Libyan War : Political and strategic aspects

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Aug 2011 02:34

Its not the religion but the ideology.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 02 Aug 2011 05:02

but, isn't it the "religion" that fuels the "ideology?" you cannot separate the two. there is no point in getting stuck in a 'chicken eats egg' argument. ultimately, the religion plays an integral part in promoting vested imperial interests.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 02 Aug 2011 06:37

Devesh ji, when you call something ideology it becomes secular and kosher for public consumption. We have to be mindful of al-bramans among ourselves.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 02 Aug 2011 07:11

^^^
yes, for tactical reasons it might be necessary to play taqiya games, at least in the initial stages of identifying the enemy. but eventually, once a decent portion of the population wakes up to and understands the danger, active identification will be required.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 03 Aug 2011 07:49

Libyan Transitional Council Rebels in Total Disarray

By Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya

Global Research, August 2, 2011

TRIPOLI, August 1, 2011. The Muslim holy month of Ramadan has seen no end to fighting inside Libya. NATO has intensified its bombardment of Tripoli and other major cities. Tens of thousands of fliers have been dropped by NATO from the skies asking the Libyan military to surrender.

The social momentum in Libya against NATO and its illegitimate Transitional Council has been picking up speed. Mass opposition to the rebels is building up in rebels’ stronghold Benghazi

Following the assassination of General Abdel Fattah Al-Younes, the commander of the Transitional Council’s armed forces, further divisions within the rebellion have unfolded; the tide has changed dramatically in Benghazi.

The Obeide tribe, which is the tribe of General Younes, has taken arms against the Transitional Council. Mustafa Abdel Jalil, the chairman of the Transitional Council, faced gunfire in his hotel where he held a press conference announcing the death of General Al-Younes. Jalil claimed that the body was lost and made many contradictory statements. He stated that Al-Younes had been arrested for questioning and then was attacked and shot. In reality he was murdered by Transitional Council members tied directly to Washington. His son Ashraf Al-Younes has demanded that the legitimate government in Tripoli bring stability to Benghazi.

There are unconfirmed reports that the chairman of the Transitional Council, Mahmoud Jibril, has fled to Egypt to seek the protection of Field Marshal Tantawi and the Egyptian military junta.

At this point, revolts have broken out against the Transitional Council in cities until their control. Benghazi, Darnah, and Tobruk have all witnessed a social uprising of the local population against NATO and the armed gangs of the Transitional Council.

On July 31 clansmen from Warfallah joined the revolt against the Transitional Council in Benghazi. Some of them took up arms and others demonstrated demanding an end to the illegitimate rule of the Transitional Council. NATO helicopters intervened, directly targeting the demonstrators. According to reports, about 160 Warfallah clansmen were killed at a peaceful indoor gathering focusing on political actions and group efforts to oust the Transitional Council. The exact figures of those killed by NATO inside Benghazi are unconfirmed. Their bodies were not returned. They are believed to have been buried in unmarked mass graves.

Qatari troops are also on the ground and there is visual confirmation of Qatari armored vehicles inside Benghazi. A Qatari armored vehicle has also been caught on tape in Benghazi fighting against Libyans trying to liberate the city from NATO and TC armed gangs.

Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya reporting from Tripoli is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).

http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=25863

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 10 Aug 2011 09:46

Britain has attacked Libya on the grounds of "civilian protection" (even though the real reason is to steal that country's resources).

Now isn't it fair that Britain too be attacked on the same grounds of "civilian protection" for killing civilians? Good old rioting is going on there and civilians need to be protected against the police.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 10 Aug 2011 09:54

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 10 Aug 2011 10:48

devesh wrote:but, isn't it the "religion" that fuels the "ideology?" you cannot separate the two. there is no point in getting stuck in a 'chicken eats egg' argument. ultimately, the religion plays an integral part in promoting vested imperial interests.

In the west, religion is always subordinated to political interests. That is a well defined relationship.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 13 Aug 2011 01:49

Can't verify the bona fides of the website...
Libya war lies worse than Iraq

No rapes, no African mercenaries, no helicopter gunships or bombers, and only 110 deaths prior to the launch of the NATO bombing campaign; every claim was based on a lie.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 14 Aug 2011 02:54

That there should be check mate. Every day from here on Gaddafi is putting his life and his coterie's lives at risk.

http://www.npr.org/2011/08/13/139607172 ... ter-zawiya

Heavy Clashes As Libyan Rebels Enter Zawiya

Libyan rebels fought their way into the strategic city of Zawiya west of Tripoli on Saturday in their most significant advance in months, battling snipers on rooftops and heavy shelling from Moammar Gadhafi's forces holding the city.

Zawiya, 30 miles from the capital, is a key target for rebels waging a new offensive launched from the mountains in the far west of Libya, an attempt to break the deadlock in combat between the two sides that has held for months in the center and east of the country.

A credible threat from the rebels in the west could strain Gadhafi's troops, which have been hammered for months by NATO airstrikes. Defending Zawiya is key for the regime but could require bringing in better trained forces who are currently ensuring its hold over its Tripoli stronghold or fighting rebels on fronts further east.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 14 Aug 2011 22:47

That should be it folks despite the fighting that happens. The end is definite now. The only question is if Gaddafi gets to chose the lamppost that he is going to swing from.

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditi ... 6920110814

Libyan rebel fighters on Sunday captured the coastal town of Surman, about 70 km (45 miles) west of the capital, a rebel spokesman told Reuters.

"The revolutionaries today entered the centre of Surman. They are now in full control of the town. There is no fighting there now," the spokesman, called Abdulrahman, said by telephone from the town of Zintan. His account could not immediately be verified.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 15 Aug 2011 22:44

Theo_Fidel wrote:That should be it folks despite the fighting that happens. The end is definite now. The only question is if Gaddafi gets to chose the lamppost that he is going to swing from.

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditi ... 6920110814
Libyan rebel fighters on Sunday captured the coastal town of Surman, about 70 km (45 miles) west of the capital, a rebel spokesman told Reuters.

"The revolutionaries today entered the centre of Surman. They are now in full control of the town. There is no fighting there now," the spokesman, called Abdulrahman, said by telephone from the town of Zintan. His account could not immediately be verified.

I wrote about possibly autumn. But no so sure now. From here to the end, things are going to be brutal. China and Russia have both hedged their initial pro-Qaddafi stances by giving some measure of tacit softening towards the rebels. India joined the club of condemnation but has not yet made any such volte-faces. So is it now "principled" stand and throw off the theory - ideology has no place in "international politics" - regardless of consequences? If a rebel gov comes to power, how will the calculations for supporting Qaddafi play out?

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 16 Aug 2011 01:39

It will be a very violent fall season in Tripoli if Gaddafi stays. But something has definitely change in his armed forces strategy if they gave up so much territory so quickly. Either there are mass defections or he has pulled in to defend Tripoli to the bitter end. I suspect the latter. For a week the rebels had telegraphed that they were coming up that road. Gaddfi could not even muster the 100 men with heavy weapons it would have taken to stop them.

I've never believed the stalemate talk. The key point IMHO was Gaddafi's failure to take Misurata. He lost the cream of his armed forces there on several suicidal headlong attacks. He never recovered form that manpower loss. Lesson there for Syria and Yemen.

Meanwhile an odd little wrinkle that should perk up some ears. A scud missile launch.

Now to wait for the launch on Israel.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... wdown.html

Col Gaddafi fires scud missile at rebel territory as Nato braces itself for final violent showdown

The rebels were attempting to identify the trajectory of the missile which was fired from Col Gaddafi's stronghold of Sirte even as his envoys headed for new talks with the opposition and a United Nations special envoy in Tunisia. Despite rumours that he is preparing to flee, the opposition fear Col Gaddafi is preparing a desperate last stand in Tripoli and towns still loyal to him in the face of recent rebel advances on two fronts which has cut off his crucial supply routes.

The regime is thought to possess more than 100 of the Scud B variant missiles. It agreed to destroy them in a deal to end sanctions a decade ago, but rows over their replacement mean the systems remain intact. Although military planners believe that the majority of the missiles were taken out in recent air strikes, several mobile brigades are thought still to exist. The missile fired may have been targeting rebel troop formations around Ajdabiyah, a key junction town seized from the regime earlier this year and home to the advance military headquarters of the rebels. It is believed the missile landed in the desert.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 17 Aug 2011 13:24

Yjeo,I don't think that Gadhaffi has anything that can reach Israel,the west emasculated most of his key capability,includign his N-ambitions,through its careful courting of him that made him drop his guard.Now here is a heroic tale that echoes that great Russian siniper Vasily Zaitsev,immortalised in the film "Enemy at the Gates" during the battle for Stalingrad.Imagine what if Gadhaffi has scores of them waiting for the rebels if they try to take Tripoli!

indianocean/libya/8705359/Libya-rooftop-sniper-takes-a-heavy-toll-in-Zawiyah-a-city-waiting-to-fall.html

Libya: rooftop sniper takes a heavy toll in Zawiyah, a city waiting to fall

Xcpt:

The euphoria of victory is not yet upon the Libyan rebels of Zawiyah.

By Damien McElroy, Zawiyah

Despite a lightning advance which has all but captured this key strategic oil town just 30 miles from Tripoli, the fighters of the volunteer army hoping to unseat Col Muammar Gaddafi’s Libyan regime are being held at bay, in part, by one man and a gun.

From the rooftops around the city’s Martyr’s Square, a single sniper has brought one wave of the assault along Libya’s western coast to something of a standstill.

“This sniper is really tormenting us,” says Hareth al-Fasi, a 24-year-old surgeon’s son and student from Sutton Coldfield, who has joined the opposition.

“The freedom fighters have tried everything to hit him but have seen nothing more than a rifle muzzle.”

The death of a woman shot in her front room has only added to the singular mystique of a killer ensconced in high buildings and who is said to have accounted for six of the 12 opposition fighters killed on Monday.

In truth, though, it is not just one man who stands in the way of victory. Zawiyah is a city ready to fall and it appears that Gaddafi forces know their fate and have hit back at the advance with ever more reckless abandon. Grad missiles have rained down on districts seized by rebel troops. Rockets and mortars have stopped ground advances in other disputed territories.

The chaos of war is evident throughout.

Pick-up trucks with anti-aircraft guns and single-barrelled rocket launchers fixed to the back tray rush in convoys into Zawiyah along the rebel-held Bir Ghanem street. On the other side of the highway, however, family cars stacked high with bedding head to the safety of the mountains.

After sweeping into the town on Saturday night, the rebel forces say they are marshalled for a tough fight.

“We are encouraging these people to leave so that we clear the government troops out of those neighbourhoods where Gaddafi’s militias are preparing to attack us,” Abdul Moaz Ramadan, 20, a checkpoint commander said.

Inside Zawiyah’s central streets, a battle of nerves between the rival armies has been shaped by the barrage of artillery and rockets.

A shrapnel fragment from a mortar sliced into the head of Omar Ali Misawi as a small unit of fighters advanced under the shop awnings on Omar al-Mukhtar street, formerly a shopping district. In a fug of concussion afterwards, he promised to press on as soon as a bandage was found.

“We are taking the fight to them,” he said. “There is no going back.”

Opposition commanders have pledged to make headway against the ferocious counter-assault, despite the heavy toll both on their ranks and civilian casualties.

“When we make our way into any city the government start firing rockets and missiles to make us leave and inflict suffering on civilians. We’re prepared for this,” said Mukhtar Mohammad, the commander of western mountain forces fighting in the town.

In February, Zawiyah staged a rebellion against Col Gaddafi which was brutally crushed in three bloody weeks.

A second rebellion is now evident with the incoming fighters enjoying the advantage of widespread local support. Hundreds have crossed into rebel territory to volunteer for the anti-Gaddafi cause.

habal · Post by **habal** » 17 Aug 2011 13:35

Libyan gov't forces claim victory in Misrata.

English.news.cn 2011-08-16 17:25:33 FeedbackPrintRSS

TRIPOLI, Aug. 16 (Xinhua) -- Forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi have declared victory in the stronghold of Misrata as soldiers fought their way into the city center, a government spokesman said Monday.

Government forces had started wiping out the remaining rebel forces inside Misrata, a city some 200 km east of Tripoli, Moussa Ibrahim told a local television station.

Ibrahim said local tribal forces had provided much help to maintain the city's security during the fighting.

The spokesman also denied the rebel claim that they had taken the city of Zawiyah, some 50 km west of Tripoli. He said the rebel forces in Zawiyah were weak and that it was only a matter of time before their defeat.

The rebels on Sunday claimed to have entered Zawiyah and controlled the vital transportation route between Libya's capital and the western mountainous areas.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/w ... 053298.htm

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 17 Aug 2011 17:58

^^^

At least put a smiley before posting from xinhua. Garbage site always.

Phillip,

Hardly Zeytsev. This guy is shooting his own people. Women/children not excluded.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 17 Aug 2011 19:11

Theo_Fidel wrote:^^^
Phillip,

Hardly Zeytsev. This guy is shooting his own people. Women/children not excluded.

Philip sir, it is not as if the rebels and Nato airstrikes & their "advisors" arent shooting down libyans - women/children not excluded.
Is this really a war of morality? this is war of oil and tribes.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 18 Aug 2011 05:37

I stumbled across this video of the Brigade that was sent to Misrata to take the town. Doesn't look like much but this is easily the most organized and massed military formation I've seen in this entire conflict, the cream of Gaddafi troops, such as it is. Look at the bus after bus after van/truck transporting troops. The fuel tankers and truck after truck laden with missiles and ammo. It truly was an entire brigade of 2000 soldiers, may even be more.

A city of clerks and unemployed youths wiped this formation of the face of the earth in 6 weeks of urban combat. It was the loss of this formation that has doomed Gaddafi. There is no rebel group that could have stood up to this.There is a lesson here for modern armies. Definitely a 600 page book on how it was done to be written.

Wonder if any Indian city has the fortitude to fight this way when the time comes.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 21 Aug 2011 08:51

Zlitan has fallen(East Tripoli). Gharyan has fallen (South Tripoli.).

There are reports Gaddafi is fleeing the country. Run Gaddafi Run....

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 22 Aug 2011 04:17

This is it..

International Criminal Court says that Qaddafi has been detained.

Earlier a Libyan government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim said Gaddafi had asked NATO to convince the rebel forces to halt their attack on Tripoli.

Earlier, Muammar Qaddafi's presidential guard had surrendered to Libya's rebels, Al Arabiya reported on Sunday, citing the rebel National Transitional Council after reports came in that the rebels captured Muammar Qaddafi's son, Saif Al-Islam during their strategic advance on Tripoli.

Q isnt going anywhere outside of Tripoli without NATO and ICC approval. A short term house arrest would initiate the next set of events, one would think.

ADDED: Developing story, link shows the report as of Sunday night.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 22 Aug 2011 04:26

Theo_Fidel wrote:Zlitan has fallen(East Tripoli). Gharyan has fallen (South Tripoli.).

There are reports Gaddafi is fleeing the country. Run Gaddafi Run....

No running. We want stylish dictator die in style!

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 22 Aug 2011 08:04

Rebels waving opposition flags and firing into the air enter Tripoli's Green Square.

Two of Gaddafi's sons were captured by the rebels, who were also reported to have seized the Libyan state radio building in the capital. Gaddafi's presidential guard units laid down their arms.

Remaining defiant, Gaddafi earlier had made two audio addresses over state television calling on Libyans to fight off the rebels.

"I am afraid if we don't act, they will burn Tripoli," he said. "There will be no more water, food, electricity or freedom."

But resistance to the rebels appeared to have largely faded away, allowing the rebels and their supporters to demonstrate in Green Square.

Televised images showed Libyans kneeling and kissing the ground of Tripoli in gratitude for what some called a "blessed day."

We might also see Qaddafi's defiant psy-ops fading away by the minute, as we speak.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 22 Aug 2011 08:05

As and when Q falls, we will need a new dictator as per perhaps certain quarters of Indian strategic thinking. Is GOI sticking to its earlier support for Q - and going to offer asylum to him? Or we are already working on a HR team to headhunt and interview the next dictator?

I am mighty pleased at the rolling over of the one who had called for supporting Kashmiri Islamists - even if it is at the hands of fellow travelers. Any unmentionable treatment as used by him and his men and all that is recorded and sanctified as doable and done by his religion, when applied to him and his colleagues - is perfectly alright. That should be the most desired outcome for all who similarly support the same cause - even if they are not Q or even if they are Indians.

But end of Q, means getting one step closer to elimination of Mubarak, and eventual demise of Assad. Why does the purest land's padhsahs think that a similar fate is not awaiting them - just because the "west" is still wagging its tail apparently in favour?

But I guess GOI [and perhaps official sublime strategic minds of India and the political power behind GOI - the congrez think tanks] will have to ponder the consequence of supporting Q with any new opposition regime that come sto power in Libya. What will happen to the promised "oil blocks"? What if - just as reward for supporting Q - now the new regime decides to lend support to the Kashmiri separatis shenanigans! At least the sublime strategists can say - look this is why we supported the previous dictator who also supported the same Islamists - but at least we could call him our own "dictator" in the middle east!

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 22 Aug 2011 09:07

Tripoli has fallen.

Where are all the CT guys now.

Bji,

Remember what I said about how quickly it will happen when it happens. All these dictators, Assad included are hollow tyrants. Can believe a few thousand shop keepers and students beat the pulp out of Gaddafi. Lesson for us too.

Unfortunately this is probably too soon and some amount of chaos/revenge killing is likely to occur in the security vacuum. Hope they manage this.

And yup... ..Assad will now get undivided attention. Just don't see how he survives.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 22 Aug 2011 09:14

Gadafi & Sons in custody...

They will almost certainly face Libyan law and be hanged.

Which too would be unfortunate as it might cause resentment ala Iraq & the Sunni's.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 22 Aug 2011 09:34

Ok now wait for Various contracts from Defense to OIl to signed with British , French and AMerican companies from Defense to Oil.

Iraq these days buys about USD 10 Billion from the US for weapons and training.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 22 Aug 2011 09:56

Theo_Fidel wrote:
A city of clerks and unemployed youths wiped this formation of the face of the earth in 6 weeks of urban combat. It was the loss of this formation that has doomed Gaddafi. There is no rebel group that could have stood up to this.There is a lesson here for modern armies. Definitely a 600 page book on how it was done to be written.

Wonder if any Indian city has the fortitude to fight this way when the time comes.

No the city did not destroy them. NATO's bombing destroyed these formations.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 22 Aug 2011 12:00

One must note that in their desire to be too clever by half, India's babus left us twisting in the wind on these developments. Many words were spoken here on how brilliant the moves were. As usual we will fail to benefit from world events.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld ... 5497.story

The uprising in the Nafusa Mountains was so little noticed early on that the fighting often barely merited mention as the world focused on dramatic events in and around Benghazi and Misurata. In the end, however, the western rebels' tenacity and proximity to Tripoli seemed crucial in breaking down what the government had long boasted was a virtually impregnable wall of security around the capital.

Throughout the conflict, Kadafi's government seems to have rejected the notion that a motley group of mountain dwellers could move on the leader's inner sanctum. "We're not worried about these so-called rebels," Musa Ibrahim, the government's chief spokesman, said in June after clashes with western rebels erupted anew near Zawiya. "What is a problem for us is NATO."

Here's what I noted way back when. I did get the Sirte thing wrong however. I was so sure it was too exposed.

And it was Misurata destroying the cream of his forces over 4 months that left his flank so exposed.

But in the end only the mountains were needed.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 0#p1063684

Keep in mind the South West of Libya, with more oil reserves, is even more hostile towards Gaddafi. There is nothing between these people in the Zintan area from marching on Tripoli. Undoubtedly special forces types are preparing them for such a flanking move. Even a couple of thousand tribesmen will shatter Gaddafi's deployment. And he has to hold Misurata, a city of 300,000 who are well armed and are baying for his blood.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 22 Aug 2011 12:07

Just listening to the fighters it appears Libya is not Iraq. For one the vast majority are highly (self claimed) educated. Most have some sort of professional college education. You never saw them build car bombs or truck bombs or crude IED's or road mines or sectarian slaughters in towns they captured. You know that they must have been sorely tempted to escalate the ruthlessness but they never did. The lessons of Iraq seem to gnaw at their rules of engagement. IMHO this bodes well for their democratic future, though no guarantees can be given.

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 22 Aug 2011 16:26

It is time for Assad (syria) to go as he is trying to bring change after killing his own people.
Syrian Forces Kill Two Protesters as Assad Rejects Call to Leave
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-2 ... leave.html

As I mentioned Saudis should bring some reformation so that political power will remain with local people. Even other countries around Saudi should also relax political reforms if not the changes are soon to come. There should also be some religious freedom for other people.
http://www.bna.bh/portal/en/news/469428

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Aug 2011 16:55

every other strongman might fall, but the most dangerous for India - saudia arabia continues to rule unabated under american protection.

no other revolt benefits us remotely as would a cleaning up and remodelling of saudi arabia.

shivajisisodia · Post by **shivajisisodia** » 22 Aug 2011 17:34

Singha wrote:every other strongman might fall, but the most dangerous for India - saudia arabia continues to rule unabated under american protection.

no other revolt benefits us remotely as would a cleaning up and remodelling of saudi arabia.

The problem with a revolution in Saudi is that any alternative dispensation will be fanatically Islamists, far more even so than the current dispensation.

The same is probably true for almost all Arab countries including Syria, where I dont believe anything more "liberal" than Assad is possible. Libya may be an exception, but look at Egypt, where Muslim Brotherhood is primed to take over.

Muslim Brotherhood types all over the Arab world are the worst possible outcome for India. They may be making some friendly noises about the West at the moment, but in the medium and long run, they will behave worst than the Iranian Mullahs and as bad as the Paki, vis-a-vis the West as well.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 22 Aug 2011 17:43

shivajisisodia wrote:
Singha wrote:every other strongman might fall, but the most dangerous for India - saudia arabia continues to rule unabated under american protection.

no other revolt benefits us remotely as would a cleaning up and remodelling of saudi arabia.

The problem with a revolution in Saudi is that any alternative dispensation will be fanatically Islamists, far more even so than the current dispensation.

The same is probably true for almost all Arab countries including Syria, where I dont believe anything more "liberal" than Assad is possible. Libya may be an exception, but look at Egypt, where Muslim Brotherhood is primed to take over.

Muslim Brotherhood types all over the Arab world are the worst possible outcome for India. They may be making some friendly noises about the West at the moment, but in the medium and long run, they will behave worst than the Iranian Mullahs and as bad as the Paki, vis-a-vis the West as well.

Boss once they descent into chaos and Taliban style rule for 10-12 years. The appetite for radical Islam world over will come down.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Aug 2011 17:49

joshvajohn wrote:It is time for Assad (syria) to go as he is trying to bring change after killing his own people.

joshvajohn ji,

perhaps before asking him to go, you may wish to consider what would happen to the minorities in Syria, e.g. the Christians. One knows what happened in Iraq!

If I may say so, you really need to get off the Anglo-American propaganda machine, which offers a very simplistic narrative depending on their interests.

If you don't like my advice, just ignore it!

shivajisisodia · Post by **shivajisisodia** » 22 Aug 2011 17:54

Aditya_V wrote: Boss once they descent into chaos and Taliban style rule for 10-12 years. The appetite for radical Islam world over will come down.

I wish that were so, Sir.

Besides it is not just a function of desiring something, it is also a function of the ability to be able to change for the better. The fanatics, once they take over, have an amazing ability to suppress all dissent and rule for a very long time, despite what the general population thinks, although, I think the general population in the Islamic world too, with the exception of a very few urbanized and educated, does not seem to mind very much just about any atrocity the Islamists perpetrate among them in the name of Islam. The Afg population, the Paki population and even the Iranian population, not to mention the Shiite population of Lebanon is a prime example of this. The general populations in these countries dont seem to resent their mullahs much, quite the contrary.

But Taliban ruled Afghan for more than 10 years, and yet, there seems to be a great apetite for them among the Pushtoon population in general there.

Look at Iran. Has been more than 32 years now, since the Mullahs have taken over. No change there yet.

Who knows about the very long run, but 1400 years or so of mostly brutal Islamic rule doesnt seem to have created an apetite among the Islamic populations for something better, at least so far.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 22 Aug 2011 18:05

>>Boss once they descent into chaos and Taliban style rule for 10-12 years. The appetite for radical Islam world over will come down.

Possible, but not probable IMHO. What can they turn to?

The "Turkish model"? But there the appetite for Islam only seems to be going up after many decades of radical secularism.

The new "Egyptian model"? All indications are that they are going very much towards an Islamic orientation (both in policy terms and in social terms).

Taliban style rule is Islamic rule as close to the book as can be. Who is going to support a shift to any other approach as aggressively as the Islamic ideologues do? Let's remember that violence, or the threat of violence, is part and parcel of the Islamic parties' approach. If those advocating anything else are going to stand a chance, they will have to be prepared to go the same path... which means civil war. And remember, the mother of all Islamic ideologues are in Saudi Arabia, where the regime which perpetrates this approach has the protection of the US. And KSA has the money. Who do you think KSA is going to support?

More likely we are going to see a Sunni version of the Iranian revolution, but in "lite" format - at least to start with. So the purges will come slowly, over years, until the situation concretizes into an Islamic system where others (Muslims with a secular bent or other minorities) might have a say but not much. And the degree of the say they have will vary from country to country, depending on how "secular" it was to begin with. There may be a couple of exceptions to this rule.

As for Libya, the fun is just beginning.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 22 Aug 2011 20:06

It all comes down to the prominence of Islamic education/institutions. Gaddafi castrated them and the population is relatively nonradicalized. If the new dispensation is not careful in 20 years the Islamics could ramp up and create that core 10% of the population they need to destroy a country.

One must always remember that Libya is far larger than Iraq in Area. It has about 1/2 the oil but is unexplored. And has about 1/3 the population. It is a relatively large Arab state. The fact that Obama and NATO got this done with a few bombs shows how wrong George Bush/Dick Cheney approach to Iraq was. At least at this snapshot moment.

WRT Saudi Arappia the world will never let a 10 million barrel per day producer descend to Taliban/Paki status. As many have pointed out the funds for Madarassa's actually largely comes from the population. Even in Kuwait there are donation and collection points for radical Islamist groups in many prominent places. I remember seeing one in the Airport 5 years ago, with Burga clad women making contributions as they walked by. It is an oil state phenomenon, not just Arappia.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Aug 2011 20:28

so where is Qadhafi ? has he fled to chad or niger in the south? already in nato custody but keeping it quiet for now? has he shot himself? been assassinated by defecting guards? in some hiding hole hoping to start a insurgency?

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 22 Aug 2011 21:00

RajeshA
when the governments tend to kill their own people other countries will interfere. some people cannot escape by saying this is a western propaganda. Whether it is Libya or Srilanka, the regimes cannot survive if they kill their own people.

There are countries such as China and others who intervened in Africa and have turned them into Marxian govt. In many cases these countries have fallen into chaos with internal conflicts ratherl than coming up as a nation. Ofcouse the West is not necessarily right all the time in terms of invasion particularly of Iraq. But to get rid of Gaddaffi is the right thing to do as the reform will be open to the people.

I also realise other arguments whether Libya will fall into the hands of Islamic terrorists. This is where a quick democratic council is needed there in Libya which will plan for a democratically elected government. This elected government works on an inclusive growth of people in libya and can be rich in supplying oil and thus grow faster towards a free and fair country.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 22 Aug 2011 21:21

shivajisisodia wrote:
But Taliban ruled Afghan for more than 10 years, and yet, there seems to be a great apetite for them among the Pushtoon population in general there.

The Taliban would not survive a year without Support from Khaki's in GHQ Rawalpindi. The funding comes from drugs, however R&R and training happens east of the Afgan border. The Taliban never was, never is and never will be an indigenous Afgan movement. It has many pakjabis too.