2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[Dumal]

Werent they demanding MSP for the stubble itself? So government collects from each field and they get money for it?

There have been some machinary designed to yank out the stubble and buying these is one of the solutions. The question is farmers, especially the smaller ones don't want to or can't invest the 20k or whatever it costs and instead they want the government to supply those. The other side of the argument is that if the stubble pulled out can then be used to generate power or used as mulch etc and the farmers can sell it and that would add to payback of the investment into the machine. Here, the feeling may be that they can extract more out of the government if there were to be an MSP-like structure than dealing with the open market. Government getting involved as we well know is a slippery slope that we can never get out of.

[Manish_P]

Apart from a decidedly political colorization, this stubble burning activity has now acquired all the characteristics of a blackmailing strategy, just like the "farmer's protests" and this is another tactical foray in a long line of such tactical adventures leading up to the crucial UP elections

...

the pollution over dilli is the economic threat that they are holding out because publicity generating embassies and international presstitutes operate out of dilli, thus ensuring that this visible and deliberately created pollution sends out a strong message that is publicized on the many anti India fora which are more than happy to showcase this

The stubble burnings are media coordinated, activist driven, and FFNGO funded just like the "farmer's agitations" are.

+1

and Me-Lords approved.. note the 'We are from a farming background too' comments of the CJI and other member of the judiciary

[ManSingh]

Not sure about Haryana and U.P.

In Punjab there is a law that prevents sowing paddy crop before end of June which coincides with the first pre-monsoon showers. This is done for water conservation. This leaves a very small window between harvesting of paddy and sowing of wheat. Even smaller if there is a potato crop in between. The wheat crop can not be delayed as grains shrivel in extreme heat of May. Also fire risk multiplies towards the end of wheat cycle and the earlier it is harvested the better.

Rice stubble takes longer to decompose than wheat stubble. It is also not considered an appropriate choice of fodder. There are machines owned by some farmers that can take care of stubble. They are either beyond reach of marginal farmers and there is a long wait time to rent these in peak harvest season. Supreme court guideline exists to pay farmers 2400 per acre for this purpose but it is never paid by state/central govts. There is no policy framework on how it will be paid.

Stubble collection can be a short term policy but the better option is to end paddy cultivation in North West India. It is not ecologically sustainable. How this will be achieved is another headache.

Stubble burning contributes between around 15-20% to smog conditions. There are other factors to be considered as well. Industrialization, farm land conversion, growth of highways have massively depleted forest cover in the gangetic plains. In some areas it is less than 5% as against the required 30%. The weather at this time of the year plays a devils role as well.

[nandakumar]

stubble burning

Not an expert at this, but having had similar doubts, the clarity I got from reading about the details are this:

It is not about the straw. As much of the "stem" that can be sliced down by their harvesting machines will be cut off and removed from the fields alongwith the grains and will be re-used as cattle feed or whatever else.

The problem is the stubble that is a few centimetres of the lower part of the stem attached to the soil by the roots. In other parts of the country, it will be just ploughed in mostly and will become composted over the intervening period before the next planting season.

However, in the problem areas, especially Punjab, apparently the planting seasons are such that they can plant and harvest two crops with very little time in between, such as a couple of weeks or at most a month. This doesn't allow enough time for allowing the stubble to work itself into compost etc. So, ever since the short crop cycles began to catch on, the farmers resorted to the short-cut clearance of their fields by just burning the stubble.

Just what I understood...

The harvester machines don't cut the paddy as deep as human hands can with a sickle. The result is a relatively tall stubble which can't be ploughed back into the field. It still might have been possible if not for the fact that the fact that the Wheat sowing has to begin within a short time of harvesting paddy so that wheat can be brought in to the market by April. Compounding the problem is the fact that Punjab Haryana buffaloes haven't taken a liking to the paddy straw!

[vijayk]

https://www.firstpost.com/politics/how- ... 44561.html
ow BJP’s ‘stuck-in-old’ type electioneering may cost Yogi Adityanath dearly in Uttar Pradesh polls
Yogi Adityanath has done well as chief minister of Uttar Pradesh and it is a matter of shame if the BJP cannot capitalise on that

While the BJP seems to be taking no chances in exploring various political alliances and ties-ups, it is its failure in utilising advanced electioneering techniques that might make things difficult for the saffron party in the 2022 polls. It seems the BJP wants to prove that professional election management teams using modern marketing techniques have little influence on the voter.

Most BJP elections are nevertheless managed by dedicated party workers, but let’s face it they are no match to professional election management techniques used by the likes of Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC) plush with hundreds of crores of rupees. Most political parties have realised the strength of this propaganda-type of electioneering management and hired some of the top talents in the country using advanced technologies to capture the minds of voters.

Elections are a perception game.

It is not about what you did but what voters perceive what you did. It is about capturing what is in the mind of voters and giving the impression that you will address them in full earnest if given their vote. This is not to say the money power used to woo voters by corrupt politicians has no influence.

What is stopping the BJP from creating a Yogi Adityanath app, or coming out with powerful songs/memes on what the UP Chief Minister has done in the last five years, how it was before he was chief minister, and how it has improved. There are 300 MLAs who should be campaigning, bringing attention to voters with video walls on how bad things were and how much it changed in every village. There are many such ideas if we involve bright minds and develop them.

In the 1984 US presidential election campaign, Ronald Reagan, who was seeking his second term, used just one line that propelled him to easy win: “Are you not better than you were four years ago?” Yogi Adityanath has well during his five-year term and it is a matter of shame if the BJP cannot capitalise on that.

Will the party step up its campaign now? If not, it will have only itself to blame.

https://www.firstpost.com/politics/amit ... 31261.html
Amit Shah's masterclass, river yatras, social media outreach: How BJP is wooing UP ahead of Assembly polls in 2022
The home minister will visit Varanasi today during which he will interact with nearly 700 leaders and review the preparations for the polls, scheduled for early next year

The BJP's social media team is also campaigning for a return to power. As per reported information, BJP video vans are rolling out to UP villages from 11 November and they will display 30-minute-long films highlighting the achievements of the Yogi Adityanath government.

Moreover, cartoons and aggressive messaging will be rolled out on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Catchy songs will sing Adityanath’s tunes to counter the Opposition, ensuring that their voice and presence remains the loudest and the strongest.

As the BJP leaves no stone unturned, one thing is certain that the UP Assembly polls will be a firecracker of an election and will grab the most headlines and eyeballs.

2 different opinions ... don't know what to make of it...

I don't want them to end up like Maharashtra

[greatde]

Last 2 years, state elections pre-poll opinions have over-estimated BJP. Be it MH, HY, WB, BH. I fail to see how UP will be any different, it's a tough fight.

The voter turnout has decreased relative to LS 2019, and that is the biggest issue for me. There is some disillusionment around. Personally, even my UP family members who voted for BJP, will likely will not vote, else NOTA. And if I debate with them, it's the sab choor hai, or the let's not talk about politics attitude. You need to lead the turnout to win elections, and I don't see that on the ground for BJP...

[nachiket]

2 different opinions ... don't know what to make of it...

I don't want them to end up like Maharashtra

How will they end up like MH? They don't have a big ally in UP to backstab them. They will sink or swim on their own.

[vijayk]

Last 2 years, state elections pre-poll opinions have over-estimated BJP. Be it MH, HY, WB, BH. I fail to see how UP will be any different, it's a tough fight.

The voter turnout has decreased relative to LS 2019, and that is the biggest issue for me. There is some disillusionment around. Personally, even my UP family members who voted for BJP, will likely will not vote, else NOTA. And if I debate with them, it's the sab choor hai, or the let's not talk about politics attitude. You need to lead the turnout to win elections, and I don't see that on the ground for BJP...

This is quite depressing especially with all the hard work and development Yogiji is putting .. If BJP does not see this, that will be a huge problem

[vijayk]

The Uttar Pradesh Index
@theupindex
This is no less beautiful than a Purvanchal Expressway and is as important as that.

Water Expressway of Bundelkhand ~ Arjun Sahayak Project ~ is getting inaugurated tomorrow by PM Modi.

Historic day for lakhs of farmers & their families.

https://twitter.com/theupindex/status/1 ... 1207967744

Check the video

[vijayk]

Joseph T Noony @JoeAgneya
All expensive attempts by the US to 'plant the seeds' of democracy & rule of law in a certain class of theocracies have failed miserably. Afghanistan being most recent. Can these sepoys who 'judge' Indian democracy everyday redirect their wisdom at these strange countries?

Bakshi @kabadi_wala_
Replying to @JoeAgneya

Do not mistake comparing India with them. India is a Work In progress.
Given the fact that the Church-NGO-CIA TRIAD enjoy unfettered access to Indian hinterlands, parliamentarians & Delhi Circles combined with a pliant urban populace thoroughly immersed

Bakshi @kabadi_wala_

in ‘Secularised-education’ evoking self-hatred & inculcating inferior mindset, & distancing its own children from their roots;
India is a very potent Project & will yield favourable results in long term.

[Cyrano]

Elections are a perception game.

It is not about what you did but what voters perceive what you did. It is about capturing what is in the mind of voters and giving the impression that you will address them in full earnest if given their vote.

Absolutely! Corupt Govts do this as a matter of vital necessity to not lose power lest the next Govt starts unearthing their corruption.

But that in no way implies honest & hard working Govts need to do any less in actively managing voter's perception.

Yogi & BJP should be all guns firing, leave nothing to chance.

[Ambar]

Last 2 years, state elections pre-poll opinions have over-estimated BJP. Be it MH, HY, WB, BH. I fail to see how UP will be any different, it's a tough fight.

The voter turnout has decreased relative to LS 2019, and that is the biggest issue for me. There is some disillusionment around. Personally, even my UP family members who voted for BJP, will likely will not vote, else NOTA. And if I debate with them, it's the sab choor hai, or the let's not talk about politics attitude. You need to lead the turnout to win elections, and I don't see that on the ground for BJP...

This is quite depressing especially with all the hard work and development Yogiji is putting .. If BJP does not see this, that will be a huge problem

Yogi can only do so much but is handicapped by center's policies. The decision to let fuel prices and food prices spiral out of control for much of 2021 is being milked to the last drop by the opposition, and who can blame them for playing opportunistic politics ? The unseasonal rainfall this year will not help matters either as vegetables and crops get destroyed and food prices remains high. In the end voters vote based on their pain today , they don't think about the future 10 or 20 yrs from now.

Not stating anything new but one of BJP's biggest drawbacks has been its failure to build its own local/regional media ecosystem. Today from Kerala to Delhi and from Bengal to Rajasthan, the local TV stations and newspapers are extremely hostile and partisan against BJP. Atleast at the national level Republic TV and Zee TV to some extent balance the narrative but at local level it is still the INC/regional party loyalists who run most TV channels and newspapers. In UP there are two things that need to click for BJP to get a majority - BSP should retain its core vote base + its muslim loyalists and not allow them to drift to SaPa, secondly, BJP should hope Owaisi pulls a rabbit from his hat and dents SaPa's muslim votebank in the 100 seats AIMIM is contesting. Last but not the least it is anyone's guess how things will turn out in western UP where the jats have been mislead by khalistanis and Rakesh Dakait goons.

[greatde]

Last 2 years, state elections pre-poll opinions have over-estimated BJP. Be it MH, HY, WB, BH. I fail to see how UP will be any different, it's a tough fight.

The voter turnout has decreased relative to LS 2019, and that is the biggest issue for me. There is some disillusionment around. Personally, even my UP family members who voted for BJP, will likely will not vote, else NOTA. And if I debate with them, it's the sab choor hai, or the let's not talk about politics attitude. You need to lead the turnout to win elections, and I don't see that on the ground for BJP...

This is quite depressing especially with all the hard work and development Yogiji is putting .. If BJP does not see this, that will be a huge problem

BJP lost the LS 2004 on "shining India", so "shining UP" itself won't work here. The emotional appeal is needed, and that includes the "fear factor" that the opponent might win. I don't see the hate or fear of SP/BSP among the voters. Is it the chahta hai attitude? Weak memory?

BJP needs higher voter turnout ...

[banrjeer]

Werent they demanding MSP for the stubble itself? So government collects from each field and they get money for it?

There have been some machinary designed to yank out the stubble and buying these is one of the solutions. The question is farmers, especially the smaller ones don't want to or can't invest the 20k or whatever it costs and instead they want the government to supply those. The other side of the argument is that if the stubble pulled out can then be used to generate power or used as mulch etc and the farmers can sell it and that would add to payback of the investment into the machine. Here, the feeling may be that they can extract more out of the government if there were to be an MSP-like structure than dealing with the open market. Government getting involved as we well know is a slippery slope that we can never get out of.

It's not a solved problem AFAIK. Paddy stubble is not a great fuel. It chokes the incinerators in gasifiers.

[shravanp]

This is quite depressing especially with all the hard work and development Yogiji is putting .. If BJP does not see this, that will be a huge problem

BJP lost the LS 2004 on "shining India", so "shining UP" itself won't work here. The emotional appeal is needed, and that includes the "fear factor" that the opponent might win. I don't see the hate or fear of SP/BSP among the voters. Is it the chahta hai attitude? Weak memory?

BJP needs higher voter turnout ...

I think the formula is neither "UP Shining" approach nor is "hate or fear of Sp/Bsp". Its the mode and delivery of those two approaches that matter.

Both of those approach are bound to fail and boomerang if BJP goes around trumpeting across loudspeakers. On the other hand, police encountering thugs, demolishing illegal properties, cop car turning topsy turvy and such disciplining approach is indirectly conveying to aam janta that be fearful of SP/BSP because all those at the receiving end now belong to SP/BSP. IMHO, there's nothing more for Yogi to do other than what he is doing now.

I would be just wary of Tikait sponsored farmer incidents. We don't want that to happen.

[V_Raman]

Farm laws repealed - WOW - UP elections are driving these decisions...

[sudarshan]

Farm laws repealed - WOW - UP elections are driving these decisions...

I'm not seeing this anywhere, do you have a link?

[Ambar]

Goes to show BJP is not confident about winning UP. Big win for BIF, BJP has a tough job explaining why they dragged it until now . This and the yet to be implemented CAA are two self inflicted wounds.

[Atmavik]

Farm laws repealed - WOW - UP elections are driving these decisions...

I'm not seeing this anywhere, do you have a link?

rNDTV

[Ambar]

Farm laws repealed - WOW - UP elections are driving these decisions...

I'm not seeing this anywhere, do you have a link?

NaMo was on TV .

[sudarshan]

^^ Hmm, very baffling. I see it on NDTV as well.

[KLNMurthy]

I'm not seeing this anywhere, do you have a link?

NaMo was on TV .

Kandahar.

Rubiya Saeed.

Farm laws repeal.

[V_Raman]

Maybe there was threat of too much violence during the campaign and they had no choice. but the writ of the state is now shaken IMO. or quid pro quo for CAA implementation or just plain electoral math. i am confused...

[Ambar]

Not really surprising.Think about UP, HR and PJ in that order. UP they need the jat votes especially if they are not confident of getting the majority, HR is a coalition with a jat centric party and PJ where BJP has less than 0 chance of winning they want to go with the Captain to dent INC. Trouble is explaining what took them an year to make this decision. The BIF have tasted blood now , so it’ll be interesting to see where they attack next .

[KLNMurthy]

Not really surprising.Think about UP, HR and PJ in that order. UP they need the jat votes especially if they are not confident of getting the majority, HR is a coalition with a jat centric party and PJ where BJP has less than 0 chance of winning they want to go with the Captain to dent INC. Trouble is explaining what took them an year to make this decision. The BIF have tasted blood now , so it’ll be interesting to see where they attack next .

Will they get the UP Jat votes now?

Or will the Jata simply raise the stakes?

[Atmavik]

BIF has won. What’s the point of winning elections now?

Protest siege of capital + me lords + media is the winning combination for BIF

[Sachin]

PM Modi repeals three controversial farm laws
If this was the case; BJP could have done it earlier. The Khalistanis, BIF have even messed up Republic Day celeberations but GoI felt every thing was fine. BJP and GoI has 'blinked'; now watch the fun. Every single law including CAA etc would now have to get annulled or amended. The BIF has found that their modus operandi works. 'Peacefools' will start similar protests with more vigour.

Trouble is explaining what took them an year to make this decision. The BIF have tasted blood now , so it’ll be interesting to see where they attack next .

Protest siege of capital + me lords + media is the winning combination for BIF

The much touted CAA is also going the same way. SDPI+PFI will start another seige in Delhi. As it is CAA Rules are still not formed. The current GoI seems to be taking one step forward and two steps back. BIF has found a scheme which works.

[Theeran]

This feels like the beginning of the end of an era. In hindsight might have been a mistake with the HM selection.

[Sicanta]

If the Gov this was the biggest issue they have had to face during their consecutive term, they are sadly mistaken. The strong man image of PM was keeping a lid over the situation boiling past the no turning point is in tatters. They will taste real blood now that BIF knows what works. If done for UP elections, different caste combinations will again rear their ugly head - each and every group will negotiate much harder for their votes. It will put BJP in an impossible situation with the balancing act. Especially Tikait - he will now be the sole arbiter for 'farmer' votes in West UP.

Who ever stopped Yogi ji from clearing the protestors in midnight should go suck lemons.

[Pratyush]

Power belong to those who know how to weild it along with everything thing that goes with it.

If they don't know how to wield it. Then they will be going the way of Manmohan Singh government. That government had also forgotten what is power and how to weild it.

[Pratyush]

This feels like the beginning of the end of an era. In hindsight might have been a mistake with the HM selection.

If the laws are repealed then it's over for 2024.

[V_Raman]

is there any precedence for this in independent India? this is a big deal. something big must have happened in the background. remember losing UP means risking stoppage of ram temple construction. so there is a lot at stake there...

[m_saini]

Very puzzled about the timing and the why of the decision. In hindsight, should've wielded power given to them at the very start before letting this thing get to where it is today.

[Cyrano]

The harvester machines don't cut the paddy as deep as human hands can with a sickle. The result is a relatively tall stubble which can't be ploughed back into the field.

And we are led to believe that farmers who can afford harvester machines cant afford a stubble removal machine, even cooperatively owned !

[VinodTK]

PM's address to the nation live updates: Three new farm laws to be repealed, PM Narendra Modi says


Amarinder Singh thanks PM Modi for announcement of repealing farm laws

[Thakur_B]

What a masterstroke by Maulana Modi !!

[Pashupatastra]

While it may look like an electoral gamble , the notion that it helps Yogi seems laughable. With the good work Yogi has done , he would not need Modi's crutches to win handsomely in UP elections. Modi Shah duo seem unsure of their position in BJP as well as Centre and seem to be following in the path of LK Advani circa 2009. While detractors may dub him Surrender Modi or worse , in reality the epithet of "Spectator Modi " may be appropriate. He and Amit Shah have blood of BJP workers of Bengal. They came , they saw and never bothered again. Feb 2019 limited action after Pakistan Air attack , ceasefire a LOC , not acknowledging Galwan attack till a furore set in , Shaheen Bagh etc. will not bear a kind testament to the legacy of a leader who won majority mandate projecting the image of a strongman. Hope the nation does not pay too heavy a price for the follies of the leaders coveting global acceptance.

[Cyrano]

Are we saying BJP & Modi are trying to win UP state elections where CM Yogi is seen by many as strong and decisive, by appearing weak and indecisive at the Centre?

The Govt has sacrificed the interests it tried to protect for all Indian farmers by giving in to the demands of a well off regional minority group allegedly representing those farmers?

NaMo has said he will initiate the repeal process in the upcoming winter session of the parliament and asked protesters to return home. They are likely to say "we'll stay mobilised until its actually done".

Has the need for these laws become less critical given MSP payments have now been routed through direct transfers?
We will know in a few days...

I get a feeling there is more to this announced repeal - the BIF are shouting victory and the Bhakts are crying gloom and doom too early.

[Sicanta]

Let's not forget the biggest stumbling block - Bureaucracy. They have seen today there will be no punitive cost for holding up any positive movement across a spectrum of issues. And few of those who do work - will go into sleep mode. Why take the danger of being marked out and risk future retaliation by fellow officers as well as any future gov. 'Gatishakti' is dead on arrival.

[m_saini]

Where are the bollytards when you legit want to see those "democracy khatre me hai" slogans but unironically