Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 14:09

The s300+ systems feature large missiles and not designed for ground hugging cruise missiles. The pantsyr tunguska and tor which protect the big sams are meant for that...esp the tor which can ripple fire salvos and proven to take down low flyers. But syria has none of these.

Due to loitering ability though 60 missiles took 14 mins to fire the earlier missiles flew some longer paths or loops to reach target all in 2 mins. Thats a lot for sams to handle even the small pantsyr at hymenim if it be attacked....multiple pantsyr and tor launchers would be needed followed by ak630 type ciws.....

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 14:12

Thawk has many warhead type incl bomblets. I believe small pre fragged bomblets were used to get the parked ac sam and fuel tankers instead of large shaped charges meant for concrete hence the lack of structural damage

A thawk at 850kmph and 450kg shaped charge is a formidable penetrator if needed. Videos are on youtube

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 08 Apr 2017 14:55

Singha wrote:The s300+ systems feature large missiles and not designed for ground hugging cruise missiles. The pantsyr tunguska and tor which protect the big sams are meant for that...esp the tor which can ripple fire salvos and proven to take down low flyers. But syria has none of these.

Due to loitering ability though 60 missiles took 14 mins to fire the earlier missiles flew some longer paths or loops to reach target all in 2 mins. Thats a lot for sams to handle even the small pantsyr at hymenim if it be attacked....multiple pantsyr and tor launchers would be needed followed by ak630 type ciws.....

Hunting cruise missiles (some UAV classes fall in this category as well) is not only an interceptor challenge but also a sensor challenge since you run into physics and horizon issues. You may have uber sensors, large antenna, high power radars that can provide 300+ km of range but if the target is only flying at say 2000-2500 feet your horizon is limited to 100-120 odd km. If they are terrain hugging as the TLAM is capable of doing (with the duration of that depending upon the overall range to target and flight profile) than you are essentially looking at sensor horizon of 50 or less km. An S300 isn't going to be able to do a lot by itself unless the cruise missiles happens to fly right through its envelope.

You run into the same issues with TVM/SAGG interceptors which perform best when mated to their fire control radars so require a line of sight link to be fully effective. Then on top of this your cruise missiles can be programed to attack from all sides even for the same set of targets you really need some highly capable (ability to handle saturation) short range defenses that have active end game missiles. Plus you need highly trained crews to man them.

Singha wrote:The pantsyr tunguska and tor which protect the big sams are meant for that...esp the tor which can ripple fire salvos and proven to take down low flyers. But syria has none of these.

https://southfront.org/syrian-air-defen ... 1-systems/

Syria has begun taking deliveries of the Russian 96K6 Pantsir-S1 self-propelled short-range gun/surface-to-air missile air-defence system some four years after a contract for 36 systems was signed, Russia's independent Interfax-AVN military news agency reported on 21 August.

Instrument Design Bureau (KBP) deputy director-general Yuriy Savenkov told Interfax that the United Arab Emirates has also taken deliveries of some of the 50 systems it ordered, where they are now on "combat alert duty".

The Pantsir system would also enter service in Russia "towards the end of the year", Savenkov added.

Other clients for Pantsir include Jordan, where range trials were conducted in 2007, and Algeria, which had ordered 38 units by that year.

Production delays stalled deliveries of Pantsir to the UAE, which by 2007 had received only the first two serially produced systems from the 50 it had ordered. All systems for the UAE were to be supplied on 8x8 wheeled platforms acquired from MAN trucks.

A source close to the Syrian contract told Jane's in 2007 that Iran would acquire at least 10 of the systems bound for Syria as a derivative of the deal and would part-finance the Syrian acquisition to recompense Damascus for its compliance in the deal. Syria at the time was understood to be receiving the Pantsir-S1E equipped with what was at the time the latest Roman I-Band fire-control radar. The deal was believed in 2007 to be worth an estimated USD730 million. ~ Lauren Gelfand JDW Middle East/Africa Editor August/2009

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Apr 2017 15:08

The bases that was attacked only had Kub SA-6 , Atleast the left over images shows SA-6 , 1 got destroyed 2 remained intact.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Apr 2017 15:10

this is ridiculous , Pentagon is investigating if Russia was part of Chemical Attack

US investigates possible Russia role in Syria chemical attack

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/07/world ... index.html

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 15:21

imo regimes like Assad tend to keep their best assets around the capital in a anti-coup kind of play so we are unlikely to see the best syrian systems guarding a base that is not of political value. some of the best tooled republican guard units have never fought outside the damascus suburbs so far.

anyway as you said, 60 missiles is a lot even for the best SRSAM umbrella to handle. Syrian countryside has a lot of small hills mixed in with farmland in hama idlib aleppo .siting the radars and EO systems on these hills like khan touman in aleppo or the palmyra citadel will permit a better view of airborne targets moving around. a mast can only up so far.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 15:22

Austin wrote:this is ridiculous , Pentagon is investigating if Russia was part of Chemical Attack

US investigates possible Russia role in Syria chemical attack

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/07/world ... index.html

once the kangaroo court passes the expected verdict tonight, hopefully tomorrow one of the DDGs which has gone back to port for reload will unleash another 50 on hymenim and another 50 up north to engels AFB saratov with Erdogan waving a red flag as the missiles fly up the bosporus , followed by a quick cut and run into the basement to ride out whatever happens next and emerge to lord it over the ruins

in reality methinks they will declare a russi onsite general or two as a 'war criminal'

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 08 Apr 2017 15:30

Singha wrote: anyway as you said, 60 missiles is a lot even for the best SRSAM umbrella to handle. Syrian countryside has a lot of small hills mixed in with farmland in hama idlib aleppo .siting the radars and EO systems on these hills like khan touman in aleppo or the palmyra citadel will permit a better view of airborne targets moving around. a mast can only up so far.

That really depends what hight we are talking about. If I were to place my radar atop of a 300 foot building in a desert my ability to see something flying at 500 ft gets to about 90 km but against something that is terrain hugging over a desert you are going to get significantly less than that. When we come to hills etc you run into issues of distance between the hill and the bases or assets/infra etc that you are protecting. If it is farther away than you need more expensive and bulky short range interceptors etc so its all a variable. Hunting cruise missiles over open territory is an extremely challenging task. As an AEGIS commander once said Subsonic Cruise missiles (essentially smart UAV's these days) stress your sensors and networks while supersonic cruise and ballistic missiles test your interceptors. This is a challenge very few are very well prepared to handle effectively.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Apr 2017 15:32

^^ You are right , They are already proposing a Hybrid Tribunal for Syria

Rubio calls for indictment of Putin and Assad: 'Putin is a war criminal who is assisting another war criminal'

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/05 ... st-go.html

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Apr 2017 15:38

Only Egypt and Iraq , Iran has called for independent investigation for the Chemical Attack , The rest of Ummah agrees with US that it was Assad

So as far as Syria goes in ME only Iran , Iraq , Egpyt provide support perhaps Lebanon

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 08 Apr 2017 15:42

Has Egypt and Iraq officially provided support vis-a-vis the CW allegations and the subsequent TLAM strike?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Apr 2017 16:19

brar_w wrote:Has Egypt and Iraq officially provided support vis-a-vis the CW allegations and the subsequent TLAM strike?

They asked for independent investigation of the incident before blaming on Assad

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 08 Apr 2017 16:24

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Apr 2017 16:32

What is interesting is was El Sisi says 2 days back in Interview to Fox , He clearly says Assad did not bring Jihadist to syria

http://video.foxnews.com/v/538641226300 ... show-clips

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 17:52

Leith Abou Fadel‏Verified account @leithfadel 25m25 minutes ago
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Breaking: US airstrike kills 20+ civilians in west Raqqa. Many children among the dead.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 17:53

photo of CW containers at the airbase which were destroyed by UN inspectors in the "deal" earlier

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 18:00

one of the saa men who was killed. clearly a SAM or radar officer

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 18:03

this in interior of the SA6 successor the Buk. broadly similar

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 18:06

maybe the SAMs got a few shots off, being warned by the coastal radars and some thawks fell on nearby towns due to hit or lost thier way on own and crashed

iad tawil‏ @iadtawil Apr 7
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#US aggression killed 7 officers in the airbase,
9 civilians including 4 kids in the towns of Shayrat, Hamrat and Manzoul.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 18:14

маяковский‏ @moscow_ghost 20h20 hours ago
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Replying to @moscow_ghost
The *widespread (unverified) reports* meme is starting all over again

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 18:14

маяковский‏ @moscow_ghost 20h20 hours ago
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Replying to @moscow_ghost
Trump is caught: there is no possible way he can backtrack now from regime change.
Sadly, it looks like ordinary Syrians will pay the price.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 18:15

so far no clarity on where the missing thawks went or fell into sea or number launched is inflated or russians missed counting them all etc ....

one lone claim with no credible pic of saa AD units over tartous shoot down a few

there was a chinese poster on brf more than a decade ago who correctly predicted the next set of wars with begin with showers of cruise missiles at treetop level

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 18:29

Doloroso‏ @Pyrmha108 Apr 6
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Apaches - Tomahawks - Yanks have a strange way of commemorating the genocides they committed

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 21:05

The deal brokered by Qatar to evac madaya and zabadani vs fuah and kafraya again torn by aq

Southfront
HTS also resumed its targeting of civilians inside the besieged villages of Kafraya and Foua’a in the province of Idlib with rockets after announcing the abortion of the supposed evacuation agreement

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 08 Apr 2017 22:30

... Trump looks defeated and uncharacteristically humbled in recent appearances. How did the Deep State get to him? Was it as simple as threatening his wife and family? The US Deep State certainly has no shortage of Islamic terrorists on the payroll and can obviously compromise the Secret Service whenever they need to. They could take him or his family out and totally get away with it. Trump may have simply realized what every US president realizes shortly after getting sworn in: The Deep State is omnipotent and cannot be denied.

The situation is much like Pakistan with its impotent civilian govts and their relationship to the PA/ISI.

Jayram · Post by **Jayram** » 08 Apr 2017 22:46

One question how much advance notice did Russians have from the US and how specific was it? And if so why was not communicated to the Syrian AF? Kinda strange how US has to let Russia know before hand and yet has to maitain the element of surprise? What is the protocol here? Is it like Japan letting (or not letting )US know the midnight hour before attacking Pearl Harbor? Not time to react but enough to prevent WWIII?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Apr 2017 23:59

BEIRUT, LEBANON (5:20 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army’s Regiment 54 targeted a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft flying over the Al-Qamishli countryside in northeastern Syria, local activists reported this evening.

“Regiment 54 of the Syrian Army’s Special Forces forced an American reconnaissance plane to flee the area after approaching the army’s positions in Al-Qamishli,” the local activists claimed.

While this report is still unconfirmed, the Russians did cancel out their non-aggression pact with the U.S. in Syria, which would make any Coalition aircraft a legitimate target for the Syrian military and their allies.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 09 Apr 2017 01:30

Jayram wrote:One question how much advance notice did Russians have from the US and how specific was it?

SeeEnnEnn says 1 hour. Probably gave airbase location and type of weapons coming in. Which is why the dead are SAM operators - brave men who stood their posts defending their country. Surely the first wave of missiles targeted the radars and the SAMs/high-velocity AA gun positions.
Beyond that the raid was largely symbolic. Blew up ancient Mig23s and petrol stores to create nice optics.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 09 Apr 2017 01:32

Local activist? Who? Someone sitting in say, Frankfort?

No MSM report on Syria can be now believed as all are being generated for moulding the public opinion in the West.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Apr 2017 01:36

White helmets are the local cats paws.

Eerie quiet now. Plans must be afoot for another incident or two to unilaterally declare a nfz for syaf..but will it stop the ruaf from bombing idlib...i doubt

Putins best jabab is perhaps shiploads of heavy weapons to give syrians the edge and shift from 250lb to 1500lb contractor grade munitions...most jihadi dens are now camouflaged and underground

A line of pita towns in west aleppo viz anadan huraytan etc were hammered by russians n times to no real effect. They remain jihadi quillas with firm ramparts

Putin needs his thinking cap how to roll over west aleppo hard shell of the jihad. Has to dig deep probably into 5000kg type fat blu monsters

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2017 01:38

Jayram wrote:One question how much advance notice did Russians have from the US and how specific was it? And if so why was not communicated to the Syrian AF? Kinda strange how US has to let Russia know before hand and yet has to maitain the element of surprise? What is the protocol here? Is it like Japan letting (or not letting )US know the midnight hour before attacking Pearl Harbor? Not time to react but enough to prevent WWIII?

UK Daily Mail says 30 mins notice given to Russia via military hotline.
Concern was to avoid Russian casualties as they were stationed at the airfield.
DM also says Syria claims to have evacuated a number of potential airbase as theyou expected some strike after rhetoric.
60 THawks need some detailed target coordinate uploading.
I would think this is in works for some time before the
news of gas attack.
The Syrians say total attack was 30 minutes duration. Most likely the 60 were launched at 30 sec intervals. One fell in sea per US.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 09 Apr 2017 01:39

NFZ is now going to come. The reports of the attack on Rec Con drone are created for that purpose only. Someone like MacCain will now demand it.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Apr 2017 01:42

Mccain has been demanding ww3 from gw2 era. Even trump used to laugh at him.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 09 Apr 2017 01:45

http://thehill.com/homenews/administrat ... ian-regime

The Master has spoken.

I thought MacCain will make a good President when he contested against Obomber. Shows how idiotic I was.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 09 Apr 2017 02:00

asaad might want to be a wee bit more circumspect in how he conducts the war or deals with the trumspster.

...just sayin'........not making any predictions or anything....

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Apr 2017 02:08

The world awaits captain americas next move.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 09 Apr 2017 02:43

I wonder what happens if PeeAllSee sends Air Force to Syria. Say 1000 planes.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 09 Apr 2017 03:17

Britain backs Donald Trump’s airstrikes as an ‘appropriate response’ to Syrian regime’s ‘barbaric’ chemical attack
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3277303/b ... al-attack/

I propose an addendum to Ambrose Bierce's The Devil's Dictionary:

Psittacosis, An English disease.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Apr 2017 04:20

Economic times:: read the link...it says runway very thick and could be repaired quickly so it was not targeted

WASHINGTON/PALM BEACH: The US will soon impose more sanctions on Syria in response to a chemical attack blamed on President Bashar al-Assad's regime after an "overwhelming" successful military operation, the Trump administration officials said today.

"We will be announcing additional sanctions on Syria as part of our ongoing effort to stop this type of activity and emphasise how significant we view this," Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said from President Donald Trump's golf re ..

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 09 Apr 2017 05:08

As I had mentioned earlier even the very first COCOM statement did not mention the runways as a target. The TLAM is not a runway denial weapon. Runway denial is also something that you have to tactically sustain since there are rapid runway repair techniques especially given the SGR that the Syrians are likely to demand from this air base given their limited capability.