis. Wahabandis are taking up the cause of Jihad. High success rate.
12)
Furthering Islam (By Emulation) - On this score, the Pakistanis have been complete failures. In fact Pakistanis have brought so much disrepute to Islam world-wide, that there will be few who would want to convert to Islam. Pakistan has made it difficult for the soft missionaries and Sufis to sell their wares about Religion of Peace, and Respect for Women. Most converts that Islam is getting right now is from prison populations, but for that the judicial systems in the other countries are responsible and not necessarily the message of Islam. In the age of Internet taqiyya becomes far more difficult. So a total failure on this score.
13)
Furthering Islam (By Plunder) - Since Pakistan has nuclear weapons, it has been very deft in extracting concessions from neighbors and from the various powers. The money that USA now pumps into Pakistan is indeed a sign that Pakistan has been able to live up to this aspect of Islam.
14)
Furthering Islam (By Prosperity) - AoA here that Pakistan was not given unlimited Oil deposits, like other Arabs and Persians. Without it, Pakistan has shown little productive capacity and ability to expand Islam using money, like Saudis do it. Total failure here!
So in some aspects Pakistan is a major failure, in others a major wreck waiting to happen while in others it has also had successes.
JMTs
