johneeG wrote:I think the surest and shortest way of discrediting PA in the eyes of aam pakis(of all varieties) is by subjecting them to defeat(visible and tangible i.e. land) at the hands of IA.
Since 1947, PA has only tasted defeat and each defeat is more humiliating than the earlier one. Even domestically, PA has been riled as when Musharraf was eventually hounded out. At least, the unpopular Ayub handed over power to another PA General and Yahya himself was displaced by mid-level PA officers who brought in a civilian. But, Musharraf was simply hated by a vast majority of Pakistanis. Kayani's job has been to restore PA's image and he has done a good job. The PA masses have become more mature now, I would say. They do not hesitate to rile the PA if it goes too overboard domestically but go solidly behind the PA when it matters externally. 'External' means H&D and that cannot be allowed to suffer. That was why, Abbottabad could be easily turned around against the US. PA knows this very well and that is why they are preparing to do backseat driving through Imran Khan while keeping the external environment as its complete domain.
Defeating PA overwhelmingly so that it will lose its credibility among the Pakistanis may not work. In 1947/1948, the PA blamed the politicians for not annexing the entire J&K claiming that another few months, the PA would have captured the Valley and then Jammu. The politicians were in a hurry to declare ceasefire etc. In 1965, the arms embargo by the US was cited as the reason. In order to sustain this reason, protests were organized throughout the country against the US. At the same time, fabricated heroism of the PA was propagated including the help by the Djinns et al. 1971 was blamed at the doorsteps of Hindu Bania cunning, the Hindu association with the Soviets and the treachery of the Hindu-corrupted Bengalis. The result was portrayed as good riddance of the polluted, thereby enhancing the Islamic purity of Pakistan and as a punishment from Allah for being deviant. The defeat was used to radicalize the PA and the society to ensure future successes. Kargil was a victory which was snatched away by a frightened Nawaz Sharif running to the Americans. Yet, all was not lost at Kargil because the PA was able to invite international attention to the Kashmir issue once again. Abbottabad was neatly turned into bashing the US for violating sovereignty.
It is one thing for the PA and the State to indulge in the above type of propaganda to preserve H&D. This is understandable. But, the whole country believes in all these cr@p. The point is that even if the PA is roundly defeated (I do not know what will it take to claim such a victory by the IA), the Pakistanis will simply believe in another made-up excuse as to why it happened. Sure, some retired PA officers or newspaper Editors or analysts have said unflattering things about the PA but they dare not say so in Urdu. They speak English when they say such things. Even when they say so in Urdu, as Najam Sethi does, they do not have a mass following among the aam-aadmi. Who, in Pakistan, follows Khaled Ahmed or Najam ? The RAPE may know the truth but they are unwilling to carry it to the aam admi because every one, including those who say damning things in English, ultimately want to conquer India.
Whether we like it not, the possession of the nukes by PA does act as a deterrent. The ambiguous & non-existent doctrines, the TNWs, the recklessness exhibited by the PA in the last six decades, the very low redlines enunciated by so many Pakistani power-centres, the embedding of the jihadis within the PA structure, and the acceptance of the PA-jihadi nexus by the whole country as a valid instrument to pursue their State's interests, would all have to be taken into account while formulating the Indian military planning. Even if the IA has such a plan to call the Pakistani bluff, we must expect a rapid intervention by the Americans, the Chinese and a clutch of other nations into the conflict once it develops, one way or another. We must be politically and militarily strong to take these forces on and single-mindedly go after Pakistan. I am not too sure if India can do so in the current circumstances or even in foreseeable future. If one reads 'India-Pakistan Military Standoff' by Zachary Davis, one realizes that the US and the British know that when important leaders or diplomats from their countries are visiting or about to visit New Delhi, India would not contemplate a counter attack and they worked on sending a stream of such visitors during the twin events of Parliament Attack and subsequently Kaluchak.
To me, it therefore appears that discrediting PA through an Indian initiative (or an Indian initiative alone) is a non-starter.
As long as the pakis feel that PA can match IA, PA has a lifeline. As long as the pakis view PA to be able to hold its own before IA, they will tolerate all the shenanigans of PA.
The aam-aadmi in Pakistan will always feel that the PA will more than match the IA. The ratio may no longer be 10:1 though. PA will therefore continue to have the prime place in the Pakistani collective mindset. With increasing jihadisation of the PA and the radicalization of the society, the PA will transform itself over the next few years but its hold on the people or the country will not diminish. On the contrary.
Stopping the external aid to PA will hurt PA's ability to match IA and needle India. Thus, it indirectly paves the way for discrediting of PA before the pakis.
Of course, PA will face huge problems if the US even decided not to give spare parts for its equipment. Its equipment is what sustains PA's ambitions and aggression. But, the US is simply not willing to do so even when it came to a conclusion, a couple of years back, that it was about to be defeated in Afghanistan and that Pakistan was the one behind its defeat if it happened. What the US refuses to give, China will give. SSNs,for example. The US and PRC are thus complementary for the PA.
However, I do not think ending PA is enough to end pakistaniyat.
Absolutely. This is a long drawn-out programme. The powers such as India, US and PRC must collaborate in this. Otherwise, it will not succeed. What the US and PRC fail to recognize is that this evil ideology from Pakistan will singe them badly (already it has done so and continues to do so). They will not be able to insulate themselves even if they have secret understanding with various Islamist groups there. But, for compelling tactical and foolish strategic reasons, they continue to prop up Pakistan. The latter is cleverly exploiting that by ensuring that the tactical reasons will not disappear and will continue to persist.
(given that I have absolutely no real life experience regarding Porkistan besides a scrawny kid who was my classmate/friend back when I was a little kid). All the same I can't bring myself to believe (of course my belief need not be valid) that trading with Porkistan will help us more than it will help them and that we would develop a leverage on them rather than they on us (this again could be the "we Indians are all idiots and incompetent complex"). I just can't see anyone in positions of power in India who has the intellect or willpower to pull this off to our benefit. Having said that, I am more than willing to be corrected.
should ALWAYS dish it to the Pakis the way it is with full body blows to their H&D with no quarter given.