Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

[ramana]

It's nearly six months since the 2020 Galwan crisis was resolved in October 2024.
I am asking the large China Studies interest groups if there has been a study examining the timeline and what steps India and China took to resolve the neo Cuban Missile Crisis of the 21st century.
Please I want thoughtful replies. No one liners or flippant replies.

[bala]

The YT by Sumit Peer on PGurus has a segment on China nuclear submarines (093-B) Shang III. The US CIA has been tracking the development of the submarine, so much so, that the CIA has understood the signature, has clear pictures of the submarine including its propellers and more. Emperor Eleven fired the head of their nuclear submarines. There is more tidbits about other stuff on Chinese subterfuge and pulling the wool over world's eyes upon it.

youtube.com/watch?v=uWt8AHDtn7k

[A_Gupta]

New synthetic opioids, more potent from fentanyl, coming from China, and flooding the West, Africa, Europe and Australia so far, signal the new Opium Wars, if this video is to be believed.
https://youtu.be/QrGE393xias?si=Pe3bp4id8BcP7Gj2

[SSridhar]

I am asking the large China Studies interest groups if there has been a study examining the timeline and what steps India and China took to resolve the neo Cuban Missile Crisis of the 21st century.

AFAIK, no such study has been conducted. We have also not done so.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 025-03-12/

German spy agency concluded COVID virus likely leaked from lab, papers say

“FRANKFURT, March 12 (Reuters) - Germany's foreign intelligence service in 2020 put at 80%-90% the likelihood that the coronavirus behind the COVID-19 pandemic was accidentally released from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology, two German newspapers reported on Wednesday.”

“The spy agency assessment's was based on an unspecified intelligence operation code-named "Saaremaa" as well as on publicly-available data. It had been commissioned by the office of Germany's chancellor at the time, Angela Merkel, but never published, the report said.”

[bala]

This warrants a mention in this thread. We are talking about Vietnam the neighbor next door to China. China has been using Vietnam as a way to increase its export clout by relocating factories from China into Vietnam. In fact the laid of workers of China relocated themselves into Vietnam to support the factory output. The US has a huge trade deficit with Vietnam and this won't fly with DJT. So what can Vietnam do to counter this new trade threat. Vietnam has gone about in a rather cool manner to upset the Chinese. They took over some reefs in South China Sea and created airports/ shipping ports. They also extended their economic zone 200 miles out in contention with the Chinese. Vietnam signed a Russian deal for Su-30 type crafts and co-opted India for additional defence help like Brahmos, etc. Meawhile they have made deals with Laos and Cambodia to use the Mekong river unhindered. While China was battling the Phillippines and Japan/South Korea, Vietnam has had joint exercises with the Phillippines. Furthermore they have China steel coming into Vietnam, now they want to switch to Indian steel and show the US that they are not dependent on China. Whew!

Sumit Peer explains all of this:
youtube.com/watch?v=AV3BSdIPFrM

There is more on the students of China who are circulating in various nations like US, Canada, Singapore, Eurotard nations, Australia, African etc. The women students of china are into parallel professions.

[sanjaykumar]

Please elaborate on the last line.

[RCase]

Please elaborate on the last line.

Haneh, you want a massah?

[SSridhar]

AIKEYME in action: India counters China with African naval outreach - South China Morning Post

India is set to kick off its first major naval exercise with 10 African nations next month, in a move signalling its growing strategic ambitions.

The Africa-India Key Maritime Engagement (AIKEYME) exercise, will take place off the coast of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in mid-April amid New Delhi’s deepening military outreach on a continent where China has long been a dominant player.

Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh will inaugurate the six-day exercise, which will see India co-hosting with the Tanzania People’s Defence Force. The event will bring together naval forces from Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles and South Africa.

The exercise marks a major step for India’s maritime diplomacy, reinforcing its role as a regional security provider while deepening strategic and economic ties with Africa, according to foreign-affairs specialist Robinder Sachdev, founder-president of the Imagindia Institute, a Delhi-based think tank.

India’s naval presence in the region is not entirely new. The country already operates a coastal radar surveillance network in Mauritius, Seychelles and the Maldives under its Integrated Coastal Surveillance System. But “AIKEYME adds a layer of joint operational readiness” to this infrastructure, enabling faster and more coordinated responses to maritime threats, Sachdev said.

“Strategically, the exercise reinforces India’s positioning as a reliable, non-coercive maritime partner, particularly in countries like Mozambique and Tanzania, where India has long-term interests in LNG and port infrastructure,” he said.

Sachdev said AIKEYME also carried geopolitical weight by aligning with the policy goals of the United States and other democratic allies. “Washington has consistently encouraged partners like India to take on greater responsibility for regional security, especially in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific,” he said.

A ‘managerial role’

The timing of AIKEYME is no coincidence. China, through its expansive Belt and Road Initiative, has entrenched itself as Africa’s largest trading partner and creditor, with official figures showing trade between the two reached US$295 billion last year. Beijing has also established a military foothold in Djibouti and invested heavily in East African ports and infrastructure.

India’s move is a calculated response to counter Beijing’s growing influence, analysts say. “East Africa has considerable strategic relevance for India in a number of domains including hydrocarbons and, in that context, this particular joint naval exercise would burnish India’s credibility as a reliable partner in Africa,” said C. Uday Bhaskar, a former Indian naval officer and head of the Society for Policy Studies think tank.

He acknowledged the challenges, however. With China’s economic resources far surpassing India’s, Bhaskar said Delhi would do well to focus on building goodwill, rather than trying to match China dollar-for-dollar.

“It would be ideal if India and China could both be partners in enabling Africa but that would require considerable political perspicacity and willingness of both sides,” he added. {It is not even an Utopian dream. China cannot allow anyone to be associated with it on an equal footing because of its geopolitical aims}

Running parallel to AIKEYME is another first-of-its-kind initiative, the Indian Ocean Ship Sagar. From mid-April to early May, the offshore patrol vessel INS Sunayna will be jointly manned by Indian sailors and personnel from nine African nations, including Kenya, Madagascar and South Africa. The crew will conduct joint surveillance of exclusive economic zones in Tanzania, Mozambique, Mauritius and Seychelles, while making port calls at Dar es Salaam, Nacala, Port Louis, Port Victoria and Male.

Dongkeun Lee, a defence studies scholar at Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, said the initiative highlighted India’s aspiration to take on a “managerial role” in the Indian Ocean. {This is a diamterically opposite approach to that of China in the Indo-China Sea, ICS}

“Although the western Indian Ocean is often not considered part of the Indo-Pacific, particularly by the United States, India’s conception of the Indo-Pacific includes this subregion,” he said. “Moreover, some of the African countries invited to participate in maritime exercises are located in the western Indian Ocean, which indicates India’s interest in assuming a managerial role across the broader [region].”

Lee said there was no doubt that China planned to extend its belt and road investments across the African continent, which meant that initiatives such as AIKEME and Sagar “can be interpreted as New Delhi’s strategy aimed at countering China’s expanding influence across the broader Indian Ocean region”.

AIKEYME takes on added significance because it follows “Peace-Unity 2024”, a month-long military drill held in mid-2024 by China, Tanzania, and Mozambique. That exercise was China’s largest military deployment to Africa since 1997, according to Paul Nantulya, a research associate with the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies at the National Defence University in the US.

“AIKEYME seems to have been designed to be larger than Peace-Unity 2024. China is yet to conduct an exercise in Africa in 2025, and it will be interesting to watch how it responds to this Indian initiative,” Nantulya said.

India’s economic interests in Africa predate China’s modern engagements on the continent, he said. “India has a much larger indigenous population that is part of Africa’s population, having come in the 17th century, which has also been involved in the continent’s political development, including its struggle for independence,” Nantulya said.

“That means that they do have an advantage because they integrate into African communities and become ‘indigenous’ in a way that Chinese communities do not.”

Economic, strategic stakes

India’s trade with Africa currently stands at US$83 billion, according to the Confederation of Indian Industry, with 90 per cent of this moving via sea routes. Over the past decade, Delhi has extended around US$12 billion in credit to 42 African nations, representing about 40 per cent of its overseas credit commitments.

But observers say India’s efforts pale in comparison to China’s massive investments, which have included 643 direct projects worth US$150 billion, according to the Hinrich Foundation, a Singapore-based trade sustainability group.

Sayantan Haldar, a maritime-security expert at the Observer Research Foundation think tank in Delhi, sees the naval exercises as a critical step for India to establish itself as a security partner in Africa.

“Towards this end, India’s strategic profile in the region is likely to receive a critical fillip,” Haldar said, adding that translating this momentum into the economic dimension would be vital. India’s primary challenge was China’s deep economic engagement in Africa, he said.

“Africa has for long sought stable development partnerships,” Haldar said. “To this effect, China is seen as an important partner. To compete with China in Africa, India needs to streamline its approach and advance economic partnerships. However, maritime-security cooperation can be a crucial stepping stone for India in Africa.”

African nations are grappling with issues including drug trafficking, illegal fishing and piracy – areas where India’s naval expertise could provide much-needed support, Bhaskar said.

Despite these efforts, India’s influence in Africa remains limited by its lack of full-time diplomatic missions in 16 African countries, as well as its relatively slow execution of development assistance.

“India’s efforts in Africa are not aimed at competing with China on economic scale, but at offering a credible, long-term strategic alternative,” Sachdev said. “Particularly in areas where China’s debt-driven, state-led model has raised concerns among African nations.”

In September, China gathered leaders from 53 African countries for the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing, which concluded with a joint declaration calling for a more multipolar world, and the adoption of an action plan on cooperation between the two over the coming years.

[bala]

The Chinese are intent to kneecap India in the manufacturing sector. It will make all attempts to thwart India's rise in the global sphere. China deems India as a potential rival long term. During 2000s upto to 2010 globalization meant manufacturing in China. Now that FDI into china has come to a halt and companies are pulling out from China, there is palpalable fear in Chinese eyes that the manufacturing clout will reside in India.

China has invested its excess money around the world. South asian nations like Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam are already producing stuff for the world based on Chinese investment. Euope is similar, Mexico, South america, Africa, North Korea and even US have been destinations for Chinese investment. China has been excluded from Indian investments for a long time. This is simply because, India does not want to be a dumping ground for China made components. Moreover, Chinese investments have strings attached and adherence to their BRI strategy. Recently India is allowing some investments from China into India.

Apple and other MNCs have moved their operations into India away from China. The trend will happen increasingly as there is no alternative to huge manufacturing clout other than India. India has to realize the change and navigate its way carefully. In Pharma for example, India was dependent on API supply from China but Covid/KungFlu woke up India to the potential blackmail from China on API. Many imports from China into India are thus to be reviewed carefully and the Banias of India need to step up and plug the holes.

Bottomline: China despite all the talks with India, views India as its rival and will do maximum to thwart its rise.

P. R. Shankar explains:
youtube.com/watch?v=cfpR1j3hrHA

[bala]

Empire of Illusion: Why China Isn’t a Superpower

Frank Dikötter is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution who has recently returned to the United States after living in Hong Kong since 2006. In this provocative conversation, Dikötter challenges the prevailing narrative about China’s rise. Drawing from his latest book, China After Mao: The Rise of a Superpower, Dikötter argues that the Chinese Communist Party has masterfully projected the image of a powerful, modern, and economically dominant nation — but says that image is largely a façade.




// MyNotes from YT: China has transformed since 1980 to where it is today. However, all the figures/numbers and statistics of China are fake. China's CCP spent vast amounts of money to project an image of itself. The money is of course the savings of ordinary folks in banks. In 1982 Deng Xiaoping laid out 4 cardinal principles - uphold marxism/leninism, uphold socialism, uphold the proletariat authority and uphold the chinese communist party. Uniformity was imposed across the land - 1 party, 1 language, 1 time zone on China. Surprisingly, order at the top causes disorder amongst the people inherently since they have no skin in the game. There is deep distrust amongst themselves and each person looks after themselves instead of worrying anything about the nation. They witness power from the top which is wielded by a select few, almost in fear of their bosses above. This regimented power structure is uniformly applied across China. There is no opposition to any decision. Around 20-25% of the people are connected directly/indirectly to the CCP and the remaining live in fear of them. One of the fears of CCP is that the people will overthrow them and democracy will take hold in China. COVID was a turning point when people were forcibly told to stay put. Many died and there was no acknowledgement by the CCP, numbers were fudged, bodies were incinerated unceremoniously by the CCP.

Nato bombed the Chinese embassy in former Yugoslovia and the Chinese were upset. The atonement by the US was admission into WTO in 1999 by Bill Clinton and formally by 2001 onwards by G. W. Bush. China never followed the rules of the WTO. China's GDP per capita in 1976 was 123rd in the world when Chairman Mao passed away. In 2000, the world bank says China is 130th in the world in per capita. The Chinese countryside is nearly bankrupt.

The Chinese resorted to over production of stuff prior to WTO. They have 68 sq km of warehouses which retains 40% of production at any time. As an example they make 30 million TVs but sell only around 15 million TVs. After WTO they emptied their warehouse for the world at costs that were ridiculously cheap. China never agreed to its capital account convertible or float its currency rate. 500 of its largest enterprises are in the hands of party members. Private sector was given some leeway only to be clamped down later by the state. The flooding of cheap goods caused many in the world to sell their factories to China. These were taken over by the CCP.

China's military strength is a mirage. It looks like in shape and form proper and invincible, but behind the scenes the deck hands are plugging holes and leaks constantly. In 1979 the PLA fought the Vietnamese but that turned out to be a disaster. Other than that they have no fighting experience, they don't know whether their weapons will work in a war scenario. The US fears that if China were to takeover Taiwan, then their sphere of influence over the Indo-Pacific would disappear. China will also thwart dollar dominance in the world. China will not stop just at Taiwan, they will get more ambitious in the world.

China has closed itself, the internet is closed of from the world, very few foreigners are present in China, there are more in North Korea. COVID has changed things. The outside world now realizes the Chinese and their CCP. Xi Jinpeng lives in fear and paranoia, none of his close associates come close to him. He has fired a whole bunch of potentially powerful people in the PLA. Everyday there is a purge of many in the CCP. The real estate activity in China has come to a grinding stop. Many cities have gleaming buildings that are not occupied. Cities like Shanghai are ghost cities with hardly any visible people activity. The Chinese high speed train is hardly used since people don't have the money to travel in them. Their Airports are also reported to have very little activity for internal travel. Many have been laid of from work and they are back to their villages. Its population is declining rapidly. China might end up with more old people than Japan.

[Manish_P]

....
very few foreigners are present in China, there are more in North Korea
...

[Agasthi]

I'm coming around to a view that even within China - a seemingly opaque monolith, there are wheels within wheels and often these are fueled from outside forces especially the American empire. The empire realized following the Obama-Xi summits that China is going to be no Japan or Germany.

2020 - Covid - Wuhan - virus escapes but is a lab that was funded by Americans as a sign of good will gesture but the blame was laid on the doors of China. It set the stage for special operations to try browbeat China economically and make it a secondary power kowtowing to the American empire. China investments in tech starts to grow exponentially.

2020 - Delhi Riots in Feb and Farmer Protests - Triggered by assets within India. It was to show India that they have deep claws and not afraid to use it. It was also to browbeat India not to develop its own Covid vaccine through its companies and join an alliance against China. I can't re-find the article but the riots in Iraq in 2019 and 2020 was triggered by Trump in blackmail to the then Iraqi Government. Post-Waqf, nary a whimper from Muslims. No direction or money came for the empire is in a bit of a reset at the moment. It never was about the deen!

However, it also showed the empire the limits of its own power. They also exposed their assets which since then have been slowly choked and eliminated quite a bit. GoI could take hits and more hits and smile. Delhi was as slimy as they are

https://www.wsj.com/articles/iraq-acts- ... 1570464203

2020 - Galwan - triggered by assets within China to set off a war. As there are wheels within wheels, both parties wisened upto the larger game afoot and cooled down. However, it killed two birds with one stone. It isolated China further from developing a potential ally in India following Covid. Instead, it sent India to the willing arms of the US who were so generous with Intel and offering to accept that they are at peace with India manufacturing its own vaccine. The party who started it all with their assets in both countries.

2022 - Russia takes an unavoidable trap and invades Ukraine. It is being squeezed. Unintended consequence - Russo-Chinese alliance of convenience. Its Russia past greatness as a super power prevents its complete acceptance of vassalage as it had done under the Mongols against the West. This is what the empire hopes will prevent Russia from becoming a vassal.

This empire operates in the shadows but it knows it has limits. China is Japan on steroids and unlike Japan and Germany, China and Russia and India have common borders, it is in the interest of the empire not to allow any sort of bonhomie between the three. These three together even on the map is larger than the core Anglo-Sphere and can easily control Central Asia, Europe, West and South-East Asia.

Here's a link to an article that points to how these shadow warfare coordinated with the allies forced Japan to attack Pearl Harbour. The scenarios are eerily very similar to what's playing out today. its as if, a textbook is being followed.

https://www.independent.org/news/article.asp?id=1930

They are trying out similar themes with the view of provoking China to attack. Tried changing the government in India but got a consolation price in a coalition. Hence, decided to do a regime change in BD, unlike Pakistan BD's are all over India, silent assets that can triggered to create unrest. A potential vector.

Md. Younus goes to china and says India's NE is landlocked. The empire is trying to make China think that they have a better chance of success now with them in the North and BD in the South. Tempt China to attack a weaker power and guide it away from Taiwan. A successful invasion of Taiwan will damage the empire permanently even if it does not come to its aid.

China and India, I'm sure are aware of whats going on. but can they control the assets within each of them that have been developed and cultivated and are still invisible. Hope China doesn't take the bait like Russia did? They want to fight the CCP down to the last Indian.

The textbook is the same but the canvas is larger. The countries sought to be controlled are no Germany or Japan and even these were tough to conquer. These three are infinitely a lot more capable and dangerous than the axis powers.

[Cyrano]

Good post Agasthi Bhai !

[ramana]

I am asking the large China Studies interest groups if there has been a study examining the timeline and what steps India and China took to resolve the neo Cuban Missile Crisis of the 21st century.

AFAIK, no such study has been conducted. We have also not done so.

SS, The Galwan incident is as important as the Issue River clashes if not the Cuban Missile Crisis. Galwan was between two nuke powers.
It was resolved quite fast.
It should be studied by our think tanks.
There is a Niagara of literature and films about the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Future generations won't be kind of we neglect to write about how Galwan and Yangtze crisis were resolved.

[ramana]

Please continue Agasthi.
We need to develop more scenarios.

It's possible XJP purges of the PLA were not just for corruption but to weed out the instigators?

[Agasthi]

Thanks Ramana ji!

Further to the above, and to the trade war and the US adopting protectionist policies, feel it is important to look at historical trends. I have made a chart that tracks share of countries and by bloc of the World GDP. It is expressed in US dollars.

https://freeimage.host/i/3aGto8l

Between 1980 and 2025, the share of the American block declined from 74% (USSR was 12.7%) to 53%, a 20% drop but took place over a span of 40+ years. However, in the next 5 years it is projected to further decline by 10%. That is a steep decline, note that the core, USA has more or less maintained its individual share. To note that all of this is in US dollars, if PPP were to be considered that may look a lot more worse.

It is its allies especially Europe which oversaw a precipitous decline. Makes USA berating Europe a lot more sense now. It can't do the same to Japan because it forcefully castrated it with the Plaza Accords. Following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, as we know, the US dollar is backed by US military and economic muscle and Crude Oil serving as the gold of today. Its a system that is built on the 'Maya' of confidence in the US. Following the failure of the Obama-Xi summits, the US side appears to have gone into a serious re-think or panic mode depending on how you look at it. Europe in my opinion appears to be a shell with a nice facade.

EV for transportation has the potential to disrupt for ever the basis of Petro-dollar dominance. If that happens, Middle East will be irrelevant and revert to a backwater. And the threat is more pronounced now. The chart also has indicated some of the American bloc vassals are slowly spinning out of its orbit. This will further accelerate as US becomes more protectionist and is the first to jump ship from the world order it created in 1945. It is trying to save itself first, that's why MAGA struck a cord.

Looking at the link at countries which has a trade surplus with China gives clues on how the next few years might shape up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... s_of_China

A consequence of the trade war may result in China liberalizing its markets to a bloc of its own. Notice a lot of the countries for whom China is important is in the South, China I believe is consciously trying to detach itself from the American markets and possibly be attempting to create an economic bloc of its own with Yuan serving as the reserve currency and keeping out US and Europe from its markets. It has the resources, population, wealth to do it, and nothing of this scale was available to the Soviet Union or to the Axis powers. My belief is that Russia and China will coalesce even further ensuring resources are not constrained by sea lanes or Euro-American sea power.

Ukraine War was an attempt to weaken Russia. In this both, US and China may have won. or maybe the bargain from the summits was Russia to be delivered to the Chinese sphere of influence and India to the American sphere of influence. We may be seeing the birth of two power blocs that are evenly matched.

[Vayutuvan]

I'm coming around to a view that even within China - a seemingly opaque monolith, there are wheels within wheels and often these are fueled from outside forces especially the American empire. The empire realized following the Obama-Xi summits that China is going to be no Japan or Germany.

@Agasthi gaaru, superb post. I had elements of these thoughts but was unable to connect the dots so well.

[A_Gupta]

How a small African nation is blackmailing China. I'm sure Pakistan is watching closely.
https://youtu.be/-eS4R9D77Fw?si=T7lzVe0yfUOzaNtg

[S_Madhukar]

Agasthiji great points.

But I still don’t see China properly tested yet like Russia was physically or leaving Europe to fend for itself when a detente with Russia China can eventually threaten US from both sides. And looking at Lefty-Islamist takeover things can spiral out of control pretty quickly there and China can ride in as saviour creating a Eurasian bloc.

Even the Ukraine war was half hearted - where were the big ticket weapons supply… may be EU failed their part.

Unless this is a tactical US withdrawal to fix itself and roar back 10-20 years later with AI and use the spectre of an ascendant China to use the Cold War template.

Unless Chinese penetration is so deep that the idea of mutual recognition is accepted or is there simply a lack of American leadership quality that prevents more imaginative thinking. If all fails intellectually, gora mindset is to test you physically and cause you pain, I am surprised that isn’t on the cards. To do another Tiannamen or encourage a Taiwan grab to teach a lesson.

Just maybe underlying all of this detente is the recognition that demographics is a problem everywhere and pain tolerance across nations and peoples is low and that AI has moved so fast that managing that should be a priority over other conflicts?

[ShauryaT]

A little bit of Purva-Paksha as it relates to the US-China impasse. Nothing that most here would not know.

The China Game
One of the key underlying causes for the Trump tariff policy is the challenge posed by China. While most other nations responded either passively or with carefully calibrated non-retaliatory measures, China stood out as the exception. With a 4:1 trade surplus with the U.S.—and similar ratios with U.S. allies—China has much to lose in a trade standoff. However, this impasse cannot be explained purely through classical game theory, which assumes rational actors seeking to maximize economic gains and converge at equilibrium.

So why does China persist with a stance that seems economically irrational? To understand this, one must examine China’s modern history and its worldview.

China views itself as the center of the world—a civilization-state whose Han cultural supremacy places it above others. It sees its regional role as that of a suzerain, with neighbors as vassals. Communism has served not only as an ideological tool but also as a mechanism to modernize and “Westernize” in uniquely Chinese ways. The continuity in its authoritarian, hierarchical, disciplined governance—with moral claims to legitimacy—mirrors practices spanning thousands of years.

Key Events in Contemporary Chinese History
• 1950: China invades and occupies Tibet, a region largely populated within 100 miles of the Indian border and over 1,000 miles from China’s core—signaling its ambition and willingness to use force for geopolitical expansionist aims.
• 1953: During the Korean War, a poor and underdeveloped China helped push back U.S. forces to the 38th parallel, despite suffering over 300,000 casualties and risking nuclear retaliation. This demonstrates a will to fight against overwhelming odds.
• 1962: China attacks India in a border war, timed with the Cuban Missile Crisis—showing tactical acuity in exploiting global distraction to resolve regional disputes by force.
• 1969: Despite severe prior dependence on the Soviet Union, Mao still challenges Soviet dominance during the Ussuri River conflict, even risking nuclear retaliation. This marks the second time China confronted a superpower—laying the groundwork for a future U.S. rapprochement.
• 1972: Rapprochement with the U.S. begins. This leads to US disengagement in Vietnam and an opening to the West. Deng Xiaoping famously stated, “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice,” reflecting China’s pragmatic shift away from Maoist rigidity without renouncing Mao himself.
• 1979: China attacks Vietnam, retaliating for Hanoi’s removal of the Khmer Rouge, Beijing’s ally. Vietnam inflicts significant casualties, forcing China to withdraw without achieving its goals. Deng, recognizing the PLA’s limitations, declares victory and refocuses inward.
• 1989: The Tiananmen Square protests are brutally suppressed. Deng managed to maintain engagement with the West by offering hope of eventual liberalization, paving the way for the 1997 Hong Kong transfer. China now pivots toward explosive growth during the post-Cold War globalization phase, branding its rise as "peaceful."
• 1991–2011: China’s WTO accession in 2001 opened the floodgates to foreign investment. Averaging 10%+ GDP growth, it lifts over 800 million people out of poverty and becomes a middle-income country—positioning itself for global expansion.
• 2011 onwards: China's tone shifts. As economic power grows, so does military assertiveness. It begins expanding its presence in the South China Sea, establishes an ADIZ, and launches Belt and Road, investing heavily in global infrastructure. It enhances its hybrid warfare capabilities—combining cyber, space, and information operations—beginning its global push from the Indo-Pacific.

China has also been unafraid to escalate diplomatically over incidents such as the Taiwan Strait Crisis, the Serbian embassy bombing, and the U.S.-China plane collision.

China's Strategic Profile
China is a proud, civilizational state with strategic patience. It is pragmatic, adaptive, and authoritarian. It remains the largest statist-mercantilist power, with ambitions rooted in economic, military, and institutional strength. The Communist Party (CPC) commands the PLA, not the state. China's leadership views the United States as its primary adversary, using what it calls the “five claws”—Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, and India—to contain its rise.

Though admired by many in the Global South, China lacks soft power—the ability to inspire or attract on a civilizational level. Internally, it values order and social control. While it will avoid major wars due to economic risks and an untested military, it is entirely capable of activating nationalist sentiment for escalation. Unlike conventional state actors, China—like the U.S.—pursues non-economic strategic goals, making traditional game theory as applied to other states in this trade war inapplicable. This contest is ultimately about global leadership.

Strategic Scenarios from a Chinese Perspective:
A. Escalate to De-escalate
• Expand the trade war into military and geopolitical spheres
• Enforce the self-declared Chinese ADIZ
• Deepen ties with North Korea, modernize its military
• Ban exports of critical dual-use technologies to the U.S.
• Breach the 12-nautical-mile air and maritime zones around Taiwan
• Enforce the Nine-Dash Line in the South China Sea
• Create a global coalition to counter U.S. hegemony in Asia, Africa, and Latin America
• Formalize an entente with Russia, expanding military reach into the Arctic
• Increase defense investment, especially in A2/AD, maritime forces, and C4ISR systems
• Accelerate decoupling from U.S.-dominated financial systems, asserting control over the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as a security guarantor from the Suez to the South China Sea

This path avoids all-out war but aims to severely dent U.S. dominance and compel Washington to back off or accept strategic concessions—especially on Taiwan. If escalation continues unchecked, it could spiral into Cold War 2.0, and eventually, open conflict.

B. Compromise
• Agree to a 20% reciprocal tariff, halting further escalation
• Gradual economic decoupling with strategic competition intact
• Trade continues under non-MFN conditions, with managed rivalry

C. G2 Grand Bargain
• Acknowledge China’s rise as inevitable
• U.S. retracts from deep involvement in Asia’s landmass and splits Freedom of Navigation (FON) duties
• China agrees not to use force on Taiwan, restrains North Korea, and curbs militarization
• U.S. refrains from arming Taiwan or deep official engagement
• China tolerates FON in the South China Sea, without dropping claims

The CPC gets to showcase parity with the U.S. to its population and global peers. Both parties step back from escalation, recognizing mutual vulnerability.

D. Capitulation
• China yields to U.S. trade and IP demands to avert economic collapse
• Commits (on paper) to reforms, while quietly building internal strength
• Uses time to delink from the West, bide its time, and fight another day

This revised outlook presents a range of plausible paths, with China weighing cost, time, and strategic interest. The game is not just economic—it’s existential.

[Agasthi]

My analysis tells me that China isn't going to get itself physically involved like Russia unless and until it is an existential which makes it easier to commit the population to a 'Patriotic War'. Given China's new found prosperity and one-child families, a war will mean enormous suffering. So far, in the last 10-15 years, it has been more of intimidation tactics and nothing more. In the UPA era it resorted to that, in 2017 - same. However, 2020 in the midst of the Covid, it went horribly wrong. It made things quite crystal clear to China that things can escalate pretty fast and this brings us to the circle within circles.

China-America collusion goes back to the sixties and it is possible that is some of these dealings led to development of assets in PLA circles. Pak army would have certainly helped recruited them. PA would have been the conduit and a double agent. Just like a lot of politically connected Indian kids, same was with Chinese kids who found themselves in the US. Imagine, your only child and heir in the US and now imagine the kind of pressure and manipulation a Chinese official may be subjected to. Any of these assets may have been activated to precipitate a crisis with a power like India that can drag China into a full-fledged war. Explains the multiple purges unleashed by Xi in the PLA.

https://www.voanews.com/a/east-asia-pac ... 93865.html

On the flip side, using PA assets and their own citizens, China was able to politically infiltrate US, Canada, Australia and Germany. We now know how deep it was in Canada, it's not yet in the open how deep it was in the US. But a lot of anti-India propaganda coming from the US was also Chinese money enabled by Pak assets. 9/11 was caused by Pak-Saud assets, but why? Reasons touted are that Pak wanted revenge for abandonment. I believe it is plausible it may be Chinese special ops to tie the US in the ME while it took off without a hindrance. For 20 years, it certainly took off while the US declined remarkably relatively.

USA at the same time will not want to be involved physically anymore. Proxies will be the way to go. Afghanistan was a big drain whose effects has started showing only now. Russia-Ukraine shows it will never get entangled with a major power unless existential. It will want to desperately bleed China. China doesn't have the navy yet to threaten beyond Taiwan so even if China wanted to it can't to a great extent. Contentious borderlands will be the strategy and this is where we will have to look at.

India-BD-Myanmar axis: . It will be safe to assume that the US has developed assets within the India political and military circles. And, these can be used to precipitate a crises with China. Our Eastern theatre is in a bit of flux now. Bangladesh and Myanmar are destabilised. One vector to suck in China and India to a war is along the Burma-BD axis where we have multiple ethnic groups split across borders and a number of rebel groups in Myanmar allied to China and India. Medium likelihood, Catastrophic Impact for all actors.

Russia-Mongolia axis: Weak at the moment. Tempt China to seize former Qing lands and beyond of Russia's far-east. Possible but if Russia caves in will create even a big monster. Outcomes favour China.

Korea-Japan-Taiwan axis: Close allies and non-ethnically related. Good sacrificial pawns. However, economically dependent on China and given their ageing populations and their part in propping up the USD will not have the depth required to have a pro-longed war. They also may have the potential to flip over to China if pushed creating better outcomes for China. not fail-safe.

Vietnam-Philippines-Indonesia axis: Beyond the border war with Vietnam it has been relatively quiet in this axis. The spark maybe provided by the Chinese fishing fleet. That requires either any of these SE actors to physically destroy the vessels, capture the sailors, execute them or capture a few islands in the SCS and execute them. Ethnic Chinese are the 'Banias' in SE Asia. Pogroms can be unleashed. Philippines and Indonesia have been quietly arming themselves and we know Filipinos have long range missiles courtesy India. Plausible deniability for the US. China relatively weaker. A loss of prestige, blockage off sea-trade routes, high increase in insurance on shipping via SCS can cause a lot of china merchantman to go kaput and since US is slowly squeezing its trade flows here and redirecting it to India and others, militarily, sucking China in an island hopping war as the US found out in WW2 is horrific and a logistic nightmare. And like Russia, China will be constrained in using nukes. best possible outcome from a US PoV.

India-Pakistan-Iran-Afghanistan axis - Much has been said and written about it.

From China's PoV, it will seek to tie the US again in the Middle East. Iran just like Pakistan possibly already has chinese designs and if need be will explode Chinese nukes and pass them as a Shia bomb. Syria ruled by ISIS jehadis is another area of plausible deniability where China can cause trouble although the new regime is new and will need to settle down.

[Agasthi]

Just to follow on the above; 2020-2020 saw US get embroiled in ME + Afghanistan following 9/11 as no action meant loss of prestige. But it also set off the relative ascendancy and descendancy of China and US.

In the next 10-20 years, China would have already planned how to tie up the US while presenting a reasonable actor facade. Continental US does not have contentious borders at the moment. It may have to be manufactured.

Woke 2.0 - Given how the white discourse is going, the next iteration is going to be virulent as in ethnic unrest. All US patriotism depends on the money flowing. As the trickle down slows and from various reports the US populations have been at varying levels of stress. You will see white only groups funded to create exclusionary zones. Targeted ethnic attacks on Police will increase and Funds will be given to develop calls forGreater Mexico or Wakanda.

Given the demographic transitions underway in US and Canada and Europe. China’s best bet is to create ethnic strife within. There will be calls for combining parts of Canada and US into a new White super state.

It can create ethnic strife in parts of Europe to sucker the US into a war.

If that happens, China will attempt to subvert or make vassals out of Australia and NZ. Both these countries are less populous and already dependant on China. With this America will be removed from this side of Pacific.

This is when we will start to see China intervene militarily for domination not before.

[Manish_P]

..
Contentious borderlands will be the strategy and this is where we will have to look at.

...

Thanks for detailing out the various fronts. Learnt a lot.

[Agasthi]

Thanks Manish ji!

Now coming to India, where do we stand. We are literally between the devil and the deep sea. One wants our soul and the other our soil. Both like the idea of us being servants. Navigating this is going to be tricky and we seem to be doing this fine so far to the best of our abilities.

Our experience in Sri Lanka indicates that we can end up being double crossed and ethnic relationships constrain our actions arc. BD -Myanmar axis is one such and we should fight any war here with proxies alone and commit our regulars as non state actors if required.

Pakistan is an existential threat and we should accelerate insurgencies there. We have a 2-3 year window where China and US are not taking eyes off each other. In this time period, Pak should break up into as many pieces as possible. We need to Chinese salami slicing on the LOC to keep intense pressure on pak army and give BLA and TTP chance for better success.

No pak no Kashmir dispute. No IWT. We need to extend the rajasthan canal to an independent Sindh and divert waters to Sindh bypassing Punjab. Keeps Punjab in check and land locked. Is it easier said than done, yes but the timing looks ripe

We secure our neighbourhood, less chance of getting dragged into someone else’s war.

[Hriday]

Deans wrote the below in 2017.
viewtopic.php?p=2150186#p2150186

China's economy is far more vulnerable than ours, in a war, as it is more export led and dangerously over-leveraged compared to ours. Any shock, like a war, might be the tipping point, that crashes their economy.

As the intense trade war between USA and China is continuing how much damage will happen to China?

Some points by me regarding the above question; even India with around 60% of population with very low income, successfully managed the effects of Covid pandemic with free rations. Economy suffered but it didn't create much shock to the society.

But for China Deans used the words such as tipping point and crash of the economy. Can Deans ji or anyone knowledgeable describes what it meant? Like happened in Covid, is it temporary?

I had read about the ghost cities in China, their practice of inflating the economic numbers etc but don't have an in-depth knowledge. Deans is from IIM and had written a book on Chinese economic destruction. But I can't find that book in internet.

[Hriday]

Aravind, @aaravind in X is followed by many high profile people including minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Krishnamurthy Subramanian (former CEA) etc..

Take it FWIW,
https://x.com/aravind/status/1912771569 ... NQLgA&s=19

Now y'all know how I "predict" Trump presidency, trade war by him, a "manufactured recession", a war imposed by China on India before 2029, and eventual collapse of CCP a year or so ago. It's just AI. They can access the future and predict it

x.com/aravind/status…

https://x.com/aravind/status/1912776527 ... 01o-g&s=19

This one by Llama 3.3 70B model trained and "prompt-unshackled" by me to tell me about the future. I am now working on another model that can predict patient outcomes from the future based on paitent data better than any doctor can. I think the LLMs can really "see" future

By first coaxing an LLM into stop saying "I have training data only until YYYY year", then coaxing it to slowly give out information on current events correctly, we can make it start predicting the future.

Same was said in Oct 23 when I said Trump will be a presidential nominee and will be elected president again in 2024 on a deal with the deep state. When he gets elected, when the recession hits, when China is in serious trouble, when CCP uses conflict to save itself, it may all look natural then, but just out of the hat now.

[bala]

There is much talk of rare earth RE mining and nations wanting to remove themselves from Chinese supply of rare earth. Why is it so important (of rare earths) - they are used in magnets, which are necessary for electrical vehicles. China imports major rare earths from around the globe and refines them. The refined product is in high demand worldwide. China controls roughly 70% of supply worldwide. Mining is fraught with pollution to sift the rare earth material from dirt. Nations that mine rare earth are like Africa, Myanmar (which has become a major supplier for China's EV miracle) and others. China consumes roughly 44% of rare earths, the rest it sells. Refining is based on dangerous chemicals. Rare earth supply has become a political issue. The Ukraine-Russia war highlights the prize of rare earth control wherein US now is talking with both Ukraine and Russia for mining rare earth.

myanmar rare earth story: china staged many issurrections in myanmar and strong armed its way to get the supply from Myanmar. Most of the RE supply is used to create EV cars for China.

// My observation: are clean energy source electric cars really clean? How long will it take the US to interrupt this cozy deal between Myanmar and China. Or India?

youtube.com/watch?v=f1s4O22Wv7Y

[drnayar]

How many poor people are there in China? Why are so many low-income people so rarely seen in the mainstream media?

1.2 million resumes for one company

shocking to say the least ! .. and they say India is poor underdeveloped

chinas actual GDP growth is 2- 5 % !!

pervasive Chinese censorship of the suffering of the lower class

and here it is India has a much more inclusive system compared to the Chinese , it is an extractive system

[JE Menon]

I'm coming around to a view that even within China - a seemingly opaque monolith, there are wheels within wheels and often these are fueled from outside forces especially the American empire. The empire realized following the Obama-Xi summits that China is going to be no Japan or Germany.

2020 - Covid - Wuhan - virus escapes but is a lab that was funded by Americans as a sign of good will gesture but the blame was laid on the doors of China. It set the stage for special operations to try browbeat China economically and make it a secondary power kowtowing to the American empire. China investments in tech starts to grow exponentially.

Outstanding post. Thank you!

[Manish_P]

...
We are literally between the devil and the deep sea. One wants our soul and the other our soil. Both like the idea of us being servants....

Agasthi ji, perfectly, and may i say, so beautifully put. This single seemingly simple sentence crafted by you encompasses many a layer of thoughts, actions and consequences.

I would even brashly say that more than merely liking the idea of us being servants, it is their strong belief that they are a superior civilization and hence have a right to demand that we be their slaves and also be thankful to them.

...
Pakistan is an existential threat and we should accelerate insurgencies there. We have a 2-3 year window where China and US are not taking eyes off each other. In this time period, Pak should break up into as many pieces as possible...

Glad to see the clarity of thought, the recognition of the urgency of the situation and the opportunity presented by the circumstances.

For some time now i have despaired that even here on BRF there has been a marked lessening of focus on Pakistan at the cost of increasing it on China. Almost like 'Oh, it's a failed state and we don't need to do anything. Woh to apni maut khud marega'.

While there is no denying the necessity of keeping China at bay, we need ensure the complete cutting off and securing the pak front before turning full focus on the eastern side. Pakistan must be broken into 2-3 pieces at least and completely cut-off from a direct land-link with China... If the meantime if the US-China confrontation continues and hopefully worsens then even better for us.

[Agasthi]

Pakistan is an existential threat and we should accelerate insurgencies there. We have a 2-3 year window where China and US are not taking eyes off each other. In this time period, Pak should break up into as many pieces as possible. We need to Chinese salami slicing on the LOC to keep intense pressure on pak army and give BLA and TTP chance for better success.

With the unfortunate terrorist attack in Pahalgam, would like to reiterate the above. We have a 2-3 year window and maybe more and sadly incidents like these will only increase especially with the opening of the direct rail route between Kashmir and the northern plains. The rail route now allows large scale civilian movement around the year and to a flea-infested Paki/Kashmiri brain represents a threat of demographic displacement.

Understand that this is the China thread but it is related. Pakistan is a mercenary for anti-indian entities and sooner we help cause its demise better it will be for us. Pakistan is the only muslim entity in the sub-continent with a state capability (BD or Maldives don't come close) and as such it is imperative we de-fang it. It will serve as a leverage for both China and US.

The last attack targeting civilians was in June 2024 in Reasi, Jammu and this is in Kashmir now with larger casualties. It appears the terrorists may have gotten carried away to create a larger casualty count than Pak army would have liked. The latest statements coming from Pakistan betray some panic.

These incidents should be used to move the LoC west (faster after such attacks, slower otherwise) and every time it moves west, pakis of all hues should be slaughtered in those areas. I sincerely hope, India resorts to such tactics than something spectacular like Balakot. We need to occupy ground. Loss of territory will twist and traumatize the institutional memory of Pak army and will cause them to make more mistakes that we can use to accelerate their demise.

[uddu]

Pakistan is a symptom of the problem. There is only one solution to this old problem and the solution is given by none other than Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj. Hindavi Swarajya. Nation must retake the lost land and expand westward and eastward.
Political leadership should come out and start public announcement that agreeing to two nation theory was a mistake. Henceforth there exist no such agreement on two nation theory. Its null and void. Then starts the nations objective to retake what belongs to her.
It need to be a comprehensive change from Education to Law. The days where it says, We did not change a single line should be behind us. Internal law and order need cleaned up with stringent provisions especially the huge rise in religious hate crimes happening. which no Judges be allowed to dilute. Crooked politicians and Media that bats for terrorists should be shown their place in Jail.
All this need leadership equivalent to that of Shivajji Maharaj to lead the nation. Its our own leaders who dilute peoples will to fight and come up with false sense of security with No Era of War comments. Ranting over.
What mostly we could expect is a surgical strike.

[vimal]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/ch ... 025-04-30/

China's factory activity falls sharply as Trump tariffs bite

BEIJING, April 30 (Reuters) - China's factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in 16 months in April, a factory survey showed on Wednesday, keeping alive calls for further stimulus as Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" package of tariffs snapped two months of recovery.
The reading contrasts with Chinese officials' conviction that the world's second-largest economy is well placed to absorb the U.S. trade shock and suggests domestic demand remains weak as factory owners struggle to find alternative buyers overseas.

Trump was right, he was able to knee cap the Chins with little effect on the US.

[A_Gupta]

Puff piece? South China Morning Post, citing an article in "a Chinese military magazine".
India’s Prachand combat helicopter ‘unable to compete’ with China’s Z-10: report
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/militar ... local-z-10

[bala]

Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan provides his take on 2025 China white paper on security.

In 2019 China's security posture was in keeping with their regions and dealing with external threats. However since then there has been tectonic changes - their export model is crumbling and the real estate market has tanked. They currently have 6.5 crore buildings vacant. For their High speed bullet train, only shanghai to beijing is having customers others are going empty. Many airports are empty with passengers. The BRI effort is a total write off, since China is not making any money, in fact it has spent money creating infrastructure which is never going to be paid back. COVID has devasted their population. Working age populations is almost retirement age, population is aging fast, fertility rates are dangerously low. Unemployment is high among youth. There was a CCP meeting recently without Emperor but Hu Jin Tao was present. There was some discussion on sidelining Emperor.

There is an internal struggle in CCP, the relationship of Emperor with PLA is not good. Emperor wants a regional security with China heading it. 14 bordering nations have issues with China. Bhutan and India are still unresolved on border issues. China wants a corridor via afghanistan into pak land but the two nations are at logger head. China wants a seemless entry right into Iran.

Operations sindoor has exposed the China might in Pak land. Even US was exposed in Jacobabad.

China’s 2025 National Security White Paper | Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan | Abhishek Tiwary

[SRajesh]

Is there any truth to these Youtube reports of:
1. China's Covid death runs into few hundred million
2. Actual population is around 800 million
3. Streets and Malls are empty in most cities
4. Factories are shutting down
And if these are true can they field a big army in case of conflict??
Just like their Mizzilies their Army numbers are also Dud and they fold up if Unkil gives a good rap!!

[bala]

Why is China rattled?

Herein Prof Srikanth Kondapalli chats with Lt. Gen P R Shankar (retd). He is an expert on China. He lays out the entire political and power wielding factions of China. Many nuggets of information for those who follow China intimately. China is now caught in dilemma with its support of Pak land against India and the need to do business with India. These are opposing each other and China cannot make headway in the later. He also talks about the Emperor and PLA which are at odds with each other. India has a huge border with China and many things are unsettled with the neighbor. China has huge resources, a gigantic nuclear arsenal, missiles and more, its posture is offensive and it is aggressive in the economic sphere. However the US is currently at odds with China and realizes the scope of China in world affairs. US is trying to clip the economic clout of China and is actively involved in defending Taiwan against China designs. The US effort is good for India since it blunts the neighbor's aggressive designs on India.

Caution: Prof Srikanth Kondapalli talk is very academic and might bore some folks.



// personally I feel Tibet is the key for India to solve many issues with China. Freeing Tibet should be the first job for India. How this will be achieved is tricky, maybe US can be enlisted in this effort. Also China itself is undergoing turmoil and like former Soviet Union may disintegrate eventually.

[bala]

In this YT the Lt Gen Shankar provides a clear argument that lays the groundwork for why Tibet is critical for India's security. Holding tibet threatens the chicken neck of India near Bhutan.

China will never negotiate with anyone on Tibet. Negotiations are a waste of time. In 1912 Chiang Kai Shek declared Tibet as part of China. The people of Tibet are also ambivalent, in prior years they would arrive in India by the thousands now it is down to a trickle of 100 or so. Some tibetans want independence, other are happy with the occupation and consider it ideal and then there are others who want to get on with life. Without a strong independence streak, the Tibetan revolt is a pipedream. Even if CCP falls, China will not relinquish its claims on Tibet. Taiwan considers Tibet as China. Tibet is the water tower of Asia and major Rivers have a source in Tibet and the strategic land area is what China wants. It also has mineral deposits which are huge and uptapped.

Acension of Tibet to China in 1951, was forced by China on Tibet (by using a Tibetan person devoid of authority) to sign a 17 point agreement. The opening paragraph says, "China did not enjoy effective control for over the last hundred years and more", kya laughable statement.

You need to understand the geography of Tibet and the land up north, Xinjiang. The Pamir Knot is a junction where many mountain ranges originate. There are the Hindu Kush range into Pak land and another in Afghanistan. However Tibet has 3 ranges - Himalayas, Karakoram, Kuen Lun - with himalayas the tallest and sloping downwards towards the north to Kuen Lun range. From Kuen Lun onwards is Xinjian or East Turkmenistan with two ranges - Altyn tagh and Tien Shan. The ranges cause a problem for China to access Xinjiang from Tibet and the only conduit is Aksai Chin. Aksai Chin (kashgar) is the only connect from Tibet to Xinjiang which has a chinese road access. The Brits have the Johnson Line which is on the Sino Indian border and includes Aksai Chin as Indian. Then there is the McCartney MacDonald line until 1959 was violated by the Chinese. The Sinkiang Tibet Road cuts the McCartney MacDonald line and Johnson line. China is in illegal possesion of Aksai Chin, gilgit baltistan, shaksgam valley and it has violated the Indo-Tibet LoC numerous times.

In the 80s India did not consider Tibet as part of China. In 2003 Vajapayee designated a point in Sikkim state and on the Chinese side they designated a point and said border trade can occur between the two nations. This was construed by the Chinese as acceptance of Tibet belonging to China. After such an agreement, then China changed the goalposts and insisted that Arunachal Pradesh is theirs. Prior to this, China did not demand Arunachal Pradesh. There is a map with Five fingers of Mao - Aksai Chin, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh - bandied by the Chinese. Arunchal Pradesh or South Tibet (a term china created) is the place where the 6 th dalai lama was born in Tawang. Tawang is part of Arunchal Pradesh. China did not object to Arunchal Pradesh when it formed in the 80s since India did not recognize Tibet as China. India should emphatically say that Tibet is not part of China, no one china policy.

Until 2008 the Tibetans wanted independence. Beijing olympics changed things for China as the world leader. Since then Tibetan independence was put on the back burner. Post Sindoor India has to have a vision to get Tibet independent. Shankar says India has to start a process to get to the goal of independent Tibet. It requires 3 major players to be in total synch - India, Tibet (true denizens) and US to take on China. China is in illegal possesion of gilgit baltistan, shaksgam valley, it has violated the LoC numerous times. It has barged into Nepal, BD and Pak and threatens India. China creates issues in manipur, nagaland and myanmar all inimical towards India. Sri Lanka is used as parking spot for Chinese Navy. In Nepal it created its own Buddha and now claims Buddhism as chinese. The US has a Tibet Policy and support act (2019) by DJT V1.0 and it states that Dalai Lama can appoint the next dalai lama, not china. India has to get away from Dharma and do something.

Please note that taking on Tibet kinetically is fraught with issues, china has fortified itself to the gills. There is a slight opportunity when CCP breaks up in china and when it goes down economically for India to take some critical areas back that includes Aksai Chin, all the rivers and its origin points in Tibet. Operation Sindoor has just shown how bad Chinese equiptment fared. This is a huge opening for India to assert itself. It needs to set the process in play, with the help of the US and dissident Tibetans worldwide. First declare that Tibet is not part of China and let the takleef set in to Emperor and CCP.

Future of tibet / Lt Gen PR Shankar

[bala]

Don't know how true this news, but this is stunning news - Xi jinping is under house arrest.

Sumit Peer and Sree Iyer are reporting: Apparently Belarus chief had to meet Xi at his house. Xi has been missing for 15 days now.

Xi का House Arrest