2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[chetak]

- Poor booth management. Don't need RSS?
- Hubris. Arrogance. Why was Yogi Adityanath not seen in campaign? Don't we know the reasons?

Where is this coming from?
Yogi did campaign. And what's up with RSS pulling back? Its a stretch to think that Nadda's comment will make an entire organization cut off its nose to spite its face

Prem Kumar ji,


Yogiji had given a list of candidates to the center recommending them for seats because they had their ear to the ground and were clear about what was required to be done but the list was completely ignored.

The anti incumbency factor was known to everyone, which is exactly why there were so many imports of outsiders into the BJP.

what did anyone expect yogiji to do, he still went out and campaigned like a trooper

[Pradyut]

- Poor booth management. Don't need RSS?
- Hubris. Arrogance. Why was Yogi Adityanath not seen in campaign? Don't we know the reasons?

Where is this coming from?

Yogi did campaign. And what's up with RSS pulling back? Its a stretch to think that Nadda's comment will make an entire organization cut off its nose to spite its face

Coming from the ground. My circle in UP.

[Prem Kumar]

Prem Kumar ji,

Yogiji had given a list of candidates to the center recommending them for seats because they had their ear to the ground and were clear about what was required to be done but the list was completely ignored.

Yes, I heard this from Jaipur Dialogues. If true, this shows Modi + Shah in poor light. 2 Gujjus sitting in Delhi, claiming to know more than Yogi in UP!

But, even with this, its baffling to see say Smriti Irani lose in Amethi, the loss in Ayodhya, Rahul sweeping Rae Bareilly

Something is very off in UP, especially after giving a thumping win for Yogi in his 2nd term!

Seriously, what more does UP want after everything Yogi & Modi have done for them?

[Srutayus]

Where is this coming from?

Yogi did campaign. And what's up with RSS pulling back? It's a stretch to think that Nadda's comment will make an entire organization cut off its nose to spite its face

100% agree. Let us not fall for these purported causes going around on SM.
Ask yourself this: With all the filth uttered against Sanatana Dharma, Dharmic rulers, etc., by the INDI leaders and their broader ecosystem, did almost 50% of Hindu voters vote for them?

The malaise is deeper and will require a concerted effort, not just by the BJP and RSS. But don't lose hope—we have come this far. I never thought this was possible in 2013.

[chetak]

Prem Kumar ji,

Yogiji had given a list of candidates to the center recommending them for seats because they had their ear to the ground and were clear about what was required to be done but the list was completely ignored.

Yes, I heard this from Jaipur Dialogues. If true, this shows Modi + Shah in poor light. 2 Gujjus sitting in Delhi, claiming to know more than Yogi in UP!

But, even with this, its baffling to see say Smriti Irani lose in Amethi, the loss in Ayodhya, Rahul sweeping Rae Bareilly

Something is very off in UP, especially after giving a thumping win for Yogi in his 2nd term!

Seriously, what more does UP want after everything Yogi & Modi have done for them?

Prem Kumar ji,


Apparently, some are not satisfied with the sab ka vikas because they feel that they have not been accommodated per their perceived stature and size of their community.


This is a common complaint, since civilization began

[vimal]

If I were a politician I’d spend time mollycoddling my peaceful vote bank who will be solidly behind me instead of these egoistic bunch of pagan castes each with their own axe to grind.

If Ram Mandir and development in Ayodhya and Amethi is not enough then nothing else will matter. You deserve to stew in the filth of Bimaru states.

[Ambar]

Where is this coming from?

Yogi did campaign. And what's up with RSS pulling back? It's a stretch to think that Nadda's comment will make an entire organization cut off its nose to spite its face

100% agree. Let us not fall for these purported causes going around on SM.
Ask yourself this: With all the filth uttered against Sanatana Dharma, Dharmic rulers, etc., by the INDI leaders and their broader ecosystem, did almost 50% of Hindu voters vote for them?

The malaise is deeper and will require a concerted effort, not just by the BJP and RSS. But don't lose hope—we have come this far. I never thought this was possible in 2013.

It has been in the news for two months now. I'll give you a good example, BJP HC parachuted Krupashankar Singh from Mumbai to fight in Jaunpur, UP. Who is Kripashankar Singh you ask? This is the same crook who stood on the stage with Digvijay Singh and Mahesh Bhatt in 2010 during Aziz Burney's '26/11 - RSS ki Saazish' book launch! This is what earned BJP the monicker of "washing machine"! UPA ran a flawless campaign in UP, BJP imploded because they repeated the 2022 Karnataka debacle by ignoring local feedback. If 129/133 new faces brought from outside the party have failed then it is time for some deep introspection, which unfortunately in this case is too little too late.

[Cain Marko]

The number one priority now should be to keep INDI away from power center. Best options for desh now:
1. MAD steps down in favor of Gadkari, who can get pawar, and even uddhav on board. This will consolidate the NDA.
2. MAD offers to step down after 2 years in deference to Modi's age limit rule.

I prefer #1.

[pravula]

It has to be #2. Set the next rung of leaders up for success...

[syam]

I don't think it's ego or something personal. Cuz BJP partnerrd with TDP despite personal humiliation by TDP during first term.
If Shah is full of ego, he wouldn't have let CBN come anywhere near to him.
And another thing about AP is, BJP changed many seats at last minute and give them to tdp imports.

Some one fooled Modi-Shah big time. Everyone says Nadda is Shah's man. But I am having serious doubts.
No way Shah would destroy the party he painstakingly built for more than 6 years.

[chetak]

Letter written by Shehzad Poonawalla, the BJP spokie to BJP supporters

Dear BJP Supporters & Modi Ka Parivar,

I understand the disappointment. It is akin to the student who wants 100% but gets 90% and feels sad despite topping the university exams.

But remember - in our worst case scenario we - just the BJP- are at 245+ & Congress in its best case scenario is only 99.

This is the third time the Congress hasn’t crossed 100 seats. The BJP alone by itself is more than the dotted INDI alliance (234). Our worst is twice their best performance.

The NDA at 291 and counting is comfortably poised to form its government yet again (3rd time) under leadership of PM @narendramodi ji
The BJP has also added and increased its vote share in 2024 as compared to 2019. Clearly this is a vote for pro-incumbency and not anti-incumbency.

The BJP roared in Odisha & Arunachal. We are forming governments there. Odisha victory in State Assembly is historic & so is the sweep in Loksabha in Odisha. Returning to power in Arunachal is historic.

Opening our account in Kerala despite the demographic situation is historic.

We grew substantially in Telangana. We have expanded in Tamil Nadu & were second place in 11 seats.

NDA has dominated in Andhra too. We will have a state government there.

We achieved all this despite the fact that the dotted INDI alliance played the most sinister divisive caste card to splinter Hindus & heavily polarised the other side using “vote jihad” card.

Yes- we will feel that disappointment. We will introspect even in our victory even as Congress gloats in defeat.

Yes it might hurt a bit. But there are two ways of looking at this.

One: We can let this burden of not reaching our own high expectations to weigh us down & give up. We surrender to their agenda to divide & balkanise us. We bend before their fake narratives to break Hindu society and Bharat.

Or

Two: We let this pain be a reminder of how we need to be more united than ever before & not allow them to divide us in caste lines. We need this day to be a reminder for all of us - to work harder for the next 1826 days (5 years). We don’t start tomorrow. We start today. We start now. We go harder and stronger against their plan to divide. We arise and awaken. We never surrender. We UNITE. We don’t leave anything to chance. We go to every house. We go to every street. We dominate every platform. We go to every individual.

We must unmask their plan to divide Hindus & unite the votebank. Today is not the day to stop. It is the day to renew our Sankalp.

I say this as a Bharatiya Muslim as much as I say it as a foot soldier of BJP. I can see them divide Hindus. Don’t..Don’t let them divide on castes. Don’t let them prevail.

Arise awake and stop not till the goal is reached.

Be unapologetic

[chetak]

Election 2024: Modi declared BJP candidate for PM


this should put many ants in the congi pants

[sanjayc]

I am still not convinced about all the explanations about BJP's performance. These are all looking forced and after-thoughts. Nothing can explain the sudden loss, especially when there was not even a whiff of any undercurrent against BJP before elections. Even pre-poll surveys couldn't find any public sentiment against BJP -- in fact, they found voters to be overwhelmingly in favor of Modi and BJP.

The only explanation in this scenario can be EVM manipulation by external forces. The whole voting pattern is as if someone is cleverly gaming the EVMs (letting BJP sweep in small states like HP and Uttarakhand, while deftly taking away vote share from large states which matter). Something is off. Last time this happened was in 2004 UPA govt when all pre-poll surveys went wrong and Cong emerged winner, shocking everyone. Interestingly, 2004 was also the first General Election in India where the EVMs were used in all Parliamentary Constituencies in the country. And the results shocked everyone, with Congress fortunes turned overnight when BJP was widely expected to win.

Same thing has happened now. If Modi is smart, in next elections he "must" ensure full counting of VVPT slips for each EVM. Only the paranoid survive. When the slips are already printed and stored, there will be hardly any extra cost in physically counting them. Otherwise, I absolutely guarantee you BJP will lose the next election. Rahul's secret trips to US, the cocky body language of Congress leaders even after pre-poll surveys showed Congress rout (this many other people in my family and friends commented upon), and totally unexpected results -- I have a very strong gut-feel of Gora fingers manipulating EVMs but keeping the manipulation below threshold of suspicion.

[vimal]

Rahul Gandhi declared PM candidate by Congress.



PM = Parliament Member

[Vayutuvan]

I had hoped Ayodhya temple would be a rallying factor, but that was not to be.

It couldn't be. It was a done deal.

[Vayutuvan]

Something is off. Last time this happened was in 2004 UPA govt when all pre-poll surveys went wrong and Cong emerged winner, shocking everyone. Same thing happened now. If Modi is smart, in next elections he "must" ensure full counting of VVPT slips for each EVM.

It is possible that civil servants wanted Modi out. They are being made irrelevant with digitization and chabi tightening. They are also losing their main income (salary is their pocket money). Also might have been a little insecure. Since agniveer scheme got implemented, they might have felt that similar scheme for Civil Services also can become a reality. Then they are toast. Other than 95%ile UPSC folks, what exactly the rank and file civil servants and rank promoties contributing the progress of Bharat?!

[sanjayc]

^^ Nope. No argument is convincing -- the loss is totally irrational and without any cause. There was not even a whiff of any sentiment against BJP in last few months. The only explanation is EVM. I don't know how it is being done by Whites, but I am dead sure now it is being done. Full counting of VVPT slips is the only solution, if BJP wants to win the next elections. I guarantee you BJP loss if this is not done. With this elections, the white manipulators have set the narrative of loss in Modi's popularity. Next elections, they will give clean sweep to Congress. They are making it look like a natural progression. It is very clear where whites are taking this -- RG as PM

[Vayutuvan]

- Poor booth management. Don't need RSS?
- Hubris. Arrogance. Why was Yogi Adityanath not seen in campaign? Don't we know the reasons?

Where is this coming from?

I also heard this from sitabuldi paan wallas (and a third cousin four times removed - literally). RSS didn't want Modi ji is the rumor.

[Ambar]

If Modi is smart, in next elections he "must" ensure full counting of VVPT slips for each EVM. Only the paranoid survive. When the slips are already printed and stored, there will be hardly any extra cost in physically counting them. Otherwise, I absolutely guarantee you BJP will lose the next election.

Modi is almost 74 yrs old, he will certainly not contest the next election at the age of 79. Question is if he manages to cobble up the coalition will he complete the full term or will he step down after 2 yrs and pass the baton. The bigger problem in front of BJP is finding future leaders, with the large defeat in UP, and without center's full support, Yogi comes under threat from his own MLAs in UP, something they had tried and failed before UP assembly elections. Fadnavis' ambitions have taken a huge beating and Annamalai could not break the duck. Where will the party find their next Modi with a pan-India appeal?

The EVM was not the problem,there were signs right from the first phase that it was going to be a difficult election. Not even in 2014 did Modi so openly attack the muslim community in his speeches as this time, that should have been a clue that it was going to be a very rocky road.

[bala]

Yes something is very fishy with the Samajwadi Party election sweep in UP. They could have the same person with multiple IDs voting. Something does not sound right. I know via Rajiv Malhotra, there are a lot of demographic profiling going with data being collected in remote areas of India under the guise of start-ups (funded by foreigners).

[Vayutuvan]

It has to be #2. Set the next rung of leaders up for success...

Those with the required amount karishma, Fadnavis, Yogi, and Annamalai, and S. Irani had a poor showing. Only Nitin Gadkari did well. S. Jaishankar, NS, Piyush Goyal, and A. Vaishnaw, S. Irani etc. are all policy wonks with no grassroots support.

Where is the deep bench if you take out the old guard like RNS, AS, and ofc Modi ji?!

[sanjayc]

If Modi is smart, in next elections he "must" ensure full counting of VVPT slips for each EVM. Only the paranoid survive. When the slips are already printed and stored, there will be hardly any extra cost in physically counting them. Otherwise, I absolutely guarantee you BJP will lose the next election.

Modi is almost 74 yrs old, he will certainly not contest the next election at the age of 79. Question is if he manages to cobble up the coalition will he complete the full term or will he step down after 2 yrs and pass the baton. The bigger problem in front of BJP is finding future leaders, with the large defeat in UP, and without center's full support, Yogi comes under threat from his own MLAs in UP, something they had tried and failed before UP assembly elections. Fadnavis' ambitions have taken a huge beating and Annamalai could not break the duck. Where will the party find their next Modi with a pan-India appeal?

The EVM was not the problem,there were signs right from the first phase that it was going to be a difficult election. Not even in 2014 did Modi so openly attack the muslim community in his speeches as this time, that should have been a clue that it was going to be a very rocky road.

^^ Sorry, I am not convinced. Did anyone till yesterday ever claim these were going to be "difficult election" for BJP? On the contrary, it was widely assumed to be a clean sweep for BJP. This explanation is an afterthought. Doesn't wash.

[sanjayc]

Where is this coming from?

I also heard this from sitabuldi paan wallas (and a third cousin four times removed - literally). RSS didn't want Modi ji is the rumor.

You mean RSS did not want Modi in UP, Maharashtra and W Bengal, but wanted Modi in Odisha, MP, HP and Uttarakhand?

[Vayutuvan]

You mean RSS did not want Modi in UP, Maharashtra and W Bengal, but wanted Modi in Odisha, MP, HP and Uttarakhand?

As the PM.

[AkshaySG]

From laughing at EVM hack theories to making them... What a difference 24 hrs makes

Pollsters /exit polls, general "mahaul" is no guarantee of actual seat conversion and this has been repeatedly proven in hundreds of elections all round the world

Parties get overconfident, Polls start amplifying echo chambers and then the real vote count shocks everyone.

[sanman]

Jobs are a key issue insufficiently addressed by BJP/NDA.

In a sense, 2024 elections were like "India Shining 2.0" -- BJP has been given a wake-up call by an electorate that badly wants jobs.

India joining exclusive international clubs, and being sought for international mediation, and claiming international stature is not enough to separate the ordinary aam aadmi from his basic needs to feed his family and keep a roof over his head.

Of course, when aam aadmi vote for Samajwadi & TDP in frustration, they don't seem to adequately understand that Samajwadi & TDP don't have any ability to create jobs either.

[SRajesh]

The number one priority now should be to keep INDI away from power center. Best options for desh now:
1. MAD steps down in favor of Gadkari, who can get pawar, and even uddhav on board. This will consolidate the NDA.
2. MAD offers to step down after 2 years in deference to Modi's age limit rule.

I prefer #1.

I prefer 2 as an orderly handover of baton

[syam]

^^ Nope. No argument is convincing -- the loss is totally irrational and without any cause. There was not even a whiff of any sentiment against BJP in last few months. The only explanation is EVM. I don't know how it is being done by Whites, but I am dead sure now it is being done. Full counting of VVPT slips is the only solution, if BJP wants to win the next elections. I guarantee you BJP loss if this is not done. With this elections, the white manipulators have set the narrative of loss in Modi's popularity. Next elections, they will give clean sweep to Congress. They are making it look like a natural progression.

Our Intel agencies are not that great. But at least, please give them some credit.
It's simply imposible to fix the machines without getting caught. Some one would have noticed it at worst time. Everything will fall apart.
Congi+ really pulled off great social engineering feat. We have to acknowledge it.
Jai Ramesh is like typical congi. They are experts at presenting even 0 as great number. Everything aligned and we will mistake it for their brilliance.
Their handlers might have involved themselves in this elections directly. Probably used tools like how CA did back in the day. They have full access to Indian voter behaviour data through all social media.
Blaming the machine easier route. We have to look at much bigger picture.

[syam]

Amit Shah is 59 years old. He can keep the machine running until next Modi picks it up.
Yogi is 8 years younger to him. So the transition will be very smooth if Yogi can recover from this.
Annamalai is too young. The Darbaris will eat him up.

[A_Gupta]

> . Full counting of VVPT slips is the only solution, if BJP wants to win the next elections.

How do they game the full VVPAT counting of 5% or something like that of randomly chosen polling stations?

[sanman]

Amit Shah is 59 years old. He can keep the machine running until next Modi picks it up.
Yogi is 8 years younger to him. So the transition will be very smooth if Yogi can recover from this.
Annamalai is too young. The Darbaris will eat him up.

Yogi is not suitable for national leadership. He's too headstrong. He's too religious.

Under him, he would go full theocratic and open up all sorts of fissures beyond cow belt that would isolate BJP.

He's not the kind of guy who can run a coalition. He would be completely incapable of that.

He's also a micro-manager rather than a delegator, and that can't be done for a nation as large as India.

[vijayk]

It's not EVM guys!
Its BJP complacency
It's not addressing some important concerns of medium and small industries getting crushed and job losses or unemployment not being addressed
It's free stuff offered
It's SCs jumping from Mayawati to Alliance for reservations
It's BJP machinery getting corrupted too.

[RCase]

Plan A was to get a super majority and put in place all the hard decisions easily.

Plan B could be to get a few emotive decisions that could be a rallying point within 2 years. For e.g.:
1. Retaking PoK
2. Hindu religious places autonomy
3. NRC
4. Conviction/ punishment of big time crooks, especially in opposition parties .
5. Mathura/ Kashi etc.
6. One nation, one voting.

and then have a midterm poll that will return BJP in a thumping majority and then take up all the hard decisions.

[A_Gupta]

Suppose the psephologists had said in January 2024 that there is a strong anti-incumbency feeling. Then you'd be overjoyed today that BJP/NDA overcame anti-incumbency.

But the psephologists did not see such a feeling? Well, it is more likely that the psephologists are incompetent than the EVMs are crap.

I also remember that in January or thereabouts, every commentator I saw said that is it unlikely, e.g., that Annamalai will win in Tamil Nadu; the main achievement will be that the BJP will be the second largest vote getter in Tamil Nadu and will increase its share of the vote. In fact the discussion was that if Annamalai wins, his work of campaigning in Tamil Nadu will be distracted because of his responsibilities in Delhi. The real action will come in the 2026 state elections. etc., etc.

By May 1st, that had turned into Annamalai is guaranteed to win in Coimbatore. I don't know where that came from.

----

If we're talking about misinformation/false information, it was all the hype about a landslide in favor of the BJP. That hype turned even a victory into a defeat. And yes, the BJP contributed majorly to this.

----

The youtubers who go around interviewing seemingly random people on the street now we know without doubt that they staged the people they interviewed; and they did so to win their clicks and revenue, and not for presenting a fair picture of opinion.

The problem is that now all data needs to be reexamined for validity. The quality of information we were fed in the run up to the election was poor.


If the psephologists' data is not good, how good is the government's data about achievements on the ground? In some things there can be mass independent verification, e.g., by satellite; but not in all.
----

Just as PM Modi's popularity did not rub off on to the BJP, shraddha in Sri Ram did not turn into votes for the BJP. That may be a reflection on the BJP's candidates. Or more.

----

[Ambar]

Plan A was to get a super majority and put in place all the hard decisions easily.

Plan B could be to get a few emotive decisions that could be a rallying point within 2 years. For e.g.:
1. Retaking PoK
2. Hindu religious places autonomy
3. NRC
4. Conviction/ punishment of big time crooks, especially in opposition parties .
5. Mathura/ Kashi etc.
6. One nation, one voting.

and then have a midterm poll that will return BJP in a thumping majority and then take up all the hard decisions.

How will any of those big ticket items listed under 'Plan B' sit with TDP/JDU ? Secondly, after failing to get a simple majority, why should BJP double down on hindutva when they faced heavy defeat in a place like Ayodhya just 3 months after the temple innaugration? The path ahead is not easy. What the results have done is made it clear that in India neither development nor dharma will get you votes, it is all about caste arithmetic and "feelings"!

[Vayutuvan]

> . Full counting of VVPT slips is the only solution, if BJP wants to win the next elections.

How do they game the full VVPAT counting of 5% or something like that of randomly chosen polling stations?

Who chose "random" 5%? Civil servants! How "random" is random?

[sanman]

Plan A was to get a super majority and put in place all the hard decisions easily.

Plan B could be to get a few emotive decisions that could be a rallying point within 2 years. For e.g.:
1. Retaking PoK

Lowly aam aadmi shuffling through the dirt wouldn't vote for BJP even if they recaptured all of PoK.
Lowly aam aadmi only cares about getting a job.

2. Hindu religious places autonomy

Still won't get enough votes, only just a small token amoun.t
Aam aadmi wants someone to hand them a job.

3. NRC

Aam aadmi doesn't care about survival of the country.
He only cares about his own personal survival, by getting a job.
Aam aadmi is not a long term thinker, and only thinks of immediately feeding himself.

4. Conviction/ punishment of big time crooks, especially in opposition parties .

Aam aadmi doesn't care about criminality or about the health of society.
Aam aadmi only cares about himself. If he doesn't get a job, he will vote for anyone else, including criminals.

5. Mathura/ Kashi etc.

Still doesn't give anyone a job.

6. One nation, one voting.

These are things that matter to politicians.
Aam aadmi couldn't care less about the benefits of One-nation-one-election, if they don't see any connection to a job.

and then have a midterm poll that will return BJP in a thumping majority and then take up all the hard decisions.

First hard decisions should have been focused on somehow creating jobs - because aam aadmi doesn't care about anything else.

[vimal]

^^ first decision should be to start the process of redrawing constituency lines and selecting on the basis of win probability.

People don’t care about jobs or mandir but they care about tribal loyalty called caste.

If people cared about jobs and vikas Amethi and Ayodhya should’ve been in BJP’s kitty and peacefuls would be voting for Modi.

You clearly have no clue about UP or north India in general.

[RCase]

Plan A was to get a super majority and put in place all the hard decisions easily.

Plan B could be to get a few emotive decisions that could be a rallying point within 2 years. For e.g.:
1. Retaking PoK
...

How will any of those big ticket items listed under 'Plan B' sit with TDP/JDU ? Secondly, after failing to get a simple majority, why should BJP double down on hindutva when they faced heavy defeat in a place like Ayodhya just 3 months after the temple innaugration? The path ahead is not easy. What the results have done is made it clear that in India neither development nor dharma will get you votes, it is all about caste arithmetic and "feelings"!

There were rumblings of PoK take back. This is not a hindutva issue, but is a universal appeal across the country. Similarities will be drawn to IG after 1971.

[Amber G.]

Just as PM Modi's popularity did not rub off on to the BJP, shraddha in Sri Ram did not turn into votes for the BJP. That may be a reflection ...

Some thing to reflect (HT to few twitter threads):
First hearty congratulation to my hero Sri Modiji..
But responsibility also goes to people..

Who is to blame:

232+ for one who doesn't know what he speaks. DON'T BLAME PEOPLE??